TE Jordan Matthews, CAR (1 Viewer)

[Faust]

LeSean McCoy: Jordan Matthews is best of rookie WRs

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000374457/article/lesean-mccoy-jordan-matthews-is-best-of-rookie-wrs

 

[WagesOfZin]

here's the thing. talk about catch rates and elite hands. talk about measureables. talk about whatever you want to regarding what he has done prior to being drafted by the eagles. none of it matters. all that matters is what he's doing right now...and right now he appears to be fitting right in at worst. at best, he appears to be excelling. granted he hasn't played anyone wearing a different jersey yet, but good gravy the guy looks like the real deal to this point. if you've already made up your mind that matthews is fool's gold, shame on you. you're trying to be right rather than get it right. if you're on the other end of the spectrum and you think he's the 2nd coming, well...hopefully you're right and reports to this point support your argument. let's see what he does in live action. i'm extremely optimistic at this point, but still keeping perspective.

bottom line, dude's stock is rising...deservedly. to deny such is foolish.

http://youtu.be/d29VsG35DQM

apparently you missed the part where i said "let's see what he does in live action." of course, that makes sense since you've already made your mind up.

 

[werdnoynek]

here's the thing. talk about catch rates and elite hands. talk about measureables. talk about whatever you want to regarding what he has done prior to being drafted by the eagles. none of it matters. all that matters is what he's doing right now...and right now he appears to be fitting right in at worst. at best, he appears to be excelling. granted he hasn't played anyone wearing a different jersey yet, but good gravy the guy looks like the real deal to this point. if you've already made up your mind that matthews is fool's gold, shame on you. you're trying to be right rather than get it right. if you're on the other end of the spectrum and you think he's the 2nd coming, well...hopefully you're right and reports to this point support your argument. let's see what he does in live action. i'm extremely optimistic at this point, but still keeping perspective.

bottom line, dude's stock is rising...deservedly. to deny such is foolish.

http://youtu.be/d29VsG35DQM

apparently you missed the part where i said "let's see what he does in live action." of course, that makes sense since you've already made your mind up.

I read it, but you continued with your hype rant and said the bolded... I felt the video was very fitting.

The only thing I've made my mind up on is that he'll never be an elite WR in the NFL. He just doesn't have "it" in my eyes. I'm ready to see how successful he can be though and I'm excited to see him play on somewhere other than the practice field.

 

[Milkman]

Werdnoynek's going to have all his bases covered here guys. If Matthews isn't a top 5 ish WR in the NFL by week two. He will be telling everybody how right he was. He seems to be softening a little though. Lol

 

[Abrantes]

Werdnoynek's going to have all his bases covered here guys. If Matthews isn't a top 5 ish WR in the NFL by week two. He will be telling everybody how right he was. He seems to be softening a little though. Lol

While you're getting a head start on the gloating trend already.

How'd that mega-elite Top 5 right out the gate Sammy Watkins look? They should just force feed him the ball. You know throw it up and let him go get it.

 

[werdnoynek]

Werdnoynek's going to have all his bases covered here guys. If Matthews isn't a top 5 ish WR in the NFL by week two. He will be telling everybody how right he was. He seems to be softening a little though. Lol

While you're getting a head start on the gloating trend already.

How'd that mega-elite Top 5 right out the gate Sammy Watkins look? They should just force feed him the ball. You know throw it up and let him go get it.

Well isn't that special.

I've been refraining from clicking the View it anyway? button on his ignored posts. I think I'll continue to do so.

 

[WagesOfZin]

i'll repeat it. regardless of what your opinion of matthews was prior to him being drafted, to deny that his stock is deservedly rising is foolish and symptomatic of wanting to be right rather than get it right. that's not a rant. that's not hype. that's objective observation. am i one that believes and was high on him coming out? sure. i'll own it. to this point there is nothing to tell me i was off in my assessment. at the same time i'm wasn't a believer in kelvin benjamin, yet to this point his stock is rising and for me to deny such would be foolish. even so, for both players, there is still much to be gleaned from the preseason games and remaining practices.

i want to get it right, not be right. being able to observe and re-evaluate your opinions can serve you well.

 

[Milkman]

Yeah i just know Sammy is never playing above the rim in the NFL. It's completely obvious he's not that type of athlete. Sammy still has a good shot at being a WR1 at some point.

 

[Milkman]

Werdnoynek's going to have all his bases covered here guys. If Matthews isn't a top 5 ish WR in the NFL by week two. He will be telling everybody how right he was. He seems to be softening a little though. Lol

While you're getting a head start on the gloating trend already.

How'd that mega-elite Top 5 right out the gate Sammy Watkins look? They should just force feed him the ball. You know throw it up and let him go get it.

Well isn't that special.

I've been refraining from clicking the View it anyway? button on his ignored posts. I think I'll continue to do so.

Lol you must be shook. That's the second time in a day you have made sure everybody knows you have me on ignore. Lol here's a pro tip werd...........nobody cares.

 

[werdnoynek]

i'll repeat it. regardless of what your opinion of matthews was prior to him being drafted, to deny that his stock is deservedly rising is foolish and symptomatic of wanting to be right rather than get it right. that's not a rant. that's not hype. that's objective observation. am i one that believes and was high on him coming out? sure. i'll own it. to this point there is nothing to tell me i was off in my assessment. at the same time i'm wasn't a believer in kelvin benjamin, yet to this point his stock is rising and for me to deny such would be foolish. even so, for both players, there is still much to be gleaned from the preseason games and remaining practices.

i want to get it right, not be right. being able to observe and re-evaluate your opinions can serve you well.

I'm not denying his stock is rising, I never did. People feed off of training camp fluff pieces every year like clockwork. Just because someone's stock is rising doesn't mean it's deserved. A player's, especially a rookie's, stock fluctuates all over the place during training camp and in the preseason. I tend to stick to my pre-draft observations this time of year when it comes to rookies and not feed into the hype too much. I don't completely ignore it, but that's just me. If you want to go changing your opinion of a player because of a couple of weeks of practice reports, be my guest. I'm not going to join you. I like to see a player play the NFL game against NFL players not wearing the same jerseys first.

ETA: http://youtu.be/d29VsG35DQM

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

here's the thing. talk about catch rates and elite hands. talk about measureables. talk about whatever you want to regarding what he has done prior to being drafted by the eagles. none of it matters. all that matters is what he's doing right now...and right now he appears to be fitting right in at worst. at best, he appears to be excelling. granted he hasn't played anyone wearing a different jersey yet, but good gravy the guy looks like the real deal to this point. if you've already made up your mind that matthews is fool's gold, shame on you. you're trying to be right rather than get it right. if you're on the other end of the spectrum and you think he's the 2nd coming, well...hopefully you're right and reports to this point support your argument. let's see what he does in live action. i'm extremely optimistic at this point, but still keeping perspective.

bottom line, dude's stock is rising...deservedly. to deny such is foolish.

http://youtu.be/d29VsG35DQM

Although, I am one of the Matthews supporters, this video is a classic and totally relevant to the last few pages of this thread. Bravo.

I've probably seen this 40 times over the years and it NEVER gets old.

 

[WagesOfZin]

yeah. cuz i didn't mention multiple times about reserving judgement and seeing players play in actual games. where is the facepalm button on this forum anyway?

i think i've made my point here.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

Some of you guys take this forum too seriously. I approach my conversations like I do with my buddies. I know nonverbal communication is invisible on a message board, but still… we talkin' about a message board. This isn't the board room or the court room… we talkin' about a message board.

 

[werdnoynek]

yeah. cuz i didn't mention multiple times about reserving judgement and seeing players play in actual games. where is the facepalm button on this forum anyway?

i think i've made my point here.

You did mention that, multiple times and again, I never suggested otherwise... what was your point?

 

[WagesOfZin]

. If you want to go changing your opinion of a player because of a couple of weeks of practice reports, be my guest. I'm not going to join you. I like to see a player play the NFL game against NFL players not wearing the same jerseys first.

ETA: http://youtu.be/d29VsG35DQM

you did suggest otherwise. it's all good. continuing this banter won't add anything to the thread at this stage.

 

[werdnoynek]

. If you want to go changing your opinion of a player because of a couple of weeks of practice reports, be my guest. I'm not going to join you. I like to see a player play the NFL game against NFL players not wearing the same jerseys first.

ETA: http://youtu.be/d29VsG35DQM

you did suggest otherwise. it's all good. continuing this banter won't add anything to the thread at this stage.

What I was suggesting was that you said his stock was rising and that was the "bottom line"... you certainly did say that he hasn't played a single down in an actual NFL game and I wasn't disputing that... but by saying his stock is rising and that's the "bottom line", you made it sound like it just doesn't matter that he hasn't played in actual game. I believe it does.

I think we could have a decent discussion about how much stock we should put into NFL training camp reports and preseason, but this thread isn't the place.

Side note: I think maybe someone should ask Bloom nicely if he'll change the title. It must feel strange hyping Matthews in an anti-Matthews titled thread does it not?

 

[Milkman]

If you were high on Matthews before the draft the news out of Philly should only make you more confident in your original evaluation. If you were calling him a wr 4 or worse you're probably not feeling great about your initial evaluation.

It's important to keep the thread title the way it is. Bloom is great at watching tape. It's important to note that if someone as good as he is at evaluating tape can be 100% wrong (we still don't know that obviously) what does that say for the rest of us. We all want to get better and have a higher hit rate right? So maybe we need to incorporate more advanced stats into our evaluation. Does anybody think we'll be evaluating players the same way in 50 years?

 

[FBG Moderator]

Hey guys, discussions about how rookies are doing are great for the board. But let's try to tone some of the other stuff down. Things like who is on someone's ignore list, or opinions and insults about other posters just obscure the kind of discussion we want to have here.

 

[renesauz]

What about his catch rate? Drops are already factored into that.

Catch rate is effectively 1 - drop rate - uncatchable pass rate

Why pickup the uncatchable pass rate as well if you have the more relevant data of drop rate?

Drops are already factored into that. I'm not sure how how drop rate could be more relevant if it's apart of the catch rate equation. Drop rate is a stand alone statistic that is less effective on its own. There's more to playing WR then that.

I think I understand what you are saying originally, but this seems unresponsive to my point.

It could be more effective on it's own because QB quality via uncatchable passes is ignored. If you have Tim Tebow vs. Peyton Manning throwing you the ball, you will have a lower catch rate with Tebow - but there shouldn't be much change in drop rate.

This is due to the nature of catch rate really being the aggregation of 2 things, the QB screwing up and WR screwing up. Drop rate focuses solely on WR screwups where as catch rate also absorbs the QB quality.

So why do you think that drop rate is less effective on its own?

Problem is that the WR does not then get extra credit for the one handed and otherwise acrobatic catches. Catches he makes that other WRs don't. It takes better hands to make these catches.

Further complicating things is that WR's playing with poor QBs get more poorly thrown balls. No matter how well/consistantly the rater throws out uncatchable balls, a poor QB provides more 50/50 calls, and half of 20 such calls is a lot more than half of 10 such calls. A WR with above average hands could have 8 drops on 20 balls while an average guy gets only 5 drops off 10 such balls. Without a HUGE swing in targets, the guy with above average hands could actually have a higher drop % than the average guy.

To throw yet another wrench in things, if a player plays on a generally bad team where he is a bigger focus of the game, he generally will get better coverage- more bumps to throw off his timing/route, hit more quickly when he does catch it because of double coverage and always drawing the opponents #1 CB. If you don't think those things impact a drop %, you're nuts.

IN the end, drop % is a very misleading stat that does an extremely poor job of qualifying a WRs hands on it's own, ESPECIALLY at the NCAA level. Context of QB quality, team quality, opponent quality, and unusual/acrobatic catches all need to be taken into account. Unsurprisingly, Mathews gets a bump from every one of those factors. Those arguing poor or below average hands are relying almost exclusively on "drop %"

 

[LawFitz]

What about his catch rate? Drops are already factored into that.

Catch rate is effectively 1 - drop rate - uncatchable pass rate

Why pickup the uncatchable pass rate as well if you have the more relevant data of drop rate?

Drops are already factored into that. I'm not sure how how drop rate could be more relevant if it's apart of the catch rate equation. Drop rate is a stand alone statistic that is less effective on its own. There's more to playing WR then that.

I think I understand what you are saying originally, but this seems unresponsive to my point.It could be more effective on it's own because QB quality via uncatchable passes is ignored. If you have Tim Tebow vs. Peyton Manning throwing you the ball, you will have a lower catch rate with Tebow - but there shouldn't be much change in drop rate.

This is due to the nature of catch rate really being the aggregation of 2 things, the QB screwing up and WR screwing up. Drop rate focuses solely on WR screwups where as catch rate also absorbs the QB quality.

So why do you think that drop rate is less effective on its own?

Problem is that the WR does not then get extra credit for the one handed and otherwise acrobatic catches. Catches he makes that other WRs don't. It takes better hands to make these catches.Further complicating things is that WR's playing with poor QBs get more poorly thrown balls. No matter how well/consistantly the rater throws out uncatchable balls, a poor QB provides more 50/50 calls, and half of 20 such calls is a lot more than half of 10 such calls. A WR with above average hands could have 8 drops on 20 balls while an average guy gets only 5 drops off 10 such balls. Without a HUGE swing in targets, the guy with above average hands could actually have a higher drop % than the average guy.

To throw yet another wrench in things, if a player plays on a generally bad team where he is a bigger focus of the game, he generally will get better coverage- more bumps to throw off his timing/route, hit more quickly when he does catch it because of double coverage and always drawing the opponents #1 CB. If you don't think those things impact a drop %, you're nuts.

IN the end, drop % is a very misleading stat that does an extremely poor job of qualifying a WRs hands on it's own, ESPECIALLY at the NCAA level. Context of QB quality, team quality, opponent quality, and unusual/acrobatic catches all need to be taken into account. Unsurprisingly, Mathews gets a bump from every one of those factors. Those arguing poor or below average hands are relying almost exclusively on "drop %"

My man. Amazing post.

 

[Milkman]

What about his catch rate? Drops are already factored into that.

Catch rate is effectively 1 - drop rate - uncatchable pass rate

Why pickup the uncatchable pass rate as well if you have the more relevant data of drop rate?

Drops are already factored into that. I'm not sure how how drop rate could be more relevant if it's apart of the catch rate equation. Drop rate is a stand alone statistic that is less effective on its own. There's more to playing WR then that.

I think I understand what you are saying originally, but this seems unresponsive to my point.

It could be more effective on it's own because QB quality via uncatchable passes is ignored. If you have Tim Tebow vs. Peyton Manning throwing you the ball, you will have a lower catch rate with Tebow - but there shouldn't be much change in drop rate.

This is due to the nature of catch rate really being the aggregation of 2 things, the QB screwing up and WR screwing up. Drop rate focuses solely on WR screwups where as catch rate also absorbs the QB quality.

So why do you think that drop rate is less effective on its own?

Problem is that the WR does not then get extra credit for the one handed and otherwise acrobatic catches. Catches he makes that other WRs don't. It takes better hands to make these catches.

Further complicating things is that WR's playing with poor QBs get more poorly thrown balls. No matter how well/consistantly the rater throws out uncatchable balls, a poor QB provides more 50/50 calls, and half of 20 such calls is a lot more than half of 10 such calls. A WR with above average hands could have 8 drops on 20 balls while an average guy gets only 5 drops off 10 such balls. Without a HUGE swing in targets, the guy with above average hands could actually have a higher drop % than the average guy.

To throw yet another wrench in things, if a player plays on a generally bad team where he is a bigger focus of the game, he generally will get better coverage- more bumps to throw off his timing/route, hit more quickly when he does catch it because of double coverage and always drawing the opponents #1 CB. If you don't think those things impact a drop %, you're nuts.

IN the end, drop % is a very misleading stat that does an extremely poor job of qualifying a WRs hands on it's own, ESPECIALLY at the NCAA level. Context of QB quality, team quality, opponent quality, and unusual/acrobatic catches all need to be taken into account. Unsurprisingly, Mathews gets a bump from every one of those factors. Those arguing poor or below average hands are relying almost exclusively on "drop %"

I tried to say much of this in an early post but your post came off a lot better. His hands are Larry Fitzgerald good.

 

[werdnoynek]

What about his catch rate? Drops are already factored into that.

Catch rate is effectively 1 - drop rate - uncatchable pass rate

Why pickup the uncatchable pass rate as well if you have the more relevant data of drop rate?

Drops are already factored into that. I'm not sure how how drop rate could be more relevant if it's apart of the catch rate equation. Drop rate is a stand alone statistic that is less effective on its own. There's more to playing WR then that.

I think I understand what you are saying originally, but this seems unresponsive to my point.

It could be more effective on it's own because QB quality via uncatchable passes is ignored. If you have Tim Tebow vs. Peyton Manning throwing you the ball, you will have a lower catch rate with Tebow - but there shouldn't be much change in drop rate.

This is due to the nature of catch rate really being the aggregation of 2 things, the QB screwing up and WR screwing up. Drop rate focuses solely on WR screwups where as catch rate also absorbs the QB quality.

So why do you think that drop rate is less effective on its own?

Problem is that the WR does not then get extra credit for the one handed and otherwise acrobatic catches. Catches he makes that other WRs don't. It takes better hands to make these catches.

Further complicating things is that WR's playing with poor QBs get more poorly thrown balls. No matter how well/consistantly the rater throws out uncatchable balls, a poor QB provides more 50/50 calls, and half of 20 such calls is a lot more than half of 10 such calls. A WR with above average hands could have 8 drops on 20 balls while an average guy gets only 5 drops off 10 such balls. Without a HUGE swing in targets, the guy with above average hands could actually have a higher drop % than the average guy.

To throw yet another wrench in things, if a player plays on a generally bad team where he is a bigger focus of the game, he generally will get better coverage- more bumps to throw off his timing/route, hit more quickly when he does catch it because of double coverage and always drawing the opponents #1 CB. If you don't think those things impact a drop %, you're nuts.

IN the end, drop % is a very misleading stat that does an extremely poor job of qualifying a WRs hands on it's own, ESPECIALLY at the NCAA level. Context of QB quality, team quality, opponent quality, and unusual/acrobatic catches all need to be taken into account. Unsurprisingly, Mathews gets a bump from every one of those factors. Those arguing poor or below average hands are relying almost exclusively on "drop %"

Drop % and Catch % are still quantitative values you can actually quantify and use. They quantify drops/catches, each person may define a drop differently but generally it's a catch-able ball a player failed to secure. You can try and take into account the quality of whatever you want, but a drop is still a drop and a catch is still a catch. I don't need to see that number to questions Matthew's hands, I just have to watch him play.

Off of the drops topic for a minute, I was looking at the stats here I linked earlier and was looking at NEY. It's a receiver stat where they try to take the QB out of the equation a bit:

Net Expected Yards (NEY). This is something I've been tinkering with. It's based around this premise: Let's pretend for a moment that a player's catch rate is mostly on the quarterback. The quarterback's job is to get the ball to the player, and the player's job is to gain yards. Simplistic? Absolutely. But we can make an estimate of a player's likely yards per catch based on the catch rate: higher catch rate, lower yards per catch (because of easier passes). With this figure, we determine a player's likely yards per catch, then compare it to the player's actual rate.

Net Expected Yards = Actual Receiving Yards - (Projected Yards Per Catch * Targets)

A positive NEY means the player gained more yards than projected. (The NEY/Target number, then, looks at the rate at which a player exceeds his projections.)

Matthews had a NEY of 187.5 which ranks really low on the list and a NEY / Tgt of 1.19 which is the lowest on there that I can see. This number goes to show the kind of passes he was getting - low yardage probably easily catch-able balls, the screens and such. But he didn't do much of anything with them...

Another top WR in this class got the same criticism with getting primarily short passes and screens... however his NEY was 342.8 with a NEY/tgt of 2.62. Seems like Mr Watkins was able to do much more with the opportunities he was given in similar situations.

Mike Evans absolutely crushed this stat, making me rethink him a bit. I actually think I like Matthews more than him but the guy eats when he gets the ball... and it makes sense with his size/speed.

ETA: I was trying to make sense of the RYPR and what exactly it's quantifying... they say it's answering these questions... 1) How much do you produce? 2) How important are you to your team's passing game? 3) How good is the passing game to which you are important? 4) And how much is the forward pass featured in your team's offense? What exactly does that mean to us though? Kind of puzzles me.

 

[Milkman]

Must be nice to have other weapons a defense has to account for like a running QB and WR that were drafted in this years draft.

 

[John Paul]

Practice doesn't make perfect, but perfect practice does. The greats know this and live by it. That's why I'd take Duncan over Iverson 10 out of 10 times. Iverson did not want to get better, so he didn't. He was okay with highlight plays and padded stats. He also acted like a baller in that video, that was awesome.

Wouldn't it be cool if there were a way to scout that did hit at a higher rate and didn't cop out on the 'it's a crap shoot anyways' excuse? You know, something like a Moneyball type of approach? That'd be awesome. Although scouts probably would discount it any given chance and keep saying, 'That's just not how football is done.' Oh well, it was a nice thought.

The potentially sad part is that Matthews is a value in dynast drafts and people are missing out on it because of articles like the OP. No matter how much you prove it up, people will have missed out on a player that was relatively cheap in year one that could've helped their team at a discounted price for years to come.

 

[dhockster]

What about his catch rate? Drops are already factored into that.

Catch rate is effectively 1 - drop rate - uncatchable pass rate

Why pickup the uncatchable pass rate as well if you have the more relevant data of drop rate?

Drops are already factored into that. I'm not sure how how drop rate could be more relevant if it's apart of the catch rate equation. Drop rate is a stand alone statistic that is less effective on its own. There's more to playing WR then that.

I think I understand what you are saying originally, but this seems unresponsive to my point.

It could be more effective on it's own because QB quality via uncatchable passes is ignored. If you have Tim Tebow vs. Peyton Manning throwing you the ball, you will have a lower catch rate with Tebow - but there shouldn't be much change in drop rate.

This is due to the nature of catch rate really being the aggregation of 2 things, the QB screwing up and WR screwing up. Drop rate focuses solely on WR screwups where as catch rate also absorbs the QB quality.

So why do you think that drop rate is less effective on its own?

Problem is that the WR does not then get extra credit for the one handed and otherwise acrobatic catches. Catches he makes that other WRs don't. It takes better hands to make these catches.

Further complicating things is that WR's playing with poor QBs get more poorly thrown balls. No matter how well/consistantly the rater throws out uncatchable balls, a poor QB provides more 50/50 calls, and half of 20 such calls is a lot more than half of 10 such calls. A WR with above average hands could have 8 drops on 20 balls while an average guy gets only 5 drops off 10 such balls. Without a HUGE swing in targets, the guy with above average hands could actually have a higher drop % than the average guy.

To throw yet another wrench in things, if a player plays on a generally bad team where he is a bigger focus of the game, he generally will get better coverage- more bumps to throw off his timing/route, hit more quickly when he does catch it because of double coverage and always drawing the opponents #1 CB. If you don't think those things impact a drop %, you're nuts.

IN the end, drop % is a very misleading stat that does an extremely poor job of qualifying a WRs hands on it's own, ESPECIALLY at the NCAA level. Context of QB quality, team quality, opponent quality, and unusual/acrobatic catches all need to be taken into account. Unsurprisingly, Mathews gets a bump from every one of those factors. Those arguing poor or below average hands are relying almost exclusively on "drop %"

Drop % and Catch % are still quantitative values you can actually quantify and use. They quantify drops/catches, each person may define a drop differently but generally it's a catch-able ball a player failed to secure. You can try and take into account the quality of whatever you want, but a drop is still a drop and a catch is still a catch. I don't need to see that number to questions Matthew's hands, I just have to watch him play.

Off of the drops topic for a minute, I was looking at the stats here I linked earlier and was looking at NEY. It's a receiver stat where they try to take the QB out of the equation a bit:

Net Expected Yards (NEY). This is something I've been tinkering with. It's based around this premise: Let's pretend for a moment that a player's catch rate is mostly on the quarterback. The quarterback's job is to get the ball to the player, and the player's job is to gain yards. Simplistic? Absolutely. But we can make an estimate of a player's likely yards per catch based on the catch rate: higher catch rate, lower yards per catch (because of easier passes). With this figure, we determine a player's likely yards per catch, then compare it to the player's actual rate.

Net Expected Yards = Actual Receiving Yards - (Projected Yards Per Catch * Targets)

A positive NEY means the player gained more yards than projected. (The NEY/Target number, then, looks at the rate at which a player exceeds his projections.)

Matthews had a NEY of 187.5 which ranks really low on the list and a NEY / Tgt of 1.19 which is the lowest on there that I can see. This number goes to show the kind of passes he was getting - low yardage probably easily catch-able balls, the screens and such. But he didn't do much of anything with them...

Another top WR in this class got the same criticism with getting primarily short passes and screens... however his NEY was 342.8 with a NEY/tgt of 1.19. Seems like Mr Watkins was able to do much more with the opportunities he was given in similar situations.

Mike Evans absolutely crushed this stat, making me rethink him a bit. I actually think I like Matthews more than him but the guy eats when he gets the ball... and it makes sense with his size/speed.

ETA: I was trying to make sense of the RYPR and what exactly it's quantifying... they say it's answering these questions... 1) How much do you produce? 2) How important are you to your team's passing game? 3) How good is the passing game to which you are important? 4) And how much is the forward pass featured in your team's offense? What exactly does that mean to us though? Kind of puzzles me.

Aren't the bolded the same? Did you mispost the second receivers NEY/tgt?

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/sports/eagles/If-hes-so-good-why-wasnt-Jordan-Matthews-a-first-round-pick.html

 

[werdnoynek]

What about his catch rate? Drops are already factored into that.

Catch rate is effectively 1 - drop rate - uncatchable pass rate

Why pickup the uncatchable pass rate as well if you have the more relevant data of drop rate?

Drops are already factored into that. I'm not sure how how drop rate could be more relevant if it's apart of the catch rate equation. Drop rate is a stand alone statistic that is less effective on its own. There's more to playing WR then that.

I think I understand what you are saying originally, but this seems unresponsive to my point.

It could be more effective on it's own because QB quality via uncatchable passes is ignored. If you have Tim Tebow vs. Peyton Manning throwing you the ball, you will have a lower catch rate with Tebow - but there shouldn't be much change in drop rate.

This is due to the nature of catch rate really being the aggregation of 2 things, the QB screwing up and WR screwing up. Drop rate focuses solely on WR screwups where as catch rate also absorbs the QB quality.

So why do you think that drop rate is less effective on its own?

Problem is that the WR does not then get extra credit for the one handed and otherwise acrobatic catches. Catches he makes that other WRs don't. It takes better hands to make these catches.

Further complicating things is that WR's playing with poor QBs get more poorly thrown balls. No matter how well/consistantly the rater throws out uncatchable balls, a poor QB provides more 50/50 calls, and half of 20 such calls is a lot more than half of 10 such calls. A WR with above average hands could have 8 drops on 20 balls while an average guy gets only 5 drops off 10 such balls. Without a HUGE swing in targets, the guy with above average hands could actually have a higher drop % than the average guy.

To throw yet another wrench in things, if a player plays on a generally bad team where he is a bigger focus of the game, he generally will get better coverage- more bumps to throw off his timing/route, hit more quickly when he does catch it because of double coverage and always drawing the opponents #1 CB. If you don't think those things impact a drop %, you're nuts.

IN the end, drop % is a very misleading stat that does an extremely poor job of qualifying a WRs hands on it's own, ESPECIALLY at the NCAA level. Context of QB quality, team quality, opponent quality, and unusual/acrobatic catches all need to be taken into account. Unsurprisingly, Mathews gets a bump from every one of those factors. Those arguing poor or below average hands are relying almost exclusively on "drop %"

Drop % and Catch % are still quantitative values you can actually quantify and use. They quantify drops/catches, each person may define a drop differently but generally it's a catch-able ball a player failed to secure. You can try and take into account the quality of whatever you want, but a drop is still a drop and a catch is still a catch. I don't need to see that number to questions Matthew's hands, I just have to watch him play.

Off of the drops topic for a minute, I was looking at the stats here I linked earlier and was looking at NEY. It's a receiver stat where they try to take the QB out of the equation a bit:

Net Expected Yards (NEY). This is something I've been tinkering with. It's based around this premise: Let's pretend for a moment that a player's catch rate is mostly on the quarterback. The quarterback's job is to get the ball to the player, and the player's job is to gain yards. Simplistic? Absolutely. But we can make an estimate of a player's likely yards per catch based on the catch rate: higher catch rate, lower yards per catch (because of easier passes). With this figure, we determine a player's likely yards per catch, then compare it to the player's actual rate.

Net Expected Yards = Actual Receiving Yards - (Projected Yards Per Catch * Targets)

A positive NEY means the player gained more yards than projected. (The NEY/Target number, then, looks at the rate at which a player exceeds his projections.)

Matthews had a NEY of 187.5 which ranks really low on the list and a NEY / Tgt of 1.19 which is the lowest on there that I can see. This number goes to show the kind of passes he was getting - low yardage probably easily catch-able balls, the screens and such. But he didn't do much of anything with them...

Another top WR in this class got the same criticism with getting primarily short passes and screens... however his NEY was 342.8 with a NEY/tgt of 1.19. Seems like Mr Watkins was able to do much more with the opportunities he was given in similar situations.

Mike Evans absolutely crushed this stat, making me rethink him a bit. I actually think I like Matthews more than him but the guy eats when he gets the ball... and it makes sense with his size/speed.

ETA: I was trying to make sense of the RYPR and what exactly it's quantifying... they say it's answering these questions... 1) How much do you produce? 2) How important are you to your team's passing game? 3) How good is the passing game to which you are important? 4) And how much is the forward pass featured in your team's offense? What exactly does that mean to us though? Kind of puzzles me.

Aren't the bolded the same? Did you mispost the second receivers NEY/tgt?

I did - 2.62 was Watkins NEY/tgt - good eyes!

 

[ShaHBucks]

I hope he starts slow so I can buy more when the rookie hype dies down. I didn't expect his rookie ADP to jump so much based in him killing camp.

 

[mbuehner]

I hope he starts slow so I can buy more when the rookie hype dies down. I didn't expect his rookie ADP to jump so much based in him killing camp.

Getting your wish.

 

[ShaHBucks]

I hope he starts slow so I can buy more when the rookie hype dies down. I didn't expect his rookie ADP to jump so much based in him killing camp.

Getting your wish.

Nice

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Eagles second-round pick Jordan Matthews took a step back in Friday night's preseason opener against the Bears, dropping three of his seven targets.

He finished with four catches for 14 yards. It was a rough debut for camp star Matthews, who played with the second- and third-team offenses. At the same time, it's important to remember Matthews just turned 22 last month, and on Friday night was playing against an NFL defense for the first time in his life. After dominating the SEC as a 20- and 21-year-old, we fully expect Matthews to get better game by game. He remains an exciting sleeper available in the late rounds of fantasy drafts, and is a first-round Dynasty pick.

Aug 8 - 11:03 PM

 

[jurb26]

3 drops, really? What happened to his elite hands?

 

[Milkman]

Lol his hands are fine. The funny thing is nobody was really even arguing he had bad hands. People were arguing between elite and average hands. The main knock on Jordan Matthews is that he supposedly can't beat man coverage. Looks like he got open a lot last night........

 

[Brewtown]

Not sure how this is but he actually looked bigger in his Eagles uniform than he did in college...

Hitting the weights???

 

[Khy]

Lol his hands are fine. The funny thing is nobody was really even arguing he had bad hands. People were arguing between elite and average hands. The main knock on Jordan Matthews is that he supposedly can't beat man coverage. Looks like he got open a lot last night........

I'm not sure anyone besides yourself and one or two other supporters in this thread ever once claimed Matthews to have "elite" hands. Most if not every report on him was average hands. Matthews had the worst college drop rate of pretty much any of the 1st/2nd round WRs at almost 8%. He's always had average to below average hands.

 

[Milkman]

3 drops in his first game isn't going to change my mind either.

 

[jurb26]

3 drops in his first game isn't going to change my mind either.

How many drops would change your mind?

 

[georg013]

So this guy is supposed to better than Watkins? I dont see it.

 

[Milkman]

Looks like a couple of the drops could be debatable. I haven't seen them myself. He would have had 7 catches for close to 70 yards receiving in his debut. Which would have been disgusting. Meh buy low if you can.

 

[Milkman]

3 drops in his first game isn't going to change my mind either.

How many drops would change your mind?

lol jurb it was his first NFL game. Are you serious?

 

[Milkman]

So let me turn this around. If Matthews had caught all 7 passes thrown his way would that have changed any of your minds? Lol

 

[Khy]

So let me turn this around. If Matthews had caught all 7 passes thrown his way would that have changed any of your minds? Lol

Yeah, probably? Saying "He should've had 7 rec for 70 yards in his preseason debut" is just ridiculous because he didn't. He dropped the passes. After having a very bad drop rate in college as well, this is starting to remind me of Aaron Dobson's rookie season last year.

 

[Milkman]

It shouldn't khy.

So as long as we're staying objective here it looks like Matthews got open a lot last night. Good news for Matthews owners.

 

[Khy]

It shouldn't khy.

So as long as we're staying objective here it looks like Matthews got open a lot last night. Good news for Matthews owners.

He got open a lot against 2nd and 3rd team CBs, that isn't 'that' impressive by any means. And when he did get wide open he dropped the ball. Hell, I could probably get luck and get open against Sherrick McManis too.

Also, how do you know he got open? You just wrote above that you didn't see the plays yourself. Just because he was targeted doesn't mean he was open. There's a reason Mark Sanchez isn't a starting QB anymore, cause he makes awful decisions and consistently threw the ball to guys who were blanket covered. Your blind faith is unbelievable.

 

[Milkman]

Meh first game jitters. No biggie. I'm still super excited about drafting.

 

[jurb26]

3 drops in his first game isn't going to change my mind either.

How many drops would change your mind?

lol jurb it was his first NFL game. Are you serious?

Yeah, I'm trying to gage how objective you're able to be.

 

[Milkman]

3 drops in his first game isn't going to change my mind either.

How many drops would change your mind?

lol jurb it was his first NFL game. Are you serious?

Yeah, I'm trying to gage how objective you're able to be.

Ok fair enough. If he drops balls like this all preseason I would start to question my evaluation of his hands. With that being said I've heard one of the drops may have been a bad throw and one of the drops may in fact have been a catch. I haven't seen them though. So i don't know.

For people that watched the game did Matthews play outside at all? If so did he beat man coverage on the outside where the defender got up tight in press coverage? Or were all the plays were he got open he lining up in the slot?

 

[benbadman]

As a Vanderbilt season ticket holder who saw all of Jordan's games and sat next to some family members of his the last four years, Jordan is either on the low end a player like Nate Washington a solid contributor who flashes but can't be featured in a passing offense, or on the high end a reliable target like Crabtree or Boldin.

I only recently jumped into the end of the long post, surprised to see such passionate opinions about a 2nd round pick or a 10th+ round fantasy pick.

Jordan is a hard worker. In a WSJ article about the Eagles drafting players with college Degrees like Colts and Pats, Jordan actually did his homework before meeting with the Eagles in the draft process and impressed them.

Best of luck and hopefully he is as productive as fellow Commodore Zac Stacy!

 

[WagesOfZin]

i watched bits and parts of the philly game. he looked....off. i can't say why, be it jitters or just being exposed at the next level of competition. i will say he almost had an excellent contested catch with blanket coverage but the ball was stripped out by the DB at the last second. in sum, my advice to anyone would be to hold pat at your current opinion, be it positive or negative, until there is a larger sample size.

 

[werdnoynek]

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/inq-eagles/Jordan-Matthews-on-drops-Those-were-catches-I-should-have-had.html

Jordan Matthews on drops: Those were catches I should have had

CHICAGO -- Jordan Matthews' debut didn't go quite like he imagined.

The rookie wide receiver dropped two passes, could have had another, and managed only 14 yards on four catches in the Eagles' preseason opening loss to the Bears on Friday night.

“Those were catches I should have definitely had," Matthews said. "That’s what you work each day in practice for. Those are balls that I’ve caught before in games and in practices. That’s basic concentration things.”

Matthews worked mostly out of the slot with the second and third team offenses. He dropped two throws by quarterback Mark Sanchez, including on a perfectly-thrown corner route.

"He was inconsistent," Eagles coach Chip Kelly said. "There was a ball on the sideline he could have caught. I don't know if he was pressing, but there were some inconsistencies there. Sometimes it's the first time for guys in the bright lights so they can have a chance to play that out of their system and calm down."

Matthews had been receiving praise during training camp from his coaches and teammates, including running back LeSean McCoy, who suggested the rookie could be one of the best in what is being hailed by some as the deepest class of receivers ever. He started getting more first team repetitions in recent practices.

But Matthews hasn't been perfect. He's struggled at times to get separation against starting defensive backs and has had his share of drops. Matthews has decent hands, but not great ones. He dropped a number of passes during Senior Bowl practices in January.

Despite what Kelly said about possible nerves, Matthews said the moment didn't get to him.

“It wasn’t crazy," he said. "We practice so fast that the game seemed extremely slow. It’s just going out there and making plays.”