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TE Jordan Matthews, CAR (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Sigmund Bloom
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werdnoynek
Footballguy
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
This is why drop rates are tough to evaluate. Everybody has a different number. Again nobody in this thread claimed his hands were bad.
I've been super busy the last couple days but I'm going to watch the game Wednesday. The play where he had the ball ripped out was a definite drop? I heard it could have been a catch.
I've been super busy the last couple days but I'm going to watch the game Wednesday. The play where he had the ball ripped out was a definite drop? I heard it could have been a catch.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Guys, can we just shut down the "predictions" until the 2015 season ends? This thread is getting ridiculous. Many of us have voiced our stance and the supporting arguments. I see no more benefit in dragging it out.
The effort going into proving yourselves "right" is more than a one-legged man in an a$$ kicking contest but there is no prize for your efforts. Only hours of frustration and pointless combating.
The effort going into proving yourselves "right" is more than a one-legged man in an a$$ kicking contest but there is no prize for your efforts. Only hours of frustration and pointless combating.
No drop on that one. Mathews had it in his hands but the DB had his arm between the ball and Mathews' body and they went to the ground together. It's one he "could have had" I suppose, but certainly not a drop by any stretch. Would have been an amazing catch had he held on.Milkman said:
jurb26
Footballguy
Coach Kelly disappointed.
(KFFL)Philadelphia Eagles WR Jordan Matthews caught only four passes for 14 yards in the team's first preseason game, prompting coach Chip Kelly to express disappointment. "I thought he was just inconsistent," Kelly said. "I don't know if he was pressing or whatever. But there were some inconsistencies there. Some guys, it's the first time in the bright lights. [They] get the chance to get that out of the system, get a deep breath."
(KFFL)Philadelphia Eagles WR Jordan Matthews caught only four passes for 14 yards in the team's first preseason game, prompting coach Chip Kelly to express disappointment. "I thought he was just inconsistent," Kelly said. "I don't know if he was pressing or whatever. But there were some inconsistencies there. Some guys, it's the first time in the bright lights. [They] get the chance to get that out of the system, get a deep breath."
Khy
Footballguy
Khy
Footballguy
Or you know... maybe Kelly is disappointed because they used a 2nd round pick on a guy who has done nothing but disappoint in his eyes? It's easy to see things through rose colored glasses, but he looked like crap on the tape from the game. It might have been jitters but don't make excuses, he looked like garbage. Until we see him look good I'm going to lean more to that side than the favorable side.
jurb26
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
So you're saying there is zero chance that Matthews play in camp so far raised Coach Kelly's expectations? I don't think it's out of line to think that's a possibility.
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jurb26
Footballguy
I think he had a horrible game, with 3 drops. Regardless of him being good or bad in camp a HORRIBLE game is going to draw disappointment when you are a 2nd round pick and investment. Do I think this is a death blow to Mathews? Of course not. It's one game.... In the preseason. He could have had jitters or just was off. Who knows. There's a lot of time for him to resurrect himself from this poor showing. Glossing over it the way you seem to be just seems like a biased approach. It's ok to admit he was disappointing and you hope to see him turn things around.
JetMaxx
Footballguy
Watching Hands Man Matthews drop 3, including one that went through his hands and hit him in the face, was pretty disappointing. Only one game though.
It wasnt a horrible game, he did have a couple nice snags. He got separation and ran nice routs. The drops were disappointing and it definitely was overall an underwhelming effort, but saying it was horrible leaves people with an impression that it was a disaster, which is not the case. Looked like a pretty typical rookie outing to my eyes.
Khy
Footballguy
This is my big issue, you keep trying to play it off like it wasn't that bad and you haven't even taken the 3 minutes to sit down and watch his 7 targets quick. So you're literally basing all your posts off internal bias to love the guy and nothing more.
jurb26
Footballguy
When you drop over 40% of your targets, that's horrible. Even if we go with the 2 drop number, the lowest anyone seems willing to suggest, it's near 30% drop rate. That's is also... Well horrible. Again, nobody is saying his career is over or even that he's going to bust because of this. It's one game. Let's just call it for what it is though, it was a really bad game.
werdnoynek
Footballguy
WagesOfZin
Footballguy
as disappointing as he was, martavis bryant was astronimically worse....and if i own bryant, i'm still holding also.
Milkman
Footballguy
If anybody would like to bet me that Jordan Matthews is going to have a 30% or greater drop rate let me know. Werd and Khy have first dibs on any action. I'm taking the under of course and i even lay some odds. Let me know guys.
If nobody is willing to make that bet I guess it means this single game sample is meaningless. Which it is of course.
If nobody is willing to make that bet I guess it means this single game sample is meaningless. Which it is of course.
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Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
I don't care what PFT has he most certainly dropped 3....and 2 were bad drops. The one would have been a tough catch but he had both hands on the ball all the way down to the ground.
dhockster
Footballguy
Milkman, I hope you can concede also that you seem emotionally invested in this to the point that when Matthews does poorly you gloss over it and when he does well you are in everybodies face. I want Matthews
to do well but I can concede he had a bad game.
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If you judge an outing by statistics you read somewhere you aren't going to understand what was happening. He had one bad drop that hit him in the face, another that was definitely catchable, and one that he brought down but the DB stripped out as they went to the ground. We can debate the definition of 'horrible', I suppose, but I think its more constructive to actually watch the plays multiple times, watch plays where he didnt even get thrown to, and come up with a total picture in context. He also caught 4 passes, btw. He ran good routes and found separation (against second and third team DBs mind you). That is not a really bad game given the context, it was inconsistent and disappointing, sure. If he goes out next week and catches 7 for 7 that wont mean it was a great game either. The details are whats important.
A drop consists of a play the receiver didnt make that they should have that cant be attributed to the actions of another player. A DB reaching in to strip a ball away shouldnt be a drop, its a pass defended.
It's not a drop when the defender has his hands between the WRs body and the ball the entire time. Would have been an amazing catch
jurb26
Footballguy
It's a drop if it hits the players hands. Not all drops are created equal but all players have the same situations come up where they get a "drop" that was really difficult. It's a pretty subjective thing in reality and hence some are using different numbers. I'm not sure why we are talking about these semantics anyway. He had 2 others. It's not like taking that one away changes things a great deal. Does it make you feel that much better to say he dropped 2 passes instead of 3?
Khy
Footballguy
1. You've never been on ignore
2. I'm not emotionally invested at all, I didn't like any of his tape at Vandy and I didn't think he'd be that good before or after the draft. It's not an emotional investment it's an opinion. That I haven't changed to date.
3. You are the one emotionally invested. You freaked out about him playing 2 first team downs in OTAs but glossed over the fact that he never did it again. But when he has a rather bad 1st preseason game, all of a sudden it's not a big deal and Chip was clearly disappointed because Matthews had been lighting it up in camp (a statement that has no proof short of your own random assessment of Chip's words).
You've done nothing but blindly ride Matthews jock since the beginning of this thread and I don't know that you have ever actually seen a single play of his college or pro tape.
Khy
Footballguy
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
LawFitz
Footballguy
If this is how the "official" drop metric is actually calculated, then that stat is extremely flawed. Given the inherently small sample size of drops for each player, the ratios of easy to difficult "drops" won't automatically even out when comparing different players.
jurb26
Footballguy
I'd say it is flawed in ways. Still, it's the best we have. The problem is, that pass was "catchable." It would have been a tough catch but it could have been made. Maybe by using stronger hands or by moving the ball outward, whatever. Personally, I favor sites that are harsher on drops than ones that are more forgiving. Being forgiving means you are more subjective in your approach IMO.
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Khy
Footballguy
What kind of numbers would get you to waver at all that your opinion might be wrong here? How much about Matthews do you even know short of just buying into him for seemingly no reason?
1. Matthews caught 66.54% of his passes from within 5 yards of the LoS. That's absolutely ridiculous, his high receptions were a result of high percentage passes being thrown his way and really nothing more. It's why his stat line jumps out as so impressive on paper vs SEC defenses.
2. His YAC was 7.8 at Vandy, but that's a little misleading as on his non-screen catches his YAC was only 4.7 which is pretty horrible.
3. As I said above, Matthews had a drop rate of 7.69% at Vandy. Compared to Cooks (4.69), Landry (2.50), Beckham (6.45) and Robsinson (5.43). Somehow, a guy that had 67% of his passes within 5 yards had a worse drop rate than guys like Beckham and Robinson who relied a lot more on intermediate and deep balls for their production.
4. His average catch was about 5.91 yards from the LOS. Compare that to some others from the draft and he's about 3yards under the typical average. Even Brandin Cooks who is seen by many as a Tavon Austin/Darren Sproles type averaged 8.4 yards from LOS at the point of catch.
The point is... all of this stuff accumulates to me thinking that he thrived in a system where he was just given tons of little dinks and dunks and that's really all he's good at, now he comes into Philly who already has McCoy and Sproles who can play that role better than he can. Will he fail or succeed? I'm not too sure. But some of the love of Matthews here based on his SEC stats are completely unwarranted and silly without the context that I've posted above.
Khy
Footballguy
Same, my opinion of a drop is if the pass looked catchable. If PFF isn't counting the play where the DB stripped the ball as a drop than that's ridiculous. Sorry, but a better receiver with stronger hands probably doesn't get stripped in that scenario. There are going to be a LOT of situations where he has to out muscle the DB for the ball and if he can't do that, he won't be very successful in this league.
Abrantes
Footballguy
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
WagesOfZin
Footballguy
me personally, at this stage i'm paying attention to what's going on now that he's an eagle. to this point reports out of practice have been glowing, giving reason to have a favorable prognostication of him. in the first preseason game, with my own eyes, he didn't live up to that hype....at all, giving me reason for pause. how many drops he officially had and what is deemed a drop for statistical purposes doesn't mean a thing. what i saw on the field does. i'm holding at my current positive opinion, but i'm damn sure very interested in what happens over the next few weeks and am willing to change my view if the evidence warrants it. whether had 2, 3, or 4 drops the other night, or what his college drop rate was, doesn't mean a thing to me now.
production or a lack of it on the field going forward should be your only evaluating factor for moving the needle one way or the other. this thread is a quagmire of minutia.
production or a lack of it on the field going forward should be your only evaluating factor for moving the needle one way or the other. this thread is a quagmire of minutia.
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dhockster
Footballguy
werdnoynek
Footballguy
I can see your point, but to ignore his past flaws seems odd.
Past flaws could be habits, habits that are hard to break. Habits that could prevent someone from developing into a starter or top player in the league. Habits that could prevent someone from living up to their fantasy owner's expections. Habits that probably shouldn't be ignored, especially if it's something they've done their entire career.
ETA: I'm not saying habits can't be broken...
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WagesOfZin
Footballguy
his past "flaws" and "strengths" formed my baseline opinion of him going into the draft and once he got drafted. it was pretty high. yours wasn't/isn't and that's cool. even so, that was a baseline, or starting point. once that was established, it's fine to refer back to for reference but by and large it becomes pretty irrelevant. he's a pro now and should be evaluated as such based upon what he does as a pro.
jimmy graham college vs. pro? arian foster college vs. pro? rolando mcclain college vs. pro?
just because i disagree with you regarding his merits as a prospect does not mean i have ignored his flaws. we simply evaluate this player differently. i could just as easily accuse you of ignoring his strengths....and that statement would be just as invalid.
jimmy graham college vs. pro? arian foster college vs. pro? rolando mcclain college vs. pro?
just because i disagree with you regarding his merits as a prospect does not mean i have ignored his flaws. we simply evaluate this player differently. i could just as easily accuse you of ignoring his strengths....and that statement would be just as invalid.
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georg013
Footballguy
georg013
Footballguy
A receiver with proven hands..say like Alshon Jeffery...would have made that catch. Isn't Matthews supposed to have Hulk mitts? The problem I have with this argument, and I'm not sure it was this thread exactly, is that there were peole ready to put this kid ahead of Samy Watkins! In fact, after Watkins's catchless opener, they were dancing on the tables saying, "See, see!" Then Matthews goes and gets the dropsies while Sammy is making highlight reel after highlight reel of one handed catches. Considered going after Matthews but something tells me he won't be all that people think he is. Solid, maybe. Great? Unlikely.
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werdnoynek
Footballguy
This clarifies it better for me, I see where you're coming from and agree from that side of things.
I should have said "thus far" in my post. I find it hard ignoring college strengths / weaknesses at this point because we're just 1 week into the preseason. We both agree that it's too early to completely close a book on someone, but when flaws that were flaws in college appear to still be flaws now, there could be an big issue. Again, not saying it can't be addressed, but it's carried into the pro level.
I do certainly agree that at some point, we move beyond what they are as a prospect. One guy I'm having a hard time doing that with is Trent Richardson for instance. He was a great prospect in most people's eyes. Through 2 years in the NFL, it's been a tale of two players - college vs pro. Me personally, I still cannot ignore what he did in college. I think at after this season, if he's still struggling, I'll close the college book and mark him down as a bust. But at this point, I cannot do it. He's too young and has too much talent to just ignore what he did at Bama. Some would call that somewhat psychotic... maybe it is.
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Well then write the guys who grade these things and tell them to change how they do it. If every one like that gets called a drop then drop rates for all WRs would double.
Of course, what then is a pass defended for a CB? (Hint- that went down as a pass defended)
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