TE Trey McBride, ARZ (1 Viewer)

[The Gator]

I don't think anyone is expecting him to be Kelce, but I don't think it's a stretch that he is a TE1 for the rest of the season.

nice call. TE 1 in PPG since week 8.

Only Njoku has more points (4), but McBride had a bye in that time.

 

[icehouse]

B E A S T

Are any dynasty owners considering selling? AZ has few receiving options. McBride has looked great, but that has surely helped his fantasy cause.

I'll consider selling depending of what they do at QB or if they draft Harrison. I can keep him for $6 out of a $200 budget.

 

[djjosee]

Due to injuries, I'll be starting him as my flex position in a couple of leagues. Not thrilled, but not disappointed either. Keep it up Trey!

 

[kyoun1e]

Numerous sites (including this one) projecting / ranking McBride over Kelce this week.

Changing of the guard.

Have to find a way to get him (AND Kelce) in my lineup this week.

 

[massraider]

B E A S T

Are any dynasty owners considering selling? AZ has few receiving options. McBride has looked great, but that has surely helped his fantasy cause.

I'll consider selling depending of what they do at QB or if they draft Harrison. I can keep him for $6 out of a $200 budget.

That's why I sold Kelce when they got Tyreek.

 

[efactor]

B E A S T

Are any dynasty owners considering selling? AZ has few receiving options. McBride has looked great, but that has surely helped his fantasy cause.

It would take a haul for me to move him at this point. Watching him against SF, there is nothing fluky about his game.

However, after his first good game in week 8, I offered him up for a late 2024 1st in a 16 teamer. Fortunately, the other team declined the deal. They came back and made the same offer back to me two weeks later, which I declined. Got saved from myself there.

 

[menobrown]

B E A S T

Are any dynasty owners considering selling? AZ has few receiving options. McBride has looked great, but that has surely helped his fantasy cause.

In a 1 QB FFPC league (TEs get 1.5 PPR), after week 11, I traded Jayden Reed, Kadarius Toney and a R2 (which now looks to be early) for McBride and Alexander Mattison.

I think in FFPC, McBride could likely fetch a late 1st now.

I picked him up in an FFPC dynasty league and actually went super aggressive and dropped over $250 on him BEFORE Ertz got hurt because I had noticed the previous two games what looked like a changing of the guard and I felt they wanted to move on from Ertz. The other reason I went so aggressive is the league is filled with TE horders, they go earlier in the drafts in this league then most leauges and in fact McBride went 1.11 the year he came out.

I'm not going to tell you I had any idea he was this good when I went all aggressive on him. That would be some after the fact revisionist stuff. A lie.

But after he started breaking out I was slammed with offers for him, can't recall a player that I got more trade offers to get. No one offered a one or value on par with a one and what I was telling people who made those offers is someone in this league took him at 1.11 when they had Ertz and knowing the TE learning curve. Now that Ertz has gone, he's full on broke out, you now want me to trade him to you for less? That did not compute to me but truth is a random one would not have been enough for me. I am for sure in the camp which think he's in the conversation for top TE in dynasty. I probaby would put him under 2 or 3, but he's in the convo. I'm not seeing anything about that looks like a fluke. He's not out pulling a Witten, racking up 5 yard curls short of the sticks which gets you 2 points in FFPC but is fairly worthless for his real team.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I've had Kelce in my keeper league since almost day one. I hate to break Kelce's heart but I may have to leave him for McBride. But at least Travis will still have that singer to console him.

 

[massraider]

I picked him up in an FFPC dynasty league and actually went super aggressive and dropped over $250 on him BEFORE Ertz got hurt because I had noticed the previous two games what looked like a changing of the guard and I felt they wanted to move on from Ertz. The other reason I went so aggressive is the league is filled with TE horders, they go earlier in the drafts in this league then most leauges and in fact McBride went 1.11 the year he came out.

I'm not going to tell you I had any idea he was this good when I went all aggressive on him. That would be some after the fact revisionist stuff. A lie.

But after he started breaking out I was slammed with offers for him, can't recall a player that I got more trade offers to get. No one offered a one or value on par with a one and what I was telling people who made those offers is someone in this league took him at 1.11 when they had Ertz and knowing the TE learning curve. Now that Ertz has gone, he's full on broke out, you now want me to trade him to you for less? That did not compute to me but truth is a random one would not have been enough for me. I am for sure in the camp which think he's in the conversation for top TE in dynasty. I probaby would put him under 2 or 3, but he's in the convo. I'm not seeing anything about that looks like a fluke. He's not out pulling a Witten, racking up 5 yard curls short of the sticks which gets you 2 points in FFPC but is fairly worthless for his real team.

I picked him up in a TE premium league as a rookie and forgot about him for a couple years, and in a keeper league I was getting stomped in, I spent all my FAAB on him, and have gotten a ton of offers.

I think a stud TE is such a unicorn, I am not treading away a guy who might be one.

 

[Gottabesweet]

FBG has him at 16.5 PPR points this week. Wow.

 

[kyoun1e]

FBG has him at 16.5 PPR points this week. Wow.

Multiple FBGs experts have McBride above Kelce this week.

 

[Wrigley]

FBG has him at 16.5 PPR points this week. Wow.

Njoku put up 10-104-1 last week

 

[Mr.Blonde]

My Lucky Astrology Mood Watch has McBride with 14 PPR points, #3 behind Kelce's 15.3

 

[Gottabesweet]

FBG has him at 16.5 PPR points this week. Wow.

Multiple FBGs experts have McBride above Kelce this week.

Going to be fun deciding on the wrong two from

Olave
G. Wilson
Swift
McBride
McKinnon

 

[kyoun1e]

FBG has him at 16.5 PPR points this week. Wow.

Multiple FBGs experts have McBride above Kelce this week.

Going to be fun deciding on the wrong two from

Olave
G. Wilson
Swift
McBride
McKinnon

I'd eliminate McKinnon and Swift from that equation.

 

[Gottabesweet]

FBG has him at 16.5 PPR points this week. Wow.

Multiple FBGs experts have McBride above Kelce this week.

Going to be fun deciding on the wrong two from

Olave
G. Wilson
Swift
McBride
McKinnon

I'd eliminate McKinnon and Swift from that equation.

Really like the Swift vs Giants matchup though lol.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

The goods. Makes plays at every level.

Forget just TE but include WRs too, he absolutely has to rank highly over his last 7 games played as a receiver (had bye last week). He's caught at least 7 passes and 60 or more yards in 5 of last 7 games.

Over the last 8 weeks, hed rank as WR12 (TE1) PPG in PPR. So he's been a WR1 the last half of the season.

I don't know how anyone's not starting him at this point but to each their own

 

[VikingFrog]

The goods. Makes plays at every level.

Forget just TE but include WRs too, he absolutely has to rank highly over his last 7 games played as a receiver (had bye last week). He's caught at least 7 passes and 60 or more yards in 5 of last 7 games.

Over the last 8 weeks, hed rank as WR12 (TE1) PPG in PPR. So he's been a WR1 the last half of the season.

I don't know how anyone's not starting him at this point but to each their own

For some reason I’ve seen Laporta and McBride on the same team across a few of my leagues. The guy that chose last week chose Laporta correctly… still would have moved on if he made the opposite choice. Which might make it more difficult, but at some point you have to think about flexing both possibly.

 

[kyoun1e]

The goods. Makes plays at every level.

Forget just TE but include WRs too, he absolutely has to rank highly over his last 7 games played as a receiver (had bye last week). He's caught at least 7 passes and 60 or more yards in 5 of last 7 games.

Over the last 8 weeks, hed rank as WR12 (TE1) PPG in PPR. So he's been a WR1 the last half of the season.

I don't know how anyone's not starting him at this point but to each their own

And Chicago is lousy against TEs.

 

[Gottabesweet]

The goods. Makes plays at every level.

Forget just TE but include WRs too, he absolutely has to rank highly over his last 7 games played as a receiver (had bye last week). He's caught at least 7 passes and 60 or more yards in 5 of last 7 games.

Over the last 8 weeks, hed rank as WR12 (TE1) PPG in PPR. So he's been a WR1 the last half of the season.

I don't know how anyone's not starting him at this point but to each their own

And Chicago is lousy against TEs.

It’ll be the first week I’m starting McBride and Kelce since trading for Kelce a month ago.

McBride will be in over G. Wilson and Swift. Leaning Olave to start as well with McBride at flex.

 

[kyoun1e]

The goods. Makes plays at every level.

Forget just TE but include WRs too, he absolutely has to rank highly over his last 7 games played as a receiver (had bye last week). He's caught at least 7 passes and 60 or more yards in 5 of last 7 games.

Over the last 8 weeks, hed rank as WR12 (TE1) PPG in PPR. So he's been a WR1 the last half of the season.

I don't know how anyone's not starting him at this point but to each their own

And Chicago is lousy against TEs.

It’ll be the first week I’m starting McBride and Kelce since trading for Kelce a month ago.

McBride will be in over G. Wilson and Swift. Leaning Olave to start as well with McBride at flex.

I drafted Kelce. Picked up McBride a few weeks ago.

Tinkering with starting both as well, would have to sit D. Montgomery.

 

[icehouse]

The goods. Makes plays at every level.

Forget just TE but include WRs too, he absolutely has to rank highly over his last 7 games played as a receiver (had bye last week). He's caught at least 7 passes and 60 or more yards in 5 of last 7 games.

Over the last 8 weeks, hed rank as WR12 (TE1) PPG in PPR. So he's been a WR1 the last half of the season.

I don't know how anyone's not starting him at this point but to each their own

For some reason I’ve seen Laporta and McBride on the same team across a few of my leagues. The guy that chose last week chose Laporta correctly… still would have moved on if he made the opposite choice. Which might make it more difficult, but at some point you have to think about flexing both possibly.

The LaPorta owner dropped him for a RB in my league.

 

[the spanker]

The goods. Makes plays at every level.

Forget just TE but include WRs too, he absolutely has to rank highly over his last 7 games played as a receiver (had bye last week). He's caught at least 7 passes and 60 or more yards in 5 of last 7 games.

Over the last 8 weeks, hed rank as WR12 (TE1) PPG in PPR. So he's been a WR1 the last half of the season.

I don't know how anyone's not starting him at this point but to each their own

For some reason I’ve seen Laporta and McBride on the same team across a few of my leagues. The guy that chose last week chose Laporta correctly… still would have moved on if he made the opposite choice. Which might make it more difficult, but at some point you have to think about flexing both possibly.

That's exactly what I'm doing this week.

 

[Terpman22]

Start him over Kittle??

 

[GPS]

Start him over Kittle??

I'm starting him over Kelce, so...

 

[jobarules]

FBG has him at 16.5 PPR points this week. Wow.

Multiple FBGs experts have McBride above Kelce this week.

Going to be fun deciding on the wrong two from

Olave
G. Wilson
Swift
McBride
McKinnon

Easiest decision ever?

 

[ffmail4me]

If I were ranking dynasty TEs, given his age and his QB I would have no problem making him my TE1 even if they add an alpha WR. He may even be more dangerous with a threat on the outside that safeties have to pay attention to.

ETA - LaPorta ultimately would probably be my 1, but McBride would be considered.

I am in the middle of a PPR Best Ball SF Dynasty startup draft, and where LaPorta went mid 3rd round by another team, I took McBride mid 6th. I feel that was a HUGE win for my team. Like you said, when you consider his age I didn't blink taking him over Andrews or anyone else on board. And an alpha WR could absolutely open things up for him next year. I'm on the train!

 

[efactor]

Really like McBride but am a bit concerned about Kyler as his QB keeping him from being truly elite. Was kind of hoping they would draft a QB but looks like Kyler is the guy for at least 2024. Not surprising because of the contract but still.

Just traded him for Stevenson 1.16 in dynasty. Still have him in one league so hope he does well but felt the value was too much to pass on.

 

[DropKick]

Really like McBride but am a bit concerned about Kyler as his QB keeping him from being truly elite. Was kind of hoping they would draft a QB but looks like Kyler is the guy for at least 2024. Not surprising because of the contract but still.

Just traded him for Stevenson 1.16 in dynasty. Still have him in one league so hope he does well but felt the value was too much to pass on.

Unless I had another great option rostered at TE, I think I prefer McBride over Stevenson and the pick.

 

[efactor]

Really like McBride but am a bit concerned about Kyler as his QB keeping him from being truly elite. Was kind of hoping they would draft a QB but looks like Kyler is the guy for at least 2024. Not surprising because of the contract but still.

Just traded him for Stevenson 1.16 in dynasty. Still have him in one league so hope he does well but felt the value was too much to pass on.

Unless I had another great option rostered at TE, I think I prefer McBride over Stevenson and the pick.

Yeah. I have Andrews/Likely otherwise wouldn’t have made deal.

 

[sheerterror]

I like the guy, but I'm not sure I've ever seen someone jump so fast into top 3-5 dynasty off such a small sample size. I realize he's got the draft capital and passes the eye test - and very well likely is a stud, but we're going off half of a strong season (yes I realize this coincided with Ertz going down and his snap %'s going up). Is this a product of overreaction to the next new thing, a commentary on the state of the TE landscape right now in dynasty, or the fact that sometimes you just know the guy is a star?

 

[lsutigers]

. . . I realize he's got the draft capital and passes the eye test - and very well likely is a stud, but we're going off half of a strong season. . .

I don't know that there is ever more to go off of, except a history of proven success. He was the consensus top move TE in his class (admittedly a weak TE class overall). I think like you mentioned the state of the TE landscape with Kelce/Kittle likely reaching the end of their peak performance plays into it but would rather take the flier on him continuing to ascend rather than the Engram and Njoku's (inconsistent) and Goedert and Pitts (usage).

 

[ffmail4me]

I like the guy, but I'm not sure I've ever seen someone jump so fast into top 3-5 dynasty off such a small sample size. I realize he's got the draft capital and passes the eye test - and very well likely is a stud, but we're going off half of a strong season (yes I realize this coincided with Ertz going down and his snap %'s going up). Is this a product of overreaction to the next new thing, a commentary on the state of the TE landscape right now in dynasty, or the fact that sometimes you just know the guy is a star?

- YouTube

Auf YouTube findest du die angesagtesten Videos und Tracks. Außerdem kannst du eigene Inhalte hochladen und mit Freunden oder gleich der ganzen Welt teilen.

www.youtube.com

This video/game sold me. He makes some VERY difficult catches look easy. I think he's top 2 dynasty right now.

 

[FairWarning]

I like the guy, but I'm not sure I've ever seen someone jump so fast into top 3-5 dynasty off such a small sample size. I realize he's got the draft capital and passes the eye test - and very well likely is a stud, but we're going off half of a strong season (yes I realize this coincided with Ertz going down and his snap %'s going up). Is this a product of overreaction to the next new thing, a commentary on the state of the TE landscape right now in dynasty, or the fact that sometimes you just know the guy is a star?

its their system. If Ertz was healthy, he would have benefitted.

 

[BearsFan4Life]

I like the guy, but I'm not sure I've ever seen someone jump so fast into top 3-5 dynasty off such a small sample size. I realize he's got the draft capital and passes the eye test - and very well likely is a stud, but we're going off half of a strong season (yes I realize this coincided with Ertz going down and his snap %'s going up). Is this a product of overreaction to the next new thing, a commentary on the state of the TE landscape right now in dynasty, or the fact that sometimes you just know the guy is a star?

- YouTube

Auf YouTube findest du die angesagtesten Videos und Tracks. Außerdem kannst du eigene Inhalte hochladen und mit Freunden oder gleich der ganzen Welt teilen.

www.youtube.com

This video/game sold me. He makes some VERY difficult catches look easy. I think he's top 2 dynasty right now.

After I lost in the semifinal of 14 team dynasty .. I traded Kelce for Andrews and a 2025 2nd rounder and Kupp and a mid to late 2024 2nd Rounder for McBride (owner also has LaPorta). My TE room is set for years to come. He and Murray have a good report and it will be interesting to see if AZ stays with Murray (which I think they will) or draft a QB.

 

[Faust]

Video: Wolf: Cardinals’ Trey McBride is an ‘elite’ TE

Cardinals’ Trey McBride embracing challenge to become top-tier tight end

Red Sea Report - Cardinals Tight End Trey McBride Looking To Build On Breakout Season

 

[Faust]

Dwain McFarland
The Trey McBride stats after moving into the starting role in Week 8 never get old to look at.

14.9 points per game
29% target share
2.09 YPRR

x.com

x.com

 

[Faust]

Hayden Winks
Wild stats from NFL Pro on Matt Milano's loss.

Trey McBride in a good spot with game script, too.

x.com

x.com

 

[Faust]

PFF ranks Arizona Cardinals’ Trey McBride a top-10 NFL tight end

 

[cross1420]

wouldn't be surprised he stays top 3 for the year

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

wouldn't be surprised he stays top 3 for the year

I was able to get 1 share in a NFFC - for some reason this league all waited at TE. Like a Mexican stand-off. Finally the 2 teams before me blinked in the 5th. I couldn’t pass him up. Felt much better about taking KWIII over LaPorta in the 4th so that worked out well. I was kicking myself for a round though.

 

[EBF]

I Immediately liked him as soon as I dove into the film. High floor prospect. Good athleticism.

I should confess that I have a tendency to collect mediocre FF TEs. They often fall to good value in the rookie drafts, so I often find myself drafting them. I was a big buyer of Hayden Hurst, Eric Ebron, Hunter Henry, Tyler Eifert, and a few others who never really connected in the way you would've hoped. On the other hand, I was also a multi-league owner of Jimmy Graham and Mark Andrews. Sometimes there's more latent upside with these boring picks than you think.

Which way will McBride go? I don't see the MONSTER ceiling of a Gonzo, Gronk, Graham, or Kelce. Those guys always had certain athletic traits that were unusual. McBride is a good athlete for the position, but not a special one. He's not on par with the likes of Pitts, Njoku, Ebron, Shockey, or Winslow when you imagine the best version of what he can become. He has a modest catch radius, meaning he might be limited as a red zone option (he didn't score many TDs in college). He's more of a catch-and-run weapon than a jump ball or seam threat, yet he didn't convert many of those short catches into monster gains like an Ebron type did at the same stage of his development.

So where's the appeal if he's not an elite red zone or a special home run threat? I think he projects to be a very good chain mover and compiler. He should be great at working the middle of the field as a safety valve with some RAC skills. The best version of what he can be is somebody like Chris Cooley or Alge Crumpler. Not elite, but solid. The landing spot in AZ seems promising to me, as he should quickly become their go-to TE option and one of their best possession outlets.

I think his ceiling is too low to make him a phenomenal rookie pick in conventional leagues, as he doesn't have an obvious difference-maker upside, but in deeper/flex formats where low end TE1 can still have value, I like the proposition.

I just about had it right, but did indeed underestimate his upside. Took him in redraft last year and he blew up down the stretch.

There aren't many TEs I'd rather have this season.

AZ figures to be bad. Game script and lack of target competition favor McBride.

 

[Max55]

I Immediately liked him as soon as I dove into the film. High floor prospect. Good athleticism.

I should confess that I have a tendency to collect mediocre FF TEs. They often fall to good value in the rookie drafts, so I often find myself drafting them. I was a big buyer of Hayden Hurst, Eric Ebron, Hunter Henry, Tyler Eifert, and a few others who never really connected in the way you would've hoped. On the other hand, I was also a multi-league owner of Jimmy Graham and Mark Andrews. Sometimes there's more latent upside with these boring picks than you think.

Which way will McBride go? I don't see the MONSTER ceiling of a Gonzo, Gronk, Graham, or Kelce. Those guys always had certain athletic traits that were unusual. McBride is a good athlete for the position, but not a special one. He's not on par with the likes of Pitts, Njoku, Ebron, Shockey, or Winslow when you imagine the best version of what he can become. He has a modest catch radius, meaning he might be limited as a red zone option (he didn't score many TDs in college). He's more of a catch-and-run weapon than a jump ball or seam threat, yet he didn't convert many of those short catches into monster gains like an Ebron type did at the same stage of his development.

So where's the appeal if he's not an elite red zone or a special home run threat? I think he projects to be a very good chain mover and compiler. He should be great at working the middle of the field as a safety valve with some RAC skills. The best version of what he can be is somebody like Chris Cooley or Alge Crumpler. Not elite, but solid. The landing spot in AZ seems promising to me, as he should quickly become their go-to TE option and one of their best possession outlets.

I think his ceiling is too low to make him a phenomenal rookie pick in conventional leagues, as he doesn't have an obvious difference-maker upside, but in deeper/flex formats where low end TE1 can still have value, I like the proposition.

I just about had it right, but did indeed underestimate his upside. Took him in redraft last year and he blew up down the stretch.

There aren't many TEs I'd rather have this season.

AZ figures to be bad. Game script and lack of target competition favor McBride.

McBride had some variation last year once he became the starter.

IMO may not be a higher ceiling for a TE when it comes to fantasy. He dominated a couple games last year with target share and results.

 

[menobrown]

lack of target competition favor McBride.

He's my TE2 but not for this reason, that's actually my major concern.

On that note I feel like all the top TE's have a legit major concern, with the exception of Laporta. And I don't mean some kind of concern where I'm listing things just to list things, legit stuff. Again for me with McBride it's having MHJ and what appears to be an improved second year version of Michael Wilson to compete with on targets.

IMO may not be a higher ceiling for a TE when it comes to fantasy

I personally got Kincaid as the highest ceiling TE but among the top group of TE's also the lowest floor. Boils down to his usage, how much will he be used like last year when Brady took over and Knox was healthy vs using him as something closer to an everydown player.

I would add I look at everything from prism of 1.5 PPR for TE's, which makes TD's a little less key.

 

[Ray_T]

FBG has him at 16.5 PPR points this week. Wow.

Multiple FBGs experts have McBride above Kelce this week.

kelce may also have his toughest matchup of the year this week too. keep that in mind

 

[EBF]

On that note I feel like all the top TE's have a legit major concern, with the exception of Laporta. And I don't mean some kind of concern where I'm listing things just to list things, legit stuff. Again for me with McBride it's having MHJ and what appears to be an improved second year version of Michael Wilson to compete with on targets.

I'd say their WR group is in the bottom half of the NFL, and that might be generous.

Wasn't a Wilson fan out of Stanford. His rookie year was fine, but not special. Promising efficiency. Medium volume. Do they throw him 100+ targets this year? I guess it's possible, but as of now we have little reason to think he's going to be a big deal. If they loved him, they might not have gone MHJ in the top 5.

My take on MHJ is that he's the Bijan Robinson of this WR class. Very good, but perhaps still overhyped. He's going top 10-15 among WRs in redraft. Is that the highest ADP ever for a rookie WR? It might be. In 20+ years of FF, I can't recall another rookie WR being treated like a presumptive FF star from day one. We've seen rookie WRs come in recently and shred the league ala Nacua, Chase, and Jefferson. Certainly it's possible that MHJ lives up the hype right away. It's also possible that he's never that good or that it will take years for him to become that good.

I evaluated several of his games and didn't see freakish athletic qualities ala Moss, TO, or Julio. He's not an overwhelming sprinter or physical talent. He doesn't have any one single trait that he should obviously be able to leverage right from the get-go to dominate. I think his style is more of a technician, roughly in between Fitzgerald, Lamb, and Reggie Wayne. Fitz was actually a better physical talent since he was a lot heavier/stronger. If I'm right and MHJ is that type of WR then it may not translate to instant domination. Fitz had 780 yards in year 1. Lamb had 935. Reggie Wayne had just 345. AJ Green had 1,057. Those are some style twins and they didn't smash the NFL straight away. It took a while. There's more urgency to get instant help from your rookies these days, but still we can't assume he will just walk in and be a reliable #1 option from day one.

If we look at the gradient of all possible outcomes, there are a lot of runouts where MHJ is a mildly disappointing, inconsistent rookie. A conservative, yet optimistic estimate of 800-1100 yards on 65-80 catches still leaves a lot of cleanup for the TE.

There's a chance that Wilson and MHJ will be a dominant duo, but that represents just a slice of the possible outcomes. Overall I think McBride easily has the best combination of talent, experience, and track record among the pass-catchers on this team. He should be the constant, like Andrews in Baltimore and Kelce in KC. WRs have come and gone in those spots, yet meanwhile those TEs have always gotten a steady diet of looks. Even if McBride is not that level of talent, his competition this season is two very green young WRs with almost no experience or production to date. I think the Cardinals will lean on him heavily.

 

[menobrown]

On that note I feel like all the top TE's have a legit major concern, with the exception of Laporta. And I don't mean some kind of concern where I'm listing things just to list things, legit stuff. Again for me with McBride it's having MHJ and what appears to be an improved second year version of Michael Wilson to compete with on targets.

I'd say their WR group is in the bottom half of the NFL, and that might be generous.

Wasn't a Wilson fan out of Stanford. His rookie year was fine, but not special. Promising efficiency. Medium volume. Do they throw him 100+ targets this year? I guess it's possible, but as of now we have little reason to think he's going to be a big deal. If they loved him, they might not have gone MHJ in the top 5.

My take on MHJ is that he's the Bijan Robinson of this WR class. Very good, but perhaps still overhyped. He's going top 10-15 among WRs in redraft. Is that the highest ADP ever for a rookie WR? It might be. In 20+ years of FF, I can't recall another rookie WR being treated like a presumptive FF star from day one. We've seen rookie WRs come in recently and shred the league ala Nacua, Chase, and Jefferson. Certainly it's possible that MHJ lives up the hype right away. It's also possible that he's never that good or that it will take years for him to become that good.

I evaluated several of his games and didn't see freakish athletic qualities ala Moss, TO, or Julio. He's not an overwhelming sprinter or physical talent. He doesn't have any one single trait that he should obviously be able to leverage right from the get-go to dominate. I think his style is more of a technician, roughly in between Fitzgerald, Lamb, and Reggie Wayne. Fitz was actually a better physical talent since he was a lot heavier/stronger. If I'm right and MHJ is that type of WR then it may not translate to instant domination. Fitz had 780 yards in year 1. Lamb had 935. Reggie Wayne had just 345. AJ Green had 1,057. Those are some style twins and they didn't smash the NFL straight away. It took a while. There's more urgency to get instant help from your rookies these days, but still we can't assume he will just walk in and be a reliable #1 option from day one.

If we look at the gradient of all possible outcomes, there are a lot of runouts where MHJ is a mildly disappointing, inconsistent rookie. A conservative, yet optimistic estimate of 800-1100 yards on 65-80 catches still leaves a lot of cleanup for the TE.

There's a chance that Wilson and MHJ will be a dominant duo, but that represents just a slice of the possible outcomes. Overall I think McBride easily has the best combination of talent, experience, and track record among the pass-catchers on this team. He should be the constant, like Andrews in Baltimore and Kelce in KC. WRs have come and gone in those spots, yet meanwhile those TEs have always gotten a steady diet of looks. Even if McBride is not that level of talent, his competition this season is two very green young WRs with almost no experience or production to date. I think the Cardinals will lean on him heavily.

Appreciate the detailed well thought out response.

I for sure have a higher opinion of MHJ and think he's going to have a big year out of the gate.

It's for sure hard to think MHJ and a likely improved Wilson as not being more to contend with for targets then McBride had last year.

 

[EBF]

Their group was really bad last year, but not totally devoid of talent. Hollywood Brown is a former 1st round guy and still the only WR to ever have a 1k+ yard season with Lamar Jackson. Very flawed player and very injury prone, but he wasn't a zero. That's 100+ targets walking out the door.

Rondale Moore is harder to argue for. He was a 2nd round pick. I liked his tape out of Purdue. His production was minimal though and the Cardinals dumped him for a guy they eventually cut (Desmond Ridder). Not good. I can't sit here and say Rondale Moore is some huge loss for Arizona. He was effectively a big draft bust for them, but he did make Atlanta's 53 and was good for 55-60 targets in Arizona.

That's a lot of extra targets to spread around. 160+. The only significant addition to the WR corps is MHJ. If you figure he gets most of those extra targets and Wilson sees a moderate bump, that still leaves a whole lot of work for McBride. The WR3-WR6 slots are a bunch of "Who?" type guys, so I'm not worried much about them. Again, I just don't see this as a WR group to worry about unless MHJ comes in playing like prime Larry Fitz from day one. Should be plenty of work to go around, especially with a suspect RB group and Kyler in year 2 from the ACL.

I think if it were Andrews or Kelce in this spot, we wouldn't be saying the WR group is an obstacle, so maybe it's a lack of belief in McBride if we think a rookie and a guy with <600 career yards are going to limit his output. In a vacuum the WR group is not scary until they prove otherwise.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I personally got Kincaid as the highest ceiling TE

Agreed. He could soak up 100 more targets and it still wouldn’t hurt Shakir or Coleman. Knox is still there, but Kincaid looks special. All comes down to how much they want to target him.’

 

[BlackCrowes]

Whatever you do, don’t watch Waldman’s breakdown of Murray missing him wide open in the end zone