Team Spotlight: Atlanta Falcons (1 Viewer)

[Maurile Tremblay]

See the pinned thread for links to each team spotlight.

I'll start off by posting my projections to get us going. The idea is for others to post their own projections as well, or to comment on the projections posted by others.

Overall

537 pass attempts for 325 receptions, 3720 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions; 446 rushes for 1921 yards and 14 touchdowns.

QB

Matt Ryan: 305 of 503 passing for 3501 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions; 33 rushes for 62 yards and 1 touchdown.

Chris Redman: 20 of 34 passing for 219 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 2 rushes for 4 yards and 0 touchdowns.

John Parker Wilson: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

RB

Michael Turner: 240 rushes for 1110 yards and 9 touchdowns; 12 receptions for 87 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jerious Norwood: 60 rushes for 285 yards and 1 touchdown; 19 receptions for 158 yards and 1 touchdown.

Jason Snelling: 80 rushes for 326 yards and 2 touchdowns; 22 receptions for 174 yards and 1 touchdown.

Ovie Mughelli: 20 rushes for 79 yards and 1 touchdown; 9 receptions for 68 yards and 0 touchdowns.

WR

Roddy White: 81 receptions for 1129 yards and 7 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 11 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Michael Jenkins: 33 receptions for 409 yards and 2 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 11 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Harry Douglas: 17 receptions for 226 yards and 1 touchdown; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Brian Finneran: 17 receptions for 212 yards and 1 touchdown; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Eric Weems: 10 receptions for 119 yards and 1 touchdown; 6 rushes for 33 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Troy Bergeron: 7 receptions for 85 yards and 1 touchdown; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

TE

Tony Gonzalez: 87 receptions for 974 yards and 7 touchdowns.

Justin Peelle: 9 receptions for 70 yards and 1 touchdown.

Keith Zinger: 1 receptions for 9 yards and 0 touchdowns.

 

[tjford]

Couple beefs I have with this but a couple of agreements as well.

1) I have a tough time buying that Mike Smith won't give Turner the ball more than 15 times a game.

In a year after Turner carried 377 times, Smith vowed he would reduce Turner's carries. Yet through the Falcons' first eight games, Turner had 156 carries, on pace for well over 300 carries. Through those 8 games, Turner also posted a YPC of over 5.0 and scored 10 times. Those numbers also discount the 9 carries he took in week 10 for 111 yards in one quarter against the Panthers before he got hurt. In his 377 carry campaign in 2008, Turner's YPC stayed slightly over 4.5 where he scored 17 times.

I'm not willing to believe that an ankle sprain is an injury associated with "breaking down" but I suppose that is difficult to back up. What I can back up Snelling's inability to break games open by getting to the secondary. In that same game that Turner went 9-111, Snelling took 18 handoffs for 61 yards, his longest being 11. Longest rushes of 11, 13, 3, 10 and 7 followed. The kid is bruiser with above average hands but he is a fullback taking handoffs and doesn't have the game breaking talent that Turner does. Smith will not deny Turner his touches barring injury and I think Norwood and Snelling will be the donors of the carries to the tune of 20 carries each by your projections. I also doubt Mughelli's offensive impact is that high, 20 carries would be a career high for him.

2) While your passing predictions are fairly close to 2009 numbers, I am one to believe that the ineffective running game after Turner went down inflated the passing numbers. A return to form by Turner should see a correction in those numbers.

According to your prediction, the Falcons will throw on average just under 34 times a game. In 2009, the Falcons threw 34 times or more in 11 games. Only 3 of those games occurred when Michael Turner was healthy. To elaborate further, the Falcons threw the ball more than 40 times a game last year only 5 times and in just one contest, Turner was healthy. That was the week 8 game against the Saints where we got in a huge hole early. If we are able to win running the ball, I would be surprised if Ryan throws more than 30-31 times a game. For comparison, if you prorate the passing game from the first 8 games over the whole year, Ryan would have just crested 500 attempts.

3) I am in agreement mostly with the split of receptions and receiving yards between the pass catchers.

However, I hope that Harry Douglas can become more of an impact from the slot and I wouldn't be upset if Weems and Finneran do not contribute as much as a result. Really tough to bet against Tony G but I think his projections are a bit high across the board.

4) Why do you have us scoring 5 less offensive TDs this year?

I don't see the reasoning behind a scoring drop like that. I believe I am being conservative with 40 offensive TDs.

My predictions:

QB:

Matt Ryan - 300 of 490 for 3000 yards, 22 TDs and 14 INTs. 40 rushes for 90 yards and 1 TD

Redman and JPW don't take a snap

RB:

Michael Turner - 300 carries for 1400 yards and 15 TDs. He also sets a career high with 8 catches for 50 yards

Jerious Norwood - 40 carries for 180 yards and 1 TD. 20 catches for 150 yards and 1 TD

Jason Snelling - 60 rushes for 250 yards and 2 TD. 15 catches for 100 yards

Ovie Mughelli - 5 rushes for 20 yards. 7 catches for 50 yards and 1 TD

WR:

Roddy White - 80 catches for 1200 yards and 9 TDs

Harry Douglas - 35 catches for 300 yards and 2 TDs

Michael Jenkins - 30 catches for 250 yards and 2 TDs

Others combined - 25 catches for 150 yards and 1 TD

TE:

Tony Gonzalez - 70 catches for 700 yards and 6 TDs

Others - 10 catches for 50 yards

 

[Truman]

These projections clearly indicate a step back for the Falcons offense this year, which is fine, but I would like to know what that opinion is based on.

Preseason SOS projections are of questionable worth, but the Falcons schedule this year looks to be far easier than last season when they faced multiple teams coming off byes and played the entire NFC East. This season they take on the might of the NFC West, consistently the worst division in football.

Overall

537 pass attempts for 325 receptions, 3720 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions; 446 rushes for 1921 yards and 14 touchdowns.

These numbers are similar to last year for the most part, when Ryan and Turner combined to miss 7 games and multiple linemen were injured. The year prior the team was healthier, Ryan was a rookie - the run/pass emphasis was quite different due to these factors. 43 TDs in 08, 44 in 09, 36 would be a major step back for a young offense.

QB

Matt Ryan: 305 of 503 passing for 3501 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions; 33 rushes for 62 yards and 1 touchdown.

Chris Redman: 20 of 34 passing for 219 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 2 rushes for 4 yards and 0 touchdowns.

John Parker Wilson: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Ryan missed 2 games last season and threw 6 more TDs than in 08. IMO a major reason for his struggles were due to pass protection - he looked to get the ball out quickly and there was no chance for the deep passing game to develop. There are Falcons fans who agree with the consensus that 09 was a step back from his rookie year however. If Baker and Ryan both stay healthy there will be a bump in these numbers, improved play in the receiving game could also contribute, though we'll get to that in a bit....

RB

Michael Turner: 240 rushes for 1110 yards and 9 touchdowns; 12 receptions for 87 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jerious Norwood: 60 rushes for 285 yards and 1 touchdown; 19 receptions for 158 yards and 1 touchdown.

Jason Snelling: 80 rushes for 326 yards and 2 touchdowns; 22 receptions for 174 yards and 1 touchdown.

Ovie Mughelli: 20 rushes for 79 yards and 1 touchdown; 9 receptions for 68 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Michael Turner missed 5 games and went from 376 carries in 08 to less than half that with 178 in 09. His yardage and TDs took similar hits. If healthy, there's no way he carries the ball only 240 times or bottoms out at 9 TDs - he had 10 last year in 11 games.You also seem to be projecting an(other) injury for Norwood, given the only season his numbers were close to as poor as these was 09 where he missed 6 games. Every other season of his career he's had a significant role in the offense - including taking direct snaps in the Dirty Bird formation in 08. http://www.nfl.com/players/jeriousnorwood/...le?id=NOR780922

Snelling will only get those carries through the aforementioned injury, agree with the sentiments posted above, and Mughelli has never had double digit carries in his career.

WR

Roddy White: 81 receptions for 1129 yards and 7 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 11 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Michael Jenkins: 33 receptions for 409 yards and 2 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 11 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Harry Douglas: 17 receptions for 226 yards and 1 touchdown; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Brian Finneran: 17 receptions for 212 yards and 1 touchdown; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Eric Weems: 10 receptions for 119 yards and 1 touchdown; 6 rushes for 33 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Troy Bergeron: 7 receptions for 85 yards and 1 touchdown; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Roddy's numbers look to be right on target, though his proportion of receptions is way off.Most Falcons fans would welcome Michael Jenkins posting those numbers as it would mean he is to spend significant time on the bench, though when he has played in that role previously he has still posted 50+ receptions. I think there's a good chance that will be his role in '10 in favour of .......

Harry Douglas who missed the entire season with a torn ACL last year. Remains to be seen how well he recovers, though this projection is down on Douglas as it has him with less receptions than he had as a rookie. Douglas had a role as a gadget guy then, carrying the ball on trick plays and getting touches at returner. Finneran/Weems/Bergeron will see significantly less time than the other receivers, with Weems most likely to step into a regular role if someone gets hurt.

TE

Tony Gonzalez: 87 receptions for 974 yards and 7 touchdowns.

Justin Peelle: 9 receptions for 70 yards and 1 touchdown.

Keith Zinger: 1 receptions for 9 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Hard to say what Gonzalez will do. At 34 years old he missed the Pro Bowl for the first time in years in 09, though this has him with a slight improvement on last season - I suspect the numbers will be pretty close. The others are prospects, neither has a chance of contributing this year.

 

[Truman]

I also posted this on a Falcons board (spot the stolen content!), some of the responses.....

So Ryan is projected to go from:2009- 22TD's, 14INT's, 2900 yards to2010- 21 TD's, 15 INT's, 3500 yards?Interesting. Also looks like they are predicting him to miss one game. BTW, Ryan threw for 3400 yards, 16TD's, 11 INT's his rookie year.

Hard to take this too seriously. I mean, look at the WRs - at least 2 of the last 3 guys won't make the team. And HD with only 17 receptions? He had 23 as a rookie. Jenkins only 33 receptions? He's had at least 50 the last 3 years. Also find it hard to believe Turner will only get 240 carries. I know we want to reduce his carries, but by over a third from 2008? Not while Mularkey's the OC. I certainly hope Norwood gets more than 19 catches. That's a little over 1 a game. He had almost double that in 2008. I'd be wanting us to get this guy out in space 3 or 4 times a game.

Turner had 178 carries last year and 376 in 2008. Looks like they are projecting Turner will miss 3-4 games due to injury in 2010.Turner had 17 TD's in 2008. 10 in 11 games in 2009. Now they project 9 in 2010. Interesting.Projected YPC is 4.6. He averaged 4.5 in 2008 and 4.9 in 2009 For those fans of utilizing the screen more, Turner caught 6 passes in 2008 and 5 in 2009. A projection of 12 seems a little high...but maybe they know something! _________________________________Norwood's carries starting with his rookie year- 99, 103, 95, and 76. 2010 projection: 60.Avg yards per carry- 6.4, 6, 5.1, then last year a bumbling 3.3. 2010 projection: 4.75Catches: 12, 28, 36, 19, and they are predicting he will match the last total again next year._________________________________Snelling had 142 attempts last year. Projection for this year is 80.He had over 600 yards last year. This year projecting just over 300.Snelling had a whopping 30 receptions last year. 22 projected. Feels right._________________________________Mugheli has had 15 attempts in the last 3 years COMBINED. This year they project him to get 20 carries? Where did that come from? I hope it isnt just goalline plays because they are only projecting 1 TD.They are also projecting Ovie will catch more passes than he has since joining the Falcons._________________________________Something seems off. Looks like the Falcons average about 480-500 rushes a season. This projection only accounts for 400. Are they projecting we throw it a lot more?

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I agree that the the Falcon rush totals and Turner's carries per game are too low.

 

[tjford]

Final Totals for the Falcons:

QB:

Matt Ryan - 357 for 571, 3705 yards, 28 TDs/9 INT, 46 rushes for 122 yards

Chris Redman - 4 for 6, 20 yards

RB:

Michael Turner - 334 rushes for 1371 yards (4.1 YPC) and 12 TDs; 12 catches for 85 yards

Jason Snelling - 87 rushes for 324 yards (3.7 YPC) and 2 TDs; 44 catches for 303 yards and 3 TDs

Others - 40 rushes for 74 yards; 17 rec for 141 yards and 1 TD

WR/TE:

Roddy White - 115 rec for 1389 yards and 10 TDs

Tony Gonzalez - 70 rec for 656 yards and 6 TDs

Michael Jenkins - 41 rec for 505 yards and 2 TDs

Harry Douglas - 22 rec for 294 yards and 1 TD

Brian Finneran - 19 rec for 166 yards and 3 TDs

Others - 21 rec for 186 yards and 2 TDs

Interesting points

- I expected Turner and Gonzalez to turn in the numbers that they did but Matt Ryan to Roddy White is as legit of a connection as there is in football. Add in the emergence of Jason Snelling as a viable 3rd down option out of the backfield and Michael Jenkins producing comparable totals to his last two years despite missing 5 games, the Falcons passing game has improved significantly.

- Harry Douglas failed miserably in his bid to emerge as a legitimate option on the outside. Jenkins' shoulder injury provided more than enough opportunity for Douglas to prove himself worthy as a WR2 opposite Roddy White. Lack of separation all year, poor hands at times and an overall lack of impact plays showed that not only is Douglas not ready to start on the outside, but he also may not be the comforting option out of the slot that the Falcons will invariably need when Tony Gonzalez hangs them up. Hopefully the Falcons address the tight end position in the 2011 draft or rookie TE Michael Palmer can make a big push forward

- The Falcons scored one more offensive TD (42) this year than last year as well as almost mirroring their total offensive yards.

 

[Shlon]

Final Totals for the Falcons:QB:Matt Ryan - 357 for 571, 3705 yards, 28 TDs/9 INT, 46 rushes for 122 yardsChris Redman - 4 for 6, 20 yardsRB:Michael Turner - 334 rushes for 1371 yards (4.1 YPC) and 12 TDs; 12 catches for 85 yardsJason Snelling - 87 rushes for 324 yards (3.7 YPC) and 2 TDs; 44 catches for 303 yards and 3 TDsOthers - 40 rushes for 74 yards; 17 rec for 141 yards and 1 TDWR/TE:Roddy White - 115 rec for 1389 yards and 10 TDsTony Gonzalez - 70 rec for 656 yards and 6 TDsMichael Jenkins - 41 rec for 505 yards and 2 TDsHarry Douglas - 22 rec for 294 yards and 1 TDBrian Finneran - 19 rec for 166 yards and 3 TDsOthers - 21 rec for 186 yards and 2 TDsInteresting points- I expected Turner and Gonzalez to turn in the numbers that they did but Matt Ryan to Roddy White is as legit of a connection as there is in football. Add in the emergence of Jason Snelling as a viable 3rd down option out of the backfield and Michael Jenkins producing comparable totals to his last two years despite missing 5 games, the Falcons passing game has improved significantly.- Harry Douglas failed miserably in his bid to emerge as a legitimate option on the outside. Jenkins' shoulder injury provided more than enough opportunity for Douglas to prove himself worthy as a WR2 opposite Roddy White. Lack of separation all year, poor hands at times and an overall lack of impact plays showed that not only is Douglas not ready to start on the outside, but he also may not be the comforting option out of the slot that the Falcons will invariably need when Tony Gonzalez hangs them up. Hopefully the Falcons address the tight end position in the 2011 draft or rookie TE Michael Palmer can make a big push forward- The Falcons scored one more offensive TD (42) this year than last year as well as almost mirroring their total offensive yards.

Biggest need: Receiver that has burning speed and can stretch the field to keep defenses honest.Jerious Norwood was hurt, and we missed some of that speed in the backfield but Jason Snelling filled in pretty well.

 

[I was in the pool]

Watching the Falcons all year, here is what I have -

The defense is ahead of schedule from the huge rebuild with Smith and Dimitroff coming in 2 years ago. I love the youth across the board and they are loaded with talent (outside of a few additions in the next couple years) and ready for a run.

The offense is very efficient, more than I expected, but Ryan is really becoming a great general at the line of scrimmage and a clutch passer on third down. They are definitely lacking weapons. Gonzalez has lost two steps of speed/agility since last year and has at most 1 more year in my eyes. He has trouble getting separation in man-to-man coverage without pushing off or getting a slow linebacker in coverage. The young ND tight end Rudolph would be a good weapon in the draft, but I wouldn't want them to use their 1st rounder on him.

Jenkins played above what I was expecting with a few big plays, some key first downs and - as always - great blocking. Douglas - disappointment as discussed earlier. I thought he would be a 2B receiver in the offense at least. Snelling would be great to keep around for RB and on 3rd downs, but he may move on in 2011.

Special teams were above average as usual. I liked Rossum back in the day - was sorry to see him go - but I like Weems as well. I hope he stays around for a couple more years.

The offensive line I was happy with in terms of pass protection, but think they were a step down from years past in terms of opening holes in the run game. In the draft I would focus on getting at least one weapon on offense, a pass-rushing DE (Abraham is getting more situational every year - which is fine with me, keep him fresh for the passing downs that matter most) and a center to get ready for McClure to hang in up soon.

I love Grimes and Robinson at the corner spots. It has been evident in 2010 the difference in the total defense when the coverage is better. The pass rush has had that extra time to get to the quarterback and more defensed passes in the secondary. With the corners, DeCoud and Moore, our secondary is good to go. Peters and Jeria were great inside with Babineaux. Anderson was solid in his DT/DE role - still disappointing as a top 10 pick, but not a total bust as he contributes at least.