Team Spotlight: Cincinnati Bengals (1 Viewer)

[Maurile Tremblay]

See the pinned thread for links to each team spotlight.

I'll start off by posting my projections to get us going. The idea is for others to post their own projections as well, or to comment on the projections posted by others.

I'm a lot less convinced than most people that Cedric Benson will be the featured back.

Overall

509 pass attempts for 314 receptions, 3456 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions; 468 rushes for 1842 yards and 11 touchdowns.

QB

Carson Palmer: 296 of 477 passing for 3242 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions; 29 rushes for 55 yards and 1 touchdown.

J.T. OSullivan: 18 of 32 passing for 214 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 2 rushes for 7 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jordan Palmer: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

RB

Cedric Benson: 146 rushes for 577 yards and 3 touchdowns; 15 receptions for 110 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Bernard Scott: 121 rushes for 513 yards and 3 touchdowns; 23 receptions for 178 yards and 1 touchdown.

Brian Leonard: 142 rushes for 560 yards and 3 touchdowns; 32 receptions for 219 yards and 1 touchdown.

Fui Vakapuna: 22 rushes for 91 yards and 1 touchdowns; 8 receptions for 55 yards and 0 touchdowns.

WR

Chad Ochocinco: 78 receptions for 1084 yards and 7 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 12 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Antonio Bryant: 16 receptions for 234 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Andre Caldwell: 31 receptions for 302 yards and 2 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 12 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Matt Jones: 52 receptions for 654 yards and 5 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 12 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Quan Cosby: 12 receptions for 157 yards and 1 touchdown; 1 rushes for 4 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jerome Simpson: 1 receptions for 10 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Maurice Purify: 1 receptions for 10 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

TE

Dan Coats: 7 receptions for 69 yards and 1 touchdown.

Chase Coffman: 14 receptions for 144 yards and 1 touchdown.

Darius Hill: 0 receptions for 5 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jermaine Gresham: 23 receptions for 225 yards and 2 touchdowns.

 

[gandalas]

Where are the projections for Jordan Shipley? I figure he will contribute something to this offense this season, yes? Did you just forget him?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Where are the projections for Jordan Shipley? I figure he will contribute something to this offense this season, yes? Did you just forget him?

Oops, yes.I figure Shipley will be behind OchoCinco, Jones, Caldwell, and Bryant in the rotation. So maybe about 13 catches for 178 yards and a TD? Or do you see more work for him than that?

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Leonard 4 carries short of Benson....what happened....did he drive a boat drunk again?

 

[JAM]

Antonio Bryant 16 receptions, Matt Jones 52 ?

Is this a typo or do you actually envision this kind of split? Any basis or just gut?

 

[The Man With No Name]

Antonio Bryant 16 receptions, Matt Jones 52 ?Is this a typo or do you actually envision this kind of split? Any basis or just gut?

Matt Jones will be #4 or #5 wr if he even makes the team. Ocho Cinco and Bryant are 1-2That is according to Joe Reedy, Bengals beat writer for the Cincinnati Enquirer

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Antonio Bryant 16 receptions, Matt Jones 52 ?Is this a typo or do you actually envision this kind of split? Any basis or just gut?

Not a typo.It's not based on anything I've heard. It's based on the fact that I think Jones is a much more talented receiver than Bryant. Bryant really didn't play all that well last year (I know he was in a tough situation with the Buccaneers' passing game), and I think Jones has the ability to be a real playmaker if he gets serious about his career. We'll see how things look during training camp. It certainly wouldn't shock me for Jones to keep wasting his potential, or for Bryant to return to his 2008 form, when I thought he played very well.

 

[dmac37]

The Benson projection is just plain silly, I did not think these projections predicted injuries or drunken suspensions. He will be top 5 in carries barring an injury or suspension.

 

[Dragon1952]

Those are basically Palmer's stats from last year. I can't believe he won't improve on the yards and TD's quite a bit given his increase in weapons.

 

[Dragon1952]

Antonio Bryant 16 receptions, Matt Jones 52 ?Is this a typo or do you actually envision this kind of split? Any basis or just gut?

Not a typo.It's not based on anything I've heard. It's based on the fact that I think Jones is a much more talented receiver than Bryant. Bryant really didn't play all that well last year (I know he was in a tough situation with the Buccaneers' passing game), and I think Jones has the ability to be a real playmaker if he gets serious about his career. We'll see how things look during training camp. It certainly wouldn't shock me for Jones to keep wasting his potential, or for Bryant to return to his 2008 form, when I thought he played very well.

I'm sorry, but 16 receptions???...that's ludicrous.

 

[domvin]

Antonio Bryant 16 receptions, Matt Jones 52 ?Is this a typo or do you actually envision this kind of split? Any basis or just gut?

Not a typo.It's not based on anything I've heard. It's based on the fact that I think Jones is a much more talented receiver than Bryant. Bryant really didn't play all that well last year (I know he was in a tough situation with the Buccaneers' passing game), and I think Jones has the ability to be a real playmaker if he gets serious about his career. We'll see how things look during training camp. It certainly wouldn't shock me for Jones to keep wasting his potential, or for Bryant to return to his 2008 form, when I thought he played very well.

Antonio Bryant played the whole year with a knee injury. I think his lackluster stats are twofold: the injury, and the poor qb play.he has a "real" qb for the first time in his career

 

[cvnpoka]

lol at bryant 16 receptions.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I probably went too far out on a limb on M.Jones and A.Bryant. I'll reel myself back in a little.

 

[NorrisB]

These are the worst projections Ive ever seen

 

[Multiple Scores]

I've noticed some real problems I have with some of these projections, In the Texans thread it has Slaton down for averaging 4 rushes per game, I thought the numbers for Alex Smith and Crabtree were low in the 49ers thread... but this team has some projections I just can't get down with. The projections for the RBS where Benson/Scott/Leonard are pretty much equal is interesting and so are the Matt Jones/Antonio Bryant projections. We're all entitled to our opinions but after seeing the projections for the Bengals team I'm going to have a hard time taking any of the other projections seriously.

 

[fsufan]

do not understand the carries for the RBs. why would Benson only get 4 more carries than Leonard. Lewis is a 1 RB coach when he has his work horse. just look at Benson last year and the Rudi days

 

[NorrisB]

Really expected better from MT

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

ouch

 

[DoubleG]

I've noticed some real problems I have with some of these projections, In the Texans thread it has Slaton down for averaging 4 rushes per game, I thought the numbers for Alex Smith and Crabtree were low in the 49ers thread... but this team has some projections I just can't get down with. The projections for the RBS where Benson/Scott/Leonard are pretty much equal is interesting (interesting is being kind) and so are the Matt Jones/Antonio Bryant projections. We're all entitled to our opinions but after seeing the projections for the Bengals team I'm going to have a hard time taking any of the other projections seriously.

This. Sorry MT, normally you bring your A game, but some of these numbers (Crabtree, Benson, even DeSean Jackson having only 5 TDs next year) are just wayyyyy off. Maybe you should have spent a little more time on each team instead of rushing to get them out all in one day.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I'm way off on Benson. I just went back to my notes from the Bengals games I covered last year for the upgrades/downgrades feature, so that I could give you my thinking on why I expect him to decline so drastically . . . and I can't. I honestly don't know what I was thinking. My notes on him are quite positive (as a rusher, not as a receiver).

Revised draft coming in a sec . . .

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Overall

509 pass attempts for 313 receptions, 3458 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions; 468 rushes for 1838 yards and 11 touchdowns.

QB

Carson Palmer: 295 of 477 passing for 3244 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions; 29 rushes for 55 yards and 1 touchdowns.

J.T. OSullivan: 18 of 32 passing for 214 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 2 rushes for 7 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jordan Palmer: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

RB

Cedric Benson: 237 rushes for 936 yards and 5 touchdowns; 15 receptions for 110 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Bernard Scott: 95 rushes for 404 yards and 2 touchdowns; 23 receptions for 179 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Brian Leonard: 78 rushes for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns; 32 receptions for 220 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Fui Vakapuna: 22 rushes for 91 yards and 1 touchdowns; 8 receptions for 55 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Cedric Peerman: 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

WR

Chad Ochocinco: 75 receptions for 1031 yards and 7 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 12 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Antonio Bryant: 28 receptions for 398 yards and 2 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Andre Caldwell: 31 receptions for 302 yards and 2 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 12 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Matt Jones: 32 receptions for 398 yards and 3 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 12 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Quan Cosby: 10 receptions for 132 yards and 1 touchdowns; 1 rushes for 4 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jerome Simpson: 1 receptions for 10 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Maurice Purify: 1 receptions for 10 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jordan Shipley: 13 receptions for 170 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

TE

Dan Coats: 7 receptions for 69 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Chase Coffman: 15 receptions for 145 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Darius Hill: 0 receptions for 5 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jermaine Gresham: 23 receptions for 226 yards and 2 touchdowns.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Love the premise of cranking all these puppies out. Was a little surprised there were 17 replies already (compared to 0 for some) until I saw the projections.

Of course what's also interesting is that nobody else has thrown their own into the ring. As a Bengals homer, I'll give it a shot at this premature hour.

I will start by saying I project the following:

QBs: Duh.

RBs. Benson, Leonard, Scott, Fui, with a mystery veteran RB that's usually inactive around as well.

WRs: Ocho, Bryant, Shipley, Caldwell, Briscoe, Cosby (We'll see about Matt Jones, I'll tenatively say that he doesn't make it, though I think it is between him, Quan, and maybe Purify - though Purify's stats would be more likely measured in pancakes if he's on the team)

TEs: Kelly (I'm assuming they'll get it done - I'm praying it actually since otherwise it's Dan Coats 2.0), Gresham, Coffman

I am too lazy to make the numbers agree btw Maybe I'll fix this later

QB

Carson Palmer: 308 of 470 passing for 3327 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions; 29 rushes for 44 yards and 1 touchdown (counting kneel downs)

J.T. OSullivan: 7 of 16 passing for 108 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception; 2 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jordan Palmer: 57 pitches for his Run Pee app.

RB

Cedric Benson: 298 rushes for 1305 yards and 8 touchdowns; 10 receptions for 84 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Bernard Scott: 83 rushes for 343 yards and 2 touchdowns; 7 receptions for 78 yards and 1 touchdown.

Brian Leonard: 33 rushes for 112 yards and 1 touchdown; 24 receptions for 200 yards and 2 touchdown (and like 32 1st downs )

Fui Vakapuna: 5 rushes for 9 yards and 0 touchdowns; 5 receptions for 28 yards and 0 touchdowns.

WR

Chad Ochocinco: 78 receptions for 1084 yards and 7 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Antonio Bryant: 50 receptions for 523 yards and 5 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 17 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Andre Caldwell: 31 receptions for 302 yards and 2 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jordan Shipley: 24 receptions for 276 yards and 2 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Dez Briscoe: 18 receptions for 221 yards and 1 touchdown; 6 rushes for 41 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Quan Cosby: 12 receptions for 137 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

TE

Jermaine Gresham: 30 receptions for 278 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Reggie Kelly: 12 receptions for 80 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Chase Coffman: 14 receptions for 144 yards and 0 touchdown.

So there you go. Actually I tracked back and made the numbers match

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

I was typing my projections as MT was posting his update, btw.

-QG

 

[cvnpoka]

what are chances bryant has more yards than ocho?

 

[doowain]

These are the worst projections Ive ever seen

This.Man....these are brutal. Benson had 301 carries last year and missed 3 games. What part of that says he's not the featured back? Not to get confrontational, but did you even watch any Bengals games last year? Because not seeing him play is the only excuse for making this assumption, IMO. He was impressive last year. All you have to do is watch the playoff game vs. the Jets to get a feel for how well he played all year.Bryant is far superior to Jones talent wise. I understand having different views on players, but that one isn't even close. Matt Jones is/was an athletic freak, but Antonio Bryant is far superior as a WR. By your projections they are gonna pay Bryant roughly $500,000 per reception this year. Heh.I know you can't be plugged in to every team, but I expect better from an admin.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Man....these are brutal.

Sorry to disappoint you.My first draft of Bengals projections was admittedly pretty bad. As I said, I don't know what I was thinking re Benson. The revised projections should be less bad, and plenty of future revisions will come.The point of posting the Team Spotlight threads, though, wasn't to highlight my own first drafts of projections (although it's understandable that it happened since I went first); it was to provide a forum for everyone to list/discuss their projections.

 

[Kirby]

I don't know how anyone can project the WRs right now. I'm guessing they keep 3 out of Jones, Shipley, Cosby, Simpson, Purify, and Briscoe... but who knows which 3.

 

[Rushmore]

I don't know how anyone can project the WRs right now. I'm guessing they keep 3 out of Jones, Shipley, Cosby, Simpson, Purify, and Briscoe... but who knows which 3.

Yep, major logjam at Wr. I think you can kiss Simpson goodbye. Purify is probably gone too. After that things get very tight though, depending on how Jones looks in camp. And theres no way they can sneak Briscoe on the practice squad, as he would be snatched up immediately.

 

[QuizGuy66]

I don't know how anyone can project the WRs right now. I'm guessing they keep 3 out of Jones, Shipley, Cosby, Simpson, Purify, and Briscoe... but who knows which 3.

LOL, I had to try Kirby. This time last year, the projections for Foschi were a little low too MT certainly got the discussion going, so that's good -QG

 

[cheese]

If A.Bryant isn't 2nd on this team in receiving yards I will be absolutely shocked. I'm not convinced that Matt Jones will even make the team and if he does I think he is considerably behind 85, Bryant, Caldwell, and Shipley.

 

[Verbal Kint]

Ocho and Bryant make the team. I believe Purify, Brown or Davis get cut. That leaves 4 spots left for Simpson, Jones, Briscoe, Caldwell, Cosby & Shipley.

Caldwell, Cosby & Shipley all have a similar skill set, as do Simpson, Jones, Briscoe (ostensibly). I have to imagine they keep 2 from each group. My guess is that Cosby and Simpson are the odd men out.

 

[cvnpoka]

cosby was a decent kick returner last year. can briscoe or shipley fill that roll?

 

[finito]

Revised projections look much better to me, though I still think Benson is low. Unless he's going to miss a few games I don't see him not getting 1100+ yds.

 

[az_prof]

Revised projections look much better to me, though I still think Benson is low. Unless he's going to miss a few games I don't see him not getting 1100+ yds.

I agree. The RBs look about right to me but I am still not sold on passing game. Depends on how much Palmer improves I suppose. I also think Bryant will be the clear WR2 and that he and Ocho will have close to the same numbers and the other WRs will be pretty invisible.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I am curious as to your total scrimmage plays for the Bengals. Reviewing the past three years the Bengals have been above the league average in scrimmage plays in the two years Carson started all 16 games. Even in '08 when the Bengals were a complete train wreck they were only 6 plays below the league average.

Your current totals have the Bengals running 977 scrimmage plays. The league total over the last three years is 1,000. I would at least project the Bengals to meet the league average for total scrimmage plays.

You also project the Bengals to run the ball 47% of the time. While the Bengals rushed the ball 50% of the time last season, their three year average is 45% of the time (which is inflated due to last seasons splits). So the question then becomes will the 2010 Bengals resemble last year's team or the pass happy Bengal teams from previous seasons?

Reviewing the Bengals off season moves have had a heavy emphasis on improving their passing game with the signing of Bryant and Jones, then drafting Gresham and Shipley. My hunch is that the Bengals want to emphasize the pass game more this coming season.

I have the Bengals running 1,020 scrimmage plays, rushing the ball 45% of the time, and allowing 5% sacks.

I like Benson and Ocho Cinco to be at or near last year's production levels.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I know it's very unusual for a rookie TE to have an impact, and that it's been a long time since the Bengals threw the ball to a TE. But they didn't burn the #21 on a pass-catching TE to have him run block. And the role of #2 passing target in Cincy is wide open. I think something like 35-40 catches is pretty likely this year.

I'd also bump #85 over last year if Palmer's arm is any stronger. By all accounts he was WFO all year and Palmer just couldn't get him the ball.

 

[footballman_696969]

QB

Carson Palmer: 317 of 512 passing for 3482 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions; 32 rushes for 58 yards and 1 touchdown

RB

Cedric Benson: 336 rushes for 1411 yards and 8 touchdowns; 21 receptions for 147 yards and 0 touchdowns

Bernard Scott: 96 rushes for 403 yards and 2 touchdowns; 8 receptions for 64 yards and 0 touchdown

Brian Leonard: 32 rushes for 112 yards and 0 touchdown; 32 receptions for 224 yards and 1 touchdown

WR

Chad Ochocinco: 76 receptions for 1102 yards and 8 touchdowns

Antonio Bryant: 52 receptions for 754 yards and 5 touchdowns

Andre Caldwell: 40 receptions for 400 yards and 3 touchdowns

Jordan Shipley: 24 receptions for 288 yards and 1 touchdown

Matt Jones: 20 receptions for 260 yards and 2 touchdowns

TE

Jermaine Gresham: 32 receptions for 320 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Chase Coffman: 12 receptions for 120 yards and 1 touchdown

Thoughts?

 

[Multiple Scores]

QBCarson Palmer: 317 of 512 passing for 3482 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions; 32 rushes for 58 yards and 1 touchdownRBCedric Benson: 336 rushes for 1411 yards and 8 touchdowns; 21 receptions for 147 yards and 0 touchdownsBernard Scott: 96 rushes for 403 yards and 2 touchdowns; 8 receptions for 64 yards and 0 touchdownBrian Leonard: 32 rushes for 112 yards and 0 touchdown; 32 receptions for 224 yards and 1 touchdownWRChad Ochocinco: 76 receptions for 1102 yards and 8 touchdownsAntonio Bryant: 52 receptions for 754 yards and 5 touchdownsAndre Caldwell: 40 receptions for 400 yards and 3 touchdownsJordan Shipley: 24 receptions for 288 yards and 1 touchdownMatt Jones: 20 receptions for 260 yards and 2 touchdownsTEJermaine Gresham: 32 receptions for 320 yards and 2 touchdowns.Chase Coffman: 12 receptions for 120 yards and 1 touchdownThoughts?

good job, not a single disagreement.

 

[Routilla]

Would anyone care to break down the CIN DEF/ST? I seem to remember they were a fairly serviceable group last year.

 

[notdarkyet]

I am not much for projecting stats, but I will throw in my thoughts on the WR situation.

1. I dont see Matt Jones making the squad. Some of the spring practices I recall him leaving a bad impression.

2. When thinking about the WR situation, remember that they don't necessarily need to have a return guy in the mix, with Adam Jones on the team able to fill that role.

3. Shipley will be there. He was drafted for a reason.

4. My gut says this will be the last chance for Simpson, but he will get that shot.

I think we are looking at Chad, Bryant, Caldwell, Shipley, Simpson and maaaybe Briscoe.

As far as the DST, from what I have read they will really be looking to get after the QB and supposedly have been focusing on forcing turnovers and not only that, but taking those turnovers to the house. Their pair of corners in Hall and Joeseph are amongst the best duo's in the league, and I really expect to see some INT's out of them, especially if the front 7 can get to the QB as they have been focusing on. Adam Jones should be a pretty solid 3rd corner and I would also expect to see some PR and KR work as well. Adding him alongside Bernard Scott who did well in the return game could prove quite dynamic. IIRC this was the #4 defense in the NFL last season. They certainly have not gotten worse. The front 7 has a lot of young talent, Michael Johnson could potentially be a monster sack guy, they will find a way to get him on the field, either in a DE or OLB role. They have the potential to put up some fantasy numbers. Some of it will depend on the Offense's ability to eat clock but still put up points. When this defense gets to play with a lead and pin their ears back on a one dimension team trying to throw, you will see turnovers. This is a squad I will try to steal as my 2nd DST and hope they manage to blow up like I think they have the potential to.

 

[Routilla]

I am not much for projecting stats, but I will throw in my thoughts on the WR situation.1. I dont see Matt Jones making the squad. Some of the spring practices I recall him leaving a bad impression.2. When thinking about the WR situation, remember that they don't necessarily need to have a return guy in the mix, with Adam Jones on the team able to fill that role.3. Shipley will be there. He was drafted for a reason.4. My gut says this will be the last chance for Simpson, but he will get that shot.I think we are looking at Chad, Bryant, Caldwell, Shipley, Simpson and maaaybe Briscoe.As far as the DST, from what I have read they will really be looking to get after the QB and supposedly have been focusing on forcing turnovers and not only that, but taking those turnovers to the house. Their pair of corners in Hall and Joeseph are amongst the best duo's in the league, and I really expect to see some INT's out of them, especially if the front 7 can get to the QB as they have been focusing on. Adam Jones should be a pretty solid 3rd corner and I would also expect to see some PR and KR work as well. Adding him alongside Bernard Scott who did well in the return game could prove quite dynamic. IIRC this was the #4 defense in the NFL last season. They certainly have not gotten worse. The front 7 has a lot of young talent, Michael Johnson could potentially be a monster sack guy, they will find a way to get him on the field, either in a DE or OLB role. They have the potential to put up some fantasy numbers. Some of it will depend on the Offense's ability to eat clock but still put up points. When this defense gets to play with a lead and pin their ears back on a one dimension team trying to throw, you will see turnovers. This is a squad I will try to steal as my 2nd DST and hope they manage to blow up like I think they have the potential to.

Nice analysis. I am seeing them go around DEF #12 so I am thinking they offer nice value.