Team Spotlight: Green Bay Packers (1 Viewer)

[Maurile Tremblay]

See the pinned thread for links to each team spotlight.

I'll start off by posting my projections to get us going. The idea is for others to post their own projections as well, or to comment on the projections posted by others.

Overall

548 pass attempts for 346 receptions, 4079 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions; 434 rushes for 1853 yards and 15 touchdowns.

QB

Aaron Rodgers: 325 of 513 passing for 3851 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions; 59 rushes for 261 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Matt Flynn: 20 of 34 passing for 228 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 4 rushes for 7 yards and 0 touchdowns.

RB

Ryan Grant: 259 rushes for 1115 yards and 8 touchdowns; 25 receptions for 166 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Brandon Jackson: 37 rushes for 151 yards and 1 touchdowns; 25 receptions for 175 yards and 1 touchdowns.

DeShawn Wynn: 26 rushes for 114 yards and 1 touchdowns; 4 receptions for 31 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Korey Hall: 4 rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns; 1 receptions for 4 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Quinn Johnson: 4 rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns; 1 receptions for 4 yards and 0 touchdowns.

John Kuhn: 4 rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns; 1 receptions for 4 yards and 0 touchdowns.

James Starks: 37 rushes for 154 yards and 1 touchdowns; 6 receptions for 43 yards and 0 touchdowns.

WR

Greg Jennings: 75 receptions for 1109 yards and 8 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 2 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Donald Driver: 51 receptions for 676 yards and 4 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 2 yards and 0 touchdowns.

James Jones: 25 receptions for 332 yards and 2 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 1 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jordy Nelson: 41 receptions for 505 yards and 3 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 1 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Brett Swain: 4 receptions for 48 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

TE

Jermichael Finley: 80 receptions for 901 yards and 7 touchdowns.

Donald Lee: 9 receptions for 80 yards and 1 touchdowns.

 

[smackdaddies]

I would add Andrew Quarless, TE in for 10 catches, 130 yards, 1 TD, take it out of J. Finley' numbers

 

[smackdaddies]

If you play in league with return yards and IDP, Sam Shields might become interesting - he is so crazy fast

I would say it is possible for a total of 3 TD's - could be a low cost addition in a total points league if the team roster is big enough

Probably over thinking.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

If you play in league with return yards and IDP, Sam Shields might become interesting - he is so crazy fastI would say it is possible for a total of 3 TD's - could be a low cost addition in a total points league if the team roster is big enoughProbably over thinking.

2 career returns in college....plus one reverse (that one went for a TD)....not really "Hester" even though he is from the U.

 

[cr8f]

I would add Andrew Quarless, TE in for 10 catches, 130 yards, 1 TD, take it out of J. Finley' numbers

Add in Spencer Havner 4 catches 3 touchdowns.

 

[smackdaddies]

If you play in league with return yards and IDP, Sam Shields might become interesting - he is so crazy fastI would say it is possible for a total of 3 TD's - could be a low cost addition in a total points league if the team roster is big enoughProbably over thinking.

2 career returns in college....plus one reverse (that one went for a TD)....not really "Hester" even though he is from the U.

ok, just color me a hopeless fan

 

[cr8f]

If you play in league with return yards and IDP, Sam Shields might become interesting - he is so crazy fastI would say it is possible for a total of 3 TD's - could be a low cost addition in a total points league if the team roster is big enoughProbably over thinking.

2 career returns in college....plus one reverse (that one went for a TD)....not really "Hester" even though he is from the U.

ok, just color me a hopeless fan

I like him too but at this point I just hope he replaces Bush.

 

[jurrassic]

They're not going to keep 7 rb's so those numbers will need to be adjusted. Wynn won't make the team and most likely Hall or Kuhn is gone. If they keep the same number of players on offense this year, you have to account for the roster the previous year. They kept 3 fb's and 2 qb's last year. That wont' happen again. They either keep 3 qb's, 4 te's, or keep another lineman. They wont' go into the season with 7 rb's. I think they will go in with 5.

 

[Tau837]

Maurile:

1. You are projecting 41 offensive TDs. Last season, Green Bay had 50. Most of the drop (6 of the 9 TDs) is for Rodgers. Is there a particular reason for this or are you just accounting for regression to the mean?

2. Please explain why you project some players with 0 rushes but positive rushing yards. (Admittedly, not much.) Seems odd.

3. Please explain why you have Nelson with such better numbers than Jones. You are essentially projecting a reversal of what happened last season. Jones actually started 3 games last year, and I have been thinking he is the guy in line to replace Driver in the starting lineup at some point.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

2. Please explain why you project some players with 0 rushes but positive rushing yards. (Admittedly, not much.) Seems odd.

I assume this is a rounding thing. e.g., he's projecting 0.3 rushes for 2 yards, which rounds to 0 rushes for 2 yds. Just a guess.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

2. Please explain why you project some players with 0 rushes but positive rushing yards. (Admittedly, not much.) Seems odd.

I assume this is a rounding thing. e.g., he's projecting 0.3 rushes for 2 yards, which rounds to 0 rushes for 2 yds. Just a guess.

Yes. Essentially, I am projecting 1 rush for about 6 yards for the WRs as a group -- but I don't know which WR will get it.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

1. You are projecting 41 offensive TDs. Last season, Green Bay had 50. Most of the drop (6 of the 9 TDs) is for Rodgers. Is there a particular reason for this or are you just accounting for regression to the mean?

I've got Rogers as my #1 fantasy QB, but yeah, I think he'll regress to the mean a bit on his TDs.

3. Please explain why you have Nelson with such better numbers than Jones. You are essentially projecting a reversal of what happened last season. Jones actually started 3 games last year, and I have been thinking he is the guy in line to replace Driver in the starting lineup at some point.

Jones did get more snaps than Nelson last year, particularly in the middle of the season when Nelson was out with a knee injury. But while Jones did make some big plays, overall I thought Nelson showed more promise. Jones dropped a few balls early in the season and again late in the season. Nelson showed good hands and concentration, and some nice RAC ability. I just think Nelson will be the better player, and ultimately the better player will get more work.(On a side note, I see Driver's decline coming faster than most others do.)

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

I'm unclear why Rogers production would drop while his mistakes increase when he should have a far more stable line in front of him. He is young and one might guess still ascendant in his skills. With a more stabile situation I don't see him being appreciably worse than last year. Better, likely not, but substantially worse, also likely not.

 

[griz145389]

I'm unclear why Rogers production would drop while his mistakes increase when he should have a far more stable line in front of him. He is young and one might guess still ascendant in his skills. With a more stabile situation I don't see him being appreciably worse than last year. Better, likely not, but substantially worse, also likely not.

The competition is looking like it is going to be tougher this year.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

I'm unclear why Rogers production would drop while his mistakes increase when he should have a far more stable line in front of him. He is young and one might guess still ascendant in his skills. With a more stabile situation I don't see him being appreciably worse than last year. Better, likely not, but substantially worse, also likely not.

The competition is looking like it is going to be tougher this year.

Prior year (year N) strength of schedule has practically zero predictive power for year N+1. So looking at last season's competition is borderline meaningless.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I'm unclear why Rogers production would drop while his mistakes increase when he should have a far more stable line in front of him. He is young and one might guess still ascendant in his skills. With a more stabile situation I don't see him being appreciably worse than last year. Better, likely not, but substantially worse, also likely not.

I should probably include a general note on this up in the pinned thread. But in almost every thread, the common criticism is that the players aren't projected for enough yards or touchdowns.If a player was good last year; he'll be good again. If a player was bad last year, he'll improve.

By that way of thinking, overall offensive NFL stats should probably increase by about 10% each year. But they don't.

The truth is that players who were really good one year are typically less good the following year.

I hear what you're saying about the the GB offensive line likely improving and about Rogers being at a stage in his career when he should keep improving. You may well be right, and I may well bump up his production in future versions of my projections.

For now, I just wanted to point out, in a general way, that (a) my league-wide projection totals are consistent with historical norms, and are probably about right; (b) I value all the feedback I'm getting in these threads, do take it seriously, and do re-think things based on it; but (c) when 90%+ of the comments are that my projections for so-and-so are too low rather than too high (when in reality I'm probably off equally often in both directions), it makes me jaded toward the comments that my projections for so-and-so are too low. (It does make me sit up and take notice in the rare case that someone thinks my projections for so-and-so are too high, however.)

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

I'm unclear why Rogers production would drop while his mistakes increase when he should have a far more stable line in front of him. He is young and one might guess still ascendant in his skills. With a more stabile situation I don't see him being appreciably worse than last year. Better, likely not, but substantially worse, also likely not.

I should probably include a general note on this up in the pinned thread. But in almost every thread, the common criticism is that the players aren't projected for enough yards or touchdowns.If a player was good last year; he'll be good again. If a player was bad last year, he'll improve.

By that way of thinking, overall offensive NFL stats should probably increase by about 10% each year. But they don't.

The truth is that players who were really good one year are typically less good the following year.

I hear what you're saying about the the GB offensive line likely improving and about Rogers being at a stage in his career when he should keep improving. You may well be right, and I may well bump up his production in future versions of my projections.

For now, I just wanted to point out, in a general way, that (a) my league-wide projection totals are consistent with historical norms, and are probably about right; (b) I value all the feedback I'm getting in these threads, do take it seriously, and do re-think things based on it; but (c) when 90%+ of the comments are that my projections for so-and-so are too low rather than too high (when in reality I'm probably off equally often in both directions), it makes me jaded toward the comments that my projections for so-and-so are too low. (It does make me sit up and take notice in the rare case that someone thinks my projections for so-and-so are too high, however.)

Great explanation MT. In particular, I found it interesting that you did the back-end check to see if your league-wide projection totals are consistent with historical norms. That is awesome.BTW - your projections for Jennings are too low. [disclosure: yes, I'm a Jennings owner]

 

[karmarooster]

well if rodgers numbers look low, as they do to me also, perhaps its because of Flynn's stats. could you explain your method for the backup QB? ie is a certain percentage for every team, or is it specific to each team? are you projecting Flynn to cover for an injury, or blow-out mop-up duty?

and speaking of numbers being too high, Flynn has in his career just 9 completions for 64 yards. if you took, say, half of Flynn's numbers and added them to Rodgers, along with Rodgers' rushing numbers, he's still looking at a great season - 3900-4000 yards, 27 TDs passing, 250 yards rushing and 4 TDs rushing. that would seem to account for Rodger's talent and excellent WR corps while still regressing to the mean in yardage and TDs.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

well if rodgers numbers look low, as they do to me also, perhaps its because of Flynn's stats. could you explain your method for the backup QB? ie is a certain percentage for every team, or is it specific to each team? are you projecting Flynn to cover for an injury, or blow-out mop-up duty?

For simplicity's sake, in normal situations where a QB's job security isn't in doubt, and where he's not a particularly high injury risk, I give the starter 15 games and the backup 1 game.(Based on the average number of games missed due to injury each season, including situations like when Tom Brady missed 15.5 games a few years ago, each starter can expect to play fewer than 15 games -- maybe closer to 14 games. But I don't think the exact split is important as long as I use the same fraction for each solid starting QB.)Where a QB's grasp on the starting job is less secure, or where I think he's a particular injury risk, I reduce the starter's percentage of projected snaps accordingly.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

1. You are projecting 41 offensive TDs. Last season, Green Bay had 50. Most of the drop (6 of the 9 TDs) is for Rodgers. Is there a particular reason for this or are you just accounting for regression to the mean?

I've got Rogers as my #1 fantasy QB, but yeah, I think he'll regress to the mean a bit on his TDs.

3. Please explain why you have Nelson with such better numbers than Jones. You are essentially projecting a reversal of what happened last season. Jones actually started 3 games last year, and I have been thinking he is the guy in line to replace Driver in the starting lineup at some point.

Jones did get more snaps than Nelson last year, particularly in the middle of the season when Nelson was out with a knee injury. But while Jones did make some big plays, overall I thought Nelson showed more promise. Jones dropped a few balls early in the season and again late in the season. Nelson showed good hands and concentration, and some nice RAC ability. I just think Nelson will be the better player, and ultimately the better player will get more work.(On a side note, I see Driver's decline coming faster than most others do.)

I'm now in agreement with your Jones/Nelson predictions. I think Nelson will put up marginally better numbers this year. I also don't think either one will have a fantasy impact. Too many quality options for Rodgers (please note he does spell Rodgers with a "D"). Also Donald Lee's spot on this team is very much in jeopardy. He's either getting replaced this year or next. With Quarless in the fold, my guess is its this year. Lee can't be counted on as a receiver, and he's just above adequate as a blocker. My guess is they'll go with Finley/Havner/Quarless this year.

 

[sho nuff]

If you play in league with return yards and IDP, Sam Shields might become interesting - he is so crazy fastI would say it is possible for a total of 3 TD's - could be a low cost addition in a total points league if the team roster is big enoughProbably over thinking.

Id hope so...but in minicamps he was sucking big time catching the ball.Super fast...but thus far can't field a kick or a punt well enough to be trusted as a return guy. We will see if he picks anything up during TC.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm unclear why Rogers production would drop while his mistakes increase when he should have a far more stable line in front of him. He is young and one might guess still ascendant in his skills. With a more stabile situation I don't see him being appreciably worse than last year. Better, likely not, but substantially worse, also likely not.

The competition is looking like it is going to be tougher this year.

Prior year (year N) strength of schedule has practically zero predictive power for year N+1. So looking at last season's competition is borderline meaningless.

Whie this is true,Rodgers last year had the 3rd easiest schedule in the league. So if you project every QB to have an average strength of schedule this season, his competition will be a bit tougher in 2010.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I'm unclear why Rogers production would drop while his mistakes increase when he should have a far more stable line in front of him. He is young and one might guess still ascendant in his skills. With a more stabile situation I don't see him being appreciably worse than last year. Better, likely not, but substantially worse, also likely not.

The competition is looking like it is going to be tougher this year.

Prior year (year N) strength of schedule has practically zero predictive power for year N+1. So looking at last season's competition is borderline meaningless.

Whie this is true,Rodgers last year had the 3rd easiest schedule in the league. So if you project every QB to have an average strength of schedule this season, his competition will be a bit tougher in 2010.

I'm comfortable saying that Rogers will face competition that is tougher based on your comment -- 3rd easiest strength of schedule is a fact -- but I chafe when people throw out blanket statements like "his competition looks tough this year" or "he has an easy schedule this year".Long story short: I concur with your way of looking at it, while at the same time continuing to beat the drum that folks think prior year SOS is way more predictive than it is. :(