Team Spotlight: New York Jets (1 Viewer)

[Maurile Tremblay]

See the pinned thread for links to each team spotlight.

I'll start off by posting my projections to get us going. The idea is for others to post their own projections as well, or to comment on the projections posted by others.

Overall

473 pass attempts for 273 receptions, 3288 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions; 524 rushes for 2207 yards and 16 touchdowns.

QB

Mark Sanchez: 256 of 444 passing for 3090 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions; 39 rushes for 110 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Kellen Clemens: 17 of 30 passing for 199 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 3 rushes for 7 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Erik Ainge: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Kevin OConnell: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

RB

Shonn Greene: 288 rushes for 1234 yards and 7 touchdowns; 16 receptions for 116 yards and 0 touchdowns.

LaDainian Tomlinson: 94 rushes for 402 yards and 5 touchdowns; 12 receptions for 87 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Joe McKnight: 58 rushes for 235 yards and 2 touchdowns; 6 receptions for 41 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Danny Woodhead: 4 rushes for 18 yards and 0 touchdowns; 2 receptions for 12 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Chauncey Washington: 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns; 1 receptions for 6 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Tony Richardson: 4 rushes for 18 yards and 0 touchdowns; 4 receptions for 28 yards and 0 touchdowns.

WR

Jerricho Cotchery: 79 receptions for 987 yards and 5 touchdowns; 3 rushes for 18 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Santonio Holmes: 41 receptions for 622 yards and 4 touchdowns; 7 rushes for 37 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Braylon Edwards: 36 receptions for 523 yards and 4 touchdowns; 10 rushes for 55 yards and 0 touchdowns.

David Clowney: 15 receptions for 199 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Brad Smith: 9 receptions for 88 yards and 1 touchdowns; 13 rushes for 73 yards and 0 touchdowns.

TE

Dustin Keller: 51 receptions for 549 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Ben Hartsock: 3 receptions for 31 yards and 0 touchdowns.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Cotchery is high.

McKnight with 2 receptions more than Richardson is interesting as well.

 

[Rovers]

Holmes misses 4 games and still out produces Edwards? Really? I think Sanchez's numbers are slightly low too. I look for the Jets to have a more balanced offense, and I look for Tomlinson to get more touches as well.

I know projections are projections, but after looking at the Jets and Giants, I find myself in disagreement, significant disagreement. But, if we all agreed, it owuld just be a numbers crunching hobby. It has it's place, but stats can't replace gut feel and knowing a team well. FBG has always put a bit too much weight on numbers and statisical analisys IMO anyway. The past does not mean the future.

 

[dmac37]

See the pinned thread for links to each team spotlight.

I'll start off by posting my projections to get us going. The idea is for others to post their own projections as well, or to comment on the projections posted by others.

Overall

473 pass attempts for 273 receptions, 3288 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions; 524 rushes for 2207 yards and 16 touchdowns.

QB

Mark Sanchez: 256 of 444 passing for 3090 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions; 39 rushes for 110 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Kellen Clemens: 17 of 30 passing for 199 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 3 rushes for 7 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Erik Ainge: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Kevin OConnell: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

RB

Shonn Greene: 288 rushes for 1234 yards and 7 touchdowns; 16 receptions for 116 yards and 0 touchdowns.

LaDainian Tomlinson: 94 rushes for 402 yards and 5 touchdowns; 12 receptions for 87 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Joe McKnight: 58 rushes for 235 yards and 2 touchdowns; 6 receptions for 41 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Danny Woodhead: 4 rushes for 18 yards and 0 touchdowns; 2 receptions for 12 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Chauncey Washington: 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns; 1 receptions for 6 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Tony Richardson: 4 rushes for 18 yards and 0 touchdowns; 4 receptions for 28 yards and 0 touchdowns.

WR

Jerricho Cotchery: 79 receptions for 987 yards and 5 touchdowns; 3 rushes for 18 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Santonio Holmes: 41 receptions for 622 yards and 4 touchdowns; 7 rushes for 37 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Braylon Edwards: 36 receptions for 523 yards and 4 touchdowns; 10 rushes for 55 yards and 0 touchdowns.

David Clowney: 15 receptions for 199 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Brad Smith: 9 receptions for 88 yards and 1 touchdowns; 13 rushes for 73 yards and 0 touchdowns.

TE

Dustin Keller: 51 receptions for 549 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Ben Hartsock: 3 receptions for 31 yards and 0 touchdowns.

I really think Cotchery will rack up the most FF points in PPR and is the value play here but yes it may be a bit optimistic to expect Cotchery to double the receptions of Edwards & Holmes.

 

[Reaper]

Overall, I see how MT gets at these numbers - Bump up the passing game a little. Knock down the Run game that ran the ball a ton....

But, the stat that jumps out at me the most from the Charger fan is: LaDainian Tomlinson: 12 receptions for 87 yards and 0 touchdowns

I know the Jets expect a lot more than that.... Lets say even 26 receptions 250 yards 2 Tds.

I'd bump up Lt's rushes a little as well...

I also think Cotchery's numbers are spread out a little more with more going to Braylon - maybe 10 receptions.

 

[The Real Yoda]

Overall, I see how MT gets at these numbers - Bump up the passing game a little. Knock down the Run game that ran the ball a ton....But, the stat that jumps out at me the most from the Charger fan is: LaDainian Tomlinson: 12 receptions for 87 yards and 0 touchdownsI know the Jets expect a lot more than that.... Lets say even 26 receptions 250 yards 2 Tds.I'd bump up Lt's rushes a little as well...I also think Cotchery's numbers are spread out a little more with more going to Braylon - maybe 10 receptions.

Definitely more receptions for LT

 

[Reaper]

Just for fun... I posted this on a Jets board. I think we should have all the teams do the same and see what chaos ensues and what tweaks come of it....

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I'll bet a $1,000 that Shonn Greene does not lead the Jets' RBs in receptions.

 

[NoFBinLA]

You left out:

John Connor: 25,000 cyborgs killed, 1 human race saved.

I'll respond in a more serious manner now =

I think Cotchery is a little high and a few more targets will go to Edwards/Holmes. That said, Cotchery is consitent Braylon is never consistent and Holmes will take a few games to get comfortable post-suspension.

I agree also that LT will get more receptions than you have here - and I wouldn't be shocked if McKnight did as well. But I always want the Jets to use the Rbs more in the pass game and they never do.

I think the run numbers will be a bit higher than you have here as I think the Jets won't open Sanchez up inthe pass game quite yet. I could be wrong though.

Nice work overall.

Reaper: keep us posted on the Jet board pandemonium or drop a link. I'd like to see it.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Here were my projections on March 16th. I assume the following:

1) None of the players in the below projections switch teams between now and the end of the season.

2) The Jets don't add any offensive players (besides a trivial player, encapsulated in the OTHER category) between now and the end of the season (may not be true)

3) Mark Sanchez will play in 14 complete games; Kellen Clemens will start and finish 2 complete games; all of the RBs will play in 13 games; the WRs and TEs will play all 16 games (this will not be true)

4) The Jets face an average strength of schedule

Player Pos Comp Att Perc Pyd Y/A PTD INT Rsh Ryd YPC TD Rec Ryd YPC TDM. SANCHEZ QB 224 385 58.2% 2705 7.0 16 12 30 85 2.8 1 K. CLEMENS QB 32 55 58.2% 325 5.9 3 2 7 18 2.6 0 S. GREENE RB 235 1011 4.3 8 6 30 5.0 0L. TOMLINSON RB 141 578 4.1 7 15 110 7.3 1L. WASHINGTON RB 94 425 4.5 3 30 233 7.8 2T. RICHARDSON FB 5 25 5.0 0 2 12 6.0 0D. KELLER TE 54 645 11.9 5B. HARTSOCK TE 5 45 9.0 1J. COTCHERY WR 1 5 5.0 0 70 910 13.0 4B. EDWARDS WR 1 5 5.0 0 50 740 14.8 5D. CLOWNEY WR 2 16 8.0 0 15 200 13.3 1B. SMITH WR 15 80 5.3 1 6 65 10.8 0 OTHER 3 40 13.3 0 TOTAL 256 440 58.2% 3030 6.9 19 14 531 2248 4.2 20 256 3030 11.8 192009 210 393 53.4% 2596 6.6 12 21 607 2756 4.5 21 210 2596 12.4 12Since then, the Jets have drafted Ducasse, lost Faneca, traded for Holmes, drafted McKnight, traded Washington and drafted Connor.Holmes' situation playing in only 12 games is a little complicated. For me, the easiest way to do it would be to analyze the Jets with Holmes playing 16 games and with Holmes playing 0 games, and then take a weighted average of the two.

Projections without Holmes:

Losing Faneca probably means a slight downgrade in both the running and passing games. I think it's possible that the Jets offensive line is actually better without Faneca, but I don't think that's the safe projection. Most likely, plugging in a rookie from the Colonial league who hasn't even played football for long is going to hurt the line. Drafting Connor helps, but I think swapping Washington for McKnight is probably a slight downgrade (although this may be more in theory than in practice, if the prior projections were on the assumption that Washington would be back to normal and the Jets think that's not the case).

Player		 Pos  Comp  Att  Perc	Pyd   Y/A   PTD  INT   Rsh   Ryd   YPC   TD   Rec   Ryd   YPC  TDM. SANCHEZ	 QB	224  389  57.6%   2702  6.9   16   13	 32	90   2.8   1						K. CLEMENS	 QB	 32   55  58.2%	325  5.9	3	2	  7	18   2.6   0						S. GREENE	  RB											 250  1050   4.2   8	 8	 40   5.0   0L. TOMLINSON   RB											 150   610   4.1   6	25	190   7.6   1J. MCKNIGHT	RB											  60   260   4.3   3	15	115   7.7   2T. RICHARDSON  FB											   5	25   5.0   0	 2	 12   6.0   0D. KELLER	  TE																	55	655  11.9   5B. HARTSOCK	TE																	 5	 45   9.0   1J. COTCHERY	WR											   1	 5   5.0   0	72	925  12.9   4B. EDWARDS	 WR											   1	 5   5.0   0	50	740  14.8   5D. CLOWNEY	 WR											   2	16   8.0   0	15	200  13.3   1B. SMITH	   WR											  15	80   5.3   1	 6	 65  10.8   0  OTHER																				 3	 40  13.3   0															  TOTAL				256  440  57.7%   3027  6.8   19   15	523  2159   4.1  19   256   3027  11.8  192009				 210  393  53.4%   2596  6.6   12   21	607  2756   4.5  21   210   2596  12.4  12

So that's a slight downgrade in the rushing game and a sliiiight decrease in the passing game. Now, the Jets with Holmes for 16 games:

Player		 Pos  Comp  Att  Perc	Pyd   Y/A   PTD  INT   Rsh   Ryd   YPC   TD   Rec   Ryd   YPC  TDM. SANCHEZ	 QB	235  398  59.0%   2861  7.2   18   13	 32	90   2.8   1						K. CLEMENS	 QB	 33   56  58.9%	340  6.1	3	2	  7	18   2.6   0						S. GREENE	  RB											 250  1050   4.2   8	 5	 30   6.0   0L. TOMLINSON   RB											 150   610   4.1   6	20	150   7.5   1J. MCKNIGHT	RB											  60   260   4.3   3	13	100   7.7   1T. RICHARDSON  FB											   5	25   5.0   0	 2	 12   6.0   0D. KELLER	  TE																	52	500   9.6   5B. HARTSOCK	TE																	 3	 24   8.0   0J. COTCHERY	WR											   1	 5   5.0   0	60	730  12.2   4B. EDWARDS	 WR											   1	 5   5.0   0	41	615  15.0   4S. HOLMES	  WR											   2	16   8.0   0	60	900  15.0   6B. SMITH	   WR											  15	80   5.3   1	 5	 50  10.0   0  OTHER																				 7	 90  12.9   0															  TOTAL				268  454  59.0%   3201  7.1   21   15	523  2159   4.1  19   268   3201  11.9  212009				 210  393  53.4%   2596  6.6   12   21	607  2756   4.5  21   210   2596  12.4  12

So I guess my 2010 projections would be (using 3/4 of the prior projections and 1/4 of the ones directly before):

Player		 Pos  Comp  Att  Perc	Pyd   Y/A   PTD  INT   Rsh   Ryd   YPC   TD   Rec   Ryd   YPC  TDM. SANCHEZ	 QB	232  396  58.7%   2821  7.1   18   13	 32	90   2.8   1						K. CLEMENS	 QB	 33   56  58.7%	336  6.0	3	2	  7	18   2.6   0						S. GREENE	  RB											 250  1050   4.2   8	 6	 33   5.7   0L. TOMLINSON   RB											 150   610   4.1   6	21	160   7.5   1J. MCKNIGHT	RB											  60   260   4.3   3	14	104   7.7   1T. RICHARDSON  FB											   5	25   5.0   0	 2	 12   6.0   0D. KELLER	  TE																	53	539  10.2   5B. HARTSOCK	TE																	 4	 29   8.4   0J. COTCHERY	WR											   1	 5   5.0   0	63	779  12.4   4B. EDWARDS	 WR											   1	 5   5.0   0	43	646  14.9   4S. HOLMES	  WR											   2	16   8.0   0	45	675  15.0   5B. SMITH	   WR											  15	80   5.3   1	 5	 54  10.2   0  OTHER																				10	128  12.8   0															  TOTAL				265  452  58.7%   3158  7.0   21   15	523  2159   4.1  19   265   3158  11.9  212009				 210  393  53.4%   2596  6.6   12   21	607  2756   4.5  21   210   2596  12.4  12

 

[Chase Stuart]

So, Maurile:

I think you've got a few too many pass attempts projected for the Jets. Going up to 473 from 393 is a little higher than I'm willing to go; I expect regression to the mean principles probably dictate the Jets get to 450, but I still think they're going to be winning a lot of games and trying to pound out the clock. I think you're a little light on the passing touchdown numbers, especially on that many attempts. I think the Jets philosophy also dictates fewer plays than you're projecting. I also think the INT rate is a bit too high.

On Greene -- that's a lot of attempts; I think Tomlinson gets some of those, especially since I question whether Greene can hold up. I think 16 receptions is a bit more than I'd be willing to project for a guy with 0 career catches in the regular season. Conversely, I think LT takes a bit more than 94 rushes, and I think with Washington gone LT probably claers 20 receptions now. We're in the same ballpark on McKnight.

Cotchery looks high to me.Edwards a little low. I think Holmes is about right. Keller we're almost identical on.

So I'm mostly with you. We have pretty similar numbers here, achieved independently The only real fantasy difference of note comes with Greene, but I'm not projecting him to play 16 games. Are you?

 

[Reaper]

Reaper: keep us posted on the Jet board pandemonium or drop a link. I'd like to see it.

Not a ton of responses but.....

That's terrible.

Tomlinson catching less passes than Greene?

Sanchez throwing that many INTs?

Edwards have little to no production at all...and carrying the ball 10 times?

Edwards catching less passes than Holmes with the 4 game suspension? damn i hope not

If Jerricho Cotchery has more catches than Edwards and Holmes combined, I'll eat my hat.

LT catches 12 passes all season??

His worst season, 2009 he caught 20 and that was in 14 games. Next was 51 catches up to 100.

That's insane with the offense he'll be in now.

Exactly! Tomlinson will have more catches than Greene. I could live with Sanchez's predictions although that might a few more ints than I predict. Edwards had more production in his 12 games with Jets last season than this stupid projection. Holmes averaging just over 3 catches in his 12 games as #2 if not #1?

J. McKnight averaging only 4 YPC? He will get carries late in the game to give a breather to LT and SG. I think he'll average between 5 to 6.

Dustin Keller getting only 549 yards? Seriously, it be his third season as a pass catching TE. Second season with Sanchez who has 3 #1 WRs that WILL demand much more coverage and double teaming than having Brad Smith as the #3. I can see Dustin exploding this year.

Shonn Greene had 1 reception in the preseason and one in the post season while none in the regular season. Granted he only had 108 rushing attempts last year, but still. I doubt if they use him as catching RB when they have LT to do that job.

I think the overall totals are pretty skewed toward last season's totals. I think the rushing totals will be lower, passing will be higher, especially as the season goes on.

This is of course going by the assumption that Schotty is going to call an intelligent gameplan. I don't believe that the Jets should run a simply balanced offense throughout the season - the roster now gives them the freedom to truly attack the weakness of the opponent's defense.

Last year, when we played against teams with weak rushing defense, we capitalized, while we still sort of struggled and tried running the ball all day long against teams with weak pass defense. With the addition of LT and Holmes after week 4, we now have the type of roster to truly tailor an attack against the weakness of the opposing team.

Sanchez is of course the wildcard here, because if he struggles early, we may end up going back to the old Ground and Pound no matter who we are facing, but I am erring on the side of optimism with that one.

 

[Reaper]

Pretty simple:

1) Take the Shonn Greene catches and give 95% of that To LT

2) Take Cotchery's numbers and spread them out a little bit mostly to Braylon