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There is, indeed, a Dynasty Draft Pick Calculator.It is intended to figure out what the value is for Rookie Draft Picks and their relative value.Just like a regular Pick Calculator, it is intended for comparison of two (or more) picks of the same type (i.e. two redraft picks).The Dynasty Calculator is for comparing 2 or more rookie picks. So if you're in a Dynasty League and want to figure out what each pick is worth for your upcoming rookie draft, this is the tool to use.You do have to customize it for your league.If the OP wants to give / post his starting lineup requirements, roster size and #of teams, that should give me enough to calculate his Dynasty Factor and talk more intelligently about what the calculator says.More details are on the FBG Dynasty tab and in my signature.
Hmm, so your question has nothing to do with the Dynasty Calculator, but rather about personal perspective about the players involved?Oh and by the way, there have been numerous good rookie picks beyond the Top 6. MJD was about 10-12 in his year, for example.
He did refer to it being a crap shoot which means some players will do well. Same argument has been used on me trying to get me to trade down this year. I like the odds of getting stud early in the draft versus hoping later.
My point is that in any given year, you can make a case that after a certain number of picks, there is a drop in the talent level. Last year was ADP and Calvin and Lynch and then a perceived drop.The Dynasty Calculator is a tool, just like any other. It's a guide and was created (by me) because there wasn't any other guide out there. So I made one. It isn't a hard and fast rule, but at least it gives you something to compare against before you agree or disagree on a trade of draft picks.
Who came up with that stupid Dynasty Calculator anyway? Just joking. Great job and a great Guide line to use.
One of the reason I like this site.
why is it that when I change the # of teams, to a larger league, the value of the same picks (8-14 range, not by round) declines? doesn't make sense to me.
I'll take this one. 1.08 in a eight team league is worth less than 1.08 in a sixteen team League.
I agree, but that's not what happens here. When I plug in picks 9 (2.01) and 12 (2.04) in an 8 team league, they come up with 1006 and 811, for 1816 total. 1.03 is only worth 1602, so this tool is telling me the team getting 9 and 12 "wins". However, if I change the teams to 12, picks 9 (1.09) and 12 (1.12) = 1265, while pick 1.03 is worth 1475.
These are all the same players, and all else equal many players who start in 12 team leagues are benched in 8 (1/3, precisely)
This is a good question, and one of the things I tried to get right was the directions of value for the calculator.I had a conversation with the 2006 version of myself (well, at least I read my thouhst from back then).I agree, but that's not what happens here. When I plug in picks 9 (2.01) and 12 (2.04) in an 8 team league, they come up with 1006 and 811, for 1816 total. 1.03 is only worth 1602, so this tool is telling me the team getting 9 and 12 "wins". However, if I change the teams to 12, picks 9 (1.09) and 12 (1.12) = 1265, while pick 1.03 is worth 1475.These are all the same players, and all else equal many players who start in 12 team leagues are benched in 8 (1/3, precisely)
So here we have a subtlety. As the # of teams increases, the value of the picks beyond Pick #1 does go up.Think about that one.
All of that makes perfect sense, which probably means one of two things. 1. There's a glitch in the program, or 2. I screwed something up.I'm getting:This is a good question, and one of the things I tried to get right was the directions of value for the calculator.I had a conversation with the 2006 version of myself (well, at least I read my thouhst from back then).I agree, but that's not what happens here. When I plug in picks 9 (2.01) and 12 (2.04) in an 8 team league, they come up with 1006 and 811, for 1816 total. 1.03 is only worth 1602, so this tool is telling me the team getting 9 and 12 "wins". However, if I change the teams to 12, picks 9 (1.09) and 12 (1.12) = 1265, while pick 1.03 is worth 1475.
From the Dynasty Calculator Article:
So here we have a subtlety. As the # of teams increases, the value of the picks beyond Pick #1 does go up.Think about that one.
Let's say that both leagues have the same rosters (just pick one) and the same # of starters. I'll pick 9 starters (1-2-3-1-1-1) and 25 roster spots just to make things easy on my math. So as you've said, there are 50% more players rostered in a 12 team league as in an 8 team league (300 vs. 200).
So, the subtlety is not about the picks themselves, but also about the depth of the talent on the waiver wire.
For a rookie to matter, they have to be better than 200 other players to warrant a roster spot in an 8-team league. They can be players 201-300 and still get rostered in a 12-team league. Therefore, you need elite rookie picks more in an 8 team league because you need more high caliber players. That also means that the picks beyond #1 drop off in value much faster in smaller leagues simply because there's not much room on rosters for these players to develop and contribute.
With 12 teams (or more) you have the roster space to let younger guys with potential to both contribute and develop. You wouldn't have kept Tarvaris Jackson in an 8-team league even as you WR2, but you'd certainly hold on to him with 16 teams if you had the roster space. A starting QB is harder to find, just like it is harder to find 36 vs. 24 good WRs.
To boil it down, more rookies are drafted and kept in deeper leagues, which means both bigger rosters and more teams. The later picks have more value because in shallower leagues you don't hold on to rookie projects nearly as much.
I hope that helped to clear it up.
You got the numbers right. The problem is that this is a multi-variable problem.While the statement about how the pick values goes stands true, there are other variables in play (most notably here roster size).
I probably should have dug deeper into the answer from the tool before starting an explanation, as I can see my first answer was OK but incomplete. The roster factor seems to dominate the # of teams factor.
I didn't change the roster size, starting lineup, or anything. Dynasty factor makes sense, it just seemed weird.
That had me scratching my head as well. Seems counter-intuitive, but there's a lot of factors in play.
Hmm, a little touchy about the Dynasty Calculator are we?
And no, it is not about my personal perspective about the players involved, it's about my personal perspective about the players precieved tallent level involved. Two years ago Marques Colston was not even drafted in our league. Last year Ryan Grant was not drafted. By your way of thinking maybe I should just give away all my picks because there are great players to be had that don't even get drafted. I thought my point was pretty clear. I only put Cedreck Bensen in there to show that even a top three pick is no sure thing. But I believe the odds are still better.
As part of my job here I want to make sure that the Dynasty Calculator works to the best of its ability. I invented it to fill what I thought was a need, so yes, I'm going to work towards that goal.I invite questions about it several times a year, so when I get one I'm going to investigate the question. That only seems fair and right to do.Hmm, a little touchy about the Dynasty Calculator are we?And no, it is not about my personal perspective about the players involved, it's about my personal perspective about the players precieved tallent level involved. Two years ago Marques Colston was not even drafted in our league. Last year Ryan Grant was not drafted. By your way of thinking maybe I should just give away all my picks because there are great players to be had that don't even get drafted. I thought my point was pretty clear. I only put Cedreck Bensen in there to show that even a top three pick is no sure thing. But I believe the odds are still better.
Then you changed your statement to reflect that it was based on your personal opinion and that you wouldn't trade 1.03 for 1.09 and 1.12, and that it is a "crap shoot" for players:
So again, I'm saying that the Dynasty Calculator - a rookie draft pick tool - is working. Whether you choose to believe these values is up to you.Just like the NFL has a Draft Pick Value Chart, that doesn't mean you'd make a trade based solely on those pick values. The same can be said about the Dynasty Calculator (and any pick calculator, for that matter).
This thing can't be working right.I looked at the values of pick 48 in an 8 team (pick 6.08) and a 12 team (pick 4.12) and the 8 team is worth 64 points and the 12 team is worth 12 points. The 6th round pick in an 8 team league should be worthless and not even rostered.Jeff Pasquino said:
these are ROOKIE PICKS in an established leagueNot Initial Dynasty Startup Picks.
Everything that you enter factors in.Roster size, # of teams, and starters (and positional breakdowns) all matter.I don't know what settings you have to get those values, but yes they are all pretty low.Without knowing all the other settings I can't say WHY it is that low, but there's definitely a reason.
OK, through a series of educated guesses, you have the default starters (1-2-3-1-1-1) and a roster size of 21 players in each cases.With 12 teams, your DF is 4.457.With 8 teams, your DF is 2.971.That means that the 12 teamer is more "Dynasty-ish" than the 8 teamer.The earlier picks are worth more in a 12 team draft than in an 8, as you would expect. The rolloff in value is steeper.As a result, the slower rolloff will have some possible head-scratchers in the 8 teamer near the dying end of the pick scale. Sure, I agree - with 21 roster spots and 9 starters, the odds of you wanting to have 6 rookies on your squad is minimal, so it should not matter - but what does matter is how the tool values the picks within that league as a comparison.For example, in an 8-teamer, 1.08 is about equal to 2.08 and 2.07.For a 12 teamer, 1.08 is about equal to 1.12 and 2.02. The reasons for that are numerous, but basically rookies are worth more in bigger leagues as that is how you build a team in larger Dynasty Leagues (whereas in a small 8 team Dynasty league, there's a lot of value on the Waiver Wire).Comparing two different league setups against each other was never the intention of the tool, and I'm not surprised that certain scenarios exist where there are questions. It is meant to give values within a league for rookie picks relative to one another.
I understand what you're saying but I don't think it makes any sense.If in a small 8 team league, there is a lot of value in the waiver wire, the rolloff in value should be steeper. There is less chance a late pick will be rostered, thus it should have less value.
I did not "chang my statement". I was simply explaining why I don't think the 1.9 & 1.12 is worth the 1.3. And nowhere in any of my posts did I say that I would not trade the 1.3 for the 1.9 & 1.12. I wouldn't, but I never said that. Head butting aside, I appreciate the effort involved in the calculator. But I believe that, unlike in non rookie drafts, the rookie players value change way to much from year to year therefore rendering the calculator a little decieving. That is of coarse my opinion.Jeff Pasquino said:As part of my job here I want to make sure that the Dynasty Calculator works to the best of its ability. I invented it to fill what I thought was a need, so yes, I'm going to work towards that goal.I invite questions about it several times a year, so when I get one I'm going to investigate the question. That only seems fair and right to do.agiffey said:Hmm, a little touchy about the Dynasty Calculator are we?
You originally stated that the 1.3 for the 1.09 and 1.12 wasn't fair value, which implied that the calculator isn't right:
Then you changed your statement to reflect that it was based on your personal opinion and that you wouldn't trade 1.03 for 1.09 and 1.12, and that it is a "crap shoot" for players:agiffey said:
So again, I'm saying that the Dynasty Calculator - a rookie draft pick tool - is working. Whether you choose to believe these values is up to you.Just like the NFL has a Draft Pick Value Chart, that doesn't mean you'd make a trade based solely on those pick values. The same can be said about the Dynasty Calculator (and any pick calculator, for that matter).agiffey said:
Thank youBtw, can you please change it to "persuade" in the thread title. It's bugging me a little every time I see it in the forum list
Sorry, but that's too funny....
No worries on the headbutting.
But it does have less value - within that particular league.
I do get what you're saying, but to make a change to the rolloff of the calculator to make such a small change more meaningful would be counterproductive, IMHO. It would require a bigger overhaul for a league that I'm not sure would care (is there a league of 8 teams drafting 6 rookie rounds with just 21 roster spots???)Frankly if you have 6 rounds of a rookie draft with only 21 roster spots, you're wasting time anyway......IMHO Rookie drafts should not be more than 25% of your roster deep - so in this case 4 rounds should be plenty.I don't think you're understanding what I'm saying.I think you'd agree that the waiver wire threshold occurs earlier (in the draft) in an 8 team league than in a 12 team league, right? In other words, if it's at pick 48 (arbitrary) in an 8 team league, it will be later in a 12 team league (the actual spot doesn't matter - just that it would occur later).But it does have less value - within that particular league.
I do get what you're saying, but to make a change to the rolloff of the calculator to make such a small change more meaningful would be counterproductive, IMHO. It would require a bigger overhaul for a league that I'm not sure would care (is there a league of 8 teams drafting 6 rookie rounds with just 21 roster spots???)
Frankly if you have 6 rounds of a rookie draft with only 21 roster spots, you're wasting time anyway......
IMHO Rookie drafts should not be more than 25% of your roster deep - so in this case 4 rounds should be plenty.
The calculator takes into account multiple factors such as the # of players already rostered, the likelihood of startable players on the waiver wire, and the ability to get players who can start for your Dynasty team. That's a lot to crunch into a number.I don't think you're understanding what I'm saying.I think you'd agree that the waiver wire threshold occurs earlier (in the draft) in an 8 team league than in a 12 team league, right? In other words, if it's at pick 48 (arbitrary) in an 8 team league, it will be later in a 12 team league (the actual spot doesn't matter - just that it would occur later).But it does have less value - within that particular league.
I do get what you're saying, but to make a change to the rolloff of the calculator to make such a small change more meaningful would be counterproductive, IMHO. It would require a bigger overhaul for a league that I'm not sure would care (is there a league of 8 teams drafting 6 rookie rounds with just 21 roster spots???)
Frankly if you have 6 rounds of a rookie draft with only 21 roster spots, you're wasting time anyway......
IMHO Rookie drafts should not be more than 25% of your roster deep - so in this case 4 rounds should be plenty.
If that's true, then pick 48 in an 8 team draft realistically has essentially zero value (relative to a higher pick), since you could pick someone up just as easily. But, pick 48 still has some value (relative to a higher pick) in the 12 team draft because it is still above the waiver wire threshold. The calculator doesn't show this. It shows the opposite.
In your above example, 1.08 in an 8 team is worth 924. Pick 16 (2.08) is worth 452 or 49% of the value of 1.08. In a 12 team, pick 1.08 is worth 646 and pick 16 (2.04) is worth 221, or 34% of the value of 1.08. The relative value of pick 16 should be lower in an 8 team versus a 12 team league, because in an 8 team league, it is closer to the value of the waiver wire. The calculator shows the opposite.
