Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I think of an old saying I have come to use over the years and goes something like this. You can find breadcrumbs in trash cans but that doesn't make it a good place to find food. I have several teams that I slowly and in some instances quickly want nothing to do with. All things considered at the end of the day I don't want them on my roster. I'll give you an example and then guide you thru the teams.
It's the 14th round and owners are lining up to take guys like DeMaryius Thomas, Mohammed Massaquoi, Donnie Avery...I realize these are probably WR4/WR5 types but hoenstly there are much better choices from teams that have a strong offense and have as much chance or better of hitting as the guys I just mentioned. 2 guys late that stick out to me that have fallen off the planet are Bernard Berrian and Roy Williams. Both are deemed 3rd options at the WR slot but I can make an argument where Berrian could bounce back to 2008 levels and Roy is being pushed aside even though a rookie who has a lot of work to do is deemed the starter.
But beyond that they both are WRs with good QBs throwing them the ball and IMO have a much stronger chance due to being on strong offenses than do many of the others options there. Sure, Avery could be the WR1 in St Louis but what prize is that this year? Their OL is in shambles, they have a rookie QB or GKW behind Bradford, do you really think the chances of anything beyond 700/4 is even realistic there?
So I have a bunch of teams that all things considered I would rather avoid due to the poor offenses they play on. I understand you can find some gems even on a bad team but if the choices are strong offense vs weak, I would rather have a piece of the pie on a high scoring team. How many times have we seen Steven Jackson owners crying in the SP that "It's just not fair." Let's take a look and I apologize to fans of these teams who will argue up and down but please understand it's not personal. And I do realize some players will succeed from these teams, but again I'd rather another owner take the risk.
Arizona: I have no faith in Matt Leinart and this OL is not good by any stretch. They can run block OK but the pass protection will be weak. Those taking Fitz in the 1st round I believe are going to be disappointed. There are so many other WRs to choose from, why hitch the wagon to that guy? And the love for Chris Wells is almost unreal to me. I'll be happy to watch other owners fill their rosters with these players early and often. Leinart and AZ are part of about 5 teams I want nothing to do with as even QB2/3 types. If they succeed, great but it won't be on my roster.
Buffalo: This just looks like a trainwreck although even wehn Buffalo is bad they still catch teams off gard. Lee Evans is the WR1, he has fallen off the past couple years. Shawn Nelson as the TE and Fitzpatrick at QB? I want CJ Spiller to come out of the box hot but there is direct competition for touches and he's now going int the late 7th/early 8th in many redrafts so owners are taking notice. The OL is below avg at best. Pass
Chicago: People are going Martz crazy and the OL is horrendous. If Cutler makes it the 1st 8 weeks I'll be surprised. Variety of WRs that no one can really figure out. A TE who is usually top10 but Martz has never had a TE catch over about 35 balls. Forte and Taylor will split time which makes them useless in leagues where you have to actually put a starting roster in vs best ball. No thanks.
Cleveland: No WRs, shaky QB, OL seems to play under their capabilities, HC on the hot seat. Jerome Harrison is interesting but very streaky, has a rookie coming in to steal touches. What is exciting here?
Denver: This situation is getting worse. No run blocking along the interior of that OL. They have lost a tremendous WR in Brandon Marshall. Scheffler was their only weapon at TE, he's gone. Orton is OK but not a world beater by any stretch. Gaffney, Royal, and a rookie at WR. Let other owners gamble on these guys, why do you need to?
Oakland: Everyone wants to get excited about Jason Campbell and he is an improvement over Cough Syrup but he goes from Washingotn where he was sacked 48 times to a team that gave up 50 last year. The OT are terrible and even with the draft they have a lot of work to do. The running game is so hit and miss, mostly miss that you can't bank on any of this. Steer clear for 1 more year.
Pittsburgh: Oh yeah guys...let's have an honest conversation here. Colon going down is not good, spare me the penalties he gave up last year, he only allowed 5 QB pressures all year outside of any sacks. Most give up 20-30 of those and the guy replacing him will probably be in the 30+ category. Lefty is the QB for at least 4 weeks, has no OL, you cannot be confident in him or the offense. Mendenhall? No running lanes for him and defenses will tee off on Leftwich. Pass, Pass, Pass.
St. Louis: Total mess from top to bottom. SJax in the 1st, again let someone else venture out and take this guy early. Passing game is a good candidate for bottom 3. Keep moving, nothing to see here.
Seattle: I wanted to be optimistic but the WRs are pretty low impact. The only thing I like is John Carlson, actually like him plenty but the rest of this is pure stink. Hass might lose his job. People are forecasting Forsett as a possible top10 candidate...serioulsy? With this OL in front of him? They drafted Okung who I think will be great down the road but they also lost Rob Sims inside and are going to miss him in their ground attack. New coach, let others discover his style in year 1.
Tampa Bay: Cadillac is a shell of his former self...2 rookie WRs...this is another team where I do like the TE but it's not the end all be all if you pass on him. I like Freeman but he was the worst QB inside the red zone as a rookie that I have ever seen. How many interceptions did he throw in the red zone? Seemed like every week I saw him tossing interceptions when TB was ready to score. The OL not only has lost it's identity but several want long term contracts and the Glazers ain't doing it.
I'm sure some are going to post rebuttals to all of this, and I will try and keep an open mind but what is the downside of avoiding these teams? There are lots of other players out there to fill up your rosters besides what you have here.
It's the 14th round and owners are lining up to take guys like DeMaryius Thomas, Mohammed Massaquoi, Donnie Avery...I realize these are probably WR4/WR5 types but hoenstly there are much better choices from teams that have a strong offense and have as much chance or better of hitting as the guys I just mentioned. 2 guys late that stick out to me that have fallen off the planet are Bernard Berrian and Roy Williams. Both are deemed 3rd options at the WR slot but I can make an argument where Berrian could bounce back to 2008 levels and Roy is being pushed aside even though a rookie who has a lot of work to do is deemed the starter.
But beyond that they both are WRs with good QBs throwing them the ball and IMO have a much stronger chance due to being on strong offenses than do many of the others options there. Sure, Avery could be the WR1 in St Louis but what prize is that this year? Their OL is in shambles, they have a rookie QB or GKW behind Bradford, do you really think the chances of anything beyond 700/4 is even realistic there?
So I have a bunch of teams that all things considered I would rather avoid due to the poor offenses they play on. I understand you can find some gems even on a bad team but if the choices are strong offense vs weak, I would rather have a piece of the pie on a high scoring team. How many times have we seen Steven Jackson owners crying in the SP that "It's just not fair." Let's take a look and I apologize to fans of these teams who will argue up and down but please understand it's not personal. And I do realize some players will succeed from these teams, but again I'd rather another owner take the risk.
Arizona: I have no faith in Matt Leinart and this OL is not good by any stretch. They can run block OK but the pass protection will be weak. Those taking Fitz in the 1st round I believe are going to be disappointed. There are so many other WRs to choose from, why hitch the wagon to that guy? And the love for Chris Wells is almost unreal to me. I'll be happy to watch other owners fill their rosters with these players early and often. Leinart and AZ are part of about 5 teams I want nothing to do with as even QB2/3 types. If they succeed, great but it won't be on my roster.
Buffalo: This just looks like a trainwreck although even wehn Buffalo is bad they still catch teams off gard. Lee Evans is the WR1, he has fallen off the past couple years. Shawn Nelson as the TE and Fitzpatrick at QB? I want CJ Spiller to come out of the box hot but there is direct competition for touches and he's now going int the late 7th/early 8th in many redrafts so owners are taking notice. The OL is below avg at best. Pass
Chicago: People are going Martz crazy and the OL is horrendous. If Cutler makes it the 1st 8 weeks I'll be surprised. Variety of WRs that no one can really figure out. A TE who is usually top10 but Martz has never had a TE catch over about 35 balls. Forte and Taylor will split time which makes them useless in leagues where you have to actually put a starting roster in vs best ball. No thanks.
Cleveland: No WRs, shaky QB, OL seems to play under their capabilities, HC on the hot seat. Jerome Harrison is interesting but very streaky, has a rookie coming in to steal touches. What is exciting here?
Denver: This situation is getting worse. No run blocking along the interior of that OL. They have lost a tremendous WR in Brandon Marshall. Scheffler was their only weapon at TE, he's gone. Orton is OK but not a world beater by any stretch. Gaffney, Royal, and a rookie at WR. Let other owners gamble on these guys, why do you need to?
Oakland: Everyone wants to get excited about Jason Campbell and he is an improvement over Cough Syrup but he goes from Washingotn where he was sacked 48 times to a team that gave up 50 last year. The OT are terrible and even with the draft they have a lot of work to do. The running game is so hit and miss, mostly miss that you can't bank on any of this. Steer clear for 1 more year.
Pittsburgh: Oh yeah guys...let's have an honest conversation here. Colon going down is not good, spare me the penalties he gave up last year, he only allowed 5 QB pressures all year outside of any sacks. Most give up 20-30 of those and the guy replacing him will probably be in the 30+ category. Lefty is the QB for at least 4 weeks, has no OL, you cannot be confident in him or the offense. Mendenhall? No running lanes for him and defenses will tee off on Leftwich. Pass, Pass, Pass.
St. Louis: Total mess from top to bottom. SJax in the 1st, again let someone else venture out and take this guy early. Passing game is a good candidate for bottom 3. Keep moving, nothing to see here.
Seattle: I wanted to be optimistic but the WRs are pretty low impact. The only thing I like is John Carlson, actually like him plenty but the rest of this is pure stink. Hass might lose his job. People are forecasting Forsett as a possible top10 candidate...serioulsy? With this OL in front of him? They drafted Okung who I think will be great down the road but they also lost Rob Sims inside and are going to miss him in their ground attack. New coach, let others discover his style in year 1.
Tampa Bay: Cadillac is a shell of his former self...2 rookie WRs...this is another team where I do like the TE but it's not the end all be all if you pass on him. I like Freeman but he was the worst QB inside the red zone as a rookie that I have ever seen. How many interceptions did he throw in the red zone? Seemed like every week I saw him tossing interceptions when TB was ready to score. The OL not only has lost it's identity but several want long term contracts and the Glazers ain't doing it.
I'm sure some are going to post rebuttals to all of this, and I will try and keep an open mind but what is the downside of avoiding these teams? There are lots of other players out there to fill up your rosters besides what you have here.
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Roy and Bernard are a certain waste of roster space. Avery and Massaquoi are only probably wastes of roster space. When that's all that is left in the draft, taking the lower upside guys because they have better teammates (or becaue you are too lazy to look at a third of the teams and their occassional success opportunities) just isn't good drafting. But we probably both like to have guys just like each other in our leagues.
Roy and Bernard are a certain waste of roster space. Avery and Massaquoi are only probably wastes of roster space. When that's all that is left in the draft, taking the lower upside guys because they have better teammates (or becaue you are too lazy to look at a third of the teams and their occassional success opportunities) just isn't good drafting. But we probably both like to have guys just like each other in our leagues.
Yeah, I disagree a bit MOP. I'll take Avery over Roy Williams any day. Potential WR1s on any team are much better than the 4th or 5th receiving option on an offensive juggernaut.
We're all so quick to point out the difficulty of projecting fantasy players statistics, yet we seem to take other projections, even harder to quantify, as gospel. We largely accept "strength of schedule" or "state of the offensive line" as though they're linear from year to year, and it's simply a case of making minor moves up or down based on any changing personnel (or schedules based on LAST YEAR'S stats). I can still remember all the LT haters in his rookie year, insisting that San Diego had one of the worst offensive lines in the modern NFL era and no one, much less a rookie, would be a productive fantasy player. I'm not saying one shouldn't evaluate the offensive line, I certainly do. But I'm saying that it's no more/less predictable a factor than any other assumption we make. If you get 60% of your predictions right in a season, you stand a good chance of competing for your league title. I don't know that evaluating offensive lines relative to one another is any easier (in fact I would say it's probably harder).
I will say that MOP isn't always right, but his real value to the boards is putting it out there. His posts always generate good discussions, and we can use a few more like him on the boards.
