Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
I don't know about anyone else, but I am still concerned about Palmer's health and that makes me temper my enthusiasm a bit right now.
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Terrell Owens Projections.... (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter pags1
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Verbal Kint
Footballguy
Agreed. If there was ever a WR that took care of his body the way Rice did, its TO.
Verbal Kint
Footballguy
shut yer mouth!
Unbridled? Seriously?Some unbridled optimism here.That would put him at WR18 in my PPR league last year. Wowsers.
Verbal Kint
Footballguy
I hope you're a spelling nazi. Because the criticism is spot on.Unbridled? Seriously?
Avery
Footballguy
Yeah. You know what that means, right?Unbridled? Seriously?Some unbridled optimism here.That would put him at WR18 in my PPR league last year. Wowsers.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
So much for those people that were pimping Dr. Rockso
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TeamSnooki
Footballguy
50-55 catches, 700-750 yds, 5-6 TDs.
aka probably won't be on my team this year.
aka probably won't be on my team this year.
Verbal Kint
Footballguy
Last year he had, what? 865 & 6 Tds? as a Wr1 on a bad team. Compared to a Wr2 (assuming AB is a bust) on a team with a good QB with a strong runnng game?
I'd say, net, net, his production should be about the same as last year.
I'd say, net, net, his production should be about the same as last year.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
65 / 1000 / 7
Awwwwwwwwwwww yeah.
Awwwwwwwwwwww yeah.
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Verbal Kint
Footballguy
From your lips to God's ears...But I think you're crazy. Look at some comparable Wrs.Chris Carter's 15th season, at age 36: 73 catches, 871 yards, 6 TDsMarvin Harrison's 13th season, at age 36: 60 catches, 636 yards, 5 TDsJames Lofton's 15th season, age 36: 51 catches, 780 yards, 6 TDsTim Brown's 15th season, age 36: 81 catches, 930 yards, 2 TDsJerry Rice's 15th season at age 37: 67 catches, 830 yards, 5 TDsAnything over 800/6 is a pipe dream.
Abrantes
Footballguy
To be fair, Romo was out for three games that year, and Brad Johnson was brutal in his stead.
Just making sure you do. You may not like the guy, but he's crushed those numbers most of his career. I know he isn't as good as he used to be, but he would've put up those numbers on just about any other team last year. Nothing "unbridled" about expecting him to put up a below-average season for him.Yeah. You know what that means, right?Unbridled? Seriously?Some unbridled optimism here.That would put him at WR18 in my PPR league last year. Wowsers.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
59 / 825 / 5 last year ... but yeah, admittedly the projection I just put out would be the high end of likely outcomes.
Verbal Kint
Footballguy
I hope you're right
Avery
Footballguy
I know he keeps himself in phenomenal shape and he's not your average 36 year old WR. Having said that using the career averages as a barometer for what he will do in his 15 season seems like a miscalculated starting point.Just making sure you do. You may not like the guy, but he's crushed those numbers most of his career. I know he isn't as good as he used to be, but he would've put up those numbers on just about any other team last year. Nothing "unbridled" about expecting him to put up a below-average season for him.Yeah. You know what that means, right?Unbridled? Seriously?
Phinneas Q. Butterfat
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
I wouldn't draft Owens unless he was still on the board way below his ADP. At 36, even in great shape, it's too easy for him to get dinged up and injured at any time. I don't trust Palmer's health and I don't trust Ocho's consistency. People are acting like this is LeBron and Wade. It's more like if Shaq joined Jason Kidd.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
I've actually tweaked it down to 7 TDs, but I'm going out with this as my projection when they hit the site tomorrow.
Housh routinely got 130+ targets when he and Ocho were together, and Owens is obviously used to even more targets than that. He's at a point in his career where he's catching roughly 50-55% of his targets. I suspect it'll be closer to 55% because of Palmer's accuracy, but it could be toward the lower end.
125 targets x 52.5% catch rate = 66 catches
He's not lost a step when the ball is in his hands, witness last year's 15.1 yards per catch (a touch ABOVE his career average). About the only thing I have trouble handicapping is the TD production, hence my going a bit more conservative and putting him at 7. When you're talking TDs, it could just as easily be 5 or 10.
Housh routinely got 130+ targets when he and Ocho were together, and Owens is obviously used to even more targets than that. He's at a point in his career where he's catching roughly 50-55% of his targets. I suspect it'll be closer to 55% because of Palmer's accuracy, but it could be toward the lower end.
125 targets x 52.5% catch rate = 66 catches
He's not lost a step when the ball is in his hands, witness last year's 15.1 yards per catch (a touch ABOVE his career average). About the only thing I have trouble handicapping is the TD production, hence my going a bit more conservative and putting him at 7. When you're talking TDs, it could just as easily be 5 or 10.
Verbal Kint
Footballguy
800/6 should be considered his ceiling. Sincerely,an unbridled-ly optimistic Bengals fan.I know he keeps himself in phenomenal shape and he's not your average 36 year old WR. Having said that using the career averages as a barometer for what he will do in his 15 season seems like a miscalculated starting point.Just making sure you do. You may not like the guy, but he's crushed those numbers most of his career. I know he isn't as good as he used to be, but he would've put up those numbers on just about any other team last year. Nothing "unbridled" about expecting him to put up a below-average season for him.Yeah. You know what that means, right?Unbridled? Seriously?
Verbal Kint
Footballguy
Inasmuch as I believe the Bengals went to a power running game last year out of a lack of options in the passing game, I don't think they will completely abandon it this year. Benson > Rudi IMO opinion, plus factoring additional targets to Shipley/Caldwell and Gresham, and I'd tick the yardage down a notch.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
I'm projecting 530 attempts for Palmer, this team can't sit idle as the 26th ranked passing attack with that receiving corp (PLUS Gresham) IMHO. I've got 145 completions going to Ochocinco and Owens, leaving 183 completions for other players.
I agree, but I'm not doing that. I'm using his career averages to say that it isn't "unbridled" for someone to project him to put up those kind of numbers. It isn't like he said he's going to put up his best season, or even an average season- those numbers would actually be one of his worst seasons. It's only a slight increase in his numbers over last year, which I don't think is all that unreasonable considering the circumstances. His projections may be a tad high, but your response made it seem like it's out of the realm of possibility.I know he keeps himself in phenomenal shape and he's not your average 36 year old WR. Having said that using the career averages as a barometer for what he will do in his 15 season seems like a miscalculated starting point.Just making sure you do. You may not like the guy, but he's crushed those numbers most of his career. I know he isn't as good as he used to be, but he would've put up those numbers on just about any other team last year. Nothing "unbridled" about expecting him to put up a below-average season for him.Yeah. You know what that means, right?Unbridled? Seriously?
Some unbridled optimism here.
That would put him at WR18 in my PPR league last year. Wowsers.
zoonation
Footballguy
I don't think people around here really understand how bad the Bills offense was last year. It was pathetic. The numbers he posted there have been listed already in this thread. I think that is his absolute floor barring injury.
He isn't going to draw the opposing team's best DB. He has an above average QB. He has a bruising back and a vastly improved o-line. The only question mark is Palmer's health.
70-985-9
He isn't going to draw the opposing team's best DB. He has an above average QB. He has a bruising back and a vastly improved o-line. The only question mark is Palmer's health.
70-985-9
Cris Carter's stats weren't far off these projections, and Culpepper got hurt that year so he had 5 1/2 games of scrub QB play (6 TDs for Carter prior to CPep injury, 0 after).Marvin Harrison was coming off of a major injury and never got healthy.James Lofton never had double digit TDs in a season, and those numbers were better than 3 out of his previous 4 seasons (and above his career averages in receptions and TDs).Tim Brown's numbers were close to these projections, only shy on TDs (and TO has far more TDs than Brown).Jerry Rice also put up 83/1139/9 in season 17 (age 39) and 92/1211/7 in season 18 (age 40).Not a pipe dream IMO.
Verbal Kint
Footballguy
So, of the handful of HOF-worthy WRs who stayed healthy long enough to play this long, you expect TO to surpass BOTH Tim Brown's yardage, and meet or exceed all of their TD production? OK, gotcha.
Here we go again- First of all, I didn't say I expect it, I said I don't think it is a pipe dream to think that he could surpass 800/6. Anyway, considering he has already surpassed every one of those players in career yards and TDs (besides the GOAT Rice, who had 2 great seasons at age 39 and 40 remember), I certainly don't think it's a pipe dream that he has a better season #15 than all of them. Is that really unreasonable?
fantasizing
Footballguy
Back in the hay day Housh and Ocho were getting close to 150 targets each from Palmer, and Palmer was eclipsing 4000+ yards passing a season.
Not suggesting this will repeat itself with TO and Ocho, but just suggesting there are passes to be thrown if the coaches get off this "run first" team mentality.
Its not a stretch to believe TO could get 60-70 receptions. That's absurdly low for TO. He averaged greater than 15 yards per catch last year in the almightly powerfull Buffalo Bills offense. Assuming those reception totals and ypc averages hold, he's already close to 1000 yards receiving.
He will also get his fair share of TD catches. Palmer is one of the most accurate deep ball throwers, so there will undoubtably be a few deep bombs.
Add to that that TO is red zone target, I can't see the TD totals being low.
Not suggesting this will repeat itself with TO and Ocho, but just suggesting there are passes to be thrown if the coaches get off this "run first" team mentality.
Its not a stretch to believe TO could get 60-70 receptions. That's absurdly low for TO. He averaged greater than 15 yards per catch last year in the almightly powerfull Buffalo Bills offense. Assuming those reception totals and ypc averages hold, he's already close to 1000 yards receiving.
He will also get his fair share of TD catches. Palmer is one of the most accurate deep ball throwers, so there will undoubtably be a few deep bombs.
Add to that that TO is red zone target, I can't see the TD totals being low.
cobalt_27
Footballguy
60/850/7
footballsavvy
Footballguy
Anyone doubting Owen's work ethic, conditioning, athleticism, and now desire to succeed is greatly underestimating him.
He finally will play opposite another elite WR for the first time since Jerry Rice. Why did Rice's numbers jump in his late 30's.....Terrell Owens.
Owens dominated for 12 seasons on pure talent and athleticism while rarely having someone opposite him to pull double teams away. Sound familiar Calvin owners? He doesn't have to be as good as he was 5 years ago to put up the same stats he did 5 years ago.
Quick, who played opposite Owens in Philadelphia? Dallas? Exactly! Who will play opposite him in Cincy?
Cincy has a good running game that defenses must respect.
Palmer has put two WR's in the top 10 in the past. (Housh & Johnson)
T.O. will draw single coverage from a teams second best cover corner for the first time in his career.
I think 75/1180/10 TD's sounds right to me and don't be surprised if Owens and Ocho both finish top 20.
Age is only relevant if the body has broken down. Owens has stayed remarkably healthy his entire career. If Carson Palmer came away from their work out "Blown Away", why do any of you doubters feel you have a better assesment than a guy who has thrown to a a couple of NFL WR's in his day?
The only thing that could de-rail the Dance Party is conservative play calling or Palmer's elbow. Otherwise......get your popcorn ready!
He finally will play opposite another elite WR for the first time since Jerry Rice. Why did Rice's numbers jump in his late 30's.....Terrell Owens.
Owens dominated for 12 seasons on pure talent and athleticism while rarely having someone opposite him to pull double teams away. Sound familiar Calvin owners? He doesn't have to be as good as he was 5 years ago to put up the same stats he did 5 years ago.
Quick, who played opposite Owens in Philadelphia? Dallas? Exactly! Who will play opposite him in Cincy?
Cincy has a good running game that defenses must respect.
Palmer has put two WR's in the top 10 in the past. (Housh & Johnson)
T.O. will draw single coverage from a teams second best cover corner for the first time in his career.
I think 75/1180/10 TD's sounds right to me and don't be surprised if Owens and Ocho both finish top 20.
Age is only relevant if the body has broken down. Owens has stayed remarkably healthy his entire career. If Carson Palmer came away from their work out "Blown Away", why do any of you doubters feel you have a better assesment than a guy who has thrown to a a couple of NFL WR's in his day?
The only thing that could de-rail the Dance Party is conservative play calling or Palmer's elbow. Otherwise......get your popcorn ready!
VaTerp
Footballguy
Here we go again- First of all, I didn't say I expect it, I said I don't think it is a pipe dream to think that he could surpass 800/6. Anyway, considering he has already surpassed every one of those players in career yards and TDs (besides the GOAT Rice, who had 2 great seasons at age 39 and 40 remember), I certainly don't think it's a pipe dream that he has a better season #15 than all of them. Is that really unreasonable?
I think that all of the side drama throughout TO's career has clouded people's minds here a little bit. We are talking about one of the true elite WRs to ever play the game. Statistically, he is arguably the 2nd best WR of all time right now.Clearly at 36 he is past his prime but he did score 10 TDs just the year before and double digit TDs 4 of the last 5 years before that. I'll admit that I didnt watch a lot of Bill football last year and I haven't seen the game tape. But I suspect that most of those talking about his problems separating off the line didn't either and are going largely off of speculation or the words of TO doubters, of which they are many.
Now that he is back in a decent offense with a competent QB and other weapons around him, I think the upper end of some of these projections are certainly within reason. And while Ocho is good he has never been a TD monster. I could easily see Owens leading the Bengals in TD receptions, in fact I think he will.
My projection- 70-1060-10
Nero
Footballguy
TO's presence will help Ocho, not hurt him. Even though he didn't get many targets Chris Henry was key to keeping the double teams off of Ocho. Once Henry died, Ocho was smothered and really fell off.64 890 7 for TO
Jason Wood
Zoo York
I think only two of those would be considered LTBE incentives (the 60 catches and 900 yards) in terms of the salary cap, but certainly I'm sure TO will know what he needs to do to get PAID. The idea of 100/1300/14 for ANY receiver, even TO in his prime, would be hard to bet on so we really have to exclude those from any expectations, as I would hope Drew Rosenhaus has done with Owens.
I was thinking the same thing.I think TO still has what it takes, but even if his speed does start to fade, he is still a tall, physical receiver that can play a possession game if he had to. And TO does keep himself in good shape, so I expect he will be able to put up numbers late in his career like Rice did.and Palmer is the type of QB who knows how to use his weapons. I would draft him as a WR2, but It would not surprise me if he produces 1100 yard and 8-12 TD's for the year.
Jeremy
Footballguy
Does T.O. have the stomach to be a possession receiver? Is he willing to take those big hits going over the middle? I don't know. Skip Bayless says "no", but he's not T.O.'s biggest fan.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
TO averages 15 yards per catch, and still generates YAC, why would he be converted into a possession receiver? It's not like the Bengals don't know what kind of player Owens is, they didn't need the potential headache and drama if they wanted a possession receiver, that's what Gresham needs to do over the middle on occasion.
Verbal Kint
Footballguy
I'm curious what everybody's projections are for the rest of the Bengals offense that they are expecting TO to hit 1,000 yards. You can argue the TD production, and I'd be inclined to agree that he could maybe approach 10 TDs, but the yardage I just can't get there.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
You can see my full projections on the site. But for the sake of this conversation:
Code:
Name Pos GP Comp Atts % YPA Yds TD Int RshAtt Yds YPR TD Rec Yds YPC TD Pts Carson Palmer QB 16 328 530 61.9% 7.3 3,855 24 16 35 60 1.7 - 279 J.T. O'Sullivan QB 0 - - 0.0% - - Jordan Palmer QB 0 - - 0.0% - Cedric Benson RB 16 - - 0.0% 305 1,280 4.2 7 20 115 5.8 - 182 Bernard Scott RB 16 - - 0.0% 75 300 4.0 2 15 120 8.0 1 60 Brian Leonard RB 16 - - 0.0% 25 80 3.2 1 30 175 5.8 1 38 Fui Vakapuna RB 16 - - 0.0% - Chase Coffman TE 16 - - 0.0% 5 40 8.0 4 Daniel Coats TE 16 - - 0.0% 8 75 9.4 - 8 Jermaine Gresham TE 16 - - 0.0% 23 250 10.9 2 37 Chad Ochocinco WR 16 - - 0.0% 80 1,140 14.3 7 156 Antonio Bryant WR 12 - - 0.0% 40 480 12.0 4 72 Matt Jones WR 16 - - 0.0% 15 170 11.3 1 23 Jerome Simpson WR 16 - - 0.0% 2 20 10.0 - 2 Andre Caldwell WR 16 - - 0.0% 5 50 10.0 - 5 Terrell Owens WR 16 - - 0.0% 65 1,000 15.4 7 142 Jordan Shipley WR 16 - - 0.0% 20 220 11.0 1 28 Others XX 16 - - 0.0% - - - -Sopranos25
Footballguy
If Bryant is playing and isnt on the PUP list i dont think owens will get the yards. Cinn did lose some key pieces of the defense so its possible they my have to score and pass more. After seeing what he did in Buff he is still capable. But a few key drops and Bryant will play more and more. JMO
Verbal Kint
Footballguy
I agree with everything but this part. Who did they lose?
Sopranos25
Footballguy
Sorry i had them confused with another team. My bad
