The All Overated/Overhyped Team (1 Viewer)

[whodeywhodey]

QB: Schaub (just can't stay healthy and requires you to pick a decent backup soon after you draft him)

RB1: Chris Johnson (even before last night's game)

RB2: Steve Slaton (coach has already said he is going to lose carries)

WR1: Hester (call me crazy but I don't want my WR2 as someone who isn't actually a true WR)

WR2: TO (it is a mess on offense in Buffalo)

WR3: Roy Williams (yearly disappointment)

TE: None - I think they represent the best value this year of all positions

DEF: Baltimore (just because I have been seeing them taken first overall in some drafts)

Post yours next...

 

[Keith1]

disagree with Hester. I believe he will blossom this year. Certainly we know Cutler is: (a) going to look for him alot; and (b) has the arm to get it to him downfield.

 

[MAC_32]

QB - Matt Ryan

RB1 - Steve Slaton

RB2 - Ray Rice

WR1 - Dwayne Bowe

WR2 - Roy Williams

WR3 - Ted Ginn

TE - Kellen Winslow

This would have been a great thread for me to be posting in 2 months ago, when Slaton was going in mid round 1, D Ward in mid round 5, Bowe as early as round 2, and R Williams as early as late round 3. I still think these guys are all over rated, just not as much as before. I replaced Ward with Rice because Ward's value finally corrected itself, I like Rice just think some are expecting too much of him this season given where he was going in late drafts.

 

[Tanner9919]

Steven Jackson - just.can't.stay.healthy. take away his great 2006 season,and he barely gets 1000 rush yards/year. scores few rush TDs.catches only 38 balls on average. WAY too much hype for an oft-injured player who';s runnin for a team that'll be behind early and often in games this season.

Wes Welker - PPR machine.not too many yards, and not many TDs.

MJD - never been a starting RB.. MYTH: Jax line vastly improved. it's not.it's still the same garbage it always was.

"The Denver RB" - Shanny is gone,. so are the days of <enter player name here> being plugged into lineup and rushing for 1300 yards and 12 tds..welcome to the land of the biggest RBBC in football.

K. Moreno - see above.

Steve Smith - yeah, he avg'd about 100 yards/gm last season..if you look at his numbers throughout his career, he scores about 6-7 TDs/yr.usually catches about 80 balls..great with yards, but the guy doesn't score as much as you'd like from such a high draft choice..

T. Romo - will throw a 5 TD game just as wuickly as a 3 int game.

Percy Harvin - Florida Wr's don't pan out in the NFL.never have.never will.

anyone on the Bills roster.T. Edwards, Lynch, T.O.

 

[runner06]

Is this for fantasy or real life?

 

[fightingillini]

Steven Jackson - just.can't.stay.healthy. take away his great 2006 season,and he barely gets 1000 rush yards/year. scores few rush TDs.catches only 38 balls on average. WAY too much hype for an oft-injured player who';s runnin for a team that'll be behind early and often in games this season.

Wes Welker - PPR machine.not too many yards, and not many TDs.

MJD - never been a starting RB.. MYTH: Jax line vastly improved. it's not.it's still the same garbage it always was.

"The Denver RB" - Shanny is gone,. so are the days of <enter player name here> being plugged into lineup and rushing for 1300 yards and 12 tds..welcome to the land of the biggest RBBC in football.

K. Moreno - see above.

Steve Smith - yeah, he avg'd about 100 yards/gm last season..if you look at his numbers throughout his career, he scores about 6-7 TDs/yr.usually catches about 80 balls..great with yards, but the guy doesn't score as much as you'd like from such a high draft choice..

T. Romo - will throw a 5 TD game just as wuickly as a 3 int game.

Percy Harvin - Florida Wr's don't pan out in the NFL.never have.never will.

anyone on the Bills roster.T. Edwards, Lynch, T.O.

Agree with Steven Jackson. STL blows, and Jackson gets nicked up often.Wouldn't call Welker overrated in PPR leagues. What's wrong with 100/1100/7 from a WR2 in a PPR league?

Totally disagree about MJD. He had 197 carries and 62 receptions, for a total of 259 touches. He averaged 4.2 YPC and 9 YPR.....even with the horrible line last year. It's not like he's been in a typical part time role. I believe he'll carry the ball 250 times and get 55-60 receptions.....that's a total of 305-310 touches, or only about 45-50 more than last year......yet some feel he will break down........ He's gold in a PPR league.

Slightly disagree on Moreno......definitely has the most talent of all DEN RBs, and should get the lion's share of carries in a few weeks. They didn't draft him in the top 15 to participate in an RBBC. The reason why he won't rush for 1300 yds and score 12 TDs because DEN isn't a good team like the past. But he still has a good shot at 1000 rush yards and 7-8 TDs.

Disagree on S Smith. Smith is a solid 3 round choice. Last year was an aberration in the TD department. I live in CAR and watched the games....Smith was stopped at the 1 or 2 yard line quite often. He will never be in the elite category due to CAR being a run first team, but Smith is still a solid 3 round option, and far from overrated.

Agree with Romo. DAL should run the ball more often this year. Losing TO was a big blow to the offense.

Agree with Harvin.

 

[Sheriff66]

Forte, I avoided him like the plague this year.

 

[basher]

QB: Schaub (just can't stay healthy and requires you to pick a decent backup soon after you draft him)

RB1: Chris Johnson (even before last night's game)

RB2: Steve Slaton (coach has already said he is going to lose carries)

WR1: Hester (call me crazy but I don't want my WR2 as someone who isn't actually a true WR)

WR2: TO (it is a mess on offense in Buffalo)

WR3: Roy Williams (yearly disappointment)

TE: None - I think they represent the best value this year of all positions

DEF: Baltimore (just because I have been seeing them taken first overall in some drafts)

Post yours next...

CJ did just fine last night against the best run D in the league. he had a higher YPC then the steelers allowed all last season and this is a D that you don't score that many running TDs on (7 total last season) ... He unfortunately suffered from the fact that they couldn't block the steelers pass rush and couldn't cover the blitz without him. What does it say about Fat Lendale when they keep CJ in the backfield during obvious blitz scenarios (lendale gets out blocked by little Chris Johnson) ... the only problem I see with Chris Johnson is his #### locks.Slaton will lose what a handful of carries a game to Chris Brown who has never ever proved he was durable. I wouldn't worry about that one bit.

The rest of your list is fine minus the balt D. They will still be one of the highest scoring defenses since they ball hawk so well and cover so much ground. They also have combos of big fat d-lineman (Gregg and Haloti are studs for sure) and rush lbs ... they will be just fine.

 

[fightingillini]

QB - Romo......DAL will run the ball more often IMO.

RB - CJohnson......guy is awesome, but should lose a lot of TD opportunities to LenDale. Couldn't spend a 1st rounder on that.

WR - Roy Williams - just isn't that good. Witten is the top option in DAL, and DAL likes to give the ball to Marion Barber near the goalline.

 

[whodeywhodey]

disagree with Hester. I believe he will blossom this year. Certainly we know Cutler is: (a) going to look for him alot; and (b) has the arm to get it to him downfield.

You might be correct about hester. I just don't like him where I would have to draft him.

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

MJD - never been a starting RB.. MYTH: Jax line vastly improved. it's not.it's still the same garbage it always was."

Wait, are you saying he needs a great line to produce?

 

[SSOG]

QB: Schaub (just can't stay healthy and requires you to pick a decent backup soon after you draft him)

RB1: Chris Johnson (even before last night's game)

RB2: Steve Slaton (coach has already said he is going to lose carries)

WR1: Hester (call me crazy but I don't want my WR2 as someone who isn't actually a true WR)

WR2: TO (it is a mess on offense in Buffalo)

WR3: Roy Williams (yearly disappointment)

TE: None - I think they represent the best value this year of all positions

DEF: Baltimore (just because I have been seeing them taken first overall in some drafts)

Post yours next...

Schaub- he "can't stay healthy" because NFL defenders illegally blow out his knees. Unless you think this is going to be a common occurance, I don't get the concern. When healthy, he gives you top-5 numbers at a price outside of the top 10. Sure, you might want a better than average backup... but that's true of ANY QB1 that you draft outside the top 10.Chris Johnson- kid's a stud. Even though his numbers didn't reflect it last night, he really made stuff happen in a big way. Out of this world talent.

Steve Slaton- he was overrated, but now I think he's generally accurately rated by 90% of FFers and overrated by 10%.

Hester- How about I call you crazy for considering the 34th WR off the board a WR2. According to ADP, he's a very, very low-end WR3 at best... which, in my opinion, actually underrates him.

TO- No argument here.

Roy- No argument here.

TE- plenty of overrated TEs. I'll start with Dallas Clark, who is being drafted juuuuuust behind the three studs and is about to see his production crushed by Gonzalez.

Def- If someone really took Baltimore with the first pick of the draft, then I'll agree that they're overrated.

Steven Jackson - just.can't.stay.healthy. take away his great 2006 season,and he barely gets 1000 rush yards/year. scores few rush TDs.catches only 38 balls on average. WAY too much hype for an oft-injured player who';s runnin for a team that'll be behind early and often in games this season.

Wes Welker - PPR machine.not too many yards, and not many TDs.

MJD - never been a starting RB.. MYTH: Jax line vastly improved. it's not.it's still the same garbage it always was.

"The Denver RB" - Shanny is gone,. so are the days of <enter player name here> being plugged into lineup and rushing for 1300 yards and 12 tds..welcome to the land of the biggest RBBC in football.

K. Moreno - see above.

Steve Smith - yeah, he avg'd about 100 yards/gm last season..if you look at his numbers throughout his career, he scores about 6-7 TDs/yr.usually catches about 80 balls..great with yards, but the guy doesn't score as much as you'd like from such a high draft choice..

T. Romo - will throw a 5 TD game just as wuickly as a 3 int game.

Percy Harvin - Florida Wr's don't pan out in the NFL.never have.never will.

anyone on the Bills roster.T. Edwards, Lynch, T.O.

SJax is perennially a top 3 RB in PPG. He's worth his draft position.MJD- The line's as bad as it's ALWAYS been? Two years ago, the line was really, really good. Last year, they lost three linemen by the end of week 1 and were really, really bad. Now those three linemen are back. I *HOPE* the line is as "garbage" as it was in 2007.

"Denver RB"/Knowshon Moreno- Shanny is gone. Rick Dennison, Bobby Turner, Ryan Clady, Ben Hamilton, Casey Weigmann, Chris Kuper, and Ryan Harris remain.

Steve Smith- In three of the last four years, Smiff has finished 1st, 8th, and 5th (the fourth year, his Qb was David Carr). I don't care how many TDs he scores- he's being drafted as the 5th WR off the board, and he consistently produces as the 5th WR off the board. Unless your league doesn't award receiving yards or something...

Tony Romo- Plenty of QBs fit that description. Tom Brady had a 4 INT game in '01, '03, '04, '05, and '06. If Romo's overrated, it's because his WRs are trash (although his TEs are studs, so we'll see how that plays out).

Percy Harvin- 70/1081/8. 76/1091/5. 68/1137/9. 68/1137/9. 87/1199/7. 101/1285/8. 78/1176/12. Are these projections for Percy Harvin's career? Nope, they're the stats Darrell Jackson (former Florida WR) put up from 2001 to 2006 (pro-rated where necessary). That's the problem with the word "never"- when you use it, you're usually wrong.

 

[Buffaloes]

TE- plenty of overrated TEs. I'll start with Dallas Clark, who is being drafted juuuuuust behind the three studs and is about to see his production crushed by Gonzalez.

Interesting. I am pretty high on Clark this year mainly because I feel he will be Manning's #2 target after Reggie Wayne. The guy is a monster out of the slot and has been a good red zone target for the Colts. I figured with Harrison moving on and Gonzalez being (in my own estimation) a step down at WR, Clark would be the beneficiary. Why do you think his production is about to be crushed by Gonzalez?

 

[Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub]

QB: Matt Schaub [stay healthy & throw more than 15 td's and I'll take a look]

RB: Ronnie Brown

WR: Roy Williams

TE: Antonio Gates [don't doubt the talent, but believe the surrounding targets are much better]

 

[SSOG]

TE- plenty of overrated TEs. I'll start with Dallas Clark, who is being drafted juuuuuust behind the three studs and is about to see his production crushed by Gonzalez.

Interesting. I am pretty high on Clark this year mainly because I feel he will be Manning's #2 target after Reggie Wayne. The guy is a monster out of the slot and has been a good red zone target for the Colts. I figured with Harrison moving on and Gonzalez being (in my own estimation) a step down at WR, Clark would be the beneficiary. Why do you think his production is about to be crushed by Gonzalez?

Gonzalez might be a step down from Harrison three years ago, but he's a huge step up from Harrison last year. I also like Collie and Garcon and think the WR3 is going to figure more prominently in Indy than it has since Stokley left. The other thing that I don't like about Dallas Clark is that he's been productive the last two seasons... but in radically different ways. Two years ago, his reception and yardage totals were just a bit above his career norm, but his TD totals were more than double his career high. Last year, his TD totals were just a bit above his career norm, but his reception totals were more than double his pre-2007 career high, and his yardage totals very nearly were, as well. Which is he? Is he a top TE because he's a huge TD threat, like in 2007 (an Antonio Gates-type, if you will)? Is he a top TE because he's going to post huge reception and yardage totals, like in 2008 (a Jason Witten-type, if you will)? Or were his TDs a fluke in '07 and his yards a fluke in '08? The other big reason to be down on him is because he really hasn't been a TE for the last two seasons. In 2007, he spent an overwhelming majority of his snaps lining up at WR, not TE. Last year he was back to playing TE most of the time, but he still spent a lot more time lined up as a WR3 than any other TE in the league. As I said, I like Collie and Garcon, and I think their development is going to severely limit Clark's time as the WR3, which will in turn limit his production a bit. I think Dallas Clark has a good shot at a top-6 TE season this year, but I don't think he's going to finish anywhere NEAR the elite tier (which he'd have to do to justify his draft position, which was a mere 9 picks behind Antonio Gates and 5 picks behind Tony Gonzalez). So I suppose I should say that I don't think he's overrated as the 4th TE off the board, I just think he's overrated as a mid-5th rounder.

 

[cjack]

QB: Schaub (just can't stay healthy and requires you to pick a decent backup soon after you draft him)

RB1: Chris Johnson (even before last night's game)

RB2: Steve Slaton (coach has already said he is going to lose carries)

WR1: Hester (call me crazy but I don't want my WR2 as someone who isn't actually a true WR)

WR2: TO (it is a mess on offense in Buffalo)

WR3: Roy Williams (yearly disappointment)

TE: None - I think they represent the best value this year of all positions

DEF: Baltimore (just because I have been seeing them taken first overall in some drafts)

Post yours next...

Schaub- he "can't stay healthy" because NFL defenders illegally blow out his knees. Unless you think this is going to be a common occurance, I don't get the concern. When healthy, he gives you top-5 numbers at a price outside of the top 10. Sure, you might want a better than average backup... but that's true of ANY QB1 that you draft outside the top 10.Chris Johnson- kid's a stud. Even though his numbers didn't reflect it last night, he really made stuff happen in a big way. Out of this world talent.

Steve Slaton- he was overrated, but now I think he's generally accurately rated by 90% of FFers and overrated by 10%.

Hester- How about I call you crazy for considering the 34th WR off the board a WR2. According to ADP, he's a very, very low-end WR3 at best... which, in my opinion, actually underrates him.

TO- No argument here.

Roy- No argument here.

TE- plenty of overrated TEs. I'll start with Dallas Clark, who is being drafted juuuuuust behind the three studs and is about to see his production crushed by Gonzalez.

Def- If someone really took Baltimore with the first pick of the draft, then I'll agree that they're overrated.

Steven Jackson - just.can't.stay.healthy. take away his great 2006 season,and he barely gets 1000 rush yards/year. scores few rush TDs.catches only 38 balls on average. WAY too much hype for an oft-injured player who';s runnin for a team that'll be behind early and often in games this season.

Wes Welker - PPR machine.not too many yards, and not many TDs.

MJD - never been a starting RB.. MYTH: Jax line vastly improved. it's not.it's still the same garbage it always was.

"The Denver RB" - Shanny is gone,. so are the days of <enter player name here> being plugged into lineup and rushing for 1300 yards and 12 tds..welcome to the land of the biggest RBBC in football.

K. Moreno - see above.

Steve Smith - yeah, he avg'd about 100 yards/gm last season..if you look at his numbers throughout his career, he scores about 6-7 TDs/yr.usually catches about 80 balls..great with yards, but the guy doesn't score as much as you'd like from such a high draft choice..

T. Romo - will throw a 5 TD game just as wuickly as a 3 int game.

Percy Harvin - Florida Wr's don't pan out in the NFL.never have.never will.

anyone on the Bills roster.T. Edwards, Lynch, T.O.

Percy Harvin- 70/1081/8. 76/1091/5. 68/1137/9. 68/1137/9. 87/1199/7. 101/1285/8. 78/1176/12. Are these projections for Percy Harvin's career? Nope, they're the stats Darrell Jackson (former Florida WR) put up from 2001 to 2006 (pro-rated where necessary). That's the problem with the word "never"- when you use it, you're usually wrong.

I noticed a couple of things about your Darrell Jackson stats. One they're not very impressive to begin with, but you counted one of his better years twice (2003), and omitted his pedestrian rookie year. More importantly, it's interesting how you left out his last two years, which were abysmal, and how you pro-rated his stats as though his history of getting banged up somehow isn't relevant. He never scored more than 10 TDs in a season, and he averaged less than 6 TDs per year over his career. Was he a huge bust? No, but he was hardly a stud.Does Darrell Jackson's career have anything to do with Percy Harvin? No, not really, but the point is valid that Florida WRs rarely live up to their hype in the NFL.

 

[SSOG]

I noticed a couple of things about your Darrell Jackson stats. One they're not very impressive to begin with, but you counted one of his better years twice (2003), and omitted his pedestrian rookie year. More importantly, it's interesting how you left out his last two years, which were abysmal, and how you pro-rated his stats as though his history of getting banged up somehow isn't relevant. He never scored more than 10 TDs in a season, and he averaged less than 6 TDs per year over his career. Was he a huge bust? No, but he was hardly a stud.Does Darrell Jackson's career have anything to do with Percy Harvin? No, not really, but the point is valid that Florida WRs rarely live up to their hype in the NFL.

Good catch on listing 2003 twice- that was a typo. Yes, I omitted his rookie year and his last two years, but that's because 98% of WRs suck during their first and last years in the league, so the fact that DJax sucked during his first and last years is pretty irrelevant. I also pro-rated his numbers because the OP's point was that Florida WRs don't succeed, not that Florida WRs are injury prone. Darrell Jackson went through a 6-year stretch where he was a consistent top-15-type fantasy WR. Very, very, very few WRs wind up with more successful primes. From 2001 to 2006, here were the league leaders in terms of ypg receiving:Torry Holt (87.8)Marvin Harrison (86.6)Terrell Owens (84.8)Chad Ochocinco (75.3)Joe Horn (73.0)Randy Moss (72.6)Darrell Jackson (71.7)There is *NO* shame in ranking behind those six. If you want to go by total yards instead of yards per game (to penalize him for his missed time), then DJax also ranks behind Hines Ward, Derrick Mason, Laveranues Coles, Plaxico Burress, Isaac Bruce, and Rod Smith... once again, no shame there. He also ranks *AHEAD* of Keyshawn Johnson, Donald Driver, Reggie Wayne, Eric Moulds, Muhsin Muhammad, Amani Toomer, and Joey Galloway. No matter *HOW* you slice it, Darrell Jackson was an extremely productive player during his prime. Any suggestion that a Florida WR has *NEVER* "panned out" is blatantly and absurdly false.Besides being blatantly false, it's also patently absurd. Am I supposed to believe that whether Percy Harvin succeeds or fails has the slightest bit to do with Ike Hilliard? "Geez, if only Ike Hilliard was a little bit faster, Percy Harvin might have a chance at becoming a legit NFL WR...". Edit: Speaking of Ike Hilliard... if you're still in the league after 12 years, you're doing something right. Hilliard has 6000 career receiving yards. It's not like he's Charles Rodgers, here.

 

[cjack]

I noticed a couple of things about your Darrell Jackson stats. One they're not very impressive to begin with, but you counted one of his better years twice (2003), and omitted his pedestrian rookie year. More importantly, it's interesting how you left out his last two years, which were abysmal, and how you pro-rated his stats as though his history of getting banged up somehow isn't relevant. He never scored more than 10 TDs in a season, and he averaged less than 6 TDs per year over his career. Was he a huge bust? No, but he was hardly a stud.Does Darrell Jackson's career have anything to do with Percy Harvin? No, not really, but the point is valid that Florida WRs rarely live up to their hype in the NFL.

Good catch on listing 2003 twice- that was a typo. Yes, I omitted his rookie year and his last two years, but that's because 98% of WRs suck during their first and last years in the league, so the fact that DJax sucked during his first and last years is pretty irrelevant. I also pro-rated his numbers because the OP's point was that Florida WRs don't succeed, not that Florida WRs are injury prone. Darrell Jackson went through a 6-year stretch where he was a consistent top-15-type fantasy WR. Very, very, very few WRs wind up with more successful primes. From 2001 to 2006, here were the league leaders in terms of ypg receiving:Torry Holt (87.8)Marvin Harrison (86.6)Terrell Owens (84.8)Chad Ochocinco (75.3)Joe Horn (73.0)Randy Moss (72.6)Darrell Jackson (71.7)There is *NO* shame in ranking behind those six. If you want to go by total yards instead of yards per game (to penalize him for his missed time), then DJax also ranks behind Hines Ward, Derrick Mason, Laveranues Coles, Plaxico Burress, Isaac Bruce, and Rod Smith... once again, no shame there. He also ranks *AHEAD* of Keyshawn Johnson, Donald Driver, Reggie Wayne, Eric Moulds, Muhsin Muhammad, Amani Toomer, and Joey Galloway. No matter *HOW* you slice it, Darrell Jackson was an extremely productive player during his prime. Any suggestion that a Florida WR has *NEVER* "panned out" is blatantly and absurdly false.Besides being blatantly false, it's also patently absurd. Am I supposed to believe that whether Percy Harvin succeeds or fails has the slightest bit to do with Ike Hilliard? "Geez, if only Ike Hilliard was a little bit faster, Percy Harvin might have a chance at becoming a legit NFL WR...". Edit: Speaking of Ike Hilliard... if you're still in the league after 12 years, you're doing something right. Hilliard has 6000 career receiving yards. It's not like he's Charles Rodgers, here.

Ike HilliardJacquez GreenReidel AnthonyTravis TaylorReche CaldwellJabar GaffneyAndre CaldwellChad JacksonI think it's safe to say none of these guys catapulted a team to their fantasy league playoffs. Can Harvin buck the trend? Sure, he's not bound by their failures, but history says there's something about Florida WRs that doesn't translate to success in the NFL.People like Hilliard and Darrell Jackson earned their paychecks I guess, but they were hardly superstars.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

I noticed a couple of things about your Darrell Jackson stats. One they're not very impressive to begin with, but you counted one of his better years twice (2003), and omitted his pedestrian rookie year. More importantly, it's interesting how you left out his last two years, which were abysmal, and how you pro-rated his stats as though his history of getting banged up somehow isn't relevant. He never scored more than 10 TDs in a season, and he averaged less than 6 TDs per year over his career. Was he a huge bust? No, but he was hardly a stud.Does Darrell Jackson's career have anything to do with Percy Harvin? No, not really, but the point is valid that Florida WRs rarely live up to their hype in the NFL.

Good catch on listing 2003 twice- that was a typo. Yes, I omitted his rookie year and his last two years, but that's because 98% of WRs suck during their first and last years in the league, so the fact that DJax sucked during his first and last years is pretty irrelevant. I also pro-rated his numbers because the OP's point was that Florida WRs don't succeed, not that Florida WRs are injury prone. Darrell Jackson went through a 6-year stretch where he was a consistent top-15-type fantasy WR. Very, very, very few WRs wind up with more successful primes. From 2001 to 2006, here were the league leaders in terms of ypg receiving:Torry Holt (87.8)Marvin Harrison (86.6)Terrell Owens (84.8)Chad Ochocinco (75.3)Joe Horn (73.0)Randy Moss (72.6)Darrell Jackson (71.7)There is *NO* shame in ranking behind those six. If you want to go by total yards instead of yards per game (to penalize him for his missed time), then DJax also ranks behind Hines Ward, Derrick Mason, Laveranues Coles, Plaxico Burress, Isaac Bruce, and Rod Smith... once again, no shame there. He also ranks *AHEAD* of Keyshawn Johnson, Donald Driver, Reggie Wayne, Eric Moulds, Muhsin Muhammad, Amani Toomer, and Joey Galloway. No matter *HOW* you slice it, Darrell Jackson was an extremely productive player during his prime. Any suggestion that a Florida WR has *NEVER* "panned out" is blatantly and absurdly false.Besides being blatantly false, it's also patently absurd. Am I supposed to believe that whether Percy Harvin succeeds or fails has the slightest bit to do with Ike Hilliard? "Geez, if only Ike Hilliard was a little bit faster, Percy Harvin might have a chance at becoming a legit NFL WR...". Edit: Speaking of Ike Hilliard... if you're still in the league after 12 years, you're doing something right. Hilliard has 6000 career receiving yards. It's not like he's Charles Rodgers, here.

Ike HilliardJacquez GreenReidel AnthonyTravis TaylorReche CaldwellJabar GaffneyAndre CaldwellChad JacksonI think it's safe to say none of these guys catapulted a team to their fantasy league playoffs. Can Harvin buck the trend? Sure, he's not bound by their failures, but history says there's something about Florida WRs that doesn't translate to success in the NFL.People like Hilliard and Darrell Jackson earned their paychecks I guess, but they were hardly superstars.

How does Percy Harvin, playing college ball under coach Urban Meyer, relate in any way, shape or form to the list above, who played for Steve Spurrier?

 

[bcr8f]

QB - Matt RyanRB1 - Steve SlatonRB2 - Ray RiceWR1 - Dwayne BoweWR2 - Roy WilliamsWR3 - Ted GinnTE - Kellen WinslowThis would have been a great thread for me to be posting in 2 months ago, when Slaton was going in mid round 1, D Ward in mid round 5, Bowe as early as round 2, and R Williams as early as late round 3. I still think these guys are all over rated, just not as much as before. I replaced Ward with Rice because Ward's value finally corrected itself, I like Rice just think some are expecting too much of him this season given where he was going in late drafts.

Ray Rice is going at RB #30.

 

[CR69]

How has what previous players done under different coaches and systems relevant to what Harvin will do? That's like saying Dez Bryant won't be a stud because Rashaun Woods didn't pan out. That's a pretty weak argument imo.

Harvin is a very explosive player with good hands and vision, I think the biggest question is going to be his motivation level over the course of his career. I think it's good that he dropped, hopefully it will push him like it has Desean Jackson and Eddie Royal.

 

[GDogg]

I noticed a couple of things about your Darrell Jackson stats. One they're not very impressive to begin with, but you counted one of his better years twice (2003), and omitted his pedestrian rookie year. More importantly, it's interesting how you left out his last two years, which were abysmal, and how you pro-rated his stats as though his history of getting banged up somehow isn't relevant. He never scored more than 10 TDs in a season, and he averaged less than 6 TDs per year over his career. Was he a huge bust? No, but he was hardly a stud.Does Darrell Jackson's career have anything to do with Percy Harvin? No, not really, but the point is valid that Florida WRs rarely live up to their hype in the NFL.

Good catch on listing 2003 twice- that was a typo. Yes, I omitted his rookie year and his last two years, but that's because 98% of WRs suck during their first and last years in the league, so the fact that DJax sucked during his first and last years is pretty irrelevant. I also pro-rated his numbers because the OP's point was that Florida WRs don't succeed, not that Florida WRs are injury prone. Darrell Jackson went through a 6-year stretch where he was a consistent top-15-type fantasy WR. Very, very, very few WRs wind up with more successful primes. From 2001 to 2006, here were the league leaders in terms of ypg receiving:Torry Holt (87.8)Marvin Harrison (86.6)Terrell Owens (84.8)Chad Ochocinco (75.3)Joe Horn (73.0)Randy Moss (72.6)Darrell Jackson (71.7)There is *NO* shame in ranking behind those six. If you want to go by total yards instead of yards per game (to penalize him for his missed time), then DJax also ranks behind Hines Ward, Derrick Mason, Laveranues Coles, Plaxico Burress, Isaac Bruce, and Rod Smith... once again, no shame there. He also ranks *AHEAD* of Keyshawn Johnson, Donald Driver, Reggie Wayne, Eric Moulds, Muhsin Muhammad, Amani Toomer, and Joey Galloway. No matter *HOW* you slice it, Darrell Jackson was an extremely productive player during his prime. Any suggestion that a Florida WR has *NEVER* "panned out" is blatantly and absurdly false.Besides being blatantly false, it's also patently absurd. Am I supposed to believe that whether Percy Harvin succeeds or fails has the slightest bit to do with Ike Hilliard? "Geez, if only Ike Hilliard was a little bit faster, Percy Harvin might have a chance at becoming a legit NFL WR...". Edit: Speaking of Ike Hilliard... if you're still in the league after 12 years, you're doing something right. Hilliard has 6000 career receiving yards. It's not like he's Charles Rodgers, here.

Ike HilliardJacquez GreenReidel AnthonyTravis TaylorReche CaldwellJabar GaffneyAndre CaldwellChad JacksonI think it's safe to say none of these guys catapulted a team to their fantasy league playoffs. Can Harvin buck the trend? Sure, he's not bound by their failures, but history says there's something about Florida WRs that doesn't translate to success in the NFL.People like Hilliard and Darrell Jackson earned their paychecks I guess, but they were hardly superstars.

How many of them played on the Urban Meyer regime?

 

[cjack]

I noticed a couple of things about your Darrell Jackson stats. One they're not very impressive to begin with, but you counted one of his better years twice (2003), and omitted his pedestrian rookie year. More importantly, it's interesting how you left out his last two years, which were abysmal, and how you pro-rated his stats as though his history of getting banged up somehow isn't relevant. He never scored more than 10 TDs in a season, and he averaged less than 6 TDs per year over his career. Was he a huge bust? No, but he was hardly a stud.Does Darrell Jackson's career have anything to do with Percy Harvin? No, not really, but the point is valid that Florida WRs rarely live up to their hype in the NFL.

Good catch on listing 2003 twice- that was a typo. Yes, I omitted his rookie year and his last two years, but that's because 98% of WRs suck during their first and last years in the league, so the fact that DJax sucked during his first and last years is pretty irrelevant. I also pro-rated his numbers because the OP's point was that Florida WRs don't succeed, not that Florida WRs are injury prone. Darrell Jackson went through a 6-year stretch where he was a consistent top-15-type fantasy WR. Very, very, very few WRs wind up with more successful primes. From 2001 to 2006, here were the league leaders in terms of ypg receiving:Torry Holt (87.8)Marvin Harrison (86.6)Terrell Owens (84.8)Chad Ochocinco (75.3)Joe Horn (73.0)Randy Moss (72.6)Darrell Jackson (71.7)There is *NO* shame in ranking behind those six. If you want to go by total yards instead of yards per game (to penalize him for his missed time), then DJax also ranks behind Hines Ward, Derrick Mason, Laveranues Coles, Plaxico Burress, Isaac Bruce, and Rod Smith... once again, no shame there. He also ranks *AHEAD* of Keyshawn Johnson, Donald Driver, Reggie Wayne, Eric Moulds, Muhsin Muhammad, Amani Toomer, and Joey Galloway. No matter *HOW* you slice it, Darrell Jackson was an extremely productive player during his prime. Any suggestion that a Florida WR has *NEVER* "panned out" is blatantly and absurdly false.Besides being blatantly false, it's also patently absurd. Am I supposed to believe that whether Percy Harvin succeeds or fails has the slightest bit to do with Ike Hilliard? "Geez, if only Ike Hilliard was a little bit faster, Percy Harvin might have a chance at becoming a legit NFL WR...". Edit: Speaking of Ike Hilliard... if you're still in the league after 12 years, you're doing something right. Hilliard has 6000 career receiving yards. It's not like he's Charles Rodgers, here.

Ike HilliardJacquez GreenReidel AnthonyTravis TaylorReche CaldwellJabar GaffneyAndre CaldwellChad JacksonI think it's safe to say none of these guys catapulted a team to their fantasy league playoffs. Can Harvin buck the trend? Sure, he's not bound by their failures, but history says there's something about Florida WRs that doesn't translate to success in the NFL.People like Hilliard and Darrell Jackson earned their paychecks I guess, but they were hardly superstars.

How does Percy Harvin, playing college ball under coach Urban Meyer, relate in any way, shape or form to the list above, who played for Steve Spurrier?

Well, I'd list the WRs who played ball under Urban Meyer, but I don't know any. The only offensive player I know that played under Meyer, other than Harvin and those listed above, is Alex Smith (another player overhyped by the system he played in).

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Draft stuff is already leaving my head in favor of lineup stuff, but here are some guys I avoided.

QB - Romo (many guys this year will have more than his ~22 TDs)

RB1 - Matt Forte (not worth a 1st round pick to me)

RB2 - Pierre Thomas (easy to say now, I guess, but I did avoid him)

RB3 - many I don't like here, but Benson and Larry Johnson have horrible scheds (drafted LJ for one team though)

WR1 - Calvin Johnson (awesome talent, not awesome situation)

WR2 - TO (borderline WR2 now, right? nagging injuries all year, a relatively poor season)

WR3 - Devin Hester (expecting negligible development, I'll take my chances elsewhere)

FLEX - Percy Harvin (DO NOT WANT)

TE - Olsen (startable, but not the insta-stud expected as Clark still gets his)

K - I dunno, the guy on drugs. No wait, I like him.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

...Is he a top TE because he's a huge TD threat, like in 2007 (an Antonio Gates-type, if you will)? Is he a top TE because he's going to post huge reception and yardage totals, like in 2008 (a Jason Witten-type, if you will)? Or were his TDs a fluke in '07 and his yards a fluke in '08? The other big reason to be down on him is because he really hasn't been a TE for the last two seasons. In 2007, he spent an overwhelming majority of his snaps lining up at WR, not TE. Last year he was back to playing TE most of the time, but he still spent a lot more time lined up as a WR3 than any other TE in the league. As I said, I like Collie and Garcon, and I think their development is going to severely limit Clark's time as the WR3, which will in turn limit his production a bit.

Kudos, as usual, on a well argued and laid out post, SSOG. Let me play devil's advocate and say...or is Clark going to have a year where he puts it all together and gets a decent amount of receptions ALONG WITH a decent amount of red zone opportunities?No question Gonzalez is right there to pick up the slack and step up and take many receiving looks away from Clark. But the fact that the guy has lined up as a WR more than any other TE in the league works to underscore his value, and not to overrate his potential. Yes, Collie and Garcon are there to take up the WR3, but in order to say that this will make Clark an overrated option at TE, you need to ut a lot of stock in the fact that Collie and Garcon will be more effective in that role than Clark has already proven he could be. They've both shown flashes of decency in preseason, but again, Clark is a proven commodity in the clutch, where Collie and Garcon aren't necessarily.You also have to put stock in the fact that Collie and Garcon can do it as reliably as Clark has shown he could do.In order to believe Clark to be overrated, the Colts would have to move substantially away from what's worked for them in the past in terms of Clark's utilization. Not saying Clark has the potential to have more of a down year with more options on the field, but again, as devil's advocate, I don't think this makes him overrated given his consistent production and worth in the past.

 

[SSOG]

Ike HilliardJacquez GreenReidel AnthonyTravis TaylorReche CaldwellJabar GaffneyAndre CaldwellChad JacksonI think it's safe to say none of these guys catapulted a team to their fantasy league playoffs. Can Harvin buck the trend? Sure, he's not bound by their failures, but history says there's something about Florida WRs that doesn't translate to success in the NFL.People like Hilliard and Darrell Jackson earned their paychecks I guess, but they were hardly superstars.

The point wasn't that Florida WRs have generally fallen short of their billing, though. The point was, and this is a direct quote here, that "Florida Wr's don't pan out in the NFL.never have.never will."That statement is absolutely, positively, unequivocally 100% false. In addition to Darrell Jackson (who was a quality WR1 for 6 years) and Ike Hilliard (who lasted 12 years in the league and has 6,000 career receiving yards), Travis Taylor was also an NFL-caliber WR (albeit not worth a top-10 selection) with 8 years in the league and 4000 career receiving yards. Gaffney's still around and kicking (and apparently looking pretty good as a WR3 in Denver this year). Andre Caldwell was only a 3rd rounder, and he's in his second year, anyway- a bit too early to close the book there. It's true that only DJax has lived up to (or exceeded) his draft expectations, but there have been several Florida WRs who have "panned out".

 

[SSOG]

Kudos, as usual, on a well argued and laid out post, SSOG. Let me play devil's advocate and say...or is Clark going to have a year where he puts it all together and gets a decent amount of receptions ALONG WITH a decent amount of red zone opportunities?No question Gonzalez is right there to pick up the slack and step up and take many receiving looks away from Clark. But the fact that the guy has lined up as a WR more than any other TE in the league works to underscore his value, and not to overrate his potential. Yes, Collie and Garcon are there to take up the WR3, but in order to say that this will make Clark an overrated option at TE, you need to ut a lot of stock in the fact that Collie and Garcon will be more effective in that role than Clark has already proven he could be. They've both shown flashes of decency in preseason, but again, Clark is a proven commodity in the clutch, where Collie and Garcon aren't necessarily.You also have to put stock in the fact that Collie and Garcon can do it as reliably as Clark has shown he could do.In order to believe Clark to be overrated, the Colts would have to move substantially away from what's worked for them in the past in terms of Clark's utilization. Not saying Clark has the potential to have more of a down year with more options on the field, but again, as devil's advocate, I don't think this makes him overrated given his consistent production and worth in the past.

Garcon's in his second year, and Collie is a rookie. They're both going to be given a chance in the lineup even if they AREN'T as proven as Clark, because that's the only way a player can ever GET proven. Besides, it's not like, from the Colts perspective, it's an either/or situation. You can have Garcon on the field as your 3rd WR and still keep Clark out as a TE. I'm just expecting Clark to spend a lot less time split wide this year. With Donald Brown in town, too, there's another risk of "too many mouths to feed" syndrome. Will Clark be the guy they go to in the 4th quarter when down by 3? Maybe... but from a fantasy perspective, that won't help much if Collie and Garcon have been the guys they've been going to in the first three quarters.Like I said, I think Clark is a safe bet to finish in the top 6 at his position, but he'd need to challenge Gates/Witten in order to justify his draft position, and I don't see it happening due to a confluence of circumstances. I also think Gonzo is really, really overrated this year (he's another guy who spent much of last year playing honest-to-goodness WR instead of TE), I just figured Clark would be a less controversial selection.

 

[DoubleG]

QB - Romo - Without T.O., his WR1 is an underachieving, self-centered, whiner (without nearly the talent as the previous self-centered, whiner)

RB - Chris Johnson - 1st round for a guy who doesn't get goal line and splits time is just a little too high.

WRs - both Denver WRs. Royal and Marshal are going to take a major step backwards statistically speaking in '09 for two reaons:

1) Kyle Orton - he isn't accurate deep. Defenses will realize (as they did last year against the Bears) that he can't hit the deep ball and will play tighter up close (i.e. they'll jump the slants, break hard on the "out" as there will be no "up")

2) Knowshon Moreno - McD is going to show the world why he drafted him at 12 even though his defense stunk.

TE - Gonzo - New team, new role, getting older, on a team that runs first, when they DO pass it's more to the widouts and Ryan already has a repoire with Roddy as his goto guy. I'd be shocked if he cracks the top 12 in '09.



K - seriously?

 

[Bills_Fan11]

I've done a ridiculous number of mocks this year and really only ended up with a couple guys who were basically never on my team: Bowe and Winslow. Maybe Warner and Thomas if I had to pick a QB and RB.

The Schaub votes to me are a little silly. I'm curious who is going after him that people would be just as good with. I guess you could make arguments for Palmer/Cutler, but every QB except Brees & Brady has 1-2 guys behind them that are at least debatable.

I have to say one of the 'Roy Williams vs. Calvin Johnson' posts last year changed my perception a bit on FF. That is, if you draft Williams (who had a higher ADP 12 months ago even though it sounds silly now) ahead of CJ, you're the guy who finishes 3rd place. Obviously Schaub isn't Megatron good in real life, but I feel like if you don't think he's good value in the middle-rounds because he's been hurt a few games, then you're that same guy who picked Roy Williams last year. I mean who else at that ADP has that much upside?

 

[dirtywaters20]

Draft stuff is already leaving my head in favor of lineup stuff, but here are some guys I avoided.

QB - Romo (many guys this year will have more than his ~22 TDs)

RB1 - Matt Forte (not worth a 1st round pick to me)

RB2 - Pierre Thomas (easy to say now, I guess, but I did avoid him)

RB3 - many I don't like here, but Benson and Larry Johnson have horrible scheds (drafted LJ for one team though)

WR1 - Calvin Johnson (awesome talent, not awesome situation)

WR2 - TO (borderline WR2 now, right? nagging injuries all year, a relatively poor season)

WR3 - Devin Hester (expecting negligible development, I'll take my chances elsewhere)

FLEX - Percy Harvin (DO NOT WANT)

TE - Olsen (startable, but not the insta-stud expected as Clark still gets his)

K - I dunno, the guy on drugs. No wait, I like him.

As opposed to last year?

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Last year he wasn't drafted in the 2nd round.

 

[The Jerk]

I don't see why Dallas Clark is being targeted to underproduce due to the possible emergency of Anthony Gonzalez when Gates is given a free pass despite a potential reduction in passing TDs in SD. I own both and I can see either being affected but don't feel one is more likely than the other.

Interesting thread, though.

 

[SSOG]

Last year he wasn't drafted in the 2nd round.

No... but in retrospect, he should have been.Calvin's situation is no worse than it was last year. Last year he demonstrated he was capable of putting up top 5 numbers in that situation... so it's perfectly reasonable to expect him to be capable of repeating those top 5 numbers again, this year.

I don't see why Dallas Clark is being targeted to underproduce due to the possible emergency of Anthony Gonzalez when Gates is given a free pass despite a potential reduction in passing TDs in SD. I own both and I can see either being affected but don't feel one is more likely than the other.Interesting thread, though.

My thinking on Gates: when Gates rose to prominence, the Chargers were Tomlinson's team, and Tomlinson was the best red zone option in the entire NFL. When Gates had 13 TDs in '04, Tomlinson had 18. When Gates had 10 TDs in '05, Tomlinson had 20. When Gates had 9 TDs in '06, Tomlinson had 31 (!!!). When Gates had 9 in '07, Tomlinson had 18 again. The way I see it, San Diego isn't Tomlinson's team anymore- now it's Rivers' team, and Tomlinson only has a year or two of high level production left in him (and no more years of 18+ TDs, imo). I think that SD's pass TD:rush TD ratio will remain high going forward, and I think Gates will continue to be the primary beneficiary of those passing TDs. I also like hearing that Gates is free of all the nagging injuries that dogged him last season, and I think that San Diego's offensive line is better this year so Gates won't have as much in the way of blocking responsibilities. Gates' yardage total last year was more than 220 below his previous career low (not counting his rookie year), and his TDs were also a career low. I expect a nice rebound this year. I'm thinking 900-1000 yards and 10+ scores.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Last year he wasn't drafted in the 2nd round.

No... but in retrospect, he should have been.Calvin's situation is no worse than it was last year. Last year he demonstrated he was capable of putting up top 5 numbers in that situation... so it's perfectly reasonable to expect him to be capable of repeating those top 5 numbers again, this year.

Drafting robotically according to ADP is "perfectly reasonable" but it I don't think it's a winning strategy. I'm not trying to change anyone's mind. Just don't think he's top 5 this season.

 

[awesomeness]

QB - Brett Favre

RB - LT

RB - Ronnie Brown/Cadillac

WR - Devin Hester

WR - Percy Harvin

TE - Visanthe Shiancoe

DEF - Play IDP you rooks.

 

[The Jerk]

Last year he wasn't drafted in the 2nd round.

No... but in retrospect, he should have been.Calvin's situation is no worse than it was last year. Last year he demonstrated he was capable of putting up top 5 numbers in that situation... so it's perfectly reasonable to expect him to be capable of repeating those top 5 numbers again, this year.

I don't see why Dallas Clark is being targeted to underproduce due to the possible emergency of Anthony Gonzalez when Gates is given a free pass despite a potential reduction in passing TDs in SD. I own both and I can see either being affected but don't feel one is more likely than the other.Interesting thread, though.

My thinking on Gates: when Gates rose to prominence, the Chargers were Tomlinson's team, and Tomlinson was the best red zone option in the entire NFL. When Gates had 13 TDs in '04, Tomlinson had 18. When Gates had 10 TDs in '05, Tomlinson had 20. When Gates had 9 TDs in '06, Tomlinson had 31 (!!!). When Gates had 9 in '07, Tomlinson had 18 again. The way I see it, San Diego isn't Tomlinson's team anymore- now it's Rivers' team, and Tomlinson only has a year or two of high level production left in him (and no more years of 18+ TDs, imo). I think that SD's pass TD:rush TD ratio will remain high going forward, and I think Gates will continue to be the primary beneficiary of those passing TDs. I also like hearing that Gates is free of all the nagging injuries that dogged him last season, and I think that San Diego's offensive line is better this year so Gates won't have as much in the way of blocking responsibilities. Gates' yardage total last year was more than 220 below his previous career low (not counting his rookie year), and his TDs were also a career low. I expect a nice rebound this year. I'm thinking 900-1000 yards and 10+ scores.

Thanks, SSOG. I always appreciate your attention to detail. I suppose I'm not sold on SD being Rivers' team or at least not sold on Rivers throwing 34 TD passes again this season. I think SD wins more games, leads more games, etc. so that they don't have as much need to pass. I don't necessarily see LT going back to superstud status but a better defense will not require as prolific an offense and especially not as many passing TDs and yards. Of course, I could be wrong, but I thought I owed you some explanation as to my thinking, even if it is not nearly as analytical as yours in this instance.

 

[SSOG]

Thanks, SSOG. I always appreciate your attention to detail. I suppose I'm not sold on SD being Rivers' team or at least not sold on Rivers throwing 34 TD passes again this season. I think SD wins more games, leads more games, etc. so that they don't have as much need to pass. I don't necessarily see LT going back to superstud status but a better defense will not require as prolific an offense and especially not as many passing TDs and yards. Of course, I could be wrong, but I thought I owed you some explanation as to my thinking, even if it is not nearly as analytical as yours in this instance.

I definitely get where you're coming from. 30 TD seasons are pretty rare. I just don't think Gates needs a 30-TD season from Rivers in order to put up double digit scores. In '07, Gates got 9/22 scores, in '06 it was 9/24, in '05 it was 10/27, in '04 it was 13/29. That's 40.2% of the receiving TDs over those 5 seasons. Last year, he had 8/34 (23.5%). Sure, Vincent Jackson is looking better and will get some of those receiving scores... but Keenan McCardell had 9 receiving scores in '05, so the offense can support a pair of TD targets. If SD regresses in TD passes, I expect those scores to come from Chambers (5 receiving TDs last year), Sproles (5 receiving TDs last year), or Malcolm Floyd (4 receiving scores last year).I'm just a huge, huge fan of Gates' talent. He's possibly the best red-zone target in the league right now (it's either him or Moss). Great size, great strength, great ability to track the ball in flight, huge hands. His TD numbers were down big-time last year (not total TDs, but his %age of total TD numbers), and his yardage numbers were also really down. It was partly due to him being slowed by injury, but mostly due to him being kept in to block. I don't think either is a factor this year, which means I'm sky-high on Antonio. I actually like Gates better than Witten in standard scoring leagues.

 

[r3t2]

I noticed a couple of things about your Darrell Jackson stats. One they're not very impressive to begin with, but you counted one of his better years twice (2003), and omitted his pedestrian rookie year. More importantly, it's interesting how you left out his last two years, which were abysmal, and how you pro-rated his stats as though his history of getting banged up somehow isn't relevant. He never scored more than 10 TDs in a season, and he averaged less than 6 TDs per year over his career. Was he a huge bust? No, but he was hardly a stud.Does Darrell Jackson's career have anything to do with Percy Harvin? No, not really, but the point is valid that Florida WRs rarely live up to their hype in the NFL.

Good catch on listing 2003 twice- that was a typo. Yes, I omitted his rookie year and his last two years, but that's because 98% of WRs suck during their first and last years in the league, so the fact that DJax sucked during his first and last years is pretty irrelevant. I also pro-rated his numbers because the OP's point was that Florida WRs don't succeed, not that Florida WRs are injury prone. Darrell Jackson went through a 6-year stretch where he was a consistent top-15-type fantasy WR. Very, very, very few WRs wind up with more successful primes. From 2001 to 2006, here were the league leaders in terms of ypg receiving:Torry Holt (87.8)Marvin Harrison (86.6)Terrell Owens (84.8)Chad Ochocinco (75.3)Joe Horn (73.0)Randy Moss (72.6)Darrell Jackson (71.7)There is *NO* shame in ranking behind those six. If you want to go by total yards instead of yards per game (to penalize him for his missed time), then DJax also ranks behind Hines Ward, Derrick Mason, Laveranues Coles, Plaxico Burress, Isaac Bruce, and Rod Smith... once again, no shame there. He also ranks *AHEAD* of Keyshawn Johnson, Donald Driver, Reggie Wayne, Eric Moulds, Muhsin Muhammad, Amani Toomer, and Joey Galloway. No matter *HOW* you slice it, Darrell Jackson was an extremely productive player during his prime. Any suggestion that a Florida WR has *NEVER* "panned out" is blatantly and absurdly false.Besides being blatantly false, it's also patently absurd. Am I supposed to believe that whether Percy Harvin succeeds or fails has the slightest bit to do with Ike Hilliard? "Geez, if only Ike Hilliard was a little bit faster, Percy Harvin might have a chance at becoming a legit NFL WR...". Edit: Speaking of Ike Hilliard... if you're still in the league after 12 years, you're doing something right. Hilliard has 6000 career receiving yards. It's not like he's Charles Rodgers, here.

Ike HilliardJacquez GreenReidel AnthonyTravis TaylorReche CaldwellJabar GaffneyAndre CaldwellChad JacksonI think it's safe to say none of these guys catapulted a team to their fantasy league playoffs. Can Harvin buck the trend? Sure, he's not bound by their failures, but history says there's something about Florida WRs that doesn't translate to success in the NFL.People like Hilliard and Darrell Jackson earned their paychecks I guess, but they were hardly superstars.

the notion that the players that went to the same school as you has almost any bearing on your chances at success is idiotic.its a statistical game played where you grab a set that seems to indicate a trend and try to predict the future based on it. like when sportscasters say things like "the redskins have covered 11 of the last 12 times they have played at the rams." but what does a game played in 1978 have to do with 2009? harvin will succeed or fail based mostly on percy harvin's work ethic, intelligence, and natural ability. none of that is in any way related to reche caldwell. btw - are we already writing off andre caldwell? really?! its his SECOND year in the league.

 

[SSOG]

the notion that the players that went to the same school as you has almost any bearing on your chances at success is idiotic.its a statistical game played where you grab a set that seems to indicate a trend and try to predict the future based on it. like when sportscasters say things like "the redskins have covered 11 of the last 12 times they have played at the rams." but what does a game played in 1978 have to do with 2009? harvin will succeed or fail based mostly on percy harvin's work ethic, intelligence, and natural ability. none of that is in any way related to reche caldwell. btw - are we already writing off andre caldwell? really?! its his SECOND year in the league.

Well, to some extent, I believe that the school you went to can have an impact on how likely you are to be successful. I think, for instance, that guys like Reidel Anthony and Ike Hilliard looked better than they truly were because the system they were in was so radical and new, so one could argue that if another Florida WR had been drafted in the first round, it's more likely that they were not really a first round talent and they were being overrated because of the system they were in.Of course, that's not a relevant argument here because the system has changed. And that argument also assumes that scouts and coaches are stupid. It's possible for scouts and coaches to universally overrate the first couple of guys out of a system, but they're generally pretty good at their job, and if the general public has caught on to the fact that they're overrating players from a certain system, you can bet that the coaches and scouts themselves have reached a similar conclusion and are adjusting for it already (meaning if another player from that system goes high, there's a very good chance that he's not being overrated like his predecessors, that he's actually making it on his own merit).Call it the "Alex Smith" effect. It's possible (even likely) that Alex Smith was radically overrated coming out of Utah because of the system he played in... but you can bet that when Tim Tebow comes out, NFL scouts will remember Alex Smith and will have learned their lesson. If Tim Tebow still goes in the first round, it'll be because Tim Tebow deserved it on his own merit, not because scouts are still overrating players from that system.

 

[el-gato-grande]

I heard a lot of this same school nonsense when owners here were making counter arguments on why Larry Johnson would never be a stud. Penn State running backs...blah...blah...blah. I acquired him during his second season fairly cheap in my main keeper league and rode him to two league championships.

 

[Instinctive]

QB: Schaub (just can't stay healthy and requires you to pick a decent backup soon after you draft him)

Post yours next...

Totally disagree with Schaub. Know why he was out last season?He missed games following these three games:

Game A: late hit, helmet to helmet, concussed - opposing player fined

Game B: Jared Allen 2 illegal late hits, one at the knees. - fined after game

Game C: late hit, opposing player fined after game

I tell you what though, Tom Brady must be injury prone too. He got hit in the knee after a pass was released (although it wasn't declared a roughing, as the player wa son the ground...although now it is a penalty) and missed a year! How can you draft him?????

And he doesn't require a decent back up. For the last 2 seasons I have had Schaub, and last year combined with Thiggy and Shaun Hill I had top 4 QB production. Didn't draft a backup then, got those guys when he was injured. This year? Look at JaMarcus Russell...whenever the Texans have a tough matchup, or bye, he has a great matchup.

 

[Manster]

Fitz for where i've seen him go.

P.Thomas got way overhyped

Witten, unless ppr

R.Rice, unless you got him 5/6 round or later

 

[SSOG]

Pretty good weekend for those Florida WRs who are never going to amount to anything. Rookie Percy Harvin led his team with 36 receiving, 22 rushing, 99 on kick returns, and a TD. Second year player Andre Caldwell led the Bengals in targets and receptions, including hauling in 3 passes on the go-ahead TD drive with a minute to go in the 4th. Rookie Luis Murphy had 4/86/1... and many will argue that he was robbed of another 19 yard TD pass. He also happened to be the only Oakland WR to catch a pass all night (seriously).

Just sayin'...