The Asian Century - China will soon be the dominant economic player in the world (1 Viewer)

[GoBirds]

Good luck, electing Biden wasn’t the step to prevent this. Get ready, it’s what you signed up for.

I truly don’t understand how people can form this view. The alternative was Trump, an isolationist TPP killing America First guy who, in four years, did absolutely nothing to expand US influence on a global scale. In fact, he did the opposite.

Love it when the blind followers bump old posts that prove true. The transition away from the Biden debacle starts next month, can’t get here fast enough. Apparently you are trying to hide from it searching posts this old, sorry friend.

 

[jon_mx]

But authoritarianism can get things done democratic societies can't because of human rights, among other things.

There's also an efficiency in decision making if the populace and/or their representatives don't need to be consulted. The central authority will get it wrong a lot, but they'll get it wrong quickly. And sometimes any decision, even a wrong one, is better than no decision.

Finally, their populace doesn't see politics as sport. There are no sides since the vast vast majority have no access to any politician. Therefore, their energy (both entertainment and labor) will be focused elsewhere and likely into more productive avenues.

That is not how productivity works. People are most productive when they have something to gain from it.

 

[The Z Machine]

People are most productive when they have something to gain from it.

The Chinese firms I've worked with are plenty motivated by monetary gain. The workers I've worked with leave positions to find better paying ones.

The Chinese economy is not communist any longer. This isn't the USSR of 1974. There's plenty of central planning that happens still in terms of infrastructure and direct investment from the state but there's a ton of competition and fighting for economic advantage. There's also a ton of competition among the people to show off their wealth, get their kids into good schools, and get ahead.

What I don't see is a lot of cultural knowledge outside of Chinese history / society. To be fair, Chinese history is long and complex, so there's plenty there. But all too often the people don't really have an understanding of the world outside China, or they think it's beneath them.

 

[jon_mx]

People are most productive when they have something to gain from it.

The Chinese firms I've worked with are plenty motivated by monetary gain. The workers I've worked with leave positions to find better paying ones.

The Chinese economy is not communist any longer. This isn't the USSR of 1974. There's plenty of central planning that happens still in terms of infrastructure and direct investment from the state but there's a ton of competition and fighting for economic advantage. There's also a ton of competition among the people to show off their wealth, get their kids into good schools, and get ahead.

What I don't see is a lot of cultural knowledge outside of Chinese history / society. To be fair, Chinese history is long and complex, so there's plenty there. But all too often the people don't really have an understanding of the world outside China, or they think it's beneath them.

No doubt China flurished by moving away from Communism and adopting Capitalistic principles allowing people to become very wealthy. But Xi is taking the country back towards its communist roots and trying to push for equal outcomes. He is slowly destroying their economy. Just watch what happens the next decade.

 

[The Z Machine]

Can you cite some examples of policies related to "equal outcomes"? I think that XJP is hurting their economy more with zero covid policy than with expropriation tactics or any other state centralization of the economy.

Xi is an authoritarian no doubt. But I think he's more interested in power (both personal and projecting China's) than he is about communist dogma.

 

[quick-hands]

Good luck, electing Biden wasn’t the step to prevent this. Get ready, it’s what you signed up for.

I truly don’t understand how people can form this view. The alternative was Trump, an isolationist TPP killing America First guy who, in four years, did absolutely nothing to expand US influence on a global scale. In fact, he did the opposite.

I don't understand how people can still have your view. Biden is walking us into a war. he just moved the 101st airborne to Europe for the first time since ww2. he is torpedoing out energy sector . biden definitely isn't America first.

 

[zoonation]

Good luck, electing Biden wasn’t the step to prevent this. Get ready, it’s what you signed up for.

I truly don’t understand how people can form this view. The alternative was Trump, an isolationist TPP killing America First guy who, in four years, did absolutely nothing to expand US influence on a global scale. In fact, he did the opposite.

Love it when the blind followers bump old posts that prove true. The transition away from the Biden debacle starts next month, can’t get here fast enough. Apparently you are trying to hide from it searching posts this old, sorry friend.

Ah. Didn’t see that it was old. My bad.

 

[whoknew]

I can tell you that the amount of change I've seen in China in the last 15 years has been astonishing. The growth of the middle class there (at least in the big cities and manufacturing centers of the south and east of the country) was shocking to me. There used to be thousands of bicycles riding around those cities. Now they have subways and the professionals all drive new cars.

They have invested in infrastructure where the west has not. They have invested in education and in enterprises both large and small.

They have a strategic advantage in their demographics in that there are a lot of working age people and proportionally not a ton of older, retired folks. That will last for another 20 years before the tide goes out and they won't have the working age population to support the surfe in elderly.

But make no mistake, that's a structural advantage that goes beyond sheer numbers.

Is the age issue a MAJOR coming problem for China? I read in some other areas that it is. That basically the one child policy was really bad for the country and, as a result, they are going to have major issues in the future.

I guess my question is - how bad of a problem is China facing?

ETA: A friend also reminded me that the younger generation also has a huge imbalance in the male to female ratio. Which, obviously, presents a big problem for all those dudes that want to get married and start a family.

 

[roadkill1292]

I can tell you that the amount of change I've seen in China in the last 15 years has been astonishing. The growth of the middle class there (at least in the big cities and manufacturing centers of the south and east of the country) was shocking to me. There used to be thousands of bicycles riding around those cities. Now they have subways and the professionals all drive new cars.

They have invested in infrastructure where the west has not. They have invested in education and in enterprises both large and small.

They have a strategic advantage in their demographics in that there are a lot of working age people and proportionally not a ton of older, retired folks. That will last for another 20 years before the tide goes out and they won't have the working age population to support the surfe in elderly.

But make no mistake, that's a structural advantage that goes beyond sheer numbers.

Is the age issue a MAJOR coming problem for China? I read in some other areas that it is. That basically the one child policy was really bad for the country and, as a result, they are going to have major issues in the future.

I guess my question is - how bad of a problem is China facing?

ETA: A friend also reminded me that the younger generation also has a huge imbalance in the male to female ratio. Which, obviously, presents a big problem for all those dudes that want to get married and start a family.

I've seen predictions that the population could halve by 2100, with enormous economic upheaval during the transition period. The numbers of elderly requiring assistance in the next two decades dwarfs anything anyone else will have to deal with.

We sometimes assume that the structure of their government gives them the power to simply dictate these problems away but history teaches us that managing human beans is complicated.

 

[The Z Machine]

I can tell you that the amount of change I've seen in China in the last 15 years has been astonishing. The growth of the middle class there (at least in the big cities and manufacturing centers of the south and east of the country) was shocking to me. There used to be thousands of bicycles riding around those cities. Now they have subways and the professionals all drive new cars.

They have invested in infrastructure where the west has not. They have invested in education and in enterprises both large and small.

They have a strategic advantage in their demographics in that there are a lot of working age people and proportionally not a ton of older, retired folks. That will last for another 20 years before the tide goes out and they won't have the working age population to support the surfe in elderly.

But make no mistake, that's a structural advantage that goes beyond sheer numbers.

Is the age issue a MAJOR coming problem for China? I read in some other areas that it is. That basically the one child policy was really bad for the country and, as a result, they are going to have major issues in the future.

I guess my question is - how bad of a problem is China facing?

ETA: A friend also reminded me that the younger generation also has a huge imbalance in the male to female ratio. Which, obviously, presents a big problem for all those dudes that want to get married and start a family.

I've seen predictions that the population could halve by 2100, with enormous economic upheaval during the transition period. The numbers of elderly requiring assistance in the next two decades dwarfs anything anyone else will have to deal with.

We sometimes assume that the structure of their government gives them the power to simply dictate these problems away but history teaches us that managing human beans is complicated.

To be fair, China could adopt some really gross policies to deal with that...

 

[higgins]

I'm gonna throw out the possibility that China is not only NOT going to be the major player in the near/far-future, but may actually implode before it gets to be a near-time player (next decade).

(1) I really respect Thomas PM Barnett's way of conveying complex things in a simple manner. His decade-old piece in Esquire reflects this.
(2) More current: I am not as familiar with Peter Zeihan (you're welcome to share your thoughts on him) but he's been growing on me over the past 6-months.

I thought it'd be good for discussion....

 

[djmich]

I can tell you that the amount of change I've seen in China in the last 15 years has been astonishing. The growth of the middle class there (at least in the big cities and manufacturing centers of the south and east of the country) was shocking to me. There used to be thousands of bicycles riding around those cities. Now they have subways and the professionals all drive new cars.

They have invested in infrastructure where the west has not. They have invested in education and in enterprises both large and small.

They have a strategic advantage in their demographics in that there are a lot of working age people and proportionally not a ton of older, retired folks. That will last for another 20 years before the tide goes out and they won't have the working age population to support the surfe in elderly.

But make no mistake, that's a structural advantage that goes beyond sheer numbers.

Is the age issue a MAJOR coming problem for China? I read in some other areas that it is. That basically the one child policy was really bad for the country and, as a result, they are going to have major issues in the future.

This is a bit of the global conundrum (albeit for different reasons than Chinas one child policy).

Growth is require to sustain the viability of global economies. Yet at the same time population growth is a primary contributing factor to global warming g and environmental destruction.

But it’s not really a conundrum because nobody considers population control a reasonable consideration.

 

[The Z Machine]

More current: I am not as familiar with Peter Zeihan (you're welcome to share your thoughts on him) but he's been growing on me over the past 6-months.

I watched the video. I think he's right on some things, but I think he's underselling the ability of China to adapt to the restrictions on the powerful chips that have recently come about. I think they'll develop their own home-grown chips in due time. They've done so with telecom and other items. I would suspect that corporate espionage will be part of that play to extract knowledge from western companies that are limited in their ability to do tech transfer.

I think he's also underselling the ability of the Chinese market to sustain itself via internal consumption. As the middle class grows (and will continue to grow, even as it ages), more production will be consumed internally. Finally, there will still be large markets outside of the west that the Chinese will try and continue to access via lower cost of goods and services. If you're in a low income country and a Finnish telecom company offers you 6G cell service at $XXXB but the Chinese offer a mostly equivalent 5.5G cell service at 50% of the price, who will you choose? Same thing will happen at the consumer level. There are significant cost advantages that the Chinese have right now in their supply chains.

I think he's overselling the ability of the west to go it without China and their supply chains. Yes, China imports a lot of raw materials, but the rest of the world doesn't have the ability to process those raw materials, nor turn those intermediate goods into finished products. It's a global world and I don't think either the west or China want to kill it just yet. Russia does though...