The Big 12...2008 WR Tier 1 (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

I think the WR are actually fairly easy to figure out. It’s really a matter of comfort level, where you are slotted in redrafts, and how many real studs you think you will need from your WR trio that you typically start in most leagues. Some people think it is much easier to wait on WR until rounds 4/5 and start drafting them for the next 3-4 rounds, others want to try and secure 2 from the Big 12…that’s what I’m calling the top12 WR, more to follow.

My personal belief in drafting WR is to try and go with some proven commodity over the sizzle of a WR going into their 2nd, 3rd, or 4th year but has yet to prove a whole lot. As I look at the field this year, I do see some guys in the next tier after the Big 12 that could challenge and find their way into that top tier but nothing is for sure and actually you have to use a leap of faith for some of them which I think is a gross misstep for some of the FF owners out there.

I usually lead out with the RB thread but this year it seems I have a much clearer look at the WR position. We have a nice group at the top of guys in their 30s, some in their primes, and some that are still fairly young like Fitzgerald and Colston. I see no reason to make a wild prediction, or to tear apart the top tier all that much. There are some differences which I will highlight but a lot of the top tier is simply pick up a weapon and keep moving. Let’s jump into this.

The “Big 12”

I think this is a great name for the top tier of WR…we could split it up even more but there are some fundamental traits that almost all of these WR share. 1st of all, most of them have had 100+ catch season on the resume, or a double digit TD season, perhaps multiple for many, and they have been at the top or near the top during their careers as well…so they have a track record. I will use David Dodd’s projection rankings, these are not necessarily my own, although by and large they are pretty strong.

1. Randy Moss: (1.09) Last year he posts 98/1,493/23 TD…one of the best ever in FF or the NFL for that matter. Will he repeat his numbers? Probably not but would it really surprise owners if this guy had another 90 catches, close to 1,500 yds again, and about 15-20 TD, even if he isn’t breaking the single season record again? You take Moss if you have the chance, probably after the 1st 4-5 RB are off the board, moss is in play as a safe pick. But there is not need to reach as one can do a lot of damage with some of the others.

2. Reggie Wayne: (2.05) Over the last 4 years his receptions have climbed steadily. His ypc hovers around 14.5-15.5 despite some rather average speed. He has posted double digit TD in 2of the last 4 years and came within 1 TD of doing it 3 out of 4. He is super consistent, and like Randy moss has one of the best QBs in the game throwing him the ball. I don’t know that I see him as the#1 WR in FF but he has been top5 the past 2 seasons and he is the #1 option on a very high octane offense…a pretty safe pick that just can’t be worse than about 80/1200/8 and that would be the floor assuming he is healthy. You might not win with just picking Reggie Wayne but you won’t lose either.

3. Terrell Owens: (2.03) 83-1250-14 TD…that is what Owens has avg since arriving in Dallas. Forget about his long term prospects in Dyansty…this guy will win you a championship. He can score form anywhere, some could argue that Dallas might even be better on offense this season. Owens is #2 on my list right behind Mr Moss.

4. Larry Fitzgerald: (2.08) 100-1,400-10 TD is what he posted in ’05 and ’07…is he one of those every other year types? I doubt it but I do have some reservations about the guy and Arizona in general. I want Leinart to be the guy but he hasn’t shown a lot when he has been on the field. How fast they would yank Leinart for Warner is anyone’s guess but I would like to see some consistency form his QB position. I don’t have a real good reason but Fitz has not made it on to my teams so far since he has been in the league. I always end up going with Wayne or Owens, or someone along those lines. Guy has finished 2 and 5th in the past 3 years and never finished worse than 30th his rookie year…guy is a stud.

5. Andre Johnson: (2.10) The guy had 100+ catches with David Carr zipping it to him 2 years ago. Last season AJ had 60/850/8 TD in basically 8-9 games…this is why so many people are high on him. If Schaub can stay on the field and they can connect like they did at the beginning of the season…lookout. Johnson has the skills to be top2 if he plays all season. There is a lot of risk here…OK maybe a lot is actually too much…but he isn’t quite as safe as some others right around here. Even is he plays 12 games, those 12 games he will be a top10 WR almost every week.

6. Chad Johnson: (3.06) Avg 90-1,400-8 TD the past 5 years, ranked 3,9,4,4,and 6th last year. Why no love? Forget his attitude, contract, all that jazz, none of it means anything to FF owners, it doesn’t. His biggest problems for owners is that he will score 30 one week and then he doesn’t do much the next few weeks. He scored 30+ against Cleveland in week 2 last year, had a couple games where he scored over 10 points in non PPR leagues but not until week 12 where he has 103 yds and 3 TD does he do a whole lot during the season. I would rather have the guy that scores 15 points a week 5 weeks in a row than the guy that scores 40 and then puts up 6 the next 4 weeks…those weeks could kill me. Chad is not #6 on my list, he would be more towards the back of the Big 12.

7. Braylon Edwards: (2.06) Tore it up last year with 80-1289-16 TD…OK so he won’t duplicate his TD total again but I bet he could easily hit the reception and yardage totals again. This guy has gotten better and better since his rookie year and I think he will remain in the top10-15 of WR for years to come. A definite stud and dynasty bonanza for owners. If you can live with his numbers but replace the 16 TD with 8-10, than I think you will be fine.

8. TJ Houshmandzadeh: (3.02) Career year with 112-1,143-12 TD…Wes Welker turned up a notch here. The Bengals are going to be allowing a lot of points again, their running game is a mystery right now, the one thing they can do is line up and throw the football. Palmer needs some time but they can create a lot of points for FF owners. I actually don’t think TJ’s all that talented and his ypc sort of leads some credence to my theory but you just cannot deny production. And to think you can have this guy on the turn and possibly be your WR2??? He will again be teamed with LT/ADP to form a pretty nasty 2 some, 3 some depending on the other WR you pair with him.

9. Steve Smith: (2.12) Had another down year last year but still had 87-1000-7 TD…I love this guy to rebound this year. Delhomme is back, but if he were to go down, Matt Moore doesn’t look as bad this year as an option. Mush and Hackett were brought in to take some of the pressure off. Stewart joins DeAngelo to make for an exciting dup at RB, OL has been upgraded…what’s not to like? I have him ranked higher than #9. To be able to get him on the turn in the 2/3…WOW!!!

10. Torry Holt: (3.09) He is absolutely overlooked. He finished 35th as a rookie and since then he has rankings of 7th, 8th, 15th, 2nd, 7th, 6th, 6th, and 13th last season as he logged 93 catches 1,189 and 7 TD. He has seen his avg slip to about 12.8-13.0 ypc over the last 3 years. Is he on the decline? Sure but he is safe to finish in the top15 for sure.

11. Marques Colston: (3.01) Went form 14th as a rookie to 8th last season. Went form 70 catches as a rookie to 98 last year…this guy is only going to get better. Plays on a high octane offense, is the WR1, nothing to not like about this guy. I have him ranked much higher than #11.

Can you imagine starting off with some combo of LT/ADP at RB, then on the turn in rounds 2/3 you get to choose between Steve Smith, Marques Colston, and TJ Housh…pick 2 please. Unfair!!!

12. Plaxico Burress: (3.10) Was on pace with Randy Moss last season for the 1st 5 or 6 weeks. He has posted back to back double digit TD seasons. That is extremely hard to achieve but it also means he is the red zone target and Eli has no problem delivering him the ball in those situations.

If I were to list my Big 12 from this list it would look something like this…

1. R.Moss

2. T.Owens

3. R.Wayne

4. S.Smith

5. M.Colston

6. B.Edwards

7. L.Fitzgerald

8. A.Johnson

9. TJ Housh

10. Chad Johnson

11. Plax Burress

12. Torry Holt

This might not seem like much of a difference. And I guess to some it’s not but I definitely am starting to gravitate towards some of these WR over other ones in the same group.

So who do you like based on ADP, where you can get them…does this cast a spotlight on the draft spots…are some of them looking worse and worse?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Obviously the next thread will be the WR13-24 tier or about that...of most of those WR, I could pass on just about all fo them except for 1-2, so maybe if you can grab 2 WR in the Big 12, then you can focus back to the RB, top tier QB, and top tier TE as well. I would think if you devote rounds 2 and 3 to WR, likely you can skip that position toill about round 6 or 7...the problem I see there however is this season in round 7-10 there is some real value at RB.

 

[TheWick]

Is this based on basic scoring? In ppr you have to have several options ahead of Plax.

 

[FUBAR]

Is this based on basic scoring? In ppr you have to have several options ahead of Plax.

When I clicked on the thread, I asked myself who the top 12 would be, the first 11 were fairly clear and obvious. Plax probably deserves to be #12, but there's an apparent drop off IMO from 11 to 12-20ish. I might drop Housh down to #11 and see a drop off ther as well, so maybe it should be the Big X + 2?

 

[rzrback77]

1. Randy Moss: (1.09) Last year he posts 98/1,493/23 TD…one of the best ever in FF or the NFL for that matter. Will he repeat his numbers? Probably not but would it really surprise owners if this guy had another 90 catches, close to 1,500 yds again, and about 15-20 TD, even if he isn’t breaking the single season record again? You take Moss if you have the chance, probably after the 1st 4-5 RB are off the board, moss is in play as a safe pick. But there is not need to reach as one can do a lot of damage with some of the others.

I'm confused as to what you are saying here in the bolded area above. You take him 5th or 6th even though his ADP is nine. But you don't need to reach? You also say that he is probably good for 90 catches 1500 yards and 17 TDs, which is probably going to be WR 1 most years and others offer similar value?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

1. Randy Moss: (1.09) Last year he posts 98/1,493/23 TD…one of the best ever in FF or the NFL for that matter. Will he repeat his numbers? Probably not but would it really surprise owners if this guy had another 90 catches, close to 1,500 yds again, and about 15-20 TD, even if he isn’t breaking the single season record again? You take Moss if you have the chance, probably after the 1st 4-5 RB are off the board, moss is in play as a safe pick. But there is not need to reach as one can do a lot of damage with some of the others.

I'm confused as to what you are saying here in the bolded area above. You take him 5th or 6th even though his ADP is nine. But you don't need to reach? You also say that he is probably good for 90 catches 1500 yards and 17 TDs, which is probably going to be WR 1 most years and others offer similar value?

Good question rzrback,I am very much into safety whenever posible with my early picks. I'll take top 2 pair over a flush draw sort of speak anyday. I like Moss and even though he will come off of his career numbers in the TD dept, I still think he will be at or near the top again this season. Are you implying Moss get his own tier? He clearly has re-established himself as the #1 WR in FF. I just am saying that someone can still do a lot of damage with several of the other picks...and those that take Moss in the 1st will likely be taking RB in the 2nd and maybe even 3rd round so they might not have the 1-2 punch of a Smith/Colston combo for example.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Is this based on basic scoring? In ppr you have to have several options ahead of Plax.

When I clicked on the thread, I asked myself who the top 12 would be, the first 11 were fairly clear and obvious. Plax probably deserves to be #12, but there's an apparent drop off IMO from 11 to 12-20ish. I might drop Housh down to #11 and see a drop off ther as well, so maybe it should be the Big X + 2?

FBG/Dodds has Boldin, Holmes, Cal Johnson, Marshall, Welker, Bowe, Roy, Roddy, Jennings, Curtis, Galloway, Crotchery as the next 12 WR...they all have some serious questions but I think we all are most comfortable with Welker...I would next be OK with a Galloway as my WR2/3...but I dont see anyone better than Plax at the moment.

 

[Marc Levin]

I love Steve Smith.

That is all . . .

 

[FUBAR]

Is this based on basic scoring? In ppr you have to have several options ahead of Plax.

When I clicked on the thread, I asked myself who the top 12 would be, the first 11 were fairly clear and obvious. Plax probably deserves to be #12, but there's an apparent drop off IMO from 11 to 12-20ish. I might drop Housh down to #11 and see a drop off ther as well, so maybe it should be the Big X + 2?

FBG/Dodds has Boldin, Holmes, Cal Johnson, Marshall, Welker, Bowe, Roy, Roddy, Jennings, Curtis, Galloway, Crotchery as the next 12 WR...they all have some serious questions but I think we all are most comfortable with Welker...I would next be OK with a Galloway as my WR2/3...but I dont see anyone better than Plax at the moment.

Probably not, but if I'm in position to, I'll take a RB or even Romo over Plax (not sure on ADP, so maybe that's unrealistic?) or even a RB like Turner, and one or two of the WRs in the next couple rounds. I've done a couple drafts already and haven't taken Plax in any - even though I can concede that he should be the #12 WR.

 

[Marc Levin]

Is this based on basic scoring? In ppr you have to have several options ahead of Plax.

When I clicked on the thread, I asked myself who the top 12 would be, the first 11 were fairly clear and obvious. Plax probably deserves to be #12, but there's an apparent drop off IMO from 11 to 12-20ish. I might drop Housh down to #11 and see a drop off ther as well, so maybe it should be the Big X + 2?

FBG/Dodds has Boldin, Holmes, Cal Johnson, Marshall, Welker, Bowe, Roy, Roddy, Jennings, Curtis, Galloway, Crotchery as the next 12 WR...they all have some serious questions but I think we all are most comfortable with Welker...I would next be OK with a Galloway as my WR2/3...but I dont see anyone better than Plax at the moment.

Probably not, but if I'm in position to, I'll take a RB or even Romo over Plax (not sure on ADP, so maybe that's unrealistic?) or even a RB like Turner, and one or two of the WRs in the next couple rounds. I've done a couple drafts already and haven't taken Plax in any - even though I can concede that he should be the #12 WR.

I'll always take the WR12 over the QB3, especially at the top of the 4th round, which is about Plex' ADP. The RB options can be pretty good at that level, though, so RB over Plex is a nice move if someone decent is there.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Is this based on basic scoring? In ppr you have to have several options ahead of Plax.

When I clicked on the thread, I asked myself who the top 12 would be, the first 11 were fairly clear and obvious. Plax probably deserves to be #12, but there's an apparent drop off IMO from 11 to 12-20ish. I might drop Housh down to #11 and see a drop off ther as well, so maybe it should be the Big X + 2?

FBG/Dodds has Boldin, Holmes, Cal Johnson, Marshall, Welker, Bowe, Roy, Roddy, Jennings, Curtis, Galloway, Crotchery as the next 12 WR...they all have some serious questions but I think we all are most comfortable with Welker...I would next be OK with a Galloway as my WR2/3...but I dont see anyone better than Plax at the moment.

Probably not, but if I'm in position to, I'll take a RB or even Romo over Plax (not sure on ADP, so maybe that's unrealistic?) or even a RB like Turner, and one or two of the WRs in the next couple rounds. I've done a couple drafts already and haven't taken Plax in any - even though I can concede that he should be the #12 WR.

What if you grabbed Moss in the 1st, Steve Smith or Colston in the 2nd, then in the middle of the 3rd you have a chance to take a Plax to be your WR3??? I would at least think about waiting till round 4 at that point and then try and find some value at RB in the meaty middle rounds.

 

[Marc Levin]

Is this based on basic scoring? In ppr you have to have several options ahead of Plax.

When I clicked on the thread, I asked myself who the top 12 would be, the first 11 were fairly clear and obvious. Plax probably deserves to be #12, but there's an apparent drop off IMO from 11 to 12-20ish. I might drop Housh down to #11 and see a drop off ther as well, so maybe it should be the Big X + 2?

FBG/Dodds has Boldin, Holmes, Cal Johnson, Marshall, Welker, Bowe, Roy, Roddy, Jennings, Curtis, Galloway, Crotchery as the next 12 WR...they all have some serious questions but I think we all are most comfortable with Welker...I would next be OK with a Galloway as my WR2/3...but I dont see anyone better than Plax at the moment.

Probably not, but if I'm in position to, I'll take a RB or even Romo over Plax (not sure on ADP, so maybe that's unrealistic?) or even a RB like Turner, and one or two of the WRs in the next couple rounds. I've done a couple drafts already and haven't taken Plax in any - even though I can concede that he should be the #12 WR.

What if you grabbed Moss in the 1st, Steve Smith or Colston in the 2nd, then in the middle of the 3rd you have a chance to take a Plax to be your WR3??? I would at least think about waiting till round 4 at that point and then try and find some value at RB in the meaty middle rounds.

That would never happen - but if i opened WR-WR, I go loads and loads of RBs the next 5 rounds hoping to find two that hit big.Regardless, I do not go WR-WR-QB under any format this side of start-2 QBs

 

[kremenull]

With a 6 slot disparity in ADP, Moss is in his own Tier......."Uni-Stud Tier" would be a good name......

There's Moss, then the next 11......

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

With a 6 slot disparity in ADP, Moss is in his own Tier......."Uni-Stud Tier" would be a good name......There's Moss, then the next 11......

Agreed here. We've got no reason to believe that NE will be less formidable on O this year and a few tight games might get Moss back in the 2007 TD range (17 TD in the first half, only 6 in the 2nd half).

 

[FUBAR]

Is this based on basic scoring? In ppr you have to have several options ahead of Plax.

When I clicked on the thread, I asked myself who the top 12 would be, the first 11 were fairly clear and obvious. Plax probably deserves to be #12, but there's an apparent drop off IMO from 11 to 12-20ish. I might drop Housh down to #11 and see a drop off ther as well, so maybe it should be the Big X + 2?

FBG/Dodds has Boldin, Holmes, Cal Johnson, Marshall, Welker, Bowe, Roy, Roddy, Jennings, Curtis, Galloway, Crotchery as the next 12 WR...they all have some serious questions but I think we all are most comfortable with Welker...I would next be OK with a Galloway as my WR2/3...but I dont see anyone better than Plax at the moment.

Probably not, but if I'm in position to, I'll take a RB or even Romo over Plax (not sure on ADP, so maybe that's unrealistic?) or even a RB like Turner, and one or two of the WRs in the next couple rounds. I've done a couple drafts already and haven't taken Plax in any - even though I can concede that he should be the #12 WR.

What if you grabbed Moss in the 1st, Steve Smith or Colston in the 2nd, then in the middle of the 3rd you have a chance to take a Plax to be your WR3??? I would at least think about waiting till round 4 at that point and then try and find some value at RB in the meaty middle rounds.

That would never happen

- but if i opened WR-WR, I go loads and loads of RBs the next 5 rounds hoping to find two that hit big.Regardless, I do not go WR-WR-QB under any format this side of start-2 QBs

I'm really not sure why I'd go WR-WR, but hypothetically, I sure wouldn't be looking to add a 3rd WR at that point. Maybe if I've gone Portis-Brady with my first 2 picks in a 1 RB required league I can see it, or in a league with only 4 pts per TD which would make me drop Romo some.

Irregardlessly, I have no problem with your ranking, my comment was simply that I can see Plax as relatively equal to many WRs ranked 13+. Boldin, Welker, and Holmes at least, I also like Bowe, Roddy and Roy enough but they do have questions.

 

[((Morpheus))]

Would you guys take Moss before the 2nd tier of RBs (Barber, Gore, Portis, LJ, Lynch)?

 

[JaxBill]

I have no real problems with the rankings but I just wonder why your first tier has to have 12 receivers. If there's a dropoff after say the first 6 receivers, shouldn't that be the first tier? I guess I just don't see the need to identify the top receivers as one per each FF team.

 

[Franknbeans]

I have no real problems with the rankings but I just wonder why your first tier has to have 12 receivers. If there's a dropoff after say the first 6 receivers, shouldn't that be the first tier? I guess I just don't see the need to identify the top receivers as one per each FF team.

I have 3 receivers in the 1st tierMoss, Owens and Wayne

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Would you guys take Moss before the 2nd tier of RBs (Barber, Gore, Portis, LJ, Lynch)?

It's definitely an acceptable move this year.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I have no real problems with the rankings but I just wonder why your first tier has to have 12 receivers. If there's a dropoff after say the first 6 receivers, shouldn't that be the first tier? I guess I just don't see the need to identify the top receivers as one per each FF team.

I can see your point but these 12 WR clearly have the best track record right now. And I agree with a lot of Dodd's projections. I think these 12 WR will all go in the 2nd and 3rd round with the exception of Randy Moss who will likely go about the 6th-9th pick into the draft. All of these WR have the capability to change games...they have the ability to explode or they play very consistently at a high level for most of the season. I see #13 on down as guys that will have a lot of questions. Plax is borderline but he has a lot working for him including an offense that has coem together nicely, an OL that can pass block as well as run block, a QB that is firmly entrenched as the starter, a decent crew at WR2, WR3, WR4, and TE...I see him in a good situation and he will likely repeat his numbers from what he has avg his last 3 seasons in New York.It's a matter of who do different owners want. If you want Reggie Wayne and Steve Smith, you might have to wheel and deal to get into the right position to draft them both. I think the idea of Steve Smith and Colston who I have in my top 5...if there is anyway I can maneuver into that spot on the 2/3 turn. i wouldn't target moving up to #1, I would target trying to get the #24 and #25 pick if you can instead.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I have no real problems with the rankings but I just wonder why your first tier has to have 12 receivers. If there's a dropoff after say the first 6 receivers, shouldn't that be the first tier? I guess I just don't see the need to identify the top receivers as one per each FF team.

I have 3 receivers in the 1st tierMoss, Owens and Wayne

Hey FB,How do you justify putting Wayne into that group? Owens is avg 80-1,350-14 TD...I don't think Wayne is hitting those TD marks yet, and Randy moss is coming off a 1,500 yd 23 TD performance, not sure I see Wayne doing that either. I think its better to have a larger group and make an action plan to secure at least 1 if not 2 of these top 12.

 

[Franknbeans]

I have no real problems with the rankings but I just wonder why your first tier has to have 12 receivers. If there's a dropoff after say the first 6 receivers, shouldn't that be the first tier? I guess I just don't see the need to identify the top receivers as one per each FF team.

I have 3 receivers in the 1st tierMoss, Owens and Wayne

Hey FB,How do you justify putting Wayne into that group? Owens is avg 80-1,350-14 TD...I don't think Wayne is hitting those TD marks yet, and Randy moss is coming off a 1,500 yd 23 TD performance, not sure I see Wayne doing that either. I think its better to have a larger group and make an action plan to secure at least 1 if not 2 of these top 12.

Not yet but I think the writing is on the wall in Indy. Harrison is no longer the stud to have there and it is only a matter of time before Wayne starts getting those extra TD's. I think in a PPR format, he's the safest bet out of the other guys listed. I really don't think there is a huge drop off from Tier 1 to Tier 2 but as for who I'd rather draft out the bunch of 12 after TO and Moss, I lean Reggie's way.

 

[Cobalt Cruisin']

picked from turn and happy with the way my team turned out.

RMoss was gone at this pt.

6 pts all TDs

no ppr

start 2RB 3WR no flex

1.12 McGahee, Willis BAL RB

2.01 Owens, Terrell DAL WR

3.12 Parker, Willie PIT RB

4.01 Burress, Plaxico NYG WR

5.12 Ward, Hines PIT WR

6.01 Johnson, Rudi CIN RB

TO

Plax

Ward

McGahee

Parker

Rudi J

not a rate my team. simply showing what you can get from the turn in a redraft.

 

[FUBAR]

picked from turn and happy with the way my team turned out.RMoss was gone at this pt.6 pts all TDsno pprstart 2RB 3WR no flex1.12 McGahee, Willis BAL RB 2.01 Owens, Terrell DAL WR 3.12 Parker, Willie PIT RB 4.01 Burress, Plaxico NYG WR5.12 Ward, Hines PIT WR 6.01 Johnson, Rudi CIN RB TO PlaxWardMcGaheeParkerRudi Jnot a rate my team. simply showing what you can get from the turn in a redraft.

curious, was it your plan to go RB/WR at every turn?

 

[Cobalt Cruisin']

curious, was it your plan to go RB/WR at every turn?

Given the starting requirements, I was taking a Rb and a Wr at the 1st turn. The 2nd turn that was also the plan. But if some value dropped to me at either position, I could've went wr/wr or rb/rb at the 2nd turn. I wasn't locking myself into a set strategy after the 1st 2 picks. I felt that I could find a rb or a wr at the 5/6 turn to fill my needs.

 

[travdogg]

10. Torry Holt: (3.09) He is absolutely overlooked. He finished 35th as a rookie and since then he has rankings of 7th, 8th, 15th, 2nd, 7th, 6th, 6th, and 13th last season as he logged 93 catches 1,189 and 7 TD. He has seen his avg slip to about 12.8-13.0 ypc over the last 3 years. Is he on the decline? Sure but he is safe to finish in the top15 for sure.

I think Holt is the best value here. He put up essentially 1,200-7 despite being in arguably a worse situation than any big-time WR in the league last year(Steve Smith included.)The yardage and catches seem like locks and may increase with Bruce gone(unless McMichael breaks out or Avery is a fast learner) and the TD's will go up just from having a running threat and a competent QB. Why can't Holt have 100 catches 1,300 yards and 10 TD's? This guy is going in the 4th round in most drafts as a WR2.

People want to say he's on the decline but really how many guys would have been better in that situation last year?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

10. Torry Holt: (3.09) He is absolutely overlooked. He finished 35th as a rookie and since then he has rankings of 7th, 8th, 15th, 2nd, 7th, 6th, 6th, and 13th last season as he logged 93 catches 1,189 and 7 TD. He has seen his avg slip to about 12.8-13.0 ypc over the last 3 years. Is he on the decline? Sure but he is safe to finish in the top15 for sure.

I think Holt is the best value here. He put up essentially 1,200-7 despite being in arguably a worse situation than any big-time WR in the league last year(Steve Smith included.)The yardage and catches seem like locks and may increase with Bruce gone(unless McMichael breaks out or Avery is a fast learner) and the TD's will go up just from having a running threat and a competent QB. Why can't Holt have 100 catches 1,300 yards and 10 TD's? This guy is going in the 4th round in most drafts as a WR2.

People want to say he's on the decline but really how many guys would have been better in that situation last year?

All excellent points, again the plan for most owners IMO should be to try and secure 2 out of this Big 12...if you do that, it is going to open the board up to a lot of options and allow for a lot of flexibility later in the draft. Again I see a lot of value at RB in the 6th-10th rounds...also you can grab some great combos at QB and TE...there will be some value at WR, but I see a lot more at the other skill positions.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

picked from turn and happy with the way my team turned out.RMoss was gone at this pt.6 pts all TDsno pprstart 2RB 3WR no flex1.12 McGahee, Willis BAL RB 2.01 Owens, Terrell DAL WR 3.12 Parker, Willie PIT RB 4.01 Burress, Plaxico NYG WR5.12 Ward, Hines PIT WR 6.01 Johnson, Rudi CIN RB TO PlaxWardMcGaheeParkerRudi Jnot a rate my team. simply showing what you can get from the turn in a redraft.

I can't help but toss out my .02Why take 2 players form the same team early in the draft that might not even be the main RB or WR by mid season...when you took Ward, was Holmes already gone? Obviously you see a lot of value in these picks but I am not so high on them.Love McGahee and Owens to start. FWP and Plax...Plax is good, FWP not high on. Rudi and Ward...do not see the upside...Was Donald Driver around when you took Ward? I like Galloway better too. I appreciate you sharing who you took, it helps for those that have later picks. And for a lot of owners in here, that is where it will be because I play in leagues where if you win, next season you are picking 12th. One day I'll get to pick 12th...

 

[David Yudkin]

The scoring differential in the projections between the #5 and #12 WR is equal to the difference from the #13 to #15 RB. I generally am not at all concerned who I get at WR if I don't get one the the very early elite guys.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Braylon Edwards is proven yet Anquan Boldin is not? Interesting.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

The scoring differential in the projections between the #5 and #12 WR is equal to the difference from the #13 to #15 RB. I generally am not at all concerned who I get at WR if I don't get one the the very early elite guys.

I think you are likely right David, but there is certainly a difference in the way CHad Johnson scores his 200 and the way someone like Colston or Edwards might score theirs...I just like a WR that every week puts up 10-20 over someone that scores 40 and then disappears for 5 weeks. The Big 12 will likly not finish the way they are being projected but I feel like there is at least 5-6 in here that are almost locks to put up very strong numbers. I think if you examine all these WR you will find a couple that you are going to like better than others.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Braylon Edwards is proven yet Anquan Boldin is not? Interesting.

Where do you get that from? Interesting...Seriously, Edwards has done better each season and last year he proved it by putting up 16 TD in a fairly high octane offense that has a great OL blocking to protect the QB, he is clearly the WR1...I'm not even sure I understand the basis of the comment. How many WR ever put up 16 TD? How many of them just vanished after doing it? I don't have the answers but guys that put up 16 TD generally do not just fall off the map. Boldin has 2 One hundred catch seasons but the last two years he has gone from 102 down to 83 down to 71...granted he was injured. I'll talk more about him in the 2nd tier. If you like Boldin a lot, i'm sure you will be able to roster him in your redraft.We could find a lot of WR that have proven themselves over time like Donald Driver, Joey Galloway, Wes Welker now...and those will likely be the guys I highlight as safe or must have picks when we get to their tiers

 

[David Yudkin]

The scoring differential in the projections between the #5 and #12 WR is equal to the difference from the #13 to #15 RB. I generally am not at all concerned who I get at WR if I don't get one the the very early elite guys.

I think you are likely right David, but there is certainly a difference in the way CHad Johnson scores his 200 and the way someone like Colston or Edwards might score theirs...I just like a WR that every week puts up 10-20 over someone that scores 40 and then disappears for 5 weeks. The Big 12 will likly not finish the way they are being projected but I feel like there is at least 5-6 in here that are almost locks to put up very strong numbers. I think if you examine all these WR you will find a couple that you are going to like better than others.

I left out the more important part of WR strategy (at least in my case). I generally am pretty good at finding the guys that will approach the fantasy WR1 numbers that you are citing here . . . except I draft them 5-10 rounds later than the guys on your list. So while it might be nice to pick and chose and get the "tight guy" from your list, I don't worry too much if I don't get the one I one (or some years if I get any of them).I took a quick look at the WRs that rounded out my squads last year to see if I was prematurely patting myself on the back, but I think I did a decent job as Welker, Jennings, Bowe, Curtis, Walter, Crayton, and Holmes were all on at least two of them.IMO, each owner needs to know what he/she can do best and run with that. If you are good at waiting on TEs and still get good TE production, more power to you. I generaly have not had much success doing that, so I would be more inclined to take a TE early and hit on a WR late than vice versa.I have had teams with awesome WRs drafted early. I think one year I took Harrison and Owens at the turn and SSmith at the next turn (PPR league), eniding up with 3 Top 5 receivers. I still struggled because my RBs didn't pan out, my QBs never did much, and other than WR my scoring was terrible. To be clear, I am not married to any one strategy, but as I said earlier, if I can't get one of the elite WR I usually choose to wait.

 

[David Yudkin]

How many WR ever put up 16 TD? How many of them just vanished after doing it?

Most of them didn't . . . but several of them did.Jerry Rice 22 1987, 9 1988Sterling Sharpe 18 1994, Retired 1989Mark Clayton 18 1984, 4 1985 Don Hutson 17 1942, 11 1943Elroy Hirsch 17 1951, 4 1952Bill Groman 17 1961, 3 1962Jerry Rice 17 1989, 13 1990Carl Pickens 17 1995, 12 1996Cris Carter 17 1995, 10 1996Randy Moss 17 1998, 11 1999 Randy Moss 17 2003, 13 2004 Art Powell 16 1963, 11 1964 Terrell Owens 16 2001, 13 2002 Muhsin Muhammad 16 2004, 4 2005

 

[Ned]

I love Steve Smith.That is all . . .

absolute steal this year.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Would you guys take Moss before the 2nd tier of RBs (Barber, Gore, Portis, LJ, Lynch)?

It's definitely an acceptable move this year.

here is where I am going to have to disagree. IMO the top rb's go like this:LTADPSjaxwestyaddaibarbergoreportisIMO these 8 all have to be gone before I consider R.Moss. The drop off to LJ and Lynch after these 8 warrant considering R.Moss over them. In PPR heavy performance league I might even consider reggie bush. To me grabbing Portis or barber over Rmoss in round1 then grabbing say wayne/TO or even fitz/TJ/Colston is a better looking squad then grabbing say R.Moss then hoping that LJ or Lynch or McGahee slide to you in round2, which we know will not happen.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I love Steve Smith.That is all . . .

absolute steal this year.

he might be, to me though his QB has shown an inability to stay healthy, thus he has a slightly higher risk than the other top WR's.

 

[radballs]

Marques Colston: (3.01) Went form 14th as a rookie to 8th last season. Went form 70 catches as a rookie to 98 last year…this guy is only going to get better. Plays on a high octane offense, is the WR1, nothing to not like about this guy. I have him ranked much higher than #11.

Can you imagine starting off with some combo of LT/ADP at RB, then on the turn in rounds 2/3 you get to choose between Steve Smith, Marques Colston, and TJ Housh…pick 2 please. Unfair!!!

Just started an online WCOFF satellite league from the 1 spot yesterday. Started with LT/Chad Johnson/Colston. I'm pretty happy with that.

 

[David Yudkin]

I love Steve Smith.That is all . . .

absolute steal this year.

OK, I'll play . . .Smith is currently going as the #7 WR and the 24th player off the board overall. He's played 7 seasons and was an uber stud in 2005. He had one other season ranked 8th. His other 5 seasons? 114, 42, 15, 145, and 16. So he's had one season better than his ADP.Add in that Delhomme is coming off of serious surgery, the team may be more committed to the run, and there are 3 decent WR options in Muhammad, Hackett, and Jarrett and I'm not so sure Smith is a slam dunk value play this year.And I've been a Smith supporter for years and even had him ranked #1 heading into last year . . .

 

[Ministry of Pain]

How many WR ever put up 16 TD? How many of them just vanished after doing it?

Most of them didn't . . . but several of them did.Jerry Rice 22 1987, 9 1988Sterling Sharpe 18 1994, Retired 1989Mark Clayton 18 1984, 4 1985 Don Hutson 17 1942, 11 1943Elroy Hirsch 17 1951, 4 1952Bill Groman 17 1961, 3 1962Jerry Rice 17 1989, 13 1990Carl Pickens 17 1995, 12 1996Cris Carter 17 1995, 10 1996Randy Moss 17 1998, 11 1999 Randy Moss 17 2003, 13 2004 Art Powell 16 1963, 11 1964 Terrell Owens 16 2001, 13 2002 Muhsin Muhammad 16 2004, 4 2005

Nice, thank you.I think Moss, Rice, and Owens are probably the best WR to compare Edwards and his talent, Pickens too...looks like most of them cleared at least 10 the next season. As i say, short of an injury i think Braylon will continue to flirt with top10 numbers for awhile.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

How many WR ever put up 16 TD? How many of them just vanished after doing it?

Most of them didn't . . . but several of them did.Jerry Rice 22 1987, 9 1988Sterling Sharpe 18 1994, Retired 1989Mark Clayton 18 1984, 4 1985 Don Hutson 17 1942, 11 1943Elroy Hirsch 17 1951, 4 1952Bill Groman 17 1961, 3 1962Jerry Rice 17 1989, 13 1990Carl Pickens 17 1995, 12 1996Cris Carter 17 1995, 10 1996Randy Moss 17 1998, 11 1999 Randy Moss 17 2003, 13 2004 Art Powell 16 1963, 11 1964 Terrell Owens 16 2001, 13 2002 Muhsin Muhammad 16 2004, 4 2005

Nice, thank you.I think Moss, Rice, and Owens are probably the best WR to compare Edwards and his talent, Pickens too...looks like most of them cleared at least 10 the next season. As i say, short of an injury i think Braylon will continue to flirt with top10 numbers for awhile.

This is interesting. Looking at Edwards' and Winslow's numbers from 2007 they are virtually identical except for TDs and redzone targets. Huge discrepancy in 2007. I'd expect those numbers to even out a bit this year too.

 

[FUBAR]

I love Steve Smith.That is all . . .

absolute steal this year.

he might be, to me though his QB has shown an inability to stay healthy, thus he has a slightly higher risk than the other top WR's.

When has Matt Moore been injured?

 

[Stinkin Ref]

in any league where you can start 3 RB in some shape, form, or fashion I am not sure I would use this strategy from any draft spot......

otherwise in a "have to start 3 WR" league, I think it could be a good play....

I would like to see how a flex position changes the strategy here......and is it just me or don't most leagues go with a 2/2/flex now.....?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I love Steve Smith.That is all . . .

absolute steal this year.

he might be, to me though his QB has shown an inability to stay healthy, thus he has a slightly higher risk than the other top WR's.

When has Matt Moore been injured?

yeah ok.

 

[podunker]

I'm just going to comment on the draft strategy. I like the idea of getting two of the top 12 WR's this year. But I think draft position dictates a lot. If your picking mid round say 5,6,7 it is much more feasable than later on. It's a rare occasion when any of the top 12 WR's last past the 3.03 mark. I have seen Burress last that long a few times this year. My last top 12 RB usually goes no later than 3.06 or so also. So if your drafting at the 8-12 spots you will not get a top 12 RB in the third round if you go WR,WR at the 1,2 turns. It also depends on how comfortable you feel about your ability to find value at the RB position later on. Most owners would say it was the kiss of death not to take at least one RB with your first two picks. I only play in PPR leagues, (exceptt No Mercy) so my thoughts are based on that. I tried this stategy in one of my recent leagues when I had the 6th pick. I took Wayne at the 6th spot, (I know I should have taken Moss, that's for another disussion). I then got Fitz coming back. I then hoped my last RB1 prospect would hold on until round three. He did and i took Lewis at that point. Most owners probably would not be happy with Lewis as their RB1. I immediately followed that up with Graham and Rudi in the next two rounds. The things I found out by doing this strategy is this:

1. forget getting a top TE or QB because those options will be gone for you. You will have no choice but to go RB's for the most part when other owners are taking Witten, Gates, Winslow, Gonzo, Brady, Manning, Brees, Palmer, Ben.

2. forget doing it with a late round 1 pick. You'll end up with guys like Parker, Turner, Jacobs, or worse as your RB1. (Some would put Lewis in that bunch)

3. The top 3 slots in the draft is the best time to land two top 12 Wr's because you can get them in rounds two and three. You will get LT, Westy, AD as RB1, two of the bottom six of the WR's in rounds two and three. Get another RB in the fourth, and still be able to get a top TE or QB in the fifth or sixth.

Over all this year I don't like the stategy of going WR/WR with your first two picks.

 

[CD Dragon]

i think the turn has good value this year

though this is the guppy league in the no mercy league

1.12 r moss

2.1 r grant

3.12 m turner

4.1 t jones

5.12 d bowe

6.1 k winslow

7.12 e manning

8.1 m harrison

9.12 f jones

10.1 j porter

11.12 bran jackson

12.1 j kitna

13.12 NYG D

14.1 darrell jax

15.12 al smith (QB)

16.1 don lee

17.12 s slaton

18.1 josh brown

i think this year is an unprecedented year on getting Rb starters through 5-6 rounds. i dont recall so many RBs that are available so late. it is mainly due to the fact that last year the RB position was so riddled with injury that people are either

A) unsure who is the starter on the team and are not willing to gamble on the current favorite

B) unsure on the healing timetable on the injured RBs

or

C) are going solely on last years stats and not taking into consideration injuries, teammate injuries, and /or team improvements

there is a lot of value available in the later rounds if you are a savvy gambler

 

[Bri]

MOP,

good post

How about age here? It seems we're at a point where a good chunk of the top 20 are older.

Plax's not practicing due to ankle now this off-season's unhappy with contract or maybe that the sun's out-at some point its gotta bite him that he's not putting the time in, doesn't it? Also might not be this thread but if he's not practicing, Steve Smith is getting 1st team reps. Thoughts on that? Where he'd rank?

I don't "follow" ranking Colston 11th. You did say he went from 14th to 8th, then real positive things- so it's actually a drop for him.

 

[MCguidance]

How many WR ever put up 16 TD? How many of them just vanished after doing it?

Most of them didn't . . . but several of them did.Jerry Rice 22 1987, 9 1988

Sterling Sharpe 18 1994, Retired 1989

Mark Clayton 18 1984, 4 1985

Don Hutson 17 1942, 11 1943

Elroy Hirsch 17 1951, 4 1952

Bill Groman 17 1961, 3 1962

Jerry Rice 17 1989, 13 1990

Carl Pickens 17 1995, 12 1996

Cris Carter 17 1995, 10 1996

Randy Moss 17 1998, 11 1999

Randy Moss 17 2003, 13 2004

Art Powell 16 1963, 11 1964

Terrell Owens 16 2001, 13 2002

Muhsin Muhammad 16 2004, 4 2005

I suspect Sterling Sharpe called Doc Brown and told him to grab the flux capacitor and fire up the Delorean so he could go back 5 years and retire?This was also useful information in the Jennings predictions. Puts things in perspective in terms of the likelihood of TD replication.

 

[skillz]

I am targetting two of the top 12 this year. That way, I won't have to worry about my WR's all season long (barring injury). I can just start my two studs and be done with it. I hate drafting a bunch of mediocre WR's and playing match ups b/c inevitably I end up picking the wrong guy to start while someone else goes off on my bench. I really like Colston this year and have him ranked higher than Fitz, Edwards, and Steve Smith. I am still reluctant to pick either TJ or Chad given the volatility of the Bengals locker room this year. I'll let someone else deal with that mess as the season progresses.

I would add Marshall to the top tier though and call it the "Top 13." I would love to have him on my team as a WR2 this year.

 

[Tanner9919]

Obviously the next thread will be the WR13-24 tier or about that...of most of those WR, I could pass on just about all fo them except for 1-2, so maybe if you can grab 2 WR in the Big 12, then you can focus back to the RB, top tier QB, and top tier TE as well. I would think if you devote rounds 2 and 3 to WR, likely you can skip that position toill about round 6 or 7...the problem I see there however is this season in round 7-10 there is some real value at RB.

until AJ finishes a complete 16-game schedule, I would never list him in the top 12. There's not a single more frustrating player in the NFL than AJ, because of the talent, the speed, and the injuries..T.O.s numbers dropped off a bit towards the end of 2007...is that a trend?Braylon Edwards had a great season , but will his QB repeat his performance? if not, Edwards' numbers are sure to plummet.You might want to add Santonio Holmes into the mix