The Calvin Johnson Era Begins (1 Viewer)

[BigJim®]

CJ was targeted 6.3 times per game and RW 8.7 per game last year. That would work out to 101 and 139 targets.Last year, teams with two guys that saw the ball way more than that were the Pats with Welker and Moss, the Bengals with CJ and Housh, and the Cards with Fitz and Boldin. That's about it.The pre-Martz Lions were in the range of 500 passes and 400 rushing attempts. Last year, they had 587 and 324. True, they could still be a terrible running team, but I still think they will run way more than last year.Maybe Williams and Megatron will become like those other guys I listed above, but it's not like they were ignored last year.

Good stuff guys. How many targets did Furrey and McDonald see per game last year? 101 and 139 aren't THAT many targets considering Welker had about 139 CATCHES last year.

MacDonald saw 7.9 targets and Furrey 5.6 targets. That adds uo to 13.5 targets between them. I doubt anyone things that will happen again, but I would think it still may conceivable that combined they see half that number (so say 6.5 to 7.0 targets). That alone would free up 105-110 targets).If the Lions drop down to 500 attempts like they did pre Martz, that would only leave 20-25 extra targets (remember, we were taking off 85 passing attempts from the Martz-era numbers).So the math question becomes, does the fact that Martz used 3 or 4 receivers get negated by throwing the ball less?Alsom the other factor that is getting glossed over is that if the Lions really do go a lot more with CJ and RW and fewer WR sets, then there are also more defenders available to cover them as well. Kitna's numbers overall saw a slight bump in the Martz system on a per pass basis, but his numbers saw a big bump based to the volume of passes he threw.We assume that throwing to CJ and RW will be a boom to Kitna, but Kitna could just as easily revert to his lower yards per attempt and yards per completion numbers from his pre-Martz days.Again, I'm not say that Williams and Johnson won't do better or that they won't do well. I'm just wondering how well they should be projected to do and whether the hype is justified.

I think you are better off just forgetting all of this minutiae in trying to defend why a superfreak player won't perform as one. I'd be interested how many times Randy Moss was targetted as a rookie when he scored 17 TDs, most of them for 35+ yards. He only had 69 receptions. Why do I think that's relevant? Well, if Brian Billick had gone 4 WR every play, and he gave Cunningham 2 seconds to pass the ball, that season would have never happened. You would have seen the same receptions for far shorter yardage and far less TDs. It is possible that a vanilla offense will help Calvin and Roy take better advantage of their obvious mismatches even if they are in the 80 reception area. I don't care how many targets they had last year... I care about the type of targets. That offense provided no real opportunity for downfield throwing so they were not used as effectively as they could have been, IMHO. I think we've already seen the difference this preseason.

I know what the numbers show from the preseason, but I generally try not to pay much attention to them because they are a distorted sense of reality.In 2005, coming off a monster season, Daunte Culpepper played lights out like you wouldn't believe in the preseason. His totals were 36 for 44 for 520 yards with an 82% completion rate. People were DYING to draft him. When the season started, he was TERRIBLE.So while I agree in theory with your assessment, I wouldn't be all that swayed by what happened in the preseason.

Nor am I. Your point about preseason is well taken. I was initially planning to retort that much of Culpepper's problems in 2005 was the offense being placed in the hands of completely unproven Steve Loney, an OL coach who lasted a whopping 1 year running a god awful unit regardless of who was QB. Obviously there are some similarities though with OL coach Colletto assuming OC duties; who knows how he will do and definitely regular season is where his ability to coordinate will be determined. It's probably the biggest question mark for this offense as a whole. Another point on Culpepper is he was probably one of the more inconsistent performers in NFL history, ranging from superstar to goat depending on the game/season with little explanation. But in my gut I feel this analogy is flawed, as there really is no reason to believe CJ can't embarrass CBs every time he gets 1-on-1 coverage, and Kitna is given an extra second to throw. I maintain that Calvin would excel in virtually any offense better than he did in Martz's, which gave Kitna virtually no time to take advantage of CJ/RW mismatches. I think we'll see a lot more max protect heave-hos this year.

 

[David Yudkin]

As I touched upon briefly earlier, is anyone concerned that Kitna does not have the pedigree that some of the other WRs have working in their favor?

Other than Delhomme with Smith and Muhammad (both prime examples of tunnel vision), most of the other true elite guys in recent years have had a stout QB:

Moss = Brady

Wayne, Harrison = Manning

Ocho Cinco, Housh = Palmer

Walker, Driver = Favre

Does Kitna at QB scare anyone in terms of elite production from Megatron?

 

[FFdork]

As I touched upon briefly earlier, is anyone concerned that Kitna does not have the pedigree that some of the other WRs have working in their favor?Other than Delhomme with Smith and Muhammad (both prime examples of tunnel vision), most of the other true elite guys in recent years have had a stout QB:Moss = BradyWayne, Harrison = ManningOcho Cinco, Housh = PalmerWalker, Driver = FavreDoes Kitna at QB scare anyone in terms of elite production from Megatron?

It's a concern, but given where you could get Calvin in a lot of redrafts it was worth the risk IMHO. I see the Vikings-era Moss comparison has come up already, but that's the situation I would look at. Much like it did with Moss in those years, the level of QB play will determine whether he's top 5 or top 15, but either way that's all upside if you got him at pick 5.6.So far no one seems very excited about the Lions run game, so while I'm sure they're going to try to run more and keep defenses honest, it doesn't take a genius to compare Smith/Rudi with Calvin/Roy and see where the strength of the offense is. I think there will be plenty of targets for Calvin to rise to elite status. It just remains to be seen if those college performances and off the chart measurables will translate to on the field success. The preseason certainly looked promising.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Regarding last years targets, McDonald and Furrey were targeted more than Calvin and Roy. McDonald's targets will probably be cut in half at least, while Furrey is going to see his targets fall off the map. Another really overlooked thing is the TYPE of targets. Last year, the high majority of targets to Roy and Calvin were downfield, which of course, yielded a much lower percentage. This year, Kitna is using more 3 and 5 step drops, more bootlegs, and more play action. He is going to get the ball to his playmakers and let them make plays.

Last year, Calvin hurt his back and did not practice much, if at all, for a good 2 months. A rookie WR who can't practice is going to struggle. His injury was a lot worse than people think. He had to take pain meds just to play. He is healthy now and it is easy to see the difference.

Calvin had great numbers in the preseason, but that's not the important thing. Preseason numbers don't mean a whole lot. What is important in preseason is seeing how a player looks, and Calvin looked downright beastly. He was the most impressive player I saw in preseason and he looked uncoverable. I saw the Lions practice a coup-le of times and he was abusing the corners. In FBG rankings, his consensus ranking when the magazine came out was 22nd. I had him ranked 9th in the magazine; no other staffer had him higher than 16th. The FBG rankings as of yesterday, his consensus ranking is 13th, and 6 staffers have him in the top 10. I have to believe people saw him play and watched him physically dominate CBs. Everything about his game is much better than last year. He rose up the draft boards more than anyone I can think of with the exception of injury related moves and the Chris Perry thing.

Martz leaving is not a bad thing for Calvin. It is the opposite (in my opinion). The slot WRs last year got the targets because they were open. That's all well and good, but in the end, if you have stud playmakers, you have to get the ball in their hands as much as possible and that is exactly what the Lions will do this year.

I took him in a draft last night at the 2/3 turn (the draft David Yudkin was referring to. I admittedly reached a little, but there was no other WR that stood out enough for me to not take Calvin. I planned all along on taking him at the turn and I do not regret it one bit. I am not a conservative drafter. I know all about the value thing, but I did not have any problem taking Calvin at the 2/3 turn. I have him ranked 6th and he was the 8th WR off the board.

I think he is going to break out in a big way this year for the above reasons. Talent usually finds its way to the top.

 

[cjack]

As I touched upon briefly earlier, is anyone concerned that Kitna does not have the pedigree that some of the other WRs have working in their favor?Other than Delhomme with Smith and Muhammad (both prime examples of tunnel vision), most of the other true elite guys in recent years have had a stout QB:Moss = BradyWayne, Harrison = ManningOcho Cinco, Housh = PalmerWalker, Driver = FavreDoes Kitna at QB scare anyone in terms of elite production from Megatron?

I'd be happy with Fitzgerald, B. Edwards, A. Johnson (pre-injury) 2007 type numbers and they had a pedestrian combo of Warner/Leinart, Anderson and Schaub/Rosenfels throwing to them. I don't think he needs an elite QB, just a capable one.

 

[timschochet]

There's been lots of great information provided here. I feel pretty confident about Johnson because I took him as my 2nd WR, #16 overall, and I've got to believe that he'll do much better than that. If he ends up anywhere in the top 15, it was a positive pick for me (my first WR was Burress.)

But I'm optimistic and hoping for even more than that. Yes, there will be more targets for him, but the main thing is he is a freak. Look how effective Plax was last night (hopefully, that will continue as well.) This is the sort of performance I am hoping for.

 

[FavreCo]

As I touched upon briefly earlier, is anyone concerned that Kitna does not have the pedigree that some of the other WRs have working in their favor?Other than Delhomme with Smith and Muhammad (both prime examples of tunnel vision), most of the other true elite guys in recent years have had a stout QB:Moss = BradyWayne, Harrison = ManningOcho Cinco, Housh = PalmerWalker, Driver = FavreDoes Kitna at QB scare anyone in terms of elite production from Megatron?

Nope. Calvin has years of experience with horrid QBs. Kitna is infinately better than what CJ went thru in college. I would worry more if Kitna was not in there. The concern with Kitna is a bad throw that CJ can get to like last year and then get dumped on his back again or worse.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Chad had 90/1355/10 with Kitna in 2003.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

As I touched upon briefly earlier, is anyone concerned that Kitna does not have the pedigree that some of the other WRs have working in their favor?Other than Delhomme with Smith and Muhammad (both prime examples of tunnel vision), most of the other true elite guys in recent years have had a stout QB:Moss = BradyWayne, Harrison = ManningOcho Cinco, Housh = PalmerWalker, Driver = FavreDoes Kitna at QB scare anyone in terms of elite production from Megatron?

MOSS also = Daunte and put up big #'s. T.O.Garcia and did well too. Obviously CJ would be better off with a better QB but Kitna is still a PRO football player that has thrown for allot of yds.

 

[Cass Durham]

CJ was targeted 6.3 times per game and RW 8.7 per game last year. That would work out to 101 and 139 targets.Last year, teams with two guys that saw the ball way more than that were the Pats with Welker and Moss, the Bengals with CJ and Housh, and the Cards with Fitz and Boldin. That's about it.The pre-Martz Lions were in the range of 500 passes and 400 rushing attempts. Last year, they had 587 and 324. True, they could still be a terrible running team, but I still think they will run way more than last year.Maybe Williams and Megatron will become like those other guys I listed above, but it's not like they were ignored last year.

Good stuff guys. How many targets did Furrey and McDonald see per game last year? 101 and 139 aren't THAT many targets considering Welker had about 139 CATCHES last year.

MacDonald saw 7.9 targets and Furrey 5.6 targets. That adds uo to 13.5 targets between them. I doubt anyone things that will happen again, but I would think it still may conceivable that combined they see half that number (so say 6.5 to 7.0 targets). That alone would free up 105-110 targets).If the Lions drop down to 500 attempts like they did pre Martz, that would only leave 20-25 extra targets (remember, we were taking off 85 passing attempts from the Martz-era numbers).So the math question becomes, does the fact that Martz used 3 or 4 receivers get negated by throwing the ball less?Alsom the other factor that is getting glossed over is that if the Lions really do go a lot more with CJ and RW and fewer WR sets, then there are also more defenders available to cover them as well. Kitna's numbers overall saw a slight bump in the Martz system on a per pass basis, but his numbers saw a big bump based to the volume of passes he threw.We assume that throwing to CJ and RW will be a boom to Kitna, but Kitna could just as easily revert to his lower yards per attempt and yards per completion numbers from his pre-Martz days.Again, I'm not say that Williams and Johnson won't do better or that they won't do well. I'm just wondering how well they should be projected to do and whether the hype is justified.

Great discussion. What I think this all boils down to is what you think of Johnson.. I believe he was injured and a rookie last year so he didnt add much impact to the offense, but this year I believe he will have a huge impact due in part to his health and maturation and also in large part to the more basic offense..... Think... adding TO to the Eagles only to a slightly lesser degree, the numbers prior to TO being there bore little resemblance to the numbers after TO arrived and thus are inconsequential to some degree.

I think we are all saying somewhat the same thing. . . Calvin will do better. It's defining what better translates to that is the intriguing part.As I said, I would have no problem rostering and starting him, but the line in the sand for all of us will be different in what it costs to get him in your lineup each week.As for the guys from teams with big target numbers and bigger numbers in general, they include players with Brady, Manning, and Palmer at QB (and Warner too).I'm not sure I have the faith in Jon Kitna that I do in that other set of QBs.Put another way, if Williams and Johnson out up the numbers that some folks are suggesting, then Kitna is WAY under projected at QB20.

This is correct. Most people are missing the boat on Kitna this year. He is back in a more comfortable offense where he has proven to be successful. I have him ranked in my top 10 QBs going into the year. That's above Palmer too for the record.

Chad had 90/1355/10 with Kitna in 2003.

And.....this is arguably Ocho Cinco's best year of fantasy production in the NFL. Kitna for the win.

 

[Scooby1974]

I'm not sure Kitna outproduces Palmer, but he has the upside for top 10 for sure.

 

[Cass Durham]

I'm not sure Kitna outproduces Palmer, but he has the upside for top 10 for sure.

The overall vibe in Cinci has me concerned this year. Palmer is playing with a one-armed Ocho Cinco, a one-legged TJ and a terrible O-line that just lost their starting fullback. I have my doubts about it all with these question marks. Although they will be getting C.Henry back in 4 weeks and things are never exactly what you see on paper, I still dropped Palmer down to about 12 on my sheets.So, it was a combination of Kitna rising and Palmer falling that helps put Kitna in my top 10.

 

[Ripleys]

I agree with the thread originator. It starts this weekend. 8 catches, 130 yards, 2 TDS.

And I'm not just saying this because I have him in 9 leagues either.

 

[gman74]

Chad had 90/1355/10 with Kitna in 2003.

If I am not mistaken That is the only time 85 had 10 td's in a season

 

[timschochet]

So far, so good. 5 receptions in the first half for 86 yards, and the Lions don't seem to have any defense. That bodes well this year for Mr. Johnson.

 

[Ripleys]

I haven't even looked at NFL.com but after watching most of the game, I think he had at least 10-12 targets, if not more. He's gonna have a MONSTER year. *Just checked, 12 targets. Several deep or end zone shots.

 

[BigJim®]

Weren't there also 2 pass interferences called against his defender in the endzone placing the ball at the 1 each time? Some things won't show in the stats.

 

[yinzer]

Weren't there also 2 pass interferences called against his defender in the endzone placing the ball at the 1 each time? Some things won't show in the stats.

This is correctAnd yes, that has to be the worst D in the NFL, so I assume plenty of passing even with no MartzIt might sound stupid, but I see him putting up 10 fantasy points (no PPR) almost every week. I dont see too many weeks where he doesnt get near 100 yards OR gets a TD and like 50 yards.Those pass interference plays not only bode well for the team, but Im sure hell grab a few 1 yard fades and quick passes

 

[Steeler43]

Who came up with the nickname Megatron?

I picture a Sci-Fi channel fan living in his mother's basement.

Please stop calling CJ Megatron, seriously.

 

[FFdork]

Was hoping for a little more against those 5'5" Falcons CBs (I'm exaggerating...slightly), but, as others have pointed out, if a few things break differently he has a monster day instead of just a good one.

I am a little worried about Kitna staying upright though. He took a lot of hits.

 

[bcover27]

Who came up with the nickname Megatron?I picture a Sci-Fi channel fan living in his mother's basement.Please stop calling CJ Megatron, seriously.

I'm pretty sure it was Roy Williams (DET) that gave him the name

 

[yinzer]

Who came up with the nickname Megatron?I picture a Sci-Fi channel fan living in his mother's basement.Please stop calling CJ Megatron, seriously.

Because CJ is that much better?! And it totally distinguishes him from Chris Johnson as well, not to mention before last week Chad JohnsonAnd yeah, almost positive it was Roy Williams. If its good enough for Roy, its good enough for meI actually think its a pretty sweet nickname...better than Rocket or something unoriginal like that or CJ

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Who came up with the nickname Megatron?I picture a Sci-Fi channel fan living in his mother's basement.Please stop calling CJ Megatron, seriously.

Am I the only one that finds it funny when someone posting on a fantasy football internet message board says something is too nerdy for them?That's not even considering that the "Sci-fi channel fan living in his mother's basement" is actually a 215lb NFL WR that could knock you on your ### just by looking at you.

 

[Phurfur]

Who came up with the nickname Megatron?I picture a Sci-Fi channel fan living in his mother's basement.Please stop calling CJ Megatron, seriously.

Am I the only one that finds it funny when someone posting on a fantasy football internet message board says something is too nerdy for them?That's not even considering that the "Sci-fi channel fan living in his mother's basement" is actually a 215lb NFL WR that could knock you on your ### just by looking at you.

Yes, Roy actually had the action figure with him when he used the name during ESPN's FF draft special.

 

[Captain Blowhard]

Was hoping for a little more against those 5'5" Falcons CBs (I'm exaggerating...slightly), but, as others have pointed out, if a few things break differently he has a monster day instead of just a good one.I am a little worried about Kitna staying upright though. He took a lot of hits.

He had...what? 7/107 I think...that's pretty good. Plus he was tackled in the endzone once for pass interference that set up one of the running tds the Lions had. In short, he had good stats today--and a couple of other times the Falcons blatantly interfered with him and gladly took the penalty instead. He's a monster. Relax.

 

[FavreCo]

Was hoping for a little more against those 5'5" Falcons CBs (I'm exaggerating...slightly), but, as others have pointed out, if a few things break differently he has a monster day instead of just a good one.I am a little worried about Kitna staying upright though. He took a lot of hits.

He had...what? 7/107 I think...that's pretty good. Plus he was tackled in the endzone once for pass interference that set up one of the running tds the Lions had. In short, he had good stats today--and a couple of other times the Falcons blatantly interfered with him and gladly took the penalty instead. He's a monster. Relax.

At least 3 targets in the endzone by the wildly inconsistent Kitna who also overthrew a wide open Calvin along the sidelines. Man, if he had a QB.......

 

[Debeucci]

Was hoping for a little more against those 5'5" Falcons CBs (I'm exaggerating...slightly), but, as others have pointed out, if a few things break differently he has a monster day instead of just a good one.I am a little worried about Kitna staying upright though. He took a lot of hits.

He had...what? 7/107 I think...that's pretty good. Plus he was tackled in the endzone once for pass interference that set up one of the running tds the Lions had. In short, he had good stats today--and a couple of other times the Falcons blatantly interfered with him and gladly took the penalty instead. He's a monster. Relax.

At least 3 targets in the endzone by the wildly inconsistent Kitna who also overthrew a wide open Calvin along the sidelines. Man, if he had a QB.......

Seems like Kitna has a tendency to throw it high to Johnson, I would assume on purpose so Johnson can outjump the defender. The problem with that is that he hangs Johnson out to dry several times a game. I was cringing every time Johnson went up for a high throw and wound up flat on his back. Those falls add up quickly.

 

[FFdork]

Was hoping for a little more against those 5'5" Falcons CBs (I'm exaggerating...slightly), but, as others have pointed out, if a few things break differently he has a monster day instead of just a good one.I am a little worried about Kitna staying upright though. He took a lot of hits.

He had...what? 7/107 I think...that's pretty good. Plus he was tackled in the endzone once for pass interference that set up one of the running tds the Lions had. In short, he had good stats today--and a couple of other times the Falcons blatantly interfered with him and gladly took the penalty instead. He's a monster. Relax.

I said he had a good day, blowhard We basically made the same point except for I was also concerned that Kitna took a lot of hits.

 

[FavreCo]

Seems like Kitna has a tendency to throw it high to Johnson, I would assume on purpose so Johnson can outjump the defender. The problem with that is that he hangs Johnson out to dry several times a game. I was cringing every time Johnson went up for a high throw and wound up flat on his back. Those falls add up quickly.

Yep. All of us Calvin Johnson owners cringe when he goes up for horrible Kitna tosses.

 

[MSULions]

YEs....Roy Williams dubbed Calvin "Megatron" after training camp last year...before he even played his first game.

and Yes...he's going to have 100 catches and 10+ tds this year. Dude is unstoppable. if anyone saw his one longer YAC play, it was like he was just gliding through the defenders. there were two with angles and somehow he just went through them and they ran into each other as he glided down the sideline. it was crazy. he's just ridiculously fast on top of his size.

 

[timschochet]

6 receptions, 129 yards, 2 touchdowns

The kid is sick! He may be the best WR in football already.

 

[mashers]

6 receptions, 129 yards, 2 touchdownsThe kid is sick! He may be the best WR in football already.

Nothing I like more when posters dig up old threads every time a squirrel finds a nut.

 

[cmv5]

6 receptions, 129 yards, 2 touchdownsThe kid is sick! He may be the best WR in football already.

Nothing I like more when posters dig up old threads every time a squirrel finds a nut.

The squirrel found 2 nuts.

 

[timschochet]

6 receptions, 129 yards, 2 touchdownsThe kid is sick! He may be the best WR in football already.

Nothing I like more when posters dig up old threads every time a squirrel finds a nut.

The squirrel found 2 nuts.

The squirrel has been dominant today!

 

[RUSF18]

6 receptions, 129 yards, 2 touchdownsThe kid is sick! He may be the best WR in football already.

Nothing I like more when posters dig up old threads every time a squirrel finds a nut.

The squirrel found 2 nuts.

The squirrel has been dominant today!

And was 7 for 107 last week.

 

[walkwithme]

I have to admit Megatron is a beast. Talent wise he is right there with any other receiver in the league. A guy that big that agile and that fast is just unfair to 90% of the DB's in the league. The era has really begun.

 

[Ripleys]

I agree with the thread originator. It starts this weekend. 8 catches, 130 yards, 2 TDS. And I'm not just saying this because I have him in 9 leagues either.

Sorry, I was one week off.

 

[Restricted]

I bought Megatron like a mofo in redrafts, usually a round or two early. Thnakels for the heads up.

 

[MDSkinner]

I bought Megatron like a mofo in redrafts, usually a round or two early. Thnakels for the heads up.

Same here, really thanks to the earlier CJ thread that was going around earlier in the year. I have him in every redraft league that I am in (4 of them). Right now, I am quite thankful for reading this board. He looks like a monster. Though, I must admit he really did not do that much until the end of this game, and I was concerned early on.

 

[mr. furley]

he has to do a better job fighting off the jam at the l.o.s.

his two big plays came with Bigby not patrolling the middle and the Packers not jamming at the line. early on in the game he was invisible.. as was the incomparable Roy Williams.

he looks like a fantastic athlete and his speed was shocking but let's not get crazy and call him the best WR in the league.

 

[Ripleys]

I'll argue he and Marshall are the 2 best WRs in the league.

 

[yinzer]

6 receptions, 129 yards, 2 touchdownsThe kid is sick! He may be the best WR in football already.

Nothing I like more when posters dig up old threads every time a squirrel finds a nut.

If Megatron is a squirrel finding a nut, Ocho Cinco must still be in hibernation

 

[FavreCo]

I'll argue he and Marshall are the 2 best WRs in the league.

Yes, they are.I drafted them back to back in 2006 and 2006 to pair with Andre Johnson and Greg Jennings.