The case for Gonzalez over Graham (1 Viewer)

[spodog]

Over the last 14 years, Trendy Tim has drafted the consensus preseason favorite at TE each and every year. Trendy Tim produced a nice 1,583 points with these picks. Tim also burnt up a draft pick between the 2nd and 4th round every single year on the TE spot. Trendy Tim only ended up with Tony Gonzalez on his team 3 times in those 14 years, as Gonzalez is rarely ranked as the top TE during preseason rankings.

During that same span, Steady Stan simply drafted Tony Gonzalez for his team every year, regardless of where Tony G was ranked by the experts. Steady Stan was able to get 1,807 points from the TE spot on his team with his simple "draft Gonzalez every year" strategy. Often, Steady Stan was able to do this only expending an 8th or 9th round pick. Over the last 5 years, Steady Stan's league mates have laughed at him on draft day for drafting a "washed up" Gonzalez as they spent their TE picks on cool choices like Jermichael Finley, Mercedes Lewis or even Coby Fleener last year.

In 6 of those 14 years, Trendy Tim's picks finished out of the Top 5 in scoring at the TE position. Several times, his pick was injured or ineffective and WAY out of the top 5, and Trendy Tim was was left scrambling to find TE points on the waiver wire or via trade. Only 3 times did Trendy Tim's top TE pick end up as the points leader for his position by the end of the season.

On the other hand, Steady Stan only finished outside the Top 5 in TE points in his league two times in those same 14 years. In both years, Steady Stan still had a viable starting TE, though, as in 2005 Gonzalez finished 7th in TE scoring, still producing over 100 points, and in 2010, Gonzalez put up 85 points and finished 13th.

Steady Stan never made a trade at TE and never went to the wire. Ever. In 14 years.

Gonzalez has only missed 3 regular season games to injury in his entire career since he became a starter in 1998. In 10 of those 14 seasons, Steady Stan had TE points that were in the TOP 3 for his entire league.

In 2013, Trendy Tim will be using up his 2nd round pick on Jimmy Graham. Steady Stan will be drafting Tony Gonzalez with a 6th or 7th round pick.

What will you be doing?

Data is below:

Year Gonzo Gonzo Gonzo Preaseason End of Season Tony Gonzalez

Yards TDs Points Favorite Points Leader Finish for Year

2012 930 8 141 Gronk 2nd (143) Graham (152) Gonzalez was 3rd @ 141
2011 875 7 130 Gates 7th (120) Gronk (241) Gonzalez was 4th @ 130
2010 656 6 85 Clark 29th (48) Witten (146) Gonzalez was 13th @ 85
2009 867 6 123 Witten 8th (115) Davis (174) Gonzalez was 5th @ 122
2008 1058 10 166 Witten 2nd (121) Gonzalez was 1st (166)
2007 1172 5 147 Gates 2nd (152) Witten (156) Gonzalez was 3rd @ 147
2006 900 5 120 Gates 1st (146) Gates (146) Gonzalez was 3rd @ 120
2005 905 2 103 Gates 1st (170) Gates (170) Gonzalez was 7th @ 103
2004 1258 7 168 Gonzalez 2nd (168) Gates (174) Gonzalez was 2nd (168)
2003 916 10 151 Shockey 11th (66) Gonzalez was 1st (151)
2002 773 7 119 Gonzalez 2nd (119) Heap (123) Gonzalez was 2nd (119)
2001 917 6 130 Gonzalez 1st (130) Gonzalez was 1st (130)
2000 1203 9 174 Walls 14th (54) Gonzalez was 1st (174)
1999 849 11 150 Sharpe 37th (22) Wesley Walls (154) Gonzalez was 2nd (150)

 

[meyerj31]

Drafting Witten in the 6th.

With the supposed expanded involvement of SJax (and possibly Quizz) in the passing game, and the continued development of Julio, I would be surprised if Gonzo had more than 80 receptions. That would still warrant a top 4 TE performance and around a 7th round selection according to VBD, though.

Witten seems much more likely to hit 90+ receptions (and a ceiling to the 110 last year) than Gonzo. I'd rather spend a 6th on Witten than a 7th on Gonzo this year.

 

[JHuber77]

WTF is Trendy Tim and Steady Stan?

 

[dickey moe]

WTF is Trendy Tim and Steady Stan?

FF mnemonic devices.

 

[matttyl]

Drafting Witten in the 6th.

With the supposed expanded involvement of SJax (and possibly Quizz) in the passing game, and the continued development of Julio, I would be surprised if Gonzo had more than 80 receptions. That would still warrant a top 4 TE performance and around a 7th round selection according to VBD, though.

Witten seems much more likely to hit 90+ receptions (and a ceiling to the 110 last year) than Gonzo. I'd rather spend a 6th on Witten than a 7th on Gonzo this year.

You thinking Witten gets 147 targets again (career high), or Romo has 650 pass attempts again (roughly 100 more than his previous career high)?! Witten had over twice as many targets last year as Jared Cook, and had fewer TDs, chew on that one. I'll take Cook in the 8th, thank you.

 

[eaglesfan7]

Why draft Gonzalez in the 6th when you can get him in the 10th?

 

[msudaisy26]

Why draft Gonzalez in the 6th when you can get him in the 10th?

In a 8 team league maybe

 

[FUBAR]

Drafting Witten in the 6th.

With the supposed expanded involvement of SJax (and possibly Quizz) in the passing game, and the continued development of Julio, I would be surprised if Gonzo had more than 80 receptions. That would still warrant a top 4 TE performance and around a 7th round selection according to VBD, though.

Witten seems much more likely to hit 90+ receptions (and a ceiling to the 110 last year) than Gonzo. I'd rather spend a 6th on Witten than a 7th on Gonzo this year.

You thinking Witten gets 147 targets again (career high), or Romo has 650 pass attempts again (roughly 100 more than his previous career high)?! Witten had over twice as many targets last year as Jared Cook, and had fewer TDs, chew on that one. I'll take Cook in the 8th, thank you.

I think Witten is a top 5 TE this year, sure.

but I'll wait and take the last of Pitta, Olsen, or Cook. If they're gone, M Bennett looks like a value play.

In most 1 TE start leagues there isn't a good reason to take a TE high. If they have enhanced scoring and you can start more than one, then it's worth considering.

 

[ImTheScientist]

In 2013, Trendy Tim will be using up his 2nd round pick on Jimmy Graham. Steady Stan will be drafting Tony Gonzalez with a 6th or 7th round pick.

What will you be doing?

'ing Trendy Tim and Steady Stan because I will be taking niether.

 

[eaglesfan7]

Why draft Gonzalez in the 6th when you can get him in the 10th?

In a 8 team league maybe

Serious? He's a backup in a 8 team league.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

In 2013, Trendy Tim will be using up his 2nd round pick on Jimmy Graham. Steady Stan will be drafting Tony Gonzalez with a 6th or 7th round pick.What will you be doing?

'ing Trendy Tim and Steady Stan because I will be taking niether.

Let me guess. Luke Willson in the 16th! Top-5!!!

 

[msudaisy26]

Why draft Gonzalez in the 6th when you can get him in the 10th?

In a 8 team league maybe

Serious? He's a backup in a 8 team league.

lol

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I'm still trying to decide if this is the dumbest thread in history of the Shark Pool.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I'm still trying to decide if this is the dumbest thread in history of the Shark Pool.

Not even close. It may have been done in a corny way, but the stats involved (Gonzo vs. the field) are at least interesting.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Witten had over twice as many targets last year as Jared Cook, and had fewer TDs, chew on that one. I'll take Cook in the 8th, thank you.

Denarius Moore had more touchdowns that Calvin Johnson last year. Are you gonna take Moore in the 3rd instead of Calvin in the 1st?

 

[spodog]

Drafting Witten in the 6th.

Not a bad choice, but Gonzalez still outscored him.

 

[spodog]

but I'll wait and take the last of Pitta, Olsen, or Cook. If they're gone, M Bennett looks like a value play.

Olsen and Cook were top 12, but Gonzalez outscored them easily. Pitta - ouch.

 

[spodog]

Add a 15th year to the trend above. Other than Julius Thomas, no one provided better value at the TE position then Gonzalez again this year.

Graham was likely worth the 2nd round pick owners had to invest.

You can make an argument for Vernon Davis here, but most owners had to draft Davis a full round or two before Gonzalez went off the board.

For a 5th or 6th round pick, Gonzalez provided predictable production, and banged out some of his best weeks in the all important Week 13 to 16 fantasy stretch/playoff period.

 

[buck naked]

You've been waiting weeks to post your "I was right" posts, huh?

Edit - except, of course, the title of this thread.

 

[Warrior]

Nice work. Next time, maybe tell us which TE will be on the top of the pile for the next 15 years, rather than looking back on the prior 14 with 20/20 hindsight.

This just in: Peyton Manning is a good QB and has been for a long time. Draft him next year and he'll be good again.

 

[Synthesizer]

Just want to point out that although Gonzalez was the preseason favorite in only three of those years, his preaseason ranking until recently has always been TE2-TE4. So you weren't using an "8th or 9th round pick" on him most of those years.

Gonzalez had a preseason ranking from FBG of TE6 and he finished the year as TE6. His stats ended up almost exactly as predicted. Graham had a huge year and outscored all other TEs by a big margin. So..... good job?

 

[spodog]

Just want to point out that although Gonzalez was the preseason favorite in only three of those years, his preaseason ranking until recently has always been TE2-TE4. So you weren't using an "8th or 9th round pick" on him most of those years.

Gonzalez had a preseason ranking from FBG of TE6 and he finished the year as TE6. His stats ended up almost exactly as predicted. Graham had a huge year and outscored all other TEs by a big margin. So..... good job?

Would be a good post if true. Unfortunately, it isn't true.

Just hit google with some random rankings ( espn, sports illustrated ) for the following years, and here is where Gonzalez was ranked in those years:

2010 - TE5

2011 - TE11

2012 - TE9

available in 8th or 9th round or lower in redraft in all of those years.

 

[bigbrownbag]

Just want to point out that although Gonzalez was the preseason favorite in only three of those years, his preaseason ranking until recently has always been TE2-TE4. So you weren't using an "8th or 9th round pick" on him most of those years.

Gonzalez had a preseason ranking from FBG of TE6 and he finished the year as TE6. His stats ended up almost exactly as predicted. Graham had a huge year and outscored all other TEs by a big margin. So..... good job?

Would be a good post if true. Unfortunately, it isn't true.

Just hit google with some random rankings ( espn, sports illustrated ) for the following years, and here is where Gonzalez was ranked in those years:

2010 - TE5

2011 - TE11

2012 - TE9

available in 8th or 9th round or lower in redraft in all of those years.

Did you reply to his post one year later?

 

[lod01]

Did you reply to his post one year later?

Maybe he just got back from a timeout.

 

[Synthesizer]

Just want to point out that although Gonzalez was the preseason favorite in only three of those years, his preaseason ranking until recently has always been TE2-TE4. So you weren't using an "8th or 9th round pick" on him most of those years.

Gonzalez had a preseason ranking from FBG of TE6 and he finished the year as TE6. His stats ended up almost exactly as predicted. Graham had a huge year and outscored all other TEs by a big margin. So..... good job?

Would be a good post if true. Unfortunately, it isn't true.

Just hit google with some random rankings ( espn, sports illustrated ) for the following years, and here is where Gonzalez was ranked in those years:

2010 - TE5

2011 - TE11

2012 - TE9

available in 8th or 9th round or lower in redraft in all of those years.

I said "until recently". You know, like the 10 years prior to those recent years you listed.

 

[FUBAR]

Just want to point out that although Gonzalez was the preseason favorite in only three of those years, his preaseason ranking until recently has always been TE2-TE4. So you weren't using an "8th or 9th round pick" on him most of those years.

Gonzalez had a preseason ranking from FBG of TE6 and he finished the year as TE6. His stats ended up almost exactly as predicted. Graham had a huge year and outscored all other TEs by a big margin. So..... good job?

Would be a good post if true. Unfortunately, it isn't true.

Just hit google with some random rankings ( espn, sports illustrated ) for the following years, and here is where Gonzalez was ranked in those years:

2010 - TE5

2011 - TE11

2012 - TE9

available in 8th or 9th round or lower in redraft in all of those years.

Did you reply to his post one year later?

weirdest reply (timing) ever?