TheSoup
Footballguy
More popular than McFadden.Dare I say, Chris Johnson is now getting more love than MJD on these boards?
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
The Chris Johnson Hype machine (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ForWhoForWhat
- Start date
EBF
Footballguy
Got him at 8.04 in my local 10 team redraft PPR league with mostly casual owners. Stewart and Forte were already gone. Felix went a couple picks earlier, so I doubt Johnson would've lasted much longer if I hadn't taken him.
6-8 rounds seems to be the sweet spot for his ADP. If you're in a shark league and you want him bad then you'll probably have to grab in the 5th-6th to be 100% sure you get him.
6-8 rounds seems to be the sweet spot for his ADP. If you're in a shark league and you want him bad then you'll probably have to grab in the 5th-6th to be 100% sure you get him.
msommer
Footballguy
Not if you actually read the thread;
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
8.01 in my league. I also have Lendale. I would love to see Lendale get injured and have Chris Johnson take over.
Wildcat
Footballguy
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
Bump as CJ gets the start tonight in pre-season game #3.
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
I thought you were a non-believer. Didn't you rank him 20 something among rookies?EBF said:
I have two drafts remaining. One is an auction and I expect to win him. I did in the survivor auction here. In a snake draft it's too hard project and I doubt I can move as early as you suggest. He went 8.09 in the league we just finished with at least a rounds worth of IDPs thrown in, pretty much validating what you're saying.
EBF
Footballguy
I'm not a hater. I drafted him in the 6th round of SSL2 in May.It's possible to be critical of a player and still recognize his value. Chris Johnson is a very intriguing prospect in PPR formats. I think I've maintained that all along. In that sense, I'm definitely a believer. Where I think the hype train goes off the rails is with the Westbrook comparisons and the talk about him being a powerful runner and a future every down back. I don't see that in the cards. And yes, I did have him ranked pretty low in my rookie rankings, but that was an oversight on my part. No first round RB should ever be ranked outside the top 10 rookies. To my credit, I had him pretty high at one point and I acknowledged that he had a lot of potential in PPR. My main criticism has always been that I don't think he has the total package needed to become a workhorse back. Very few backs who don't get the lion's share of the touches for their team become consistent top FF RBs.I thought you were a non-believer. Didn't you rank him 20 something among rookies?EBF said:
Last edited by a moderator:
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
I think with the way that teams are going to 2 backs more and more, your statement here will become less and less true, especially in ppr.I'm not a hater. I drafted him in the 6th round of SSL2 in May.It's possible to be critical of a player and still recognize his value. Chris Johnson is a very intriguing prospect in PPR formats. I think I've maintained that all along. In that sense, I'm definitely a believer. Where I think the hype train goes off the rails is with the Westbrook comparisons and the talk about him being a powerful runner and a future every down back. I don't see that in the cards.I thought you were a non-believer. Didn't you rank him 20 something among rookies?EBF said:
And yes, I did have him ranked pretty low in my rookie rankings, but that was an oversight on my part. No first round RB should ever be ranked outside the top 10 rookies. To my credit, I had him pretty high at one point and I acknowledged that he had a lot of potential in PPR. My main criticism has always been that I don't think he has the total package needed to become a workhorse back. Very few backs who don't get the lion's share of the touches for their team become consistent top FF RBs.
EBF
Footballguy
I disagree. If you look at the backs who achieved sustained value over an extended period of time in the past decade, few of them were in a RBBC situation. I'm not really buying the RBBC revolution talk. It will always pop in some situations where a team has two players of similar talent or two players who compensate for each other's weaknesses, but the workhorse back will continue to dominate the hobby just like it always has.tribecalledjeff said:I think with the way that teams are going to 2 backs more and more, your statement here will become less and less true, especially in ppr.EBF said:I'm not a hater. I drafted him in the 6th round of SSL2 in May.It's possible to be critical of a player and still recognize his value. Chris Johnson is a very intriguing prospect in PPR formats. I think I've maintained that all along. In that sense, I'm definitely a believer. Where I think the hype train goes off the rails is with the Westbrook comparisons and the talk about him being a powerful runner and a future every down back. I don't see that in the cards.Chaos Commish said:I thought you were a non-believer. Didn't you rank him 20 something among rookies?EBF said:
And yes, I did have him ranked pretty low in my rookie rankings, but that was an oversight on my part. No first round RB should ever be ranked outside the top 10 rookies. To my credit, I had him pretty high at one point and I acknowledged that he had a lot of potential in PPR. My main criticism has always been that I don't think he has the total package needed to become a workhorse back. Very few backs who don't get the lion's share of the touches for their team become consistent top FF RBs.
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
If it really is a revolution, then looking at the past decade doesn't really do much. And I'm probably not disagreeing with you as much as you think - note that I said your statement will become less true, not completely falseI disagree. If you look at the backs who achieved sustained value over an extended period of time in the past decade, few of them were in a RBBC situation. I'm not really buying the RBBC revolution talk. It will always pop in some situations where a team has two players of similar talent or two players who compensate for each other's weaknesses, but the workhorse back will continue to dominate the hobby just like it always has.tribecalledjeff said:I think with the way that teams are going to 2 backs more and more, your statement here will become less and less true, especially in ppr.EBF said:I'm not a hater. I drafted him in the 6th round of SSL2 in May.It's possible to be critical of a player and still recognize his value. Chris Johnson is a very intriguing prospect in PPR formats. I think I've maintained that all along. In that sense, I'm definitely a believer. Where I think the hype train goes off the rails is with the Westbrook comparisons and the talk about him being a powerful runner and a future every down back. I don't see that in the cards.Chaos Commish said:I thought you were a non-believer. Didn't you rank him 20 something among rookies?EBF said:
And yes, I did have him ranked pretty low in my rookie rankings, but that was an oversight on my part. No first round RB should ever be ranked outside the top 10 rookies. To my credit, I had him pretty high at one point and I acknowledged that he had a lot of potential in PPR. My main criticism has always been that I don't think he has the total package needed to become a workhorse back. Very few backs who don't get the lion's share of the touches for their team become consistent top FF RBs.
Sure, the elite backs will be the workhorses, but those are becoming more and more rare. Dismissing a back because he is in a committee could lead to missing some pretty darn good backs that can really help a fantasy team. (I know that you are not doing this, or you wouldn't have drafted CJ - I'm talking in generalities here.) Bush and MJD are recent examples of backs who appear that they will have sustained value over a long time and are in a committee, and I think that's the tip of the iceberg. CJ is next Would I rather have a 3 down back without a threat for carries? Sure. But there can still be a ton of value in a back that is part of a committee, and that the value can be sustained.
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
I didn't call you a hater, but a non-believer. I think you first ranked him around 25. Had an epiphany and moved him into the top 10, something I praised you for. Then you screwed up again and made him #17 in your final rankings.EBF said:I'm not a hater. I drafted him in the 6th round of SSL2 in May.It's possible to be critical of a player and still recognize his value. Chris Johnson is a very intriguing prospect in PPR formats. I think I've maintained that all along. In that sense, I'm definitely a believer. Where I think the hype train goes off the rails is with the Westbrook comparisons and the talk about him being a powerful runner and a future every down back. I don't see that in the cards.Chaos Commish said:I thought you were a non-believer. Didn't you rank him 20 something among rookies?EBF said:
And yes, I did have him ranked pretty low in my rookie rankings, but that was an oversight on my part. No first round RB should ever be ranked outside the top 10 rookies. To my credit, I had him pretty high at one point and I acknowledged that he had a lot of potential in PPR.
Obviously circumstances have changed. I'm sure those rankings have changed and look a lot more like mine nowEBF said:
, but I am curious. Where do you rank Johnson among these rookies now (for dynasty, of course)? I ranked him 4th and am struggling to keep him behind your #1, Mendenhall, who I still think should be 3rd (or 4th).
Last edited by a moderator:
FavreCo
Footballguy
Quick, we need an infusion of Chris Johnson hype on this thread before it's too late. You Johnson hypers, make sure you keep starting him weekly as you settle in at the bottom of the standings.
Last edited by a moderator:
EBF
Footballguy
I would probably take him in the 1.05-1.07 range in most formats. I wouldn't take him over Mendenhall, Stewart, or McFadden in any leagues. I can't really see myself taking him before Ray Rice. I might consider it in PPR, but I <3 Ray Rice. I have Johnson lumped in pretty tightly with Felix Jones. Johnson is more athletic and explosive. Felix is significantly heavier and (IMO) a better lateral runner. Tough call between those two. I've chosen Jones over Johnson twice in the dynasty format, so I think I probably favor Jones. The main sticking point with Chris Johnson is that he's a twig by NFL RB standards. Very low BMI. Very low weight. No doubt he's a dynamic athlete with monster combine numbers, but I don't think he has the frame to be an NFL starter. How do you rank a guy like that? He'll get some touches, but if you don't think he'll ever be a starter then it's tough to get excited about his dynasty prospects.Obviously circumstances have changed. I'm sure those rankings have changed and look a lot more like mine now
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
After tonight, whats his YPC, somewhere around 6.5?Quick, we need an infusion of Chris Johnson hype on this thread before it's too late. You Johnson hypers, make sure you keep starting him weekly as you settle in at the bottom of the standings.
FavreCo
Footballguy
So? That offense blows. There is no passing game. The Defenses will stack the line and pummel this pathetic offense.After tonight, whats his YPC, somewhere around 6.5?
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
OKSo? That offense blows. There is no passing game. The Defenses will stack the line and pummel this pathetic offense.After tonight, whats his YPC, somewhere around 6.5?
jwb
Footballguy
I agree with this quite a bit, and just took johnson at 3.12 in a dynasty startup. 3.12... Jacobs was still there. J Lewis was still there. So was Maroney. Thomas Jones... I took Johnson instead as my rb3. Why?Because I really feel the new "gotta have" player in FF (especially in PPR leagues) are guys like MJD, Johnson, and even (I feel) McFadden - guys who will do damage and score you nice points, on way less carries than true workhorses. Guys who will even have less injury risk (as a whole) because they touch the ball less. Guys who will catch 4-5 balls a game, and be a threat to take it to the hole anytime. I think you will see more and more of these types of guys. At worst, they'll be Jerious Norwood / Leon Washington. At best... Westy / MJD. And many will fall in the middle and be perfect RB2's and RB3's. These guys are going to be desired because you won't care if they share carries - the RBBC doesn't hurt them like it will Lendale or Jacobs or whtanot. They don't even really need a handcuff if you think about it, freeing up roster spots. I really feel Johnson will score me decent points every week. A few catches, a few nice runs on third down, a TD here and there - very happy I took him when I did. He has looked *awesome* - a special player worthy of the hype. I know every year some guy does ok in preseason and we never hear from him again, but some just seem to have "it". And he does.My .02 anyway (and worth every cent you paid)
EBF
Footballguy
When you think of the great FF backs of the past decade, which names come to mind?
LaDainian Tomlinson
Marshall Faulk
Edgerrin James
Shaun Alexander
Ahman Green
Priest Holmes
Clinton Portis
Larry Johnson
Brian Westbrook
Tiki Barber
Emmitt Smith
Fred Taylor
Curtis Martin
Jamal Lewis
Very few of the RBs on the above list ever split carries. That's because when you have a back that can do it all, you don't need anyone else (hence why no one expects RBBC in San Diego, St. Louis, or San Francisco this year). I maintain that RBBC will only exist in situations where you don't really have an elite starter (NYG, TEN) or where you have two elite starters (JAX, NO). Otherwise teams will feed their best player the ball.
Committee players can have value. That's nothing new. Charlie Garner was a nice FF back in his day. Warrick Dunn had some nice seasons splitting time with Alstott. This type of back is not a new development nor does it signify an emerging trend in the NFL.
The high BMI workhorse back will continue to be the most desirable and productive RB in FF. It was last year. It is this year. It will be again next year. You have to look at a guy like Chris Johnson and understand that he isn't LaDainian Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk, or Brian Westbrook. If he's lucky, he's Charlie Garner.
LaDainian Tomlinson
Marshall Faulk
Edgerrin James
Shaun Alexander
Ahman Green
Priest Holmes
Clinton Portis
Larry Johnson
Brian Westbrook
Tiki Barber
Emmitt Smith
Fred Taylor
Curtis Martin
Jamal Lewis
Very few of the RBs on the above list ever split carries. That's because when you have a back that can do it all, you don't need anyone else (hence why no one expects RBBC in San Diego, St. Louis, or San Francisco this year). I maintain that RBBC will only exist in situations where you don't really have an elite starter (NYG, TEN) or where you have two elite starters (JAX, NO). Otherwise teams will feed their best player the ball.
Committee players can have value. That's nothing new. Charlie Garner was a nice FF back in his day. Warrick Dunn had some nice seasons splitting time with Alstott. This type of back is not a new development nor does it signify an emerging trend in the NFL.
The high BMI workhorse back will continue to be the most desirable and productive RB in FF. It was last year. It is this year. It will be again next year. You have to look at a guy like Chris Johnson and understand that he isn't LaDainian Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk, or Brian Westbrook. If he's lucky, he's Charlie Garner.
Last edited by a moderator:
Michael Fox Fan
Footballguy
EBF - while I happen to agree with you, looking at the past decade simply doesn't address tribe's point. If "the world is suddenly changing", you aren't going to be able to disprove tribe's point by looking at successful players from the past decade. Essentially, the past is meaningless for proving or disproving his hypothesis.That said, I'm skeptical anytime someone makes the claim that "the world is suddenly changing." Sure, it could happen, but it's a rare event.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Didnt Curtis Martin and Clinton Portis both enter the league at 5'11" 205lbs. and Tiki Barber at 5'10" 200lbs. Also, if i recall correctly, Westbrook weighed less than 200 at 5'10"? What did Emmitt weigh when he came into the league? I know Faulk ended his career at 5'10" 211 lbs. but didnt he weigh less out of college as well? At 5'9, Holmes weighed 213 in KC, but i thought he put on weight before he went to the Chiefs.
EBF
Footballguy
It's hard to get information for most those guys since they entered the league before the draft craze (and resulting combine coverage) really kicked in. I can tell you right now that Westbrook was 5'8.3" and 200 pounds at the combine for a BMI of 30.1, which is right in the ideal range. People often cite his 5'10" listed height. It isn't accurate. This information from an old post of mine might be helpful:
Chris Johnson was 5'11" and 197 pounds at the combine for a BMI of 27.5. He would have to gain 22 pounds to meet the average BMI of a top 30 RB. He would have to gain 19 pounds to have the same BMI that Brian Westbrook had at this stage of his career. He would have to gain 38 pounds to have the same BMI Maurice Drew had at this stage of his career. There's almost no physical similarity between Johnson and either of those players. It's worth noting that he's already 23 years old, so his odds of putting on a substantial amount of weight are probably slightly lower than average since most elite backs enter the NFL at 21 or 22 years of age.
Last edited by a moderator:
Michael Fox Fan
Footballguy
Chunky Soup
Footballguy
..and before Bush, ADP, Grant, BMI supporters were saying they needed to add at least 3 lbs. Before Portis, said similar. And the same for Edge.When you keep lowering the bar, and accepting that there are exceptions, without saying where the bar stops, why those exceptions exist, etc, the theory needs work. Or just accept that there aren't real boundaries or predictive success with BMI.You're noticing a trend. Will that always exist? No. It will always be changing, and for all you know, Chris Johnson could be the next big "exception".
ThePittbully
Footballguy
Although he didnt look terrible, he definitely didnt look like a world beater last night
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
The former, and current O coordinator, under the same head coach has done very well w/ nearly the same amount of talent before. I'm not sold on V.Young the passer, but I never was on Vick and he was a fantasy producer and NFL game winner. Same for McNabb. And I guess Flutie (just to throw in the token white-guy and keep the race crap out of it... damn! I just put it there anyways). The common thread on these guys is that the RBs had value beyond their talent level because the D had to account for the mobile QB. Young commands a spy, effectively taking one defender "back out of the box." Expect to see 8 in the box defenses playing more like 7. Or 9 in the box playing more like 8 because of Young. For an explosive, pass catching RB, this is a recipe for stat whoring. Yes Lendale should get 50%+ of the carries, but Johnson should get 70%+ of RB receptions and an equal # of touches. I've said a dozen times now... don't underestimate this offense in '08 and even more in '09. Dynasty players (and this goes double for ppr leagues) CANNOT ignore this guy.FWIW, I am not a Titan fan or even a fan of the entire division, just have a healthy respect for an overacheiving HC and a good O coordinator teamed with some tremendous atheletes at QB & RB.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
There was less than no passing game last year, and the rushing game was still 5th in yards in the NFL. 5th in TDs, too, IIRC.So? That offense blows. There is no passing game. The Defenses will stack the line and pummel this pathetic offense.After tonight, whats his YPC, somewhere around 6.5?
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
One of the reasons I've been so high on Johnson is the way Jeff Fischer and Mike Heimerdinger talk about him and their expectations for him in the offense. Not just in playmaking ability, but in planning to use him heavily, believing he'll make an impact as a rookie, knowing they are now in possession of something special, waiting to unleash a new weapon, etc.
NFL coaches are a conservative, reticent lot . . . especially when it comes to acknowledging a rookie's potential impact. It's rare for an NFL head coach to be so publicly confident in a rookie. And Jeff Fisher is a throwback. He's as conservative as NFL coaches get, but he's been downright glib all summer about Johnson and his expectations for the rookie. He has no doubts whatsoever that Johnson will be a difference-maker in his offense. This is not normal.
From today's Nashville Tennessean after Johnson's "disappointing" performance in exhibition Week 3:
NFL coaches are a conservative, reticent lot . . . especially when it comes to acknowledging a rookie's potential impact. It's rare for an NFL head coach to be so publicly confident in a rookie. And Jeff Fisher is a throwback. He's as conservative as NFL coaches get, but he's been downright glib all summer about Johnson and his expectations for the rookie. He has no doubts whatsoever that Johnson will be a difference-maker in his offense. This is not normal.
From today's Nashville Tennessean after Johnson's "disappointing" performance in exhibition Week 3:
That nonchalance about Johnson breaking big plays has been omnipresent in Titans camp.
jwb
Footballguy
The thing is, in most PPR leagues, that admittedly crappy game from him netted you 7 or 8 points. Those two catches for 20+ become a big deal. This rather pedestrian game was like a regular RB going for 75 yards, no TD's and no catches (not unheard of at all.)Not saying CJ3 is a #1 back or anything, but if that's the absolute floor from my RB3 (which it probably is), and especially one with his speed/talent (you know you're going to see scores from him), I'll take it.
Michael Fox Fan
Footballguy
bump. this thread shouldn't ever be allowed to fall off page 1.
Lash
Footballguy
CJ3 outdistances the fastest of the above guys in a 40 yard dash by as much as Usain Bolt does his competitors in the 100a 4.2 by CJ3 racing a 4.3 by Bush is a huge gaping gap at the finish line between the twoCJ3 racing the 4.4 guys they wouldn't be on the same TV screen and lord help the 4.5+ guysi know speed isn't everything, there's BMI, vision, injury-avoidance and a the 82 other measurables listed in this threadbut all the measurables and comparatives in all the fantasy football discussions across the world today are comparing a guy running a 4.2 to other RBs when only Bo Knows who the other RB in history was THAT HAS EVER RUN THAT FASTso your comparisons are welcomed and even read over and considered, but understand you have NOTHING to compare him to, i have no idea whether he will be an RB1 one-day and no one knows about ANY of the RBs in this year's class either, we can just make good guessesbut what i do know is this guy is FFAAAAAASST
and passes the eye test live with an A+
Todem
Footballguy
And he had only 13 touches in the stat sheet. A full game he would have touched the ball 20 plus times.All you haters....wake up...he made some moves last night and his motor just gets into a higer gear off cuts. He is so fluid...and man this kid is strong. His agility is of the highest quality.A star player waiting to happen this season. I have full confidence in PPR he is a top 15 back this year with upside that is superstar potential.
Last edited by a moderator:
LHUCKS
Footballguy
the same coaching staff that wasted a high pick on Chris Henry last year because of his 40 time??oops
Todem
Footballguy
You are no doubt blind to how Chris Johnson looks then aren't you. Chris Henry looked like a bust in preseason. Johnson has displayed he has the talent to be a very nice all purpose back in this league.Bad bad comparison.
Last edited by a moderator:
msommer
Footballguy
So you are saying because they got it wrong last year they are always going to get it wrong? And no, not the same coaching staff. Look it up if you are not just fishing (which admittedly is highly probable).
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Absolutely. If I remember correctly, Henry was Heimerdinger's hand-picked running back. Oops
Michael Fox Fan
Footballguy
Seems weird given that Norm Chow was the offensive coordinator last year.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Only time will tell how good the kid is going to be. I personally think he has a pretty good shot to be pretty aweful good after watching him play in 2 of his 3 preseasons games.
With regard to the comment that the Titans got the RB wrong with Henry. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while. The Eagles picked terrible WR after terrible WR but they seem to have gotten it right with Jackson this year.
With regard to BMI I saw a lot of stats for RB's who were successful but do you have stats for all RB's to come into the league for 10 years? It's unfair to just look at the guys who were successful. There could be just as many guys who came in with an ideal BMI who were busts. While it may be more likely that guys with a BMI in a certain range will be successful it is entirely possible for guys without that BMI to be successful. Unless you are looking at a complete picture the stats don't mean a lot to me at least.
I looked at the other set of calculations people use for calculating RB success, weight and 40 time. When I did it I took the time to go back and enter every player who was drafted for from 1999 on as well as any others I could find that were consider for each draft class. That produced some interesting results. The ideal number for the calculation [(weight*200)/(40 time^4)] is 112 or above. It turns out the hit rate for RB's in that range is pretty high, 60-70% depending on where the number falls. Also turns out that most RB's that are successful in the NFL are in the 220-240 weight range. There are notable exceptions. But even looking at the exceptions a trend emerges, a trend named 40 yard dash time. Every guy who was not the sweet spot for weight range and has been successful has one thing in common: they are exceptionally fast.
Basically if you are fast you will stick in one capacity or another. The percentages for fast guys sticking in the NFL are very high.
Interesting to note that of the 25 or so fastest guys to run the 40 at RB in the combine over the last 10 years 95% are still in the league as 1 or 2 backs and at least 50% of them are starters or were very good starters. Biggest bust by far was Jay Hinton. Other than that there are not many guys you can call complete failures.
The guys I would be worried about in this draft are Ray Rice and Steve Slaton. They are fairly identical and according to what I have seen hit or miss prospects. Both around 200 pounds and neither is lightening in a bottle.
To me this all means that Johnson rates out as the 4-5 best prospect in the draft. What else do you want from him? Would I take him in front of Stewart, Mendenhall or McFadden? No. Given their size, speed and pedigree they are less risky options and the name of the game is minimizing risk. For the record Johnson is in the group number wise but all indicators are that all three of those guys will be productive contributors on their respective teams.
Would I take him before anyone else? A very definite yes. His upside is tremendous and I don not think he is any riskier than any of the other guys for a variety of reasons. I have bought into the hype. i traded up in a recent dynasty draft to get him at 1.06 and I don't think I will regret. Hell the guy may not turn out to be the next great thing but the numbers say he sticks around and is at worst a number two back getting 10-15 touches a game with the chance to start somewhere when the starter goes down. Of all of the guys the only other guy I would consider before Johnson is Forte but probably not.
The other thing that I have seen a few people mention but that seems to be under emphasized is the amount the Titans will run. they ran the most in the NFL last year. Probably will again this year. Even if he is not the number one he will get a lot of touches as a runner and a receiver. Coaches are supportive and he will get a lot of chances. Titans run game was top 5 last year as someone mentioned even with terrible passing game. Opportunity is a huge factor in the success of a player and johnson will get it.
One other thing to note about the numbers, the higher the guy was drafted and the higher his number the more likely he made it in the NFL. I attribute this to having good physical tools and good football skill. Johnson passes both those test.
If anyone has done extensive BMI research I would be interested in talking with you. I think it would be neat to combine the results from a BMI study of all RB's drafted or undrafted guys who have played for the last 10 years to the 40 and weight numbers. Contact me if you are interested in exchanging results.
With regard to the comment that the Titans got the RB wrong with Henry. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while. The Eagles picked terrible WR after terrible WR but they seem to have gotten it right with Jackson this year.
With regard to BMI I saw a lot of stats for RB's who were successful but do you have stats for all RB's to come into the league for 10 years? It's unfair to just look at the guys who were successful. There could be just as many guys who came in with an ideal BMI who were busts. While it may be more likely that guys with a BMI in a certain range will be successful it is entirely possible for guys without that BMI to be successful. Unless you are looking at a complete picture the stats don't mean a lot to me at least.
I looked at the other set of calculations people use for calculating RB success, weight and 40 time. When I did it I took the time to go back and enter every player who was drafted for from 1999 on as well as any others I could find that were consider for each draft class. That produced some interesting results. The ideal number for the calculation [(weight*200)/(40 time^4)] is 112 or above. It turns out the hit rate for RB's in that range is pretty high, 60-70% depending on where the number falls. Also turns out that most RB's that are successful in the NFL are in the 220-240 weight range. There are notable exceptions. But even looking at the exceptions a trend emerges, a trend named 40 yard dash time. Every guy who was not the sweet spot for weight range and has been successful has one thing in common: they are exceptionally fast.
Basically if you are fast you will stick in one capacity or another. The percentages for fast guys sticking in the NFL are very high.
Interesting to note that of the 25 or so fastest guys to run the 40 at RB in the combine over the last 10 years 95% are still in the league as 1 or 2 backs and at least 50% of them are starters or were very good starters. Biggest bust by far was Jay Hinton. Other than that there are not many guys you can call complete failures.
The guys I would be worried about in this draft are Ray Rice and Steve Slaton. They are fairly identical and according to what I have seen hit or miss prospects. Both around 200 pounds and neither is lightening in a bottle.
To me this all means that Johnson rates out as the 4-5 best prospect in the draft. What else do you want from him? Would I take him in front of Stewart, Mendenhall or McFadden? No. Given their size, speed and pedigree they are less risky options and the name of the game is minimizing risk. For the record Johnson is in the group number wise but all indicators are that all three of those guys will be productive contributors on their respective teams.
Would I take him before anyone else? A very definite yes. His upside is tremendous and I don not think he is any riskier than any of the other guys for a variety of reasons. I have bought into the hype. i traded up in a recent dynasty draft to get him at 1.06 and I don't think I will regret. Hell the guy may not turn out to be the next great thing but the numbers say he sticks around and is at worst a number two back getting 10-15 touches a game with the chance to start somewhere when the starter goes down. Of all of the guys the only other guy I would consider before Johnson is Forte but probably not.
The other thing that I have seen a few people mention but that seems to be under emphasized is the amount the Titans will run. they ran the most in the NFL last year. Probably will again this year. Even if he is not the number one he will get a lot of touches as a runner and a receiver. Coaches are supportive and he will get a lot of chances. Titans run game was top 5 last year as someone mentioned even with terrible passing game. Opportunity is a huge factor in the success of a player and johnson will get it.
One other thing to note about the numbers, the higher the guy was drafted and the higher his number the more likely he made it in the NFL. I attribute this to having good physical tools and good football skill. Johnson passes both those test.
If anyone has done extensive BMI research I would be interested in talking with you. I think it would be neat to combine the results from a BMI study of all RB's drafted or undrafted guys who have played for the last 10 years to the 40 and weight numbers. Contact me if you are interested in exchanging results.
Last edited by a moderator:
Das Boot
Footballguy
What were you saying then?
FUBAR
Footballguy
It's huckleberry, he won't be convinced of CJ3's talent until he's in Canton.
Arnold. S
Footballguy
hate hate hate hate hate hate
Ketamine Dreams
Footballguy
I've been drinking the Kool-Aid pretty hard in redrafts. His value has been all over the board in drafts I've been in, but he's certainly not cheap anymore. I think in PPR he should be a low #2 RB, and a great #3. Time will tell I guess. I feel like I overpaid in our auction for him and will have to depend on him to be a #2. I think that's risky for him.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
got white in the 7th today. feeling pretty good about that.
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
Left Rice and Felix on the board and took him. Plenty of groans from others wanting him. McFadden, Stewart, Smith, Mendenhall, Forte went in that order. I had no trouble leaving Felix on the board. Passing on Rice bothered me especially considering who got him, but there it is. I own him in a league where I can actually keep him. Vroooom.ETA hijack: just for what little it is worth. It's interesting how rankings we debated thoroughly around the draft change in camp. My predraft this morning looked like this:Stewart, McFadden, Johnson, Rice, Mendenhall, Forte, Jones, Smith...
Last edited by a moderator:
