The Chris Johnson Hype machine (1 Viewer)

[Todem]

We are all in this together!!!

Go Chris go!!!!!!

 

[Preds]

I just took Chris Johnson at 13.01 in my 12 team 0.5pprecption/0.25ppcarry redraft. He'll share duties in the committee for my RB2 with Graham (6.12) and Maroney (7.01). ADP (with the Chester handcuff) is my RB1.

 

[joffer]

just went at 4.12 in an Omega 20 draft i was watching

 

[george]

.

 

[Chunky Soup]

just went at 4.12 in an Omega 20 draft i was watching

That's a steal. Did Switz take him?

 

[LHUCKS]

Paid six bucks for him in a 10 team 200 cap auction...perhaps he isn't overhyped.

 

[bentley]

Paid six bucks for him in a 10 team 200 cap auction...perhaps he isn't overhyped.

I did the same in a 12 teamer last night.

 

[Burning Sensation]

just went at 4.12 in an Omega 20 draft i was watching

That's a steal. Did Switz take him?

No, he already had all the RB's he needed after getting Addai at 1.1 and Felix Jones at 2.12.

 

[switz]

just went at 4.12 in an Omega 20 draft i was watching

That's a steal. Did Switz take him?

No, he already had all the RB's he needed after getting Addai at 1.1 and Felix Jones at 2.12.

Why you have to go hating on me?

 

[Fanatics]

Drafted him yesterday at 7.02 in a 12-team redraft...White went 7 picks later.

 

[Traders2001]

just went at 4.12 in an Omega 20 draft i was watching

That's a steal. Did Switz take him?

No, he already had all the RB's he needed after getting Addai at 1.1 and Felix Jones at 2.12.

Felix Jones at 2.12 you must be kidding . He will get 5 - 7 touches a game and is nothing more then a back up .

 

[skillz]

He wasn't overvalued at all in my league last night. I gladly picked him in the 10th round of my 12 team, 2-keeper, non-PPR league. I actually took Lendale earlier in the 7th round.

The order of rookie RB's taken were McFadden, Ray Rice , Stewart, Forte, K. Smith, Mendenhall, F. Jones, C. Johnson, and then Slaton (I took him in round 12).

 

[flufhed]

From Rotoworld:

Rookie Chris Johnson "is going to play a huge role this fall, both running the ball and catching it," according to the Nashville Tennessean.

Johnson is averaging 8.8 yards per carry through two preseason games. The Tennessean thinks he may not hold up at only 5'11/197, but the Titans figure to leave most inside running to LenDale White. The ratio of overall touches could be closer to an even split. We project Johnson to catch 43 passes.

Too conservative. Gregg and I have gone back and worth about Johnson for weeks. Rotoworld should be out front on Johnson even more than they already are, but Gregg loves LenDale for some reason. I think LenDale White is exactly the kind of RB you draft if you have no interest in winning your league.

LenDale is the perfect back for the Titans offense. I'm not sure how people don't get that. He's a grinder, gets the tough yards, keeps the clock moving. He's the type of back Fisher loves. He fits that team's mentality perfectly.

Everyone, including Titans fans like me, can hate White all they want but Fish loves him and is going to give him the rock. He gave a broken down Eddie George 400 carries when George would not have started for any other team in the NFL. Chris Johnson is not going to get half of the carries, although I am very high on him.

and yes, I just drafted White. Don't really see anything wrong with drafting the clear starting RB on a team with a dominant run-blocking OL that likes to run the ball alot.

 

[pizzatyme]

12-teamer last night...

1.09 Gore

2.04 LJ

6.09 C. Johnson

League uses 3RR

Start 1 RB league with dual-flex.

 

[Todem]

From Rotoworld:

Rookie Chris Johnson "is going to play a huge role this fall, both running the ball and catching it," according to the Nashville Tennessean.

Johnson is averaging 8.8 yards per carry through two preseason games. The Tennessean thinks he may not hold up at only 5'11/197, but the Titans figure to leave most inside running to LenDale White. The ratio of overall touches could be closer to an even split. We project Johnson to catch 43 passes.

Too conservative. Gregg and I have gone back and worth about Johnson for weeks. Rotoworld should be out front on Johnson even more than they already are, but Gregg loves LenDale for some reason. I think LenDale White is exactly the kind of RB you draft if you have no interest in winning your league.

LenDale is the perfect back for the Titans offense. I'm not sure how people don't get that. He's a grinder, gets the tough yards, keeps the clock moving. He's the type of back Fisher loves. He fits that team's mentality perfectly.

Everyone, including Titans fans like me, can hate White all they want but Fish loves him and is going to give him the rock. He gave a broken down Eddie George 400 carries when George would not have started for any other team in the NFL. Chris Johnson is not going to get half of the carries, although I am very high on him.

and yes, I just drafted White. Don't really see anything wrong with drafting the clear starting RB on a team with a dominant run-blocking OL that likes to run the ball alot.

No doubt he gets 10-15 carries a game. And 3-5 receptions to boot. They are going to open this offense up. Do you really think they are going to let Lendale plod along for 25 carries at under 4.0 YPC again??? I don't think so. You don't draft this kid in the first round to sit around. This is nothing like the Steelers (taking Mendy in the first) who have a very solid RB in FWP. This is Lendale White we are talking about. Stats shmats...he sucks. No playmaking ability at all. CJ can get the tough yards. Almost everyone is totally under estimating his strength between the tackles.

Chris Johnson for the $$$$$

 

[Routilla]

Hype machine regeneration complete. Carry on.

 

[bucsbaby]

I have both White and Johnson. Here's hoping one of them, preferably Johnson, becomes a consistent top 20 fantasy RB.

 

[J R]

From Rotoworld:

Rookie Chris Johnson "is going to play a huge role this fall, both running the ball and catching it," according to the Nashville Tennessean.

Johnson is averaging 8.8 yards per carry through two preseason games. The Tennessean thinks he may not hold up at only 5'11/197, but the Titans figure to leave most inside running to LenDale White. The ratio of overall touches could be closer to an even split. We project Johnson to catch 43 passes.

Too conservative. Gregg and I have gone back and worth about Johnson for weeks. Rotoworld should be out front on Johnson even more than they already are, but Gregg loves LenDale for some reason. I think LenDale White is exactly the kind of RB you draft if you have no interest in winning your league.

LenDale is the perfect back for the Titans offense. I'm not sure how people don't get that. He's a grinder, gets the tough yards, keeps the clock moving. He's the type of back Fisher loves. He fits that team's mentality perfectly.

Everyone, including Titans fans like me, can hate White all they want but Fish loves him and is going to give him the rock. He gave a broken down Eddie George 400 carries when George would not have started for any other team in the NFL. Chris Johnson is not going to get half of the carries, although I am very high on him.

and yes, I just drafted White. Don't really see anything wrong with drafting the clear starting RB on a team with a dominant run-blocking OL that likes to run the ball alot.

If White was a "grinder" who "gets the tough yards," I think it would show up in FO's SR stat, which essentially only rewards RB for reaching a certain percentage of the down and distance, nothing over. So grinding out a 3rd & 1 for 1 yard and a first down is rewarded equal to an 80 yard run for a TD on the same play. Yet, White ranked 26th out of 49 RB with 100+ carries last year. Basically, "grinding" is about the only thing I ever see anyone say White is good at, and yet he's proven to be totally mediocre at it.

 

[OU#1]

Just burned my 8.07 pick on this guy. I hope he pans out in that dismal offense...

 

[bucsbaby]

The knock on Johnson is he doesn't have the size to be an every-down, season-long back. So where does that leave him perenially in his career? Top 10? Top 20? Top 30? Top 40?

 

[BigTex]

The knock on Johnson is he doesn't have the size to be an every-down, season-long back. So where does that leave him perenially in his career? Top 10? Top 20? Top 30? Top 40?

You've read nothing in this thread............have you?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

The knock on Johnson is he doesn't have the size to be an every-down, season-long back. So where does that leave him perenially in his career? Top 10? Top 20? Top 30? Top 40?

You've read nothing in this thread............have you?

 

[bringerofchill]

I took CJ3 at 1.05 in my 10 team dynasty rookie draft, it's a 1 ppr league. I also had the 4th pick and took Forte with that. And in my keeper league where we keep 1 player and rookie RB's tend to go a bit early I got him in the 9th round as a RB3 or 4. This league is also 1 ppr. I'm excited to have him on both teams.

 

[Burning Sensation]

just went at 4.12 in an Omega 20 draft i was watching

That's a steal. Did Switz take him?

No, he already had all the RB's he needed after getting Addai at 1.1 and Felix Jones at 2.12.

Felix Jones at 2.12 you must be kidding . He will get 5 - 7 touches a game and is nothing more then a back up .

I am kidding, i was just messing with Switz a bit.

 

[Tackling Dummies]

The knock on Johnson is he doesn't have the size to be an every-down, season-long back. So where does that leave him perenially in his career? Top 10? Top 20? Top 30? Top 40?

Marshall Faulk 5'10" 211lbPrest Holmes 5'9" 213lb

 

[Dexter Manley]

I'm officially on board the Chris Johnson Hype train. Grabbed him at 7.03 as my flex2 in a nasty 12 team.

If he doesn't pan out, is there some sort of $$$ back gurantee in this thread?

 

[Kovax]

White didn't play the last game with sore ribs. That may bode well for Johnson.

I've only seen a few highlights of CJs preseason and that is all I've seen of him - but does he have the moves to go along with his speed? Or is it more of a "straight ahead" type speed, a la Michael Bennett?

 

[Abraham]

The knock on Johnson is he doesn't have the size to be an every-down, season-long back. So where does that leave him perenially in his career? Top 10? Top 20? Top 30? Top 40?

Marshall Faulk 5'10" 211lbPrest Holmes 5'9" 213lb

Glad to see these names in here...I have the 7 in a 20 team dynasty on Monday night and hope that he or Rice is there.

 

[cmv5]

The knock on Johnson is he doesn't have the size to be an every-down, season-long back. So where does that leave him perenially in his career? Top 10? Top 20? Top 30? Top 40?

Marshall Faulk 5'10" 211lbPrest Holmes 5'9" 213lb

Are you agreeing that Johnson doesn't have the size? Because Faulk and Holmes look like bruisers at 1 and 2 inches shorter and about 13 and 15 pounds heavier, respectively.

 

[PahtyTom]

The knock on Johnson is he doesn't have the size to be an every-down, season-long back. So where does that leave him perenially in his career? Top 10? Top 20? Top 30? Top 40?

Marshall Faulk 5'10" 211lbPrest Holmes 5'9" 213lb

Glad to see these names in here...I have the 7 in a 20 team dynasty on Monday night and hope that he or Rice is there.

CJ is 5'11" 200 lbsthe 10-15 lbs is actually a pretty BIG difference

 

[EBF]

The knock on Johnson is he doesn't have the size to be an every-down, season-long back. So where does that leave him perenially in his career? Top 10? Top 20? Top 30? Top 40?

Marshall Faulk 5'10" 211lbPrest Holmes 5'9" 213lb

Glad to see these names in here...I have the 7 in a 20 team dynasty on Monday night and hope that he or Rice is there.

CJ is 5'11" 200 lbsthe 10-15 lbs is actually a pretty BIG difference

5'9" 213 is a world apart from 5'11" 197. It might not seem like a big difference, but is. Faulk and Holmes were not small backs nor were they built similarly to Johnson.

 

[Chunky Soup]

The knock on Johnson is he doesn't have the size to be an every-down, season-long back. So where does that leave him perenially in his career? Top 10? Top 20? Top 30? Top 40?

Marshall Faulk 5'10" 211lbPrest Holmes 5'9" 213lb

Glad to see these names in here...I have the 7 in a 20 team dynasty on Monday night and hope that he or Rice is there.

CJ is 5'11" 200 lbsthe 10-15 lbs is actually a pretty BIG difference

CJ 5'11" 200Clinton Portis 5'11" 205Tiki Barber 5'10" 200Warrick Dunn 5'9" 180Tony Dorsett 5'11" 192Thurman Thomas 5'10" 200And I'm sure plenty more out there. There are simply way too many exceptions to the rule to assume he can't be successful given his size.

 

[Chunky Soup]

The knock on Johnson is he doesn't have the size to be an every-down, season-long back. So where does that leave him perenially in his career? Top 10? Top 20? Top 30? Top 40?

Marshall Faulk 5'10" 211lbPrest Holmes 5'9" 213lb

Glad to see these names in here...I have the 7 in a 20 team dynasty on Monday night and hope that he or Rice is there.

CJ is 5'11" 200 lbsthe 10-15 lbs is actually a pretty BIG difference

5'9" 213 is a world apart from 5'11" 197. It might not seem like a big difference, but is. Faulk and Holmes were not small backs nor were they built similarly to Johnson.

The knock on Johnson is he doesn't have the size to be an every-down, season-long back. So where does that leave him perenially in his career? Top 10? Top 20? Top 30? Top 40?

Marshall Faulk 5'10" 211lbPrest Holmes 5'9" 213lb

Glad to see these names in here...I have the 7 in a 20 team dynasty on Monday night and hope that he or Rice is there.

CJ is 5'11" 200 lbsthe 10-15 lbs is actually a pretty BIG difference

CJ 5'11" 200Clinton Portis 5'11" 205Tiki Barber 5'10" 200Warrick Dunn 5'9" 180Tony Dorsett 5'11" 192Thurman Thomas 5'10" 200And I'm sure plenty more out there. There are simply way too many exceptions to the rule to assume he can't be successful given his size.

..let's add:Brian Westbrook 5'10" 203.

 

[Stryker]

I think Johnson could have the year similar to reggie bush or possibly even MJD in '06, with less stats, but i think picking him up in rounds 9-11 would be very nice, i like both him and lendale this year

 

[bucsbaby]

wow, i set off a whirlwind with one question

for the record, yes, i've read most of this thread, but it seems like opinions vary on both sides and after this most recent whirlwind, it still seems that way

 

[EBF]

CJ 5'11" 200

Clinton Portis 5'11" 205

Tiki Barber 5'10" 200

Warrick Dunn 5'9" 180

Tony Dorsett 5'11" 192

Thurman Thomas 5'10" 200

And I'm sure plenty more out there. There are simply way too many exceptions to the rule to assume he can't be successful given his size.

I don't think I ever said he can't be successful. However, I think his chances of developing into a 300+ touch workhorse are very low. Dorsett played in a different era when everyone was smaller. He's irrelevant.

Dunn has been a career RBBC back and I'd venture to guess that his actual height is lower than his listed height, giving him a near ideal BMI.

Tiki Barber is listed at 5'10" 205 on NFL.com. Thurman Thomas is listed at 5'10" 206 pounds. That's a big difference from 5'11" 197, even it looks trivial on paper.

Portis is one of the few top backs to gain a significant amount of weight after entering the league. He's up to 220+ now. Also, he was only 20 years old when he entered the league whereas Johnson is already 23 years old. You can't completely rule out the possibility of Johnson gaining weight, but you probably can't assume that it's going to happen. He has a thin frame. Watch him run his 40 yard dash at the combine:

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80737544

Very skinny legs. Compare that to more of a workhorse type back:

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80738aad

Night and day.

Johnson is one of the top athletes at the RB position in this class. A better athlete than Mendenhall. A better athlete than McFadden. The only other top RB prospect in this draft whose overall workout numbers compare favorably with Johnson is Stewart. So he's certainly a freakish athlete. Add that with the first round pedigree and the great training camp hype and there's cause for some excitement.

Nevertheless, I wouldn't advise overlooking his body type shortcomings. His BMI is obscenely low. I'm not sure there's a current top 30 RB in the league who was this small coming out of college. Johnson would have to gain 20 pounds to have a BMI on par with the average top 30 NFL back. I often see him compared to guys like Brian Westbrook and MJD when those comparisons really aren't warranted. Johnson would have to gain 18 pounds to have the same BMI as Westbrook and 38 pounds to have the same BMI as MJD at the same stage of their careers.

There's no way to tiptoe around the issue. He's acutely undersized compared to most successful NFL featured backs. Whether or not that affects your opinion of him is up to you. Personally, it causes me to view him as strictly a change of pace back with very low odds of becoming the type of 300+ touch RB that dominates the hobby.

 

[EBF]

Brian Westbrook 5'10" 203.

5'8.3" 200.BMI: 30.1Not similar to Johnson.

 

[Tackling Dummies]

The knock on Johnson is he doesn't have the size to be an every-down, season-long back. So where does that leave him perenially in his career? Top 10? Top 20? Top 30? Top 40?

Marshall Faulk 5'10" 211lbPriest Holmes 5'9" 213lb

Glad to see these names in here...I have the 7 in a 20 team dynasty on Monday night and hope that he or Rice is there.

CJ is 5'11" 200 lbsthe 10-15 lbs is actually a pretty BIG difference

CJ 5'11" 200Clinton Portis 5'11" 205Tiki Barber 5'10" 200Warrick Dunn 5'9" 180Tony Dorsett 5'11" 192Thurman Thomas 5'10" 200And I'm sure plenty more out there. There are simply way too many exceptions to the rule to assume he can't be successful given his size.

Put Portis, Tiki & Bush in a blender and that's my glass-half-full comp for Johnson. Two of the three were in RBBC at the early stages of their careers, so I'd expect that for a few seasons at least. The comps listed (Portis/Barber/Dunn, etc.) lack the see-you-later game changing speed that Johnson has. I'm sure that his frame could use 5 more lbs without any negative effect on his production, maybe 10. Usage wise for this season, Bush's 10-12 carries and 4-5 receptions seem reasonable for Johnson. I am also expecting extensive two back formations for the Titans and Johnson seeing on nearly all 3rd down duty.

 

[jwinston2]

Brian Westbrook 5'10" 203.

5'8.3" 200.BMI: 30.1

Not similar to Johnson.

Interesting Arguments EBF but I see one huge problem with your analysis. How are you guaranteeing the accuracy of your height and weight data? For Westbrook alone you have a big discrepancy based on websites. Westbrook: 5'10", 203lbs Found at:

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/players/playerpage/302144

http://ownersedge.fanball.com/nfl/player/4325

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpag...6&sport=NFL

http://www.nfl.com/players/brianwestbrook/...le?id=WES537220

http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/conten...=Nfl&id=716

Westbrook: 5'10", 200lbs Found at:

http://www.armchairgm.com/Brian_Westbrook

Westbrook: 5'8", 205lbs Found at:

http://www.fftoday.com/articles/waldman/gc_westbrook.htm

Westbrook: 5'8", 200lbs Found at:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WestBr00.htm

So seriously how can you make your claims when you do not even know if you have accurate data sets? Do you go out on the field and measure these guys? Not trying to sound rude but I am curious as to how you know you are correct with such conflicting data.

 

[Chaos Commish]

So seriously how can you make your claims when you do not even know if you have accurate data sets? Do you go out on the field and measure these guys? Not trying to sound rude but I am curious as to how you know you are correct with such conflicting data.

EBF is using their weigh in information from their respective Combines. This is when they are most carefully weighed and measured. It is the most reliable data to work with whether you like it or not. Regarding Westbrook, you just have to look at him to know he isn't built anything like Johnson. He is built much lower with thick legs. Not that I buy into this BMI BS, but just being fair here.

 

[jwinston2]

So seriously how can you make your claims when you do not even know if you have accurate data sets? Do you go out on the field and measure these guys? Not trying to sound rude but I am curious as to how you know you are correct with such conflicting data.

EBF is using their weigh in information from their respective Combines. This is when they are most carefully weighed and measured. It is the most reliable data to work with whether you like it or not. Regarding Westbrook, you just have to look at him to know he isn't built anything like Johnson. He is built much lower with thick legs. Not that I buy into this BMI BS, but just being fair here.

Combine information from 2001 for Westbrook? I hope that is not the case. Waiting for EBF to comment.

 

[Dexter Manley]

CJ 5'11" 200

Clinton Portis 5'11" 205

Tiki Barber 5'10" 200

Warrick Dunn 5'9" 180

Tony Dorsett 5'11" 192

Thurman Thomas 5'10" 200

And I'm sure plenty more out there. There are simply way too many exceptions to the rule to assume he can't be successful given his size.

I don't think I ever said he can't be successful. However, I think his chances of developing into a 300+ touch workhorse are very low. Dorsett played in a different era when everyone was smaller. He's irrelevant.

Dunn has been a career RBBC back and I'd venture to guess that his actual height is lower than his listed height, giving him a near ideal BMI.

Tiki Barber is listed at 5'10" 205 on NFL.com. Thurman Thomas is listed at 5'10" 206 pounds. That's a big difference from 5'11" 197, even it looks trivial on paper.

Portis is one of the few top backs to gain a significant amount of weight after entering the league. He's up to 220+ now. Also, he was only 20 years old when he entered the league whereas Johnson is already 23 years old. You can't completely rule out the possibility of Johnson gaining weight, but you probably can't assume that it's going to happen. He has a thin frame. Watch him run his 40 yard dash at the combine:

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80737544

Very skinny legs. Compare that to more of a workhorse type back:

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80738aad

Night and day.

Johnson is one of the top athletes at the RB position in this class. A better athlete than Mendenhall. A better athlete than McFadden. The only other top RB prospect in this draft whose overall workout numbers compare favorably with Johnson is Stewart. So he's certainly a freakish athlete. Add that with the first round pedigree and the great training camp hype and there's cause for some excitement.

Nevertheless, I wouldn't advise overlooking his body type shortcomings. His BMI is obscenely low. I'm not sure there's a current top 30 RB in the league who was this small coming out of college. Johnson would have to gain 20 pounds to have a BMI on par with the average top 30 NFL back. I often see him compared to guys like Brian Westbrook and MJD when those comparisons really aren't warranted. Johnson would have to gain 18 pounds to have the same BMI as Westbrook and 38 pounds to have the same BMI as MJD at the same stage of their careers.

There's no way to tiptoe around the issue. He's acutely undersized compared to most successful NFL featured backs. Whether or not that affects your opinion of him is up to you. Personally, it causes me to view him as strictly a change of pace back with very low odds of becoming the type of 300+ touch RB that dominates the hobby.

The thing is, if CJ averages 5+ yards per carry, he doesn't need to get 18+ carries a game to be productive. If he gets 10 - 12 carries/game at 5 ypc, that's 50 - 60 yards rushing. Add 2 - 4 catches/game at 9 ypc, that's 18 - 36 yards receiving. Add it up for a total of 68 - 96 yards/game. That's an average of 82 total yards/game on an average of 14 touches/game which I don't think is unreasonable. Does anyone really think this kid is going to break down touching the ball an average of only 14 times a game, especially when you consider his running style and the fact he has a battering ram in Lendale White to soften up defenses for him? I don't.

 

[cmv5]

CJ 5'11" 200

Clinton Portis 5'11" 205

Tiki Barber 5'10" 200

Warrick Dunn 5'9" 180

Tony Dorsett 5'11" 192

Thurman Thomas 5'10" 200

And I'm sure plenty more out there. There are simply way too many exceptions to the rule to assume he can't be successful given his size.

I don't think I ever said he can't be successful. However, I think his chances of developing into a 300+ touch workhorse are very low. Dorsett played in a different era when everyone was smaller. He's irrelevant.

Dunn has been a career RBBC back and I'd venture to guess that his actual height is lower than his listed height, giving him a near ideal BMI.

Tiki Barber is listed at 5'10" 205 on NFL.com. Thurman Thomas is listed at 5'10" 206 pounds. That's a big difference from 5'11" 197, even it looks trivial on paper.

Portis is one of the few top backs to gain a significant amount of weight after entering the league. He's up to 220+ now. Also, he was only 20 years old when he entered the league whereas Johnson is already 23 years old. You can't completely rule out the possibility of Johnson gaining weight, but you probably can't assume that it's going to happen. He has a thin frame. Watch him run his 40 yard dash at the combine:

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80737544

Very skinny legs. Compare that to more of a workhorse type back:

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80738aad

Night and day.

Johnson is one of the top athletes at the RB position in this class. A better athlete than Mendenhall. A better athlete than McFadden. The only other top RB prospect in this draft whose overall workout numbers compare favorably with Johnson is Stewart. So he's certainly a freakish athlete. Add that with the first round pedigree and the great training camp hype and there's cause for some excitement.

Nevertheless, I wouldn't advise overlooking his body type shortcomings. His BMI is obscenely low. I'm not sure there's a current top 30 RB in the league who was this small coming out of college. Johnson would have to gain 20 pounds to have a BMI on par with the average top 30 NFL back. I often see him compared to guys like Brian Westbrook and MJD when those comparisons really aren't warranted. Johnson would have to gain 18 pounds to have the same BMI as Westbrook and 38 pounds to have the same BMI as MJD at the same stage of their careers.

There's no way to tiptoe around the issue. He's acutely undersized compared to most successful NFL featured backs. Whether or not that affects your opinion of him is up to you. Personally, it causes me to view him as strictly a change of pace back with very low odds of becoming the type of 300+ touch RB that dominates the hobby.

The thing is, if CJ averages 5+ yards per carry, he doesn't need to get 18+ carries a game to be productive. If he gets 10 - 12 carries/game at 5 ypc, that's 50 - 60 yards rushing. Add 2 - 4 catches/game at 9 ypc, that's 18 - 36 yards receiving. Add it up for a total of 68 - 96 yards/game. That's an average of 82 total yards/game on an average of 14 touches/game which I don't think is unreasonable. Does anyone really think this kid is going to break down touching the ball an average of only 14 times a game, especially when you consider his running style and the fact he has a battering ram in Lendale White to soften up defenses for him? I don't.

So his upside is Maurice Jones Drew without the goal line carries? Yep, I still feel he is overrated.

 

[EBF]

So seriously how can you make your claims when you do not even know if you have accurate data sets? Do you go out on the field and measure these guys? Not trying to sound rude but I am curious as to how you know you are correct with such conflicting data.

EBF is using their weigh in information from their respective Combines. This is when they are most carefully weighed and measured. It is the most reliable data to work with whether you like it or not. Regarding Westbrook, you just have to look at him to know he isn't built anything like Johnson. He is built much lower with thick legs. Not that I buy into this BMI BS, but just being fair here.

Combine information from 2001 for Westbrook? I hope that is not the case. Waiting for EBF to comment.

Whenever possible, I try to use height/weight info from NFL Draft Scout. Their database is the most accurate I've seen so far. It offers combine heights and weights along with actual combine and pro day results in the sprints and drills. It only spans back to 1999 though, so you won't be able to find info for guys like Tiki Barber and Fred Taylor. As for Westbrook, Draft Scout shows his combine height as 5'8.3" and Wikipedia also says he was 5'8" entering the league.

Despite his dominance in college, NFL teams were hesitant to draft him in the 2002 NFL Draft for three reasons: his small size (he listed at only 5'8", 200 lb (91 kg)),

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Westbrookhttp://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dspro...2&genpos=RB

 

[EBF]

The thing is, if CJ averages 5+ yards per carry, he doesn't need to get 18+ carries a game to be productive. If he gets 10 - 12 carries/game at 5 ypc, that's 50 - 60 yards rushing. Add 2 - 4 catches/game at 9 ypc, that's 18 - 36 yards receiving. Add it up for a total of 68 - 96 yards/game. That's an average of 82 total yards/game on an average of 14 touches/game which I don't think is unreasonable. Does anyone really think this kid is going to break down touching the ball an average of only 14 times a game, especially when you consider his running style and the fact he has a battering ram in Lendale White to soften up defenses for him? I don't.

I don't think I ever said he's worthless. My argument is that his upside is limited because of his small frame. I wouldn't consider drafting him over Mendenhall or Stewart in any format. I think Ray Rice and Felix Jones have a better chance of developing intro true NFL starters, although I think you can make a case for Johnson ahead of them in PPR leagues. Johnson is closer to Charlie Garner and Reggie Bush than he is to Brian Westbrook and Maurice Drew. That doesn't mean he can't have value, but I think people need to be realistic in their expectations. Expecting a thin 197 pound kid to overcome a decade of precedent and become a 300+ touch back is probably not realistic.

 

[Chunky Soup]

CJ 5'11" 200

Clinton Portis 5'11" 205

Tiki Barber 5'10" 200

Warrick Dunn 5'9" 180

Tony Dorsett 5'11" 192

Thurman Thomas 5'10" 200

And I'm sure plenty more out there. There are simply way too many exceptions to the rule to assume he can't be successful given his size.

I don't think I ever said he can't be successful. However, I think his chances of developing into a 300+ touch workhorse are very low. Dorsett played in a different era when everyone was smaller. He's irrelevant.

Dunn has been a career RBBC back and I'd venture to guess that his actual height is lower than his listed height, giving him a near ideal BMI.

Tiki Barber is listed at 5'10" 205 on NFL.com. Thurman Thomas is listed at 5'10" 206 pounds. That's a big difference from 5'11" 197, even it looks trivial on paper.

Portis is one of the few top backs to gain a significant amount of weight after entering the league. He's up to 220+ now. Also, he was only 20 years old when he entered the league whereas Johnson is already 23 years old. You can't completely rule out the possibility of Johnson gaining weight, but you probably can't assume that it's going to happen. He has a thin frame. Watch him run his 40 yard dash at the combine:

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80737544

Very skinny legs. Compare that to more of a workhorse type back:

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80738aad

Night and day.

Johnson is one of the top athletes at the RB position in this class. A better athlete than Mendenhall. A better athlete than McFadden. The only other top RB prospect in this draft whose overall workout numbers compare favorably with Johnson is Stewart. So he's certainly a freakish athlete. Add that with the first round pedigree and the great training camp hype and there's cause for some excitement.

Nevertheless, I wouldn't advise overlooking his body type shortcomings. His BMI is obscenely low. I'm not sure there's a current top 30 RB in the league who was this small coming out of college. Johnson would have to gain 20 pounds to have a BMI on par with the average top 30 NFL back. I often see him compared to guys like Brian Westbrook and MJD when those comparisons really aren't warranted. Johnson would have to gain 18 pounds to have the same BMI as Westbrook and 38 pounds to have the same BMI as MJD at the same stage of their careers.

There's no way to tiptoe around the issue. He's acutely undersized compared to most successful NFL featured backs. Whether or not that affects your opinion of him is up to you. Personally, it causes me to view him as strictly a change of pace back with very low odds of becoming the type of 300+ touch RB that dominates the hobby.

Ugh...Robert Smith 6'2" 212How many exceptions until you give this up? How many guys with his skils have you seen with his height and weight? How about we look at the success rate of the guys with his tangible skills, rather than the success rate of the guys his height/weight. FWIW, the sample size for both are extremely small. I don't really know what you can data mine out of this.

You wrote off Dorsett. You don't think he'd be 300+ touch back in todays game? He, apparently according to you, doens't count here.

Dunn was a 300+ touch guy, or close to it, for multiple seasons. But for some reason, according to you, he doesn't count.

You said that 5'10" 205 5'10" 206 pounds are a big difference from 5'11" 197, even it looks trivial on paper...but with the inaccuracies in the height weight, yes, they're everywhere, you really think this is a big difference?

Finally, let's say it does matter. At what point then does CJ get the consideration of a Brian Westbrook or Thurman Thomas in your book? He reaches a 29.0 BMI and all of a sudden he's OK to go? The difference is ~10 lbs that CJ has to build. Does CJ need all 10 to get to that "magic" spot you think exists? If not, whos to say he isn't already there?

This is a more number-based version of the "hes too big, hes too small" to be a RB argument. The side that wins out is the one that ignores eliminating backs based on height/weight. There are always exceptions, the trend is always changing, zones getting bigger and smaller -- this is the problem with data mining, you're always behind. You can't box players in based on their BMI, it makes no sense.

 

[jwinston2]

So seriously how can you make your claims when you do not even know if you have accurate data sets? Do you go out on the field and measure these guys? Not trying to sound rude but I am curious as to how you know you are correct with such conflicting data.

EBF is using their weigh in information from their respective Combines. This is when they are most carefully weighed and measured. It is the most reliable data to work with whether you like it or not. Regarding Westbrook, you just have to look at him to know he isn't built anything like Johnson. He is built much lower with thick legs. Not that I buy into this BMI BS, but just being fair here.

Combine information from 2001 for Westbrook? I hope that is not the case. Waiting for EBF to comment.

Whenever possible, I try to use height/weight info from NFL Draft Scout. Their database is the most accurate I've seen so far. It offers combine heights and weights along with actual combine and pro day results in the sprints and drills. It only spans back to 1999 though, so you won't be able to find info for guys like Tiki Barber and Fred Taylor. As for Westbrook, Draft Scout shows his combine height as 5'8.3" and Wikipedia also says he was 5'8" entering the league.

Despite his dominance in college, NFL teams were hesitant to draft him in the 2002 NFL Draft for three reasons: his small size (he listed at only 5'8", 200 lb (91 kg)),

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Westbrookhttp://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dspro...2&genpos=RB

Thanks for the information. Not to be harping on this but the conclusion is you are making observations and trends based on data that is incomplete. I would be wary about making statistical conclusions based on a data set which is admittedly lacking, no? Interesting but until you have actual weight and height data from players, say the start of week 1, you really can't conclude much, still neat though.

 

[BigRed]

Over 24,000 views on a Chris Johnson thread And I thought my summer had slowed down

I just don't see him as taking enough touches such that White will do much worse if at all than last year, meaning White is still a good RB3 or lower RB2 to get IMO. Johnson not worth anything except larger or maybe dynasty leagues.

 

[Todem]

BMI.....whatever.

The kid can ball!!!! That is all that matters!!!!!

CHooo Choooo!!!!

 

[cmv5]

CJ 5'11" 200

Clinton Portis 5'11" 205

Tiki Barber 5'10" 200

Warrick Dunn 5'9" 180

Tony Dorsett 5'11" 192

Thurman Thomas 5'10" 200

And I'm sure plenty more out there. There are simply way too many exceptions to the rule to assume he can't be successful given his size.

I don't think I ever said he can't be successful. However, I think his chances of developing into a 300+ touch workhorse are very low. Dorsett played in a different era when everyone was smaller. He's irrelevant.

Dunn has been a career RBBC back and I'd venture to guess that his actual height is lower than his listed height, giving him a near ideal BMI.

Tiki Barber is listed at 5'10" 205 on NFL.com. Thurman Thomas is listed at 5'10" 206 pounds. That's a big difference from 5'11" 197, even it looks trivial on paper.

Portis is one of the few top backs to gain a significant amount of weight after entering the league. He's up to 220+ now. Also, he was only 20 years old when he entered the league whereas Johnson is already 23 years old. You can't completely rule out the possibility of Johnson gaining weight, but you probably can't assume that it's going to happen. He has a thin frame. Watch him run his 40 yard dash at the combine:

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80737544

Very skinny legs. Compare that to more of a workhorse type back:

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80738aad

Night and day.

Johnson is one of the top athletes at the RB position in this class. A better athlete than Mendenhall. A better athlete than McFadden. The only other top RB prospect in this draft whose overall workout numbers compare favorably with Johnson is Stewart. So he's certainly a freakish athlete. Add that with the first round pedigree and the great training camp hype and there's cause for some excitement.

Nevertheless, I wouldn't advise overlooking his body type shortcomings. His BMI is obscenely low. I'm not sure there's a current top 30 RB in the league who was this small coming out of college. Johnson would have to gain 20 pounds to have a BMI on par with the average top 30 NFL back. I often see him compared to guys like Brian Westbrook and MJD when those comparisons really aren't warranted. Johnson would have to gain 18 pounds to have the same BMI as Westbrook and 38 pounds to have the same BMI as MJD at the same stage of their careers.

There's no way to tiptoe around the issue. He's acutely undersized compared to most successful NFL featured backs. Whether or not that affects your opinion of him is up to you. Personally, it causes me to view him as strictly a change of pace back with very low odds of becoming the type of 300+ touch RB that dominates the hobby.

Ugh...Robert Smith 6'2" 212How many exceptions until you give this up? How many guys with his skils have you seen with his height and weight? How about we look at the success rate of the guys with his tangible skills, rather than the success rate of the guys his height/weight. FWIW, the sample size for both are extremely small. I don't really know what you can data mine out of this.

You wrote off Dorsett. You don't think he'd be 300+ touch back in todays game? He, apparently according to you, doens't count here.

Dunn was a 300+ touch guy, or close to it, for multiple seasons. But for some reason, according to you, he doesn't count.

You said that 5'10" 205 5'10" 206 pounds are a big difference from 5'11" 197, even it looks trivial on paper...but with the inaccuracies in the height weight, yes, they're everywhere, you really think this is a big difference?

Finally, let's say it does matter. At what point then does CJ get the consideration of a Brian Westbrook or Thurman Thomas in your book? He reaches a 29.0 BMI and all of a sudden he's OK to go? The difference is ~10 lbs that CJ has to build. Does CJ need all 10 to get to that "magic" spot you think exists? If not, whos to say he isn't already there?

This is a more number-based version of the "hes too big, hes too small" to be a RB argument. The side that wins out is the one that ignores eliminating backs based on height/weight. There are always exceptions, the trend is always changing, zones getting bigger and smaller -- this is the problem with data mining, you're always behind. You can't box players in based on their BMI, it makes no sense.

I don't know if Robert Smith is the best example. He only had one season of 16 games played. Then he was injured all the time.

Most of the examples you give are from a different era of football. Defenses have gotten bigger and faster. I don't doubt that Chris Johnson will have an impact but I see it as a complementary back in the Jerious Norwood class.