The Chris Johnson Hype machine (1 Viewer)

[rzrback77]

I think that a single rookie RB with a thread of over 750 posts is phenomenal. This BMI discussion has got to be the debate of the summer. I will be intently watching both McFadden and Chris Johnson, both of which I own is separate dynasty leagues. I think that their skill sets are awesome and I can't wait to watch them play in the NFL.

I am hoping that they both do well. From my perspective, skills have to be more important than a height/weight factor, especially when the differences are so slight. But, maybe there is not that much of a variance in the skill sets either.

 

[Dexter Manley]

CJ 5'11" 200

Clinton Portis 5'11" 205

Tiki Barber 5'10" 200

Warrick Dunn 5'9" 180

Tony Dorsett 5'11" 192

Thurman Thomas 5'10" 200

And I'm sure plenty more out there. There are simply way too many exceptions to the rule to assume he can't be successful given his size.

I don't think I ever said he can't be successful. However, I think his chances of developing into a 300+ touch workhorse are very low. Dorsett played in a different era when everyone was smaller. He's irrelevant.

Dunn has been a career RBBC back and I'd venture to guess that his actual height is lower than his listed height, giving him a near ideal BMI.

Tiki Barber is listed at 5'10" 205 on NFL.com. Thurman Thomas is listed at 5'10" 206 pounds. That's a big difference from 5'11" 197, even it looks trivial on paper.

Portis is one of the few top backs to gain a significant amount of weight after entering the league. He's up to 220+ now. Also, he was only 20 years old when he entered the league whereas Johnson is already 23 years old. You can't completely rule out the possibility of Johnson gaining weight, but you probably can't assume that it's going to happen. He has a thin frame. Watch him run his 40 yard dash at the combine:

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80737544

Very skinny legs. Compare that to more of a workhorse type back:

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80738aad

Night and day.

Johnson is one of the top athletes at the RB position in this class. A better athlete than Mendenhall. A better athlete than McFadden. The only other top RB prospect in this draft whose overall workout numbers compare favorably with Johnson is Stewart. So he's certainly a freakish athlete. Add that with the first round pedigree and the great training camp hype and there's cause for some excitement.

Nevertheless, I wouldn't advise overlooking his body type shortcomings. His BMI is obscenely low. I'm not sure there's a current top 30 RB in the league who was this small coming out of college. Johnson would have to gain 20 pounds to have a BMI on par with the average top 30 NFL back. I often see him compared to guys like Brian Westbrook and MJD when those comparisons really aren't warranted. Johnson would have to gain 18 pounds to have the same BMI as Westbrook and 38 pounds to have the same BMI as MJD at the same stage of their careers.

There's no way to tiptoe around the issue. He's acutely undersized compared to most successful NFL featured backs. Whether or not that affects your opinion of him is up to you. Personally, it causes me to view him as strictly a change of pace back with very low odds of becoming the type of 300+ touch RB that dominates the hobby.

The thing is, if CJ averages 5+ yards per carry, he doesn't need to get 18+ carries a game to be productive. If he gets 10 - 12 carries/game at 5 ypc, that's 50 - 60 yards rushing. Add 2 - 4 catches/game at 9 ypc, that's 18 - 36 yards receiving. Add it up for a total of 68 - 96 yards/game. That's an average of 82 total yards/game on an average of 14 touches/game which I don't think is unreasonable. Does anyone really think this kid is going to break down touching the ball an average of only 14 times a game, especially when you consider his running style and the fact he has a battering ram in Lendale White to soften up defenses for him? I don't.

So his upside is Maurice Jones Drew without the goal line carries? Yep, I still feel he is overrated.

Ok, so let's say he scores 4 td's, which I think is his absolute floor, and he loses 2 fumbles. Average his total yards/game with these numbers using standard scoring, and CJ would of ranked as the #33 rb with 9.33 ppg last year, which would make him a RB3. Considering he's currently going as the 96th player (bottom of the 8th round) off the board at RB37 on average, I don't see how you can say he's overvalued. If you want to argue that he's going about where he should and is not underrated, I'll listen to your logic, but picking CJ up in the 8th round is not remotely close to a reach. Btw, I consider the #'s I've posted to be his absolute floor. It should be pretty clear by now that CJ is the Titans biggest weapon. It shouldn't surprise anyone in the know if this guy puts up good RB2 #'s this year, with an outside chance at fringe RB1 #'s.

 

[EBF]

Ugh...Robert Smith 6'2" 212How many exceptions until you give this up? How many guys with his skils have you seen with his height and weight? How about we look at the success rate of the guys with his tangible skills, rather than the success rate of the guys his height/weight. FWIW, the sample size for both are extremely small. I don't really know what you can data mine out of this.

There are lots of great athletes with Chris Johnson's dimensions. You know what we call them? Cornerbacks. The natural selection process clearly favors hybrid speed/power backs with BMI scores roughly in the 29-32 range. This is by far the most common body type among successful NFL RBs. This is not a coincidence any more than it's a coincidence that birds have wings.

You wrote off Dorsett. You don't think he'd be 300+ touch back in todays game? He, apparently according to you, doens't count here.Dunn was a 300+ touch guy, or close to it, for multiple seasons. But for some reason, according to you, he doesn't count.

RE: Dorsett - I haven't thought about it. It's irrelevant. I don't pay attention to what people did 20 years ago. The NFL is a vastly different game today. RE: Dunn - Never an elite FF back. Almost always in a full-blown RBBC. I don't believe he's actually 5'9". Lots of problems there.

You said that 5'10" 205 5'10" 206 pounds are a big difference from 5'11" 197, even it looks trivial on paper...but with the inaccuracies in the height weight, yes, they're everywhere, you really think this is a big difference?

I think players are more likely to exaggerate their height than downplay it, so I think the actual BMI for guys like Barber and Thomas would actually be even higher than their listed height/weight would indicate. Like I said, I generally try to use combine data whenever possible to get the most accurate results. I posted a full list with the BMI of the top 30 RBs in my PPR league based on their actual combine height/weight. The average BMI worked out to be exactly the same as when I calculated it using listed sizes. So any differences appear to be pretty negligible on average.

Finally, let's say it does matter. At what point then does CJ get the consideration of a Brian Westbrook or Thurman Thomas in your book? He reaches a 29.0 BMI and all of a sudden he's OK to go? The difference is ~10 lbs that CJ has to build. Does CJ need all 10 to get to that "magic" spot you think exists? If not, whos to say he isn't already there?

The closer he is to the 29-32 BMI sweet spot, the more comfortable I'd be. It gets tricky on the border. Someone like Felix Jones is barely big enough to be considered ideal whereas someone like Jonathan Stewart might actually be a little too big. That's why I only use BMI as one part of my analysis in all but the most extreme cases. It's not usually the deciding factor. It's just one factor of many.In the case of Chris Johnson, I think his size problem is so severe that he probably won't ever be a true workhorse at the pro level.

This is a more number-based version of the "hes too big, hes too small" to be a RB argument. The side that wins out is the one that ignores eliminating backs based on height/weight. There are always exceptions, the trend is always changing, zones getting bigger and smaller -- this is the problem with data mining, you're always behind. You can't box players in based on their BMI, it makes no sense.

Let me ask you this:If size is irrelevant, why are there no successful 6'3" 200 pound running backs in the NFL?Size is not irrelevant. Function follows form. The RB position requires certain functions. These functions are most commonly found in a particular physical form. The reason people are often wrong about someone being "too small" is because they look at height instead of body mass. When you look at BMI, most of those "small" backs are actually just as big as the bigger backs. MJD is actually a big back. Brian Westbrook, Barry Sanders, and Priest Holmes actually have ideal size. The media mistakenly confuses "short" with "small" because they only look at height and weight without considering body thickness. You might be right that the game is changing. Based on a blog post that Chase Stuart did on the topic of BMI, it looks like backs are actually getting heavier and the average BMI is actually rising. IMO this is just natural selection at work. A compact RB with high body thickness is most likely to survive.

 

[Chunky Soup]

I don't know if Robert Smith is the best example. He only had one season of 16 games played. Then he was injured all the time. Most of the examples you give are from a different era of football. Defenses have gotten bigger and faster. I don't doubt that Chris Johnson will have an impact but I see it as a complementary back in the Jerious Norwood class.

Clinton Portis was 5'11" 200 until after his first year in WAS:

Despite the ballyhooed trade engineered by Coach Joe Gibbs, Portis, who weighed about 200 pounds all season, looked out of place and misused in a Gibbs system designed for a bigger power runner.

(nytimes)And Warrick Dunn:

Florida State running back Warrick Dunn wasn't expected to go very high in the first round. Many people thought his size (5 feet 8 inches, 176 pounds) might be a problem for him in the draft and that he wouldn't make a durable back in the National Football League.

(nytimes)And since the system doesn't go back far enough to trust, or in EBFs words renders them irrelevant, the system is truly irrelevant.

 

[Abraham]

In the case of Chris Johnson, I think his size problem is so severe that he probably won't ever be a true workhorse at the pro level.

I agree completely. BUt much as you have referenced that the NFL game has changed a lot, I think such change works in Johnson's favor. Having a player like him carry the ball 300 times would be a disaster. Having him carry it 150 times and receive 65 targets allows him to have significant upside and potential as a FF selection. Being an every down back and being a quality fantasy football player are not mutually exclusive.

 

[EBF]

In the case of Chris Johnson, I think his size problem is so severe that he probably won't ever be a true workhorse at the pro level.

I agree completely. BUt much as you have referenced that the NFL game has changed a lot, I think such change works in Johnson's favor. Having a player like him carry the ball 300 times would be a disaster. Having him carry it 150 times and receive 65 targets allows him to have significant upside and potential as a FF selection. Being an every down back and being a quality fantasy football player are not mutually exclusive.

I agree completely.

 

[EBF]

I don't know if Robert Smith is the best example. He only had one season of 16 games played. Then he was injured all the time. Most of the examples you give are from a different era of football. Defenses have gotten bigger and faster. I don't doubt that Chris Johnson will have an impact but I see it as a complementary back in the Jerious Norwood class.

Clinton Portis was 5'11" 200 until after his first year in WAS:

Despite the ballyhooed trade engineered by Coach Joe Gibbs, Portis, who weighed about 200 pounds all season, looked out of place and misused in a Gibbs system designed for a bigger power runner.

(nytimes)And Warrick Dunn:

Florida State running back Warrick Dunn wasn't expected to go very high in the first round. Many people thought his size (5 feet 8 inches, 176 pounds) might be a problem for him in the draft and that he wouldn't make a durable back in the National Football League.

(nytimes)And since the system doesn't go back far enough to trust, or in EBFs words renders them irrelevant, the system is truly irrelevant.

Portis is ONE GUY. An exception, not a rule. For every Portis I can give you ten guys who didn't pack on a huge amount of weight after entering the league. If Chris Johnson somehow gains 25 pounds of muscle then I'll be pretty excited about his prospects. I find that scenario highly unlikely. As for Dunn, he has never been a stud FF back. His best seasons don't compare to the best seasons by high BMI backs in the same era. I don't see him as evidence against the importance of BMI, but rather as an example of why small backs offer limited FF potential compared to big backs.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Anybody else feel like they are in the twilight zone? New page, same discussion points for 16 pages.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I hope alot of people use this BMI theory in my dynasty leagues. Actually it already is working as one guy in my league took RM with the 1.1, leaving me Mcfadden and Stewart with the 1.2 and 1.3 picks. It kind of reminds me of peope letting the short WR's slide in two initial dynasty drafts ~5 years ago, allowing me to get Steve Smith and Santana Moss, because they were Prototypical size. BMI means so little compared to speed, strength, talent, heart, etc. A football player is a football player, and to dismiss a player because he is a few lb's lighter than what what someone deems as an ideal BMI is crazy in my opinion.

I'm not even sure why i am arguing the point, i love that there are people out there that are actually buying into it. I am officially done doing so at this point, Well, that is until the 2008 season when guys like Darren Mcfadden and Chris Johnson are outplaying Rashard Mendenhall and Tashard Choice. I left off James Stewart because i think he is an ultra talented back, not because of his BMI.

 

[Chunky Soup]

People have beaten to death the other arguments. People who dismiss backs, or players, simply because they don't conform to the previous success' are bound to lose out at some point. Again, how many times has a back like CJ come out? size/weight + talent? Not many. Why are you looking at the track record of his height/weight rather than the track record of his performance?

Let me ask you this:If size is irrelevant, why are there no successful 6'3" 200 pound running backs in the NFL?Size is not irrelevant. Function follows form. The RB position requires certain functions. These functions are most commonly found in a particular physical form.

However, let me comment on this, because it is exactly what I'm talking about. If a 6'3" 200 guy came out wtih CJs track record (combine + college career + etc) then he should warrant a lot of attention. Have you seen a 6'3" 200 guy with CJs skills and track record? No. When/if you do, you should take notice.

 

[MSULions]

Anybody else feel like they are in the twilight zone? New page, same discussion points for 16 pages.

Lord knows i've posted some stupid crap here, but eesh. i keep staying away from this but it keeps being on the first page and every few days I peek in to see if there's any actual worthwhile information. nope....just page after page of idiotic moranic BMI debating about a rookie who hasn't played yet. The kid is fast, he's pretty good, but time will tell how many carries he can get with Lendale going #1. that's it. [/thread]

 

[Chunky Soup]

I don't know if Robert Smith is the best example. He only had one season of 16 games played. Then he was injured all the time. Most of the examples you give are from a different era of football. Defenses have gotten bigger and faster. I don't doubt that Chris Johnson will have an impact but I see it as a complementary back in the Jerious Norwood class.

Clinton Portis was 5'11" 200 until after his first year in WAS:

Despite the ballyhooed trade engineered by Coach Joe Gibbs, Portis, who weighed about 200 pounds all season, looked out of place and misused in a Gibbs system designed for a bigger power runner.

(nytimes)And Warrick Dunn:

Florida State running back Warrick Dunn wasn't expected to go very high in the first round. Many people thought his size (5 feet 8 inches, 176 pounds) might be a problem for him in the draft and that he wouldn't make a durable back in the National Football League.

(nytimes)And since the system doesn't go back far enough to trust, or in EBFs words renders them irrelevant, the system is truly irrelevant.

Portis is ONE GUY. An exception, not a rule. For every Portis I can give you ten guys who didn't pack on a huge amount of weight after entering the league. If Chris Johnson somehow gains 25 pounds of muscle then I'll be pretty excited about his prospects. I find that scenario highly unlikely. As for Dunn, he has never been a stud FF back. His best seasons don't compare to the best seasons by high BMI backs in the same era. I don't see him as evidence against the importance of BMI, but rather as an example of why small backs offer limited FF potential compared to big backs.

Portis did it before gaining the weight. In fact, you might argue he was better before doing so. How many guys with Portis/CJ size and skills busted? How many succeeded? This may have a higher success rate than guys with higher BMIs. You're picking two factors: height + weight. You're ignoring the rest. You're also ignoring other factors that could be going on here.I think the Ron Dayne hype threads needs to be started. He had a good BMI. Actually, so did probably almost every back that has busted in the NFL. At least the ones that were expected to be 300+ touch guys.

 

[Abraham]

As for Dunn, he has never been a stud FF back.

I suppose it's splitting hairs because Dunn was never a "stud", but he has been a top-24 back (RB2 or better) in 9 of 11 seasons with the only exception being last year (older, bad team) and the season he got hurt. However, more relevant to the BMI discussion is the fact that Dunn was a useful RB choice (remember, RB2 or better) and despite his small size and low BMI he has played in 165 of a possible 176 games in his career. His best seasons may not compare to the high BMI backs of the same era, but at least he was able to play most every game.

 

[Chunky Soup]

Anybody else feel like they are in the twilight zone? New page, same discussion points for 16 pages.

Lord knows i've posted some stupid crap here, but eesh. i keep staying away from this but it keeps being on the first page and every few days I peek in to see if there's any actual worthwhile information. nope....just page after page of idiotic moranic BMI debating about a rookie who hasn't played yet. The kid is fast, he's pretty good, but time will tell how many carries he can get with Lendale going #1. that's it. [/thread]

Sorry for the splatter in the hype train. I'm done, although will be pulling my hair out with every BMI post I see.

 

[Todem]

I don't know if Robert Smith is the best example. He only had one season of 16 games played. Then he was injured all the time.

Most of the examples you give are from a different era of football. Defenses have gotten bigger and faster. I don't doubt that Chris Johnson will have an impact but I see it as a complementary back in the Jerious Norwood class.

These are the things that make me LOL. I also scouted Norwood when he was rookie. I watched the kid play every pre-season snap I could and watched every game he played as a rook. It was so apparent after his rookie season that he did not have the talent to be a very good NFL RB. He is a true COP/specialist that can be lighting in a bottle but could never get more than say 5-7 touches a game.

On the other hand wathcing Chris Johnson, it is so apparent that he has "it". He has the talent and agility to be a very good productive RB and touch theball 15-20 times a game.

If you are comparing him to Norwood....I really don't know what game your watching. They are 2 totally different backs. The true key to fantasy football is not reading box scores, height,weight and making spread sheets. It is watching the games, and paying very close attention to the players and what they can show you as far as pure football skills, and playing at the NFL level and speed of the game.

Chris Johnson is a special player. I have seen very few RB's in my life that can change direction and not lose their momentum. That is a rare g-d given gift that the very best RB's have. Some RB's who have not made it have also had that skill but never followed through with other areas of their game. Johnson has many things going for him

1) Can change direction and accelerate while doing it

2) is strong betwen the tackles for a guy of his size and build

3) is a very quick learner, a student of the game

4) has good hands

5) once in the second level.....wave bye bye.

Go Chris go!!!!!!

On a side not Lendale White will not be able to keep this kid off the field....OMG that is for sure.

 

[EBF]

I hope alot of people use this BMI theory in my dynasty leagues. Actually it already is working as one guy in my league took RM with the 1.1, leaving me Mcfadden and Stewart with the 1.2 and 1.3 picks. It kind of reminds me of peope letting the short WR's slide in two initial dynasty drafts ~5 years ago, allowing me to get Steve Smith and Santana Moss, because they were Prototypical size. BMI means so little compared to speed, strength, talent, heart, etc. A football player is a football player, and to dismiss a player because he is a few lb's lighter than what what someone deems as an ideal BMI is crazy in my opinion.

I'm not even sure why i am arguing the point, i love that there are people out there that are actually buying into it. I am officially done doing so at this point, Well, that is until the 2008 season when guys like Darren Mcfadden and Chris Johnson are outplaying Rashard Mendenhall and Tashard Choice. I left off James Stewart because i think he is an ultra talented back, not because of his BMI.

That BMI is relevant is common sense. To me it's just as obvious as the fact that height is relevant in basketball. Height doesn't make you a great basketball player, but most of the best basketball players are tall and a taller player will always be preferred over a smaller player with identical skills.The NFL is getting wider just like the NBA is getting taller. This year will offer a great litmus test regarding the importance of BMI. We have a handful of elite low BMI prospects entering the league alongside a handful of elite high BMI prospects. We can split them into two groups:

High BMI

Jonathan Stewart

Rashard Mendenhall

Ray Rice

Low BMI

Darren McFadden

Chris Johnson

Jamaal Charles

Each group features two first round picks and one guy who was picked in the 50-90 range. This is a small sample size, but just for kicks, I hope someone will bookmark this post and bump it a few years from now. I suspect the high BMI backs will collectively have much better career numbers than the low BMI backs.

 

[cmv5]

CJ 5'11" 200

Clinton Portis 5'11" 205

Tiki Barber 5'10" 200

Warrick Dunn 5'9" 180

Tony Dorsett 5'11" 192

Thurman Thomas 5'10" 200

And I'm sure plenty more out there. There are simply way too many exceptions to the rule to assume he can't be successful given his size.

I don't think I ever said he can't be successful. However, I think his chances of developing into a 300+ touch workhorse are very low. Dorsett played in a different era when everyone was smaller. He's irrelevant.

Dunn has been a career RBBC back and I'd venture to guess that his actual height is lower than his listed height, giving him a near ideal BMI.

Tiki Barber is listed at 5'10" 205 on NFL.com. Thurman Thomas is listed at 5'10" 206 pounds. That's a big difference from 5'11" 197, even it looks trivial on paper.

Portis is one of the few top backs to gain a significant amount of weight after entering the league. He's up to 220+ now. Also, he was only 20 years old when he entered the league whereas Johnson is already 23 years old. You can't completely rule out the possibility of Johnson gaining weight, but you probably can't assume that it's going to happen. He has a thin frame. Watch him run his 40 yard dash at the combine:

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80737544

Very skinny legs. Compare that to more of a workhorse type back:

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80738aad

Night and day.

Johnson is one of the top athletes at the RB position in this class. A better athlete than Mendenhall. A better athlete than McFadden. The only other top RB prospect in this draft whose overall workout numbers compare favorably with Johnson is Stewart. So he's certainly a freakish athlete. Add that with the first round pedigree and the great training camp hype and there's cause for some excitement.

Nevertheless, I wouldn't advise overlooking his body type shortcomings. His BMI is obscenely low. I'm not sure there's a current top 30 RB in the league who was this small coming out of college. Johnson would have to gain 20 pounds to have a BMI on par with the average top 30 NFL back. I often see him compared to guys like Brian Westbrook and MJD when those comparisons really aren't warranted. Johnson would have to gain 18 pounds to have the same BMI as Westbrook and 38 pounds to have the same BMI as MJD at the same stage of their careers.

There's no way to tiptoe around the issue. He's acutely undersized compared to most successful NFL featured backs. Whether or not that affects your opinion of him is up to you. Personally, it causes me to view him as strictly a change of pace back with very low odds of becoming the type of 300+ touch RB that dominates the hobby.

The thing is, if CJ averages 5+ yards per carry, he doesn't need to get 18+ carries a game to be productive. If he gets 10 - 12 carries/game at 5 ypc, that's 50 - 60 yards rushing. Add 2 - 4 catches/game at 9 ypc, that's 18 - 36 yards receiving. Add it up for a total of 68 - 96 yards/game. That's an average of 82 total yards/game on an average of 14 touches/game which I don't think is unreasonable. Does anyone really think this kid is going to break down touching the ball an average of only 14 times a game, especially when you consider his running style and the fact he has a battering ram in Lendale White to soften up defenses for him? I don't.

So his upside is Maurice Jones Drew without the goal line carries? Yep, I still feel he is overrated.

Ok, so let's say he scores 4 td's, which I think is his absolute floor, and he loses 2 fumbles. Average his total yards/game with these numbers using standard scoring, and CJ would of ranked as the #33 rb with 9.33 ppg last year, which would make him a RB3. Considering he's currently going as the 96th player (bottom of the 8th round) off the board at RB37 on average, I don't see how you can say he's overvalued. If you want to argue that he's going about where he should and is not underrated, I'll listen to your logic, but picking CJ up in the 8th round is not remotely close to a reach. Btw, I consider the #'s I've posted to be his absolute floor. It should be pretty clear by now that CJ is the Titans biggest weapon. It shouldn't surprise anyone in the know if this guy puts up good RB2 #'s this year, with an outside chance at fringe RB1 #'s.

Well thought out reply, I think it is possible he could be around rb #33 and don't get me wrong, I am drafting him when I can get him at a reasonable price. I just think people have taken it from a good value level to a can't miss prospect level. All I am saying is that there are some serious obstacles for him to be what people are expecting him to be:-Low BMI, small frame, light-boned whatever people are comfortable calling him.

-He is in what I consider to be a one-dimensional offense (nobody respects the pass game) with Vince Young as his QB. This is not the Eagles, Saints, or even Jags offense at this point. VY needs to get people to respect the passing game, and this also means I don't know how capable VY would be at getting Chris Johnson anything more than dump off passes. I don't see him being used as creatively as Reggie Bush or Brian Westbrook due to VY's limitations (just my opinion) This also means less opportunities compared to more prolific offenses.

-Lendale White was effective even with injury and if Fisher was comfortable letting Eddie George get over 300 carries with a 3.7 ypc, then Lendale is fine this year barring injury.

-Lendale White will take the goal line carries and when he doesn't, VY will.

 

[Chunky Soup]

I hope alot of people use this BMI theory in my dynasty leagues. Actually it already is working as one guy in my league took RM with the 1.1, leaving me Mcfadden and Stewart with the 1.2 and 1.3 picks. It kind of reminds me of peope letting the short WR's slide in two initial dynasty drafts ~5 years ago, allowing me to get Steve Smith and Santana Moss, because they were Prototypical size. BMI means so little compared to speed, strength, talent, heart, etc. A football player is a football player, and to dismiss a player because he is a few lb's lighter than what what someone deems as an ideal BMI is crazy in my opinion.

I'm not even sure why i am arguing the point, i love that there are people out there that are actually buying into it. I am officially done doing so at this point, Well, that is until the 2008 season when guys like Darren Mcfadden and Chris Johnson are outplaying Rashard Mendenhall and Tashard Choice. I left off James Stewart because i think he is an ultra talented back, not because of his BMI.

That BMI is relevant is common sense. To me it's just as obvious as the fact that height is relevant in basketball. Height doesn't make you a great basketball player, but most of the best basketball players are tall and a taller player will always be preferred over a smaller player with identical skills.The NFL is getting wider just like the NBA is getting taller. This year will offer a great litmus test regarding the importance of BMI. We have a handful of elite low BMI prospects entering the league alongside a handful of elite high BMI prospects. We can split them into two groups:

High BMI

Jonathan Stewart

Rashard Mendenhall

Ray Rice

Low BMI

Darren McFadden

Chris Johnson

Jamaal Charles

Each group features two first round picks and one guy who was picked in the 50-90 range. This is a small sample size, but just for kicks, I hope someone will bookmark this post and bump it a few years from now. I suspect the high BMI backs will collectively have much better career numbers than the low BMI backs.

A total sample size of 6

 

[cmv5]

I hope alot of people use this BMI theory in my dynasty leagues. Actually it already is working as one guy in my league took RM with the 1.1, leaving me Mcfadden and Stewart with the 1.2 and 1.3 picks. It kind of reminds me of peope letting the short WR's slide in two initial dynasty drafts ~5 years ago, allowing me to get Steve Smith and Santana Moss, because they were Prototypical size. BMI means so little compared to speed, strength, talent, heart, etc. A football player is a football player, and to dismiss a player because he is a few lb's lighter than what what someone deems as an ideal BMI is crazy in my opinion.I'm not even sure why i am arguing the point, i love that there are people out there that are actually buying into it. I am officially done doing so at this point, Well, that is until the 2008 season when guys like Darren Mcfadden and Chris Johnson are outplaying Rashard Mendenhall and Tashard Choice. I left off James Stewart because i think he is an ultra talented back, not because of his BMI.

And if you are honest about things what has Steve Smith and Santana Moss done? Steve Smith has one great season. Same with Santana Moss. I don't have one problem with James Stewart and BMI is only one factor, albeit an important one when I consider Chris Johnson's chances for success.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I hope alot of people use this BMI theory in my dynasty leagues. Actually it already is working as one guy in my league took RM with the 1.1, leaving me Mcfadden and Stewart with the 1.2 and 1.3 picks. It kind of reminds me of peope letting the short WR's slide in two initial dynasty drafts ~5 years ago, allowing me to get Steve Smith and Santana Moss, because they were Prototypical size. BMI means so little compared to speed, strength, talent, heart, etc. A football player is a football player, and to dismiss a player because he is a few lb's lighter than what what someone deems as an ideal BMI is crazy in my opinion.

I'm not even sure why i am arguing the point, i love that there are people out there that are actually buying into it. I am officially done doing so at this point, Well, that is until the 2008 season when guys like Darren Mcfadden and Chris Johnson are outplaying Rashard Mendenhall and Tashard Choice. I left off James Stewart because i think he is an ultra talented back, not because of his BMI.

That BMI is relevant is common sense. To me it's just as obvious as the fact that height is relevant in basketball. Height doesn't make you a great basketball player, but most of the best basketball players are tall and a taller player will always be preferred over a smaller player with identical skills.The NFL is getting wider just like the NBA is getting taller. This year will offer a great litmus test regarding the importance of BMI. We have a handful of elite low BMI prospects entering the league alongside a handful of elite high BMI prospects. We can split them into two groups:

High BMI

Jonathan Stewart

Rashard Mendenhall

Ray Rice

Low BMI

Darren McFadden

Chris Johnson

Jamaal Charles

Each group features two first round picks and one guy who was picked in the 50-90 range. This is a small sample size, but just for kicks, I hope someone will bookmark this post and bump it a few years from now. I suspect the high BMI backs will collectively have much better career numbers than the low BMI backs.

Knock off Jamal Charles and Ray Rice and i would bet that the two high BMI guys dont significantly outperform the low BMI guys. I do prefer Stewart to Chris Johnson, but i think the difference between Mcfadden and Mendenhall will be significant enough to give the egde to the low BMI guys.As far as bookmarking, i will be bumping every thread in which you said Mendenhall would be better tha DMac every week for the rest of their careers. I have NO DOUBT that RM will not be as good as Mcfadden, and it shouldnt take more than a year or two for that to become obvious.

 

[EBF]

However, let me comment on this, because it is exactly what I'm talking about. If a 6'3" 200 guy came out wtih CJs track record (combine + college career + etc) then he should warrant a lot of attention. Have you seen a 6'3" 200 guy with CJs skills and track record? No. When/if you do, you should take notice.

Those athletes exist. They don't play RB because the position demands a different body type. Calvin Johnson, Mario Williams, and Pac Man Jones have comparable athleticism to Johnson. Yet they don't play RB. This is not a coincidence. If you're under 6' and 190 pounds, you're a CB or WR. If you're over 6'3" and 250 pounds, you're a TE or a DE. If you're 200-240 pounds and stocky then you play RB, LB, or possibly S. Different positions demand different functions. Certain body types are better equipped to provide those functions than others. Thus you will never see a 180 pound MLB in the NFL no matter how athletic. By and large, body type dictates the position you play. The RB position clearly has a preference for stocky, quick backs with BMI scores of 29+. This tells me that it makes sense to be wary of backs who don't fit this mold. I'm wary of Chris Johnson for the same reason I'd be wary of a 180 pound MLB no matter how high he was picked (although that's admittedly a far more extreme example). If you're 180 pounds, you are not a MLB. If you're 197 pounds and thin, you're probably not a RB.

 

[EBF]

As far as bookmarking, i will be bumping every thread in which you said Mendenhall would be better tha DMac every week for the rest of their careers. I have NO DOUBT that RM will not be as good as Mcfadden, and it shouldnt take more than a year or two for that to become obvious.

 

[Kit Fisto]

In the case of Chris Johnson, I think his size problem is so severe that he probably won't ever be a true workhorse at the pro level.

I agree completely. BUt much as you have referenced that the NFL game has changed a lot, I think such change works in Johnson's favor. Having a player like him carry the ball 300 times would be a disaster. Having him carry it 150 times and receive 65 targets allows him to have significant upside and potential as a FF selection. Being an every down back and being a quality fantasy football player are not mutually exclusive.

Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding!

Winner-winner, chicken dinner!

 

[Burning Sensation]

As far as bookmarking, i will be bumping every thread in which you said Mendenhall would be better tha DMac every week for the rest of their careers. I have NO DOUBT that RM will not be as good as Mcfadden, and it shouldnt take more than a year or two for that to become obvious.

This is going to be better than the time i you in the Kevin Barlow thread.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I hope alot of people use this BMI theory in my dynasty leagues. Actually it already is working as one guy in my league took RM with the 1.1, leaving me Mcfadden and Stewart with the 1.2 and 1.3 picks. It kind of reminds me of peope letting the short WR's slide in two initial dynasty drafts ~5 years ago, allowing me to get Steve Smith and Santana Moss, because they were Prototypical size. BMI means so little compared to speed, strength, talent, heart, etc. A football player is a football player, and to dismiss a player because he is a few lb's lighter than what what someone deems as an ideal BMI is crazy in my opinion.

I'm not even sure why i am arguing the point, i love that there are people out there that are actually buying into it. I am officially done doing so at this point, Well, that is until the 2008 season when guys like Darren Mcfadden and Chris Johnson are outplaying Rashard Mendenhall and Tashard Choice. I left off James Stewart because i think he is an ultra talented back, not because of his BMI.

And if you are honest about things what has Steve Smith and Santana Moss done? Steve Smith has one great season. Same with Santana Moss. I don't have one problem with James Stewart and BMI is only one factor, albeit an important one when I consider Chris Johnson's chances for success.

Sanatana Moss has two seasons as a top 8 WR. In three other seasons where he missed a couple games, he would have finished near, or in the top 25.Steve Smith had one great season, and 3 other seasons of 1000+yards, 7+TD's and is a consensus top 10 dynasty WR.

Either way, they fell alot further than they should have, mostly based on their size.

I went into thse initial dynasty drafts targeting "small" WR's because they were being horribly undervalued here at FBG, and everywhere else.

Notice how far Derrick Mason fell as well, another sub 6' WR.

Here are the WR's drafted in two 2002 Zealots drafts i took part in.(im the Bills)

http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2002/o...;FRANCHISE=0000

http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2002/o...;FRANCHISE=0000

I also was able to get Brian Westbrook and Tiki Barber later than i should have because they were considered to "small" to be every down NFL RB's.

I am also not saying that size isnt beneficial to a player of any postion, but some people put WAY to much stock into it. It wasnt too long ago after Barry Sanders retired that people thought he was the exception to a RB"s height being significant. People on this board thought RB's under 5'10" were considered a long shot to be a successful NFL backs. That theory seemed to fade with guys like Westbrook, MJD, and others proving it wrong.

 

[cmv5]

I hope alot of people use this BMI theory in my dynasty leagues. Actually it already is working as one guy in my league took RM with the 1.1, leaving me Mcfadden and Stewart with the 1.2 and 1.3 picks. It kind of reminds me of peope letting the short WR's slide in two initial dynasty drafts ~5 years ago, allowing me to get Steve Smith and Santana Moss, because they were Prototypical size. BMI means so little compared to speed, strength, talent, heart, etc. A football player is a football player, and to dismiss a player because he is a few lb's lighter than what what someone deems as an ideal BMI is crazy in my opinion.

I'm not even sure why i am arguing the point, i love that there are people out there that are actually buying into it. I am officially done doing so at this point, Well, that is until the 2008 season when guys like Darren Mcfadden and Chris Johnson are outplaying Rashard Mendenhall and Tashard Choice. I left off James Stewart because i think he is an ultra talented back, not because of his BMI.

And if you are honest about things what has Steve Smith and Santana Moss done? Steve Smith has one great season. Same with Santana Moss. I don't have one problem with James Stewart and BMI is only one factor, albeit an important one when I consider Chris Johnson's chances for success.

Sanatana Moss has two seasons as a top 8 WR. In three other seasons where he missed a couple games, he would have finished near, or in the top 25.Steve Smith had one great season, and 3 other seasons of 1000+yards, 7+TD's and is a consensus top 10 dynasty WR.

Either way, they fell alot further than they should have, mostly based on their size.

I went into thse initial dynasty drafts targeting "small" WR's because they were being horribly undervalued here at FBG, and everywhere else.

Notice how far Derrick Mason fell as well, another sub 6' WR.

Here are the WR's drafted in two 2002 Zealots drafts i took part in.(im the Bills)

http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2002/o...;FRANCHISE=0000

http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2002/o...;FRANCHISE=0000

I also was able to get Brian Westbrook and Tiki Barber later than i should have because they were considered to "small" to be every down NFL RB's.

I am also not saying that size isnt beneficial to a player of any postion, but some people put WAY to much stock into it. It wasnt too long ago after Barry Sanders retired that people thought he was the exception to a RB"s height being significant. People on this board thought RB's under 5'10" were considered a long shot to be a successful NFL backs. That theory seemed to fade with guys like Westbrook, MJD, and others proving it wrong.

I can see that point. Don't get me wrong, my main argument is that I don't see them using Chris Johnson in a role where he is getting more carries than Lendale White. I too think using just BMI to assess a running back can be a little obtuse. And actually after reading Dexter Manley's post, I projected out what I think Chris Johnson's share of the pie might be. From the standpoint of Chris Johnson getting around 150-180 carries and 45-55 receptions, it is very reasonable to expect Chris Johnson to do substantially better than his ADP.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I hope alot of people use this BMI theory in my dynasty leagues. Actually it already is working as one guy in my league took RM with the 1.1, leaving me Mcfadden and Stewart with the 1.2 and 1.3 picks. It kind of reminds me of peope letting the short WR's slide in two initial dynasty drafts ~5 years ago, allowing me to get Steve Smith and Santana Moss, because they were Prototypical size. BMI means so little compared to speed, strength, talent, heart, etc. A football player is a football player, and to dismiss a player because he is a few lb's lighter than what what someone deems as an ideal BMI is crazy in my opinion.

I'm not even sure why i am arguing the point, i love that there are people out there that are actually buying into it. I am officially done doing so at this point, Well, that is until the 2008 season when guys like Darren Mcfadden and Chris Johnson are outplaying Rashard Mendenhall and Tashard Choice. I left off James Stewart because i think he is an ultra talented back, not because of his BMI.

And if you are honest about things what has Steve Smith and Santana Moss done? Steve Smith has one great season. Same with Santana Moss. I don't have one problem with James Stewart and BMI is only one factor, albeit an important one when I consider Chris Johnson's chances for success.

Sanatana Moss has two seasons as a top 8 WR. In three other seasons where he missed a couple games, he would have finished near, or in the top 25.Steve Smith had one great season, and 3 other seasons of 1000+yards, 7+TD's and is a consensus top 10 dynasty WR.

Either way, they fell alot further than they should have, mostly based on their size.

I went into thse initial dynasty drafts targeting "small" WR's because they were being horribly undervalued here at FBG, and everywhere else.

Notice how far Derrick Mason fell as well, another sub 6' WR.

Here are the WR's drafted in two 2002 Zealots drafts i took part in.(im the Bills)

http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2002/o...;FRANCHISE=0000

http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2002/o...;FRANCHISE=0000

I also was able to get Brian Westbrook and Tiki Barber later than i should have because they were considered to "small" to be every down NFL RB's.

I am also not saying that size isnt beneficial to a player of any postion, but some people put WAY to much stock into it. It wasnt too long ago after Barry Sanders retired that people thought he was the exception to a RB"s height being significant. People on this board thought RB's under 5'10" were considered a long shot to be a successful NFL backs. That theory seemed to fade with guys like Westbrook, MJD, and others proving it wrong.

I can see that point. Don't get me wrong, my main argument is that I don't see them using Chris Johnson in a role where he is getting more carries than Lendale White. I too think using just BMI to assess a running back can be a little obtuse. And actually after reading Dexter Manley's post, I projected out what I think Chris Johnson's share of the pie might be. From the standpoint of Chris Johnson getting around 150-180 carries and 45-55 receptions, it is very reasonable to expect Chris Johnson to do substantially better than his ADP.

I agree, i dont think Chris Johnson is likely to ever get 300+ carries, but it is certainly possible, as their best offensive weapon, that he gets 200+ carries, and 60+ catches. I dont think his size will prevent him form being a Tiki Barber/Brian Westbrook type player.

 

[shader]

This is a great thread to bookmark because I think Mcfadden and Johnson have the best tools in the draft by far, but have the low BMI's of the group.

They were the only two rookies I had an interest in drafting because I'm positive they'll both be superstars.

Only 2 weeks until we can start seeing this play out on the field instead of this thread.

 

[gadkins]

Height: 5'10"

Weight: 208 lbs

Marshall Faulk

Height: 5'11"

Weight: 197

Chris Johnson

Not much difference.

 

[EBF]

This is a great thread to bookmark because I think Mcfadden and Johnson have the best tools in the draft by far

Johnson's combine was sick and McFadden's wasn't half bad either, but Jonathan Stewart topped them both IMO. Here are his results and the positional rank:40 - 4.48s (10th)Vertical Jump - 36.5" (2nd)Broad Jump - 10'8" (4th)Bench Press - 28 (3rd)That's just nasty. Running 4.48 at 235 pounds with that kind of strength on the bench and explosiveness in the jumps is obscene. Johnson is definitely a freak in his own right though. 1st in the 40, 3rd in the broad jump, and 4th in the vert. The only area where he's lacking is size and strength.

 

[Chaos Commish]

This is a great thread to bookmark because I think Mcfadden and Johnson have the best tools in the draft by far

Johnson's combine was sick and McFadden's wasn't half bad either, but Jonathan Stewart topped them both IMO. Here are his results and the positional rank:40 - 4.48s (10th)

Vertical Jump - 36.5" (2nd)

Broad Jump - 10'8" (4th)

Bench Press - 28 (3rd)

That's just nasty.

He's even nastier than that. Anyone who followed him closely knows he timed sub 4.4 every year at Oregon, and the 4.48 was on a toe that needed immediate surgery. That burst up the sideline last weekend was blazing fast. No way Rice, or Mendenhall, or Smith, or Forte have that kind of juice. Not even close. I threw out that 4.48 as soon as I heard it. I think it's a shame we let someone's time on one day stick with them for their careers. Stewart is a sub 4.4 forty and I think that was on display last weekend.

 

[Burning Sensation]

This is a great thread to bookmark because I think Mcfadden and Johnson have the best tools in the draft by far

Johnson's combine was sick and McFadden's wasn't half bad either, but Jonathan Stewart topped them both IMO. Here are his results and the positional rank:40 - 4.48s (10th)Vertical Jump - 36.5" (2nd)Broad Jump - 10'8" (4th)Bench Press - 28 (3rd)That's just nasty. Running 4.48 at 235 pounds with that kind of strength on the bench and explosiveness in the jumps is obscene. Johnson is definitely a freak in his own right though. 1st in the 40, 3rd in the broad jump, and 4th in the vert. The only area where he's lacking is size and strength.

I know Chris Johnson didnt bench at the combine/pro day, but i read somewhere that he could bench 225 20+ times.Stewart is going to be a good one as well, and is clearly the #2 back in this class. I could even see an argument for the #1, but either way, the guy is a beast. I would have liked to see him run closer to 4.4 than 4.5, but he sure did look fast on that 50 yard TD run. I still think this RB class will go down as one of the best in recent memory.

 

[NajehHejan]

CHOO! CHOO! ALL ABOARD! THE TRAIN IS ABOUT TO LEAVE THE STATION!

Per Rotoworld:

Titans coach Jeff Fisher anticipates a near even split in touches between starter LenDale White and first-round pick Chris Johnson.

"I would assume it would be close to 50-50, maybe 60-40," he said. "We’re going to use them both depending on the game plans and it makes sense to take advantage of both of their abilities. I think we’ll have a better gauge once we get to the middle part of the season." The Titans could begin the year using White more, but eventually make it an even timeshare with Johnson.

With link to the Nashville Tennessean:

50-50 for Johnson-White?

Posted by JimWyatt at 8/26/2008 6:05 PM CDT

Right now, nobody knows the answer for sure.

But Coach Jeff Fisher's hunch on Tuesday was yet another sign of just how much the team plans to use rookie running back Chris Johnson this fall.

Fisher's plan for dividing carries between Johnson and LenDale White figures to put them on the field about the same amount of snaps it would appear.

"We’re going to use them both depending on the game plans and it makes sense to take advantage of both of their abilities,'' Fisher said. "I think we’ll have a better gauge once we get to the middle part of the season how the carries and the touches are going to work. Provided they’re healthy week in and week out I would assume it would be close to 50-50, maybe 60-40.''

No matter who's the 60 and who's the 40, that's more action than a lot of folks probably figured Johnson would get in his rookie season. If he's extra special, it will be interesting to see how much that number grows this fall.

Reach Jim Wyatt at 259-8015 or jwyatt@tennessean.com

I guess Fisher didn't get the memo about Johnson's low BMI?



This is GREAT news for a team that should run the ball a TON.

 

[Chunky Soup]

I guess Fisher didn't get the memo about Johnson's low BMI? This is GREAT news for a team that should run the ball a TON.

I think you should forward him all of the BMI talk in here so that he can reconsider his postion.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

at the LenDale lovers.

Like I said, he's exactly the kind of RB you draft if you have no intention of winning your league. Where is the upside? Last year, in what will go down as his best fantasy season with the Titans, he wasn't an advantage. He doesn't catch the ball, he's incredibly reliant on his defense to dominate, and his carry totals fluctuate so wildly that you're always in danger of throwing up a zero from that spot.

And now he's going to be getting closer to 12-14 carries a game, with very few receptions, and possibly an even less predictable carry total from week-to-week.

The problem was never that LenDale stinks, or that that he won't get any carries. The problem is that you're drafting a guy that has very little chance to be a consistent advantage, but very good chance to be a disadvantage weekly.

at drafting a pedestrian option with no upside simply because the carry projections from the "experts" tell you he's worth a borderline RB2 pick.

 

[rzrback77]

at the LenDale lovers.Like I said, he's exactly the kind of RB you draft if you have no intention of winning your league. Where is the upside? Last year, in what will go down as his best fantasy season with the Titans, he wasn't an advantage. He doesn't catch the ball, he's incredibly reliant on his defense to dominate, and his carry totals fluctuate so wildly that you're always in danger of throwing up a zero from that spot. And now he's going to be getting closer to 12-14 carries a game, with very few receptions, and possibly an even less predictable carry total from week-to-week.The problem was never that LenDale stinks, or that that he won't get any carries. The problem is that you're drafting a guy that has very little chance to be a consistent advantage, but very good chance to be a disadvantage weekly. :X at drafting a pedestrian option with no upside simply because the carry projections from the "experts" tell you he's worth a borderline RB2 pick.

This is definitelygoing to be one of the most watched fantasy players in the early season. I too like the athleticism of Johnson and have high hopes for him.

 

[hoochiemama]

I think the original hype could be worthy-- Sounds like he will get plenty of opportunities:

"We’re going to use them both (Johnson and LenDale White) depending on the game plans and it makes sense to take advantage of both of their abilities. I think we’ll have a better gauge once we get to the middle part of the season how the carries and the touches are going to work. Provided they’re healthy week in and week out I would assume it would be close to 50-50, maybe 60-40 (White)," Fisher said.

 

[hotlanta]

I think the original hype could be worthy-- Sounds like he will get plenty of opportunities:"We’re going to use them both (Johnson and LenDale White) depending on the game plans and it makes sense to take advantage of both of their abilities. I think we’ll have a better gauge once we get to the middle part of the season how the carries and the touches are going to work. Provided they’re healthy week in and week out I would assume it would be close to 50-50, maybe 60-40 (White)," Fisher said.

Guys, let's put this in perspective here. As much as the Titans run (they led the league in carries last year with 520), even 60% of that would be 300 carries. That coupled with 8-10 TDs (maybe more since he's the goaline back) still makes Lendale a solid #2 or even a weak #1. I see the hype, but again this happens every year in the preseason for rookies and then they are usually rarely used in the regular season (unless they walk into a starting job as Lynch was last year). I think Johnson will be a solid change of pace and maybe even third downs (because he's a better receiver), but I still see LenDale being the workhorse this year.

 

[Chunky Soup]

I think the original hype could be worthy-- Sounds like he will get plenty of opportunities:"We’re going to use them both (Johnson and LenDale White) depending on the game plans and it makes sense to take advantage of both of their abilities. I think we’ll have a better gauge once we get to the middle part of the season how the carries and the touches are going to work. Provided they’re healthy week in and week out I would assume it would be close to 50-50, maybe 60-40 (White)," Fisher said.

Guys, let's put this in perspective here. As much as the Titans run (they led the league in carries last year with 520), even 60% of that would be 300 carries. That coupled with 8-10 TDs (maybe more since he's the goaline back) still makes Lendale a solid #2 or even a weak #1. I see the hype, but again this happens every year in the preseason for rookies and then they are usually rarely used in the regular season (unless they walk into a starting job as Lynch was last year). I think Johnson will be a solid change of pace and maybe even third downs (because he's a better receiver), but I still see LenDale being the workhorse this year.

FWIW, a "workhorse back" doesn't get 50%-60% of the carries, with one other back getting 40%-50%.

 

[Bl Deep]

I think the original hype could be worthy-- Sounds like he will get plenty of opportunities:"We’re going to use them both (Johnson and LenDale White) depending on the game plans and it makes sense to take advantage of both of their abilities. I think we’ll have a better gauge once we get to the middle part of the season how the carries and the touches are going to work. Provided they’re healthy week in and week out I would assume it would be close to 50-50, maybe 60-40 (White)," Fisher said.

Guys, let's put this in perspective here. As much as the Titans run (they led the league in carries last year with 520), even 60% of that would be 300 carries. That coupled with 8-10 TDs (maybe more since he's the goaline back) still makes Lendale a solid #2 or even a weak #1. I see the hype, but again this happens every year in the preseason for rookies and then they are usually rarely used in the regular season (unless they walk into a starting job as Lynch was last year). I think Johnson will be a solid change of pace and maybe even third downs (because he's a better receiver), but I still see LenDale being the workhorse this year.

Ummm Vince Young also runs the ball...need to net out RB carries, then apply the split.

 

[hotlanta]

I think the original hype could be worthy-- Sounds like he will get plenty of opportunities:"We’re going to use them both (Johnson and LenDale White) depending on the game plans and it makes sense to take advantage of both of their abilities. I think we’ll have a better gauge once we get to the middle part of the season how the carries and the touches are going to work. Provided they’re healthy week in and week out I would assume it would be close to 50-50, maybe 60-40 (White)," Fisher said.

Guys, let's put this in perspective here. As much as the Titans run (they led the league in carries last year with 520), even 60% of that would be 300 carries. That coupled with 8-10 TDs (maybe more since he's the goaline back) still makes Lendale a solid #2 or even a weak #1. I see the hype, but again this happens every year in the preseason for rookies and then they are usually rarely used in the regular season (unless they walk into a starting job as Lynch was last year). I think Johnson will be a solid change of pace and maybe even third downs (because he's a better receiver), but I still see LenDale being the workhorse this year.

FWIW, a "workhorse back" doesn't get 50%-60% of the carries, with one other back getting 40%-50%.

50-60% on the Titans is like 70-80% on most other teams because the Titans run so much.

 

[hotlanta]

I think the original hype could be worthy-- Sounds like he will get plenty of opportunities:"We’re going to use them both (Johnson and LenDale White) depending on the game plans and it makes sense to take advantage of both of their abilities. I think we’ll have a better gauge once we get to the middle part of the season how the carries and the touches are going to work. Provided they’re healthy week in and week out I would assume it would be close to 50-50, maybe 60-40 (White)," Fisher said.

Guys, let's put this in perspective here. As much as the Titans run (they led the league in carries last year with 520), even 60% of that would be 300 carries. That coupled with 8-10 TDs (maybe more since he's the goaline back) still makes Lendale a solid #2 or even a weak #1. I see the hype, but again this happens every year in the preseason for rookies and then they are usually rarely used in the regular season (unless they walk into a starting job as Lynch was last year). I think Johnson will be a solid change of pace and maybe even third downs (because he's a better receiver), but I still see LenDale being the workhorse this year.

Ummm Vince Young also runs the ball...need to net out RB carries, then apply the split.

Good point. If you take out his 93 carries and apply 60%, that would be around 250 carries for LenDale.

 

[Chunky Soup]

I think the original hype could be worthy-- Sounds like he will get plenty of opportunities:"We’re going to use them both (Johnson and LenDale White) depending on the game plans and it makes sense to take advantage of both of their abilities. I think we’ll have a better gauge once we get to the middle part of the season how the carries and the touches are going to work. Provided they’re healthy week in and week out I would assume it would be close to 50-50, maybe 60-40 (White)," Fisher said.

Guys, let's put this in perspective here. As much as the Titans run (they led the league in carries last year with 520), even 60% of that would be 300 carries. That coupled with 8-10 TDs (maybe more since he's the goaline back) still makes Lendale a solid #2 or even a weak #1. I see the hype, but again this happens every year in the preseason for rookies and then they are usually rarely used in the regular season (unless they walk into a starting job as Lynch was last year). I think Johnson will be a solid change of pace and maybe even third downs (because he's a better receiver), but I still see LenDale being the workhorse this year.

FWIW, a "workhorse back" doesn't get 50%-60% of the carries, with one other back getting 40%-50%.

50-60% on the Titans is like 70-80% on most other teams because the Titans run so much.

Pretty sure "workhorse" is supposed to relate to the % of carries for the teams RBs, not the total number of RBs. But hey, is Chris Johnson's 40-50 percent like 60-70% on most other teams? Thats pretty close to a workhorse back.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

at the LenDale lovers.Like I said, he's exactly the kind of RB you draft if you have no intention of winning your league. Where is the upside? Last year, in what will go down as his best fantasy season with the Titans, he wasn't an advantage. He doesn't catch the ball, he's incredibly reliant on his defense to dominate, and his carry totals fluctuate so wildly that you're always in danger of throwing up a zero from that spot. And now he's going to be getting closer to 12-14 carries a game, with very few receptions, and possibly an even less predictable carry total from week-to-week.The problem was never that LenDale stinks, or that that he won't get any carries. The problem is that you're drafting a guy that has very little chance to be a consistent advantage, but very good chance to be a disadvantage weekly. :X at drafting a pedestrian option with no upside simply because the carry projections from the "experts" tell you he's worth a borderline RB2 pick.

Last year the Titans ran 543 times. 93 of those carries went to Vince Young, leaving roughly 450 carries for the RBs.If Fisher is saying that the # of "touches" is split 60-40 or 50-50, what does that imply for the number of carries? Is it THAT unreasonable to assume LW gets 2/3 of the carries? I don't think so. That gives him 300 carries, or approximately 19 per game. Right in line with last year. I fail to see how this makes him worthless.Do you expect him to get fewer than 2/3 of the RB carries? If so, why? Fisher's 60-40 or 50-50 split of touches implies that LW gets somewhere between 60-70% of carries, no? Would love to better understand why you see LW only getting 12-14 carries per game. Is Mike Martz joining as the OC?

 

[baconisgood]

I think the original hype could be worthy-- Sounds like he will get plenty of opportunities:"We’re going to use them both (Johnson and LenDale White) depending on the game plans and it makes sense to take advantage of both of their abilities. I think we’ll have a better gauge once we get to the middle part of the season how the carries and the touches are going to work. Provided they’re healthy week in and week out I would assume it would be close to 50-50, maybe 60-40 (White)," Fisher said.

Guys, let's put this in perspective here. As much as the Titans run (they led the league in carries last year with 520), even 60% of that would be 300 carries. That coupled with 8-10 TDs (maybe more since he's the goaline back) still makes Lendale a solid #2 or even a weak #1. I see the hype, but again this happens every year in the preseason for rookies and then they are usually rarely used in the regular season (unless they walk into a starting job as Lynch was last year). I think Johnson will be a solid change of pace and maybe even third downs (because he's a better receiver), but I still see LenDale being the workhorse this year.

FWIW, a "workhorse back" doesn't get 50%-60% of the carries, with one other back getting 40%-50%.

50-60% on the Titans is like 70-80% on most other teams because the Titans run so much.

Nope, try again. Average number of rushes for the league was 437, RB total rushes for Titans was 450, 13 above the average. Take away 20 or so for the QBs of the average team and you see the Titans are more like #7 or 8 in the league for RB rushes. Maybe that split is more like 55-65% on a normal team, but 60% of their RB rushes last year is 270.

 

[Chunky Soup]

at the LenDale lovers.

Like I said, he's exactly the kind of RB you draft if you have no intention of winning your league. Where is the upside? Last year, in what will go down as his best fantasy season with the Titans, he wasn't an advantage. He doesn't catch the ball, he's incredibly reliant on his defense to dominate, and his carry totals fluctuate so wildly that you're always in danger of throwing up a zero from that spot.

And now he's going to be getting closer to 12-14 carries a game, with very few receptions, and possibly an even less predictable carry total from week-to-week.

The problem was never that LenDale stinks, or that that he won't get any carries. The problem is that you're drafting a guy that has very little chance to be a consistent advantage, but very good chance to be a disadvantage weekly.

:X at drafting a pedestrian option with no upside simply because the carry projections from the "experts" tell you he's worth a borderline RB2 pick.

Last year the Titans ran 543 times. 93 of those carries went to Vince Young, leaving roughly 450 carries for the RBs.If Fisher is saying that the # of "touches" is split 60-40 or 50-50, what does that imply for the number of carries? Is it THAT unreasonable to assume LW gets 2/3 of the carries? I don't think so.

That gives him 300 carries, or approximately 19 per game. Right in line with last year. I fail to see how this makes him worthless.

Do you expect him to get fewer than 2/3 of the RB carries? If so, why? Fisher's 60-40 or 50-50 split of touches implies that LW gets somewhere between 60-70% of carries, no?

Would love to better understand why you see LW only getting 12-14 carries per game. Is Mike Martz joining as the OC?

Fisher said the carries and touches would be 60/40 or 50/50. He never said touches by itself.

I think the original hype could be worthy-- Sounds like he will get plenty of opportunities:

"We’re going to use them both (Johnson and LenDale White) depending on the game plans and it makes sense to take advantage of both of their abilities. I think we’ll have a better gauge once we get to the middle part of the season how the carries and the touches are going to work. Provided they’re healthy week in and week out I would assume it would be close to 50-50, maybe 60-40 (White)," Fisher said.

For what it's worth, the real problem is if CJ gets those carries and he makes a lot out of it. coaches can talk now, but if CJ impresses, even close to how this hype machine thinks he will, there is no way he will stay at 40-50%.

 

[baconisgood]

at the LenDale lovers.Like I said, he's exactly the kind of RB you draft if you have no intention of winning your league. Where is the upside? Last year, in what will go down as his best fantasy season with the Titans, he wasn't an advantage. He doesn't catch the ball, he's incredibly reliant on his defense to dominate, and his carry totals fluctuate so wildly that you're always in danger of throwing up a zero from that spot. And now he's going to be getting closer to 12-14 carries a game, with very few receptions, and possibly an even less predictable carry total from week-to-week.The problem was never that LenDale stinks, or that that he won't get any carries. The problem is that you're drafting a guy that has very little chance to be a consistent advantage, but very good chance to be a disadvantage weekly. :X at drafting a pedestrian option with no upside simply because the carry projections from the "experts" tell you he's worth a borderline RB2 pick.

Last year the Titans ran 543 times. 93 of those carries went to Vince Young, leaving roughly 450 carries for the RBs.If Fisher is saying that the # of "touches" is split 60-40 or 50-50, what does that imply for the number of carries? Is it THAT unreasonable to assume LW gets 2/3 of the carries? I don't think so. That gives him 300 carries, or approximately 19 per game. Right in line with last year. I fail to see how this makes him worthless.Do you expect him to get fewer than 2/3 of the RB carries? If so, why? Fisher's 60-40 or 50-50 split of touches implies that LW gets somewhere between 60-70% of carries, no? Would love to better understand why you see LW only getting 12-14 carries per game. Is Mike Martz joining as the OC?

Because that would be insane production. White with 300 carries and 20 receptions and CJ with 150 carries would mean 170 receptions for CJ to have a 50/50 split. 60/40 would be a more reasonable 70 reception, and is possible, but that is the max that White can get if there is a true 60/40 split. Of course since the rookie has already impressed enough to garner 40% or more of the touches, and Lendale is pedestrian (at best) at everything not short yardage related CJ could end up the season with the 60 end, not the 40.

 

[baconisgood]

at the LenDale lovers.Like I said, he's exactly the kind of RB you draft if you have no intention of winning your league. Where is the upside? Last year, in what will go down as his best fantasy season with the Titans, he wasn't an advantage. He doesn't catch the ball, he's incredibly reliant on his defense to dominate, and his carry totals fluctuate so wildly that you're always in danger of throwing up a zero from that spot. And now he's going to be getting closer to 12-14 carries a game, with very few receptions, and possibly an even less predictable carry total from week-to-week.The problem was never that LenDale stinks, or that that he won't get any carries. The problem is that you're drafting a guy that has very little chance to be a consistent advantage, but very good chance to be a disadvantage weekly. :X at drafting a pedestrian option with no upside simply because the carry projections from the "experts" tell you he's worth a borderline RB2 pick.

Last year the Titans ran 543 times. 93 of those carries went to Vince Young, leaving roughly 450 carries for the RBs.If Fisher is saying that the # of "touches" is split 60-40 or 50-50, what does that imply for the number of carries? Is it THAT unreasonable to assume LW gets 2/3 of the carries? I don't think so. That gives him 300 carries, or approximately 19 per game. Right in line with last year. I fail to see how this makes him worthless.Do you expect him to get fewer than 2/3 of the RB carries? If so, why? Fisher's 60-40 or 50-50 split of touches implies that LW gets somewhere between 60-70% of carries, no? Would love to better understand why you see LW only getting 12-14 carries per game. Is Mike Martz joining as the OC?

Because that would be insane production. White with 300 carries and 20 receptions and CJ with 150 carries would mean 170 receptions for CJ to have a 50/50 split. 60/40 would be a more reasonable 70 reception, and is possible, but that is the max that White can get if there is a true 60/40 split. Of course since the rookie has already impressed enough to garner 40% or more of the touches, and Lendale is pedestrian (at best) at everything not short yardage related CJ could end up the season with the 60 end, not the 40.

Two other things that hurt Lendale, VY was battling a quad injury which limited him and dropped his TDs from 7->3 one more attempts. + the signed Crumpler who is a good redzone target who has averaged 5 TDs a year for his career and the Titans TEs caught 1 TD last year.

 

[Abraham]

I could EASILY see Lendale getting 300 touches and Johnson getting 200 in that offense. In fact, I think that's pretty reasonable. White with 280 carries and 20 receptions, Johnson with 160 carries and 40 receptions, Henry with about 20-30 carries, Hall with 5 or 10.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Because that would be insane production. White with 300 carries and 20 receptions and CJ with 150 carries would mean 170 receptions for CJ to have a 50/50 split.

I don't believe it will be a 50/50 split.

60/40 would be a more reasonable 70 reception, and is possible, but that is the max that White can get if there is a true 60/40 split.

70 receptions (4-5 per game) seems perfectly reasonable for CJ.

Of course since the rookie has already impressed enough to garner 40% or more of the touches, and Lendale is pedestrian (at best) at everything not short yardage related CJ could end up the season with the 60 end, not the 40.

Given how much the Titans like to pound the ball, I think it's a stretch to expect CJ to get 60% of the touches.