The Colts Are As Good As In the 2011 Playoffs! (STILL ALIVE!) (1 Viewer)

[QuizGuy66]

UPDATED SCENARIO BELOW IN RESPONSE # 11

-QG

--------------------------

Was able to hack around with this years new yahoo playoff scenario generator.

Even though it says it starts in week 13, you can actually monkey around and play with scenarios for Week 11 and 12 with some URL magic

Here's the link. Will explain the hack around in a little bit.

Linky

Stuff that has to happen in Week 11 and Week 12 not shown on the yahoo site:

Week 11:

Cincinnati beats Baltimore

New England beats Kansas City

Miami beats Buffalo

Chicago beats San Diego

Cleveland beats Jacksonville

Atlanta beats Tennessee

Week 12:

Houston beats Jacksonville

San Diego beats Denver

Jets beat Buffalo

Chicago beats Oakland

Indy beats Carolina (duh)

Pittsburgh beats Kansas City

Cincinnati beats Cleveland

Tampa Bay beats Tennessee

San Francisco beats Baltimore

Dallas beats Miami

Week 13:

Tennessee beats Buffalo

Chicago beats Kansas City

Cleveland beats Baltimore

Indy beats New England

Washington beats Jets

San Diego beats Jacksonville

Week 14:

Pittsburgh beats Cleveland

Green Bay beats Oakland

New Orleans beats Tennessee

Philadelphia beats Miami

Kansas City beats Jets

San Diego beats Buffalo

Tampa Bay beats Jacksonville

Indy beats Baltimore

Week 15:

Atlanta beats Jacksonville

Miami beats Buffalo

Indianapolis beats Tennessee

Green Bay beats Kansas City

Detroit beats Oakland

Philadelphia beats Jets

Arizona beats Cleveland

San Diego beats Baltimore

Week 16:

Indianapolis beats Houston

Jacksonville beats Tennessee

Oakland beats Kansas City

New England beats Miami

Giants beat Jets

Cleveland beats Baltimore

Week 17:

Cincinnati beats Baltimore

Pittsburgh beats Cleveland

Kansas City beats Denver

San Diego beats Oakland

Miami beats Jets

Indianapolis beats Jacksonville

Houston beats Tennessee

And one of the following three happens:

Week 15: New England beats Denver

Week 17: New England beats Buffalo

or

Week 15: New England beats Denver

Week 16: Denver beats Buffalo

or

Week 16: Buffalo beats Denver

Week 17: New England beats Buffalo

If I have my math right and if we give every game as a 50/50 chance (i.e. exclude ties), the odds of this happening are:

1 in 3,377,699,720,527,872

The Colts are as good as in



-QG

 

[DrapedInVelvet]

 

[QuizGuy66]

Now about the yahoo scenario generator. While they put it out "officially" for week 13 and later, I figured out that you actually do the scenarios now by tweaking the URLs by hand. I had to figure out which games were which for the 2 weeks that you couldn't enter through the web interface.

s only from here on in

The URLs that the yahoo site generates can be decoded.

Here's an example of what one looks like:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&10=1000000&11=10014410&12=00001004&13=14015044&14=00005110&15=04011410&16=10000450

Each week is indicated with a string of 7 (for this week) or 8 numbers.

The &10 section is for week 11

The &11 section is for week 12, etc

The 7 or 8 digits following each = above corresponds to a PAIR of NFL games. For example the first digit after &10= corresponds to The Cincinnati/Baltimore and Kansas City/New England games. The second digit after &10= corresponds to the Arizona/SF and Dallas/Washington games. I'll have the whole chart below.

There are 9 different combinations that each pair of games can result in. For example with the Cincy/Balt and KC/NE pairing you can have:

Baltimore win and NE win

Cincy win and NE win

Cincy/Balt tie and NE win

Balt win and KC win

Ciny win and KC win

Cincy/Balt tie and KC win

Baltimore win and KC/NE tie

Cincy win and KC/NE tie

Cincy/Balt tie and KC/NE tie

One of 9 characters corresponds to each of the Above. The characters are 0,1,2,4,5,6,8,9,A

For each pair of games, the corresponding codes used by yahoo are consistent. For ease of use, I'll refer to the pairs of games as "A" and "B" and each combo will be listed in that order. For example, Cincy/Balt is game A in the pairing and KC/NE is game B.

0 means game A home won and game B home won

1 means game A away won and game B home won

2 means game A was a tie and game B home won

4 means game A home won and game B away won

5 means game A away won and game B away won

6 means game A was a tie and game B away won

8 means game A home won and game B was a tie

9 means game A away won and game B was a tie

A means game A was a tie and game B was a tie.

So in the yahoo code above, if the home team won every game the rest of the year the code would be:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&10=0000000&11=00000000&12=00000000&13=00000000&14=00000000&15=00000000&16=00000000

Finally here is the chart to unlock weeks 11 and 12 so you can plug those in if you like. Since week 13 and later are avaiable already on yahoo I didn't bother to figure out what games correspond to which digit for those weeks:

Week 11 (aka &10=#######)

First Digit:

Game A Cincy at Baltimore

Game B Kansas City at New England

Second Digit:

Game A Arizona at San Francisco

Game B Dallas at Washington

Third Digit:

Game A Oakland at Minnesota

Game B Philly at Giants

Fourth Digit:

Game A Seattle at St. Louis

Game B Buffalo at Miami

Fifth Digit:

Game A Carolina at Detroit

Game B Tampa Bay at Green Bay

Sixth Digit:

Game A San Diego at Chicago

Game B Jacksonville at Cleveland

Seventh Digit:

Game A Jets at Denver (they've actually made it where Denver has won regardless of digit put in)

Game B Tennessee at Atlanta

Week 12 (aka &11=########)

First Digit:

Game A Houston at Jacksonville

Game B Giants at New Orleans

Second Digit:

Game A Denver at San Diego

Game B Washington at Seattle

Third Digit:

Game A Buffalo at Jets

Game B New England at Philadlelphia

Fourth Digit:

Game A Chicago at Oakland

Game B Arizona at St Louis

Fifth Digit:

Game A Carolina at Indy

Game B Pittsburgh at KC

Sixth Digit:

Game A Cleveland at Cincinnati

Game B Tampa Bay at Tennessee

Seventh Digit:

Game A San Francisco at Baltimore

Game B Minnesota at Atlanta

Eight Digit:

Game A Miami at Dallas

Game B Green Bay at Detroit

Link again to the scenario generator with all winners set as home

Have fun kids





-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

I love the NFL tiebreakers and the elegant math that goes into it. Go through this every year actually. Indy at 0-10 was too good to pass up and I don't think we'll see a scenario quite this convoluted (without having any ties involved) for a long long time. -QG

 

[General Tso]

 

[Tony Reali]

1 in 3 quadrillion

jesus

 

[candymanvandyfan]

1 in 3 quadrillion

So you're telling me there's a chance. Yeah!!!

 

[indyram96]

 

[QuizGuy66]

If I have my math right and if we give every game as a 50/50 chance (i.e. exclude ties), the odds of this happening are:1 in 3,377,699,720,527,872The Colts are as good as in -QG

To give you an idea of how long those odds are. If you bought 3 Mega Millions tickets for 2 consecutive drawings the odds that you would win the jackpot both times is 1 in 3,430,504,875,942,144Btw, the Tebow game was NOT needed to keep the Colts in the playoff race. If the Jets had won, however, they would need to lose to Buffalo (instead of win as above) and it would then become mandatory that Denver and New England beat Buffalo.-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

:( I think the Bengals loss knocks the Colts out, but I'll confirm since it is possible for them to go 6-10. Have to use the alternate permutations now.

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

Woohoo! The Colts are still alive!!!

Here's the new way they can make it. Will have the break-down of all that has to happen soon

Linky

Edited for more humorous scenario that has the Colts making it at the same time as the 7-9 Raiders do.

-QG

 

[Banger]

you're nuts.

 

[QuizGuy66]

you're nuts.

I just like math -QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

Off Topic - Four 7-9 Teams Make playoffs

Featuring Cleveland at Miami.

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

ESPN Has it's own playoff scenario generator up now

-QG

 

[nysportsfan]

you're nuts.

I just like math -QG

Who is better at math - you or MoP?

 

[QuizGuy66]

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Forgot to update this and have a few minutes to kill before heading over to my sister's for Turkey Day

These things have to happen:

Week 12: Indy d Car, Pitt D KC, SD d Den, Hou d Jax, Clev d Cincy

Week 13: Indy d NE, Wash d Jets, Pitt d Cincy, Jax d SD,

Week 14: Indy d Balt, Pitt d Clev, Hou d Cincy, TB d Jax, NO d Tenn, KC d Jets

Week 15: Indy d Ten, Atl d Jax, Phil d Jets, Ariz d Clev, StL d Cincy, Balt d SD

Week 16: Indy d Hou, Ariz d Cincy, Balt d Clev, Jax d Tenn, Det d SD, Giants d Jets

Week 17: Indy d Jax, Balt d Cincy, Pitt d Clev, Hou d Tenn, Mia d Jets, Oak d SD

An undetermined number of these things have to happen (there are ways Indy makes it if some of these don't happen but not if all of them don't happen):

Week 12: Jets d Buff, Dal d Miami

Week 13: Tenn d Buff, Chic d KC, Minn d Den

Week 14: Chic d Den, Phil d Mia, SD d Buff

Week 15: Mia d Buff, NE d Den, GB d KC

Week 16: Buff d Den, Oak d KC, NE d Mia

Week 17: Den d KC, NE d Buff

So there you go. I think.

Happy Thanksgiving

-QG

 

[pittstownkiller]

If I have my math right and if we give every game as a 50/50 chance (i.e. exclude ties), the odds of this happening are:

1 in 3,377,699,720,527,872

The Colts are as good as in



-QG

To give you an idea of how long those odds are. If you bought 3 Mega Millions tickets for 2 consecutive drawings the odds that you would win the jackpot both times is 1 in 3,430,504,875,942,144

Btw, the Tebow game was NOT needed to keep the Colts in the playoff race. If the Jets had won, however, they would need to lose to Buffalo (instead of win as above) and it would then become mandatory that Denver and New England beat Buffalo.

-QG

Wouldn't the odds of winning on the second lottery ticket be exactly the same as the first; such as what would be the odds of a coin coming up heads on the 10th flip, if after you flipped it 9 times it had already came up heads all those times too - still 50/50, correct?

 

[jasvic]

If I have my math right and if we give every game as a 50/50 chance (i.e. exclude ties), the odds of this happening are:

1 in 3,377,699,720,527,872

The Colts are as good as in



-QG

To give you an idea of how long those odds are. If you bought 3 Mega Millions tickets for 2 consecutive drawings the odds that you would win the jackpot both times is 1 in 3,430,504,875,942,144

Btw, the Tebow game was NOT needed to keep the Colts in the playoff race. If the Jets had won, however, they would need to lose to Buffalo (instead of win as above) and it would then become mandatory that Denver and New England beat Buffalo.

-QG

Wouldn't the odds of winning on the second lottery ticket be exactly the same as the first; such as what would be the odds of a coin coming up heads on the 10th flip, if after you flipped it 9 times it had already came up heads all those times too - still 50/50, correct?

The odds for the 10th flip is still 50/50, but the odds of all 10 flips being the same is much different. He's saying the odds of winning both drawings, not either. Subtle difference.

 

[bostiguy]

Can they make the playoffs AND still have any shot at drafting Luck?

 

[pittstownkiller]

If I have my math right and if we give every game as a 50/50 chance (i.e. exclude ties), the odds of this happening are:

1 in 3,377,699,720,527,872

The Colts are as good as in



-QG

To give you an idea of how long those odds are. If you bought 3 Mega Millions tickets for 2 consecutive drawings the odds that you would win the jackpot both times is 1 in 3,430,504,875,942,144

Btw, the Tebow game was NOT needed to keep the Colts in the playoff race. If the Jets had won, however, they would need to lose to Buffalo (instead of win as above) and it would then become mandatory that Denver and New England beat Buffalo.

-QG

Wouldn't the odds of winning on the second lottery ticket be exactly the same as the first; such as what would be the odds of a coin coming up heads on the 10th flip, if after you flipped it 9 times it had already came up heads all those times too - still 50/50, correct?

The odds for the 10th flip is still 50/50, but the odds of all 10 flips being the same is much different. He's saying the odds of winning both drawings, not either. Subtle difference.

I hesitate to do this because it is an exercise in futility and has less to do about mathematics as it does about semantics: for argument sake lets say winning the lottery is 1:10,000,000, when you buy your first ticket your odds are this, when you buy your second ticket your odds are this, two separate activities that you are trying to link by having a precondition (winning the first lottery); if you made the argument that you bought tickets in two separate lotteries to be held on the same day, that you would win both then I'm with you. Once the first lottery is won your odds are never going to increase more than the 1:10,000,000. Or let me ask it this way to Quiz66: Do you think I need 10,000,0002 to play the first lottery so that I am guaranteed 10,000,000 winners to go into the second lottery, thereby giving me a guaranteed winner?And before all you math majors start telling me how stupid I am, remember I hesitated on doing this .

 

[Bottomfeeder Sports]

And before all you math majors start telling me how stupid I am, remember I hesitated on doing this .

You should have sobered up some more.

 

[pittstownkiller]

And before all you math majors start telling me how stupid I am, remember I hesitated on doing this .

You should have sobered up some more.

Unfortunately on top of being a vegetarian, I don't drink; not a lot to be thankful for.

 

[ldizzle]

I just saw on NFLN that the colts have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs? say it aint so...

 

[QuizGuy66]

(well actually as the Bengals won their game)

-QG