Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Alright, I've harped in every single thread in here lately that preseason performances do not equal regular season production, and while I've gotten through to most people, some still want to point at 3 rush, 1 yard type performances as panic type situations for their fantasy running backs.
So, I'm going to the past to calm your fears, and to finally make you guys realize--the only thing you should be looking for in the preseason is camp battles, and that your studs don't get hurt.
If the 2005 preseason was to be believed, you would conclude:
Week 1:
Drew Brees would struggle in San Diego.
Carson Palmer would struggle through another year.
Culpepper was set to repeat 2005, and Moore was a stud in the making.
Drew Bledsoe will struggle, and Arizona has a pretty good defense.
Big Ben and that Willie Parker guy are pretty awful.
Brandon Lloyd is going to be AWESOME.
That Steve Smith is pretty mediocre.
Ron Dayne is a stud.
Week 2:
Deuce is going to have a career year.
McNair is back to his old form.
Culpepper and Pennington are fantastic.
Kevin Jones is pretty good, and Charles Rogers is going to break out.
Cadillac Williams is pretty bad.
Edge is absolutely terrible!
Big Ben is terrible again!
THIS is Kevan Barlow's year!
That Larry Fitzgerald is going to struggle.
Julius Jones is ready to go!
Week 3:
Carson Palmer just won't throw touchdowns.
Corey Dillon is great again.
Seriously, Big Ben sucks.
This is Lelie's breakout year.
Shawn Alexander is struggling.
Barlow is way batter than that Frank Gore guy.
Burleson is going to be great.
Week 4 (quite a few teams rested their starters for the entire game):
Drew Bennett's 2005 was no fluke.
Chris Simms is fantastic.
Thomas Jones is pretty bad.
Get Julius Jones quickly!
Big Ben struggles AGAIN.
Man, those Colts are awful.
That Larry Johnson is okay, but nobody special.
Steven Jackson is pretty bad.
Yes, there are games in which people that struggled during the preseason struggled during the regular season, and people who had good games during the preseason did fairly well in the regular season.
But, as this thread shows, there's no direct correlation. If you're really drawing conclusions based on players' performances during the preseason, you might get lucky every once in a while--but you're not going to be able to draw rational conclusions.
So, now that I've calmed everyone down (hopefully), the question to ask is, "How can I take advantage of this?"
Simple.
If your mid-round pick is having a good preseason that's shooting him up draft boards, TRADE HIM. Get good value for him--much more than you think his normal regular season is going to produce. People are going to watch Sportscenter, and conclude that your player is going to be a stud. You know better. Get great value for him.
Trade for those players that are rushing for 3 yards on 5 carries. 5 carries (or even 25 carries), as any statistics major will tell you, is nowhere near a decent sample size. Plus, again, the preseason doesn't matter! Get those players that are "struggling" during the preseason for cheap.
Then, ride them to the championship...and I believe I deserve at least a 2% cut.
In conclusion: STOP PANICKING!
Your players will be fine...or they won't. Some of them will explode, some of them will be busts. However, the preseason has NOTHING to do with which one it will be.
So, I'm going to the past to calm your fears, and to finally make you guys realize--the only thing you should be looking for in the preseason is camp battles, and that your studs don't get hurt.
If the 2005 preseason was to be believed, you would conclude:
Week 1:
Drew Brees would struggle in San Diego.
Carson Palmer would struggle through another year.
Culpepper was set to repeat 2005, and Moore was a stud in the making.
Drew Bledsoe will struggle, and Arizona has a pretty good defense.
Big Ben and that Willie Parker guy are pretty awful.
Brandon Lloyd is going to be AWESOME.
That Steve Smith is pretty mediocre.
Ron Dayne is a stud.
Week 2:
Deuce is going to have a career year.
McNair is back to his old form.
Culpepper and Pennington are fantastic.
Kevin Jones is pretty good, and Charles Rogers is going to break out.
Cadillac Williams is pretty bad.
Edge is absolutely terrible!
Big Ben is terrible again!
THIS is Kevan Barlow's year!
That Larry Fitzgerald is going to struggle.
Julius Jones is ready to go!
Week 3:
Carson Palmer just won't throw touchdowns.
Corey Dillon is great again.
Seriously, Big Ben sucks.
This is Lelie's breakout year.
Shawn Alexander is struggling.
Barlow is way batter than that Frank Gore guy.
Burleson is going to be great.
Week 4 (quite a few teams rested their starters for the entire game):
Drew Bennett's 2005 was no fluke.
Chris Simms is fantastic.
Thomas Jones is pretty bad.
Get Julius Jones quickly!
Big Ben struggles AGAIN.
Man, those Colts are awful.
That Larry Johnson is okay, but nobody special.
Steven Jackson is pretty bad.
Yes, there are games in which people that struggled during the preseason struggled during the regular season, and people who had good games during the preseason did fairly well in the regular season.
But, as this thread shows, there's no direct correlation. If you're really drawing conclusions based on players' performances during the preseason, you might get lucky every once in a while--but you're not going to be able to draw rational conclusions.
So, now that I've calmed everyone down (hopefully), the question to ask is, "How can I take advantage of this?"
Simple.
If your mid-round pick is having a good preseason that's shooting him up draft boards, TRADE HIM. Get good value for him--much more than you think his normal regular season is going to produce. People are going to watch Sportscenter, and conclude that your player is going to be a stud. You know better. Get great value for him.
Trade for those players that are rushing for 3 yards on 5 carries. 5 carries (or even 25 carries), as any statistics major will tell you, is nowhere near a decent sample size. Plus, again, the preseason doesn't matter! Get those players that are "struggling" during the preseason for cheap.
Then, ride them to the championship...and I believe I deserve at least a 2% cut.

In conclusion: STOP PANICKING!
Your players will be fine...or they won't. Some of them will explode, some of them will be busts. However, the preseason has NOTHING to do with which one it will be.