What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

The definitive "preseason doesn't matter" thread. (1 Viewer)

Keys Myaths

Pokerguy
Alright, I've harped in every single thread in here lately that preseason performances do not equal regular season production, and while I've gotten through to most people, some still want to point at 3 rush, 1 yard type performances as panic type situations for their fantasy running backs.

So, I'm going to the past to calm your fears, and to finally make you guys realize--the only thing you should be looking for in the preseason is camp battles, and that your studs don't get hurt.

If the 2005 preseason was to be believed, you would conclude:

Week 1:

Drew Brees would struggle in San Diego.

Carson Palmer would struggle through another year.

Culpepper was set to repeat 2005, and Moore was a stud in the making.

Drew Bledsoe will struggle, and Arizona has a pretty good defense.

Big Ben and that Willie Parker guy are pretty awful.

Brandon Lloyd is going to be AWESOME.

That Steve Smith is pretty mediocre.

Ron Dayne is a stud.

Week 2:

Deuce is going to have a career year.

McNair is back to his old form.

Culpepper and Pennington are fantastic.

Kevin Jones is pretty good, and Charles Rogers is going to break out.

Cadillac Williams is pretty bad.

Edge is absolutely terrible!

Big Ben is terrible again!

THIS is Kevan Barlow's year!

That Larry Fitzgerald is going to struggle.

Julius Jones is ready to go!

Week 3:

Carson Palmer just won't throw touchdowns.

Corey Dillon is great again.

Seriously, Big Ben sucks.

This is Lelie's breakout year.

Shawn Alexander is struggling.

Barlow is way batter than that Frank Gore guy.

Burleson is going to be great.

Week 4 (quite a few teams rested their starters for the entire game):

Drew Bennett's 2005 was no fluke.

Chris Simms is fantastic.

Thomas Jones is pretty bad.

Get Julius Jones quickly!

Big Ben struggles AGAIN.

Man, those Colts are awful.

That Larry Johnson is okay, but nobody special.

Steven Jackson is pretty bad.

Yes, there are games in which people that struggled during the preseason struggled during the regular season, and people who had good games during the preseason did fairly well in the regular season.

But, as this thread shows, there's no direct correlation. If you're really drawing conclusions based on players' performances during the preseason, you might get lucky every once in a while--but you're not going to be able to draw rational conclusions.

So, now that I've calmed everyone down (hopefully), the question to ask is, "How can I take advantage of this?"

Simple.

If your mid-round pick is having a good preseason that's shooting him up draft boards, TRADE HIM. Get good value for him--much more than you think his normal regular season is going to produce. People are going to watch Sportscenter, and conclude that your player is going to be a stud. You know better. Get great value for him.

Trade for those players that are rushing for 3 yards on 5 carries. 5 carries (or even 25 carries), as any statistics major will tell you, is nowhere near a decent sample size. Plus, again, the preseason doesn't matter! Get those players that are "struggling" during the preseason for cheap.

Then, ride them to the championship...and I believe I deserve at least a 2% cut. ;)

In conclusion: STOP PANICKING!

Your players will be fine...or they won't. Some of them will explode, some of them will be busts. However, the preseason has NOTHING to do with which one it will be.

 
"Barlow is way batter than that Frank Gore guy."

I still believe that... *runs and hides*

 
I don't ever remember so much panic and premature player judgements in preseason as there has been this year. It will get to be even more pathetic when we start seeing the early REGULAR season panic threads.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I don't ever remember so much panic in preseason as there has been this year.
I don't either, and it's not limited to our little world, either, from what I've seen.The main recommendation I want most people to get out of this is to TAKE ADVANTAGE of the people who overreact one way or another. There's SO much value to be had, in a lot of different areas.
 
So, now that I've calmed everyone down (hopefully), the question to ask is, "How can I take advantage of this?"
I've been reading your constant harping, I think you devalue the preseason at your own expense, and I put you in the group of those who need a little calming. :yes:
 
I don't ever remember so much panic in preseason as there has been this year.
I don't either, and it's not limited to our little world, either, from what I've seen.The main recommendation I want most people to get out of this is to TAKE ADVANTAGE of the people who overreact one way or another. There's SO much value to be had, in a lot of different areas.
I agree. Who are your top 5 way undervalued players affected by panic that you deem will be just fine?
 
So, now that I've calmed everyone down (hopefully), the question to ask is, "How can I take advantage of this?"
I've been reading your constant harping, I think you devalue the preseason at your own expense, and I put you in the group of those who need a little calming. :yes:
Oh, I'm taking plenty of advantage of this in my leagues.Boldin got a little tweak, and an owner panicked, and I got him for peanuts. I can do this for the 2004 preseason if you'd like.If you want to believe there's a correlation between preseason and regular season performances, go for it. But, as I've shown...there's none.Yes, there are players who played well in the preseason who have done well in the regular season (and vice-versa). But, there are just as many that DON'T do well. THAT'S been my point this entire time.
 
I don't ever remember so much panic in preseason as there has been this year.
I don't either, and it's not limited to our little world, either, from what I've seen.The main recommendation I want most people to get out of this is to TAKE ADVANTAGE of the people who overreact one way or another. There's SO much value to be had, in a lot of different areas.
I agree. Who are your top 5 way undervalued players affected by panic that you deem will be just fine?
1. Steven Jackson: People see him stuffed a few times, and they want to go nuts. Plus, the Stephen Davis conversation about taking the goalline carries is out of control. The Rams haven't even signed the guy yet, there are other teams after him, and even if he IS signed, it's been ALL speculation as to the goalline back conversation. There's been NO official word on this, yet everyone is bumping Jackson down. Could it happen? Sure. But, Jackson's been knocked down to his floor. If you have owners like that in your league, it's all upside.2. Marvin Harrison: I point out this thread, because I've seen a lot of talk like this in the preseason...that THIS is Wayne's year that he'll break out, and make Harrison into the Issac Bruce of Indy. Wayne gets more receptions than Harrison in one or two games, and every owner is trying to push the panic button. Again, could it happen? Sure. But we hear that every year about these two, and again, with owners like this in your league, it could push Harrison down to his FLOOR value.

3. Chester Taylor: Yeah, he struggled in a preseason game. But, Minnesota has the weapons around him to make him a success. The offensive line is there. The defense is slowly improving. 3 preseason games doesn't change that. Again, could he be a bust? Sure. But, his value is slowly moving down because of a couple of preseason carries, and he's representing pretty good value right now.

4. Drew Bledsoe: The Tony Romo hype has died off some, but it still lingers a little. The TO problems are well documented. I think people forget just how good Bledsoe was WITHOUT TO last year. The preseason has made this more evident. It was a career year, and without TO, I'd have him as about QB14, but the TO situation brings so much upside to him, that I think people have absolutely forgotten in all this mess.

5. Reggie Brown: He's been fairly average this preseason, and people are already pushing the panic button on this kid. He's the #1 target in a pass first, pass second offense. He's pretty talented, he's got a great quarterback, but nobody's talking about him because he hasn't had the "holy crap" preseason game...and people are already talking about him as overrated.

 
By the way, those five are just MY five. I could be very wrong on a couple of them. I'm bad at predictions, always have been--but that's not the point of this.

(I'm just forseeing this being bumped, and people discounting this whole thing because Reggie Brown had a bad year or something.)

 
I don't ever remember so much panic in preseason as there has been this year.
I don't either, and it's not limited to our little world, either, from what I've seen.The main recommendation I want most people to get out of this is to TAKE ADVANTAGE of the people who overreact one way or another. There's SO much value to be had, in a lot of different areas.
I agree. Who are your top 5 way undervalued players affected by panic that you deem will be just fine?
1. Steven Jackson: People see him stuffed a few times, and they want to go nuts. Plus, the Stephen Davis conversation about taking the goalline carries is out of control. The Rams haven't even signed the guy yet, there are other teams after him, and even if he IS signed, it's been ALL speculation as to the goalline back conversation. There's been NO official word on this, yet everyone is bumping Jackson down. Could it happen? Sure. But, Jackson's been knocked down to his floor. If you have owners like that in your league, it's all upside.2. Marvin Harrison: I point out this thread, because I've seen a lot of talk like this in the preseason...that THIS is Wayne's year that he'll break out, and make Harrison into the Issac Bruce of Indy. Wayne gets more receptions than Harrison in one or two games, and every owner is trying to push the panic button. Again, could it happen? Sure. But we hear that every year about these two, and again, with owners like this in your league, it could push Harrison down to his FLOOR value.

3. Chester Taylor: Yeah, he struggled in a preseason game. But, Minnesota has the weapons around him to make him a success. The offensive line is there. The defense is slowly improving. 3 preseason games doesn't change that. Again, could he be a bust? Sure. But, his value is slowly moving down because of a couple of preseason carries, and he's representing pretty good value right now.

4. Drew Bledsoe: The Tony Romo hype has died off some, but it still lingers a little. The TO problems are well documented. I think people forget just how good Bledsoe was WITHOUT TO last year. The preseason has made this more evident. It was a career year, and without TO, I'd have him as about QB14, but the TO situation brings so much upside to him, that I think people have absolutely forgotten in all this mess.

5. Reggie Brown: He's been fairly average this preseason, and people are already pushing the panic button on this kid. He's the #1 target in a pass first, pass second offense. He's pretty talented, he's got a great quarterback, but nobody's talking about him because he hasn't had the "holy crap" preseason game...and people are already talking about him as overrated.
Jackson was stuffed a lot last year too, this isn't just a preseason thing. People were hoping that Linehan would make a big difference but that hasn't seemed to happen thus far. Hence the reason he has so many detractors.
 
By the way, those five are just MY five.
All five went before their ADPs in my main online league, and none of the owners are talking trade or panicking. In fact, the Brown, Taylor, and Bledsoe owners are pretty jacked up about the coming season.
Oh, I'm taking plenty of advantage of this in my leagues.
Sprecifics? I'd like to see how this works out. Trading is very quiet in my two draft-completed leagues, this year and traditionally.
 
Alright, I've harped in every single thread in here lately that preseason performances do not equal regular season production, and while I've gotten through to most people, some still want to point at 3 rush, 1 yard type performances as panic type situations for their fantasy running backs.

So, I'm going to the past to calm your fears, and to finally make you guys realize--the only thing you should be looking for in the preseason is camp battles, and that your studs don't get hurt.

If the 2005 preseason was to be believed, you would conclude:

Week 1:

Drew Brees would struggle in San Diego.

Carson Palmer would struggle through another year.

Culpepper was set to repeat 2005, and Moore was a stud in the making.

Drew Bledsoe will struggle, and Arizona has a pretty good defense.

Big Ben and that Willie Parker guy are pretty awful.

Brandon Lloyd is going to be AWESOME.

That Steve Smith is pretty mediocre.

Ron Dayne is a stud.

Week 2:

Deuce is going to have a career year.

McNair is back to his old form.

Culpepper and Pennington are fantastic.

Kevin Jones is pretty good, and Charles Rogers is going to break out.

Cadillac Williams is pretty bad.

Edge is absolutely terrible!

Big Ben is terrible again!

THIS is Kevan Barlow's year!

That Larry Fitzgerald is going to struggle.

Julius Jones is ready to go!

Week 3:

Carson Palmer just won't throw touchdowns.

Corey Dillon is great again.

Seriously, Big Ben sucks.

This is Lelie's breakout year.

Shawn Alexander is struggling.

Barlow is way batter than that Frank Gore guy.

Burleson is going to be great.

Week 4 (quite a few teams rested their starters for the entire game):

Drew Bennett's 2005 was no fluke.

Chris Simms is fantastic.

Thomas Jones is pretty bad.

Get Julius Jones quickly!

Big Ben struggles AGAIN.

Man, those Colts are awful.

That Larry Johnson is okay, but nobody special.

Steven Jackson is pretty bad.

Yes, there are games in which people that struggled during the preseason struggled during the regular season, and people who had good games during the preseason did fairly well in the regular season.

But, as this thread shows, there's no direct correlation. If you're really drawing conclusions based on players' performances during the preseason, you might get lucky every once in a while--but you're not going to be able to draw rational conclusions.

So, now that I've calmed everyone down (hopefully), the question to ask is, "How can I take advantage of this?"

Simple.

If your mid-round pick is having a good preseason that's shooting him up draft boards, TRADE HIM. Get good value for him--much more than you think his normal regular season is going to produce. People are going to watch Sportscenter, and conclude that your player is going to be a stud. You know better. Get great value for him.

Trade for those players that are rushing for 3 yards on 5 carries. 5 carries (or even 25 carries), as any statistics major will tell you, is nowhere near a decent sample size. Plus, again, the preseason doesn't matter! Get those players that are "struggling" during the preseason for cheap.

Then, ride them to the championship...and I believe I deserve at least a 2% cut. ;)

In conclusion: STOP PANICKING!

Your players will be fine...or they won't. Some of them will explode, some of them will be busts. However, the preseason has NOTHING to do with which one it will be.
:goodposting: Enough said.

 
I don't ever remember so much panic in preseason as there has been this year.
I don't either, and it's not limited to our little world, either, from what I've seen.The main recommendation I want most people to get out of this is to TAKE ADVANTAGE of the people who overreact one way or another. There's SO much value to be had, in a lot of different areas.
I agree. Who are your top 5 way undervalued players affected by panic that you deem will be just fine?
1. Steven Jackson: People see him stuffed a few times, and they want to go nuts. Plus, the Stephen Davis conversation about taking the goalline carries is out of control. The Rams haven't even signed the guy yet, there are other teams after him, and even if he IS signed, it's been ALL speculation as to the goalline back conversation. There's been NO official word on this, yet everyone is bumping Jackson down. Could it happen? Sure. But, Jackson's been knocked down to his floor. If you have owners like that in your league, it's all upside.2. Marvin Harrison: I point out this thread, because I've seen a lot of talk like this in the preseason...that THIS is Wayne's year that he'll break out, and make Harrison into the Issac Bruce of Indy. Wayne gets more receptions than Harrison in one or two games, and every owner is trying to push the panic button. Again, could it happen? Sure. But we hear that every year about these two, and again, with owners like this in your league, it could push Harrison down to his FLOOR value.

3. Chester Taylor: Yeah, he struggled in a preseason game. But, Minnesota has the weapons around him to make him a success. The offensive line is there. The defense is slowly improving. 3 preseason games doesn't change that. Again, could he be a bust? Sure. But, his value is slowly moving down because of a couple of preseason carries, and he's representing pretty good value right now.

4. Drew Bledsoe: The Tony Romo hype has died off some, but it still lingers a little. The TO problems are well documented. I think people forget just how good Bledsoe was WITHOUT TO last year. The preseason has made this more evident. It was a career year, and without TO, I'd have him as about QB14, but the TO situation brings so much upside to him, that I think people have absolutely forgotten in all this mess.

5. Reggie Brown: He's been fairly average this preseason, and people are already pushing the panic button on this kid. He's the #1 target in a pass first, pass second offense. He's pretty talented, he's got a great quarterback, but nobody's talking about him because he hasn't had the "holy crap" preseason game...and people are already talking about him as overrated.
Jackson was stuffed a lot last year too, this isn't just a preseason thing. People were hoping that Linehan would make a big difference but that hasn't seemed to happen thus far. Hence the reason he has so many detractors.
Exactly, and there were plenty of rumblings about Wayne taking over for Marvin last year too.
 
By the way, those five are just MY five.
All five went before their ADPs in my main online league, and none of the owners are talking trade or panicking. In fact, the Brown, Taylor, and Bledsoe owners are pretty jacked up about the coming season.
Oh, I'm taking plenty of advantage of this in my leagues.
Sprecifics? I'd like to see how this works out. Trading is very quiet in my two draft-completed leagues, this year and traditionally.
Yes, that's just what I've seen in my leagues. Other league may have different people overvalued...you need to find out what's going on in your specific league. People overreact to different things.Examples?The Boldin trade was one. People overreact to preseason injuries, too, no matter how small.I got Reggie Brown for peanuts in another league...and am trying to get Steven Jackson in another. I think I'm close.I've seen players traded for nearly nothing in a few, as well. But again, that depends on your particular league, and your particular overreactions.
 
Chaos Commish said:
Keys Myaths said:
Boldin got a little tweak, and an owner panicked, and I got him for peanuts.
What were the peanuts? Again, Boldin went before his ADP in my main online league. I took him, and I ain't interested in trading (unless someone is just goofy in love).
Hines Ward and Kevan Barlow.Again, it depends on your particular league. Talk to the owners in your league...find out what's going on. Most will be pretty transparent.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Chaos Commish said:
Keys Myaths said:
Boldin got a little tweak, and an owner panicked, and I got him for peanuts.
What were the peanuts? Again, Boldin went before his ADP in my main online league. I took him, and I ain't interested in trading (unless someone is just goofy in love).
Hines Ward and Kevan Barlow.Again, it depends on your particular league. Talk to the owners in your league...find out what's going on. Most will be pretty transparent.
nice peanuts. the best thing about that trade is that you will never have to waste any thought on whether or not to start barlow.
 
Chaos Commish said:
Keys Myaths said:
Boldin got a little tweak, and an owner panicked, and I got him for peanuts.
What were the peanuts? Again, Boldin went before his ADP in my main online league. I took him, and I ain't interested in trading (unless someone is just goofy in love).
Hines Ward and Kevan Barlow.Again, it depends on your particular league. Talk to the owners in your league...find out what's going on. Most will be pretty transparent.
nice peanuts. the best thing about that trade is that you will never have to waste any thought on whether or not to start barlow.
It's a ten team league.Barlow was my 5th RB.
 
I'm not interested enough to do it myself, but I would think that you could go through the same highly subjective "analysis" and find examples of guys who broke out that showed signs of doing so during the preseason.

I'm not saying preseason shouldn't be taken with a grain of salt, but this isn't exactly "proof".

 
I'm not interested enough to do it myself, but I would think that you could go through the same highly subjective "analysis" and find examples of guys who broke out that showed signs of doing so during the preseason.I'm not saying preseason shouldn't be taken with a grain of salt, but this isn't exactly "proof".
I addressed this. There are players that did well in the preseason, and were successful in the season.However, correlation doesn't equal causation. I'm proving that, because there's just as many examples of good/bad preseasons that didn't turn out to be a good predictor of regular season success or failure.About half of NFL players put their left sock on first every day. Some of those players become successful. Does that mean that we should be talking about socks, and have 15 threads dedicated to analyzing different patterns? No, because just as many players are unsuccessful that put on their left sock first.And that's what I'm showing here. Preseason is about as important as which sock the player puts on first in the morning.
 
I'm not interested enough to do it myself, but I would think that you could go through the same highly subjective "analysis" and find examples of guys who broke out that showed signs of doing so during the preseason.I'm not saying preseason shouldn't be taken with a grain of salt, but this isn't exactly "proof".
I addressed this. There are players that did well in the preseason, and were successful in the season.However, correlation doesn't equal causation. I'm proving that, because there's just as many examples of good/bad preseasons that didn't turn out to be a good predictor of regular season success or failure.
I agree with you generally and I realize I'm arguing semantics, but you didn't provide any evidence to back up this (valid) claim in the thread. Pointing out a few random selections of misleading preseason games isn't at all conclusive or scientific.
 
I'm not interested enough to do it myself, but I would think that you could go through the same highly subjective "analysis" and find examples of guys who broke out that showed signs of doing so during the preseason.I'm not saying preseason shouldn't be taken with a grain of salt, but this isn't exactly "proof".
I addressed this. There are players that did well in the preseason, and were successful in the season.However, correlation doesn't equal causation. I'm proving that, because there's just as many examples of good/bad preseasons that didn't turn out to be a good predictor of regular season success or failure.
I agree with you generally and I realize I'm arguing semantics, but you didn't provide any evidence to back up this (valid) claim in the thread. Pointing out a few random selections of misleading preseason games isn't at all conclusive or scientific.
How much evidence do you want?There's a difference between evidence (which I gave) and a scientific, statistical analysis (which you want).I don't have time to do the second. But, from the ample evidence I gave, you can get a pretty good idea of how the hypothesis testing would come out.
 
Chaos Commish said:
Keys Myaths said:
Boldin got a little tweak, and an owner panicked, and I got him for peanuts.
What were the peanuts? Again, Boldin went before his ADP in my main online league. I took him, and I ain't interested in trading (unless someone is just goofy in love).
Hines Ward and Kevan Barlow.Again, it depends on your particular league. Talk to the owners in your league...find out what's going on. Most will be pretty transparent.
nice peanuts. the best thing about that trade is that you will never have to waste any thought on whether or not to start barlow.
It's a ten team league.Barlow was my 5th RB.
i've never been in a league with less than 12. i love it when people post their rosters or info on their leagues ans don't qualify it. like: i have manning, palmer, lt, johnson, alexander, caddy, tiki, fitz, moss, to wayne, heap, gates, crumpler. oh yeah, i forgot to mention it's a 6 team keeper league.
 
Chaos Commish said:
Keys Myaths said:
Boldin got a little tweak, and an owner panicked, and I got him for peanuts.
What were the peanuts? Again, Boldin went before his ADP in my main online league. I took him, and I ain't interested in trading (unless someone is just goofy in love).
Hines Ward and Kevan Barlow.Again, it depends on your particular league. Talk to the owners in your league...find out what's going on. Most will be pretty transparent.
nice peanuts. the best thing about that trade is that you will never have to waste any thought on whether or not to start barlow.
It's a ten team league.Barlow was my 5th RB.
i've never been in a league with less than 12. i love it when people post their rosters or info on their leagues ans don't qualify it. like: i have manning, palmer, lt, johnson, alexander, caddy, tiki, fitz, moss, to wayne, heap, gates, crumpler. oh yeah, i forgot to mention it's a 6 team keeper league.
I didn't qualify it because nobody cares about my league.I was answering a specific question. Relax. :)
 
Using the stats from an entire preseason instead of singular games would probably be more representative.
I would, but that's not what people are doing.They're basing their overreactions on ONE preseason game at a time, so that's what I'm trying to show.If you want to do the analysis you describe, go for it.
 
Using the stats from an entire preseason instead of singular games would probably be more representative.
I would, but that's not what people are doing.They're basing their overreactions on ONE preseason game at a time, so that's what I'm trying to show.If you want to do the analysis you describe, go for it.
If this were in fact the "definitive" preseason doesn't matter thread, you would have included said analysis :P
 
Keys Myaths said:
If the 2005 preseason was to be believed, you would conclude:

Week 1:

That Steve Smith is pretty mediocre.
:lmao: As I recall, Smith only played two series. During those series he demonstrated that he was completely recovered and maybe even faster. I believe he was targetted more than twice. Anyone watching the pre-season last year would have known they were getting a table pounding buy in the 4-5th round by selecting Smith.

If you really want to support your theory, go pull some week 4 numbers when the starters only played a series at best. Feel free to continue to ignore the pre-season at your own peril, I'll continue to use it to add to my knowledge base.

 
Keys Myaths said:
If the 2005 preseason was to be believed, you would conclude:

Week 1:

That Steve Smith is pretty mediocre.
:lmao: As I recall, Smith only played two series. During those series he demonstrated that he was completely recovered and maybe even faster. I believe he was targetted more than twice. Anyone watching the pre-season last year would have known they were getting a table pounding buy in the 4-5th round by selecting Smith.

If you really want to support your theory, go pull some week 4 numbers when the starters only played a series at best. Feel free to continue to ignore the pre-season at your own peril, I'll continue to use it to add to my knowledge base.
People have been pulling similar numbers all preseason (four rushes for 3 yards, etc.) to "prove" that those players were awful.So, I made the same ground rules. Pulling one example doesn't defeat what I'm doing.

It's interesting how eager people are to use the :lmao: smiley, make a smartass comment, and dismiss everything that way. It's emotion getting in the way of actual facts...and it's really dangerous. People decide they believe one thing, and even when evidence is provided to the contrary, they immediately defend, without even considering the alternative.

It's a common human reaction, and it's understandable...but you need to step back. Believe it, don't believe it, but realize what's going on in your head when you immediately want to dismiss it without even taking it into consideration.

I'm not right about everything. Neither is anyone else. The problem is, people want to THINK they're right, and will defend their "beliefs" to the end, as if challenging those beliefs is a personal attack.

It's not. Once you realize that, and realize that you're not always right (not specifically you, Steven Jackson man, I'm just using your comment as an example, and I know I'm taking it out of context--but I'm doing so to make a point), then you'll realize that you can gain a hell of an advantage by challenging conventional wisdom.

Conventional wisdom is what we're trying to defeat here. If I'm wrong, PROVE I'm wrong. But, I'm going to challenge that "wisdom" every time I see it, and I feel it's wrong--because an edge over conventional wisdom is a HUGE edge for you, no matter what you're talking about.

 
Great post, Keys. Couldn't agree more.

Fantasy players should know their own tendencies, and their limitations. If you can't watch the games objectively, and take it with a grain of salt, then you should stay away from games altogether, and just read the injury reports. That's not to sound superior, I have a hard time evaluating my Raiders. But at least I know it, and just avoid them altogether for the most part (I know, I know, good advice for everyone, har har har).

I wish I had a better memory for this, but I can remember two examples last year where preseason knee jerks helped me out. Steven Jackson had a nice game on nationally televised TV, and one run in particular got shown over and over again. Owners in both my big money leagues forgot that Martz hates running, ignored all questions, and drafted him way too early.

Carson Palmer also had a bad outing last preseason, also televised nationally, I think. Everyone focused on that one game, ignoring his off the charts accuracy he showed down the strtch the year before. I didn't think there was anything shark-like in spotting Palmer's ascension, I thought it was pretty obvious. But he still got drafted behind about 8 QB's. Silly.

Can anyone else remember guys falling that shouldn't have, based on preseason games?

 
Agree with Keys. The only safe conclusions you can draw from the pre-season are that a player is healthy, and to a lesser degree the expected starter/back-up depending on where he is used in the game.

 
Da Guru,

What version of the Bible is that in your sig line? I recognize the end, but the beginning looks unfamiliar!
I don't ever remember so much panic in preseason as there has been this year.
I don't either, and it's not limited to our little world, either, from what I've seen.The main recommendation I want most people to get out of this is to TAKE ADVANTAGE of the people who overreact one way or another. There's SO much value to be had, in a lot of different areas.
I agree. Who are your top 5 way undervalued players affected by panic that you deem will be just fine?
1. Steven Jackson: People see him stuffed a few times, and they want to go nuts. Plus, the Stephen Davis conversation about taking the goalline carries is out of control. The Rams haven't even signed the guy yet, there are other teams after him, and even if he IS signed, it's been ALL speculation as to the goalline back conversation. There's been NO official word on this, yet everyone is bumping Jackson down. Could it happen? Sure. But, Jackson's been knocked down to his floor. If you have owners like that in your league, it's all upside.2. Marvin Harrison: I point out this thread, because I've seen a lot of talk like this in the preseason...that THIS is Wayne's year that he'll break out, and make Harrison into the Issac Bruce of Indy. Wayne gets more receptions than Harrison in one or two games, and every owner is trying to push the panic button. Again, could it happen? Sure. But we hear that every year about these two, and again, with owners like this in your league, it could push Harrison down to his FLOOR value.

3. Chester Taylor: Yeah, he struggled in a preseason game. But, Minnesota has the weapons around him to make him a success. The offensive line is there. The defense is slowly improving. 3 preseason games doesn't change that. Again, could he be a bust? Sure. But, his value is slowly moving down because of a couple of preseason carries, and he's representing pretty good value right now.

4. Drew Bledsoe: The Tony Romo hype has died off some, but it still lingers a little. The TO problems are well documented. I think people forget just how good Bledsoe was WITHOUT TO last year. The preseason has made this more evident. It was a career year, and without TO, I'd have him as about QB14, but the TO situation brings so much upside to him, that I think people have absolutely forgotten in all this mess.

5. Reggie Brown: He's been fairly average this preseason, and people are already pushing the panic button on this kid. He's the #1 target in a pass first, pass second offense. He's pretty talented, he's got a great quarterback, but nobody's talking about him because he hasn't had the "holy crap" preseason game...and people are already talking about him as overrated.
Jackson was stuffed a lot last year too, this isn't just a preseason thing. People were hoping that Linehan would make a big difference but that hasn't seemed to happen thus far. Hence the reason he has so many detractors.
Exactly, and there were plenty of rumblings about Wayne taking over for Marvin last year too.
Not to hijack the thread too badly, but over the last two years:Harrison: 160 receptions, 1259 yards, 27 TDs, age 34 ADP 20

Wayne: 160 receptions, 1265 yards 17 TDs, age 28 ADP 32

Harrison has 10 more TDs, most of the disparity coming from last year, when he had 7 more TDs than Wayne. Fantasy-wise that hurts, but I think that the biggest values on draft day are players who scored relatively few TDs the previous year, and the biggest reaches are those scored a lot. TDs vary too much from year to year to be reliable, but what we've seen is that Manning throws to both of them about equally, and given the age and ADP issues, Wayne is the far better choice imo.

 
Da Guru,

What version of the Bible is that in your sig line? I recognize the end, but the beginning looks unfamiliar!
I don't ever remember so much panic in preseason as there has been this year.
I don't either, and it's not limited to our little world, either, from what I've seen.The main recommendation I want most people to get out of this is to TAKE ADVANTAGE of the people who overreact one way or another. There's SO much value to be had, in a lot of different areas.
I agree. Who are your top 5 way undervalued players affected by panic that you deem will be just fine?
1. Steven Jackson: People see him stuffed a few times, and they want to go nuts. Plus, the Stephen Davis conversation about taking the goalline carries is out of control. The Rams haven't even signed the guy yet, there are other teams after him, and even if he IS signed, it's been ALL speculation as to the goalline back conversation. There's been NO official word on this, yet everyone is bumping Jackson down. Could it happen? Sure. But, Jackson's been knocked down to his floor. If you have owners like that in your league, it's all upside.2. Marvin Harrison: I point out this thread, because I've seen a lot of talk like this in the preseason...that THIS is Wayne's year that he'll break out, and make Harrison into the Issac Bruce of Indy. Wayne gets more receptions than Harrison in one or two games, and every owner is trying to push the panic button. Again, could it happen? Sure. But we hear that every year about these two, and again, with owners like this in your league, it could push Harrison down to his FLOOR value.

3. Chester Taylor: Yeah, he struggled in a preseason game. But, Minnesota has the weapons around him to make him a success. The offensive line is there. The defense is slowly improving. 3 preseason games doesn't change that. Again, could he be a bust? Sure. But, his value is slowly moving down because of a couple of preseason carries, and he's representing pretty good value right now.

4. Drew Bledsoe: The Tony Romo hype has died off some, but it still lingers a little. The TO problems are well documented. I think people forget just how good Bledsoe was WITHOUT TO last year. The preseason has made this more evident. It was a career year, and without TO, I'd have him as about QB14, but the TO situation brings so much upside to him, that I think people have absolutely forgotten in all this mess.

5. Reggie Brown: He's been fairly average this preseason, and people are already pushing the panic button on this kid. He's the #1 target in a pass first, pass second offense. He's pretty talented, he's got a great quarterback, but nobody's talking about him because he hasn't had the "holy crap" preseason game...and people are already talking about him as overrated.
Jackson was stuffed a lot last year too, this isn't just a preseason thing. People were hoping that Linehan would make a big difference but that hasn't seemed to happen thus far. Hence the reason he has so many detractors.
Exactly, and there were plenty of rumblings about Wayne taking over for Marvin last year too.
Not to hijack the thread too badly, but over the last two years:Harrison: 160 receptions, 1259 yards, 27 TDs, age 34 ADP 20

Wayne: 160 receptions, 1265 yards 17 TDs, age 28 ADP 32

Harrison has 10 more TDs, most of the disparity coming from last year, when he had 7 more TDs than Wayne. Fantasy-wise that hurts, but I think that the biggest values on draft day are players who scored relatively few TDs the previous year, and the biggest reaches are those scored a lot. TDs vary too much from year to year to be reliable, but what we've seen is that Manning throws to both of them about equally, and given the age and ADP issues, Wayne is the far better choice imo.
This is one hell of an interesting post, and something I hadn't considered.Thanks.

 
Alright, I've harped in every single thread in here lately that preseason performances do not equal regular season production, and while I've gotten through to most people, some still want to point at 3 rush, 1 yard type performances as panic type situations for their fantasy running backs.

So, I'm going to the past to calm your fears, and to finally make you guys realize--the only thing you should be looking for in the preseason is camp battles, and that your studs don't get hurt.

If the 2005 preseason was to be believed, you would conclude:

Week 1:

Drew Brees would struggle in San Diego.

Carson Palmer would struggle through another year.

Culpepper was set to repeat 2005, and Moore was a stud in the making.

Drew Bledsoe will struggle, and Arizona has a pretty good defense.

Big Ben and that Willie Parker guy are pretty awful.

Brandon Lloyd is going to be AWESOME.

That Steve Smith is pretty mediocre.

Ron Dayne is a stud.

Week 2:

Deuce is going to have a career year.

McNair is back to his old form.

Culpepper and Pennington are fantastic.

Kevin Jones is pretty good, and Charles Rogers is going to break out.

Cadillac Williams is pretty bad.

Edge is absolutely terrible!

Big Ben is terrible again!

THIS is Kevan Barlow's year!

That Larry Fitzgerald is going to struggle.

Julius Jones is ready to go!

Week 3:

Carson Palmer just won't throw touchdowns.

Corey Dillon is great again.

Seriously, Big Ben sucks.

This is Lelie's breakout year.

Shawn Alexander is struggling.

Barlow is way batter than that Frank Gore guy.

Burleson is going to be great.

Week 4 (quite a few teams rested their starters for the entire game):

Drew Bennett's 2005 was no fluke.

Chris Simms is fantastic.

Thomas Jones is pretty bad.

Get Julius Jones quickly!

Big Ben struggles AGAIN.

Man, those Colts are awful.

That Larry Johnson is okay, but nobody special.

Steven Jackson is pretty bad.

Yes, there are games in which people that struggled during the preseason struggled during the regular season, and people who had good games during the preseason did fairly well in the regular season.

But, as this thread shows, there's no direct correlation. If you're really drawing conclusions based on players' performances during the preseason, you might get lucky every once in a while--but you're not going to be able to draw rational conclusions.

So, now that I've calmed everyone down (hopefully), the question to ask is, "How can I take advantage of this?"

Simple.

If your mid-round pick is having a good preseason that's shooting him up draft boards, TRADE HIM. Get good value for him--much more than you think his normal regular season is going to produce. People are going to watch Sportscenter, and conclude that your player is going to be a stud. You know better. Get great value for him.

Trade for those players that are rushing for 3 yards on 5 carries. 5 carries (or even 25 carries), as any statistics major will tell you, is nowhere near a decent sample size. Plus, again, the preseason doesn't matter! Get those players that are "struggling" during the preseason for cheap.

Then, ride them to the championship...and I believe I deserve at least a 2% cut. ;)

In conclusion: STOP PANICKING!

Your players will be fine...or they won't. Some of them will explode, some of them will be busts. However, the preseason has NOTHING to do with which one it will be.
I don't agree that an entire pre-season has nothing to do with how teams function during regular season. Obviously, this is situational, as established, stable teams like San Diego don't need to play LaDainian Tomlinson, yet no-one is worried that he won't be the man come September. But in particular for teams with new coaching staffs (St. Louis) or high-profile new free agents (TO/Dallas), then I think the exhibition season has more importance for fantasy football purposes.I do agree that drawing conclusions about the coming regular season based on any single pre-season game is very wrong-headed, as your post illustrates, but we've had 3 or 4 pre-season games from all the teams to evaluate, and there are some trends that are worthy of considering. There is some weight to be accorded to pre-season, IMO.

For example, if Aaron Brook's most recent 2 games had been as disappointing as his first two pre-season games, everyone would be legitimately worried about the Oakland offense, IMO. Instead, his steady improvement has shown us reasons to be optimistic about Oaklands' passing game (and in particular and most important from the fantasy perspective, Brooks' increasing comfort with/trust in Randy Moss).

Several posters have pointed out in another thread about pre-season that Pittsburgh didn't score a TD during pre-season, yet ended up winning a Super-Bowl. That's all true. However, from the FF perspective, Pittsburgh was only mediocre when it came to passing the ball (25th in yards, 15th in passing TDs), with only Hines Ward (10th fantasy WR) turning in an outstanding season (top-ten) as an individual from their offense. And, even though in aggregate they were outstanding as a running team, Willie Parker appeared at #15 on the RB board at years' end, with Bettis at #36. So, saying that the team won a Super Bowl after a tame pre-season really doesn't tell us much about their players' fantasy performances.

My .02.

Edited to correct some grammar mistakes.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
1. Steven Jackson: People see him stuffed a few times, and they want to go nuts. Plus, the Stephen Davis conversation about taking the goalline carries is out of control. The Rams haven't even signed the guy yet, there are other teams after him, and even if he IS signed, it's been ALL speculation as to the goalline back conversation. There's been NO official word on this, yet everyone is bumping Jackson down. Could it happen? Sure. But, Jackson's been knocked down to his floor. If you have owners like that in your league, it's all upside.
I'm not as high on him as some others as I lived with him last year, and he was constantly dinged up. Week to week it always felt like some nagging injury was going to limit his time and touches, and often times they did just that. He's missed 3 games in his first two seasons due to injury as well, and parts of many others. Now he's got a bad achilles tendon. I'm not going to play that game again. Then there's the new coach/system (who knows how that will turn out), Holt's injury, an unimproved offensive line, Bulger's own fraility and the seemingly endless search for a short yardage back. That's plenty of problems outside of actual preseason game performance. If dropping him down a few spots due to that is panicing in your book, goody for you, but I'd rather try and get a more stable 1st round pick than that - and again all of that has little to nothing to do with preseason performances.
2. Marvin Harrison: I point out this thread, because I've seen a lot of talk like this in the preseason...that THIS is Wayne's year that he'll break out, and make Harrison into the Issac Bruce of Indy. Wayne gets more receptions than Harrison in one or two games, and every owner is trying to push the panic button. Again, could it happen? Sure. But we hear that every year about these two, and again, with owners like this in your league, it could push Harrison down to his FLOOR value.
I"ve done three drafts so far and Harrison has yet to get drafted after Wayne. In two Wayne went a round or two later than Harrison. I'm not seeing any overreaction here - and certainly nothing to do with preseason performances.
3. Chester Taylor: Yeah, he struggled in a preseason game. But, Minnesota has the weapons around him to make him a success. The offensive line is there. The defense is slowly improving. 3 preseason games doesn't change that. Again, could he be a bust? Sure. But, his value is slowly moving down because of a couple of preseason carries, and he's representing pretty good value right now.
He hasn't looked good, he hasn't done much in his carreer, I DON'T see oodles of talent around him at offense, and the offensive line hasn't looked that great to me so far, he's got Mewelde Moore behind him and he could have either of Fiason or Richardson taking short yardage/goal line work away from him. I think he was overrated to start with and he's actually dropping back to where his ADP should have been. I think preseason has started bringing people back to reality, as some were intimating a Priest Holmes like season for this clown.
4. Drew Bledsoe: The Tony Romo hype has died off some, but it still lingers a little. The TO problems are well documented. I think people forget just how good Bledsoe was WITHOUT TO last year. The preseason has made this more evident. It was a career year, and without TO, I'd have him as about QB14, but the TO situation brings so much upside to him, that I think people have absolutely forgotten in all this mess.
Drew may be a bit of a bargain, but Romo looks like a player to me. If Drew goes down, or struggles he might get Bradyed again. Also I don't think he'll get up to last years numbers again this year even if he makes it through the season. He's another one I thought was overrrated to start with and his ADP is now dropping back down to where it should have been - it took preseason for that to happen, but I don't see it as a negative.
5. Reggie Brown: He's been fairly average this preseason, and people are already pushing the panic button on this kid. He's the #1 target in a pass first, pass second offense. He's pretty talented, he's got a great quarterback, but nobody's talking about him because he hasn't had the "holy crap" preseason game...and people are already talking about him as overrated.
You mean the same offense that never seemed to produce a top 30 receiver (I'm talking out my @55 here without looking at the numbers, but the only guy I can think of who's done anything worth discussing outside of T.O. was James Thrash) until T.O. showed up? Brown's good, but I don't see him becomming a super star. He'll be lucky to approach top 18 WR numbers this year, probably closer to 36 WR numbers - regardless of what he does in preseason.People do overreact to some things in preseason (for instance the Mike Bell kool-aid is starting to taste a little stale it seems), but I've seen more people read things right out of preseason analysis than wrong. And your above examples don't really support your point.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Preseason information is just that...information.

You need to know how to process it.

You need to know what each team is trying to accomplish with the preseason effort. With established schemes and players, the answer is nothing. They're saving it for the regular season.

Fantasy sports is an art not a science. I don't establish any hard and fast rules. Just tendencies and trends.

 
Boldin got a little tweak, and an owner panicked, and I got him for peanuts.
What were the peanuts? Again, Boldin went before his ADP in my main online league. I took him, and I ain't interested in trading (unless someone is just goofy in love).
Hines Ward and Kevan Barlow.Again, it depends on your particular league. Talk to the owners in your league...find out what's going on. Most will be pretty transparent.
I had a guy in my 12 team league just flat out drop Dom Davis after drafting him in the second round. I promptly dropped Samkon Gado and picked him up. I know he is dinged up, but our rosters are deep enought that keeping him won't hurt until the bye weeks come up. He could of at least tried to trade him. I thought the whole thing was hilarious. That was the single greatest pre-season knee-jerk reaction I'd ever seen.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top