The (Disg-)race for Number One (1 Viewer)

[Jeff Pasquino]

Both teams are 2-13 and "fighting" for the first pick in the NFL draft.

Who loses / wins and why?

Anyone broken down the draft order yet?

 

[Bankerguy]

IF both lose...which they will.

Detroit will get the first pick based on strength of schedule.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Here's what I have right now, without any tiebreaking:

Detroit 2-13

Oakland 2-13

Cleveland 4-11

Tampa Bay 4-11

Houston 5-10

Arizona 5-10

Washington 5-10

San Francisco 6-9

Minnesota 6-9

Miami 6-9

 

[davidwb]

but is there a clear #1 pick that you'd want to get in the draft? it looks like the draft is pretty deep this year -- better to trade down for more picks.

are you better able to do that from the #1 or the #2 slot?

 

[Andy Dufresne]

2007 DRAFT 1st-ROUND

SELECTION ORDER

(Ed note: W-L %s based on all 16 opponents this season for each team)

December 26, 2006

# Team W-L Opponents' W-L %

1 Detroit 2-13 .529

2 Oakland 2-13 .546

3 Cleveland 4-11 .533

4 Tampa Bay 4-11 .542

5 Arizona 5-10 .492

6 Houston 5-10 .513

7 (1)Washington 5-10 513

8 Minnesota 6-9 .475

9 San Francisco 6-9 .496

10 Miami 6-9 .538

11 St. Louis 7-8 .458

12 Atlanta 7-8 .458

13 Carolina 7-8 .483

14 Green Bay 7-8 .500

15 Pittsburgh 7-8 .508

16 New York Giants 7-8 529

17 Buffalo 7-8 .571

18 New England (from Seattle) 8-7 .446

19 Kansas City 8-7 .496

20 Jacksonville 8-7 .525

21 Cincinnati 8-7 .533

22 Tennessee 8-7 .567

23 Dallas 9-6 .454

24 New York Jets 9-6 .475

25 Philadelphia 9-6 .479

26 (1)Denver 9-6 .521

27 New Orleans 10-5 .458

28 New England 11-4 .504

29 Indianapolis 11-4 .508

30 Baltimore 12-3 .471

31 Chicago 13-2 .417

32 San Diego 13-2 .458

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Thanks Andy.

I'm sure we'll update this next week.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

If no upsets this weekend, any changes to this order ?

 

[Bankerguy]

If no upsets this weekend, any changes to this order ?

I am sure there will be movement in the middle teams (8-7 and 7-8 teams).Top and botom probably won't move too much...imo.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

If no upsets this weekend, any changes to this order ?

It looks like Minnesota would lose by winning.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

NE looks poised to move up if they wanted to, with 2 picks between 15 and 30.

Would they do that, and for whom?

 

[Bri]

If Cleveland gets a good RB......

 

[snogger]

If no upsets this weekend, any changes to this order ?

It looks like Minnesota would lose by winning.

As a Viking fan I have to wear a this week as I'll be cheering for a good performance from Jackson, but a loss at the end for a top 10 pick..

 

[Cannon Fodder]

If no upsets this weekend, any changes to this order ?

It looks like Minnesota would lose by winning.

Yeah, the same goes for Buffalo. I was disappointed when they lost to Tennesee cause I knew it was gonna be the worst case scenario I was thinking about at the beginning of the season. Not good enough to get into the playoffs, but not bad enough to get a good draft pick.And look at Buffalo with the toughest scedule out there.

 

[Banger]

If Cleveland gets a good RB......

I think that's a strong possibility. They certainly need one.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

If Cleveland gets a good RB......

I think that's a strong possibility. They certainly need one.

Wouldn't surprise me to see them take Adrian Peterson.

 

[Bankerguy]

If Cleveland gets a good RB......

I think that's a strong possibility. They certainly need one.

Wouldn't surprise me to see them take Adrian Peterson.

Totally agree.

 

[Bri]

NE looks poised to move up if they wanted to, with 2 picks between 15 and 30.Would they do that, and for whom?

BB and Pioli will probably sit around and wait as long as they can, then trade down. That'd be my guess.IF a 1st= 2 2nds or a 2nd and a 3rd I think they'd bite on that trade.The LBer age and lack of WRs is a painfully obvious need. I would love a top top top CB. Is there an especially great one in this draft? After the way Samuel has played, wow would that make their D tough. Seems to me, NFL teams used to try to get two top CBs then that sorta became passe. One OK CB seems to be the norm these days.

 

[Cannon Fodder]

If Cleveland gets a good RB......

I think that's a strong possibility. They certainly need one.

Wouldn't surprise me to see them take Adrian Peterson.

Totally agree.

If Cleveland doesn't take him would Arizona choose him with Edge there? Cause I don't see him getting past the Texans.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

If Cleveland gets a good RB......

I think that's a strong possibility. They certainly need one.

Wouldn't surprise me to see them take Adrian Peterson.

Totally agree.

If Cleveland doesn't take him would Arizona choose him with Edge there? Cause I don't see him getting past the Texans.

Doubtful. They'd likely choose between Alan Branch, Gaines Adams, Leon Hall, and as a reach Laron Landry.

 

[Foosball God]

but is there a clear #1 pick that you'd want to get in the draft? it looks like the draft is pretty deep this year -- better to trade down for more picks.are you better able to do that from the #1 or the #2 slot?

I think the #1 pick has a chance to move down because of Brady Quinn, but I don't see a lot of movement for the 2 - 5 teams.

 

[PatsWillWin]

NE looks poised to move up if they wanted to, with 2 picks between 15 and 30.Would they do that, and for whom?

BB and Pioli will probably sit around and wait as long as they can, then trade down. That'd be my guess.IF a 1st= 2 2nds or a 2nd and a 3rd I think they'd bite on that trade.The LBer age and lack of WRs is a painfully obvious need. I would love a top top top CB. Is there an especially great one in this draft? After the way Samuel has played, wow would that make their D tough. Seems to me, NFL teams used to try to get two top CBs then that sorta became passe. One OK CB seems to be the norm these days.

If you look at the Belichick/Pioli track record, they typically do not draft LB's early in the draft. This is, I would think, because the complexity of the defensive schemes makes it tough for a rookie who has never played in the NFL to come in and contribute soon. They've gone with veterans to fill LB holes (Vrabel, Colvin, Seau). Even Banta-Cain who is getting PT now has been in the system a long time and was, I believe, a 7th round pick. The last big name LB I remember the Patriots drafting was Andy Katzenmoyer (I'm pretty young), but that was not under the Belichick regime.I agree that a LB is a glaring need...just as I thought it was last season. They really need an ILB so they can keep Vrabel on the outside, where he's clearly better. Hopefully they can grab someone in free agency.I definitely think corner is a priority - I just don't see them getting a deal done with Samuel. I think he's a very good corner, but I think that he's going to get $ like a GREAT corner after the season he's having. And, of course, drafting a WR is also possible.And I think we could use another TE or two. <_<

 

[Bri]

If Cleveland gets a good RB......

I think that's a strong possibility. They certainly need one.

I hope they either go Peterson or trade down.My problem is Romeo and the talk coming out around the Browns organization. I like him and have much respect for him. However, that team can not rebuild again. If Romeo's gone or if there's all this second guessing because he's "on his last legs" that would be horrible for them. They need the best player for their team not one that will necessarily help save coach his job or be a "safe" pick. Someone needs to get Braylon's mom to smack him and tell him to "grow up". He showed his skill earlier this year and after his injury, I'd expect he and Winslow to be even better next year.I liked Anderson way more than I ever liked Frye. I don't think he's the prototypical QB most would like their team to have but I hope they stick with him. At #3 a franchise QB is always a possibility. 1 in 50(or whatever) win their first year so selecting one would be kissing Romeo's job goodbye.Trading down, geesh they've got needs. Romeo needs some darn 'backers. It's amazing how much trouble that guy(well known for coaching Ds where linebackers flourished) is having trouble linebackers. McGinest is like 90 years old and he doesn't count.IIRC They actually have some terrific depth at C once they're all healthy. Maybe they can trade one.As a Pats fan, I'm rooting for Romeo. If they take a QB, I'll be counting the days til he's "our" DC or Assistant Head Coach though

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Would the Pats be interested in Ted Ginn since he could play both ways?

Seems like he's a receiver in the Deion Branch mold and like Troy Brown they could use him on offense and defense.

 

[BGP]

If Cleveland gets a good RB......

I think that's a strong possibility. They certainly need one.

Wouldn't surprise me to see them take Adrian Peterson.

Totally agree.

Just screw every single one of you guys, ok?Savage should be fired if he takes Peterson. Build an OL.

 

[Bri]

If Cleveland doesn't take him would Arizona choose him with Edge there? Cause I don't see him getting past the Texans.

Offensively, Arizona would "have to" take a lineman IMO. There's just no pressing need at a skill position, not in the slightest. In fact, trading away Arrington for a meatball sub (or whatever he's worth) should be considerred IMO.I'd bet they go defense though

 

[PatsWillWin]

Would the Pats be interested in Ted Ginn since he could play both ways? Seems like he's a receiver in the Deion Branch mold and like Troy Brown they could use him on offense and defense.

I don't think that will be a factor. They'd certainly be interested in Ginn, but I don't think they'd draft him with one eye on defense. I'm sure they hate the fact that they have to use Troy Brown on defense; it's not something that's planned, it happens because of the large number of injuries they seem to have to the DB's every year. If they take a player in the first round of the draft, I don't think they want to risk injury playing on defense - Seymour missed about 6 weeks last season with an injury he sustained playing fullback on a short yardage play. He hasn't played any offense since. Even Vrabel hasn't played as much offense as he has in years passed although he is still in some of the goal line formations. Brown is a special case, and something that I think they would avoid if they could.

 

[Bri]

Savage should be fired if he takes Peterson. Build an OL.

T maybe but the interior seems pretty solid to me

 

[Andy Dufresne]

If Cleveland gets a good RB......

I think that's a strong possibility. They certainly need one.

Wouldn't surprise me to see them take Adrian Peterson.

Totally agree.

Just screw every single one of you guys, ok?Savage should be fired if he takes Peterson. Build an OL.

There are seven rounds in the draft, guy. And at the #3 pick the only guy that's worth it is Joe Thomas. Who wouldn't be a bad pick either. But for the talent available (I think Peterson is a STUD), I think it's better for the Browns to go RB than OL at the #3 pick.

 

[PatsWillWin]

If Cleveland doesn't take him would Arizona choose him with Edge there? Cause I don't see him getting past the Texans.

Offensively, Arizona would "have to" take a lineman IMO. There's just no pressing need at a skill position, not in the slightest. In fact, trading away Arrington for a meatball sub (or whatever he's worth) should be considerred IMO.I'd bet they go defense though

If Thomas is there, I think Arizona would definitely take him. But if not, there's really no OL prospect that warrants this high of a pick.And J.J. Arrington is worth nothing.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

If Cleveland doesn't take him would Arizona choose him with Edge there? Cause I don't see him getting past the Texans.

Offensively, Arizona would "have to" take a lineman IMO. There's just no pressing need at a skill position, not in the slightest. In fact, trading away Arrington for a meatball sub (or whatever he's worth) should be considerred IMO.I'd bet they go defense though

If Thomas is there, I think Arizona would definitely take him. But if not, there's really no OL prospect that warrants this high of a pick.And J.J. Arrington is worth nothing.

If Thomas is there at the Cards pick, he's a lock. Unfortunately for them, it's doubful he will be.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Savage should be fired if he takes Peterson. Build an OL.

T maybe but the interior seems pretty solid to me

Sad that it sounds like Bentley will likely miss all of 2007 due to the staph infection in his knee.What a cursed franchise.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Guys, it is just such a Lions move to take Brady Quinn. I feel bad for the guy already.

 

[Bri]

Savage should be fired if he takes Peterson. Build an OL.

T maybe but the interior seems pretty solid to me

Sad that it sounds like Bentley will likely miss all of 2007 due to the staph infection in his knee.What a cursed franchise.

REALLY?Wow I must have missed that.I understand it as the worst of infections but would figure cleaning it, antibiotics, etc and it would heal and he'd be OK much much quicker than that.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Guys, it is just such a Lions move to take Brady Quinn. I feel bad for the guy already.

Brady Quinn is a better prospect than Alex Smith was.

 

[PatsWillWin]

Guys, it is just such a Lions Chargers move to take Brady Quinn Eli Manning. I feel bad for the guy already.

Just sayin.

 

[dudaman]

NE looks poised to move up if they wanted to, with 2 picks between 15 and 30.Would they do that, and for whom?

BB and Pioli will probably sit around and wait as long as they can, then trade down. That'd be my guess.IF a 1st= 2 2nds or a 2nd and a 3rd I think they'd bite on that trade.The LBer age and lack of WRs is a painfully obvious need. I would love a top top top CB. Is there an especially great one in this draft? After the way Samuel has played, wow would that make their D tough. Seems to me, NFL teams used to try to get two top CBs then that sorta became passe. One OK CB seems to be the norm these days.

If you look at the Belichick/Pioli track record, they typically do not draft LB's early in the draft. This is, I would think, because the complexity of the defensive schemes makes it tough for a rookie who has never played in the NFL to come in and contribute soon. They've gone with veterans to fill LB holes (Vrabel, Colvin, Seau). Even Banta-Cain who is getting PT now has been in the system a long time and was, I believe, a 7th round pick. The last big name LB I remember the Patriots drafting was Andy Katzenmoyer (I'm pretty young), but that was not under the Belichick regime.I agree that a LB is a glaring need...just as I thought it was last season. They really need an ILB so they can keep Vrabel on the outside, where he's clearly better. Hopefully they can grab someone in free agency.I definitely think corner is a priority - I just don't see them getting a deal done with Samuel. I think he's a very good corner, but I think that he's going to get $ like a GREAT corner after the season he's having. And, of course, drafting a WR is also possible.And I think we could use another TE or two.

Not knowing the free agent pool next year - I will say that a safety HAS TO be high on the priority list. The whole OL and DL is signed thru 2008 and assuming they pony up the money for Samuel, the logical choice for one of those should be WR and/or Safety - and since we know how well first round WR's have performed over the years relative to the lower rounds, you are left with a safety.Rodney's next injury will be his last and Eugene Wilson just doesn't do it for me.

 

[pacman_fl]

NE looks poised to move up if they wanted to, with 2 picks between 15 and 30.Would they do that, and for whom?

BB and Pioli will probably sit around and wait as long as they can, then trade down. That'd be my guess.IF a 1st= 2 2nds or a 2nd and a 3rd I think they'd bite on that trade.The LBer age and lack of WRs is a painfully obvious need. I would love a top top top CB. Is there an especially great one in this draft? After the way Samuel has played, wow would that make their D tough. Seems to me, NFL teams used to try to get two top CBs then that sorta became passe. One OK CB seems to be the norm these days.

From everything I read, this is a good your for CB's. I can't speak to the talent versus what is currently in the league but there is depth and after the Top 2/3, there is a a group that equal enough that you can trade down or wait on the position. From a Packer perspective, this is good news since I think that would be a good 2nd round pick. Also, from a Packer perspective, this weeks game is big in many ways. As fans, you always want to see your team in the playoffs. BUT, the win drops them that much further down the draft order and potentially out of the "big play potential" guys that are out there - Lynch, Jarrett, Ginn (though I am not as high as others on him), Landry (definite safety need as an upgrade to Manual).

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

The main contenders for the top two picks have to be Brady Quinn, Joe Thomas, and Calvin Johnson. One interesting dark horse is JaMarcus Russell - I could see Russell at #2 if Detroit picks first and takes Quinn. Russell's physical tools are ridiculous, and I could definitely see Al Davis convincing himself that Russell is "the answer" despite his long track record of passing on QBs in the first.

 

[PatsWillWin]

NE looks poised to move up if they wanted to, with 2 picks between 15 and 30.

Would they do that, and for whom?

BB and Pioli will probably sit around and wait as long as they can, then trade down. That'd be my guess.IF a 1st= 2 2nds or a 2nd and a 3rd I think they'd bite on that trade.

The LBer age and lack of WRs is a painfully obvious need.

I would love a top top top CB. Is there an especially great one in this draft? After the way Samuel has played, wow would that make their D tough. Seems to me, NFL teams used to try to get two top CBs then that sorta became passe. One OK CB seems to be the norm these days.

If you look at the Belichick/Pioli track record, they typically do not draft LB's early in the draft. This is, I would think, because the complexity of the defensive schemes makes it tough for a rookie who has never played in the NFL to come in and contribute soon. They've gone with veterans to fill LB holes (Vrabel, Colvin, Seau). Even Banta-Cain who is getting PT now has been in the system a long time and was, I believe, a 7th round pick. The last big name LB I remember the Patriots drafting was Andy Katzenmoyer (I'm pretty young), but that was not under the Belichick regime.I agree that a LB is a glaring need...just as I thought it was last season. They really need an ILB so they can keep Vrabel on the outside, where he's clearly better. Hopefully they can grab someone in free agency.

I definitely think corner is a priority - I just don't see them getting a deal done with Samuel. I think he's a very good corner, but I think that he's going to get $ like a GREAT corner after the season he's having.

And, of course, drafting a WR is also possible.

And I think we could use another TE or two.

Not knowing the free agent pool next year - I will say that a safety HAS TO be high on the priority list. Our whole OL and DL is signed thru 2008 and assuming they pony up the money for Samuel, the logical choice for one of those should be WR and/or Safety - and since we know how well first round WR's have performed over the years relative to the lower rounds, you are left with a safety.Rodney's next injury will be his last and Eugene Wilson just doesn't do it for me.

I agree to an extent; safety would probably be their next need. I just think that the lack of depth at corner is rivaled only by that at wide receier - assuming they don't re-sign Samuel.Link to FA safeties: http://www.theredzone.org/2007/freeagents/....asp?Position=S

Harrison looked great during the Jacksonville game - he didn't take it easy or anything his first game back, he was up on the line pass rushing on the first drive. It was good to see.

Also, I think the Patriots have had reasonable success with guys like Artrell Hawkins in there with Rodney's absences. I have no problem with Eugene Wilson when Harrison is in there; he seems to play better or know where he's supposed to be better when Harrison is back there with him. But yeah, sometimes the guy looks like a trainwreck.

ETA:

Starks, Duane UFA Raiders

ETAII: Sorry.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Guys, it is just such a Lions Chargers move to take Brady Quinn Eli Manning. I feel bad for the guy already.

Just sayin.

If Matt Millen is running the team, no way they get a Eli-Rivers type deal for BQ.

 

[PatsWillWin]

Guys, it is just such a Lions Chargers move to take Brady Quinn Eli Manning. I feel bad for the guy already.

Just sayin.

If Matt Millen is running the team, no way they get a Eli-Rivers type deal for BQ.

Not what I meant. Just saying that sometimes a situation that looks terrible can soon thereafter not be so terrible. The Lions can't suck FOREVER, can they?

 

[Foosball God]

Guys, it is just such a Lions Chargers move to take Brady Quinn Eli Manning. I feel bad for the guy already.

Just sayin.

The Lions are on a level of craptitude that no other franchise could hope to attain.

 

[Bri]

Not knowing the free agent pool next year - I will say that a safety HAS TO be high on the priority list. The whole OL and DL is signed thru 2008 and assuming they pony up the money for Samuel, the logical choice for one of those should be WR and/or Safety - and since we know how well first round WR's have performed over the years relative to the lower rounds, you are left with a safety.Rodney's next injury will be his last and Eugene Wilson just doesn't do it for me.

I don't disagree with ya about Rodney but I'm betting they get a safety via free agency. It seems like a position in BBs D that requires a veteran

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Guys, it is just such a Lions Chargers move to take Brady Quinn Eli Manning. I feel bad for the guy already.

Just sayin.

If Matt Millen is running the team, no way they get a Eli-Rivers type deal for BQ.

Not what I meant. Just saying that sometimes a situation that looks terrible can soon thereafter not be so terrible. The Lions can't suck FOREVER, can they?

as long as that clown is GM, they have no hope. And I for one think he is coming back. Ford loves him.So the lions only hope is that someone else is very much in love with Quinn and he can be dealt.

 

[PatsWillWin]

Not knowing the free agent pool next year - I will say that a safety HAS TO be high on the priority list. The whole OL and DL is signed thru 2008 and assuming they pony up the money for Samuel, the logical choice for one of those should be WR and/or Safety - and since we know how well first round WR's have performed over the years relative to the lower rounds, you are left with a safety.Rodney's next injury will be his last and Eugene Wilson just doesn't do it for me.

I don't disagree with ya about Rodney but I'm betting they get a safety via free agency. It seems like a position in BBs D that requires a veteran

Actually I think they've had a fair amount of success with inexperienced guys at corner/safety. Ellis Hobbs stepped right in last season as a rookie. Samuel was a full-time starter by his second year, and Randall Gay was starting games by the end of his rookie season. Eugene Wilson was also playing a lot/starting his rookie season. Some of these may have been partially due to injuries but when healthy, these guys have done alright.I'd say the same at the DL as far as rookies playing relatively soon. The only position that seems to consistently require a veteran's experience is LB, IMO.

 

[dgreen]

The Lions can't suck FOREVER, can they?

9 postseasons in 50 years. That's FOREVER X 5 in the world of sports.

 

[Despyzer]

Haven't they been doing a coin flip in recent years to determine draft position in the case of ties?

 

[Foosball God]

The Lions can't suck FOREVER, can they?

9 postseasons, and only 1 postseason win, in 50 years. That's FOREVER X 5 in the world of sports.

Fixed.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Haven't they been doing a coin flip in recent years to determine draft position in the case of ties?

only if the teams SOS is tied.

 

[slowkidz]

If Cleveland gets a good RB......

I think that's a strong possibility. They certainly need one.

Wouldn't surprise me to see them take Adrian Peterson.

Totally agree.

Just screw every single one of you guys, ok?Savage should be fired if he takes Peterson. Build an OL.

There are seven rounds in the draft, guy. And at the #3 pick the only guy that's worth it is Joe Thomas. Who wouldn't be a bad pick either. But for the talent available (I think Peterson is a STUD), I think it's better for the Browns to go RB than OL at the #3 pick.

Either way, each is a solid pick at #3. IMO, I would rather see them go with the OL, as a new RB would still look as bad as Droughns there without holes to run through. If Savage brings in a quality FA on the line, then I would be more comfortable with picking Peterson #3.