The Earliest You Have Seen LJ Drafted? (1 Viewer)

[Lord of the Rings]

10 Team KeeperHolmes went 1.06GET THIS>>>>I grabbed LJ at 12.9 as my RB #5BUT WAIT THERE'S MORE>>>>The Holmes owner passed up on LJ in the 12th and selected Ricky "Up in Smoke" W.STILL MORE>>>>I drafted Ronnie Brown in the 9th and Ricky wasn't even on my radar in the 12th.WHAT DO YOU THINK>>>>>Maybe I should swap LJ for Ricky

 

[tandl71]

Let's assume something...

If the following RBs were off the table at 4.12/5.01--

Tomlinson

Holmes

Alexander

James

McAllister

McGahee

Davis

Kevin Jones

Julius Jones

Barber

Portis

Dillon

Westbrook

Rudi Johnson

Lewis

Ahman Green

Steven Jackson

Martin

Jordan

Barlow

Tatum Bell

Taylor

Carnell Williams

Chris Brown

--would you consider drafting Larry Johnson as a RB3 over the likes of Ronnie Brown, DeShaun Foster or Thomas Jones? I'd really like to have a RB3 locked up by the early 5th round, because I doubt there will be ANY starters available at the 6.12/7.01 turn.

 

[ravnzfan]

This should end the debate.

His next two picks:

5.10 T Jones RB, CHI

6.3 Pittsburgh Steeler Defense?!

Drafting LJ early might be a gamble that pays off, but I can no longer consider it a move done by a genius. I'm sure drafting PIT and a #4 RB before a starting QB and two starting WRs will pay off...

what's with the infacuation of "not having a starting QB" by the 6.3?in my 12 team/keep 4 league, LJ was not protected...I took him 1.6 (so actually 5th round, considering keepers)

BTW...Deuce, Westy, Horn, Bruce were my 4

I took Brooks 5.6 (=9th round) and Greise 9.6 (=13th)

about the guy you're blowing up here...in TJones, he has his solid RB3, plus his gamble is LJ gets all the work come FF playoff time---a decent gamble, if you ask me

personally, I'd have taken the Raven-D before Pitt, but that's to be expected

there is a ton of QB/WR value this year, given the ADP's of solid quality players like Brady, Delhomme and Plummer going in the 8th, along with Stokley and driver in the 7th today--and TJ Houzy, CRogers and Stalworth in the 8th

I would be MORE apt to take LJ in the 5th than the Padre at 1.4, as I'd not want to take LJ in the 4th (too early) and I'd be royally pissed if he went 5.2, just in front of me

 

[Marvelous]

Some comments:1. Before looking at any other fantasy football info, I though Holmes would be the top pick. I was quite surprised to see that LT is the nearly unanamous pick at 1.01.2. I have the 3rd pick of a 10 team league. Assuming LT is gone, I will get either Holmes (my top choice) or Alexander. I will probably try to handcuff at 5.03 or more likely, 6.08. Anything higher than that will probably be too rich for me. As for waiting longer, most picks in the 7th round and later don't pan out that well, so it makes sense to do the handcuff.

 

[cosjobs]

So will you be taking Priest over LT if you have the opportunity Andy Griffith? I still can't find a reason not to invest in the KC running game! I don't mind taking LJ in the 6th...

I haven't had the opportunity, but if I did I would consider it. Personally, I place the odds of Priest playing in weeks 14-16 are maybe 50-50, so I would probably pass him up.However, Priest at 1.01 is far from foolish, and I am amazed that he NEVER goes 1.01.

The way I look at it, Priest + LJ should be worth about 4 PPG more than LT. In other words, drafting Priest at 1.01 + LJ at 5.01 should yield you the same "value" as LT at 1.01 + some guy with VBD "value" of 64 at 5.01. In fact it is slightly better, since concentrating value on fewer players is always better.

Now it very much depends on your format, but in say a 12-team, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, no flex format (PPR), you aren't going to find guys with that VBD at 5.01, except maybe Witten. Based on FBG projections, 64 VBD is for guys like Rudi Johnson, Andre Johnson, TO, Gates.

Now like I said, I'd rather go LT at 1.01 and LJ at 5.01 and gamble on an injury to Priest... but Priest/LJ is also smart (and will beat LT/Coles most likely).

In my $1K League, the first choice was Priest.I was amazed and took LT at #2.An early WR run left Ahman Green at 2.11 and I took him. I came back with GOnzo in R3.

In rounds 4-5 the priest owner took 2 WRs and when LJ was still around at 6.11, I gobbled him up to the utter dismay of the Priest owner who had the enxt pick.

That's the prob (IMO) of drafting Priest, 3-4-5 is too early to handcuff and 6 is too late.

EDIT TO ADD- my team thru 7: LT, Ahman, LJ, GOnzo, Bulger, Coles and Moulds.

 

[glumpy]

I was prepared to handcuff LJ in the 4th round of my draft just completed tonight. Somebody inexplicably snatched him in the 3rd.

 

[GOroute]

I got Holmes at 1.02. And then got LJ at 8.11.HOLLA!!!

 

[mili22]

I took Priest with 1.04 and another owner took LJ in the 3rd before my pick. Wasn't worried because I knew Priest was #1 without alot of carries going to LJ ( maybe 10 per game to keep Priest fresh). Ended up trading Priest and Frerotte for Mewelde Moore, Michael Bennett, Cedric Wilson and TB Def.

 

[whole-show]

I took Priest with 1.04 and another owner took LJ in the 3rd before my pick. Wasn't worried because I knew Priest was #1 without alot of carries going to LJ ( maybe 10 per game to keep Priest fresh). Ended up trading Priest and Frerotte for Mewelde Moore, Michael Bennett, Cedric Wilson and TB Def.

 

[hydroxybear]

I just took him at 4.01 last night in a redraft. Call me crazy, but with the running backs left on the board, LJ offered the most value. Plus I was drafting from the 10 spot and knew for a fact LJ wasn't making his way back to me. I know it was probably a round+ too early, but I wanted him on my squad, bottom line.

 

[Firekaps]

I just took him at 4.01 last night in a redraft. Call me crazy, but with the running backs left on the board, LJ offered the most value. Plus I was drafting from the 10 spot and knew for a fact LJ wasn't making his way back to me. I know it was probably a round+ too early, but I wanted him on my squad, bottom line.

This is the point I keep trying to make in these threads. To try and elaborate, even though LJ is NOT a starter, there is a point in drafts (later 4th-6th depending on league size, starting position reqs, etc.) that he simply represents more value than other players on the board. LJ represents value in 3 ways. 1) PH gets hurt. 2) As the season wears on PH owner starts to realize he needs LJ and you can get a player in trade. 3) You trade for PH at better value.

IMHO, the chances of drafting LJ and him being a nothing all year are slim to none. He will either become a starter, allow you to trade FOR PH cheaply, or allow you to get a good player in return later in the year, who will represent better value (and certainty) to you at week 6 then in the draft.

Let's say you pick LJ at 5.05 and pass on a group of 3 WRs MClay, DBennett and Mushin. Of those 3 WRs, it is likely that one of them gets hurt and/or has a "bad" year. If you pick LJ, and then a WR in the next round, say, LColes or SMoss, you have a pretty decent chance of the 6th round WR performing = to the 5th rounder that you passed on for LJ. And, you have LJ, who, as stated above, is a virtual lock to present value to you and your team at some point in the season.

To wrap, if you have confidence in your drafting ability, drafting LJ in the 4th-6th is the way to go, whether you own PH or not.

 

[BoltBacker]

I drafted Holmes at 1.3 in a 12 teamer that starts 2 RBs and 3 WRs.

Some dolt at 1.10 drafted like this:

1.10 Portis

2.3 J Jones

3.10 Burleson

4.3 LJ?!

Taking a backup RB before taking his starting QB, two starting WRs and he won't pick again for 18 picks.....smooth....

I changed my mind.You're right, that guy was a dolt.

 

[nightmare]

Pretty soon people will be taking LJ at 1.2 and handcuffing Priest in the 5th.....

happening sooner then we thought

 

[trader jake]

i recall getting laughed at for drafting LJ early 4th in zealots grange masters league last year...i laughed all the way to the title game

it will be interesting to see where the back-up chief RB's get drafted this season

 

[NoFBinLA]

This is the funniest thread I've read in a while.

What genuis!

As someone who grabbed LJ in the middle rounds last year, but never touch fragile priest I laughed all the way to the championship game.

Thanks for digging this up!

 

[gang-wars]

pissed away a 3.3 pick with Owens?  Are you high?

Which do you think is more likely: Holmes getting hurt so that Johnson takes over as the KC featured RB or Owens doing/saying something incredibly stupid & ending up suspended?

Man Pony Boy is a GOD.

 

[The Duff Man]

I won the championship and he didn't make the playoffs, no QB and no WRs hurts

My championship lineup:

QB Plummer

RB Dunn

RB C Brown

WR/TE C Johnson

WR/TE C Cooley (FA pickup)

WR/TE D Clark (FA pickup)

K, D

 

[The Duff Man]

Bitter?

Of course. But I am not trading for him. Let the guy struggle at WR all year (ppr league). I've got:1.3 Holmes

2.10 C Johnson

3.3 Owens

I can get Taylor, Moore, Dunn or a host of other RBs in rounds 4-7 and still be OK.

He had no WRs all year. I picked up Dunn and C Brown in the mid rounds and rode them to the championship when Priest went down.

 

[BoltBacker]

I won the championship and he didn't make the playoffs, no QB and no WRs hurts

My championship lineup:

QB Plummer

RB Dunn

RB C Brown

WR/TE C Johnson

WR/TE C Cooley (FA pickup)

WR/TE D Clark (FA pickup)

K, D

Well, since Brown and Dunn were ADP 3rd/4th rounders last year that leads me to believe either;a) you played in a league full of people you met on the short bus and were able to draft those two players much later than any of the rest of us

b) your teams were only comprised of 6-8 player teams

c) you broke your own rules of taking a backup RB before you had a starting QB

Based on the information you've posted(very high first round and very high third round picks were a complete bust.... yet you still won the title) I'm guessing the answer is "a". Congrats either way, and this year take LT in the second round P.Manning somewhere in the midrounds and Gates towards the tale end of the draft.

 

[The Duff Man]

Well, since Brown and Dunn were ADP 3rd/4th rounders last year that leads me to believe either;

a) you played in a league full of people you met on the short bus and were able to draft those two players much later than any of the rest of us

b) your teams were only comprised of 6-8 player teams

c) you broke your own rules of taking a backup RB before you had a starting QB

Based on the information you've posted(very high first round and very high third round picks were a complete bust.... yet you still won the title) I'm guessing the answer is "a". Congrats either way, and this year take LT in the second round P.Manning somewhere in the midrounds and Gates towards the tale end of the draft.

Wow. Drafting Dunn in the 4th and C Brown in the 6th really is equivalent to getting LT in the 2nd and Gates at the end. Maybe I'll do that this year and win again! Thanks for the advice! It's top notch analysis like this that keeps me coming back to FBG.

For the record my rule is not to draft an NFL BACKUP RB before my starting QB. Point to me which of Dunn and C Brown were backup NFL RBs last year?

 

[The Duff Man]

The first six rounds of what I am now calling "The Guppy League" done in late August.

1.01 BuckeyeArt Tomlinson, LaDainian RB SDC

1.02 Overpaid Players Alexander, Shaun RB SEA

1.03 The Duff Men Holmes, Priest RB KCC

1.04 UPSman Davis, Domanick RB HOU

1.05 gulf coast sharks James, Edgerrin RB IND

1.06 Osprey McGahee, Willis RB BUF

1.07 Sportz Genius McAllister, Deuce RB NOS

1.08 Astros Green, Ahman RB GBP

1.09 Faulk You..... Moss, Randy WR OAK

1.10 Zippernecks Manning, Peyton QB IND

1.11 SlapNutz 1 Portis, Clinton RB WAS

1.12 Callous Doughboys Lewis, Jamal RB BAL

2.01 Callous Doughboys Dillon, Corey RB NEP

2.02 SlapNutz 1 Jones, Julius RB DAL

2.03 Zippernecks Jones, Kevin RB DET

2.04 Faulk You..... Holt, Torry WR STL

2.05 Astros Harrison, Marvin WR IND

2.06 Sportz Genius Barber, Tiki RB NYG

2.07 Osprey Westbrook, Brian RB PHI

2.08 gulf coast sharks Johnson, Rudi RB CIN

2.09 UPSman Jordan, LaMont RB OAK

2.10 The Duff Men Johnson, Chad WR CIN

2.11 Overpaid Players Martin, Curtis RB NYJ

2.12 BuckeyeArt Jackson, Steven RB STL

3.01 BuckeyeArt Culpepper, Daunte QB MIN

3.02 Overpaid Players Gonzalez, Tony TE KCC

3.03 The Duff Men Owens, Terrell WR PHI

3.04 UPSman Walker, Javon WR GBP

3.05 gulf coast sharks Boldin, Anquan WR ARI

3.06 Osprey Horn, Joe WR NOS

3.07 Sportz Genius Wayne, Reggie WR IND

3.08 Astros Johnson, Andre WR HOU

3.09 Faulk You..... Clayton, Michael WR TBB

3.10 Zippernecks Bell, Tatum RB DEN

3.11 SlapNutz 1 Burleson, Nate WR MIN

3.12 Callous Doughboys McNabb, Donovan QB PHI

4.01 Callous Doughboys Jackson, Darrell WR SEA

4.02 SlapNutz 1 Johnson, Larry RB KCC

4.03 Zippernecks Williams, Roy WR DET

4.04 Faulk You..... Bulger, Marc QB STL

4.05 UPSman Smith, Steve WR CAR

4.06 Sportz Genius Driver, Donald WR GBP

4.07 Osprey Ward, Hines WR PIT

4.08 gulf coast sharks Gates, Antonio TE SDC

4.09 Astros Anderson, Mike RB DEN

4.10 The Duff Men Dunn, Warrick RB ATL

4.11 Overpaid Players Green, Trent QB KC

4.12 BuckeyeArt Bennett, Drew WR TEN

5.01 BuckeyeArt Arrington, J.J. RB ARI

5.02 Overpaid Players Coles, Laveranues WR NYJ

5.03 The Duff Men Moore, Mewelde RB MIN

5.04 Astros Bruce, Isaac WR STL

5.05 gulf coast sharks Brown, Ronnie RB MIA

5.06 Osprey Favre, Brett QB GBP

5.07 Sportz Genius Williams, Carnell RB TBB

5.08 UPSman Barlow, Kevan RB SFO

5.09 Faulk You..... Foster, DeShaun RB CAR

5.10 Zippernecks Benson, Cedric RB CHI

5.11 SlapNutz 1 Jones, Thomas RB CHI

5.12 Callous Doughboys Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI

6.01 Callous Doughboys Ravens, Baltimore DT BAL

6.02 SlapNutz 1 Steelers, Pittsburgh DT PIT

6.03 Zippernecks Branch, Deion WR NEP

6.04 Faulk You..... Taylor, Fred RB JAC

6.05 Astros Collins, Kerry QB OAK

6.06 Sportz Genius Rogers, Charles WR DET

6.07 Osprey Smith, Jimmy WR JAC

6.08 gulf coast sharks Porter, Jerry WR OAK

6.09 UPSman Chambers, Chris WR MIA

6.10 The Duff Men Brown, Chris RB TEN

6.11 Overpaid Players Lelie, Ashley WR DEN

6.12 BuckeyeArt Evans, Lee WR BUF

 

[Tommy Collins]

1.12 Callous Doughboys Lewis, Jamal RB BAL

2.01 Callous Doughboys Dillon, Corey RB NEP

Ouch!

 

[gang-wars]

Well, since Brown and Dunn were ADP 3rd/4th rounders last year that leads me to believe either;

a) you played in a league full of people you met on the short bus and were able to draft those two players much later than any of the rest of us

b) your teams were only comprised of 6-8 player teams

c) you broke your own rules of taking a backup RB before you had a starting QB

Based on the information you've posted(very high first round and very high third round picks were a complete bust.... yet you still won the title) I'm guessing the answer is "a". Congrats either way, and this year take LT in the second round P.Manning somewhere in the midrounds and Gates towards the tale end of the draft.

Wow. Drafting Dunn in the 4th and C Brown in the 6th really is equivalent to getting LT in the 2nd and Gates at the end. Maybe I'll do that this year and win again! Thanks for the advice! It's top notch analysis like this that keeps me coming back to FBG.

For the record my rule is not to draft an NFL BACKUP RB before my starting QB. Point to me which of Dunn and C Brown were backup NFL RBs last year?

5.03 The Duff Men Moore, Mewelde RB MIN Wasn't Bennett named the starter? I remember Tice talking about how great Bennett looked and how he's going to have a great year.

 

[The Duff Man]

5.03 The Duff Men Moore, Mewelde RB MIN

Wasn't Bennett named the starter? I remember Tice talking about how great Bennett looked and how he's going to have a great year.

Draft took place in late August, I was confident Moore was a better back and was drafting to win rather than playing it safe. With Holmes and Dunn as my starters I knew my next two picks would be RB and only needed to hit one of them to cover byes/injuries. I was assuming that IF Priest got hurt it would be later in the year, by that time Moore would take over in Minnesota.

As it turns out C Brown performed better than Moore.

 

[BoltBacker]

Drafting Dunn in the 4th and C Brown in the 6th really is equivalent to getting LT in the 2nd and Gates at the end. Maybe I'll do that this year and win again!

Like I said, congratulations.I haven't played in any leagues in a long time where Chris Brown would have been the 70th player chosen(after Charles Rogers by the way)last summer but if you are then you have the correct drafting strategy. I'm agreeing with you. We all have to tailor our plans to match our competition. If you can get starting RB's at pick #70 in your league it's just different then the leagues many of us paritipate in, that's all. His ADP was around half that in most of the leagues I saw last summer so I assumed he would have gotten drafted earlier.

 

[SoloMatisse]

.......lesson learned....correction, lessonS learned.

 

[Buttmonkey]

Drafting Dunn in the 4th and C Brown in the 6th really is equivalent to getting LT in the 2nd and Gates at the end.  Maybe I'll do that this year and win again! 

Like I said, congratulations.I haven't played in any leagues in a long time where Chris Brown would have been the 70th player chosen(after Charles Rogers by the way)last summer but if you are then you have the correct drafting strategy. I'm agreeing with you. We all have to tailor our plans to match our competition. If you can get starting RB's at pick #70 in your league it's just different then the leagues many of us paritipate in, that's all. His ADP was around half that in most of the leagues I saw last summer so I assumed he would have gotten drafted earlier.

In other words "You play with morons!"Nice thread. It's cool to see the thought process for an upcoming season and then review how wrong/right a lot of us were.

 

[ravnzfan]

Well, since Brown and Dunn were ADP 3rd/4th rounders last year that leads me to believe either;

a) you played in a league full of people you met on the short bus and were able to draft those two players much later than any of the rest of us

b) your teams were only comprised of 6-8 player teams

c) you broke your own rules of taking a backup RB before you had a starting QB

Based on the information you've posted(very high first round and very high third round picks were a complete bust.... yet you still won the title) I'm guessing the answer is "a". Congrats either way, and this year take LT in the second round P.Manning somewhere in the midrounds and Gates towards the tale end of the draft.

Wow. Drafting Dunn in the 4th and C Brown in the 6th really is equivalent to getting LT in the 2nd and Gates at the end. Maybe I'll do that this year and win again! Thanks for the advice! It's top notch analysis like this that keeps me coming back to FBG.

For the record my rule is not to draft an NFL BACKUP RB before my starting QB. Point to me which of Dunn and C Brown were backup NFL RBs last year?

5.03 The Duff Men Moore, Mewelde RB MIN Wasn't Bennett named the starter? I remember Tice talking about how great Bennett looked and how he's going to have a great year.

so you did the same thing you blasted the guy who drafted Larry Johnson, correct?he played a hunch--which he HIT, BTW---as did you

your winning and his losing the championship had to do w/FA moves--or lack thereof, little with the draft that you started this thread about

as Pony Boy mentioned---correctly, I might add---the TO selection in the 3rd was a very risky pick, considering you drafted Holmes 1.3

your success in this league had little to do w/your early drafting ability---you took two players I had little faith in---and every thing to do w/a Plan B when Johnson was no longer available (getting Dunn, who outperformed his draft position)

the Cooley pick up was also solid

oh...and I see you DIDN'T have your starting QB by the 6th either--another reason you had success

I posted in this thread in August, as a guy who drafted Larry Johnson earlier than anyone would care to admit to (read LJ's draft position listed by Johnny U on page 1---I took Larry Johnson 1.12 in an initial Misfits and Outlaws Dynasty draft in January last year--and made the playoffs!)....as somone who took him 1.6 in a keep 4 league (a league I won, BTW) and in a redraft league @5.4, just before the Holmes owner, who then drafted THenry (I took CBrown @4.7) and tried to offer me Henry for LJ "straight up"!---my reply..."are you f'in kidding me!!!! if I wanted Henry over LJ, I would have taken someone else 5.4 and Henry around the 10th!"

(I lost SB to SA/Tiki/Chad owner)

this thread goes to show you that "outside the box" thinking can prove to be VERY worthwhile....

and give credit where credit is due...the guy made a BOLD move taking LJ 4.02, but lacked the skill to back it up---to your point, you can't ALSO take a D in the 6th , when you draft LJ where he did---THAT pick hurt him, not the drafting of Johnson @4.2

and to your credit....adapting to the draft as it occured, taking Moore, Dunn and CBrown prior to a QB, given your risky selections of Holmes AND Owens @1.3/3.3