The emergence of Brian Leonard (1 Viewer)

[Righetti]

Steven Jackson 2007 year

Rushing

346/1528/13 (4.4 ypc)

90/806/3 (8.95 ypr)

last year the team ran for

396/1725/13

SJAX accounted for

87% of the carries

89% of the yardage

100% of the TD's

last year the team's running backs received for

124/1104/4

SJAX accounted for

73% of the receptions

73% of the yards

75% of the TD's

take the total amount together (total touches, yards and total TD.s)

520/2829/17

SJAX accounted for

84% of the total touches

83% of the total yards

94% of the total TD's

There is no way that the Rams want SJAX to take 84% of the carries this year if they expect him to be a productive running back for the next 4-5 years. (As a comparison LT2 for example only got 75% of the charger running-backs total touches and yards.)

I believe that this is the reason that they drafted Leonard in his year's draft.. Leonard does a lot of the same types of things that SJAX does. He is a tough runner, has a good nose for the endzone and catches the ball extremelly well..

I am a Rutgers alumn so take this with a grain of salt but I expect to see Brian Leonard as a 3rd down option, a good receiving option, a hard-nose short yardage guy and a good "team player who will probably never be a bonafideNFL star but will do a lot to help St. Louis win games and to extend SJax's career.

I expect Brian Leonard to get about:

96/400/3 plus 35/288/1

I expect the rest of the running backs to get

20/90/0 plus 15/120/1

Assuming that the Rams offense will put up the same amount of yards* as last year from their running backs

that leaves the following for SJAX

308/1315/10 rushing

74/696/2 receiving

*BUT, I don't expect the Rams offense to be the same this year, so my projection

numbers can even come down a bit.

I see the Rams offense being slowed by

1) a hurt Torry Holt

2) an older Isaac Bruce

wouldn't shock me if his receiving were something like

60/565/2

add to that 308/1325/10 and you get

total fantasy points 260 which last year would have put him between FWP at #5 and Westbrook at #6.

his SOS is pretty average and his week 16 looks very rough against the Steelers

no I don't think that SJax falls very far, and I still expect him to be a very good back. For fantasy purposes I still thinks he makes a very good RB1 but maybe not as good a year as 2007.. One thing for sure it will not surprise me that he does not produce at his ADP (#2 overall). He might not totally dissapoint but I also don't expect him to finish in the top 2 RB's.

 

[Jason Wood]

Good analysis

I think Jackson wasn't in line to catch anywhere close to 90 passes again, anyway; but I'm curious as to why you think he'll give up so many carries and rushing yards? I think your receiving numbers and Leonard's impact are valid, but I have a hard time accepting that Jackson will be limited to 1300+ rushing yards given his talents and the fact he's the centerpiece of that offense.

 

[Willowdoc]

There is no way that the Rams want SJAX to take 84% of the carries this year if they expect him to be a productive running back for the next 4-5 years. (As a comparison LT2 for example only got 75% of the charger running-backs total touches and yards.) I believe that this is the reason that they drafted Leonard in his year's draft.. Leonard does a lot of the same types of things that SJAX does. He is a tough runner, has a good nose for the endzone and catches the ball extremelly well.."

LT is a bad comparison unless you think that the Rams are going to blow out alot of opponeents. They didn't need to play LT in many 4th quarters, so Turner was more productive then he would have been on a worse team. Leonard will take away some of SJs playing time, but no where near what you have estimated. Leonard will give Jackson breathers, but if the Rams are in the game, he will get the touches. Noone expects 90 receptions from Jackson this season, but a drop in receptions by 1/3 still brings him in as RB#2. He states he wants 2500 total yards this year, he'll probably fall short, but barring injury he still has an excellent chance to lead the league (in a race with Frank Gore) in total yards. (Yes LT was #2 last year and could also challenge, but there isn't anyone who isn't going to take him #1 anyway).

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

This is a good analysis, no question.

I think you also have to include the improvement at the TE position as well. This year McMichael starts, a big upgrade over 2006.

In 2006 it was:

Joe Klopfenstein (34 targets, 20 catches, 226 yards and 1 TD)

Dominique Byrd (3-2-29-1)

Aaron Walker (6-5-68-0)

Team TE: (43-27-323-2), which is a good definition of a mess.

Randy McMichael was 96-62-640-3 by his lonesome last year, and had better years in 2004 and 2005.

I'd expect about 50% increase in targets at a minimum to the TE, which could come at the expense of the RB targets. That'd be about 22 targets, so I'm actually leaning to about 75 targets to McMichael alone. That's 32 that come from somewhere else.

Just something to add to the thought process.

 

[Righetti]

I might be a little light on the the total rushing yards but I do see Leonard being involved

the team had 396/1725/13 rushing yards last year.. I assume they will more or less repeat those numbers the difference is that I figured Leonard for about 90/400 which "leaves" Jackson with 305/1325..

Maybe I'm a bit higher on Leonard than most..

But I'm sure that Leonard gets about 2 receptions and 4-5 rushes per games. In this case his rushing numbers will be closer 70/280..

which leaves SJAX with 326/1445/10..

 

[Tom Servo]

I expect Brian Leonard to get about:96/400/3 plus 35/288/1

I've run a few mock drafts on the DD for my 16-team redraft tonight. I've gotten him just about any time I wanted him in the mocks. Under our scoring system, your projections would give him 126 points which would be good as a bye week filler/RB4 type guy. I like your analysis with the exception that IMO he comes pretty close to #2 overall.

 

[Righetti]

The biggest point is that Brian Leonard does a lot of the same things that SJAX does.. Last year they did not have anybody to spell Jackson

I believe that this year they will.. It will not come at the expense of a good season for SJAX but I think his numbers will get affected somewhat.. 96 carries for BL might be too many, but 70 certainly is not. Give him 70 carries and an additional 35 receptions and three TD's those are all numbers that will come at the expense of Jackson.

St. Louis fans will LOVE Brian Leonard, he will impress them with his grit, toughness, leadership and pass catching ability.. They coaching staff will take notice and will not keep this kind of player on the bench. They would be stupid too. I dont' see an RBBC situation but I do see BL having a number of games where he sees 10-12 touches

 

[Cerwin]

I think Jackson's TD numbers will skyrocket compared to last year. In the beginning of the season last year you could see he was having difficulty finding the endzone. But near the end of the year last year he found his rhythm and figured out how to get the six points on the board. I don't see a big drop off in fantasy production from him.

 

[Righetti]

I expect Brian Leonard to get about:96/400/3 plus 35/288/1

I've run a few mock drafts on the DD for my 16-team redraft tonight. I've gotten him just about any time I wanted him in the mocks. Under our scoring system, your projections would give him 126 points which would be good as a bye week filler/RB4 type guy. I like your analysis with the exception that IMO he comes pretty close to #2 overall.

if SJax were to get dinged up and miss a game, I'd expect Leonard to be a very good fill-in fantasy wise.. might not be SJax type numbers but he could go for 22/90/1 plus 3/25 on a week where SJax is out.

 

[redaddy25]

I agree BL will get 6-8 touches a game but I think you need to look at Bulger's 588 attempts last year for Leonard's touches. Besides the obvious things you already mentioned (Holt's injury and Bruce's age) the attempts were the 3rd most by any QB last year, behind only Favre and Kitna, and those 3 were way ahead of the pack.

I think the lack of a backup last year to Jackson meant more passing. I don't see Leonard cutting into a lot of Jackson's touches, but more the Rams changing their focus as they now have a capable #2 RB.

 

[Gopher State]

The biggest point is that Brian Leonard does a lot of the same things that SJAX does.. Last year they did not have anybody to spell JacksonI believe that this year they will.. It will not come at the expense of a good season for SJAX but I think his numbers will get affected somewhat.. 96 carries for BL might be too many, but 70 certainly is not. Give him 70 carries and an additional 35 receptions and three TD's those are all numbers that will come at the expense of Jackson. St. Louis fans will LOVE Brian Leonard, he will impress them with his grit, toughness, leadership and pass catching ability.. They coaching staff will take notice and will not keep this kind of player on the bench. They would be stupid too. I dont' see an RBBC situation but I do see BL having a number of games where he sees 10-12 touches

I agree Leonard should average 10 touches a game, Jackson will come down a little, but still should finish in the top 5 for RB's

 

[jmsne]

I am not positive on the splits of the yardage rushing/receiving.. but i am pretty sure he gets over 2k yards.. and over 300 carries with 70+ catches.. you dont take out stephen jackson unless he signals to be taken out thats the way it was for marshal thats the way it will be for jackson.. expect 15+ tds also should still be solidly into the top5 backs thats why you take him 2nd..

 

[Otis]

Good analysis, and agreed. Leonard is a heck of a football player, and the coaches won't let him rot on the bench. They will absolutely get him involved, perhaps more than Sjax owners would like...

 

[Righetti]

[i agree Leonard should average 10 touches a game, Jackson will come down a little, but still should finish in the top 5 for RB's

I'm sure he'll finish in the top 5 range... but I expect the 7-10 touches a game that Leonard gets will be 7-10 less touches that SJax gets. I just see SJax going from 85% of the team RB touches to something closer to 75%..

 

[SCT]

[i agree Leonard should average 10 touches a game, Jackson will come down a little, but still should finish in the top 5 for RB's

I'm sure he'll finish in the top 5 range... but I expect the 7-10 touches a game that Leonard gets will be 7-10 less touches that SJax gets. I just see SJax going from 85% of the team RB touches to something closer to 75%..

Knowing what we know about this situation, and what John Clayton normally knows (his inside info. not necessarily his opinion), I wonder why he said SJax has a shot at 2500 yards this year. That was like 48 hours ago so it's not like BL hadn't emerged yet when he said that.Not that I agree with Clayton, just interesting.

 

[Righetti]

has SJax predicted 2500 yards for himself or was it only Clayton?

probably more coincidental and not that it is any reason to downgrade a guy but it's funny that every year some running back says he is going for 2500 yards and every year that guy dissapoints (i remember Julius saying it one year, Dom Davis/Williams may have said it)

 

[SCT]

has SJax predicted 2500 yards for himself or was it only Clayton?probably more coincidental and not that it is any reason to downgrade a guy but it's funny that every year some running back says he is going for 2500 yards and every year that guy dissapoints (i remember Julius saying it one year, Dom Davis/Williams may have said it)

Clayton said this in his 90 minute Q and A session. SJax has long said that was a goal.

 

[NYCGangGreen]

has SJax predicted 2500 yards for himself or was it only Clayton?probably more coincidental and not that it is any reason to downgrade a guy but it's funny that every year some running back says he is going for 2500 yards and every year that guy dissapoints (i remember Julius saying it one year, Dom Davis/Williams may have said it)

Clayton said this in his 90 minute Q and A session. SJax has long said that was a goal.

If that SJax's goal, and the coaches let him try for it.....then bury Leonard on your bench and wait for SJax to come off limping around week 10!

 

[Righetti]

has SJax predicted 2500 yards for himself or was it only Clayton?probably more coincidental and not that it is any reason to downgrade a guy but it's funny that every year some running back says he is going for 2500 yards and every year that guy dissapoints (i remember Julius saying it one year, Dom Davis/Williams may have said it)

Clayton said this in his 90 minute Q and A session. SJax has long said that was a goal.

can't blame a guy for wanting that kind of season, i'd be more worried if he said his goal was to get 1500 total yards...by the way, the Leonard-Allstot analogy's really aren't very good, Leonard is much more agile and is a real danger in the open field. The first time he does a Leonard leap over a defender in an NFL regular season game with everybody watching, will be the day the country falls in love with him.. you'll see it as the #1 highlight on Sportscenter all week.

 

[DoubleG]

by the way, the Leonard-Allstot analogy's really aren't very good, Leonard is much more agile and is a real danger in the open field. The first time he does a Leonard leap over a defender in an NFL regular season game with everybody watching, will be the day the country falls in love with him.. you'll see it as the #1 highlight on Sportscenter all week.

Not disagreeing with any of your points, just at the name

 

[Righetti]

 

[Righetti]

 

[NYCGangGreen]

I just don't see coaches being too pleased with a guy trying to leap over a LB with the NFL caliber. This isnt Jersey anymore and he will never be able to leap over a guy like Ryans, Sims, Merriman etc etc.. w/o it ending in injury.

For him to be truly valuable to the team he better learn to lower his shoulder and dish out a hit instead of risking a major injury by going airborn.

FWIW - I remember seeing those clips last year and did enjoy them for comical value....but would be a shame to see him try it in the NFL and ruin his potential career.

 

[One]

Some LB's gonna catch him mid-air and lay him out some day.

...until then, I hope he keeps leaping. freakin' awesome.

 

[Otis]

has SJax predicted 2500 yards for himself or was it only Clayton?probably more coincidental and not that it is any reason to downgrade a guy but it's funny that every year some running back says he is going for 2500 yards and every year that guy dissapoints (i remember Julius saying it one year, Dom Davis/Williams may have said it)

Clayton said this in his 90 minute Q and A session. SJax has long said that was a goal.

can't blame a guy for wanting that kind of season, i'd be more worried if he said his goal was to get 1500 total yards...by the way, the Leonard-Allstot analogy's really aren't very good, Leonard is much more agile and is a real danger in the open field. The first time he does a Leonard leap over a defender in an NFL regular season game with everybody watching, will be the day the country falls in love with him.. you'll see it as the #1 highlight on Sportscenter all week.

He already did one in a preseason game and it was all over SportsCenter.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

The "other" running backs had about 50 total carries for the Rams last year.

Leonard will have double that amount, 100 <+/- 20>. Jackson will not have 436 touches again.

 

[Otis]

He already did one in a preseason game and it was all over SportsCenter.

As noted above.Guy is an athlete.

 

[NYCGangGreen]

He already did one in a preseason game and it was all over SportsCenter.

As noted above.Guy is an athlete.

Leaping Fabian Washington isnt noteworthy, Teams will eventually learn that he is a leap frogger and when he gets caught it will be all over that lame ### "Jacked Up" segment.I love Leonard, and really hope that he does well in both NFL and FF, but I just worry that he is going to shorten his career when he gets caught.

But no doubt to the fact that he is an athletic monster for his size.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

1st time he pulls that schoolyard stunt in the NFL...he won't do it again.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

He already did one in a preseason game and it was all over SportsCenter.

As noted above.Guy is an athlete.

OK, 2nd time he pulls this schoolyard stunt against a 1st team NFL defense...he won't do it again.

 

[rufan]

OK, 2nd time he pulls this schoolyard stunt against a 1st team NFL defense...he won't do it again.

Blah, blah, blah. I've heard this for years. And he keeps doing it successfully. The problem for defenses is that he can run you over just as easy as he can jump you.

 

[QUEZILLA]

He just did it on the NFL level He probably will do it again week 3 when he jumps over one of the Bucs undersized linebackers or DBs.

As far as the Alstott comparisons, these guys are totally different. Chances are when Alstott left the ground he wasn't landing on his feet. Alstott wasn't as fast as this guy, but he could dish it out.

 

[Willowdoc]

The "other" running backs had about 50 total carries for the Rams last year.

Leonard will have double that amount, 100 <+/- 20>. Jackson will not have 436 touches again.

And your proof of this is??? I'm really serious, I am debating on Jackson at 2 and the only reason not to take him would be a decrease in touches. Yet, I just don't believe coaches take their studs out to make room for unproven rookies. Someone please show me a quote from Linahan or even a reporter who covers the Rams, not just your preseason observations that Leonard will take any more touches from Jackson then his subs last year.

 

[Routilla]

This is a good analysis, no question.I think you also have to include the improvement at the TE position as well. This year McMichael starts, a big upgrade over 2006.

As a McMichael owner I would love for this to be the case. However I have seen nothing in the pre-season that makes me think they have the TE fitting into their offense. I thought with Holt out that McMichael would get a lot of work with Bulger but that has not been the case. As far as SJAX is concerned, I see him getting the ball a lot but Leonard will spell him occasionally. I don't see STL blowing many people out with their DEF so SJAX will not be sitting in the 4th Q. I think he will catch 70 passes this year.

 

[Redding]

.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

The "other" running backs had about 50 total carries for the Rams last year.

Leonard will have double that amount, 100 <+/- 20>. Jackson will not have 436 touches again.

And your proof of this is??? I'm really serious, I am debating on Jackson at 2 and the only reason not to take him would be a decrease in touches. Yet, I just don't believe coaches take their studs out to make room for unproven rookies. Someone please show me a quote from Linahan or even a reporter who covers the Rams, not just your preseason observations that Leonard will take any more touches from Jackson then his subs last year.

I'd still take SJ at #2.My "proof" is just my observation and how I fully expect the Rams to approach Jackson and his use.

When a coach gives quotes like "Every year, because players are bigger and faster and stronger and more expensive, you've got to make sure a guy like Steven Jackson, who is a game-changer, is healthy for the regular season and the playoffs," offensive coordinator Greg Olson said. "It's important that we have him at the end of the season when hopefully we're making a playoff push."

It leads me to believe he knows his guy had 436 touches last year and the effect it can have on a player if it continues at that pace.

Its actually pretty common knowledge in the NFL. And the OC mentions having him healthy come payoff time. Thus the early drafting of another RB.

Getting 436 touches seems out of line with that reasoning. 385 touches could alleviate quite a bit of risk.

Would 385 touches be a problem as far as you seeing him as the #2 back? I would think not.

 

[Reservoir Dog]

This is why the FBG message board is the most valuable FF resource tool on the web. I agree with Rigetti's analysis, and I expect S.Jax to produce a little less this year than most expect. There is NO way he challenges L.T., and I think he may even produce less FF points than L.J. and Frank Gore. That said, at the least he should be a top 5 finisher.

 

[North]

Everyone who is debating this needs to realize a couple of things.

1. I'll give Leonard some credit, he has impressed this preseason but I really don't see him cutting into SJAX carries. Example- Turner has impressed this preseason, is anyone predicting he will cut into LT's carries? No, it's foolish to think an NFL coach has anything on his mind but winning. When game 1 starts they expect SJAX to carry the load and I doubt they are anticipating him getting injured. Why would you pull one of the top players in the game for a rookie if that said player is not hurt and wants to be productive?

2. I don't know how many people noticed that last year when Lanny gave up his offensive play calling duties to Greg Olsen after the bye (week 7), SJAX's numbers went through the roof. During that time he scored 14 of his 16 td's and rushed for 1007 yds. Before the bye I feel that Lanny really wasn't using him effectively.

Before (6 games)-

87 yds per game and only 2 tds

After (10 games)-

100 yds per game and 14 tds

I think that with the same game plan this year SJAX should put up rushing #'s that eclipse last year.

 

[chidoy]

Everyone who is debating this needs to realize a couple of things.1. I'll give Leonard some credit, he has impressed this preseason but I really don't see him cutting into SJAX carries. Example- Turner has impressed this preseason, is anyone predicting he will cut into LT's carries? No, it's foolish to think an NFL coach has anything on his mind but winning. When game 1 starts they expect SJAX to carry the load and I doubt they are anticipating him getting injured. Why would you pull one of the top players in the game for a rookie if that said player is not hurt and wants to be productive?2. I don't know how many people noticed that last year when Lanny gave up his offensive play calling duties to Greg Olsen after the bye (week 7), SJAX's numbers went through the roof. During that time he scored 14 of his 16 td's and rushed for 1007 yds. Before the bye I feel that Lanny really wasn't using him effectively.Before (6 games)-87 yds per game and only 2 tdsAfter (10 games)-100 yds per game and 14 tdsI think that with the same game plan this year SJAX should put up rushing #'s that eclipse last year.

 

[Willowdoc]

Everyone who is debating this needs to realize a couple of things.1. I'll give Leonard some credit, he has impressed this preseason but I really don't see him cutting into SJAX carries. Example- Turner has impressed this preseason, is anyone predicting he will cut into LT's carries? No, it's foolish to think an NFL coach has anything on his mind but winning. When game 1 starts they expect SJAX to carry the load and I doubt they are anticipating him getting injured. Why would you pull one of the top players in the game for a rookie if that said player is not hurt and wants to be productive?2. I don't know how many people noticed that last year when Lanny gave up his offensive play calling duties to Greg Olsen after the bye (week 7), SJAX's numbers went through the roof. During that time he scored 14 of his 16 td's and rushed for 1007 yds. Before the bye I feel that Lanny really wasn't using him effectively.Before (6 games)-87 yds per game and only 2 tdsAfter (10 games)-100 yds per game and 14 tdsI think that with the same game plan this year SJAX should put up rushing #'s that eclipse last year.

I agree with this, you said it much better than I tried to do above. I just don't believe a coach hurts himself by not playing a SJax. Can anyone give a historical example where a true stud, top 5 RB, who lost significant carries (not receptions, we all think this will go down) to a rookie running back not due to injury?

 

[SCT]

Interesting quote from Joe in his article posted today....hope not copyright infringement:

# 2 Steven Jackson - Rams. Not the no brainer that Tomlinson is but he just feels like the right guy here. Big, fast, young but experienced, no competition and in the perfect offense for him. I wouldn't take him over Tomlinson under any circumstance, but I jump on him at #2.

 

[ctdub]

has SJax predicted 2500 yards for himself or was it only Clayton?probably more coincidental and not that it is any reason to downgrade a guy but it's funny that every year some running back says he is going for 2500 yards and every year that guy dissapoints (i remember Julius saying it one year, Dom Davis/Williams may have said it)

Domanick Davis? Julius Jones? The closest those two ever got to 2500 is Madden 03. SJax was only 150-160 yards away last year. Yes, he had a good year and may end up going down as a career best for him when all is said and done. But this is not far reaching for Jackson to have this goal. I own Jackson in 2 leagues and have Leonard also in case of season ending injury. I see only positives for Jax so far. Resting him in preseason to carry a heavy load and be healthy wk 1. I'm not sure, but can someone familliar with Rutgers explain. Didn't Leonard lose his starting job as hback at Rutgers to Ray Rice? Or was he always a fback?

 

[Otis]

Interesting quote from Joe in his article posted today....hope not copyright infringement:

# 2 Steven Jackson - Rams. Not the no brainer that Tomlinson is but he just feels like the right guy here. Big, fast, young but experienced, no competition and in the perfect offense for him. I wouldn't take him over Tomlinson under any circumstance, but I jump on him at #2.

I don't think anyone here is suggesting there is any competition. SJax is the starting RB until he gets hurt. End of story. That said, the issue is whether Leonard will be used as a role player in a way that could eat into Jackson's stats. Is he going to steal the job? Of course not. But might he get some significant touches? Potentially (and I think yes).

 

[stevegamer]

has SJax predicted 2500 yards for himself or was it only Clayton?probably more coincidental and not that it is any reason to downgrade a guy but it's funny that every year some running back says he is going for 2500 yards and every year that guy dissapoints (i remember Julius saying it one year, Dom Davis/Williams may have said it)

Domanick Davis? Julius Jones? The closest those two ever got to 2500 is Madden 03. SJax was only 150-160 yards away last year. Yes, he had a good year and may end up going down as a career best for him when all is said and done. But this is not far reaching for Jackson to have this goal. I own Jackson in 2 leagues and have Leonard also in case of season ending injury. I see only positives for Jax so far. Resting him in preseason to carry a heavy load and be healthy wk 1. I'm not sure, but can someone familliar with Rutgers explain. Didn't Leonard lose his starting job as hback at Rutgers to Ray Rice? Or was he always a fback?

He actually moved to fullback so they could get the 2 best backs on the field, I think.Leonard will likely take more touches than the other Rams backs did last year. Will it be enough to really impact S Jackson? Probably not enought ot drop him below the #2-3 RB off the board..

 

[Righetti]

might be good time to bump this bad boy

 

[Otis]

 

[Koya]

I might very well take the Leonard Plunge this week. Have a number of meh options including Leonard. It's supposed to be hot and humid down in Dallas - perhaps they can either wear down the boys defense and/or get some garbage points if the Rams get blown out. I don't see Dallas totally shutting them down, though the Rams can always self destruct.