The Future of Fantasy Draft Strategies (1 Viewer)

[bigz99]

Ok, can I get a 'hell yeah' if you used the Draft Dominator, your team post draft looked like a top 3 team and now you are looking down the barrel of sub-500 season and missing the playoffs.

Has Fantasy Football changed? Should our core assumptions change?

Most importantly, do we all need to adjust our draft strategies next year?

e.g. The once RBs are gold seems to be turning to copper. Besides the elite few, most RBs are sharing carries or are stuck in a pool of mediocrity. To think, before this week LT had 7 TDs (4 in one game) and the next closest was 5 TDs. This is the half way point in many FFL seasons and last year SA had 27 TDS total! What has happened?

I am seeing more and more RBs and top tier QBs not playing to their draft slots. Top WRs are being matched or beat by tier 2 guys. e.g. Chad, Fitz, Harrison vs. DJack, Coles, Reggie Brown, Roy Williams, etc.

If we were to hold the draft today, you would take McNabb #1, then the Bears #2 from a drop-off perspective alone.

Are all these trends and this wacky year an aberration? Or is this the new NFL? How will FBG respond?

 

[bigz99]

Also, I would love to see anyone's spreadsheet of FBG projected fantasy points to the current fantasy points and have a column for delta. To see where the value really was.

 

[Byron_nyc]

Also, I would love to see anyone's spreadsheet of FBG projected fantasy points to the current fantasy points and have a column for delta. To see where the value really was.

That would be a great tool.I don't think things are that different than other years. I had a top - 3 Draft Dominator team and I am crusing to the playoffs. Everyone knew that after the top five backs there was a lot of uncertainty. Wide Receivers are always a risk. I think the one thing that has been proved this year is that a QB who year after year puts up top - 5 numbers is always worth a first round pick. I swalled and took Peyt in the second round this year at 16, and I've been happy.

 

[PsychoMan]

i don't even use the draft dominator to tell me who to pick .. that's never worked out for me. i do use it for everything else it has to offer (depth charts, knowing what positions people have drafted, etc) - overall, it's a great tool.

this year does seem pretty weird... although at the beginning of the season, i think a lot of people were in agreement that they simply didn't know who to draft after the top 3 were gone (maybe besides tiki/rudi/portis).

people who grabbed manning or steve smith at the end of the first round may not be suffering as badly as some would have expected.

 

[Delusions Of Adequacy]

2005 was the aberration, with 2 rbs putting up 20+ td's and the big 3 all with 18 or more td's.

In a normal season the leading rb scores around 15-17 tds. 2005 skewed expectations for this year badly.

 

[bigz99]

well, why draft a RB in spots 5-10/12 then?

Smith or Holt or Manning or McNabb would of all been better choices. Of course, is this hindsight talking?

 

[Plainsman]

The guy who took Smith near the turn ended up with Jordan as his #1. Needless to say he is 1-6. I would bet the majority of those who went this route are playing catchup as Smith sat the first couple weeks and their #1 rb was most likely a bust (Jordan, Caddy, Edge, Brown, J. Jones)

 

[JerseyEagles]

The guy who took Smith near the turn ended up with Jordan as his #1. Needless to say he is 1-6. I would bet the majority of those who went this route are playing catchup as Smith sat the first couple weeks and their #1 rb was most likely a bust (Jordan, Caddy, Edge, Brown, J. Jones)

That's exactly right, my first 3 picks were Caddy, Lamont, and R. Moss. Hmmm, wonder why my team is 2-6. Most of the stuff coming out of FBG was telling us all to forget drafting QBs till AT LEAST round 7, b/c unless you get McNabb and/or Peyton, you might as well throw QBs 3-15 in a hat and just pick one. Well, that didn't really work out this season.

 

[5Rings]

Do your own projections. Take the players you like.

Fantasy football is alot more fun when you choose your own team.

Seems like ever year more and more guys are letting the Dominator choose their team for them.

 

[djjosee]

The guy who took Smith near the turn ended up with Jordan as his #1. Needless to say he is 1-6. I would bet the majority of those who went this route are playing catchup as Smith sat the first couple weeks and their #1 rb was most likely a bust (Jordan, Caddy, Edge, Brown, J. Jones)

That's exactly right, my first 3 picks were Caddy, Lamont, and R. Moss. Hmmm, wonder why my team is 2-6. Most of the stuff coming out of FBG was telling us all to forget drafting QBs till AT LEAST round 7, b/c unless you get McNabb and/or Peyton, you might as well throw QBs 3-15 in a hat and just pick one. Well, that didn't really work out this season.

I'm doing well with Leftwich and Kitna ...

 

[Warpig]

I'm sitting at either 4-4 or 5-3 (won't know until after tonight) in a 12 team league where all TD's are 6 pts.

This league was blown all out of whack when one of the guppies took Randy Moss with the #2 overall pick. I took Carson Palmer with the #9 pick since I didn't like any of the other RB's looking at me. My #1 RB was Lamont Jordan.

My starting lineup looks something like this:

qb - Palmer

rb - W. Dunn

wr - Holt

te - Watson

flex1 - Chester Taylor

flex2 - Kevin Jones (just picked him up off the WW 2 weeks ago)

k - Wilkins

d/st - Ravens

Other than Holt, no one on my roster has performed to their expectations. Jordan is now on my bench rooting himself.

Other than a few players and some surprises, the crafty vets have taken a big step backwards as far as their production this year.

 

[GOroute]

one must use the tools like DD, rankings, etc for a background. if you use it to tell you who to pick, what's the point. you are basically using someone else's info and where's the fun in that. plus if these so-called experts were so good at it, they would be making a lot more money then they are now. opinions are like ---well you know.

use the info, but dont over use it.

 

[bigz99]

it has always been used as a guideline for me, and this thread should be less about DD and FBG and more about the changing NFL landscape and what to expect in the future.

 

[2112]

The guy who took Smith near the turn ended up with Jordan as his #1. Needless to say he is 1-6. I would bet the majority of those who went this route are playing catchup as Smith sat the first couple weeks and their #1 rb was most likely a bust (Jordan, Caddy, Edge, Brown, J. Jones)

umm, not neccesarily. I know this is not about my team per se; but I did draft Steve Smith in the 1st but I went even farther out on that limb and took Holt in the 2nd; then Roy Williams in 3rd. (PPR league, start 3 WR) I was able to get Dunn, FWP, TJones & Deuce in 4 of the next 6 rounds. So if you're willing to scrimp on having a "stud name" for your RB, you can do really well. ETA: This is where I think the idea comes in that FF has changed. SOme think you gotta have big names on your roster. Not at all. FF has not changed; it's always been about VALUE. But what has happened is the FF players (you and me) have tried to turn this into a system, or a science - something like "you gotta have this type of player early, or you're lost". Something like the stud-RB theory has turned into an expectation of it being a "law" or predictor of success. Nothing is guaranteed, you gotta be willing to change your thinking to stay fresh in this game.

Prior to this season we all knew that RB position was really deep -- this should tell you to WAIT for them. Not to grab 2 of them early. I am not savvy enough to use DD, so I don't know what it would've told me to do.

6-2, btw.

 

[bigz99]

If anyone from FBG is listening.....

What would be a useful article next year is something comparing each position and at which rates did those positions meet, beat or not match expectations from the beginning of the year. We could even do this by tier. It could be a very interesting study into where the risk lies in the early rounds. e.g. half of the first 15 RBs likely are missing expectations, while 35% of the first 15 WRs are missing and X% of the first 10 QBs, etc.

 

[Disco Stu]

well, why draft a RB in spots 5-10/12 then?Smith or Holt or Manning or McNabb would of all been better choices. Of course, is this hindsight talking?

Yes, it is hindsight talking. Avoiding RBs could have just as easily led you to Chad Johnson.FWIW, a guy in my league went against the grain with Manning, Smith, and Chad as his top three players and is struggling (2-6).

 

[dickey moe]

In most of my leagues, guys who held to the draft 2 stud RB or WR theory in the first 3 rounds have done really well this year. The guys who are eating it are the ones who drafted a QB or TE early.

 

[Vandalay Industries]

In most of my leagues, guys who held to the draft 2 stud RB or WR theory in the first 3 rounds have done really well this year. The guys who are eating it are the ones who drafted a QB or TE early.

I would say that (as usual) the person who drafted the best in rounds 3-6 are the leaders in the league. Not who won the lottery and gets LT2 (who will be injured come the playoffs).The person who drafted, Westbrook (late2), McNabb (3-4 round), FWP (3 round often) and then made solid pickups (colston, bennard) are the ones winning the leauge.The ones who drafted Edge (hype from AZ), Jorden (no offense at ALL in PS), Moss (see jorden), R. Brown (#5 in a LOT of drafts, and couldnt even beat out RW), and otherwise who LOST the year in the 1-2 rounds.

 

[GoL]

In reviewing my fantasy teams this year I began to wonder the same thing.

I have a team that is going to be 8-0 in one yahoo league. Yeah I know the level of competition is weak and all that jazz but here is the rub . . . I joined this yahoo public league to practice using the draft software for a real league draft that was using yahoo. There was a glitch and I never made a single selection. Just full on autodraft. The Chicago Bears defense is single handedly leading this team to victory every week.

The league I drafted 4- 4.

 

[Bri]

Are all these trends and this wacky year an aberration? Or is this the new NFL? How will FBG respond?

Not wacky, the game evolves. When you look further into things, you realize they happenned for a reason. Then it's oops I missed that reason. Next year, you hope you foresee every reason for a pitfall. You will miss some again. Of course you'll "hit" some too and prosper because of it.Don't beat yourself up too hard, don't thump your chest too hard.Hang tight, I've made the playoffs and won leagues by enterring the playoffs with a .500 record. Your season ain't over bro

 

[smackdaddies]

I'm sitting at either 4-4 or 5-3 (won't know until after tonight) in a 12 team league where all TD's are 6 pts. This league was blown all out of whack when one of the guppies took Randy Moss with the #2 overall pick. I took Carson Palmer with the #9 pick since I didn't like any of the other RB's looking at me. My #1 RB was Lamont Jordan.My starting lineup looks something like this:qb - Palmerrb - W. Dunnwr - Holtte - Watsonflex1 - Chester Taylorflex2 - Kevin Jones (just picked him up off the WW 2 weeks ago)k - Wilkinsd/st - RavensOther than Holt, no one on my roster has performed to their expectations. Jordan is now on my bench rooting himself. Other than a few players and some surprises, the crafty vets have taken a big step backwards as far as their production this year.

Kevin Jones 2 weeks ago on the Waiver Wire?What league do you play in?

 

[Mungo Burrows]

My starting lineup looks something like this:

qb - Palmer

rb - W. Dunn

wr - Holt

te - Watson

flex1 - Chester Taylor

flex2 - Kevin Jones (just picked him up off the WW 2 weeks ago)

k - Wilkins

d/st - Ravens

Other than Holt, no one on my roster has performed to their expectations.

What the hell kind of unrealistic expectations did you have Taylor, KJ, Wilkins or the Ravens Defense?According to FBG scoring, Taylor is top 15, KJ is top 5 (I believe both are higher - top 10 - in PPR). Wilkins and the Ravens are #2 at their positions. Dunn is probably about where he was projected. The only real disappointments in that starting lineup are Watson and Palmer.

 

[Plainsman]

The guy who took Smith near the turn ended up with Jordan as his #1. Needless to say he is 1-6. I would bet the majority of those who went this route are playing catchup as Smith sat the first couple weeks and their #1 rb was most likely a bust (Jordan, Caddy, Edge, Brown, J. Jones)

umm, not neccesarily. I know this is not about my team per se; but I did draft Steve Smith in the 1st but I went even farther out on that limb and took Holt in the 2nd; then Roy Williams in 3rd. (PPR league, start 3 WR) I was able to get Dunn, FWP, TJones & Deuce in 4 of the next 6 rounds. So if you're willing to scrimp on having a "stud name" for your RB, you can do really well. ETA: This is where I think the idea comes in that FF has changed. SOme think you gotta have big names on your roster. Not at all. FF has not changed; it's always been about VALUE. But what has happened is the FF players (you and me) have tried to turn this into a system, or a science - something like "you gotta have this type of player early, or you're lost". Something like the stud-RB theory has turned into an expectation of it being a "law" or predictor of success. Nothing is guaranteed, you gotta be willing to change your thinking to stay fresh in this game.

Prior to this season we all knew that RB position was really deep -- this should tell you to WAIT for them. Not to grab 2 of them early. I am not savvy enough to use DD, so I don't know what it would've told me to do.

6-2, btw.

I am not meaning to sound like one of those pricks who says join a real league, but every single one of those rbs that you mentioned were gone by the end of the 6th round in my league and it is only composed of 10 teams. I would hope this was the case in any other so-claimed "shark" league. Either your league has a very extreme scoring format, its very small, or it just doesnt have very competitive and knowledgeable owners. Your league is an exception and is why I specified my opinion to the majority. Anyways the point I was trying to make is that those who took Smith late 1st were banking one those heavily hyped rbs would be a steal for a rb #1 in the early second round and could carry them while Smith recovered from his hammy.

 

[Chaz]

Not that this is earth shattering news, but I think you could win with ANY strategy, provided you were right about the players.

QB early and took Peyton or McNabb, fine. QB late and took Kitna, fine. QB early and took Palmer? Not so good. QB late with CPep? No good.

WR early and took Smith and Holt? Fine. WR early and took Fitz and CJ? Not fine.

D in the third round and took Chicago? No problem.

I don't care how this game "evolves," you still need to pick the right players.

 

[cubbie5150]

Not that this is earth shattering news, but I think you could win with ANY strategy, provided you were right about the players.QB early and took Peyton or McNabb, fine. QB late and took Kitna, fine. QB early and took Palmer? Not so good. QB late with CPep? No good.WR early and took Smith and Holt? Fine. WR early and took Fitz and CJ? Not fine.D in the third round and took Chicago? No problem. I don't care how this game "evolves," you still need to pick the right players.

It ALWAYS & will always come down to that... Great point.

 

[TheAbeFroman]

I would have to give serious consideration to taking the Bears VERY early next year...a roster spot that consistantly puts up 20+ points every week is hard to find.

 

[Warpig]

My starting lineup looks something like this:

qb - Palmer

rb - W. Dunn

wr - Holt

te - Watson

flex1 - Chester Taylor

flex2 - Kevin Jones (just picked him up off the WW 2 weeks ago)

k - Wilkins

d/st - Ravens

Other than Holt, no one on my roster has performed to their expectations.

What the hell kind of unrealistic expectations did you have Taylor, KJ, Wilkins or the Ravens Defense?According to FBG scoring, Taylor is top 15, KJ is top 5 (I believe both are higher - top 10 - in PPR). Wilkins and the Ravens are #2 at their positions. Dunn is probably about where he was projected. The only real disappointments in that starting lineup are Watson and Palmer.

My disappointment lies in the fact that Taylor only has 2 TD's after 7 games (we'll see if he scores tonight). Sure, he's getting tons of touches as predicted, but no TD's. Thus I deem him a disappointment so far.KJ was a dud until the last 2 weeks. Overall he has not performed up to expectations (should have known better after last year). I don't play in PPR leagues so he's not really all that great in my league. Sure, Wilkins is par for the course and the Ravens have been a delight. Total up the total number of TD's between all those guys (including my other starters) and hopefully you'll see as I have that...yeah...you can say they have been less than desirable thus far, which is why I'm struggling to stay .500.

 

[Crusaderfan]

The guy who took Smith near the turn ended up with Jordan as his #1. Needless to say he is 1-6. I would bet the majority of those who went this route are playing catchup as Smith sat the first couple weeks and their #1 rb was most likely a bust (Jordan, Caddy, Edge, Brown, J. Jones)

That's exactly right, my first 3 picks were Caddy, Lamont, and R. Moss. Hmmm, wonder why my team is 2-6. Most of the stuff coming out of FBG was telling us all to forget drafting QBs till AT LEAST round 7, b/c unless you get McNabb and/or Peyton, you might as well throw QBs 3-15 in a hat and just pick one. Well, that didn't really work out this season.

I'm with you. In my 10 team league I had the 10th pick and went Jordan and Caddy. I waited for a QB and ended up with Warner and Brooks. I now have Favre and Leinart at QB and have been getting the crap knocked out of me by guys that have P. Manning & McNabb,. I don't think I will ever wait that long on a QB again. I'm 3-5, and have a team full of under achievers - Caddy, Jordan, R. Moss, Chambers, Mason, Watson.....I've done very well in the past using FBG's VBD drafting but this year my team really blows.

I hope it's just a one year thing.

Willie

 

[TitusIII]

Draft QB's with solid WR's...

Draft RB's on solid teams...

Draft WR's with good QB's...

Snag a TE that you can count on...

Draft the Bears D

Seems fairly simple?