The "I can't believe I'm doing one this early but (1 Viewer)

[Andy Dufresne]

Draft order.

Some of these picks are surprising, I know. But the top ten picks are all about value. Sure a team hopes the value matches need, but that's not always the case (see: Arizona). In that situation, smart fanchises should go for Best Player Available.

Assumptions:

1) Sam Baker won't come out

2) Jeff Samardzija will play baseball.

3) Michael Bush returns to school.

1. Detroit - Joe Thomas - OT, Wisconsin -

Marinelli has repeatedly voiced his support for Kitna and while Jon's no world beater he is good enough. Brady Quinn does not fix this team and after seeing what Mangini did in New York by building o-line first, the Lions finally "get it" and start building the trenches.

2. Oakland - Brady Quinn - QB, Notre Dame -

A mixed blessing for the Raiders. Sure they'd rather upgrade the o-line, but nobody's worth it now that Thomas is off the board. Neither Brooks nor Walters are the long-term answer, so this is an easy pick for the Raiders. At the very least, Quinn should sell some tickets and merchandise for the Raiders who surprisingly are in the bottom third of sales in the latter category.

3. Arizona - Alan Branch - DT, Michigan -

Again, o-line is the obvious need, but not obvious value. Branch is a monster who will team up with his old Michigan teammate Gabe Watson (as well as Kendrick Clancy) to give the Cards a great interior line. This is also a good chance for them to move down and get more picks as moving to the 5-10 spot, getting an extra pick and taking a guy like Jake Long or Levi Brown makes sense.

4. Tampa Bay - Calvin Johnson - WR, Georgia Tech

The defense is getting old fast, but so is Joey Galloway. And Clayton just can't seem to repeat the success from a year ago. Johnson adds much needed skill to a team that needs some for its QB (whoever that will be) and RB to be more productive.

5. Green Bay - Adrian Peterson - RB, Oklahoma

Need meets value and Green Bay gets their pick in with 14:59 left on the pick clock.

6. Washington - Gaines Adams - DE, Clemson

Need & value collide once again. They could also go with a guy like Leon Hall here as Springs' injury has really been bad and may linger and there's NOBODY on the opposite side.

7. Houston - Marshawn Lynch - RB, Cal

With the style of offense that the Texans run, employing the "one-cut" style of running, Lynch is a lock for this pick. They may have missed out (on purpose) on Bush last year, but get a player better suited to their style this year. When you employe Ron Dayne as your starting running back, it screams that you need to take a RB in the first. Comparisons to J.J. Arrington stop at "same school".

8. Cleveland - Justin Blaylock - OG/OT, Texas

The Madden curse ain't got nothing on the Browns. As the pick is made, tears are seen streaming from Blaylock's knees. Dr. James Andrews adds Blaylock to #1 on his cell phone's speed dial.

But seriously. Blaylock adds a lot to a bad, bad Brown o-line.

9. Minnesota - Laron Landry - S, L.S.U.

It's a good thing Brad Childress is so smart so that he doesn't have to add talent to the WR corps. They will either add a QB in free agency or start Tavaris Jackson. The o-line is playing better. Cedric Griffin is the real deal opposite Winfield. Greenway and Erasmus James come back from injury. Landry can take either Smith's or Sharper's spot at safety. You thought this defense was good this year?...

10. St. Louis - Paul Posluzny - OLB, Penn St.

Demeco Ryans v2.0. He doesn't have the measurables that you look for. But all he does is make plays. The Rams leave 'Spoon in the middle and have Tinoisamoa and Posluzny outside.

11. San Francisco - Leon Hall - CB, Michigan

Value meets need. In fact it's a steal. Just what the doctor ordered for this emerging team.

12. Miami - Quinn Pitcock - DT, Ohio St.

The d-line is oooold. They could go o-line as well, but that has been playing better of late.

13. Pittsburgh - Darrell Revis - CB, Pitt

Ike Taylor. Uber-bust. A need move by the Steelers and a hometown boy to boot. Again, o-line is an option.

14. Buffalo - Marcus McCauley - CB, Fresno St.

Will probably lose Clements, so this is a necessity.

15. Tennessee - Dwayne Jarrett - WR, USC

Now the overrated quarterback that wasn't good enough can throw to a reciever that wasn't good enough and they can beat teams repeatedly by being not good enough together.

16. Atlanta - Michael Griffin - S, Texas

Milloy is about done. Griffin fills a need and fills it well.

17. Carolina - Buster Davis - ILB, FSU

I thought about giving them JaMarcus Russell or Troy Smith too. But Davis is a great pick since Dan Morgan's career may be over.

18. Philadelphia - Reggie Nelson - S, Florida

Need safety help badly. Also in the running for Russell or Smith.

19. New York Giants - Demarcus Tyler - DT, NC State

Lots of needs for a team that doesn't appear to need much. They're paying the price for letting Clancy go. This increases the effectiveness of their world-class DEs. Other considerations are Daymeion Hughes and Sidney Rice.

20. New York Jets - Ray McDonald - DE, Florida

Need meets value once again.

21. Kansas City - Levi Brown - OT, Penn St.

Roaf is missed. O-line is aging.

22. Jacksonville - Jake Long - OT, Michigan

Yet another team that may take a chance at Russell or Smith as Lefty is likely gone. As a side note - I can't think of a less interesting team than Jacksonville.

23. Denver - LaMarr Woodley - DE, Michigan

Bookend DEs look nice to the Broncos.

24. Cincinnati - Amobi Okoye - DT, Louisville

They still can't stop the run. Maybe now they'll try.

25. New England (from Seattle) - Patrick Willis - ILB, Ole Miss

And the rest of the league still envies the Pats for the value they get later in the draft (1). With Seau done and the backer corps aging, Willis is the obvious pick.

26. Dallas - Ted Ginn Jr. - WR, Ohio St.

Because he has to go somewhere and Glenn is older and T.O. is...insane.

27. New Orleans - Rufus Alexander - OLB, Oklahoma

Linebacker is the obvious need and Rufus is a good one.

28. Baltimore - Troy Smith - QB, Ohio St.

Because Boller isn't the answer and McNair is still a valuable mentor for at least a year.

29. New England - Daymeion Hughes - CB, Cal

And the rest of the league still envies the Pats for the value they get later in the draft(2). They simply cannot continue to play Troy Brown in the defensive backfield. They likely will not re-sign Samuel.

30. Indianapolis - Earl Everett - OLB, Florida

June is likely gone.

31. Chicago - Jamarcus Russell - QB, L.S.U.

BEGONE Rex Grossman!

32. San Diego - Eric Weddle - S, Utah

Safety is the biggest need. This young team could be to the late 2000's what the Patriots were to the early.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I was just about to tweak my 1.0 into 1.1 and answer the questions I ignored, but that can wait. I'd rather read this one.

 

[-OZ-]

I like it, especially the Joe Thomas pick.

Houston going for their Rb this year makes sense, but what's up with Dom? Will he be back next year?

If so, they need to address other areas.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

Yikes.

 

[WittyName]

i will #### a gold brick if jamarcus russell drops to 31

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Yikes.

What? Too many LB's in the 1st? I can agree with that, I suppose.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

i will #### a gold brick if jamarcus russell drops to 31

I know. But at the same time, I couldn't see him as a good fit for most teams. Who do you think is most likely to take a chance on him? I can't see him any higher that #17 to Carolina.And don't say Minnesota.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Assumptions:1) Sam Baker won't come out

I can't recall if I deleted or sent my Sam Baker observations in the PMs volley, but he has had a bad year few want to discuss. After Matua went undrafted, I think Baker would be nuts to come out early. He was bullrushed by a 230 pound UCLA DE straight into Booty once for a pressure and once for a sack. He was beaten to the edge six times in that game alone. He completely blew his assignment on the first failed 4th and short and he was thoroughly chewed out for it on the sidelines. Then he made the exact same mistake on the next failed fourth and short. There's a thread at one of the draftnik forums out there discussing, realistically, just how bad he played this year. Baker is a nice athlete, big and strong. He is also very good man on man against anyone, but he is not a first rounder and he is not ready.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I'm commenting as I read. I like Branch at #3 and have moved him up in my revision.

 

[Native]

Andy,

Miami desperately needs help along the OL and in the secondary. They have a ton of depth along the DL. Some of those guys are old, but theyre all still very good. Plus they drafted Matt Roth, Fred Evans, and Rod Wright to challenge for time in the rotation. No way they go DL in round one unless a top 5-7 player drops to their spot

 

[Chaos Commish]

I'm currently convinced McCauley is very overrated. I even think I can source the beginnings of it, but it's long and boring. He has been moved out of my first round.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

Yikes.

What? Too many LB's in the 1st? I can agree with that, I suppose.

Didn't really start digging through it yet - just not ready to do offseason work yet . Plenty of down time for that.I will say one thing, the Bears aren't going anywhere near a QB in the early draft.They would sign a FA first. Why would they want another rookie QB?My guess is LB, then maybe a SS. I could also see them going for OL and WR on offense.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Andy, Miami desperately needs help along the OL and in the secondary. They have a ton of depth along the DL. Some of those guys are old, but theyre all still very good. Plus they drafted Matt Roth, Fred Evans, and Rod Wright to challenge for time in the rotation. No way they go DL in round one unless a top 5-7 player drops to their spot

That's true, and I almost went o-line for them. But I think the guys that are likely to be there don't represent as good a value as Pitcock does here. They should be able to find good help for the o-line in the 2nd/3rd rounds.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I will say one thing, the Bears aren't going anywhere near a QB in the early draft.They would sign a FA first. Why would they want another rookie QB?My guess is LB, then maybe a SS. I could also see them going for OL and WR on offense.

I think you're right. But at that spot, there aren't any SS or LB's with 1st round talent. The smart move would be to trade out of the spot like they did last year.However, WR is not an area of need in the 1st. And why would they want another rookie QB? Gee. I don't know.

 

[brewer]

Yikes.

What? Too many LB's in the 1st? I can agree with that, I suppose.

Strikes me as a ton of safetys too. A few minor thoughts.... I bet Posluzny drops due to measurables, then rewards the team that takes him by being a very solid LB for years to come. 10 just seems very high for a LB that will not grade out particularly well at the combine.I am starting to think that Drew Stanton will be a first round QB and Troy Smith will fall to the second. If he does, my thoughts on Posluzny translate to Smith.In other words, I think I agree with your talent assessment, but feel that the NFL teams will downgrade both of these players because PP is not super fast and TS is not super tall.Solid mock in all.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Okoye is an interesting story for those who don't know it. He's a draft eligible graduating senior with 4 years of D1 experience and just turned 20 years old. That's right. He played D1 at the age of 16. He came here from Africa and was way ahead scholastically so they moved him up. He's a fun story and his youth has some people thinking he has great value, but he wasn't nearly as good as Montavious Stanley last year and Stanley couldn't stick with the Cowboys who really need help in the middle. I think Amobi is sexy for mock purposes but a second day talent. He got run over quite a bit late this season.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I am starting to think that Drew Stanton will be a first round QB and Troy Smith will fall to the second.

Stanton was too up and down to be a first rounder, IMO.

 

[gman74]

hoping jake long falls to the 2nd that would be a nice draft for the lions. joe and jake

 

[Chaos Commish]

Ginn to Dallas. I wish Andy, I really do. One, I doubt he falls so far. Two, Parcells is rather firmly on the record being against the notion of round 1 wide receivers. Still, you always do a nice job taking care of Dallas in these mocks.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

I will say one thing, the Bears aren't going anywhere near a QB in the early draft.They would sign a FA first. Why would they want another rookie QB?My guess is LB, then maybe a SS. I could also see them going for OL and WR on offense.

I think you're right. But at that spot, there aren't any SS or LB's with 1st round talent. The smart move would be to trade out of the spot like they did last year.However, WR is not an area of need in the 1st. And why would they want another rookie QB? Gee. I don't know.

I think a LB will probably drop by the time we get to the draft. Funny how the combine changes peoples lists........Think cover LB - smallish with speed. Big with coverage speed - even better.I definetly trust Mr Angelo to find a defensive stud. Thats what he does best. ETA: Also think Brady Quinn goes much lower. He is a product of the offense. I think most people know that.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I am starting to think that Drew Stanton will be a first round QB and Troy Smith will fall to the second.

Stanton was too up and down to be a first rounder, IMO.

But he's going to test and measure with a franchise grade, call him a 90 if Big Ben was a 91 (using NFL Draft Scouts system). It's going to be close and it will depend, obviously, on how many teams want top QBs. I could see them both in round one with Brohm out of the picture.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Ginn to Dallas. I wish Andy, I really do. One, I doubt he falls so far. Two, Parcells is rather firmly on the record being against the notion of round 1 wide receivers. Still, you always do a nice job taking care of Dallas in these mocks.

His size is a big red flag to me. Steve Smith is the exception, not the rule. I see him slipping just like Sinorice Moss did last year and for the same reason.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

ETA: Also think Brady Quinn goes much lower. He is a product of the offense. I think most people know that.

His situation reminds me of Alex Smith. He won't look good the first year, for many factors, but will turn it around the 2nd and be the franchise player the supporters thought he'd be.

 

[brewer]

By the way, welcome back Andy. You stay away for a while, then come back and start a thread that I can't stay out of!

 

[J R]

1. Detroit - Joe Thomas - OT, Wisconsin -

Marinelli has repeatedly voiced his support for Kitna and while Jon's no world beater he is good enough. Brady Quinn does not fix this team and after seeing what Mangini did in New York by building o-line first, the Lions finally "get it" and start building the trenches.

2. Oakland - Brady Quinn - QB, Notre Dame -

A mixed blessing for the Raiders. Sure they'd rather upgrade the o-line, but nobody's worth it now that Thomas is off the board. Neither Brooks nor Walters are the long-term answer, so this is an easy pick for the Raiders. At the very least, Quinn should sell some tickets and merchandise for the Raiders who surprisingly are in the bottom third of sales in the latter category.

You know, it wasn't so long ago that Oakland appeared to "get it" and started building the trenches, by drafting OT and then C with their 1st and 2nd picks in 2004. Now they need an "upgrade."

 

[Andy Dufresne]

By the way, welcome back Andy. You stay away for a while, then come back and start a thread that I can't stay out of!

 

[Chaos Commish]

Okay, I finished it. Nice job. Everrett is a player I set out to specifically scout and Siler made all the plays. Everett looks soft to me. Like a small forward with lots of quicks and ahtleticism making easy tackles, but I am not impressed with his physical presence. He looks weak, easily overpowered. I don't think he has the juice of a first rounder. I'm open minded though. OLBs get love over ILBs early in drafts.

 

[derek19]

Draft order.

Some of these picks are surprising, I know. But the top ten picks are all about value. Sure a team hopes the value matches need, but that's not always the case (see: Arizona). In that situation, smart fanchises should go for Best Player Available.

11. San Francisco - Leon Hall - CB, Michigan

Value meets need. In fact it's a steal. Just what the doctor ordered for this emerging team.

I'm loving that. 49ers need to go CB and/or LB with their first two picks. 3rd pick, a big fat D-lineman would be nice.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

1. Detroit - Joe Thomas - OT, Wisconsin -

Marinelli has repeatedly voiced his support for Kitna and while Jon's no world beater he is good enough. Brady Quinn does not fix this team and after seeing what Mangini did in New York by building o-line first, the Lions finally "get it" and start building the trenches.

2. Oakland - Brady Quinn - QB, Notre Dame -

A mixed blessing for the Raiders. Sure they'd rather upgrade the o-line, but nobody's worth it now that Thomas is off the board. Neither Brooks nor Walters are the long-term answer, so this is an easy pick for the Raiders. At the very least, Quinn should sell some tickets and merchandise for the Raiders who surprisingly are in the bottom third of sales in the latter category.

You know, it wasn't so long ago that Oakland appeared to "get it" and started building the trenches, by drafting OT and then C with their 1st and 2nd picks in 2004. Now they need an "upgrade."

The franchise "got it". Too bad the picks themselves didn't. Who knew Gallery would flame out like he has?The Lions have never "gotten it."

 

[strong]

i will #### a gold brick if jamarcus russell drops to 31

Great Blue North Report has him falling out of the first round, too (and Troy Smith moving up to 30...) ... just sayin...

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

thanks for having SD winning the superbowl

 

[Chaos Commish]

Ginn to Dallas. I wish Andy, I really do. One, I doubt he falls so far. Two, Parcells is rather firmly on the record being against the notion of round 1 wide receivers. Still, you always do a nice job taking care of Dallas in these mocks.

His size is a big red flag to me. Steve Smith is the exception, not the rule. I see him slipping just like Sinorice Moss did last year and for the same reason.

I've said before I'll be debunking the many Ginn myths. He's 6-0 tall. Sinorice and Steve Smith are not comparisons. Ginn is also very very strong physically, so you could compare him to Smith in that regard.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

thanks for having SD winning the superbowl

They played well WITHOUT Merriman and now he's back.And Ladainian is unstoppable. The turning point this season was taking the diapers off Rivers.

 

[BigRed]

I bet Posluzny drops due to measurables, then rewards the team that takes him by being a very solid LB for years to come

Agree w/this.

The Lions have never "gotten it."

The Lions have invested more in OL than most seem to realize and IMO it aint so horrible. Not that Thomas would exactly hurt.A few other quick thoughts:- I have a weird feeling DET won't draft #1 - just a hunch,. Beside we all know they're gunning for Calvin J. I don't buy them going for Quinn either and don't think they should even tho an upgrade is needed. - Al Davis would rather kiss Shanny on the lips than draft a QB that high.- Agree on Fins going OL. Brown, IMO.- I think Jarrett drops a little more due to lack of speed. Whether he should or not is debatable.- Colts will trade down and draft a midget safety (then reach on a CB and/or LB they could have gotten a round or 2 later). I think it's etched into the walls in Polian's office or something.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Ginn to Dallas. I wish Andy, I really do. One, I doubt he falls so far. Two, Parcells is rather firmly on the record being against the notion of round 1 wide receivers. Still, you always do a nice job taking care of Dallas in these mocks.

His size is a big red flag to me. Steve Smith is the exception, not the rule. I see him slipping just like Sinorice Moss did last year and for the same reason.

I've said before I'll be debunking the many Ginn myths. He's 6-0 tall. Sinorice and Steve Smith are not comparisons. Ginn is also very very strong physically, so you could compare him to Smith in that regard.

I guess I was talking more about their "mass" than height. He appears "slight" to me. Maybe I need to watch more.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

- Al Davis would rather kiss Shanny on the lips than draft a QB that high.

I thought about that. But he does have a history (ancient though it may be, look back) of taking a QB in the 1st. He needs to do SOMETHING to jumpstart his team.

- I think Jarrett drops a little more due to lack of speed. Whether he should or not is debatable.

I think he'll time out a lot faster than people think. I saw the 4.60/40 time in a couple places, but from what I gather, he's brought that down a bit. Maybe not. We'll see at the combine.

- Colts will trade down and draft a midget safety (then reach on a CB and/or LB they could have gotten a round or 2 later). I think it's etched into the walls in Polian's office or something.

The other option is Sidney Rice. He'd be a nice #3, wouldn't he? Need doesn't match value very well for the Colts at the bottom of the 1st.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Ginn to Dallas. I wish Andy, I really do. One, I doubt he falls so far. Two, Parcells is rather firmly on the record being against the notion of round 1 wide receivers. Still, you always do a nice job taking care of Dallas in these mocks.

His size is a big red flag to me. Steve Smith is the exception, not the rule. I see him slipping just like Sinorice Moss did last year and for the same reason.

I've said before I'll be debunking the many Ginn myths. He's 6-0 tall. Sinorice and Steve Smith are not comparisons. Ginn is also very very strong physically, so you could compare him to Smith in that regard.

I guess I was talking more about their "mass" than height. He appears "slight" to me. Maybe I need to watch more.

He is very lean, like Harrison, but much more powerful. Not that Marvin needed more power, just that Ginn breaks a lot of tackles Harrison wouldn't. I think Ginn has Marvin Harrison potential, but Harrison's greatness has always been between his ears as much as anything else, and I don't know how to measure things like that.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

well thought out, interesting mock, andy (i like non-vanilla variety like this )...

there seems to be a consensus that AP & calvin johnson are elite athletes... count chocula loves to collect stud athletes, so i wonder if one of them might go there...

i agree brooks & walters almost certainly not the answer, but i'm trying to think of last time all davis entrusted team to a rookie QB... if he has to be groomed for a year, will that fit MO of the decrepit & impatient OAK warlord...

there also seems to be big division on how good quinn is HERE, but not as sure about in scouting community...

obviously this pick will have a completely different look if they go after a leftwich or plummer type in offseason...

jordan did have a very good 05, but didn't seem to show same burst in 06 (having 10 defenders crash in on LOS as soon as ball is snapped will tend to do that)... maybe the cap implications won't permit jettisoning him so quickly, but AP may be good enough that davis could find it tempting...

moss has underwhelmed, porter wants out of dodge, so johnson could spearhead OAKs (ususally) signature & beloved downfield passing attack for next decade... at which time count chocula will only have a few decades left in his tenure...

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Great stuff, as always. Of course I have to weigh in on Pittsburgh.....

I don't think you can call Ike Taylor an Uber-bust. Ricardo Colclough is more deserving of that label. Taylor was a late 4th round pick who played his way up the depth chart to the point where he was at a near- Pro Bowl level last season. He seems to have regressed this year, but he hasn't been horrendous, and is still likely the team's best cover corner. I think the Steelers still see him and McFadden as their cover guys for the future, so I doubt they go CB in round 1. I think LB (actually, a DE to convert, like Gaines Adams if he's there) or OL is more likely, but tackle is probably the least of their concerns. A guy like Blaylock might be a possibility if he's around, otherwise a trade down a few spots for someone like Kyle Young seems like an option.

 

[MLBrandow]

Draft order.

1. Detroit - Joe Thomas - OT, Wisconsin -

Marinelli has repeatedly voiced his support for Kitna and while Jon's no world beater he is good enough. Brady Quinn does not fix this team and after seeing what Mangini did in New York by building o-line first, the Lions finally "get it" and start building the trenches.

15. Tennessee - Dwayne Jarrett - WR, USC

Now the overrated quarterback that wasn't good enough can throw to a reciever that wasn't good enough and they can beat teams repeatedly by being not good enough together.

18. Philadelphia - Reggie Nelson - S, Florida

Need safety help badly. Also in the running for Russell or Smith.

22. Jacksonville - Jake Long - OT, Michigan

Yet another team that may take a chance at Russell or Smith as Lefty is likely gone. As a side note - I can't think of a less interesting team than Jacksonville.

28. Baltimore - Troy Smith - QB, Ohio St.

Because Boller isn't the answer and McNair is still a valuable mentor for at least a year.

31. Chicago - Jamarcus Russell - QB, L.S.U.

BEGONE Rex Grossman!

A lot of your picks sound like money.These I have problems with:

1)This implies that Millen is fired. Do you believe so? I think at 1 they pick a poster boy for their franchise in Quinn, regardless of Marinelli's opinion. I think Millen stays one more year honestly, even though he should have been gone long ago.

15) Why do you think TEN drafts another young WR when it has more significant needs elsewhere on OL, DL and DB? Agree with the USC connection here.. but I think that TEN currently has the breakout WR stock to where they certainly don't need to take one with their first pick.

And regarding 18, 22, 28 and 31, I don't agree with your QB analysis at all.

18) Why would PHI spend a #1 pick on a QB when McNabb is so good? People boo him because they are Phili fans, which almost qualifies them as idiots by default. McNabb is a top-5 QB in this league, arguably top-3 behind Manning and Brady.

22) No way Jags pick a QB when they have two rostered. I'm not sold that they'll let Leftwich go, and if they do, they deserve to lose him. He's more talented than Garrard and a better passer. The only thing Garrard has on him is his mobility. Plus, if Leftwich is gone as you surmise, it is because they feel Garrard is their QB of the future.

28) Tickle me 2003, but I still feel like Boller will be a solid QB in this league, and I still feel it will be in Baltimore. In fact, when McNair expectedly goes down with some injury in the next few games, I expect him to lead them through a deep playoff push.

31) Rex Grossman is a quality QB. It's not his fault that the team won't bench him because of his hand injury. He is not making poor decisions so much that his mechanics are suffering due to the strained ligaments in his palm. There's no way they kick him to the curb after this season.

Also, while I feel that both Smith and Russell are definitely first-round talent, because of the lack of QB need right now in this league, I don't think either makes it into the first round. I think where you have them going (late first) is probably their best bet.

I could see several teams jumping all over them in the second round though, regardless of need.

Outside of those picks, I really think this mock is pretty well-done, and a handful of those picks (Lynch to HOU, Posluzny to STL) sound like virtual locks to me.

By the way, Justin Blalock probably gets sick of people misspelling his name .

Look forward to reading a 2nd version! I'll try to follow the cool kids and roll out a mock when I get a break in the next few weeks.

 

[nightshift]

Good job.

I can see Pittsburgh going offensive line in round 1. Big time. Even trading up for the guy they want.

Dallas taking a WR? doubtful. They got guys like Crayton & Hurd in the wings. Maybe later in the draft, but not round 1. I do agree on Glenn. I think this could be his last season in Dallas.

Oakland needs offensive linemen. Gotta be a high priority.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

thanks for having SD winning the superbowl

They played well WITHOUT Merriman and now he's back.And Ladainian is unstoppable. The turning point this season was taking the diapers off Rivers.

Which was the week after not letting rivers beat Baltimore, still could cost them homefield in the playoffs.God I hope the Lions do anything but draft Brady quinn

 

[Bob_Magaw]

Great stuff, as always. Of course I have to weigh in on Pittsburgh.....I don't think you can call Ike Taylor an Uber-bust. Ricardo Colclough is more deserving of that label. Taylor was a late 4th round pick who played his way up the depth chart to the point where he was at a near- Pro Bowl level last season. He seems to have regressed this year, but he hasn't been horrendous, and is still likely the team's best cover corner. I think the Steelers still see him and McFadden as their cover guys for the future, so I doubt they go CB in round 1. I think LB (actually, a DE to convert, like Gaines Adams if he's there) or OL is more likely, but tackle is probably the least of their concerns. A guy like Blaylock might be a possibility if he's around, otherwise a trade down a few spots for someone like Kyle Young seems like an option.

i was thinking same thing... mcfadden looked great in limited action in 05... in two games as starter this season, he has like 20 tackles & 1 INT...i agree for STL defense is a virtual certainty... likely DL or LB... new personnel hondo tony softli likes smart, tough, high character athletes, so puh-leez could fit the bill & represent the hoped for intersection between value/need. another LB possibility might be top MLB prospect & shift witherspoon... he can play in middle & has similar skill set to mike peterson, but without stroud & hendo in front of him, it may not be natural scheme fit... * & addressing another point made above, i think there is a very high percentage lefty has played his last down for JAX... though i agree he is better than garrard & they will probably regret it... the move could benefit leftwich if he is appreciated more wherever he (hypothetically) goes, and especially if he goes to a destination that is better fit for his talents...

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Great stuff, as always. Of course I have to weigh in on Pittsburgh.....I don't think you can call Ike Taylor an Uber-bust. Ricardo Colclough is more deserving of that label. Taylor was a late 4th round pick who played his way up the depth chart to the point where he was at a near- Pro Bowl level last season. He seems to have regressed this year, but he hasn't been horrendous, and is still likely the team's best cover corner. I think the Steelers still see him and McFadden as their cover guys for the future, so I doubt they go CB in round 1.

I meant bust as in what they got this year compared to what they paid for. Not where they drafted him.

I think LB (actually, a DE to convert, like Gaines Adams if he's there) or OL is more likely, but tackle is probably the least of their concerns. A guy like Blaylock might be a possibility if he's around, otherwise a trade down a few spots for someone like Kyle Young seems like an option.

A lot depends on their draft position.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

i agree brooks & walters almost certainly not the answer, but i'm trying to think of last time all davis entrusted team to a rookie QB... if he has to be groomed for a year, will that fit MO of the decrepit & impatient OAK warlord...

I think Brooks has a two year contract. Quinn wouldn't have to start right away. Regardless, it's impossible to predict insanity: vis a vis Al Davis.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

These I have problems with:

1)This implies that Millen is fired. Do you believe so? I think at 1 they pick a poster boy for their franchise in Quinn, regardless of Marinelli's opinion. I think Millen stays one more year honestly, even though he should have been gone long ago.

I guess it was wishful thinking. It could go either way at this point.

15) Why do you think TEN drafts another young WR when it has more significant needs elsewhere on OL, DL and DB? Agree with the USC connection here.. but I think that TEN currently has the breakout WR stock to where they certainly don't need to take one with their first pick.

I don't see any "breakout WR" on their roster. Bennett is likely gone. That leaves Wade/Roby/Jones/Williams/Orr. Not much there. Jarrett is an instant upgrade IMO. But they could go OL or DB too. There's value in those positions from that draft spot.

18) Why would PHI spend a #1 pick on a QB when McNabb is so good? People boo him because they are Phili fans, which almost qualifies them as idiots by default. McNabb is a top-5 QB in this league, arguably top-3 behind Manning and Brady.

Because he's 30 and injured. He might not be back until mid-season next year. And the Eagles are on the verge of a shakeup.

22) No way Jags pick a QB when they have two rostered. I'm not sold that they'll let Leftwich go, and if they do, they deserve to lose him. He's more talented than Garrard and a better passer. The only thing Garrard has on him is his mobility. Plus, if Leftwich is gone as you surmise, it is because they feel Garrard is their QB of the future.

That's why I went o-line instead. I think they play Garrard. I also think it's stupid and that they should keep Leftwich.

28) Tickle me 2003, but I still feel like Boller will be a solid QB in this league, and I still feel it will be in Baltimore. In fact, when McNair expectedly goes down with some injury in the next few games, I expect him to lead them through a deep playoff push.

You may want to get yourself checked out then. Remember, the guys in the white jackets are your friends.

31) Rex Grossman is a quality QB. It's not his fault that the team won't bench him because of his hand injury. He is not making poor decisions so much that his mechanics are suffering due to the strained ligaments in his palm. There's no way they kick him to the curb after this season.

Now there's info I did not know.

Also, while I feel that both Smith and Russell are definitely first-round talent, because of the lack of QB need right now in this league, I don't think either makes it into the first round. I think where you have them going (late first) is probably their best bet.

I could see several teams jumping all over them in the second round though, regardless of need.

There could be some that trade up a bit into the latter part of the 1st as well. That's why I think the Lions roll the dice with Thomas as the 1st rounder, expecting Russell, Smith, or even Stanton to be their 2nd pick. That would be a nice start for them, wouldn't it?

By the way, Justin Blalock probably gets sick of people misspelling his name .

And I was going to make a point of getting it right too.

 

[tommyGunZ]

32. San Diego

Well done.

 

[The_Man]

Great job!

But as a Baltimore homer, I can offer insight that the Ravens will not take Troy Smith in the first round.

Their Scouting Director, Eric DeCosta, was on the radio last Tuesday (filling in on the "Brian Billick Show" since Billick was too busy during the short week to appear) and someone asked about Smith -- he said a fourth, maybe third, round pick who will be a decent NFL back-up but not a legit front-line starter.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Great job!But as a Baltimore homer, I can offer insight that the Ravens will not take Troy Smith in the first round.Their Scouting Director, Eric DeCosta, was on the radio last Tuesday (filling in on the "Brian Billick Show" since Billick was too busy during the short week to appear) and someone asked about Smith -- he said a fourth, maybe third, round pick who will be a decent NFL back-up but not a legit front-line starter.

Smoke screen.

 

[aposulli]

25. New England (from Seattle) - Patrick Willis - ILB, Ole Miss

And the rest of the league still envies the Pats for the value they get later in the draft (1). With Seau done and the backer corps aging, Willis is the obvious pick.

Lest we forget...