In conjunction with my other thread about the running game (http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=490459), I'd like to talk a few minutes about defense.
First off, I'm using the most recent two seasons; the sample size is still small, but it's nice to see similar results for both seasons.
(Note: the first number is 2011, the second is 2010)
Overall
Pts/G: -0.558 -0.72191
Big durr here - the more points the other team scores, the less wins you're likely to have.
Passing (Notable correlations)
Comp: 0.287 0.126
Att: 0.648 0.368
PCt: -0.449 -0.21557
Rate: -0.559 -0.538
TD: -0.183 -0.3
Int: 0.487 0.406
Rushing
Att: -0.742 -0.721
Att/Game: -0.742 -0.72
Yds: -0.571 -0.56
Avg/Rush: -0.0515 -0.162
Yds/Game: -0.572 -0.56
TD: -0.556 -.508
Lng: -0.403 -0.322
1st: -0.535 -0.567
A couple interesting things of note here. When it comes to volume, you win more when the other teams throw the ball a lot, and you lose more when other teams run the ball a lot; passing/rushing attempts are surprisingly very strongly correlated with wins and losses. This kind of makes sense - when teams get a lead, they tend to run the ball more, and when they're behind, they tend to throw the ball more. I would imagine this would be a huge lurking variable, but I don't really have the time or inclination to do more digging into situational variables.
Ironically (or not, given your opinion of it), how effectively the opposing team runs the ball (yards/carry) doesn't seem to have much of an impact at all. This seems counter-intuitive (at least to me). This seems to indicate that a good run-defense is a good offense.
A few correlations between stats (2011)
Points scored (offense) vs. Passing attempts (defense): .672.
Points scored (offense) vs. Passer rating (defense): -.108
The more you score, the more the other team has to throw to catch up. It doesn't seem to significantly help the defense, though.
Passing attempts (offense) vs. passing attempts (defense): .146
Passing attempts (offense) vs. rushing attempts (defense): -.718
The more you throw the ball, the much less likely the other team is to run it. It doesn't affect how much more likely the other team is to throw the ball, however.
Rushing avg. (defense) vs. rushing attempts (defense):.159
Just because a team is successful at running the ball against your defense does not mean that they continue to do it.
Passing TDs (offense) vs. rushing TDs (defense): -.568
The more you throw the ball, the less they run it. Shocker.
Rushing attempts(offense) vs. passing attempts (defense): -.735
Rushing attempts(offense) vs. passing TDs (defense): -.267
Rushing TDs (offense) vs. passing TDs (defense): .221
This one is really fascinating to me. Running the ball clearly reduces the amount of passes they throw, but doesn't seem to have as nearly a signficant impact on how effective they are.
Rushing attempts (offense) vs. passer rating (defense): -.324
Running the ball more is associated with a lower passer rating. Which causes the other is a different question.
More correlations vs. wins (for fun)
Passing
Yds: 0.279 -0.128
Avg/Comp: -0.351 -0.487
Yds/Game: 0.279 -0.129
1st%: -0.309 -0.461
20+: 0.24 -0.27
40+: -0.09 -0.391
Sack: 0.151 0.302
Rushing
1st%: -0.118 -0.147
20+: -0.345 -0.445
40+: -0.134 -0.194
FUM: -0.026 0.019
First off, I'm using the most recent two seasons; the sample size is still small, but it's nice to see similar results for both seasons.
(Note: the first number is 2011, the second is 2010)
Overall
Pts/G: -0.558 -0.72191
Big durr here - the more points the other team scores, the less wins you're likely to have.
Passing (Notable correlations)
Comp: 0.287 0.126
Att: 0.648 0.368
PCt: -0.449 -0.21557
Rate: -0.559 -0.538
TD: -0.183 -0.3
Int: 0.487 0.406
Rushing
Att: -0.742 -0.721
Att/Game: -0.742 -0.72
Yds: -0.571 -0.56
Avg/Rush: -0.0515 -0.162
Yds/Game: -0.572 -0.56
TD: -0.556 -.508
Lng: -0.403 -0.322
1st: -0.535 -0.567
A couple interesting things of note here. When it comes to volume, you win more when the other teams throw the ball a lot, and you lose more when other teams run the ball a lot; passing/rushing attempts are surprisingly very strongly correlated with wins and losses. This kind of makes sense - when teams get a lead, they tend to run the ball more, and when they're behind, they tend to throw the ball more. I would imagine this would be a huge lurking variable, but I don't really have the time or inclination to do more digging into situational variables.
Ironically (or not, given your opinion of it), how effectively the opposing team runs the ball (yards/carry) doesn't seem to have much of an impact at all. This seems counter-intuitive (at least to me). This seems to indicate that a good run-defense is a good offense.
A few correlations between stats (2011)
Points scored (offense) vs. Passing attempts (defense): .672.
Points scored (offense) vs. Passer rating (defense): -.108
The more you score, the more the other team has to throw to catch up. It doesn't seem to significantly help the defense, though.
Passing attempts (offense) vs. passing attempts (defense): .146
Passing attempts (offense) vs. rushing attempts (defense): -.718
The more you throw the ball, the much less likely the other team is to run it. It doesn't affect how much more likely the other team is to throw the ball, however.
Rushing avg. (defense) vs. rushing attempts (defense):.159
Just because a team is successful at running the ball against your defense does not mean that they continue to do it.
Passing TDs (offense) vs. rushing TDs (defense): -.568
The more you throw the ball, the less they run it. Shocker.
Rushing attempts(offense) vs. passing attempts (defense): -.735
Rushing attempts(offense) vs. passing TDs (defense): -.267
Rushing TDs (offense) vs. passing TDs (defense): .221
This one is really fascinating to me. Running the ball clearly reduces the amount of passes they throw, but doesn't seem to have as nearly a signficant impact on how effective they are.
Rushing attempts (offense) vs. passer rating (defense): -.324
Running the ball more is associated with a lower passer rating. Which causes the other is a different question.
More correlations vs. wins (for fun)
Passing
Yds: 0.279 -0.128
Avg/Comp: -0.351 -0.487
Yds/Game: 0.279 -0.129
1st%: -0.309 -0.461
20+: 0.24 -0.27
40+: -0.09 -0.391
Sack: 0.151 0.302
Rushing
1st%: -0.118 -0.147
20+: -0.345 -0.445
40+: -0.134 -0.194
FUM: -0.026 0.019
