Jayrod
Footballguy
There is enough discussion out there on Matthews, Spiller & Best to choke a horse, so this isn't about them. I considered including Hardesty in this discussion, but he is a pretty clear cut #4 and in a tier all his own, IMO. So here is a list of RB's I'd like to see you guys discuss and rank out for dynasty purposes.
Toby Gerhardt, MIN - Age 23 - Besides being the great white hope, Gerhardt is a clear cut handcuff for AP owners. His rookie rankings show him next in line after the four I mentioned above, but what good is a guy to your team if he is a backup for the next 4 years? AP isn't going anywhere and he sure isn't going to lose much action to Gerhardt this year and likely next. Maybe it becomes more of a true RBBC in 3 years if Gerhardt plays well? Is that the best case scenario? Unless you have AP or plan on trading Toby to the AP owner in the event of an injury, I don't see a lot of long term value here.
Anthony Dixon, SF - Age 23 - With the sudden retirement of Glen Coffee, Dixon shoots up the list. But now there is Westbrook to contend with this year, so he likely stays as a #3 back this year. And Gore is another stud, so unless there is an injury, Dixon has little to no value over the next 2-3 years. And what about after Gore? Is Dixon good enough to be a #1 RB? He is an SEC back with talent and could perform if given the opportunity, but how long until that happens?
Ben Tate, HOU - Age 22 - Before his injury he would have been on top of this list or even left off it next to Hardesty. Instead, here he is and dropping. What do you do with a guy who was questionable to be a starter in the first place and now will miss the entire season? Can he catch back on in 2011? He is still young, but is at an increased risk of busting by being out of action for a whole season. I guess if you league allows it, you could draft him and then just put him on the IR for the season, thus saving a roster spot.
Jonathan Dwyer, PIT - Age 21 - While he has the ability to become part of a RBBC in Pittsburgh, he came in out of shape, has been dinged up in camp and was drafted in the 6th round. All that doesn't bode well for his future, but it takes talent plus opportunity and Dwyer may actually have both. Mendenhall hasn't shown a full season of performance yet and I've read that Dwyer is a very powerful runner. Still, I don't really think he'll overtake Mendenhall and his best case scenario looks to be a goal line TD vulture/Mendenhall handcuff. He could have value in non-PPR or TD only leagues, but not as much in PPR.
James Starks, GB - Age 24 - Starks is older and missed a lot of his senior year with an injury. He is also from a small school. However, scouts thought his talent was more like a 2-3rd rounder and he can supposedly catch the ball well. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a chance with the Packers since Grant hasn't been a superstar and Jacobs has disappointed. With the focus on the passing game, the Packers backfield is actually a sweet spot to land for a back with receiving skills.
Deji Karim, JAX - Age 24 - He comes into a situation similar to many of these guys and is behind a stud RB, except Jones-Drew is solid and hasn't had any injury history to speak of. There is also the matter of 2nd year back Jennings being in competition for the backup role. One feather in Karim's cap is that he appears to be the team's primary kick returner which means he'll be on the roster and able to show some of his talents as well as provide value for those in KR leagues.
Joe McKnight - NYJ - Age 21 - McKnight comes from a big-time program, but there seems to be little expectation of him doing much in the pros. He is currently behind HOFer LT and a very young and capable Shonn Greene. The Jets are a prime location for a RB, but unless the two guys in front of him go down, McKnight will be lucky to see the field this year at all. However, he could move to #2 after LT is gone and the same talents that got him a place in the USC backfield could land him in at least some kind of role with the Jets. He is a supposed to be good receiver, but hasn't put anything together yet this year. I think of him as a real longshot to ever be fantasy relevant.
LaGarrette Blount, TEN - Age 24 - Blount is most famous for a punch thrown after his Oregon Ducks lost a tough game to Boise State last season. He was suspended for most of the season and severly hurt is draft chances. He actually went undrafted, but has landed with a team that could use a back to replace LenDale White. While Chris Johnson isn't going anywhere, Blount could earn a role if he can beat out Javon Ringer. But how valuable can he be with the best RB in football around and a running QB? Unless he impresses the team to become the #2 and CJ gets hurt, I don't think Blount has any value except in super deep leagues.
Well, what say you on these guys? Anyone else you think needs to be considered?
I just don't see this as a very deep RB draft class.
Toby Gerhardt, MIN - Age 23 - Besides being the great white hope, Gerhardt is a clear cut handcuff for AP owners. His rookie rankings show him next in line after the four I mentioned above, but what good is a guy to your team if he is a backup for the next 4 years? AP isn't going anywhere and he sure isn't going to lose much action to Gerhardt this year and likely next. Maybe it becomes more of a true RBBC in 3 years if Gerhardt plays well? Is that the best case scenario? Unless you have AP or plan on trading Toby to the AP owner in the event of an injury, I don't see a lot of long term value here.
Anthony Dixon, SF - Age 23 - With the sudden retirement of Glen Coffee, Dixon shoots up the list. But now there is Westbrook to contend with this year, so he likely stays as a #3 back this year. And Gore is another stud, so unless there is an injury, Dixon has little to no value over the next 2-3 years. And what about after Gore? Is Dixon good enough to be a #1 RB? He is an SEC back with talent and could perform if given the opportunity, but how long until that happens?
Ben Tate, HOU - Age 22 - Before his injury he would have been on top of this list or even left off it next to Hardesty. Instead, here he is and dropping. What do you do with a guy who was questionable to be a starter in the first place and now will miss the entire season? Can he catch back on in 2011? He is still young, but is at an increased risk of busting by being out of action for a whole season. I guess if you league allows it, you could draft him and then just put him on the IR for the season, thus saving a roster spot.
Jonathan Dwyer, PIT - Age 21 - While he has the ability to become part of a RBBC in Pittsburgh, he came in out of shape, has been dinged up in camp and was drafted in the 6th round. All that doesn't bode well for his future, but it takes talent plus opportunity and Dwyer may actually have both. Mendenhall hasn't shown a full season of performance yet and I've read that Dwyer is a very powerful runner. Still, I don't really think he'll overtake Mendenhall and his best case scenario looks to be a goal line TD vulture/Mendenhall handcuff. He could have value in non-PPR or TD only leagues, but not as much in PPR.
James Starks, GB - Age 24 - Starks is older and missed a lot of his senior year with an injury. He is also from a small school. However, scouts thought his talent was more like a 2-3rd rounder and he can supposedly catch the ball well. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a chance with the Packers since Grant hasn't been a superstar and Jacobs has disappointed. With the focus on the passing game, the Packers backfield is actually a sweet spot to land for a back with receiving skills.
Deji Karim, JAX - Age 24 - He comes into a situation similar to many of these guys and is behind a stud RB, except Jones-Drew is solid and hasn't had any injury history to speak of. There is also the matter of 2nd year back Jennings being in competition for the backup role. One feather in Karim's cap is that he appears to be the team's primary kick returner which means he'll be on the roster and able to show some of his talents as well as provide value for those in KR leagues.
Joe McKnight - NYJ - Age 21 - McKnight comes from a big-time program, but there seems to be little expectation of him doing much in the pros. He is currently behind HOFer LT and a very young and capable Shonn Greene. The Jets are a prime location for a RB, but unless the two guys in front of him go down, McKnight will be lucky to see the field this year at all. However, he could move to #2 after LT is gone and the same talents that got him a place in the USC backfield could land him in at least some kind of role with the Jets. He is a supposed to be good receiver, but hasn't put anything together yet this year. I think of him as a real longshot to ever be fantasy relevant.
LaGarrette Blount, TEN - Age 24 - Blount is most famous for a punch thrown after his Oregon Ducks lost a tough game to Boise State last season. He was suspended for most of the season and severly hurt is draft chances. He actually went undrafted, but has landed with a team that could use a back to replace LenDale White. While Chris Johnson isn't going anywhere, Blount could earn a role if he can beat out Javon Ringer. But how valuable can he be with the best RB in football around and a running QB? Unless he impresses the team to become the #2 and CJ gets hurt, I don't think Blount has any value except in super deep leagues.
Well, what say you on these guys? Anyone else you think needs to be considered?
I just don't see this as a very deep RB draft class.
Out of that group I like Starks, Dixon, Dwyer at their respective ADPs. This is assuming Dwyer has slipped in ADP, he's not a 1st rounder in a rookie draft for me.
He's a pretty good receiver and has improved quite a bit in pass protection.
