The Martz effect (1 Viewer)

[baconisgood]

There was a two part article on the Martz effect last week for subscribers and I felt it was of very low value. I won't discuss protected content but I would like to list my reasons for thinking the Martz effect on the 49ers this year will be overblown, and would like to hear counterpoints since I know I am biased against Martz and love hating him.

Exhibit 1 is his time as Rams offensive coordinator. When he signed up in 1999 the Rams had a poor offense, they went on to be huge the next few years. How much of this can we attribute to Mike Martz though? There were massive personal changes to the Rams that year.

a. Marshall Faulk. 26 year old, future Hall of Fame RB. Thats a hell of an addition, especially considering the Rams leading rusher in 1998 was Robert Holcombe with 98 carries for 230 yards (or june henley with 88 attempts for 313 yards). Their situation in 1997 was better, but not that much.

b. Tory Holt's rookie year, 788 yards + 6tds. Hes been to two pro bowls without Martz. An upgrade over Amp Lee and Ricky Proehl (leading receivers in 1998) for sure.

c. Return of Issac Bruce. Bruce played in 5 games in 1998 and 16 in 1999. Also a big upgrade over the top receivers in 1998.

d. Kurt Warner. Sure he was an amazing story, but since leaving the Rams he has shown that when healthy he is an NFL talent. The 1998 version? Tony Banks and his career 54.2% completion percentage with a few games of Steve Bono and his career 54.9% thrown in.

4 upgrades at skill positions with talent on the offensive line already in place. How much credit are we going to give Martz's system and how much for those upgrades?

Exhibit 2 2006 Detroit had another bad offense that Martz 'boosted'. addtions?

a. Kitna > Harrington/Garcia. Kitna is no world beater, but has show that he is certainly better that Harrington in his career, and Garcia was clearly bad when in a system that didn't suit him (detroit/cleveland)

b. Roy Williams plays 16 games instead of 13 the year before.

c. Mike Furrey is brought in as a number 2 receiver. He hasn't had much of a career (well none really) other than his time in Detroit, but he was replacing scotty vines he spent two years in the league and totalled 43 catches.

Kevin Jones, Artose Pinner and Marcus Pollard combine for 87 catches in 2005 (46 Pollard, 21 Pinner, 20 Jones), and Jones, Pollard and Daniel Campbell combine for 93 in 2006 (61, 21, 12).

From 2006-2007 the Lions add

Calvin Johnson who has a solid season, Shaun McDonald who is more effective than hes ever been. They lose 4 games from Roy Williams and 6 starts from Kevin Jones.

From these two examples I feel its dubios to claim anything more than a moderate 'martz effect', he takes over poor offenses with crap personal. Better personal and he gets better results. This year he is again taking over crap, since it was the worst offense in the league last year its reasonable to assume an improvement. But hes still looking at the same guys as his QB, and hes got a 36 yr old Bruce and Bryant Johnson as his upgrades.

 

[Otis]

I think Frank Gore is going to have an absolute monster year.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I don't think Martz means #### in S.F. with the QB problems they have. The defense will continue to improve, but that just means more low-scoring games from an already low-scoring team.

 

[FantasyTrader]

You make an articulate point. I'm not a big Martz fan myself. This will be the telling year. If he turns water into wine with Alex Smith (or as Adam Shefter is reporting this morning J.T. O'Sullivan?) and Frank Gore turns in a top 7 fantasy performance then there's really NO doubting the Martz effect.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Trent Green, Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger...he even made Fitzpatrick look decent. He improved the Lions offense when he went there.

Even if he isn't the greatest mastermind of all time he's going to upgrade the Niners from last season.

Btw, if you gave Norv Turner the '99 Rams would he have fared as well? I highly doubt it. Imo the Rams of that season were a combination of a very good offensive coordinator and a very good offense.

Kind of like when you stick Montana with Walsh - the talent shines brighter than it would on its own because of a perfect match.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Honestly, if you look at Martz's NFL tenure, he is a career 2:1 pass:run ratio coach. Numbers are approximate, but I did this analysis earlier in the off-season and couldn't believe how one-sided it was throughout Matrz's tenure. Even when he had Faulk, he passed.

I think SF will be terrible this year. Nolan only has himself to blame...

 

[AnonymousBob]

You make an articulate point. I'm not a big Martz fan myself. This will be the telling year. If he turns water into wine with Alex Smith (or as Adam Shefter is reporting this morning J.T. O'Sullivan?) and Frank Gore turns in a top 7 fantasy performance then there's really NO doubting the Martz effect.

If Frank Gore was able to turn in top a top ten performance the last two seasons I'm not sure a top seven ranking would speak volumes about Martz's abilities...

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Average coaches can look good with talented players.

Martz had great talent in St. Louis. Good talent (at the skill positions) in Detroit.

Terrible talent in San Francisco.

 

[Jason Wood]

I think you may be right, but for the wrong reasons.

Martz' success in the passing game comes primarily from leaving his QB unprotected.

1999 -- 33 sacks

2000 -- 44 sacks

2001 -- 40 sacks

2002 -- 46 sacks

2003 -- 43 sacks

2004 -- 50 sacks

2005 -- 46 sacks

2006 -- 63 sacks

2007 -- 54 sacks

Now he's inheriting an offense that allowed 55 sacks last year WITHOUT playing the spread Martz attack. Unless you think the addition of Chilo Rachal is going to make this an above average offensive line, I don't see how the 49ers aren't an absolute revolving door at QB this year as each and every one of them gets pounded.

 

[blackjack23]

You make some great points about the Rams but you're really stretching things with the Lions

 

[baconisgood]

Trent Green, Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger...he even made Fitzpatrick look decent. He improved the Lions offense when he went there.Even if he isn't the greatest mastermind of all time he's going to upgrade the Niners from last season.Btw, if you gave Norv Turner the '99 Rams would he have fared as well? I highly doubt it. Imo the Rams of that season were a combination of a very good offensive coordinator and a very good offense. Kind of like when you stick Montana with Walsh - the talent shines brighter than it would on its own because of a perfect match.

I'm not trying to say that Martz is a bum, or that hes not at least an average O coordinator, but that I can't find a reason to believe that his success warrants his own effect or that SF will show more than a moderate improvement in offense.

 

[butcher boy]

I've got a bad feeling that the Martz Effect is going to be cancelled out by the Nolan Effect. We're already seeing it with Nolan's bloated ego getting in the way of the team having a clear starting QB.

That said, I think Gore is going to have an incredible year. He was the number 8 RB last year despite the 49ers having Chunk from The Goonies calling their plays.

If you think Martz is going to be as pass happy as he was in Detroit and ignore the fact that Gore is the centerpiece of the offense, I've got a bridge to sell you.

 

[baconisgood]

Trent Green, Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger...he even made Fitzpatrick look decent

Trent Green played 8 games with Martz, he went to two pro bowls as a KC QB and was certainly above average. Bulger's best season came in his first year without Martz, and Warner has shown his talent when healthy with ARI last year. Fitzpatrick stunk in 4 games with Martz.

 

[CalBear]

SF's offense will suck, no question. But I think it's likely that they will have more passing attempts in 2008 than they did in 2007. In 2007 they had just 513 passes (#22 in the league) despite being behind most of the time. It's very likely that that number will be 550+ in 2008. So they'll still suck, but there will definitely be more receptions, more passing yardage and probably more passing TDs, just due to volume.

 

[FavreCo]

You make an articulate point. I'm not a big Martz fan myself. This will be the telling year. If he turns water into wine with Alex Smith (or as Adam Shefter is reporting this morning J.T. O'Sullivan?) and Frank Gore turns in a top 7 fantasy performance then there's really NO doubting the Martz effect.

If you look back to last year. There was a game where Gore caught 11 passes and totaled 200+ yards and 2 TD's. The week before that game, they brought in a guy to help the rookie , in-over-his-head, OC develop a game plan. There was no doubt that guy realized Gore should be given a ton of touches. The wine is there. All Martz has to do is drink it. It won't mean he is a genius if Gore goes off this year. He should have produced more last year except the coaching staff was horrific on offense.

 

[Chachi]

I don't think Martz means #### in S.F. with the QB problems they have. The defense will continue to improve, but that just means more low-scoring games from an already low-scoring team.

I agree with this. The 49ers, well Nolan needs to pull his head out from between his upper legs and give Alex Smith the job and see if he is ever going to amount to anything, if not then next year you go out and either draft a QB or make a move for a QB, maybe Brady Quinn or someone else who isn't as old as dirt.The problem I have with Nolan/49ers is they have not given Smith a good chance to do well. They draft a shotgun QB out of college and put him in the pros, right there that is adjustment. Then they change schemes and O-Coords every year. The analogy I would use for what they did to Smith is they put a kid who is behind in math to begin with in an Algebra class without taking Pre-Algebra first. Then every three weeks they change the teacher who has a different way of explaining things and uses different language to get his points across. Pretty weak in my opinion.I'm not saying Smith is going to be good at all, I'm just saying they have basically set him up to fail.

 

[BigJim®]

As far as offensive genius goes, Mike Martz = Brian Billick IMHO. Poster child of right place/right time.

 

[cjack]

There was a two part article on the Martz effect last week for subscribers and I felt it was of very low value. I won't discuss protected content but I would like to list my reasons for thinking the Martz effect on the 49ers this year will be overblown, and would like to hear counterpoints since I know I am biased against Martz and love hating him.Exhibit 1 is his time as Rams offensive coordinator. When he signed up in 1999 the Rams had a poor offense, they went on to be huge the next few years. How much of this can we attribute to Mike Martz though? There were massive personal changes to the Rams that year. a. Marshall Faulk. 26 year old, future Hall of Fame RB. Thats a hell of an addition, especially considering the Rams leading rusher in 1998 was Robert Holcombe with 98 carries for 230 yards (or june henley with 88 attempts for 313 yards). Their situation in 1997 was better, but not that much.b. Tory Holt's rookie year, 788 yards + 6tds. Hes been to two pro bowls without Martz. An upgrade over Amp Lee and Ricky Proehl (leading receivers in 1998) for sure.c. Return of Issac Bruce. Bruce played in 5 games in 1998 and 16 in 1999. Also a big upgrade over the top receivers in 1998.d. Kurt Warner. Sure he was an amazing story, but since leaving the Rams he has shown that when healthy he is an NFL talent. The 1998 version? Tony Banks and his career 54.2% completion percentage with a few games of Steve Bono and his career 54.9% thrown in. 4 upgrades at skill positions with talent on the offensive line already in place. How much credit are we going to give Martz's system and how much for those upgrades? Exhibit 2 2006 Detroit had another bad offense that Martz 'boosted'. addtions?a. Kitna > Harrington/Garcia. Kitna is no world beater, but has show that he is certainly better that Harrington in his career, and Garcia was clearly bad when in a system that didn't suit him (detroit/cleveland) b. Roy Williams plays 16 games instead of 13 the year before.c. Mike Furrey is brought in as a number 2 receiver. He hasn't had much of a career (well none really) other than his time in Detroit, but he was replacing scotty vines he spent two years in the league and totalled 43 catches. Kevin Jones, Artose Pinner and Marcus Pollard combine for 87 catches in 2005 (46 Pollard, 21 Pinner, 20 Jones), and Jones, Pollard and Daniel Campbell combine for 93 in 2006 (61, 21, 12).From 2006-2007 the Lions addCalvin Johnson who has a solid season, Shaun McDonald who is more effective than hes ever been. They lose 4 games from Roy Williams and 6 starts from Kevin Jones. From these two examples I feel its dubios to claim anything more than a moderate 'martz effect', he takes over poor offenses with crap personal. Better personal and he gets better results. This year he is again taking over crap, since it was the worst offense in the league last year its reasonable to assume an improvement. But hes still looking at the same guys as his QB, and hes got a 36 yr old Bruce and Bryant Johnson as his upgrades.

Most of your post seems rational, but you easily dismiss some of the best evidence of Martz's "success" in Detroit. You mention that Furrey hasn't had much of a career other than his time in Detroit, and you mention that Shaun McDonald was more effective than he's even been, but you don't attribute any of that to Martz. I'm not saying Martz is a world beater either, but I think you have to give him some credit for the emergence of Furrey and McDonald as WRs.Now, the way I would translate that to San Fran is to say he'll largely underuse his top 2 WRs, as he did with Williams and CJ, but he'll get more production than expected out of the 3 and 4 WRs. So, if you're looking for value in San Fran, don't go after Bruce and Bryant Johnson, go after Battle and Morgan/Hill.Early in his St. Louis days, Bruce and Holt were studs in his system, but later in his tenure, the 3rd and 4th receivers seem to eat into their numbers. I think defensive coordinators have adjusted and learned how to take away or at least control the first couple options in his offense, but the 3rd and 4th options perform better than expected.I do think he'll use Gore to his full potential. He hasn't had a back of Gore's talent since Faulk and we know how he used Faulk. Gore's rushing attempts are almost sure to decline, but he should more than make up for it with his receptions. Although, as much as I like Gore, the crapfest at QB has me worried. If O'Sullivan wasn't successful in Detroit, how is he going to be successful in San Fran with only Gore, and probably Vernon Davis as better talents than what he had at those respective positions in Detroit. Alex Smith and Hill haven't emerged either. I'll be paying attention to the QB battle throughout the pre-season, unfortunately I draft next Friday.

 

[Brock Middlebrook]

I think Martz deserves some credit for the personnel.

When Trent Green got hurt, Vermeil wanted to bring in Jeff Hostetler, but Martz told him to give this Warner kid a shot.

Isaac Bruce had chronic hamstring issues and Vermeil worked his players hard in every preseason prior to '99. Lightening Bruce's workload did wonders.

I think a key in a Martz offense is getting rid of the ball quickly - something that Warner excelled at.

 

[butcher boy]

You make an articulate point. I'm not a big Martz fan myself. This will be the telling year. If he turns water into wine with Alex Smith (or as Adam Shefter is reporting this morning J.T. O'Sullivan?) and Frank Gore turns in a top 7 fantasy performance then there's really NO doubting the Martz effect.

If you look back to last year. There was a game where Gore caught 11 passes and totaled 200+ yards and 2 TD's. The week before that game, they brought in a guy to help the rookie , in-over-his-head, OC develop a game plan. There was no doubt that guy realized Gore should be given a ton of touches. The wine is there. All Martz has to do is drink it. It won't mean he is a genius if Gore goes off this year. He should have produced more last year except the coaching staff was horrific on offense.

Yep, I dont think people realize how bad and predictable an OC the Niners had last year and the HUGE effect it had on the offense. It got so bad that a friend and I started predicted the playcalling while watching games and it was scary how often we called what the exact play was going to be. People were talking about flying planes over the stadium during a game that had a sign behind it saying "Fire Nolan" all because of his blind loyalty to Hostler.As soon as they brought in Tollner to bail out Jim Hostler, the offense became less predictable, and guys like Gore and Shaun Hill started to look good. Hostler should've been canned much earlier in the season, but Nolan's ego wouldn't allow that to happen.

 

[Unlucky]

If you think Martz is going to be as pass happy as he was in Detroit and ignore the fact that Gore is the centerpiece of the offense, I've got a bridge to sell you.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

If you think Martz is going to be as pass happy as he was in Detroit and ignore the fact that Gore is the centerpiece of the offense, I've got a bridge to sell you.

Gore might be the center piece, but his rushing numbers will still be underwhleming this season

 

[David Yudkin]

Trent Green, Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger...he even made Fitzpatrick look decent

Trent Green played 8 games with Martz, he went to two pro bowls as a KC QB and was certainly above average. Bulger's best season came in his first year without Martz, and Warner has shown his talent when healthy with ARI last year. Fitzpatrick stunk in 4 games with Martz.

I suggest you revisit the Green/Martz history to see how this played out. I'll save you the trouble of researching it, though.Green was drafted as the 222nd player overall by the San Diego Chargers in 1993 and spent a year as a backup but saw no playing time. He was released the following year and played 1 season with the British Columbia Lions in the Canadian Football League. He returned to the NFL in 1995 as a third string QB in Washington and threw only one pass in those three seasons as a backup.Martz came to the Redskins in 1998 as the QB coach. Gus Frerotte suffered a minor shoulder injury in the opening week, but Green came into the game in the 3rd quarter and threw for 208 yards and 2 TD passes. Martz convinced head coach Norv Turner to bench three year starter Frerotte for no name, no experience Trent Green. Green ended up with 3,441 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions that year and later followed Martz to St. Louis.

 

[Grahamburn]

You make an articulate point. I'm not a big Martz fan myself. This will be the telling year. If he turns water into wine with Alex Smith (or as Adam Shefter is reporting this morning J.T. O'Sullivan?) and Frank Gore turns in a top 7 fantasy performance then there's really NO doubting the Martz effect.

If you look back to last year. There was a game where Gore caught 11 passes and totaled 200+ yards and 2 TD's. The week before that game, they brought in a guy to help the rookie , in-over-his-head, OC develop a game plan. There was no doubt that guy realized Gore should be given a ton of touches. The wine is there. All Martz has to do is drink it. It won't mean he is a genius if Gore goes off this year. He should have produced more last year except the coaching staff was horrific on offense.

When I think about the "Martz effect" I really only focus on one player. Frank Gore. The rest of the 49ers will likely be close to worthless with Martz as the coordinator. I can't help but think back to 06 in Detroit. If you owned Kevin Jones that season and watched the Lions play you could see how Martz uses his RB's. He does get pass happy, but many of those targets end up in the hands of the running back. Look at the game logs for Kevin Jones that season and you will see how Martz will likely use Gore. Kevin Jones was on pace for 1600-1800 total yards, 80 catches, and 12-14 TD's before being injured. How much more talented is Frank Gore compared to Kevin Jones?I understand that the 49er offensive line may be bad, but was Detroit's much better in 06? The poor pass protection in Detroit simply led to more catches for Kevin Jones. I expect the same for Frank Gore. Is Jon Kitna that much better than whoever will be starting at QB? Not too much difference in the receiver talent either. Roy williams of course, but he didn't exactly light the world on fire that year either. Gore is going to get the ball a ton this season and I'm starting to think about drafting him 4th overall in my league with the issues surrounding Steven Jackson.Frank Gore is in for a big season.

 

[FavreCo]

You make an articulate point. I'm not a big Martz fan myself. This will be the telling year. If he turns water into wine with Alex Smith (or as Adam Shefter is reporting this morning J.T. O'Sullivan?) and Frank Gore turns in a top 7 fantasy performance then there's really NO doubting the Martz effect.

If you look back to last year. There was a game where Gore caught 11 passes and totaled 200+ yards and 2 TD's. The week before that game, they brought in a guy to help the rookie , in-over-his-head, OC develop a game plan. There was no doubt that guy realized Gore should be given a ton of touches. The wine is there. All Martz has to do is drink it. It won't mean he is a genius if Gore goes off this year. He should have produced more last year except the coaching staff was horrific on offense.

Yep, I dont think people realize how bad and predictable an OC the Niners had last year and the HUGE effect it had on the offense. It got so bad that a friend and I started predicted the playcalling while watching games and it was scary how often we called what the exact play was going to be. People were talking about flying planes over the stadium during a game that had a sign behind it saying "Fire Nolan" all because of his blind loyalty to Hostler.As soon as they brought in Tollner to bail out Jim Hostler, the offense became less predictable, and guys like Gore and Shaun Hill started to look good.

Hostler should've been canned much earlier in the season, but Nolan's ego wouldn't allow that to happen.

Yeah, that's who it was. Couldn't remember the names but I sure remember the game. I was totally pumped that this guy came back to show Hostler how to run an offense around Gore. They were brutally predictable.

 

[CalBear]

You make an articulate point. I'm not a big Martz fan myself. This will be the telling year. If he turns water into wine with Alex Smith (or as Adam Shefter is reporting this morning J.T. O'Sullivan?) and Frank Gore turns in a top 7 fantasy performance then there's really NO doubting the Martz effect.

If you look back to last year. There was a game where Gore caught 11 passes and totaled 200+ yards and 2 TD's. The week before that game, they brought in a guy to help the rookie , in-over-his-head, OC develop a game plan.

You're cherry-picking; in the 5 games after that, Gore scored just one TD and had just one 100-yard rushing game.

 

[baconisgood]

Trent Green, Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger...he even made Fitzpatrick look decent

Trent Green played 8 games with Martz, he went to two pro bowls as a KC QB and was certainly above average. Bulger's best season came in his first year without Martz, and Warner has shown his talent when healthy with ARI last year. Fitzpatrick stunk in 4 games with Martz.

I suggest you revisit the Green/Martz history to see how this played out. I'll save you the trouble of researching it, though.Green was drafted as the 222nd player overall by the San Diego Chargers in 1993 and spent a year as a backup but saw no playing time. He was released the following year and played 1 season with the British Columbia Lions in the Canadian Football League. He returned to the NFL in 1995 as a third string QB in Washington and threw only one pass in those three seasons as a backup.Martz came to the Redskins in 1998 as the QB coach. Gus Frerotte suffered a minor shoulder injury in the opening week, but Green came into the game in the 3rd quarter and threw for 208 yards and 2 TD passes. Martz convinced head coach Norv Turner to bench three year starter Frerotte for no name, no experience Trent Green. Green ended up with 3,441 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions that year and later followed Martz to St. Louis.

Thank you for the correction, and thanks to everyone in this thread. It sounds like I have definitely been underestimating Martz's eye for talent (especially at the QB position) and will take that into account to some extent. I also appreciate the info on the situation last year in SF- even if Martz is an average o coordinator that should be a bug step up if the previous guard was as bad as it sounds (which shouldn't surprise since they s u c k e d sucked last year).

 

[ookook]

I think Martz' offense may have liabilities in the NFL, but his impact on the fantasy value of QBs seems clear to me.

Whoever starts in SF at QB will put up much better fantasy numbers than Smith did last year.

 

[zed2283]

You make an articulate point. I'm not a big Martz fan myself. This will be the telling year. If he turns water into wine with Alex Smith (or as Adam Shefter is reporting this morning J.T. O'Sullivan?) and Frank Gore turns in a top 7 fantasy performance then there's really NO doubting the Martz effect.

If you look back to last year. There was a game where Gore caught 11 passes and totaled 200+ yards and 2 TD's. The week before that game, they brought in a guy to help the rookie , in-over-his-head, OC develop a game plan. There was no doubt that guy realized Gore should be given a ton of touches. The wine is there. All Martz has to do is drink it. It won't mean he is a genius if Gore goes off this year. He should have produced more last year except the coaching staff was horrific on offense.

Yep, I dont think people realize how bad and predictable an OC the Niners had last year and the HUGE effect it had on the offense. It got so bad that a friend and I started predicted the playcalling while watching games and it was scary how often we called what the exact play was going to be. People were talking about flying planes over the stadium during a game that had a sign behind it saying "Fire Nolan" all because of his blind loyalty to Hostler.As soon as they brought in Tollner to bail out Jim Hostler, the offense became less predictable, and guys like Gore and Shaun Hill started to look good. Hostler should've been canned much earlier in the season, but Nolan's ego wouldn't allow that to happen.

I also agree. The play calling was horrendous until they brought in help.

 

[hooptd]

I don't think Martz means #### in S.F. with the QB problems they have. The defense will continue to improve, but that just means more low-scoring games from an already low-scoring team.

I agree with this. The 49ers, well Nolan needs to pull his head out from between his upper legs and give Alex Smith the job and see if he is ever going to amount to anything, if not then next year you go out and either draft a QB or make a move for a QB, maybe Brady Quinn or someone else who isn't as old as dirt.The problem I have with Nolan/49ers is they have not given Smith a good chance to do well. They draft a shotgun QB out of college and put him in the pros, right there that is adjustment. Then they change schemes and O-Coords every year. The analogy I would use for what they did to Smith is they put a kid who is behind in math to begin with in an Algebra class without taking Pre-Algebra first. Then every three weeks they change the teacher who has a different way of explaining things and uses different language to get his points across. Pretty weak in my opinion.I'm not saying Smith is going to be good at all, I'm just saying they have basically set him up to fail.

I agree with this 100%. I can't believe it isn't talked about more. Smith was already young when he came into the league, and then he was hurt last year. I don't think he's been given a decent chance to show what he can do. I may be mistaken, but I seem to remember Nolan and Smith having words last season. I wonder if personal feelings are clouding Nolan's judgment when it comes to Smith.

 

[David Yudkin]

I went over this in other threads, but to recap:

Smith entered the league at 21. Those saying he has been a bust need to review how young QBs have fared in the in the past.

Since 1960

21 year old QB with 200 fantasy points (1 of 8 or 12.5%)

Fran Tarkenton 216

At 22 (8 of 119 or 6.7%)

Michael Vick 339

Drew Bledsoe 303

Peyton Manning 267

Fran Tarkenton 238

Alex Smith 219

Dan Marino 215

Ben Roethlisberger 214

Tim Couch 205

At 23 (19 out of 282 or 6.7%)

Dan Marino 460

Daunte Culpepper 419

Peyton Manning 326

Shaun King 268

Bernie Kosar 260

Steve Grogan 257

Brett Favre 251

Vince Young 241

Drew Brees 236

Archie Manning 234

Norm Snead 231

Joe Namath 226

Bob Griese 226

Rick Mirer 220

Drew Bledsoe 211

Ben Roethlisberger 211

David Woodley 209

Jim Hart 207

Byron Leftwich 202

As you can see, not many players have succeeded at such an early age, so I would not be ready to write Smith off just yet.

 

[rawdog]

For everyone on this post who believes Gore will have a "monster year", any worries that the QB and passing game will be so lousy that Gore will see very few touches inside the 5?

I have the 9 pick in my league– and am choosing between the boom-or-bust of Gore and the steadiness of Portis. I would love to feel good about choosing Gore.

 

[moderated]

The one thing i can guarantee is that SF will have at least 20-25% more passing attempts then they had last season.

So there will be a Martz affect on the passing numbers, it's basically a fact.

 

[FavreCo]

You make an articulate point. I'm not a big Martz fan myself. This will be the telling year. If he turns water into wine with Alex Smith (or as Adam Shefter is reporting this morning J.T. O'Sullivan?) and Frank Gore turns in a top 7 fantasy performance then there's really NO doubting the Martz effect.

If you look back to last year. There was a game where Gore caught 11 passes and totaled 200+ yards and 2 TD's. The week before that game, they brought in a guy to help the rookie , in-over-his-head, OC develop a game plan.

You're cherry-picking; in the 5 games after that, Gore scored just one TD and had just one 100-yard rushing game.

Call it what you want but the fact was, they brought this guy in, he changed the game plan and Gore went off.

 

[CalBear]

As you can see, not many players have succeeded at such an early age, so I would not be ready to write Smith off just yet.

Did those other players look like crap warmed over?

 

[CalBear]

You're cherry-picking; in the 5 games after that, Gore scored just one TD and had just one 100-yard rushing game.

Call it what you want but the fact was, they brought this guy in, he changed the game plan and Gore went off.

That might have had something to do with playing against the Arizona Cardinals.

 

[David Yudkin]

As you can see, not many players have succeeded at such an early age, so I would not be ready to write Smith off just yet.

Did those other players look like crap warmed over?

Did other coaches opt to throw a very young QB to the wolves on a very poor team that has had a revolving door at head coach and offensive coordinator?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

The one thing i can guarantee is that SF will have at least 20-25% more passing attempts then they had last season.So there will be a Martz affect on the passing numbers, it's basically a fact.

Martz is going to do whatever he wants. And that to me is proven even more by the fact that JT O'S is gonna be the starter

 

[CalBear]

As you can see, not many players have succeeded at such an early age, so I would not be ready to write Smith off just yet.

Did those other players look like crap warmed over?

Did other coaches opt to throw a very young QB to the wolves on a very poor team that has had a revolving door at head coach and offensive coordinator?

Some of them. Did those QBs wind up being successful later?

 

[themanbeast9]

I think their WR's will have a big season but Frank Gore's carries will definitly go down. I believe that Mike Martz will find a QB in that system and lead the 49ers to a sucsessful 8-8 season.

 

[Tanner9919]

I think Frank Gore is going to have an absolute monster year.

not a chance..the guy has loads of talent, but his supporting cast is in disarray...old run-down WR's like I. Bruce , and they still haven't named a QB from the 3-headed monster they have..

the old addage in fantasy football is that RB's on bad teams are, for the most part, worthless ( Barry Sanders notwithstanding)...the Niners will probably finish dead last in time of possession and total number of offensive possessions..so how, then,will Gore get his chances if his team keeps going 3-n-out on nearly every possession?

I hear what you're saying, Gore would be fantastic with a better supporting cast, but this team as it is currently configured, is a disaster..

Martz is a loon

 

[butcher boy]

I don't think Martz means #### in S.F. with the QB problems they have. The defense will continue to improve, but that just means more low-scoring games from an already low-scoring team.

I agree with this. The 49ers, well Nolan needs to pull his head out from between his upper legs and give Alex Smith the job and see if he is ever going to amount to anything, if not then next year you go out and either draft a QB or make a move for a QB, maybe Brady Quinn or someone else who isn't as old as dirt.The problem I have with Nolan/49ers is they have not given Smith a good chance to do well. They draft a shotgun QB out of college and put him in the pros, right there that is adjustment. Then they change schemes and O-Coords every year. The analogy I would use for what they did to Smith is they put a kid who is behind in math to begin with in an Algebra class without taking Pre-Algebra first. Then every three weeks they change the teacher who has a different way of explaining things and uses different language to get his points across. Pretty weak in my opinion.I'm not saying Smith is going to be good at all, I'm just saying they have basically set him up to fail.

I agree with this 100%. I can't believe it isn't talked about more. Smith was already young when he came into the league, and then he was hurt last year. I don't think he's been given a decent chance to show what he can do. I may be mistaken, but I seem to remember Nolan and Smith having words last season. I wonder if personal feelings are clouding Nolan's judgment when it comes to Smith.

Correct. Nolan and Smith do not have a healthy QB/coach relationship at all. This is a brief rundown of the Alex Smith story for those who don't know the history. The title is "How to Fail at Developing a Young Quarterback" by Mike Nolan.2005Smith's rookie year. He's a 21 year old shotgun spread QB thrown immediately into a dramatically different offensive system, and not surprisingly he puts up horrible numbers. There have been reports that Smith got almost no training on his mechanics and technique during this time.2006Norv Turner arrives and spends a lot of time with Smith in the offseason. The results of this are clear as Smith improves on his rookie year's numbers tremendously.2007This is where it gets interesting. A lot of people were very optimistic about the 49ers' chances in 2007 primarily because of the explosiveness of Frank Gore and the improvements Smith had been showing the previous year. Keep in mind, this is Alex Smith's 3rd offensive coordinator in 3 years. The 49ers went 2-0 to start the season, including an impressive two minute drive led by Smith to come back and beat Arizona. It looked like they were going to be a decent team. Then Smith gets hurt on September 30 and it went downhill from there. Nolan, for whatever reason, said repeatedly to the media that Smith's injury was not serious. Smith, however, said the opposite. He said that he still felt pain and that it was affecting his throwing. Nolan decides to throw Smith back into the lineup anyhow, 3 weeks after the injury and surprise surprise, Smith plays horribly. So, who was right? It turns out that Smith WAS hurt more seriously than Nolan had insisted, and that he did require season ending surgery. I honestly think that Nolan is a stubborn, petty man who still holds a grudge against Smith for coming out to the media last year disagreeing with the assessment of his injury. That's why we're seeing this 3 QB circus at 49ers training camp. So to sum up, the only year Smith was given a decent chance to develop (2006), he responded positively. I'm convinced, however, that as long as Nolan is coach, Smith won't get another opportunity like that again.

 

[butcher boy]

I think Frank Gore is going to have an absolute monster year.

not a chance..the guy has loads of talent, but his supporting cast is in disarray...old run-down WR's like I. Bruce , and they still haven't named a QB from the 3-headed monster they have..

the old addage in fantasy football is that RB's on bad teams are, for the most part, worthless ( Barry Sanders notwithstanding)...the Niners will probably finish dead last in time of possession and total number of offensive possessions..so how, then,will Gore get his chances if his team keeps going 3-n-out on nearly every possession?

I hear what you're saying, Gore would be fantastic with a better supporting cast, but this team as it is currently configured, is a disaster.. :(

Martz is a loon

How is the situation of the 49ers offense as you describe it any worse than last year, where Gore still ended up the 8th ranked fantasy RB?

 

[Gr00vus]

Behind that line in Martz's offense the 48ers may set an all time record for number of QBs to take a regular season snap. Those guys are going to get absolutely annihilated.

Gore is the only offensive player on the team I'd want to have on my roster unless the price was ridiculously cheap for Davis. I think people expecting big things out of the receivers just because Martz is in town are going to be sad come year's end.