The myth that wr's are deep this year (1 Viewer)

[ppierce]

on the surface wr's look deep. however when you really break it down, i am not a believer in a ton of the top wr's this year. i think there is a lot better value in some of the middle round guys. i think megatron is worth a first round pick and i think that julio jones is worth a 2nd round pick. but i think thats it as far as the sure things go.

Fitz- Crappy qb, crappy o-line, crappy team. besides for 1 flukey broken down play last week, he would of had a donut

Jennings- concussions are scary, way too many mouths to feed in GB

Andre Johnson - NEVER healthy already starting the year with a gimpy groin. never really has ammassed double digit td's, running offense

AJ Green- may require 2nd round pick but slumped at end of last year, Dalton kinda sucks, plays 3 of the best passing defenses in league TWICE. thats 6 games vs top d's.

Roddy White- I actually do like Roddy and would consider him at end of 2 or beginning of 3.

If you want one of those guys you'll likely have to spend a 2nd rounder on them and i'm not in love with those options. I'd much rather wait, load up on te, qb and rb's and start grabbing guys like Percy Harvin, Antonio Brown, Lloyd, Decker and Torrey Smith later on.

Thoughts?

 

[mr roboto]

I agree with the premise. Fitz, A Johnson, White make me nervous. Torrey Smith, ABrown etc could easily outscore those guys.

I went RB RB ( Rice at 3 then F Jackson at 22) then went AJ Green, Harvin and Torrey Smith. Was really pleased with the WR in 3-5 and once I did that a big WR run set in.

 

[Wu-banger]

I don't think deep is the correct word people are using....more like parity .

I agree after Megatron there are questions with most top tier WR's ..... So if you don't get Calvin it could be smart to wait to Rd 3 or 4 to grab your first WR.

 

[LittlePhatty]

i think there is a lot better value in some of the middle round guys.

That's my definition of "deep".

 

[ppierce]

i think there is a lot better value in some of the middle round guys.

That's my definition of "deep".

not really. on paper it is deep however there are a lot of DND's in those early rounds making the pool a lot smaller.

 

[fightingillini]

It's actually not a myth. I agree with OP.

The WR pool is as deep as I have ever seen. In my next draft (1/2 PPR for WRs), after Megatron, my projections show only 24 points separate my #2WR Fitzgerald to my #12WR Cruz. From my #13WR Welker to my #32WR (Meachem), the difference is only 35 points, or about 2 points a game. So IMO, the next 11 WRs after Megatron are similar as is the next 20WR starting with Welker. So why take a WR in Round 2 this year when you can get a similar guy in Round 3? And why take a WR like Welker in a 1/2 PPR leage when you get get a guy like Antonio Brown or Torrey Smith 2-3 rounds later.

Even in start 3 WR leagues, I would still recommend loading up on RBs and either an elite QB or elite TE. In one 12 team league, I took Brady, Charles, Bradshaw, and Vernon Davis with 4 of my 1st 5 picks. My first two WRs are Colston and Torrey Smith, not great but will suffice given that I have an elite QB, two solid RBs and a good TE.

 

[lbouchard]

Unless I get Megatron in round 1, I refuse to take a WR in the first 3 rounds.

 

[Modog814]

i think there is a lot better value in some of the middle round guys.

That's my definition of "deep".

not really. on paper it is deep however there are a lot of DND's in those early rounds making the pool a lot smaller.

This is the whole idea though. The guys in the earlier round may be more "talented" but their situation (whether injury, team, qb whatever) makes the gap between them and the middle round WR's very small. So when most people say the wr pool is deep, what they are really saying is to let other teams draft Fitz, Johnson, Green, ect. in the 2nd, while you grab QB/RB/TE there.

 

[ppierce]

i think there is a lot better value in some of the middle round guys.

That's my definition of "deep".

not really. on paper it is deep however there are a lot of DND's in those early rounds making the pool a lot smaller.

This is the whole idea though. The guys in the earlier round may be more "talented" but their situation (whether injury, team, qb whatever) makes the gap between them and the middle round WR's very small. So when most people say the wr pool is deep, what they are really saying is to let other teams draft Fitz, Johnson, Green, ect. in the 2nd, while you grab QB/RB/TE there.

Yes exactly. Maybe my wording is off but you get the point. I'm just saying that if there are 15 or so strong wr's this year, i'm crossing off about 5 of the top ones b/c i think they will suffer due to their circumstances.

 

[solorca]

I agree that the high level WR's are risky, and I probably will avoid them. In a two person keeper, I went WR/WR/WR in rounds 2-4 (because of the keepers it would push things down a little) and took...

Brandon Marshall

Percy Harvin

Stevie Johnson

 

[fightingillini]

i think there is a lot better value in some of the middle round guys.

That's my definition of "deep".

not really. on paper it is deep however there are a lot of DND's in those early rounds making the pool a lot smaller.

Then your strategy should be to load up on RBs, elite QB, elite TE and draft WRs later.....if you can't secure Megatron

 

[fightingillini]

i think there is a lot better value in some of the middle round guys.

That's my definition of "deep".

not really. on paper it is deep however there are a lot of DND's in those early rounds making the pool a lot smaller.

This is the whole idea though. The guys in the earlier round may be more "talented" but their situation (whether injury, team, qb whatever) makes the gap between them and the middle round WR's very small. So when most people say the wr pool is deep, what they are really saying is to let other teams draft Fitz, Johnson, Green, ect. in the 2nd, while you grab QB/RB/TE there.

Yes exactly. Maybe my wording is off but you get the point. I'm just saying that if there are 15 or so strong wr's this year, i'm crossing off about 5 of the top ones b/c i think they will suffer due to their circumstances.

I wouldn't necessarily say they will suffer.....it's just the circumstances will not allow them to perform at a level that's worth a 2nd round draft pick.....since you can get essentially the same guy in Round 3 or even Round 4.

 

[JoePlumber]

I went Clavin, Andre & AJ with my 1st 3 picks in the FBG FPC last night

 

[Grahamburn]

The depth at WR is perceived in my opinion.

Not all of those guys are going to put up 1,100 and 9. Several of them are going to end up at 900 and 6 if not worse, which makes the WRs like Fitzgerald and Andre even more valuable. They are known commodities, and their production can be counted on.

There were quite a few "I'm passing on Fitzgerald because I can find his production later on" comments last season. The reality is you can't.

 

[Shutout]

i think there is a lot better value in some of the middle round guys.

That's my definition of "deep".

not really. on paper it is deep however there are a lot of DND's in those early rounds making the pool a lot smaller.

This is the whole idea though. The guys in the earlier round may be more "talented" but their situation (whether injury, team, qb whatever) makes the gap between them and the middle round WR's very small. So when most people say the wr pool is deep, what they are really saying is to let other teams draft Fitz, Johnson, Green, ect. in the 2nd, while you grab QB/RB/TE there.

Yes.I really don't see it being any different than what it normally is. There is always a guy or 3 that everyone puts heads and shoulders above the rest. In the past few years, its been Calvin, Nicks, Fitz, Aj, and Roddy, primarily. Then there have been the super productive guys that are generally under valued like Wayne, Jennings, Welker, and a few others. So, overall, you still have about 10 solid "top 10" guys and then a very good, comparable group that allows us to have 2-3 good WRs in even the larger leagues.So, overall, I think it IS a deep group. I think where people might be getting sideways with the idea is they perceive such a large gap with Calvin and maybe another guy or two and everyone else, that it misleads them. But we need to remember; today's perception of Calvin was 2 season's ago perception of Nicks. And it was 2 season's ago REALITY of Fitz and AJ. Things change fast in the NFL. Overall, I think people are generally over scrutinizing some of the guys like Fitz and AJ and Jennings and a few others. Its the nature. The new shiny toy gets the looks.

 

[joffer]

I went Clavin, Andre & AJ with my 1st 3 picks in the FBG FPC last night

Clavin's overrated. Norm is where the value is

 

[pollardsvision]

i think there is a lot better value in some of the middle round guys.

That's my definition of "deep".

Yeah, I think the title is misleading. It probably should've been "I don't trust the top guys this year, outside of Calvin". The OP seems to agree with the prevailing opiniion that this will be a year in which a new elite WR class overtakes the old. Personally, I think this is a reason Fitz is actually quite properly valued by most and undervalued by many here at FBGs.

Many of the old guys are hard to trust and there are a lot of young, exciting WRs on the way up. Problem is, there's risk in investing heavily in young guys without the track record.

Undoubtedly, many of these new WR darlings will repeat their huge year or take the next step, but some won't and we don't really know who.

But we know ol' Fitz will be in the mix. Some want to doubt it, but they shouldn't.

He just pulled in 1400 yards (for the 4th freaking time) with the same crap QBs that worry everybody so much this year. His floor is somewhere in the neighborhood of the ceiling for a lot of these young bucks.

You should have to pay for that type of consistency.

I agree though, that if you see better value elsewhere early on and miss on a true stud WR, you may as well wait a little bit. I just think Fitz is one of those few worth spending top dollar on. I'd say there are only 3 of those guys (CJ, Fitz, Roddy).

 

[FF Ninja]

The depth at WR is perceived in my opinion.

Not all of those guys are going to put up 1,100 and 9. Several of them are going to end up at 900 and 6 if not worse, which makes the WRs like Fitzgerald and Andre even more valuable. They are known commodities, and their production can be counted on.

There were quite a few "I'm passing on Fitzgerald because I can find his production later on" comments last season. The reality is you can't.

This guy hit it on the head. But it certainly feels like we're going to find some top 10 guys in the WR15-25 range with the likes of Harvin, Lloyd, Antonio Brown, Decker, either/both of the Dallas WRs... can't draft them all, but I'd be down to trade Fitz (WR2) for Lloyd and Brown (WR19 & WR25). You're probably going to hit on one of them and the other provides depth IF you don't hit on both.

 

[FF Ninja]

I should add that I wouldn't trade AJ for those two. AJ had back to back 1500+ yard seasons. If he's healthy, he's good for 95 yards a game and 9.8 TD/16 games with Schaub.

 

[MAC_32]

This has been my strategy all along, different method depeing on the draft as I have a weird 6 team redraft, a traditional redraft, keeper in which you lose the round you drafted them prior year minus 3, and a salary cap keeper auction but this is my WR corps in these leagues

6 teamer - Marshall/Nicks/Dez/Decker/Garcon/Denarius/Cobb (start 5-7)

Keeper (kept Julio and Brown cheap) - Julio/Green/Decker/A Brown/Cobb (start 2-3)

Redraft - Julio/Harvin/Decker/Other Steve Smith/Collie (pre concussion #4)/Simpson (start 3)

(Auction - kept Green cheap) - Green/Welker/Dez/Decker/Other Steve Smith/Collie (damn concussion)/Cobb/Wright (start 3-4)

 

[David Yudkin]

which makes the WRs like Fitzgerald and Andre even more valuable. They are known commodities, and their production can be counted on. There were quite a few "I'm passing on Fitzgerald because I can find his production later on" comments last season. The reality is you can't.

Fitz has not been the same without Warner at QB. I don't see how people miss out on that. His receptions and TDs have gone down. Last year, his YPR shot way up (by 5 full yards). He's usually the 2nd or 3rd WR off the board . . . and I don't see him as the #2 WR. Over the past 2 seasons, he's ranked 14th in fantasy ppg.Andre is valuable . . . when he plays. He missed some time in 2010 and a lot of time in 2011. Last year, on a per game basis, his numbers were nowhere near what they were a few years ago. Sure, if he is healthy he is worth an early pick, but if he is at a point where he can't be relied on to play each week and/or his numbers start to slide, he may not be in the "production that can be relied on" group.

 

[Concept Coop]

i think there is a lot better value in some of the middle round guys.

That's my definition of "deep".

I have to agree here.

 

[LHUCKS]

value city in rounds 4-8

 

[Grahamburn]

which makes the WRs like Fitzgerald and Andre even more valuable. They are known commodities, and their production can be counted on. There were quite a few "I'm passing on Fitzgerald because I can find his production later on" comments last season. The reality is you can't.

Fitz has not been the same without Warner at QB. I don't see how people miss out on that. His receptions and TDs have gone down. Last year, his YPR shot way up (by 5 full yards). He's usually the 2nd or 3rd WR off the board . . . and I don't see him as the #2 WR. Over the past 2 seasons, he's ranked 14th in fantasy ppg.Andre is valuable . . . when he plays. He missed some time in 2010 and a lot of time in 2011. Last year, on a per game basis, his numbers were nowhere near what they were a few years ago. Sure, if he is healthy he is worth an early pick, but if he is at a point where he can't be relied on to play each week and/or his numbers start to slide, he may not be in the "production that can be relied on" group.

Not many players would be the same going from Kurt Warner to Max Hall or Derek Anderson. I don't think that's an indictment of Fitzgerald. The reality is Fitzgerald just had a 1,411 yard 8 TD season and a top 5 WR finish with the exact supporting cast he has in 2012. What has changed in his situation leading people to believe his production will suffer? Andre's ppg numbers last season were on par with his historical numbers if you don't include the game where he injured his hamstring and the first couple games where he came back on a snap count. The first 3 games with Schaub and two playoff games were vintage Andre. Taking on injury risk is a matter of preference. Drafters who hedge that risk won't take him. Drafters who understand what he can do with Schaub if he's healthy will take him. My thought process on Andre is this: "What if he does play all 16?"

 

[David Yudkin]

which makes the WRs like Fitzgerald and Andre even more valuable. They are known commodities, and their production can be counted on. There were quite a few "I'm passing on Fitzgerald because I can find his production later on" comments last season. The reality is you can't.

Fitz has not been the same without Warner at QB. I don't see how people miss out on that. His receptions and TDs have gone down. Last year, his YPR shot way up (by 5 full yards). He's usually the 2nd or 3rd WR off the board . . . and I don't see him as the #2 WR. Over the past 2 seasons, he's ranked 14th in fantasy ppg.Andre is valuable . . . when he plays. He missed some time in 2010 and a lot of time in 2011. Last year, on a per game basis, his numbers were nowhere near what they were a few years ago. Sure, if he is healthy he is worth an early pick, but if he is at a point where he can't be relied on to play each week and/or his numbers start to slide, he may not be in the "production that can be relied on" group.

Not many players would be the same going from Kurt Warner to Max Hall or Derek Anderson. I don't think that's an indictment of Fitzgerald. The reality is Fitzgerald just had a 1,411 yard 8 TD season and a top 5 WR finish with the exact supporting cast he has in 2012. What has changed in his situation leading people to believe his production will suffer? Andre's ppg numbers last season were on par with his historical numbers if you don't include the game where he injured his hamstring and the first couple games where he came back on a snap count. The first 3 games with Schaub and two playoff games were vintage Andre. Taking on injury risk is a matter of preference. Drafters who hedge that risk won't take him. Drafters who understand what he can do with Schaub if he's healthy will take him. My thought process on Andre is this: "What if he does play all 16?"

While it may not ultimately make that much of a difference, Fitz did poorly with Kolb and well with Skelton. That could be a factor in how well Fitz does this year. Also, if he goes back to his more normal YPR, he could fall to the 1000-1100 range again. Not saying it will happen, but IMO Fitz is really not that much more attractive than a bunch of guys after Megatron.

 

[TheFootballJesus]

on the surface wr's look deep. however when you really break it down, i am not a believer in a ton of the top wr's this year. i think there is a lot better value in some of the middle round guys. i think megatron is worth a first round pick and i think that julio jones is worth a 2nd round pick. but i think thats it as far as the sure things go. Fitz- Crappy qb, crappy o-line, crappy team. besides for 1 flukey broken down play last week, he would of had a donutJennings- concussions are scary, way too many mouths to feed in GBAndre Johnson - NEVER healthy already starting the year with a gimpy groin. never really has ammassed double digit td's, running offenseAJ Green- may require 2nd round pick but slumped at end of last year, Dalton kinda sucks, plays 3 of the best passing defenses in league TWICE. thats 6 games vs top d's.Roddy White- I actually do like Roddy and would consider him at end of 2 or beginning of 3.If you want one of those guys you'll likely have to spend a 2nd rounder on them and i'm not in love with those options. I'd much rather wait, load up on te, qb and rb's and start grabbing guys like Percy Harvin, Antonio Brown, Lloyd, Decker and Torrey Smith later on.Thoughts?

All of the wide receivers you mentioned will be drafted in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. When people say that the wide receiver class is deep, they're referring to the fact that receivers that can reasonably be projected to go for 1000 yards can be found in the 6th and 7th rounds (Maclin, Reggie Wayne, Stevie Johnson).And as far as the wide receivers you mentioned...I'd be okay with drafting Green, Roddy, or Andre Johnson in the early 3rd. The injury issues with Andre are IMO overblown. He's missed more than 3 games in a season just twice in his nine year career... and even though he doesn't catch as many TDs as you'd like from a WR1, on a per game yardage basis he's the best receiver in the history of the league.Fitzgerald's QB situation is crummy but it's been that way ever since Warner retired. I don't like him at his current price, but he's a sure bet to put up WR1 numbers.

 

[SSOG]

While it may not ultimately make that much of a difference, Fitz did poorly with Kolb and well with Skelton. That could be a factor in how well Fitz does this year. Also, if he goes back to his more normal YPR, he could fall to the 1000-1100 range again. Not saying it will happen, but IMO Fitz is really not that much more attractive than a bunch of guys after Megatron.

Fitz didn't do as poorly with Kolb as you think. The TD numbers were bad, but you know how volatile those can be, especially over a half-season sample size. His yardage with Kolb still put him on a 1300+ yard pace.

 

[Shawn]

In 10 man leagues i am pulling AJ Green or roddy white easily in round 3

 

[David Yudkin]

While it may not ultimately make that much of a difference, Fitz did poorly with Kolb and well with Skelton. That could be a factor in how well Fitz does this year. Also, if he goes back to his more normal YPR, he could fall to the 1000-1100 range again. Not saying it will happen, but IMO Fitz is really not that much more attractive than a bunch of guys after Megatron.

Fitz didn't do as poorly with Kolb as you think. The TD numbers were bad, but you know how volatile those can be, especially over a half-season sample size. His yardage with Kolb still put him on a 1300+ yard pace.

IIRC, the difference in Fitz' performance with each QB was 13.9 vs. 9.7 ppg (0 ppr). That's a fair amount. The sample size is so small that it may not make a difference.

 

[Soulfly3]

Truly not trying to be a ##### here... But what kind of league do many of you play in? I hate "bragging" about my league (not really) but there is no way in HELL, guys like Nicks, Marshall, Green etc fall to round 4-6.

It may work for some of you who dont have the same leaguemates for the past decade+, who are all as serious as I am about the game... But I have no shot in hell at some of the "values" you guys cream over to make your points. Even Torrey Smith will be gone by 4-5th rounds.

So ya, I get the point of these threads. I enjoy them. But I can barely use them because I feel like the "value" you guys get are more due to inexperienced draftmates.

 

[Apeman]

I went Clavin, Andre & AJ with my 1st 3 picks in the FBG FPC last night

Clavin's overrated. Norm is where the value is

Early favorite for post of the day.

 

[rascal]

I went Clavin, Andre & AJ with my 1st 3 picks in the FBG FPC last night

I went Calvin, Forte, Julio, and AJ in my first four picks last night. 10 team league.Followed by Gore, Dez, and Ryan.

 

[Grahamburn]

which makes the WRs like Fitzgerald and Andre even more valuable. They are known commodities, and their production can be counted on. There were quite a few "I'm passing on Fitzgerald because I can find his production later on" comments last season. The reality is you can't.

Fitz has not been the same without Warner at QB. I don't see how people miss out on that. His receptions and TDs have gone down. Last year, his YPR shot way up (by 5 full yards). He's usually the 2nd or 3rd WR off the board . . . and I don't see him as the #2 WR. Over the past 2 seasons, he's ranked 14th in fantasy ppg.Andre is valuable . . . when he plays. He missed some time in 2010 and a lot of time in 2011. Last year, on a per game basis, his numbers were nowhere near what they were a few years ago. Sure, if he is healthy he is worth an early pick, but if he is at a point where he can't be relied on to play each week and/or his numbers start to slide, he may not be in the "production that can be relied on" group.

Not many players would be the same going from Kurt Warner to Max Hall or Derek Anderson. I don't think that's an indictment of Fitzgerald. The reality is Fitzgerald just had a 1,411 yard 8 TD season and a top 5 WR finish with the exact supporting cast he has in 2012. What has changed in his situation leading people to believe his production will suffer? Andre's ppg numbers last season were on par with his historical numbers if you don't include the game where he injured his hamstring and the first couple games where he came back on a snap count. The first 3 games with Schaub and two playoff games were vintage Andre. Taking on injury risk is a matter of preference. Drafters who hedge that risk won't take him. Drafters who understand what he can do with Schaub if he's healthy will take him. My thought process on Andre is this: "What if he does play all 16?"

While it may not ultimately make that much of a difference, Fitz did poorly with Kolb and well with Skelton. That could be a factor in how well Fitz does this year. Also, if he goes back to his more normal YPR, he could fall to the 1000-1100 range again. Not saying it will happen, but IMO Fitz is really not that much more attractive than a bunch of guys after Megatron.

Which players is he not that much more attractive than though? The point I'm trying to make is if you're hanging your hat on one of these mid round WRs to be your WR1 you'd better hit on the right guy, because some of them won't even put up Larry Fitzgerald's worst case scenario numbers.I think we can agree 1,100 and 7 is probably Fitzgerald's floor, and we can probably also agree that 1,400 and 10 is his ceiling with this supporting cast. He's a very safe pick.

 

[FF Ninja]

Andre is valuable . . . when he plays. He missed some time in 2010 and a lot of time in 2011. Last year, on a per game basis, his numbers were nowhere near what they were a few years ago. Sure, if he is healthy he is worth an early pick, but if he is at a point where he can't be relied on to play each week and/or his numbers start to slide, he may not be in the "production that can be relied on" group.

I don't mean to pick on you since you are one of the few posters in this forum with good info, but you've mentioned this before and it's simply not true if you only look at the full games he played last year. Why count the games in which he was injured and/or on a snap count?From the AJ thread:

Hampered with injuries the past two seasons, Johnson saw his per game numbers dip a little to 6-85-0.5 per game. I think he will come in around that on a per game basis, but at this point I would only slot him for 14 games played. 80-1175-7

That is kind of bastardizing stats because he only played 3 full regular season games in 2011, so you are bogging down a 20 game average with 20% of them being inaccurate duds (3-44-0). Four of those games he was on a snap count. If you remove those four games and count the playoffs where he was healthy, then you have 13 2010 games and 5 2011 games in which he put up 120 rec, 1733 yds, and 11 TD which is 6.67-96.3-0.61, or a 16g equivalent of 107-1540-10

Specifically in 2011, AJ was healthy in the following games:

Week Targ Rec Yds TD   1   11   7  95  1   2    9   7  93  1   3   12   7 128  0  18    9   5  90  1  19   15   8 111  0

With an ADP of 18, I'm all about snagging him in the 2nd. If I get dragged into a PPR league, I'll take him in the 1st if I don't think I can get him in the 2nd.

 

[th3f00l]

I've been targeting Brandon Marshall (3rd) or Brandon Lloyd(4th/5th) at WR#1, then Dwayne Bowe(5th) or Antonio Brown(5th/6th) at #2, Greg Little (10th) or Mike Williams (11th) for the #3, and Alshon Jeffrey or Jon Baldwin before my kicker at #4. I'm thinking you go RB RB, unless one of the top 3 QB or Megatron are available in the first, or Gronk/Graham in the second. I don't see any WR aside from Megatron I would take before the 3rd round.

 

[David Yudkin]

Andre is valuable . . . when he plays. He missed some time in 2010 and a lot of time in 2011. Last year, on a per game basis, his numbers were nowhere near what they were a few years ago. Sure, if he is healthy he is worth an early pick, but if he is at a point where he can't be relied on to play each week and/or his numbers start to slide, he may not be in the "production that can be relied on" group.

I don't mean to pick on you since you are one of the few posters in this forum with good info, but you've mentioned this before and it's simply not true if you only look at the full games he played last year. Why count the games in which he was injured and/or on a snap count?From the AJ thread:

Hampered with injuries the past two seasons, Johnson saw his per game numbers dip a little to 6-85-0.5 per game. I think he will come in around that on a per game basis, but at this point I would only slot him for 14 games played. 80-1175-7

That is kind of bastardizing stats because he only played 3 full regular season games in 2011, so you are bogging down a 20 game average with 20% of them being inaccurate duds (3-44-0). Four of those games he was on a snap count. If you remove those four games and count the playoffs where he was healthy, then you have 13 2010 games and 5 2011 games in which he put up 120 rec, 1733 yds, and 11 TD which is 6.67-96.3-0.61, or a 16g equivalent of 107-1540-10

Specifically in 2011, AJ was healthy in the following games:
Week Targ Rec Yds TD 1 11 7 95 1 2 9 7 93 1 3 12 7 128 0 18 9 5 90 1 19 15 8 111 0With an ADP of 18, I'm all about snagging him in the 2nd. If I get dragged into a PPR league, I'll take him in the 1st if I don't think I can get him in the 2nd.

I agree that if we try to extrapolate the numbers we can make Johnson look better last year. But the fact is, when the rubber hit the road and you had to insert him into your lineup last year, you couldn't get a do over, and you couldn't get points that weren't there. You had to eat the game when he got hurt, the games he missed, and the games he was on a pitch count so to speak. I already said he's great when he's healthy. Yet you did a nice job in outlining that he was only healthy in 5 games last year. That also means he was not healthy or flat out not available for 13 other games last year. And when you consider that two of your examples were not fantasy weeks and were NFL playoff weeks, all that means is anyone that drafted him last year did not get a great ROI and got a healthy Andre Johnson for only 3 weeks early on.I have drafted Johnson this year and would continue to draft him this year and beyond. But it's not like he doesn't have any warts and blemishes. He doesn't score a ton of TDs and he's missed time in 4 years and missed the fantasy SB the past two years. Does that make him an injury risk? Probably not, but it is something to consider. One would have to think that as he ages he may begin to miss more time, not less, but that is more a guess than anything else.

 

[mbuehner]

on the surface wr's look deep. however when you really break it down, i am not a believer in a ton of the top wr's this year. i think there is a lot better value in some of the middle round guys. i think megatron is worth a first round pick and i think that julio jones is worth a 2nd round pick. but i think thats it as far as the sure things go. Fitz- Crappy qb, crappy o-line, crappy team. besides for 1 flukey broken down play last week, he would of had a donutJennings- concussions are scary, way too many mouths to feed in GBAndre Johnson - NEVER healthy already starting the year with a gimpy groin. never really has ammassed double digit td's, running offenseAJ Green- may require 2nd round pick but slumped at end of last year, Dalton kinda sucks, plays 3 of the best passing defenses in league TWICE. thats 6 games vs top d's.Roddy White- I actually do like Roddy and would consider him at end of 2 or beginning of 3.Thoughts?

With a quick aside that virtually all of these things were also true last year, we need to realize that all of these point actually demonstrate why the class is deep. Megatron is elite and the second tier is very wide precisely because there isn't that much difference between what you might expect from Dez Bryant or Brandon Lloyd and Greg Jenning or Roddy White. The second tier is deep both because there are so many more balls being thown in the pass happy NFL, and also because there is only 1 WR that is consensus elite (often there are at least two or three that are considered reasonable to predict finishing WR1).VBD then suggests forgoing the top 2nd tier wide receivers in favor of another position since you arent losing much value between rounds 2 and 3 or 4 at WR.

 

[SSOG]

While it may not ultimately make that much of a difference, Fitz did poorly with Kolb and well with Skelton. That could be a factor in how well Fitz does this year. Also, if he goes back to his more normal YPR, he could fall to the 1000-1100 range again. Not saying it will happen, but IMO Fitz is really not that much more attractive than a bunch of guys after Megatron.

Fitz didn't do as poorly with Kolb as you think. The TD numbers were bad, but you know how volatile those can be, especially over a half-season sample size. His yardage with Kolb still put him on a 1300+ yard pace.

IIRC, the difference in Fitz' performance with each QB was 13.9 vs. 9.7 ppg (0 ppr). That's a fair amount. The sample size is so small that it may not make a difference.

I was running the numbers earlier this offseason, and the ppg difference came almost entirely from TDs. I'm at work and can't check them, but iirc he got something like 2 TDs in 8 games with Kolb and 6 TDs in 8 games with Skelton. If so, that'd account for about 3 ppg worth of the difference.When dealing with samples that small, I'm not as concerned with the TD fluctuations. All I know is that Fitz was putting up elite yardage numbers even with Kolb, and TDs typically follow yards. As a Fitz owner, I'd prefer Skelton, but I'm not going to sweat it if I get Kolb, instead.

 

[ponchsox]

I like the idea of grabbing a good #2 RB or even #3 RB as a flex while the run on WRs starts with Cruz, Jennings, Nelson, etc. I find you can get someone like Colston or Steve Smith a round later and then go for a couple emerging WR like Torey Smith or Eric Decker in the 6th and 7th rounds.

 

[gandalas]

value city in rounds 4-8

Agree...I went RB-RB-RB to start my draft, and then loaded up on WR in the mid rnds.End up with:ColstonDemaryiusBoweDeSeanTons of late picks...

 

[Chazzhawk]

I couldn't disagree more. Fitz had terrible quarterbacks last year and put up 1400 and 8. Andre Johnson has legit concerns. Green faded last year because of injuries and maybe the rookie wall. The depth at receiver refers to the facy there are solid wr2s well into the 8th or 9th round

 

[packersfan]

Truly not trying to be a ##### here... But what kind of league do many of you play in? I hate "bragging" about my league (not really) but there is no way in HELL, guys like Nicks, Marshall, Green etc fall to round 4-6.It may work for some of you who dont have the same leaguemates for the past decade+, who are all as serious as I am about the game... But I have no shot in hell at some of the "values" you guys cream over to make your points. Even Torrey Smith will be gone by 4-5th rounds. So ya, I get the point of these threads. I enjoy them. But I can barely use them because I feel like the "value" you guys get are more due to inexperienced draftmates.

Each league definitely is different and it really comes down to who you're competing against. I know in my league that I have to at least get one good WR in one of the first three rounds. If I wait until the fourth round I'll end up with something like Wayne, Nate Washington and Torrey Smith as my receiving corps. That's not the type of WR group I want to go into the season with.

 

[pollardsvision]

Nice to see Fitz getting some respect in here.

Lost in the "why get Fitz when I can get X cheaper?" is the way the other positions compare.

WR might be "shaky after the elite, but strong in the middle", but RB is too.

If you don't get a Top 6 RB (or even 3, depending on your risk aversion), a top 3-5 QB, Calvin, or Graham/Gronk (or more likely, you've got one, and are making your 2nd move), it's very easy to make the case that getting Fitz is the wise move.

RB, after the top 3-6, I'm not sure the next 15 or so aren't all the same. Like WR, there are some real cheap options at RB that compare well with the "almost elite" tier.

And those "almost elite" RBs scare me a heck of a lot more than Fitz.

 

[ponchsox]

Truly not trying to be a ##### here... But what kind of league do many of you play in? I hate "bragging" about my league (not really) but there is no way in HELL, guys like Nicks, Marshall, Green etc fall to round 4-6.It may work for some of you who dont have the same leaguemates for the past decade+, who are all as serious as I am about the game... But I have no shot in hell at some of the "values" you guys cream over to make your points. Even Torrey Smith will be gone by 4-5th rounds. So ya, I get the point of these threads. I enjoy them. But I can barely use them because I feel like the "value" you guys get are more due to inexperienced draftmates.

Each league definitely is different and it really comes down to who you're competing against. I know in my league that I have to at least get one good WR in one of the first three rounds. If I wait until the fourth round I'll end up with something like Wayne, Nate Washington and Torrey Smith as my receiving corps. That's not the type of WR group I want to go into the season with.

It really comes down to how much difference in point production you would get by taking a WR in that round vs a WR you could get a round or two later. If the difference is only 10 points, and there is a good RB left who could have a 20+ point advantage over the next group, you may want to wait.

 

[Fiddles]

Can't resist the Julio Cruz jordy Marshall tier. One of those guys is on each of my teams.

 

[Dragon Bones]

I think the premise is a good one. In draftin WRs you have to consider a lot. Obviously: Talent, health, durability, QB who throws to him, Other talent to allow for 1 on 1 situations, and of course the philosophy of the team - run / pass. The question anyone asks is... you can only score points if they are on the field. I love that article called Eliminate the Suck from FBG. its a good article that takes into consideration what we are talking about.

You look at Fitz ... obviously huge huge talent ... but what a MESS AZ is ... I mean a Mess... does that mean that he won't get his targets and TDs ... No .. but you put him against a good Def and just watch his production, you put him against the Rams ... and then BAM 2-3 TDs. With those goes on crappy teams, its about match-ups... at least that is what I think. you can always go with ... always play your studs and if they are getting smoked 40 to 6 ... you will always have garbage time TDs.

So, with that in mind what should be the real WRs list ... that can be subjective based on what you value the most and risk

That is the reason why Maty Ice is launching up the ADP ... Jones and White make him a tasty prospect.

Look at what all the power house WR teams have in common

Green Bay

Atlanta

Pats

Pittsburg

you could argue Philly

then you have the single dudes in a slew of options

New Orleans

Detroit

You have the walking wounded in Dallas

You have the dissaster in Arizona

and then you have Houston with two absolute stud RBs and O-line that loves to run

 

[ponchsox]

With the exception of Calvin and maybe Julio Jones, I think you can pull the names of WR 3-20 out of a hat and that is how they could finish. The days of Fitz and AJ producing monster numbers over everyone else is over.

 

[fightingillini]

The depth at WR is perceived in my opinion.

Not all of those guys are going to put up 1,100 and 9. Several of them are going to end up at 900 and 6 if not worse, which makes the WRs like Fitzgerald and Andre even more valuable. They are known commodities, and their production can be counted on.

There were quite a few "I'm passing on Fitzgerald because I can find his production later on" comments last season. The reality is you can't.

Of course some guys will bust in that large second tier.But I disagree with your last point. I think what you really mean is "you may not get his production later". But it's silly to think that you CAN'T.

The reason Fitzgerald is drafted so high is because he's has the best shot at achieving his projected numbers, as well has he has the talent to put up Calvin type numbers. But can Fitzgerald achieve the numbers that makes it worth an early 2nd round pick? With Skelton or Kolb at QB, I would say the answer is no, with my projection of Fitzgerald being 90-1275-8. Do you seriously think that you can't get those stats with a mid round WR? So drafting Fitzgerald with an early 2nd round pick is likely a 4th place strategy, since you will likely lose to the owner who takes RB-RB or RB-Elite QB in the first two rounds and hits it big with one of those WRs drafted in rounds 4-8. Now sure, it may not happen, but I would rather load up on RBs, elite QB and TE in early rounds and look for the WRs later. Those positions are more scarce.....and RBs carry much more trade value as well.

So you're passing on Fitzgerald because drafting him doesn't maximize your team potential, unless you feel that the AZ QBs can make Fitzgerald produce elite numbers, which I don't believe.

 

[ponchsox]

The depth at WR is perceived in my opinion.

Not all of those guys are going to put up 1,100 and 9. Several of them are going to end up at 900 and 6 if not worse, which makes the WRs like Fitzgerald and Andre even more valuable. They are known commodities, and their production can be counted on.

There were quite a few "I'm passing on Fitzgerald because I can find his production later on" comments last season. The reality is you can't.

Of course some guys will bust in that large second tier.But I disagree with your last point. I think what you really mean is "you may not get his production later". But it's silly to think that you CAN'T.

The reason Fitzgerald is drafted so high is because he's has the best shot at achieving his projected numbers, as well has he has the talent to put up Calvin type numbers. But can Fitzgerald achieve the numbers that makes it worth an early 2nd round pick? With Skelton or Kolb at QB, I would say the answer is no, with my projection of Fitzgerald being 90-1275-8. Do you seriously think that you can't get those stats with a mid round WR? So drafting Fitzgerald with an early 2nd round pick is likely a 4th place strategy, since you will likely lose to the owner who takes RB-RB or RB-Elite QB in the first two rounds and hits it big with one of those WRs drafted in rounds 4-8. Now sure, it may not happen, but I would rather load up on RBs, elite QB and TE in early rounds and look for the WRs later. Those positions are more scarce.....and RBs carry much more trade value as well.

So you're passing on Fitzgerald because drafting him doesn't maximize your team potential, unless you feel that the AZ QBs can make Fitzgerald produce elite numbers, which I don't believe.

Exactly. Torrey Smith can give you numbers pretty darn close to Fitz while the team that took Demarco Murray is grossly outscoring Isaac Redman.

 

[LHUCKS]

The days of Fitz and AJ producing monster numbers over everyone else is over.

I don't think so.