We all know this game don't we! I'll start by telling you what I think the fantasy community and NFL expert analysts will be dead wrong on this year and then I'd love to see your thoughts too:
1) Myth - The Saints will be a ball control, run-oriented offense now that Jimmy Graham is gone.
Reality - While anything is possible, this is pure speculation. Nothing against Mark Ingram, I think he's a solid back, but Sean Payton ain't pinning his hopes on the running game...not when he has drew brees as his QB. Brees is one of the best qbs to ever play the game. In 2010, Graham was a rookie. He had 44 targets and only about 350 yds rec. and 5 tds. Brees spread the ball around to the tune of 4600 yards and 33 touchdowns. He spread the ball around to guys like Colston, lance Moore, Devery henderson, and stallworth. He also used jeremy shockey, reggie bush, and pierre thomas. In the end, Brees posted fantastic numbers but made most of his receivers outside of colston not very fantasy relevant.
If I had to guess, I'd say that this is how the saints will approach this season with Graham gone. Also, their defense is putrid. Sothey will be involved in a lot of shootouts, and Brees will still get his, and he will prove to be a steal with where he is getting drafted. This leads me into my 2nd against the grain prediction:
2) Myth - Brandin Cooks is going to become an elite WR this year.
Reality - He is talented...UBER talented. And I do think he will be fantastic for PPR. However, he is going to face a ton of defensive attention this year. Who else do the saints have at WR and TE to draw attention away from cooks? Brandon Coleman? Josh hill/Ben Watson? A 73 year old Colston? All of these guys have some talent and are good role players, but make no mistake, opposing defenses know that this kid is the goods on NO and he will get treated as such every week with extra defensive attention. Now if he was a bigger WR who can fight though double teams and go up and get passes, I'd say no biggie to that. But cooks is a smaller wr. I think that Brees isn't going to force the ball into any one wr this year. He's going to find the open man and exploit match-ups. When opposing defenses are keying in on cooks, he'll find guys like coleman and colston. He'll make them pay. And then he'll go to cooks when defenses adjust. But this logic makes me feel that cooks is being over-valued in drafts. Solid WR2 this year and maybe WR3 in standard leagues. Nothing more.
3) Myth - The Cleveland Browns will have the most anemic offense in the NFL this year.
Reality - I don't have too much to back up the opinion that Cleveland will surprise people this year other than this:
1) Their offensive line is really really good. They should have a great running game with crowell and duke johnson, and McCown should have the time to throw, despite the fact that he is throwing to garbage level wrs.
2) Usually when everyone thinks things will go one way in the NFL, they tend to go the other way lol.
4) Myth - Payton Manning is seriously declining and he will possibly be outside of the top 10 fantasy qbs this season. Kubiak's offense is run-oriented so that helps to back this up.
Reality - All reports out of camp have been that manning looks FANTASTIC. Granted he faded down the stretch last season and that may happen again, but outside the top 10? He's still top 5 this year, bank on it. Maybe top 3. Kubiak has NEVER even DREAMED of working with a QB of manning's caliber. He is going to run the offense the way PAYTON wants the offense run, make no mistake. Denver wouldn't have even brought Kubiak in without that understanding. Payton will have more freedom to do as he pleases on the field than any QB kubiak has ever worked with. When he sees coverage that is favorable for passing, he will audible at the LOS and throw a pass regardless of what play call came from the sidelines, and every coach on the sidelines is just fine with that when the guy doing it is the best and most cerebral QB to ever play the game. Owners who grabbed him in the middle rounds of their drafts this year are going to be rewarded handsomely.
I'm sure I can think of more, but that's a good start. What do you guys have?
1) Myth - The Saints will be a ball control, run-oriented offense now that Jimmy Graham is gone.
Reality - While anything is possible, this is pure speculation. Nothing against Mark Ingram, I think he's a solid back, but Sean Payton ain't pinning his hopes on the running game...not when he has drew brees as his QB. Brees is one of the best qbs to ever play the game. In 2010, Graham was a rookie. He had 44 targets and only about 350 yds rec. and 5 tds. Brees spread the ball around to the tune of 4600 yards and 33 touchdowns. He spread the ball around to guys like Colston, lance Moore, Devery henderson, and stallworth. He also used jeremy shockey, reggie bush, and pierre thomas. In the end, Brees posted fantastic numbers but made most of his receivers outside of colston not very fantasy relevant.
If I had to guess, I'd say that this is how the saints will approach this season with Graham gone. Also, their defense is putrid. Sothey will be involved in a lot of shootouts, and Brees will still get his, and he will prove to be a steal with where he is getting drafted. This leads me into my 2nd against the grain prediction:
2) Myth - Brandin Cooks is going to become an elite WR this year.
Reality - He is talented...UBER talented. And I do think he will be fantastic for PPR. However, he is going to face a ton of defensive attention this year. Who else do the saints have at WR and TE to draw attention away from cooks? Brandon Coleman? Josh hill/Ben Watson? A 73 year old Colston? All of these guys have some talent and are good role players, but make no mistake, opposing defenses know that this kid is the goods on NO and he will get treated as such every week with extra defensive attention. Now if he was a bigger WR who can fight though double teams and go up and get passes, I'd say no biggie to that. But cooks is a smaller wr. I think that Brees isn't going to force the ball into any one wr this year. He's going to find the open man and exploit match-ups. When opposing defenses are keying in on cooks, he'll find guys like coleman and colston. He'll make them pay. And then he'll go to cooks when defenses adjust. But this logic makes me feel that cooks is being over-valued in drafts. Solid WR2 this year and maybe WR3 in standard leagues. Nothing more.
3) Myth - The Cleveland Browns will have the most anemic offense in the NFL this year.
Reality - I don't have too much to back up the opinion that Cleveland will surprise people this year other than this:
1) Their offensive line is really really good. They should have a great running game with crowell and duke johnson, and McCown should have the time to throw, despite the fact that he is throwing to garbage level wrs.
2) Usually when everyone thinks things will go one way in the NFL, they tend to go the other way lol.
4) Myth - Payton Manning is seriously declining and he will possibly be outside of the top 10 fantasy qbs this season. Kubiak's offense is run-oriented so that helps to back this up.
Reality - All reports out of camp have been that manning looks FANTASTIC. Granted he faded down the stretch last season and that may happen again, but outside the top 10? He's still top 5 this year, bank on it. Maybe top 3. Kubiak has NEVER even DREAMED of working with a QB of manning's caliber. He is going to run the offense the way PAYTON wants the offense run, make no mistake. Denver wouldn't have even brought Kubiak in without that understanding. Payton will have more freedom to do as he pleases on the field than any QB kubiak has ever worked with. When he sees coverage that is favorable for passing, he will audible at the LOS and throw a pass regardless of what play call came from the sidelines, and every coach on the sidelines is just fine with that when the guy doing it is the best and most cerebral QB to ever play the game. Owners who grabbed him in the middle rounds of their drafts this year are going to be rewarded handsomely.
I'm sure I can think of more, but that's a good start. What do you guys have?
