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***The Official 2010/2011 Red Sox*** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Clifton
- Start date
Darth Cheney
Footballguy
Blow it up.
Darth Cheney
Footballguy
All kidding aside.....it was the injuries. That's it. Pedroia, Youklis, Lester, Buccholz and Bard are a great core. Beckett could bounce back. I'm not sure about Lackey, Papelbon or Dice K....although there isn't much you can do with them.
the moops
Footballguy
Papelbon is not signed for next year.Dice-K has two more years at 12 million. I could see some team taking a chance on him for half that money, if the Sox were interested in dealing him.They are stuck with Lackey and his ugly face.
the moops
Footballguy
All this Yankee chatter got me thinking.
DH - Team has a club option on Ortiz for 11.5 million. I think there is zero chance they don't pick this up. Fangraphs has him being worth 13.5 million last year. He can't hit lefties and he can't hit in April/May, but he turned himself into a decent representation of his old self this past year.
C - They let V-Mart walk. They trade for Mike Napoli and Salty becomes their backup.
1B - Kevin Youkilis is still one of the top 5 first basemen in all of baseball. He is signed through 2012, and the team has an option on him in 2013. He is their first baseman next year, unless they make a move for Adrian Gonzalez, and then he slides over to 3B.
2B - Pedroia is signed through 2013. Team has an option in 2014. He is what he is. A very good defensive second baseman who will hit 15 HRs, get on base at a decent clip and score 100+ runs. While I think he is overrated, and didn't deserve the MVP 2 years ago, there are no complaints having him your second baseman for the next 5 years.
SS - Scutaro or Lowrie. If ###### Jed Lowrie could stay healthy, they would be set. Jed, when healthy has hit the snot out of the ball. Put up an OPS of 907 this year after being hurt for a good chunk of the past year and a half. He is only 26 and the Sox love him. I think he becomes the everyday SS and Scutaro, who did what everyone expected (not suck, but not really that good), becomes the utility guy.
3B - I think they resign Beltre for 4 years. I can't begin to guess the numbers, but they saw something in him last year (and apparently Theo made a strong attempt a few years back for him as well), and I think they give him a hefty contract. He had his second best year of his career. After struggling defensively a bit at first, he showed how incredible and what makes him the greatest defensive 3B ever
. Lowell is gone.
OF - Ellsbury is traded in some fashion that nets them Napoli from the Angels. Cameron becomes the starting CF, Drew stays in RF, they sign Jayson Werth to play LF. Darnell McDonald earned a chance to stick around and be the 4th OF.
SP - Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, Lackey, Dice-K. I think they roll the dice with these 4 again and hope that Lester and Buchholz stay the same, while Beckett and Lackey revert back a couple of years and they hope Dice-K finally decides to throw some ####### strikes.
RP - I hope they give the closer job to Bard just so I dont have to watch that tool Papelbon anymore.
DH - Team has a club option on Ortiz for 11.5 million. I think there is zero chance they don't pick this up. Fangraphs has him being worth 13.5 million last year. He can't hit lefties and he can't hit in April/May, but he turned himself into a decent representation of his old self this past year.
C - They let V-Mart walk. They trade for Mike Napoli and Salty becomes their backup.
1B - Kevin Youkilis is still one of the top 5 first basemen in all of baseball. He is signed through 2012, and the team has an option on him in 2013. He is their first baseman next year, unless they make a move for Adrian Gonzalez, and then he slides over to 3B.
2B - Pedroia is signed through 2013. Team has an option in 2014. He is what he is. A very good defensive second baseman who will hit 15 HRs, get on base at a decent clip and score 100+ runs. While I think he is overrated, and didn't deserve the MVP 2 years ago, there are no complaints having him your second baseman for the next 5 years.
SS - Scutaro or Lowrie. If ###### Jed Lowrie could stay healthy, they would be set. Jed, when healthy has hit the snot out of the ball. Put up an OPS of 907 this year after being hurt for a good chunk of the past year and a half. He is only 26 and the Sox love him. I think he becomes the everyday SS and Scutaro, who did what everyone expected (not suck, but not really that good), becomes the utility guy.
3B - I think they resign Beltre for 4 years. I can't begin to guess the numbers, but they saw something in him last year (and apparently Theo made a strong attempt a few years back for him as well), and I think they give him a hefty contract. He had his second best year of his career. After struggling defensively a bit at first, he showed how incredible and what makes him the greatest defensive 3B ever
. Lowell is gone.OF - Ellsbury is traded in some fashion that nets them Napoli from the Angels. Cameron becomes the starting CF, Drew stays in RF, they sign Jayson Werth to play LF. Darnell McDonald earned a chance to stick around and be the 4th OF.
SP - Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, Lackey, Dice-K. I think they roll the dice with these 4 again and hope that Lester and Buchholz stay the same, while Beckett and Lackey revert back a couple of years and they hope Dice-K finally decides to throw some ####### strikes.
RP - I hope they give the closer job to Bard just so I dont have to watch that tool Papelbon anymore.
Jambi
Footballguy
All this Yankee chatter got me thinking.
DH - Team has a club option on Ortiz for 11.5 million. I think there is zero chance they don't pick this up. Fangraphs has him being worth 13.5 million last year. He can't hit lefties and he can't hit in April/May, but he turned himself into a decent representation of his old self this past year.
Papi stays for another year. He ended the season with pretty monstrous numbers. Steps will be taken this year to have him warmed up early. Not sure exactly what they can do but something has to be done. He was so bad the past two season the first 8-10 weeks of the season I'm surprised he wasn't cut
C - They let V-Mart walk. They trade for Mike Napoli and Salty becomes their backup.
He's demanding a multiyear deal of 3+ years. He and his agent need to realize he's no longer a catcher. If they can't sign Beltre and fail to sign or trade for a big 1B, they'll have to resign him.
1B - Kevin Youkilis is still one of the top 5 first basemen in all of baseball. He is signed through 2012, and the team has an option on him in 2013. He is their first baseman next year, unless they make a move for Adrian Gonzalez, and then he slides over to 3B.
I believe the Sox make a play for A-Gonzalez, Prince fielder or :gasp: Miguel Cabrera. If they don't Youk stays here and 3rd base needs to be addressed. FA options include Konerko, C Pena, A Dunn. Wouldn't be completely surprised to see Konerko sign if Beltre doesn't. There's always chatter about Dunn in Boston as well.
2B - Pedroia is signed through 2013. Team has an option in 2014. He is what he is. A very good defensive second baseman who will hit 15 HRs, get on base at a decent clip and score 100+ runs. While I think he is overrated, and didn't deserve the MVP 2 years ago, there are no complaints having him your second baseman for the next 5 years.
No issues here.
SS - Scutaro or Lowrie. If ###### Jed Lowrie could stay healthy, they would be set. Jed, when healthy has hit the snot out of the ball. Put up an OPS of 907 this year after being hurt for a good chunk of the past year and a half. He is only 26 and the Sox love him. I think he becomes the everyday SS and Scutaro, who did what everyone expected (not suck, but not really that good), becomes the utility guy.
Not a believer in Lowrie unfortunately. This is always the problem spot. I'm still not convinced the Sox will not attempt to make a play for Hanley. If it ever happened which is unlikely (he's singed through 2015 for around 15M) he'd spend no more than a year at SS. He's terrible there. His skills appear to be declining a bit as well. The right package gets this done and they did make the Marlins a solid offer in 2008.
3B - I think they resign Beltre for 4 years. I can't begin to guess the numbers, but they saw something in him last year (and apparently Theo made a strong attempt a few years back for him as well), and I think they give him a hefty contract. He had his second best year of his career. After struggling defensively a bit at first, he showed how incredible and what makes him the greatest defensive 3B ever. Lowell is gone.
4 years is WAY to long for Beltre unless it looks something like 4/50. He was great last year but he's been average every other year dating back to his one monster season. He's played 13 seasons. If you take out his one juiced out, monster season, he's a career 21HR, 80RBI guy with a .775 ops....great in the field, yes but offensively just above average. He's getting old and his defensive skills are declining. If they can't get him for 3/48 they don't sign him. I even think that's too much. They're hands are kind of tied here but they're not going to add another high risk contract after JD Drew, Dice-K, Lugo, Renteria and Lackey. If they make a play for a monster 1B like Gonzalez then this isn't an issue.
OF - Ellsbury is traded in some fashion that nets them Napoli from the Angels. Cameron becomes the starting CF, Drew stays in RF, they sign Jayson Werth to play LF. Darnell McDonald earned a chance to stick around and be the 4th OF.
Doubt Ellsbury is traded. Could see it happening for one of the players mentioned above but it's sure as hell not going to be in a deal that returns Napoli. The guy can steal 80 bases a year. Sox have never had a speedster like him in the lineup. He's a great lead-off guy with skills in the field. He changes the game when he's on base. Ellsbury is valuable. If Ellsbury goes, Crawford signs. If they fail to add some pop at 1st they're going to have to add some here. Its just to hard to contend in the AL east without serious power. I do see Werth as a great fit in Boston. He already seems like a Boston guy. Could he end up being JD Drew Pt 2?
SP - Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, Lackey, Dice-K. I think they roll the dice with these 4 again and hope that Lester and Buchholz stay the same, while Beckett and Lackey revert back a couple of years and they hope Dice-K finally decides to throw some ####### strikes.
Unfortunately Buchholz should be in for a correction. I like his skill set but his era/whip were way too low for his K/9, which I expected to be a full 2 Ks better this year. Instead it has steadily declined every year since entering the league. Not sure what is going on here. Beckett is either done or he's going to have a strong rebound. He's a competitor. If he continues to slide in the direction he's been headed, he'll have a mental breakdown. Maybe that's what we were seeing this year. Lester is a pimp. If Lackey is your #4 I think you're in good shape. Dice-K showed flashes of control this year. If they continue to work with him and get him to attack the batter with strikes he'll be okay. I honestly don't care what happens to him.
RP - I hope they give the closer job to Bard just so I don't have to watch that tool Papelbon anymore.
I'd like to think he'd be involved in a trade but who wants one year of Papelbon at 12M? There's no way they keep him around in a set-up role for Bard. He's too much of a loudmouth and he's ego is too large. If he's not traded he'll begin 2011 on a short leash as closer. He was terrible towards the end of last year and pretty mediocre all year. Not exactly the kind of season you want to put together when you're one year away from FA. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sox release him. He's got very little trade value and he's been running his mouth for years about what his demands are going to look like when he hits FA. How he is going to make a bold statement for the future of closers everywhere. I say let him go.
Jambi
Footballguy
Uh....no thanks.
Balco
Footballguy
It's Bard that gives me pause. Upton would be a nice addition in the outfield, He still has untapped potential, and is a solid defensive player. 30-30 ability.
the moops
Footballguy
I think Theo would throw in Bard without hesitation. Teams overate relievers, especially closers. Every year, we see veteran relievers stink it up and see relative no-names close 30 games. If you can make a 70 inning reliever the centerpiece for someone like Upton, you can't hold back because it weakens your bullpen. Now, I don't think Towers would go for it if Bard is the main piece, hence the inclusion of Ellsbury.The deal that Detroit gave Benoit does throw up some hesitation, knowing that Bard is only making 1/2 million a year. But they could suck it up and pay Papelbon and sign someone like Putz or Francisco and fill in around the edges.
Balco
Footballguy
I know it won't happen, but the more I think about it, the more I think the Sox should do that Upton deal if possible.
I think Ellsbury is very overrated, and although I believe Bard can be a dominant closer, losing him in a package would be worth it to get a player of Upton's caliber. Upton signed a 6 year 51 million dollar contract before last season, so he is locked up long term to a pretty good deal.
Solid defensive outfielders that are perennial 30-30 threats don't grow on trees.
Why on earth would the Diamondbacks want to deal him?
I think Ellsbury is very overrated, and although I believe Bard can be a dominant closer, losing him in a package would be worth it to get a player of Upton's caliber. Upton signed a 6 year 51 million dollar contract before last season, so he is locked up long term to a pretty good deal.
Solid defensive outfielders that are perennial 30-30 threats don't grow on trees.
Why on earth would the Diamondbacks want to deal him?
Michael Brown
Footballguy
Upton is going to be one of the biggest offensive forces in baseball over the next 10 years. I don't get it either.
Balco
Footballguy
Solid Defensive Player. 30-30 potential. And solid contract. Not sure what the issue is? You build around players like that, not try to trade them.Upton is going to be one of the biggest offensive forces in baseball over the next 10 years. I don't get it either.
the moops
Footballguy
Looks like Victor Martinez is going to sign with Detroit. 4 years, 50 million. Hardball Times
Red Sox get the best unprotected pick in the draft that they could possibly get if he goes to Detroit.
Red Sox get the best unprotected pick in the draft that they could possibly get if he goes to Detroit.
Balco
Footballguy
4 for 50 for a 32 year old backstop? Solid year last year, but no thanks. ANd they get the 19th pick in the draft as well. Good deal.
With that said, I have no idea who they are going to pair up with Saltalamacchia. I am sure the Pirates would be more than willing to give up Chris Snyder for cash considerations. He can't hit, but he is a solid defensive catcher. I would rather have him as the full time catcher.
I still can't believe the D Backs are serious about Upton, so I am hoping the Sox rekindle talks for Adrian Gonzalez.
With that said, I have no idea who they are going to pair up with Saltalamacchia. I am sure the Pirates would be more than willing to give up Chris Snyder for cash considerations. He can't hit, but he is a solid defensive catcher. I would rather have him as the full time catcher.
I still can't believe the D Backs are serious about Upton, so I am hoping the Sox rekindle talks for Adrian Gonzalez.
Balco
Footballguy
Looks like the Red Sox are going hard after Carl Crawford. It has been reported that he wants an 8 year deal, and if that is the case, I hope the Sox stay far away. But if they can sign him to a 5 or 6 year deal, not bad at all.
If they do sign him, I think they will immediately try to trade for Adrien Gonzalez, parting with Ellsbury and prospects.
If they do sign him, I think they will immediately try to trade for Adrien Gonzalez, parting with Ellsbury and prospects.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Is Crawford really that much better than a healthy Ellsbury?2009 numbers:Craword .816 OPS and 60 SB, Ellsbury .770 OPS and 70 SB.Especially when you consider Ellsbury is getting paid $500K a year.
Balco
Footballguy
Absolutely. Also look at it this way, if the Sox get Crawford, Ellsbury can be the chip that gets them Adrian Gonzalez.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Several things . . .1) SD is no longer a charity case. They were in it until the final weekend, so they have a lot less motivation to move Gonzalez, as he can help them win just like he would any other franchise.2) The Pads seem to have wanted the store for Gonzalez, including Ellsbury, Buchholz or Lester, and another MLB ready pitcher (rumored to have been Bard) or other top prospects. No way is Gonzalez worth that much.3) If Gonzalez were to come to Boston, they would need to resign him or risk losing him. So it would be risky to get him without a new deal in place and his contract would also be hefty. Those two combined makes trading that many top players too costly.4) If he were to hit the open market, he could be signed WITHOUT trading the farm system or destroying the pitching staff.5) Crawford is rumored to be seeking an 8 year deal in the $125-$150M range. He probably won't get that many years, but he still might get $17-$18M a year (which IMO is way too much). I still think speed is highly overrated.6) As I mentioned earlier, Ellsbury at $500K has more real world value than Crawford at $18 million does. He may not be as good, but it's not like he's horrible.7) I don't see Boston being willing to spend that much on Crawford and at least that much on Gonzalez when they still have no proven catcher, are short a corner infielder, and have a so-so Scutaro at SS for this year. So it may be a case of Crawford OR Gonzalez, and I would rather see Gonzalez.Balco said:
Sleeping King
Footballguy
Except Crawford just costs money. Gonzalez will cost Ellsbury+Kelly+? and a new contract.
Balco
Footballguy
I agree if Crawford asks for 8 years (or even 6) the Sox should pass. Speed guys don't usually age well.
I think Werth is the guy the Sox get, and then they make another push for Adrian Gonzalez. I am not comfortable at all with Saltalamacchia as the primary catcher. Don't need a star there, but would like to see a solid defensive guy who can handle pitchers. Even if he hits .230.
I think Werth is the guy the Sox get, and then they make another push for Adrian Gonzalez. I am not comfortable at all with Saltalamacchia as the primary catcher. Don't need a star there, but would like to see a solid defensive guy who can handle pitchers. Even if he hits .230.
the moops
Footballguy
I don't think this is really true.Bill James did a couple of studies that looked at "old player skills" (walks and power) and "young player skills" (contact and speed). And looking at a large enough sample, it is clear that guys who rely on power and walks (and tend to K a lot) age faster, and in turn perform a little worse, than guys who rely on making contact.
the moops
Footballguy
He hit the ball decently in his 40 games last year. You could do worse than having him as your backup catcher.Now, their starting catcher is a bit of a problem.
Balco
Footballguy
That is why I wrote "meh". No idea who they will pursue as a starting catcher.
the moops
Footballguy
I was agreeing with the meh. That is why I wrote theThat is why I wrote "meh". No idea who they will pursue as a starting catcher.
Balco
Footballguy
the moops said:I was agreeing with the meh. That is why I wrote theBalco said:That is why I wrote "meh". No idea who they will pursue as a starting catcher.the moops said:Balco said:
Sleeping King
Footballguy
They offered Rivera 2 for 30 (Same the Yanks reportedly re-signed him for). I would have a mental breakdown if Jeter were to sign with the Sox but not Rivera. Not sure why I feel that way since he has been a bane to my existence.
Balco
Footballguy
Red Sox and Padres closer to Adrian Gonzalez deal:
ESPN Boston Article
Would be a huge signing if they can pull it off. From the article, the Padres want minor league players, not major league ones. Sox would have to give up a couple blue chip prospects, but they have to do it.
Adding Gonzalez to the middle of the lineup would be awesome. Still in his prime, he is a great defensive first baseman, and his offensive numbers would explode in Fenway.
ESPN Boston Article
Would be a huge signing if they can pull it off. From the article, the Padres want minor league players, not major league ones. Sox would have to give up a couple blue chip prospects, but they have to do it.
Adding Gonzalez to the middle of the lineup would be awesome. Still in his prime, he is a great defensive first baseman, and his offensive numbers would explode in Fenway.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
I was just coming in here to ask about a Gonzalez trade. If they sign Crawford or Werth, would Ellsbury be more likely to be included in a deal or is Ellsbury untouchable no matter what?
Balco
Footballguy
The Padres are in a tough financial situation, and pretty soon, Ellsbury will be making very good money. So from the article, it doesn't look like the Pads want major league players. Instead, they want players they can control for 6 years.I don't think Ellsbury is untouchable at all. I am assuming the Sox will sign Werth, which would give them 4 starting outfielders - Werth, Cameron, Ellsbury, and JD Drew. Ellsbury can be dangled in a trade for another piece.
the moops
Footballguy
I think a 4 man outfield could work just fine.Cameron only played in 48 games last year and he is 67 years old. JD Drew is good for 130'ish games. Werth or Cameron could DH against lefties as well.
Sleeping King
Footballguy
The 4th OF should be Kalish. In my world it would be
LF-Crawford
2B-Pedroia
3B-Youkilis
1B-Gonzalez
DH-Ortiz
RF-Drew
CF-Kalish
C-Salty
SS-Lowrie
Cameron
Scutaro
Tek
Nava/McDonald
LF-Crawford
2B-Pedroia
3B-Youkilis
1B-Gonzalez
DH-Ortiz
RF-Drew
CF-Kalish
C-Salty
SS-Lowrie
Cameron
Scutaro
Tek
Nava/McDonald
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Billy Bats
Footballguy
Cool thanks for the info. I was suprised to hear only minor leaguers in that article. Previously, Ellsbury was mentioned in a Gonzalez deal, but everything you said about the Pads makes sense. I'm scheming to get Gonzalez on my AL roster.
Balco
Footballguy
Hate to lose Kelly and the other prospects, but the Sox had to make the deal. Gonzalez is a proven commodity who makes the Red Sox markedly better. He is in his prime years as well (will be 29 during the season).Just a great deal. Looking forward to see who they go after next. I think Crawford is a lock to go to the Angels, so I think the Sox end up with Werth.
Sleeping King
Footballguy
I'll be sad to see Kelly go but even if it's Kelly, Rizzo and Kalish (which are 1-2-3 on SoxProspects.com list) I'll be ecstatic. Now just go get Crawford or Werth and some middle relief and things will look great.
LongDuckDong
Footballguy
Sleeping King
Footballguy
That's fantastic. The only one I am sad to see go is Kelly. Rizzo=never would play here with Gonzalez at 1B and hopefully Lars gets it going anyway
Fuentes=<Kalish, Reddick. And none of them really matter anyway. Westmoreland will own them all just like he owns brain surgery.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Fuentes is 19. To suggest he "doesn't matter" is ridiculous.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Bittersweet deal for fans like me. Gonzalez is better than advertised - he'll hit .320+ in Boston and approach 40 HRs, all while playing GG defense. I predict he'll win at least 1 MVP award in the next 3-5 years.
But he was leaving SD no matter what come next November, so I'm glad Jed is getting all he can for him now and not buying into the 2010 illusion that the Padres are close to being a legit contender. Kelly is still a year or so away, but he has elite stuff, so the idea of him and Latos in Petco is exciting. Rizzo's 20 HRs in the Eastern League at age 20 is very impressive, and although I don't know much about Fuentes, BA suggests he's the best athlete in the organization and had a good Sally season. Can't have too many 19 year old uber-athlete first rounders in your organization.
With the glaring hole at SS, I'm disappointed Iglesias isn't in the deal, but oh well. Hoyer has been nothing short of spectacular since coming to SD, so I'll trust his judgement on this one.
But he was leaving SD no matter what come next November, so I'm glad Jed is getting all he can for him now and not buying into the 2010 illusion that the Padres are close to being a legit contender. Kelly is still a year or so away, but he has elite stuff, so the idea of him and Latos in Petco is exciting. Rizzo's 20 HRs in the Eastern League at age 20 is very impressive, and although I don't know much about Fuentes, BA suggests he's the best athlete in the organization and had a good Sally season. Can't have too many 19 year old uber-athlete first rounders in your organization.
With the glaring hole at SS, I'm disappointed Iglesias isn't in the deal, but oh well. Hoyer has been nothing short of spectacular since coming to SD, so I'll trust his judgement on this one.
Sleeping King
Footballguy
The "none of them really mattera anyway" was said in jest. More of a rooting for Westmoreland to overcome his health problems. But to be honest in the Sox immediate future Fuentes is a non factor, well except that he lands them Gonzo. He is still likely 4 years away from having even a chance to compete for a job at Fenway. Now for the Padres it's a completely different story and probably the one you are more concerned with from your icon. Rizzo does have a spot at 1B. Kelly doesn't have four guys making 10+million ahead of him in the rotation and Fuentes doesn't play for an team that will likely spend 15 million on an OF this offseason. It could certainly turn out to be a good haul in the future but Boston doesn't have the luxury of waiting three years to be good. The fan base pays way too much for tickets and they rely too much on TV revenue to not be in the playoffs.
Balco
Footballguy
I saw that rumor, but I doubt it.The Pads need to deal Bell as well, they have a ton of options to close in San Diego, and Bell should fetch some nice prospects if they deal him.
