This is a strategy for teams that get stuck with the middle picks (6-10 slots) this year in a standard snake draft, which are by far the worst picks because you miss out on the elite RBs, and the tier of top tier WRs and RB2 type players is so deep and tightly bunched that you don't really have a chance to gain any ground on the teams picking at the beginning of round 1. If you follow the most common draft strategy and go RB-RB-WR, you are going to get creamed, because the teams getting Tomlinson, Jackson, etc. will have signifigantly better production at RB1, a comparable RB2 and an earlier chance to grab a WR1 if they follow that same format. Therefore, to succeed from a middle slot where the odds are stacked against you, you need to use a more innovative approach. Hence, the Portis strategy.
This is based on the fact that Clinton Portis has been going late in the 3rd round to early in the 4th round in most recent drafts/mock drafts that I have participated in. When healthy, he is an elite talent, and top 10 or possibly top 5 back. People are obviously scared by the lingering knee tendinitis that has held him out of training camp practices until recently and also by the presence of Betts, who emerged late last year and has the talent to start. The worry of injury and the dreaded RBBC is causing Portis' draft value to fall by the week. However, if you can plan your draft in such a way that you get both Portis and Betts, I think that there is enormous value potential there to allow an owner to overcome a terrible draft slot.
1. The Redskins have one of the best offensive lines and run blocking in the league and Al Saunders going into his second year as Offensive Coordinator, the system should continue to click and probably perform better than it did last year. The system did seem to start to click late in the year when Betts exploded the last 6 games of 2006 and was a top 5 fantasy RB for the stretch run.
2. The Redskins ran the ball 443 times last year. This is despite having a team that did not hold a lot of leads and was frequently playing from behind. In Gibbs' 3 years since coming out of retirement, they have ranked near the top of the NFL in rushing attempts each year. If anything, the number of rushing attempts should increase this year because they have 2 excellent backs and an inexperienced QB. If the Redskins improve at all, say to an 8-8 team instead of a 5-11 team, it's not unreasonable that the rushing attempts could rise to around 500.
4. Throughout his career, Gibbs has always shown a strong preference for avoiding RBBC and going with a single lead back that carries the load. If Portis is able to carry the load, there's every reason to believe he will get 75% of the carries. If he does not prove healthy, Betts has shown he is more than competent to carry the load and be a top 10 RB, meaning that you are totally covered.
5. On the off chance they do decide to go with a commitee approach, there will likely be enough rushing attempts to give both backs 250-300 carries, meaning that you have a downside of around 1100-1300 yards each.
Therefore, here is the draft strategy I would propose for a team using the Portis strategy:
Round 1: Draft the best RB left on the board.
Round 2: Ignore the RB position. Take an elite WR; in most drafts I have seen, either Steve Smith or Chad Johnson are available at this point, but you can go with another elite WR if they are both gone. If Peyton Manning does slide through to your 2nd round pick, take him here.
Round 3: Draft Portis. Every mock draft/league draft I have done in the last 3 weeks, he has been there until at least pick 3.5
Round 4: Draft the best remaining WR on your board. Typically one of Lee Evans, Marques Colston or Andre Johnson will be there by this pick. If for some reason Carson Palmer or Antonio Gates slid through to this point (highly unlikely), you can take one of them instead.
Round 5: Draft the best RB on your board. You don't want to go with Betts here, because the value of the handcuff does not overcome the lost potential of reaching for him at this point. Instead, you are better off covering yourself with a startable #3 RB both for bye weeks and in case Betts doesn't last until where you've planned to take him. Typically, I have seen some of the following slip in most drafts: Thomas Jones, Ahman Green, Jamal Lewis, Deuce McAllister, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Julius Jones
Round 6: Either go WR or QB. If one of the clear top 6 QBs falls to here (Manning, Palmer, Brady and Brees will almost certainly be gone, but I have seen Bulger and McNabb sometimes slide to this point), take him. Otherwise, go with the best remaining WR on your board. I have seen Calvin Johnson and Santana Moss slide to this point often, and both would be very nice values. Taking any non-Gates TE this early would be a major reach, because there is so little seperation between the 2-9 TEs.
Round 7: If all goes well, Betts will be here, and you take him. If not, don't panic and just take the best QB/WR/RB value as needed.
After 7 rounds, you would have a team that looks something like this:
RB: Willie Parker, Clinton Portis, Adrian Peterson, Ladell Betts
WR: Steve Smith, Lee Evans, Calvin Johnson
Then go with the best available QB in round 8 (someone like Cutler, Young, Hasselbeck, Kitna, etc will fall to there), and finish with whatever remains of the top 9 TEs the following round, and you have a power house team. Portis/Betts gives you the equivalent production of a 2nd top 10 RB (sort of like having 2 top 10 picks), you get a great #3 RB, an elite WR and a second top 12 WR, and then are in position to add a top 10 QB and top 9 TE.
Championship!
This is based on the fact that Clinton Portis has been going late in the 3rd round to early in the 4th round in most recent drafts/mock drafts that I have participated in. When healthy, he is an elite talent, and top 10 or possibly top 5 back. People are obviously scared by the lingering knee tendinitis that has held him out of training camp practices until recently and also by the presence of Betts, who emerged late last year and has the talent to start. The worry of injury and the dreaded RBBC is causing Portis' draft value to fall by the week. However, if you can plan your draft in such a way that you get both Portis and Betts, I think that there is enormous value potential there to allow an owner to overcome a terrible draft slot.
1. The Redskins have one of the best offensive lines and run blocking in the league and Al Saunders going into his second year as Offensive Coordinator, the system should continue to click and probably perform better than it did last year. The system did seem to start to click late in the year when Betts exploded the last 6 games of 2006 and was a top 5 fantasy RB for the stretch run.
2. The Redskins ran the ball 443 times last year. This is despite having a team that did not hold a lot of leads and was frequently playing from behind. In Gibbs' 3 years since coming out of retirement, they have ranked near the top of the NFL in rushing attempts each year. If anything, the number of rushing attempts should increase this year because they have 2 excellent backs and an inexperienced QB. If the Redskins improve at all, say to an 8-8 team instead of a 5-11 team, it's not unreasonable that the rushing attempts could rise to around 500.
4. Throughout his career, Gibbs has always shown a strong preference for avoiding RBBC and going with a single lead back that carries the load. If Portis is able to carry the load, there's every reason to believe he will get 75% of the carries. If he does not prove healthy, Betts has shown he is more than competent to carry the load and be a top 10 RB, meaning that you are totally covered.
5. On the off chance they do decide to go with a commitee approach, there will likely be enough rushing attempts to give both backs 250-300 carries, meaning that you have a downside of around 1100-1300 yards each.
Therefore, here is the draft strategy I would propose for a team using the Portis strategy:
Round 1: Draft the best RB left on the board.
Round 2: Ignore the RB position. Take an elite WR; in most drafts I have seen, either Steve Smith or Chad Johnson are available at this point, but you can go with another elite WR if they are both gone. If Peyton Manning does slide through to your 2nd round pick, take him here.
Round 3: Draft Portis. Every mock draft/league draft I have done in the last 3 weeks, he has been there until at least pick 3.5
Round 4: Draft the best remaining WR on your board. Typically one of Lee Evans, Marques Colston or Andre Johnson will be there by this pick. If for some reason Carson Palmer or Antonio Gates slid through to this point (highly unlikely), you can take one of them instead.
Round 5: Draft the best RB on your board. You don't want to go with Betts here, because the value of the handcuff does not overcome the lost potential of reaching for him at this point. Instead, you are better off covering yourself with a startable #3 RB both for bye weeks and in case Betts doesn't last until where you've planned to take him. Typically, I have seen some of the following slip in most drafts: Thomas Jones, Ahman Green, Jamal Lewis, Deuce McAllister, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Julius Jones
Round 6: Either go WR or QB. If one of the clear top 6 QBs falls to here (Manning, Palmer, Brady and Brees will almost certainly be gone, but I have seen Bulger and McNabb sometimes slide to this point), take him. Otherwise, go with the best remaining WR on your board. I have seen Calvin Johnson and Santana Moss slide to this point often, and both would be very nice values. Taking any non-Gates TE this early would be a major reach, because there is so little seperation between the 2-9 TEs.
Round 7: If all goes well, Betts will be here, and you take him. If not, don't panic and just take the best QB/WR/RB value as needed.
After 7 rounds, you would have a team that looks something like this:
RB: Willie Parker, Clinton Portis, Adrian Peterson, Ladell Betts
WR: Steve Smith, Lee Evans, Calvin Johnson
Then go with the best available QB in round 8 (someone like Cutler, Young, Hasselbeck, Kitna, etc will fall to there), and finish with whatever remains of the top 9 TEs the following round, and you have a power house team. Portis/Betts gives you the equivalent production of a 2nd top 10 RB (sort of like having 2 top 10 picks), you get a great #3 RB, an elite WR and a second top 12 WR, and then are in position to add a top 10 QB and top 9 TE.
Championship!
Henry is long gone and Portis has more upside than every guy on that list.I know it is wrong to advocate defensive drafting, but sometimes it is necessary especially if it can also be a HUGE benefit to you... if Portis stays healthy for the year and the guy with LT or SJax jumped on him Late 2nd/Early 3rd, the league could be over before it even begins. You gotta keep that on your mind.LTPortisHarrisonbetter start than yourMaroney?Steve SmithRB2 coming in Round 3? Edge?Just compare those 2 teams and tell me who is championship bound... The time to swing the Portis steal was last week and the month prior. Now that the tendinitis has magically calmed down you really need to adjust your rankings (including dated ADPs) accordingly.
