The Giants had 598 passing attempts in 2016; 623 in 2015; 607 in 2014. It seems reasonable to assume 600.
Last year, WRs had 370 targets; RBs had 114; and TEs had 113. (All numbers from PFR.)
Jennings is gone and had 42 of the RB targets, but I think most of those will be absorbed by Perkins/Vereen. I'll go with 110 RB targets. On the one hand, in 2015, the Giants had 129 RB targets, and Vereen himself had 81; but, on the other hand, they have more talent at WR/TE now, and some of those 2015 RB targets were likely due to poor options behind Beckham at the other positions. I'll call it a wash. So 110 for RBs.
Last year, Beckham had 169 targets, Shepard had 105 as a rookie, Cruz had 72, and the rest of the WRs combined for 24. Now Cruz has been replaced by Marshall and Shepard has a year of experience. Marshall had 128 targets in 15 games last season and 173 the year before with the Jets. He won't get that volume with the Giants, but the point is that his age (33) does not seem to be a reason to think he will not be productive and demand 100+ targets. On the other hand, his productivity dropped off a lot from 2015 to 2016, so perhaps 100 targets is better for him at this stage of his career.
Last year, Tye had 70 targets, Donnell had 22, and Adams had 21. Donnell is gone, but Tye and Adams remain.
How to divide up WR and TE targets is tough to project, especially since Engram could really eat some WR targets as well as TE targets. Perhaps something like this:
- Beckham 150
- Marshall 100
- Shepard 85
- Other WRs 25
- Engram 85
- Tye 25
- Other TEs 20
Of course, all of this assumes full health, which presumably won't be the case, so we know there will be fluctuation from a reasonable starting point, we just don't know who will miss time.
I'm sure some will say that one or more of Beckham, Marshall, Shepard will have more targets. Those probably either have to come from the RBs or from more passing attempts. (Or injuries, as noted above.)
I also might be a bit low on targets for TEs other than Engram, since he is a rookie and Tye and Adams combined for 91 targets last season.
Anyway, I think 85 targets for Engram could mean 55-60 receptions, 600-700 yards, 3-7 TDs. Would that be good enough to win the rookie TE fantasy points title? There is a good chance it would be, especially if the TDs are on the higher end of the range. The main threat to that is probably the addition of Marshall to combine with Beckham as two strong red zone threats at WR.