The Running Back Position (1 Viewer)

[duaneok66]

Cedric Benson = Top 5 running back for the next 3 years.

While I can see Benson putting up good numbers rushing, I think his lack of receiving/blocking ability will keep him off of the field on 3rd and long, in all likelihood. Wolfe/Hester/Peterson will all be more likely to play on passing downs, which will limit Benson's upside and ability to post top five fantasy numbers.

I think his BLOCKING is what keeps him on the bench on 3rd down; he did okay in the receiving department at Texas . . .

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

I don't think it's a bad idea at all. After all, for consistent production every game all season well above the worst starter, Manning is the safest VBD pick. IN a league with fairly standard scoring he was 60 FP better than the QB2 (Brees) and 170 FP better than 12th QB and 175 better than the 14th QB. Last year FWP offered only 120 FP better than the worst starter in a 12-teamer (julius Jones, RB24), and 140 better than worst starter for a 14-teamer (Mike Bell, RB28).By last year's numbers, Manning is the best VBD pick at 6.

The probelm I have with taking Manning at #6 is that if one of your top 2 RB's busts, you're team will most definitely struggle, as you're most likely stuck with an RB2 or RB3 as your #1 RB. I'd prefer to go with a pretty safe RB at pick 6 (FWP or Rudi, for example) and build around that. It's much easier to find QB's late that end up in the top 10. Last year, these guys ended up in the top 10 QB's (in my league), and they were had for a bag of rocks on draft day (i.e. round 7 or later):#2 Brees#6 Kitna#8 Favre#9 Rivers#10 RothlisbergerOn the other hand, only one RB in last year's top 10 could have been had after round 7:#7 MJ DrewConclusion - if you take Manning in round 1, your RB projections for the guys you take need to be almost perfect. One the other hand, if you wait on a QB and take 2 later in the draft, chances are one will pan out as a legit QB1 on your team, if not a stud.

The opportunity cost of taking Manning at 6 is far higher than going RB/RB or RB/WR and taking a QB later. You basically have to hit a grand slam on either your RB1 or RB2 (think Gore last year, LJ in '05) to have it pay off.

 

[veto87]

IMO Henry won't be in the top 10 and won't come close to top 3. At least Gore has seen #4. Henry saw #8 in buffalo, but that was 5 years ago. When was the last time Henry played a full 16 game season? 5 years ago shocking.gif

Henry's lack of a 16 game season has as much to do with suspension and being inactive for Jeff Fisher then injury, so let's toss that out the window. SImilarly, he is in a system that has produced some extraordinary fantasy seasons out of the backfield.

I agree but of the 9 seasons including Terrell Davis' bustout , the last 2 seasons have been RBBC and a headache for fantasy owners. Travis Henry is 29 in October , 12 Million guaranteed Hopefully he has 1 good season left before 30 hopefully we'll see a return to the Denver RB = 1500 yrds and 15 TD year Record

1998 14-2 Terrell Davis 2,008yrds 21 td

1999 6-10 Olandis Gary 1159 yards 7 TDS

2000 11-5 Mike Anderson 1487 yrds 15 TD

2001 8-8 Terrell Davis 701 yrds 0 TD Mike Anderson 678 yrds 4 TD

2002 9-7 Clinton Portis 1508 yrds 15 TD

2003 10-6 Clinton Portis 1591 yrds 14 TD

2004 10-6 Reuben Droughns 1,240 yrds 6 TD

2005 13-3 Mike Anderson 1014 yrds 12 TD Tatum Bell 921 yrds 8 TD

2006 9-7 Tatum Bell 1025 Yrds 2 TD Mike Bell 677 yrds 8 TD

 

[Banger]

IMO Henry won't be in the top 10 and won't come close to top 3. At least Gore has seen #4. Henry saw #8 in buffalo, but that was 5 years ago. When was the last time Henry played a full 16 game season? 5 years ago shocking.gif

Henry's lack of a 16 game season has as much to do with suspension and being inactive for Jeff Fisher then injury, so let's toss that out the window. SImilarly, he is in a system that has produced some extraordinary fantasy seasons out of the backfield.

I agree but of the 9 seasons including Terrell Davis' bustout , the last 2 seasons have been RBBC and a headache for fantasy owners. Travis Henry is 29 in October , 12 Million guaranteed Hopefully he has 1 good season left before 30 hopefully we'll see a return to the Denver RB = 1500 yrds and 15 TD year Record

1998 14-2 Terrell Davis 2,008yrds 21 td

1999 6-10 Olandis Gary 1159 yards 7 TDS

2000 11-5 Mike Anderson 1487 yrds 15 TD

2001 8-8 Terrell Davis 701 yrds 0 TD Mike Anderson 678 yrds 4 TD

2002 9-7 Clinton Portis 1508 yrds 15 TD

2003 10-6 Clinton Portis 1591 yrds 14 TD

2004 10-6 Reuben Droughns 1,240 yrds 6 TD

2005 13-3 Mike Anderson 1014 yrds 12 TD Tatum Bell 921 yrds 8 TD

2006 9-7 Tatum Bell 1025 Yrds 2 TD Mike Bell 677 yrds 8 TD

Those last two years they didn't have a guy that could clearly take the roll and run with it. Anderson was a grinder and Bell offered some speed/explosiveness, the same thing last year with Mike Bell being a worse version of Anderson. I think the Bronc's knew that wasn't working and went out for the first time that I can remember and signed a free agent RB to a large contract. That RBBC mess led them to where they are now. Make no mistake Henry is the man there.

 

[Tybeeman]

Biggest disappointments relative to ADP2. McGahee: ADP around 10th overall and two seasons removed from a truly consistent, productive one. The Ravens didn't do much to help Lewis last year and I would be surprised if McGahee does much better. I consider him as risky if not more than the following backs: Edge, Benson, Bush, and Maroney

I posted this previously in the McGahee thread....I've read McGahee's name in a number of threads over the past few weeks in player to avoid/overvalued/ranking threads and a number of people are down on him and I'm having a hard time understanding why. Right now his ADP is RB13 and last year Jamal finished RB16 while averaging 3.6 ypc with 9 td's. I think most people agree that McGahee is an upgrade over Lewis at this point, the Ravens spent 2 1st day draft picks to improve their line (Ogden is back), there's talk of getting McGahee involved in the passing game (which Lewis never was) and he's a lock to get at least 300+ carries if healthy (there's no threat to take carries on the roster). Take the lowball #'s of 300-1170 (3.9 his career avg on Bills) - 8 tds - 200 rcv yards = 185 points which was good for 14th last year (and 7 points away from 10th). If he gets more carries (which is likely), and/or more receiving yards (possible), and/or more TD's (likely) and/or improves on the 3.9 ypc (likely IMO with a better line) he will finish higher. In my opinion he's being drafted at his downside and there are several reasons that he may outperform it making him a very safe value play. I know he's not a popular player for his past work ethic/learning plays/trashing Buffalo/etc but I think people are letting that cloud the very good situation he's in.ETA..McGahee also has the 2nd easiest strength of schedule (accdg to Dodds article) with 6 "easy" opponents and projected to be 15% easier than last year.

Boy I'm lovin' this post. McGahee will dominate this year in my opinion. I've got a serious gut-feeling about him really "breaking out".

It appears that the stars are aligned and not many are taking notice...

You're taking words right out of my mouth. I agree 110%. McGahee hated playing in Buffalo and then he gets traded to a team with fellow UM alumni. He goes from a frown on his face to a huge smile and weight of his shoulders. Huge boost of confidence. Look good, Feel good,....PLAY GOOD. Rush the football, Rush the football. Baltimore Ravens is going to be unreal. Jamal Lewis looked like he had concrete for feet last year. This is going to be something. I'm just a little excited,... sorry.

I bet Willis is excited to get to Baltimore. The pickens for the ladies in Buffalo had to be pretty slim, now he'll be trolling for fine ladies in the Harbor ....Potential for even more little Willis' running around. I couldn't resist

 

[Devilsden2001]

IMO Henry won't be in the top 10 and won't come close to top 3. At least Gore has seen #4. Henry saw #8 in buffalo, but that was 5 years ago. When was the last time Henry played a full 16 game season? 5 years ago shocking.gif

Henry's lack of a 16 game season has as much to do with suspension and being inactive for Jeff Fisher then injury, so let's toss that out the window. SImilarly, he is in a system that has produced some extraordinary fantasy seasons out of the backfield.

Not playing a full season is not playing a full season. Suspension is just as likely or more likely to happen than injury IMO. That system has produced in the past, yes....but those past offensive teams were better than this years offensive team. If Cutler struggles the offense will also.

You are correct about one point, not playing a full season is not playing a full season. Henry will have been clean for two years shortly so the likelyhood of him getting suspended is lower. Yes he is 29 but he has had limited carries for two years so there is not as much wear on the tires. He has been sucessful whenever he has been able to carry the load, he did it with a subpar line in Buffalo and an even worse line in Tenn. He is now going to a team that has made unknown runningbacks a household name. Orlandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Ruben Droughns. All of these backs have been successful and once leaving Denver have not seen the field or the success again (Droughns being the exception). IMHO, Cutler is a huge step up from Plummer, yes this is only his second year but he was developing nicely last year and that trend should continue. Denver also added one of the best blocking tight ends in the game this year in Daniel Graham. That will give Henry a chance at the corner. The final point about Henry that I like is that he plays through pain. In his best year in Buffalo the played the final 3-4 games with a stess fracture in his leg.I have Henry ranked at number 5 behind, Tomlinson, Jackson,LJ, and Gore. Others will argue that Bush, Addai, Alexander, and Maroney should all be taken ahead of Henry. The problem that I have taking them ahead of him is that Bush and Addai were effective this year but have not carried the load for a full season, Alexander is coming of an injury and Seattle is not the team is was two years ago, and Maroney is coming off shoulder surgery and there are questions surrounding his durabiliy. I would much rather have a RB that has shown that he can succeed when given the change on a team known for productive RB's and someone that will play through the pain.I see 1500 yards and 12-15TD's for Henry this year and will justify his draft possition.

 

[Liquid Tension]

We all know the top 5 RB's (in no particular order: Tomlinson, S.Jackson, L.Johnson, F.Gore, S.Alexander), but which RB's after that are you excited about ? There seems to be a huge drop-off after the first 5 and some of these guys you just don't know what you are going to get. A lot of these guys are becoming feature backs, some are dependable but not spectacular....

If you are picking in the 2nd part of the Round 1 in a 12 person draft, which RB's stand out to you ???? Do you consider taking a Peyton Manning or a best WR on the board given that the RB position, while filled with promise, looks to be a guessing game as to which guys will step up.

***

- Brian Westbrook: Very good RB, but you have to deal with him being questionable every week. Not a load back, but his past production makes that a non-issue. Probably the safest of the 'other' choices along with Rudi Johnson.

- Rudi Johnson: Consistent, but not spectacular. He'll usually get close to 100 or score a TD. Very safe choice.

- Willie Parker: Broke out last season...Does he stay at that level or fall back some ?

- Joseph Addai: He may be the most likely of all the RB's to in the next tier or two to break out with him being the clear #1 guy in Indy now with Rhodes gone.

- Clinton Portis: How much does LaDell Betts around hurt him ?

- Laurence Maroney: Becomes the feature back with Dillon gone...

- Cedric Benson: Becomes the feature back with Thomas Jones gone...Can he stay healthy ?

- Reggie Bush: Needs to break more of his touches as Deuce will handle most of the load.

- Maurice Jones-Drew: Can he repeat last year's performance ? How does Fragile Fred factor in here ?

- Travis Henry: Denver RB's usually step it up....Will he be any different ?

- Willis McGahee: Will he ever get above 4 yards per carry for any length of time ??

- Ronnie Brown: Breakout or bust ???

- Cadillac Williams: Rookie standout or sophmore jinx ?

- Thomas Jones/Ahman Green: Steady, but hardly specatcular....

- Deuce McCallister: Similar to Rudi Johnson, but comes with Bush and some past injuries.

***

Thoughts on the 2nd/3rd tier RB's ? Who breaks out, who doesn't ?

The clear choice from 5 on (and maybe sooner) is Manning. I started the thread last year that Manning was the pick from 5 on and got berated (except for the smart people). Same thing again this year taking a flyer on a RB is just not smart in the 1st round if you can get Manning. I had plenty of ammo sent my way as to why I am dumb, but you would be wrong again. Ask all those people who took Caddy, RBrown, McGahee, Portis, etc... who could have taken Manning how happy they were. Look at the projections from last year (and the previous years) and look at who how many people took mediocre RB's before taking Manning. Ouch. It really surprises me that some very smart people just don't get it???

You can say this about ANY player that busted or didn't meet projections. If those RB's you had mentioned lived up to their draft position, they would have had more value than Manning. To state the above is nothing but Monday-morning quarterbacking. This year, Willie Parker is slotted for #6. There's no way Im passing on him for Manning.

How in the world is it Monday morning QBing when it was stated BEFORE the season. Sometimes I don't think anyone wants to learn or search for the truth, they just want to be right

 

[ceo3west]

We all know the top 5 RB's (in no particular order: Tomlinson, S.Jackson, L.Johnson, F.Gore, S.Alexander), but which RB's after that are you excited about ? There seems to be a huge drop-off after the first 5 and some of these guys you just don't know what you are going to get. A lot of these guys are becoming feature backs, some are dependable but not spectacular....

If you are picking in the 2nd part of the Round 1 in a 12 person draft, which RB's stand out to you ???? Do you consider taking a Peyton Manning or a best WR on the board given that the RB position, while filled with promise, looks to be a guessing game as to which guys will step up.

***

- Brian Westbrook: Very good RB, but you have to deal with him being questionable every week. Not a load back, but his past production makes that a non-issue. Probably the safest of the 'other' choices along with Rudi Johnson.

- Rudi Johnson: Consistent, but not spectacular. He'll usually get close to 100 or score a TD. Very safe choice.

- Willie Parker: Broke out last season...Does he stay at that level or fall back some ?

- Joseph Addai: He may be the most likely of all the RB's to in the next tier or two to break out with him being the clear #1 guy in Indy now with Rhodes gone.

- Clinton Portis: How much does LaDell Betts around hurt him ?

- Laurence Maroney: Becomes the feature back with Dillon gone...

- Cedric Benson: Becomes the feature back with Thomas Jones gone...Can he stay healthy ?

- Reggie Bush: Needs to break more of his touches as Deuce will handle most of the load.

- Maurice Jones-Drew: Can he repeat last year's performance ? How does Fragile Fred factor in here ?

- Travis Henry: Denver RB's usually step it up....Will he be any different ?

- Willis McGahee: Will he ever get above 4 yards per carry for any length of time ??

- Ronnie Brown: Breakout or bust ???

- Cadillac Williams: Rookie standout or sophmore jinx ?

- Thomas Jones/Ahman Green: Steady, but hardly specatcular....

- Deuce McCallister: Similar to Rudi Johnson, but comes with Bush and some past injuries.

***

Thoughts on the 2nd/3rd tier RB's ? Who breaks out, who doesn't ?

The clear choice from 5 on (and maybe sooner) is Manning. I started the thread last year that Manning was the pick from 5 on and got berated (except for the smart people). Same thing again this year taking a flyer on a RB is just not smart in the 1st round if you can get Manning. I had plenty of ammo sent my way as to why I am dumb, but you would be wrong again. Ask all those people who took Caddy, RBrown, McGahee, Portis, etc... who could have taken Manning how happy they were. Look at the projections from last year (and the previous years) and look at who how many people took mediocre RB's before taking Manning. Ouch. It really surprises me that some very smart people just don't get it???

You can say this about ANY player that busted or didn't meet projections. If those RB's you had mentioned lived up to their draft position, they would have had more value than Manning. To state the above is nothing but Monday-morning quarterbacking. This year, Willie Parker is slotted for #6. There's no way Im passing on him for Manning.

How in the world is it Monday morning QBing when it was stated BEFORE the season. Sometimes I don't think anyone wants to learn or search for the truth, they just want to be right

So using your logic, I should take Manning ahead of FWP or Rudi, whoever is my #6 projected RB. Is this correct?

 

[Liquid Tension]

IMO Henry won't be in the top 10 and won't come close to top 3. At least Gore has seen #4. Henry saw #8 in buffalo, but that was 5 years ago. When was the last time Henry played a full 16 game season? 5 years ago shocking.gif

Henry's lack of a 16 game season has as much to do with suspension and being inactive for Jeff Fisher then injury, so let's toss that out the window. SImilarly, he is in a system that has produced some extraordinary fantasy seasons out of the backfield.

Not playing a full season is not playing a full season. Suspension is just as likely or more likely to happen than injury IMO. That system has produced in the past, yes....but those past offensive teams were better than this years offensive team. If Cutler struggles the offense will also.

You are correct about one point, not playing a full season is not playing a full season. Henry will have been clean for two years shortly so the likelyhood of him getting suspended is lower. Yes he is 29 but he has had limited carries for two years so there is not as much wear on the tires. He has been sucessful whenever he has been able to carry the load, he did it with a subpar line in Buffalo and an even worse line in Tenn. He is now going to a team that has made unknown runningbacks a household name. Orlandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Ruben Droughns. All of these backs have been successful and once leaving Denver have not seen the field or the success again (Droughns being the exception). IMHO, Cutler is a huge step up from Plummer, yes this is only his second year but he was developing nicely last year and that trend should continue. Denver also added one of the best blocking tight ends in the game this year in Daniel Graham. That will give Henry a chance at the corner. The final point about Henry that I like is that he plays through pain. In his best year in Buffalo the played the final 3-4 games with a stess fracture in his leg.I have Henry ranked at number 5 behind, Tomlinson, Jackson,LJ, and Gore. Others will argue that Bush, Addai, Alexander, and Maroney should all be taken ahead of Henry. The problem that I have taking them ahead of him is that Bush and Addai were effective this year but have not carried the load for a full season, Alexander is coming of an injury and Seattle is not the team is was two years ago, and Maroney is coming off shoulder surgery and there are questions surrounding his durabiliy. I would much rather have a RB that has shown that he can succeed when given the change on a team known for productive RB's and someone that will play through the pain.I see 1500 yards and 12-15TD's for Henry this year and will justify his draft possition.

If Henry were such a talent then why was he ranked so low before last year? It is because people look at the previous year and expect the same...If you remember one of the main issues Henry had in Buffalo was he was a Tiki Barber type fumbler. Maybe he is cured, but that is an issue that put Tatum Bell in Shanahans dog house and why a guy with such a good YPC didn't carry the rock that much.If Henry stays healthy and doesn't fumble he will be a very solid RB, but if I am drafting I take Manning without question before I take Henry.

 

[Liquid Tension]

We all know the top 5 RB's (in no particular order: Tomlinson, S.Jackson, L.Johnson, F.Gore, S.Alexander), but which RB's after that are you excited about ? There seems to be a huge drop-off after the first 5 and some of these guys you just don't know what you are going to get. A lot of these guys are becoming feature backs, some are dependable but not spectacular....

If you are picking in the 2nd part of the Round 1 in a 12 person draft, which RB's stand out to you ???? Do you consider taking a Peyton Manning or a best WR on the board given that the RB position, while filled with promise, looks to be a guessing game as to which guys will step up.

***

- Brian Westbrook: Very good RB, but you have to deal with him being questionable every week. Not a load back, but his past production makes that a non-issue. Probably the safest of the 'other' choices along with Rudi Johnson.

- Rudi Johnson: Consistent, but not spectacular. He'll usually get close to 100 or score a TD. Very safe choice.

- Willie Parker: Broke out last season...Does he stay at that level or fall back some ?

- Joseph Addai: He may be the most likely of all the RB's to in the next tier or two to break out with him being the clear #1 guy in Indy now with Rhodes gone.

- Clinton Portis: How much does LaDell Betts around hurt him ?

- Laurence Maroney: Becomes the feature back with Dillon gone...

- Cedric Benson: Becomes the feature back with Thomas Jones gone...Can he stay healthy ?

- Reggie Bush: Needs to break more of his touches as Deuce will handle most of the load.

- Maurice Jones-Drew: Can he repeat last year's performance ? How does Fragile Fred factor in here ?

- Travis Henry: Denver RB's usually step it up....Will he be any different ?

- Willis McGahee: Will he ever get above 4 yards per carry for any length of time ??

- Ronnie Brown: Breakout or bust ???

- Cadillac Williams: Rookie standout or sophmore jinx ?

- Thomas Jones/Ahman Green: Steady, but hardly specatcular....

- Deuce McCallister: Similar to Rudi Johnson, but comes with Bush and some past injuries.

***

Thoughts on the 2nd/3rd tier RB's ? Who breaks out, who doesn't ?

The clear choice from 5 on (and maybe sooner) is Manning. I started the thread last year that Manning was the pick from 5 on and got berated (except for the smart people). Same thing again this year taking a flyer on a RB is just not smart in the 1st round if you can get Manning. I had plenty of ammo sent my way as to why I am dumb, but you would be wrong again. Ask all those people who took Caddy, RBrown, McGahee, Portis, etc... who could have taken Manning how happy they were. Look at the projections from last year (and the previous years) and look at who how many people took mediocre RB's before taking Manning. Ouch. It really surprises me that some very smart people just don't get it???

You can say this about ANY player that busted or didn't meet projections. If those RB's you had mentioned lived up to their draft position, they would have had more value than Manning. To state the above is nothing but Monday-morning quarterbacking. This year, Willie Parker is slotted for #6. There's no way Im passing on him for Manning.

How in the world is it Monday morning QBing when it was stated BEFORE the season. Sometimes I don't think anyone wants to learn or search for the truth, they just want to be right

So using your logic, I should take Manning ahead of FWP or Rudi, whoever is my #6 projected RB. Is this correct?

Your scoring rules dictate my answer but assuming the standard 1-20 and 6 for passing TD the answer is YES. VBD agrees as well.

 

[Two Deep]

tier 1:

LJ, LT, S. Jackson, Trav Henry

tier 2:

Rudi

SA

Parker

Addai

tier 3:

Ronnie Brown

Edge

nearly 1/2 of all rb's in the top 10 one season,will not be back there the following season.

some of last years top 10 RB's in rushing , are mentioned above.

I'm removing Gore, Chester Taylor, Westbrook, Barber ( obviously) from the list. Bush doesn't make it, because he's nothing more than a glorified WR, imo..defenses will figure him out..he doesn't run the ball very much, thats why they have Deuece there..

Henry is going to be a top 3 RB by the time its all said and done. Gore has seen his upside , nowhere to go but down, injuries and a new coaching staff are cause for concern. Westbrook's first season rushing over 1,000 yards, might be his last for a while. Not sure McNabb can hold up ,if he can't, Kolb will not carry this team.

Edgerrin James should see a big spike in offensive production,and the coaching staff will lean on him, big time. They play one of the easiest SOS's against the run in 2007, and have MANY offensive weapons to keep defenses on their heels. The final eight games of 2006 is where James really began to get things going, and I think he carries that momentum into 2007 with this new coaching staff that is hell bent on improving the ground game of the Cards. Last season, Henry rushed for 1211 yards, finishing 10th. Edge should get those numbers this year, good enough for a top 10 finish.

Ronnie Brown is a one man show in Miami, the team is WR-challenged, the TE is a bust ( Dave Martin), Ginn has foot problems and is only a rookie, Chambers has one good season to his name.the coaches love to use one RB, and one RB only. Brown, while not as good as advertised when he entered the NFL, has still managing a respectable 4.3 per carry avg. He has great hands, and with a coaching staff that loves to throw to the RB,Brown should easily catch 60-70 balls.

He's one of a small handful of RB's not embroiled in a RBBC, and that alone makes him a top 10 contender..

Fred Taylor is on the wrong side of 31..MJD would easily make the top 10, if Taylor wasn't hanging around,hawking carries..

I don't know why people say this....You don't think he can at least repeat his last year numbers and score more TDs??

IMO Henry won't be in the top 10 and won't come close to top 3. At least Gore has seen #4. Henry saw #8 in buffalo, but that was 5 years ago. When was the last time Henry played a full 16 game season? 5 years ago

When was the last time that Henry played for arguably the best rushing offense in the league? Despite having absolute garbage at the RB position last year (banged up T. Bell and below avg M. Bell) the Bronc's still finished 8th in rushing with 2152-12. In '05 they finished 2nd with 2539-25 and in '04 they were 4th with 2333-13. Henry is better than any back they've had on their roster over the past few years and he's going to be the guy there. Top 10 is a lock IMO if he stays healthy.

Who came off the street started only 3 games rushed for 677 yds on 157 atmps. and scored 8tds? Oh yeah thats right the below average absolute piece of garbage Mike Bell.

 

[Banger]

tier 1:

LJ, LT, S. Jackson, Trav Henry

tier 2:

Rudi

SA

Parker

Addai

tier 3:

Ronnie Brown

Edge

nearly 1/2 of all rb's in the top 10 one season,will not be back there the following season.

some of last years top 10 RB's in rushing , are mentioned above.

I'm removing Gore, Chester Taylor, Westbrook, Barber ( obviously) from the list. Bush doesn't make it, because he's nothing more than a glorified WR, imo..defenses will figure him out..he doesn't run the ball very much, thats why they have Deuece there..

Henry is going to be a top 3 RB by the time its all said and done. Gore has seen his upside , nowhere to go but down, injuries and a new coaching staff are cause for concern. Westbrook's first season rushing over 1,000 yards, might be his last for a while. Not sure McNabb can hold up ,if he can't, Kolb will not carry this team.

Edgerrin James should see a big spike in offensive production,and the coaching staff will lean on him, big time. They play one of the easiest SOS's against the run in 2007, and have MANY offensive weapons to keep defenses on their heels. The final eight games of 2006 is where James really began to get things going, and I think he carries that momentum into 2007 with this new coaching staff that is hell bent on improving the ground game of the Cards. Last season, Henry rushed for 1211 yards, finishing 10th. Edge should get those numbers this year, good enough for a top 10 finish.

Ronnie Brown is a one man show in Miami, the team is WR-challenged, the TE is a bust ( Dave Martin), Ginn has foot problems and is only a rookie, Chambers has one good season to his name.the coaches love to use one RB, and one RB only. Brown, while not as good as advertised when he entered the NFL, has still managing a respectable 4.3 per carry avg. He has great hands, and with a coaching staff that loves to throw to the RB,Brown should easily catch 60-70 balls.

He's one of a small handful of RB's not embroiled in a RBBC, and that alone makes him a top 10 contender..

Fred Taylor is on the wrong side of 31..MJD would easily make the top 10, if Taylor wasn't hanging around,hawking carries..

I don't know why people say this....You don't think he can at least repeat his last year numbers and score more TDs??

IMO Henry won't be in the top 10 and won't come close to top 3. At least Gore has seen #4. Henry saw #8 in buffalo, but that was 5 years ago. When was the last time Henry played a full 16 game season? 5 years ago

When was the last time that Henry played for arguably the best rushing offense in the league? Despite having absolute garbage at the RB position last year (banged up T. Bell and below avg M. Bell) the Bronc's still finished 8th in rushing with 2152-12. In '05 they finished 2nd with 2539-25 and in '04 they were 4th with 2333-13. Henry is better than any back they've had on their roster over the past few years and he's going to be the guy there. Top 10 is a lock IMO if he stays healthy.

Who came off the street started only 3 games rushed for 677 yds on 157 atmps. and scored 8tds? Oh yeah thats right the below average absolute piece of garbage Mike Bell.

Yup. It shows how bad their RB situation was last year and how good Denvers' line/system is. Olandis Gary, R. Droughns, both Bells, Mike Anderson are all average/below average backs that never did/or will produce as good as they did when they were in Denver. All were taken off the scrap heap, looked like all-pro's and became mere mortals the minute they leave town. If they liked Bell they wouldn't have went out when free agency started and locked up Henry to a large multi-year deal. I don't even think Bell will be #2 on the depth chart this year.

 

[Two Deep]

tier 1:

LJ, LT, S. Jackson, Trav Henry

tier 2:

Rudi

SA

Parker

Addai

tier 3:

Ronnie Brown

Edge

nearly 1/2 of all rb's in the top 10 one season,will not be back there the following season.

some of last years top 10 RB's in rushing , are mentioned above.

I'm removing Gore, Chester Taylor, Westbrook, Barber ( obviously) from the list. Bush doesn't make it, because he's nothing more than a glorified WR, imo..defenses will figure him out..he doesn't run the ball very much, thats why they have Deuece there..

Henry is going to be a top 3 RB by the time its all said and done. Gore has seen his upside , nowhere to go but down, injuries and a new coaching staff are cause for concern. Westbrook's first season rushing over 1,000 yards, might be his last for a while. Not sure McNabb can hold up ,if he can't, Kolb will not carry this team.

Edgerrin James should see a big spike in offensive production,and the coaching staff will lean on him, big time. They play one of the easiest SOS's against the run in 2007, and have MANY offensive weapons to keep defenses on their heels. The final eight games of 2006 is where James really began to get things going, and I think he carries that momentum into 2007 with this new coaching staff that is hell bent on improving the ground game of the Cards. Last season, Henry rushed for 1211 yards, finishing 10th. Edge should get those numbers this year, good enough for a top 10 finish.

Ronnie Brown is a one man show in Miami, the team is WR-challenged, the TE is a bust ( Dave Martin), Ginn has foot problems and is only a rookie, Chambers has one good season to his name.the coaches love to use one RB, and one RB only. Brown, while not as good as advertised when he entered the NFL, has still managing a respectable 4.3 per carry avg. He has great hands, and with a coaching staff that loves to throw to the RB,Brown should easily catch 60-70 balls.

He's one of a small handful of RB's not embroiled in a RBBC, and that alone makes him a top 10 contender..

Fred Taylor is on the wrong side of 31..MJD would easily make the top 10, if Taylor wasn't hanging around,hawking carries..

I don't know why people say this....You don't think he can at least repeat his last year numbers and score more TDs??

IMO Henry won't be in the top 10 and won't come close to top 3. At least Gore has seen #4. Henry saw #8 in buffalo, but that was 5 years ago. When was the last time Henry played a full 16 game season? 5 years ago

When was the last time that Henry played for arguably the best rushing offense in the league? Despite having absolute garbage at the RB position last year (banged up T. Bell and below avg M. Bell) the Bronc's still finished 8th in rushing with 2152-12. In '05 they finished 2nd with 2539-25 and in '04 they were 4th with 2333-13. Henry is better than any back they've had on their roster over the past few years and he's going to be the guy there. Top 10 is a lock IMO if he stays healthy.

Who came off the street started only 3 games rushed for 677 yds on 157 atmps. and scored 8tds? Oh yeah thats right the below average absolute piece of garbage Mike Bell.

Yup. It shows how bad their RB situation was last year and how good Denvers' line/system is. Olandis Gary, R. Droughns, both Bells, Mike Anderson are all average/below average backs that never did/or will produce as good as they did when they were in Denver. All were taken off the scrap heap, looked like all-pro's and became mere mortals the minute they leave town. If they liked Bell they wouldn't have went out when free agency started and locked up Henry to a large multi-year deal. I don't even think Bell will be #2 on the depth chart this year.

Henry will be 29 this year. They had to bring in a veteran, M.Bell is still raw and inexperienced. Bringing in Henry had nothing to do with Bells inability. You're to smart to fall for the Cecil Sapp reports, Bell will be number two and possibly the goal line back once Henry fumbles that job away.

 

[Banger]

tier 1:

LJ, LT, S. Jackson, Trav Henry

tier 2:

Rudi

SA

Parker

Addai

tier 3:

Ronnie Brown

Edge

nearly 1/2 of all rb's in the top 10 one season,will not be back there the following season.

some of last years top 10 RB's in rushing , are mentioned above.

I'm removing Gore, Chester Taylor, Westbrook, Barber ( obviously) from the list. Bush doesn't make it, because he's nothing more than a glorified WR, imo..defenses will figure him out..he doesn't run the ball very much, thats why they have Deuece there..

Henry is going to be a top 3 RB by the time its all said and done. Gore has seen his upside , nowhere to go but down, injuries and a new coaching staff are cause for concern. Westbrook's first season rushing over 1,000 yards, might be his last for a while. Not sure McNabb can hold up ,if he can't, Kolb will not carry this team.

Edgerrin James should see a big spike in offensive production,and the coaching staff will lean on him, big time. They play one of the easiest SOS's against the run in 2007, and have MANY offensive weapons to keep defenses on their heels. The final eight games of 2006 is where James really began to get things going, and I think he carries that momentum into 2007 with this new coaching staff that is hell bent on improving the ground game of the Cards. Last season, Henry rushed for 1211 yards, finishing 10th. Edge should get those numbers this year, good enough for a top 10 finish.

Ronnie Brown is a one man show in Miami, the team is WR-challenged, the TE is a bust ( Dave Martin), Ginn has foot problems and is only a rookie, Chambers has one good season to his name.the coaches love to use one RB, and one RB only. Brown, while not as good as advertised when he entered the NFL, has still managing a respectable 4.3 per carry avg. He has great hands, and with a coaching staff that loves to throw to the RB,Brown should easily catch 60-70 balls.

He's one of a small handful of RB's not embroiled in a RBBC, and that alone makes him a top 10 contender..

Fred Taylor is on the wrong side of 31..MJD would easily make the top 10, if Taylor wasn't hanging around,hawking carries..

I don't know why people say this....You don't think he can at least repeat his last year numbers and score more TDs??

IMO Henry won't be in the top 10 and won't come close to top 3. At least Gore has seen #4. Henry saw #8 in buffalo, but that was 5 years ago. When was the last time Henry played a full 16 game season? 5 years ago

When was the last time that Henry played for arguably the best rushing offense in the league? Despite having absolute garbage at the RB position last year (banged up T. Bell and below avg M. Bell) the Bronc's still finished 8th in rushing with 2152-12. In '05 they finished 2nd with 2539-25 and in '04 they were 4th with 2333-13. Henry is better than any back they've had on their roster over the past few years and he's going to be the guy there. Top 10 is a lock IMO if he stays healthy.

Who came off the street started only 3 games rushed for 677 yds on 157 atmps. and scored 8tds? Oh yeah thats right the below average absolute piece of garbage Mike Bell.

Yup. It shows how bad their RB situation was last year and how good Denvers' line/system is. Olandis Gary, R. Droughns, both Bells, Mike Anderson are all average/below average backs that never did/or will produce as good as they did when they were in Denver. All were taken off the scrap heap, looked like all-pro's and became mere mortals the minute they leave town. If they liked Bell they wouldn't have went out when free agency started and locked up Henry to a large multi-year deal. I don't even think Bell will be #2 on the depth chart this year.

Henry will be 29 this year. They had to bring in a veteran, M.Bell is still raw and inexperienced. Bringing in Henry had nothing to do with Bells inability. Your to smart to fall for the Cecil Sapp reports, Bell will be number two and possibly the goal line back once Henry fumbles that job away.

They didn't just bring in a vet, they brought in their starter. They didn't give him a $12 mill guaranteed contract to show the guys the ropes. In reality it doesn't matter who's #2 because it's Henry's job. Mike Bell is a nice story but Henry is a much better back IMO.

 

[ceo3west]

We all know the top 5 RB's (in no particular order: Tomlinson, S.Jackson, L.Johnson, F.Gore, S.Alexander), but which RB's after that are you excited about ? There seems to be a huge drop-off after the first 5 and some of these guys you just don't know what you are going to get. A lot of these guys are becoming feature backs, some are dependable but not spectacular....

If you are picking in the 2nd part of the Round 1 in a 12 person draft, which RB's stand out to you ???? Do you consider taking a Peyton Manning or a best WR on the board given that the RB position, while filled with promise, looks to be a guessing game as to which guys will step up.

***

- Brian Westbrook: Very good RB, but you have to deal with him being questionable every week. Not a load back, but his past production makes that a non-issue. Probably the safest of the 'other' choices along with Rudi Johnson.

- Rudi Johnson: Consistent, but not spectacular. He'll usually get close to 100 or score a TD. Very safe choice.

- Willie Parker: Broke out last season...Does he stay at that level or fall back some ?

- Joseph Addai: He may be the most likely of all the RB's to in the next tier or two to break out with him being the clear #1 guy in Indy now with Rhodes gone.

- Clinton Portis: How much does LaDell Betts around hurt him ?

- Laurence Maroney: Becomes the feature back with Dillon gone...

- Cedric Benson: Becomes the feature back with Thomas Jones gone...Can he stay healthy ?

- Reggie Bush: Needs to break more of his touches as Deuce will handle most of the load.

- Maurice Jones-Drew: Can he repeat last year's performance ? How does Fragile Fred factor in here ?

- Travis Henry: Denver RB's usually step it up....Will he be any different ?

- Willis McGahee: Will he ever get above 4 yards per carry for any length of time ??

- Ronnie Brown: Breakout or bust ???

- Cadillac Williams: Rookie standout or sophmore jinx ?

- Thomas Jones/Ahman Green: Steady, but hardly specatcular....

- Deuce McCallister: Similar to Rudi Johnson, but comes with Bush and some past injuries.

***

Thoughts on the 2nd/3rd tier RB's ? Who breaks out, who doesn't ?

The clear choice from 5 on (and maybe sooner) is Manning. I started the thread last year that Manning was the pick from 5 on and got berated (except for the smart people). Same thing again this year taking a flyer on a RB is just not smart in the 1st round if you can get Manning. I had plenty of ammo sent my way as to why I am dumb, but you would be wrong again. Ask all those people who took Caddy, RBrown, McGahee, Portis, etc... who could have taken Manning how happy they were. Look at the projections from last year (and the previous years) and look at who how many people took mediocre RB's before taking Manning. Ouch. It really surprises me that some very smart people just don't get it???

You can say this about ANY player that busted or didn't meet projections. If those RB's you had mentioned lived up to their draft position, they would have had more value than Manning. To state the above is nothing but Monday-morning quarterbacking. This year, Willie Parker is slotted for #6. There's no way Im passing on him for Manning.

How in the world is it Monday morning QBing when it was stated BEFORE the season. Sometimes I don't think anyone wants to learn or search for the truth, they just want to be right

So using your logic, I should take Manning ahead of FWP or Rudi, whoever is my #6 projected RB. Is this correct?

Your scoring rules dictate my answer but assuming the standard 1-20 and 6 for passing TD the answer is YES. VBD agrees as well.

But this is where I vary from VBD - assuming you take Manning 6th, the projections for your starting RB's need to be perfect - if one busts, your team will struggle without question because you'll be stuck with an RB2 or RB3 as your #1 RB.

 

[NOONAN]

Jeez I forget one #######g name... doesn't change the overall meaning of the post. And I don't consider MJD a threat to finish top ten. I could see it, but I think his TD numbers come way down. Why not consider the overall meaning of the post and, I don't know, CONTRIBUTE to the discussion rather than snipe other people's posts?

Your post omitted one of the top RB's. I had to call you on it. MJD is no threat for top 10??? That we can debate. Jax has one of the best running games in the league. His running mate is past 30 with an injury history(I love Freddy T, not bashing-just sayin'). I believe Jax gave Taylor the new contract in part because of his PAST performance more so than his potential for future work. If anything, MJD will get MORE carries than last year. Even if his TD per carry ratio drops(it probably will), he should still be good for 10-12 TD's IMHO. 200-225 carries/950-1100 yds. 60 catches/400. 1500 TY and 12 TD's. The looks like top 10 to me.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Henry will be 29 this year. They had to bring in a veteran, M.Bell is still raw and inexperienced. Bringing in Henry had nothing to do with Bells inability. Your to smart to fall for the Cecil Sapp reports, Bell will be number two and possibly the goal line back once Henry fumbles that job away.

Good shtick...I hope.A team does not give a guy 12 million dollars in guaranteed money to be there "just in case". They could have had a lot of other players if that had been their goal. If you believe Henry will not keep the job then that's another matter. But he WILL be given every opportunity.

 

[AnonymousBob]

But this is where I vary from VBD - assuming you take Manning 6th, the projections for your starting RB's need to be perfect - if one busts, your team will struggle without question because you'll be stuck with an RB2 or RB3 as your #1 RB.

As Yudkin has pointed out in many threads, it's only one rb that would be different. Your #2 rb would be the same in either scenario. Let's not hi-jack this thread with yet another Is it smart to draft Manning early thread but if you really want to know more then do a bit of a search. There are some incredible arguments for both sides. Bottom line, it's not a bad strategy. It's not one you clearly have to do but if someone in your league tries it they should not be immediately laughed at.

 

[Two Deep]

Henry will be 29 this year. They had to bring in a veteran, M.Bell is still raw and inexperienced. Bringing in Henry had nothing to do with Bells inability. Your to smart to fall for the Cecil Sapp reports, Bell will be number two and possibly the goal line back once Henry fumbles that job away.

Good shtick...I hope.A team does not give a guy 12 million dollars in guaranteed money to be there "just in case". They could have had a lot of other players if that had been their goal. If you believe Henry will not keep the job then that's another matter. But he WILL be given every opportunity.

You wouldn't think a team would give a 29 year old two time outcast 12 million guaranteed but they did. For some reason Tennessee didn't feel he was worth that much and neither Fat Dale or Chris Henry could pick Bells jock up at this point. What I am saying is given the opprotunity I don't think Mike Bell would produce any less than Henry.

 

[Liquid Tension]

We all know the top 5 RB's (in no particular order: Tomlinson, S.Jackson, L.Johnson, F.Gore, S.Alexander), but which RB's after that are you excited about ? There seems to be a huge drop-off after the first 5 and some of these guys you just don't know what you are going to get. A lot of these guys are becoming feature backs, some are dependable but not spectacular....

If you are picking in the 2nd part of the Round 1 in a 12 person draft, which RB's stand out to you ???? Do you consider taking a Peyton Manning or a best WR on the board given that the RB position, while filled with promise, looks to be a guessing game as to which guys will step up.

***

- Brian Westbrook: Very good RB, but you have to deal with him being questionable every week. Not a load back, but his past production makes that a non-issue. Probably the safest of the 'other' choices along with Rudi Johnson.

- Rudi Johnson: Consistent, but not spectacular. He'll usually get close to 100 or score a TD. Very safe choice.

- Willie Parker: Broke out last season...Does he stay at that level or fall back some ?

- Joseph Addai: He may be the most likely of all the RB's to in the next tier or two to break out with him being the clear #1 guy in Indy now with Rhodes gone.

- Clinton Portis: How much does LaDell Betts around hurt him ?

- Laurence Maroney: Becomes the feature back with Dillon gone...

- Cedric Benson: Becomes the feature back with Thomas Jones gone...Can he stay healthy ?

- Reggie Bush: Needs to break more of his touches as Deuce will handle most of the load.

- Maurice Jones-Drew: Can he repeat last year's performance ? How does Fragile Fred factor in here ?

- Travis Henry: Denver RB's usually step it up....Will he be any different ?

- Willis McGahee: Will he ever get above 4 yards per carry for any length of time ??

- Ronnie Brown: Breakout or bust ???

- Cadillac Williams: Rookie standout or sophmore jinx ?

- Thomas Jones/Ahman Green: Steady, but hardly specatcular....

- Deuce McCallister: Similar to Rudi Johnson, but comes with Bush and some past injuries.

***

Thoughts on the 2nd/3rd tier RB's ? Who breaks out, who doesn't ?

The clear choice from 5 on (and maybe sooner) is Manning. I started the thread last year that Manning was the pick from 5 on and got berated (except for the smart people). Same thing again this year taking a flyer on a RB is just not smart in the 1st round if you can get Manning. I had plenty of ammo sent my way as to why I am dumb, but you would be wrong again. Ask all those people who took Caddy, RBrown, McGahee, Portis, etc... who could have taken Manning how happy they were. Look at the projections from last year (and the previous years) and look at who how many people took mediocre RB's before taking Manning. Ouch. It really surprises me that some very smart people just don't get it???

You can say this about ANY player that busted or didn't meet projections. If those RB's you had mentioned lived up to their draft position, they would have had more value than Manning. To state the above is nothing but Monday-morning quarterbacking. This year, Willie Parker is slotted for #6. There's no way Im passing on him for Manning.

How in the world is it Monday morning QBing when it was stated BEFORE the season. Sometimes I don't think anyone wants to learn or search for the truth, they just want to be right

So using your logic, I should take Manning ahead of FWP or Rudi, whoever is my #6 projected RB. Is this correct?

Your scoring rules dictate my answer but assuming the standard 1-20 and 6 for passing TD the answer is YES. VBD agrees as well.

But this is where I vary from VBD - assuming you take Manning 6th, the projections for your starting RB's need to be perfect - if one busts, your team will struggle without question because you'll be stuck with an RB2 or RB3 as your #1 RB.

Not true because your differential at the QB position more than makes up for the expected RB's. Not to mention the fact that there is a crap shoot once you get out of the top few RB's. Finally, Manning is much more of a sure thing than most of the RB's you are talking about. I think Rudi is the surest thing, but he is not a big points guy getting about 13.5 points a game over the past 3 years and that is not much better than the next 10 guys (a few points). You also have MJD and Parker, but I take Manning before any of them.