The showdown - LT @ DEN - Sunday night (1 Viewer)

[JayMan]

An interesting debacle has taken place in this thread - so I wanted to start an appendix poll... your predictions of LT numbers this Sunday night in Denver...

I have looked at FBG predictions for this week... a combined 140yds and 1TD... the poll choices over/under are directly linked to this prediction... we take into account rushing / receiving / passing stats

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For the sake of it, I have duplicate here (from the other thread) the table data I have looked at to begin with...

Below are the stats of all the rushers that had at least 10 rushing yards against the Broncos in Denver in '06:

Larry Johnson---rb--27-126-0-5-41-0Joseph Addai----rb--17--93-0-5-37-0LaMont Jordan---rb--23--60-0-2-16-0Jamal Lewis-----rb--15--43-0-1--1-0Mike Anderson---rb---5--31-0-0--0-0Michael Bennett-rb---6--19-0-0--0-0Steve McNair----qb---2--15-0-0--0-0Musa Smith------rb---3--14-0-6-53-0Justin Fargas---rb---3--11-0-0--0-0Zack Crockett---rb---1--10-0-0--0-0Below are LT's road game logs in '06 so far:

1--OAK--31-131-1-3-18-04--BAL--27--98-0-1--7-06---SF--21--71-4-7-64-07---KC--15--66-0-6-72-110-CIN--22-104-4-6-54-0

As you can see:LT has been on fire with an average of (94.0/1.8 - 4.6/43.0/0.2) 30.3 ppr FFpts/gm on the road this year

while the Broncos run DEF has allowed an average of (42.2/0.0 - 1.9/14.8/0.0) 7.6 ppr FFpts/gm at home this season

No rushing TDs allowed in '06 in Denver for the Broncos... and LT has 2 4TDs game on the road this year...

What gives? Your thoughts...

 

[Kuz]

I really don't see him racking up the huge yardage game this week but I would

still put him at about 100 total yards with at least 1 TD.. possibly a 2nd..

Their offense is good enough to move it a bit on the Broncos & he's the #1,2 &

3 option inside the 10..

 

[ShaqAttaq]

i'd prefer 200 yds and 4TD again.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

I think Denver defense is a smoke & mirrors job and the Chargers expose it. LT over 140 yards NO PROBLEM. The TD is a coin flip.

 

[sinatravolta]

I think Denver defense is a smoke & mirrors job and the Chargers expose it. LT over 140 yards NO PROBLEM. The TD is a coin flip.

Results are showing the opposite, which is what I agree with. LT2 is practically certain to score, but the 140 yard thing is a coin flip.

 

[Archie Bunker]

I think Denver defense is a smoke & mirrors job and the Chargers expose it. LT over 140 yards NO PROBLEM. The TD is a coin flip.

Results are showing the opposite, which is what I agree with. LT2 is practically certain to score, but the 140 yard thing is a coin flip.

I wouldn't say the results show the opposite. Your rush defense stats better be good when you've faced Oakland twice, Baltimore, and Cleveland.

 

[JayMan]

little bump... for the later crowd...

 

[MLBrandow]

Using a little empirical analysis here:

+----------+-------------+--------+----+| WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+| 2 den | 19 52 | 0 | 2 | 05 Away| 17 den | 19 92 | 4 | 1 | 05 Home+----------+-------------+--------+----+| 3 den | 22 60 | 10 | 0 | 04 Away| 13 den | 30 113 | 17 | 2 | 04 Home+----------+-------------+--------+----+| 2 den | 16 93 | 27 | 0 | 03 Home| 11 den | 8 29 | 16 | 0 | 03 Away+----------+-------------+--------+----+| 5 den | 14 48 | 49 | 0 | 02 Away| 13 den | 37 220 | 51 | 3 | 02 Home+----------+-------------+--------+----+| 6 den | 25 58 | 11 | 0 | 01 Away| 9 den | 14 75 | 21 | 0 | 01 HomeCareer avg:| all | 22 84 | 21 | 1 || @den | 18 50 | 17 | 0 || home | 23 84 | 24 | 1 |Couple notes:- Never rushed for more than 60 yards @DEN

- Scoreless in 4/5 games @DEN

- 1/5 games above 16 receiving yards @DEN

- Held under 2.75ypc in 3/5 games @DEN (never broken 3.7ypc)

- Average '01-'06 DEN defense rank: 12th pts, 10th yds, (1st pts, 13th yds this year)

- Average LT game ('01-'05): 93ruyd, 30 reyd, TD (104ruyd, 42reyd, 2TD this year)

If we assume that LT is performing 45.4% (calculated) better than he normally does, then we can translate that against his averages for @DEN games, and thusly predict:

73ruyd, 25reyd, 0TD (58% chance to score).

Now, certainly this is just sheer numerical calculations, and as such, it shouldn't be gospel by any means.

But those expecting and predicting 140/TD against the #1 defense at home are living in another world.

LT is averaging 140/TD for the season. He doesn't come close to his season averages @DEN.

Just for the sake of blatant comparison:

LT Career per game averages: 94ruyd, 31reyd, 1.2TD

LT Career @DEN averages: 50ruyd, 17reyd, 0.4TD

It's almost cut in half.

In other words, rather than expecting 140/TD, we should expect closer to 75/0.

Take it for what it is, it's just numbers.

I'm not benching LT because that would be stupid, but I'm not expecting him to single-handedly lead me to victory this week.

 

[Muldoon]

Using a little empirical analysis here:

+----------+-------------+--------+----+| WK  OPP  |  RSH   YD   |  RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  2  den  |   19	52  |	 0  |  2 | 05 Away| 17  den  |   19	92  |	 4  |  1 | 05 Home+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  3  den  |   22	60  |	10  |  0 | 04 Away| 13  den  |   30   113  |	17  |  2 | 04 Home+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  2  den  |   16	93  |	27  |  0 | 03 Home| 11  den  |	8	29  |	16  |  0 | 03 Away+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  5  den  |   14	48  |	49  |  0 | 02 Away| 13  den  |   37   220  |	51  |  3 | 02 Home+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  6  den  |   25	58  |	11  |  0 | 01 Away|  9  den  |   14	75  |	21  |  0 | 01 HomeCareer avg:|	 all  |   22	84  |	21  |  1 ||	@den  |   18	50  |	17  |  0 ||	home  |   23	84  |	24  |  1 |

Couple notes:- Never rushed for more than 60 yards @DEN- Scoreless in 4/5 games @DEN- 1/5 games above 16 receiving yards @DEN- Held under 2.75ypc in 3/5 games @DEN (never broken 3.7ypc)- Average '01-'06 DEN defense rank: 12th pts, 10th yds, (1st pts, 13th yds this year)- Average LT game ('01-'05): 93ruyd, 30 reyd, TD (104ruyd, 42reyd, 2TD this year)If we assume that LT is performing 45.4% (calculated) better than he normally does, then we can translate that against his averages for @DEN games, and thusly predict:73ruyd, 25reyd, 0TD (58% chance to score).Now, certainly this is just sheer numerical calculations, and as such, it shouldn't be gospel by any means.But those expecting and predicting 140/TD against the #1 defense at home are living in another world.LT is averaging 140/TD for the season. He doesn't come close to his season averages @DEN.Just for the sake of blatant comparison:LT Career per game averages: 94ruyd, 31reyd, 1.2TDLT Career @DEN averages: 50ruyd, 17reyd, 0.4TDIt's almost cut in half.In other words, rather than expecting 140/TD, we should expect closer to 75/0.Take it for what it is, it's just numbers.I'm not benching LT because that would be stupid, but I'm not expecting him to single-handedly lead me to victory this week.

My friend ... turn the doorknob to the left ... OPEN.There ... see? A whole big WORLD out there!Moving on ...LT2 is going to have his soft production spots in the schedule. Do you really think ####ehouse prognosticators on this board are the definitive word on it?Tomlinson is having a special year ... and the Denver "D" has some chinks in it's armor. I can recall folks asking the same thing about Peyton Manning facing that Denver defense. Yeah. Look it up.The game is played on the field, not in the calculator or the message boards.Dismissed.

 

[Banger]

Using a little empirical analysis here:

+----------+-------------+--------+----+| WK  OPP  |  RSH   YD   |  RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  2  den  |   19	52  |	 0  |  2 | 05 Away| 17  den  |   19	92  |	 4  |  1 | 05 Home+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  3  den  |   22	60  |	10  |  0 | 04 Away| 13  den  |   30   113  |	17  |  2 | 04 Home+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  2  den  |   16	93  |	27  |  0 | 03 Home| 11  den  |	8	29  |	16  |  0 | 03 Away+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  5  den  |   14	48  |	49  |  0 | 02 Away| 13  den  |   37   220  |	51  |  3 | 02 Home+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  6  den  |   25	58  |	11  |  0 | 01 Away|  9  den  |   14	75  |	21  |  0 | 01 HomeCareer avg:|	 all  |   22	84  |	21  |  1 ||	@den  |   18	50  |	17  |  0 ||	home  |   23	84  |	24  |  1 |

Couple notes:- Never rushed for more than 60 yards @DEN- Scoreless in 4/5 games @DEN- 1/5 games above 16 receiving yards @DEN- Held under 2.75ypc in 3/5 games @DEN (never broken 3.7ypc)- Average '01-'06 DEN defense rank: 12th pts, 10th yds, (1st pts, 13th yds this year)- Average LT game ('01-'05): 93ruyd, 30 reyd, TD (104ruyd, 42reyd, 2TD this year)If we assume that LT is performing 45.4% (calculated) better than he normally does, then we can translate that against his averages for @DEN games, and thusly predict:73ruyd, 25reyd, 0TD (58% chance to score).Now, certainly this is just sheer numerical calculations, and as such, it shouldn't be gospel by any means.But those expecting and predicting 140/TD against the #1 defense at home are living in another world.LT is averaging 140/TD for the season. He doesn't come close to his season averages @DEN.Just for the sake of blatant comparison:LT Career per game averages: 94ruyd, 31reyd, 1.2TDLT Career @DEN averages: 50ruyd, 17reyd, 0.4TDIt's almost cut in half.In other words, rather than expecting 140/TD, we should expect closer to 75/0.Take it for what it is, it's just numbers.I'm not benching LT because that would be stupid, but I'm not expecting him to single-handedly lead me to victory this week.

he got two td's in denver last year and the way the Chargers can move the ball I like his chances to get in the red zone a few times. Denver has allowed the most completions against and Rivers is one of the most accurate passers in the nfl. Denver is ranked 27th against the pass and SD is 10th in passing. Considering that they had Rivers on training wheels the first 3 games. I like SD's chances to move the ball through the air. Denver will try to take the run and SD will exploit them. LT will have some goal line chances.

 

[JayMan]

Over / Under - (rush / receive / pass included)

Over 139yds (combined) & At least 1TD [ 21 ] [35.00%]

Over 139yds (combined) & no TD [ 2 ] [3.33%]

Under 140yds (combined) & At least 1TD [ 28 ] [46.67%]

Under 140yds (combined) & no TD [ 9 ] [15.00%]

Results so far:

Yardage:

Over/Under: 140 ... 23 / 37 ... 38% thinks LT goes over 140 combined yards;

TDs:

Over/Under: 1 ... 49 / 11 ... 82% thinks LT becomes the 1st RB to score on the Broncos in Denver this season;

 

[MLBrandow]

Now, certainly this is just sheer numerical calculations, and as such, it shouldn't be gospel by any means.Take it for what it is, it's just numbers.I'm not benching LT because that would be stupid, but I'm not expecting him to single-handedly lead me to victory this week.

My friend ... turn the doorknob to the left ... OPEN.There ... see? A whole big WORLD out there!Moving on ...LT2 is going to have his soft production spots in the schedule. Do you really think ####ehouse prognosticators on this board are the definitive word on it?Tomlinson is having a special year ... and the Denver "D" has some chinks in it's armor. I can recall folks asking the same thing about Peyton Manning facing that Denver defense. Yeah. Look it up.The game is played on the field, not in the calculator or the message boards.Dismissed.

It's too bad you can't read, or you might be inclined to rethink your ignorant criticisms.No one thought Manning would falter to the Bronco defense. He never has. Just because you can recall what a few idiots said on this message board doesn't mitigate my post.Rather than me just saying "I think he's going to have a good game because he's good and anyone who tries to argue against it is dumb" I actually thought out a post and backed it up with some stats and intuition.Do everyone a favor and don't post anymore until you can contribute something to a thread.

 

[bonesman]

Using a little empirical analysis here:

+----------+-------------+--------+----+| WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+| 2 den | 19 52 | 0 | 2 | 05 Away| 17 den | 19 92 | 4 | 1 | 05 Home+----------+-------------+--------+----+| 3 den | 22 60 | 10 | 0 | 04 Away| 13 den | 30 113 | 17 | 2 | 04 Home+----------+-------------+--------+----+| 2 den | 16 93 | 27 | 0 | 03 Home| 11 den | 8 29 | 16 | 0 | 03 Away+----------+-------------+--------+----+| 5 den | 14 48 | 49 | 0 | 02 Away| 13 den | 37 220 | 51 | 3 | 02 Home+----------+-------------+--------+----+| 6 den | 25 58 | 11 | 0 | 01 Away| 9 den | 14 75 | 21 | 0 | 01 HomeCareer avg:| all | 22 84 | 21 | 1 || @den | 18 50 | 17 | 0 || home | 23 84 | 24 | 1 |Couple notes:- Never rushed for more than 60 yards @DEN

- Scoreless in 4/5 games @DEN

- 1/5 games above 16 receiving yards @DEN

- Held under 2.75ypc in 3/5 games @DEN (never broken 3.7ypc)

I'm pretty sure Tomlinson ran for 75 yards in Denver as a rookie.... you may want to recheck your data.

 

[JayMan]

I'm pretty sure Tomlinson ran for 75 yards in Denver as a rookie.... you may want to recheck your data.

That is correct... 14/75/0-3/21/0... strangely enough - his best yardage game for his career in Denver... very unLT-like to say the least...

 

[JayMan]

Over / Under - (rush / receive / pass included)

Over 139yds (combined) & At least 1TD [ 29 ] [29.59%]

Over 139yds (combined) & no TD [ 2 ] [2.04%]

Under 140yds (combined) & At least 1TD [ 52 ] [53.06%]

Under 140yds (combined) & no TD [ 15 ] [15.31%]

Results so far:

Yardage:

Over/Under: 140 ... 31 / 67 ... only 32% thinks LT goes over 140 combined yards;

TDs:

Over/Under: 1 ... 81 / 17 ... 84% thinks LT becomes the 1st RB to score on the Broncos in Denver this season;

 

[JayMan]

Last bump - before tonight's game...

How many of you LT owners needs a big game from him to pull out a win?

 

[-OZ-]

How many of you LT owners needs a big game from him to pull out a win?

 

[JayMan]

The votes are in... it's gametime!

Yardage:

Over/Under: 140 ... 35 / 76 ... only 32% thinks LT goes over 140 combined yards;

TDs:

Over/Under: 1 ... 92 / 19 ... 83% thinks LT becomes the 1st RB to score on the Broncos in Denver this season;

We'll see!

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Over / Under - (rush / receive / pass included)

Over 139yds (combined) & At least 1TD [ 33 ] [29.73%]

Over 139yds (combined) & no TD [ 2 ] [1.80%]

Under 140yds (combined) & At least 1TD [ 59 ] [53.15%]

Under 140yds (combined) & no TD [ 17 ] [15.32%]

 

[MLBrandow]

I'm honestly hoping for multiple scores, but the odds of him cracking 100 are slim.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

We need to make this thread official for the game.

 

[JayMan]

We need to make this thread official for the game.

That's pretty much what I tried to do in post #18...Is there a way to block voting in your own poll?Anyhow - I copied the tallied votes just before the start of the game...

 

[JayMan]

We've got one part of the equation figured out... 1TD... 83% of FBG voters were right on that one...

 

[Joe Sixpack]

2 more yards he'll have 140

 

[JayMan]

The votes are in... it's gametime!

Yardage:

Over/Under: 140 ... 35 / 76 ... only 32% thinks LT goes over 140 combined yards;

TDs:

Over/Under: 1 ... 92 / 19 ... 83% thinks LT becomes the 1st RB to score on the Broncos in Denver this season;

We'll see!

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Over / Under - (rush / receive / pass included)

Over 139yds (combined) & At least 1TD [ 33 ] [29.73%]

Over 139yds (combined) & no TD [ 2 ] [1.80%]

Under 140yds (combined) & At least 1TD [ 59 ] [53.15%]

Under 140yds (combined) & no TD [ 17 ] [15.32%]

30% of FBG voters were correct... another tremendous game for LT