The stat that no one is talking about (1 Viewer)

[sholditch]

Joseph Addai

2006: 226 carries, 1081 yards, 4.8 ypc

2007: 261 carries, 1072 yards, 4.1 ypc

that's a decline of almost 15% in ypc from year one to year two, which coincides with his increased role carrying the rock. Indy brings back Rhodes and drafts Hart. Sorry if this has been covered in his spotlight, but he's the guy that people always refer to as the safest first round pick at RB, and I never hear this brought up.

Wow, 58 views and no comments. I guess I was right about nobody talking about it.

 

[Christo]

Each season is different. In 2006, the Colts were SB champions and Harrison was healthy. Maybe they had a harder rushing schedule in 2007. Harrison wasn't there most of the year. Addai could just as easily bounce back this as not. I wouldn't get worried until it happens over a few years.

 

[BigRed]

Right - this isn't 2006. Rhodes will take some carries and Hart a few here or there (tops) but this is no RBBC.

PS people have talked about this at length - I suggest checking the Addai "spotlight" thread.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

The Colts OL is not the best at run blocking. Pass protection they excel at, but when it comes to moving the ball 1-2 yds on 3rd and 1 or 2nd and 2...they are not so good at this. I spotlighted it in my RB thread, but they put up something like 3.8 ypc last season.

This is why he went from 4.8 to 4.1, not because he can't find the hole of a sudden.

 

[sholditch]

here are the two schedules

http://www.nfl.com/teams/schedule?team=IND...;seasonType=REG

http://www.nfl.com/teams/schedule?team=IND...;seasonType=REG

remember that Addai was never the primary ball carrier in college. These stats at least seem to suggest that he is better when carrying less of the load...

I will check the spotlight thread provided it isn't 10 pages of bickering...bickering starts at post #11

 

[abhall]

but he's the guy that people always refer to as the safest first round pick at RB

No, that would be LT.I have Barber and Portis ahead of Addai. Look at Addai's production at the tail end of the season. Rhodes won't get more than 40% of the carries, but he'll get enough to weaken Addai's production somewhat. Why wouldn't Indy use Rhodes more if he's productive. It will keep Addai fresher as the season progresses and more importantly for the playoffs. NE has and will use the same philosphy with Maroney this year.

 

[moderated]

remember that Addai was never the primary ball carrier in college. These stats at least seem to suggest that he is better when carrying less of the load...

Agree with the above. I think Addai is best used in moderation. Anything over 225 carries on the year and i think he's gonna suffer, both health wise and production wise.That said with 225 carries and 50ish receptions he can still be a great fantasy RB.

 

[switz]

Joseph Addai2006: 226 carries, 1081 yards, 4.8 ypc2007: 261 carries, 1072 yards, 4.1 ypcthat's a decline of almost 15% in ypc from year one to year two, which coincides with his increased role carrying the rock. Indy brings back Rhodes and drafts Hart. Sorry if this has been covered in his spotlight, but he's the guy that people always refer to as the safest first round pick at RB, and I never hear this brought up.

Try looking at 2007 in splits -Pre injury: 84 carries, 407 yards, 4.8 YPCPost injury: 177 carries, 665 yards, 3.8 YPCOf note, Harrison and Addai got injured in the same game.OR this split may be of interest -Pre Ugoh injury: 100 carries, 492 yards, 4.9 YPCPost Ugoh injury: 161 carries, 580 yards, 3.6 YPCIt was after game 9 that things really went downhill for Addai last season. Week 9 was the game in which Addai eclipsed 100 yards both rushing (112) and receiving (114), for 226 total yards. He only had 2 games after that in which he received more than 15 carries. The Colts had decided to preserve him for the playoffs.Obviously you can't totally discount the second half of the season's stats. But there were definite reasons outside of Addai himself for his statistical decline.I would expect him to be back to pre injury form this season, and for the OL to be much better now that they aren't constantly shuffling players around to cover injuries, and the backups are improved with experience.Addai could challenge for the top FF RB this season, and is nearly a lock to be top-5.

 

[switz]

Look at Addai's production at the tail end of the season.

You mean when he wasn't given much opportunity? Over the last 4 games of the season he averaged 9.5 carries - pretty hard to put up numbers when you aren't getting used because the team is counting on your for the playoffs. In that span, he also played I believe JAX and BAL, two tough defenses against the run.If you want to knock Addai because Indy perpetually rests their starters in FF playoff games, then go ahead. But don't pretend that the last 4 games of last season were an indication of Addai wearing out. In their playoff game he had 22 touches for 110 yards.

 

[moderated]

Addai could challenge for the top FF RB this season, and is nearly a lock to be top-5.

I doubt the Colts will give him a heavy enough load to challenge for the #1 spot. In fact they would almost be stupid to. A lot of their games will be blowouts and there is no reason to waste him on "empty" carries.He's never had a huge load in his career going back to college, it's probably for a reason.I do think he has a pretty good shot to be top 5 though since he should have 14-16 TD's.230 carries @ 4.6 a pop = 1058 yards rushing45 receptions @ 8.5 a pop = 382 yards receiving15 Total TD's.That would give him a very solid 1,440 total yards and 15 TD's. Very good but he doesn't really have the potential to be the top RB in FF.

 

[abhall]

Look at Addai's production at the tail end of the season.

You mean when he wasn't given much opportunity? Over the last 4 games of the season he averaged 9.5 carries - pretty hard to put up numbers when you aren't getting used because the team is counting on your for the playoffs. In that span, he also played I believe JAX and BAL, two tough defenses against the run.If you want to knock Addai because Indy perpetually rests their starters in FF playoff games, then go ahead. But don't pretend that the last 4 games of last season were an indication of Addai wearing out. In their playoff game he had 22 touches for 110 yards.

Exactly. He wasn't given much opportunity because of the system. I don't blame his lack of production completely on wear and tear. It's was a combination of things - system, opportunity, OL, rest, etc. The fact is it happened. I personally expect Addai's number to decrease slightly due to Rhodes, Harrison injury, etc. He's still a Top 10 back, just not in my Top 5.

 

[switz]

Look at Addai's production at the tail end of the season.

You mean when he wasn't given much opportunity? Over the last 4 games of the season he averaged 9.5 carries - pretty hard to put up numbers when you aren't getting used because the team is counting on your for the playoffs. In that span, he also played I believe JAX and BAL, two tough defenses against the run.If you want to knock Addai because Indy perpetually rests their starters in FF playoff games, then go ahead. But don't pretend that the last 4 games of last season were an indication of Addai wearing out. In their playoff game he had 22 touches for 110 yards.

Exactly. He wasn't given much opportunity because of the system. I don't blame his lack of production completely on wear and tear. It's was a combination of things - system, opportunity, OL, rest, etc. The fact is it happened. I personally expect Addai's number to decrease slightly due to Rhodes, Harrison injury, etc. He's still a Top 10 back, just not in my Top 5.

Ah, I wasn't going to bother posting this in the thread - but why not take a look at how IND has historically used their #1 RBs...2007 - 261 carries (Addai) - missed one game with injury2006 - 226 carries (Addai) - Rhodes was the "starter"2005 - 360 carries (Edge)2004 - 334 carries (Edge)2003 - 310 carries (Edge)2002 - 277 carries (Edge) - returning form torn ACL2001 - 233 carries (Rhodes) - Edge tore his ACL this season2000 - 387 carries (Edge)1999 - 369 carries (Edge)1998 - 324 carries (Faulk)Is there a commonality in there? There are 4 seasons where the #1 RB had less than 300 carries. In 3 of them, injuries were involved. The only other one was where they were transitioning RBs. Unless you are expecting Addia to get injured again, it is unlikely any of the other RBs will cut into his work enough for him to end up with fewer carries than last season.Last season, including the last 4 games where Addai was clearly not being used, he was on pace for 278 carries. Barring similar problems as last season (OL injuries, Harrison out 12 games) Addai should exceed that number of carries.

 

[Dexter Manley]

Look at Addai's production at the tail end of the season.

You mean when he wasn't given much opportunity? Over the last 4 games of the season he averaged 9.5 carries - pretty hard to put up numbers when you aren't getting used because the team is counting on your for the playoffs. In that span, he also played I believe JAX and BAL, two tough defenses against the run.If you want to knock Addai because Indy perpetually rests their starters in FF playoff games, then go ahead. But don't pretend that the last 4 games of last season were an indication of Addai wearing out. In their playoff game he had 22 touches for 110 yards.

See, this is what concerns me about Addai, and about the Colts in general. I must admit though, Indy's playoff schedule is pretty good, except for @Jax week 16, but that could turn out to be a blessing in disguise.Take a look at Addai's playoff schedule:

Cincy

Detroit

@Jax

Tenn (week 17)

Basically you have to hope that Jax and/or Tenn (or Houston) are still in position to win the division in week 16, and/or the Colts are still fighting for HFA in the playoffs, so Indy isn't resting their players in week 16.

 

[wraith5]

Look at Addai's production at the tail end of the season.

You mean when he wasn't given much opportunity? Over the last 4 games of the season he averaged 9.5 carries - pretty hard to put up numbers when you aren't getting used because the team is counting on your for the playoffs. In that span, he also played I believe JAX and BAL, two tough defenses against the run.If you want to knock Addai because Indy perpetually rests their starters in FF playoff games, then go ahead. But don't pretend that the last 4 games of last season were an indication of Addai wearing out. In their playoff game he had 22 touches for 110 yards.

See, this is what concerns me about Addai, and about the Colts in general. I must admit though, Indy's playoff schedule is pretty good, except for @Jax week 16, but that could turn out to be a blessing in disguise.Take a look at Addai's playoff schedule:

Cincy

Detroit

@Jax

Tenn (week 17)

Basically you have to hope that Jax and/or Tenn (or Houston) are still in position to win the division in week 16, and/or the Colts are still fighting for HFA in the playoffs, so Indy isn't resting their players in week 16.

This year more than any other I think JAX is in position to make IND play their guys through week 16, which makes me like Addai that much more. The fact that the two teams are playing what could be a very meaningful game in week 16 is icing on the cake. I don't think Rhodes is a threat to Addai's carry total - I see a similar role to what Kenton had last year. So overall I see less risk with Addai than I do with SJax (is he going to play the first 1/2 of the season?), Gore (you need a QB in football... SF may not have one), or MBIII (65% split with Felix).

 

[Tanner9919]

Joseph Addai2006: 226 carries, 1081 yards, 4.8 ypc2007: 261 carries, 1072 yards, 4.1 ypcthat's a decline of almost 15% in ypc from year one to year two, which coincides with his increased role carrying the rock. Indy brings back Rhodes and drafts Hart. Sorry if this has been covered in his spotlight, but he's the guy that people always refer to as the safest first round pick at RB, and I never hear this brought up.Wow, 58 views and no comments. I guess I was right about nobody talking about it.

THE safest first round pick this year is Clinton Portis, IMO..and the new passing offense Zorn has brought in will open up the running lanes for Portis in a big way..the guy is a lock for 300+ carries and double digit TDs...his line is finally healthy for the first time in years..

 

[Dexter Manley]

Btw, I completely disagree with this whole notion that Addai is the "safest pick," or one of the safest picks. He seems injury prone to me, and he's never going to carry the full load for a whole season. Sure, he'll have games where he'll have 20+ touches, but he's never going to be a bell cow week in and week out like LT, Portis, LJ, etc.

 

[switz]

Btw, I completely disagree with this whole notion that Addai is the "safest pick," or one of the safest picks. He seems injury prone to me, and

Hmmm... missed one game in two years = injury prone. What does that make ADP?

he's never going to carry the full load for a whole season. Sure, he'll have games where he'll have 20+ touches, but he's never going to be a bell cow week in and week out like LT, Portis, LJ, etc.

9 games in '07 with 19+ carries. Not a ton of RBs you can say that about.LT: 9-19+ carry games.Portis: 8-19+ carry games.LJ: 5-19+ carry games (of 8 games played, projects to 10... but of course he missed 8 games LOL)BTW, if you change it to 20 - Addai 8LT 8Portis 8LJ 4Compare that to 2 for Barber, yet everyone seems to think he's going to get 300+ carries. Keep spewing the Addai hate, just means I can land him in more leagues this year.

 

[pizzatyme]

A) Not sure who is is calling Addai the safest pick.

B) I'm listening to Sports Talk Radio right now and have been. There is NOTHING on here about Manning. He is in Terre Haute and rumor has it he'll hit the field on Friday.

C) Rhodes will be splitting carries with Addai this year. I'll project Rhodes to get 25-30% of the work. Plus, Mike Hart may even get some chances.

 

[switz]

C) Rhodes will be splitting carries with Addai this year. I'll project Rhodes to get 25-30% of the work. Plus, Mike Hart may even get some chances.

 

[Dexter Manley]

Btw, I completely disagree with this whole notion that Addai is the "safest pick," or one of the safest picks. He seems injury prone to me, and

Hmmm... missed one game in two years = injury prone. What does that make ADP?

he's never going to carry the full load for a whole season. Sure, he'll have games where he'll have 20+ touches, but he's never going to be a bell cow week in and week out like LT, Portis, LJ, etc.

9 games in '07 with 19+ carries. Not a ton of RBs you can say that about.LT: 9-19+ carry games.Portis: 8-19+ carry games.LJ: 5-19+ carry games (of 8 games played, projects to 10... but of course he missed 8 games LOL)BTW, if you change it to 20 - Addai 8LT 8Portis 8LJ 4Compare that to 2 for Barber, yet everyone seems to think he's going to get 300+ carries. Keep spewing the Addai hate, just means I can land him in more leagues this year.

First, I don't hate Addai, he just makes me nervous. I know it's a preseason game, but he played like 2 plays vs. Washington before he got pulled from the game because he got hit hard. He sent owners all over the country into a panic the opening game last season when he got dinged against Saints. And of course he was injured during the latter part of the season. Second, I was just throwing out LT, Portis, and LJ as examples of guys who kept getting fed the ball a lot nearly every game. How many 4 game stretches did LT or Portis have last season where they averaged less than 10 carries per game? Even LJ didn't have a stretch of games like this when he was playing at the beginning of last season, despite being out of shape due to his holdout. (And btw, how many 19+ carrie games did LJ have in 2006, when he was healthy. Not last year when he had a freak injury?) Addai absolutely killed owners at the end of last season during that stretch because you had to still start him.If he's healthy all year, and the Colts have to play him through week 16, I too think he's a lock for top 5 #'s, probably top 3. I've seen plenty of people, however, predict guys like LT and Portis are finally going to break down this season, yet act like Addai is a safe bet to stay healthy (I'm not talking about you). I think that's ridiculous.

 

[wraith5]

C) Rhodes will be splitting carries with Addai this year. I'll project Rhodes to get 25-30% of the work. Plus, Mike Hart may even get some chances.

I can see Rhodes taking up to 25% of the carries, and even then Addai would have 260+ carries (he had 261 last year). Rhodes hasn't seen 4.0 YPC since 2004. You really think he's going to force Addai into a RBBC situation? I don't see it.

 

[pizzatyme]

C) Rhodes will be splitting carries with Addai this year. I'll project Rhodes to get 25-30% of the work. Plus, Mike Hart may even get some chances.

I can see Rhodes taking up to 25% of the carries, and even then Addai would have 260+ carries (he had 261 last year). Rhodes hasn't seen 4.0 YPC since 2004. You really think he's going to force Addai into a RBBC situation? I don't see it.

It's not about forcing Addai into a RBBC. It about the Colts philosophy of trying to keep Addai fresh. They weren't able to do that last year comfortably. They have a trusted RB back in Rhodes. All of this is just my point of view and there are no links, so take it for what it's worth. People will be maddened as Addai comes out at the stripe and take occasional series off. As a Colts fan, I welcome it. As a fantasy player, Addai is my #8RB.

 

[pizzatyme]

C) Rhodes will be splitting carries with Addai this year. I'll project Rhodes to get 25-30% of the work. Plus, Mike Hart may even get some chances.

No link brother. You can choose to ignore what I believe will happen. But, it will cost you!

 

[switz]

C) Rhodes will be splitting carries with Addai this year. I'll project Rhodes to get 25-30% of the work. Plus, Mike Hart may even get some chances.

No link brother. You can choose to ignore what I believe will happen. But, it will cost you!

Fine. But history is against you being right. I trust history and myself more than you. FYI - No reports out of camp even have Rhodes as the primary backup yet. It's been assumed by some writers, but the team hasn't decided yet. I think he will open the season as the backup, because he knows the system. I think Hart will be third string. Rhodes will probably give way to Hart at some point in the season, as IMO the reason Rhodes was brought back was to serve as a mentor to Hart, like he did for Addai two seasons ago. However, I would be shocked if any RB other than Addai sees more than 5 touches a game on a regular basis, barring an Addai injury.

It's not about forcing Addai into a RBBC. It about the Colts philosophy of trying to keep Addai fresh. They weren't able to do that last year comfortably. They have a trusted RB back in Rhodes. All of this is just my point of view and there are no links, so take it for what it's worth.

People will be maddened as Addai comes out at the stripe and take occasional series off. As a Colts fan, I welcome it. As a fantasy player, Addai is my #8RB.

The Colts are simply not an RBBC system. Even last year, prior to his injury, Addai was the main guy, and even afterwards until the health of the team overall went to pot, he was the main guy. There's just nothing to support any RBBC projections for Indy.As far as keeping him fresh - where is this idea that they were unable to do that coming from? Their drafting an RB in the 5th? Their resigning a veteran that was familiar with the offense? They weren't satisfied with Keith, but that had little to do with Addai.

I hope you can get him at 1.8, as he will be a steal. There's no way he finishes outside the top-5 barring injury.

 

[thecardiackid]

I have Addai in a dynasty league as my RB1 and may be looking @ him as the #5 pick in a 14 team re-draft coming up. That said/admitted - his OVERALL schedule (especially early) is rough vs. opposing RBs. I don't see any easy games until maybe CLE / CIN weeks 13/14 - maybe HOU a couple of times, but those are division games anyway.

This may be good regarding INDY's ability to rest players weeks 15/16 - since this schedule will certainly be challenging, and I think they'll be lucky to win 11 games (vs. locking up HFA by week 14 as ususal) And I agree the FF playoff schedule (even w/ @ JAX) looks nice. But, he's got to perform (justifying his ADP) weeks 1-13 against this schedule to get us there. Maybe easier said than done.

The downside (Addai wise) is that he's going to have a tough time getting decent yardage games (IMO). The TDs should be there, but those are tough to bank on.

Not down on Addai the player at all. Love his opportunity, solid talent, pass catching, and surrouning talent. I do think the Colts will be brought back to reality this season though.

1 Sep 07 CHI @ IND  8:15 PM	  2 Sep 14 IND @ MIN  1:00 PM	  3 Sep 21 JAC @ IND  4:15 PM	  4 Bye  5 Oct 05 IND @ HOU  1:00 PM	   6 Oct 12 BAL @ IND  1:00 PM	   7 Oct 19 IND @ GB  4:15 PM	  8 Oct 27 IND @ TEN  8:30 PM	 9 Nov 02 NE @ IND  8:15 PM	   10 Nov 09 IND @ PIT  4:15 PM	 11 Nov 16 HOU @ IND  1:00 PM	  12 Nov 23 IND @ SD  8:15 PM	  13 Nov 30 IND @ CLE  1:00 PM	  14 Dec 07 CIN @ IND  1:00 PM	  15 Dec 14 DET @ IND  1:00 PM	  16 Dec 18 IND @ JAC  8:15 PM	   17 Dec 28 TEN @ IND  1:00 PM

 

[switz]

1 Sep 07 CHI @ IND  8:15 PM	  2 Sep 14 IND @ MIN  1:00 PM	  (DNP)3 Sep 21 JAC @ IND  4:15 PM   (3.2 but prior game was 5.3)4 Bye  5 Oct 05 IND @ HOU  1:00 PM	 (4.3 last game against, 3.3 the prior game)  6 Oct 12 BAL @ IND  1:00 PM	   (2.5 last game)7 Oct 19 IND @ GB  4:15 PM	  (DNP)8 Oct 27 IND @ TEN  8:30 PM	 (6.8 last game against, 4.1 the prior game)	 9 Nov 02 NE @ IND  8:15 PM	  (4.3 against last game) 10 Nov 09 IND @ PIT  4:15 PM	 (DNP)11 Nov 16 HOU @ IND  1:00 PM	 (4.3 last game against, 3.3 the prior game)  12 Nov 23 IND @ SD  8:15 PM	  (3.3 playoffs, 2.5 reg season)13 Nov 30 IND @ CLE  1:00 PM	  (DNP)14 Dec 07 CIN @ IND  1:00 PM	  (6.3 last game 2006)15 Dec 14 DET @ IND  1:00 PM	  (DNP)16 Dec 18 IND @ JAC  8:15 PM	   (3.2 but prior game was 5.3)17 Dec 28 TEN @ IND  1:00 PM	 (6.8 last game against, 4.1 the prior game)

It really doesn't look that bad

 

[Bri]

Yards per carry is useless

 

[wraith5]

Yards per carry is useless

You want to unpack that a bit? Because on the surface that statement is a bit absurd.

 

[Jon_Moore]

Joseph Addai2006: 226 carries, 1081 yards, 4.8 ypc2007: 261 carries, 1072 yards, 4.1 ypcthat's a decline of almost 15% in ypc from year one to year two, which coincides with his increased role carrying the rock. Indy brings back Rhodes and drafts Hart. Sorry if this has been covered in his spotlight, but he's the guy that people always refer to as the safest first round pick at RB, and I never hear this brought up.Wow, 58 views and no comments. I guess I was right about nobody talking about it.

I don't see any point in this. Number one, Tomlinson has to be the safest bet at Running back. Number 2, look at the numbers before the offensive line suffered some injuries.Number 3, if the YPC is what concerns you, he had Rodes to spell him in 2006. He was fresher. He has Rodes again in 2008. He'll be fresher.I'll draft Addai around 5th overall all day.

 

[Bri]

Yards per carry is useless

You want to unpack that a bit? Because on the surface that statement is a bit absurd.

why is it absurd?ETA How do you find it useful to predict anything? example please too

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

Maybe Tarik Glenn's retirement had something to do with the drop?

 

[switz]

Yards per carry is useless

What on earth do you mean?? Please explain how YPC is useless.Someone said his schedule was tough... yet with a decent YPC there's no indication he struggles running against that competition.If you're going to make some absurd claim like YPC is useless, you'd better be able to back it up.You do realize they keep track of it for RBs and YPC allowed for defenses for a reason, right?

 

[unckeyherb]

I think Switz and I have the same opinion about Addai as I have read, posted and agreed with most of what he is saying in other Addai threads. One other thing to look at regarding Rhodes is when each guy got carries in '06. Almost from the beginning, Rhodes received his share of carries in Indy territory. He was used to beat up the defense for the first part of the drive. When they crossed into opposing team's side of the field it would almost always transition to Addai's share of carries. When it got into RZ, it was all Addai. He has proven that he has a nose for the end zone, so I see absolutely no worries about anyone stealing carries there.

I don't want to write a long thing about his number of carries last year, but prior to the last few weeks he was on pace to get just under 300 carries. I feel like this subject has been beaten to death here and on other sites. I think that Addai is just a very polarizing RB just like he was last year. It seems like a lot of people look for reasons to be down him more than others, while ignoring that he DID get injured last year, that hes only missed ONE GAME due to injury, that his Oline was a mess for a good chunk of the 2nd half of the season, that it is typical for Indy to rest their starters right around FF playoffs, etc.

Fact is the dude excells at all facets of RB (running, catching, blocking etc.). He is on a perrenial top 3 offense, is guaranteed 40 receptions for a min. of 300 yards, does not get pulled at the goaline. I can think of few RB's that are more of a lock than he is. LT is about it actually.

 

[sholditch]

I have Addai in a dynasty league as my RB1 and may be looking @ him as the #5 pick in a 14 team re-draft coming up. That said/admitted - his OVERALL schedule (especially early) is rough vs. opposing RBs. I don't see any easy games until maybe CLE / CIN weeks 13/14 - maybe HOU a couple of times, but those are division games anyway.This may be good regarding INDY's ability to rest players weeks 15/16 - since this schedule will certainly be challenging, and I think they'll be lucky to win 11 games (vs. locking up HFA by week 14 as ususal) And I agree the FF playoff schedule (even w/ @ JAX) looks nice. But, he's got to perform (justifying his ADP) weeks 1-13 against this schedule to get us there. Maybe easier said than done.The downside (Addai wise) is that he's going to have a tough time getting decent yardage games (IMO). The TDs should be there, but those are tough to bank on.Not down on Addai the player at all. Love his opportunity, solid talent, pass catching, and surrouning talent. I do think the Colts will be brought back to reality this season though.

1 Sep 07 CHI @ IND  8:15 PM	  2 Sep 14 IND @ MIN  1:00 PM	  3 Sep 21 JAC @ IND  4:15 PM	  4 Bye  5 Oct 05 IND @ HOU  1:00 PM	   6 Oct 12 BAL @ IND  1:00 PM	   7 Oct 19 IND @ GB  4:15 PM	  8 Oct 27 IND @ TEN  8:30 PM	 9 Nov 02 NE @ IND  8:15 PM	   10 Nov 09 IND @ PIT  4:15 PM	 11 Nov 16 HOU @ IND  1:00 PM	  12 Nov 23 IND @ SD  8:15 PM	  13 Nov 30 IND @ CLE  1:00 PM	  14 Dec 07 CIN @ IND  1:00 PM	  15 Dec 14 DET @ IND  1:00 PM	  16 Dec 18 IND @ JAC  8:15 PM	   17 Dec 28 TEN @ IND  1:00 PM

Have to disagree with Switz and say this looks absolutely brutal.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Yards per carry is useless

No its not.

 

[switz]

I have Addai in a dynasty league as my RB1 and may be looking @ him as the #5 pick in a 14 team re-draft coming up. That said/admitted - his OVERALL schedule (especially early) is rough vs. opposing RBs. I don't see any easy games until maybe CLE / CIN weeks 13/14 - maybe HOU a couple of times, but those are division games anyway.

This may be good regarding INDY's ability to rest players weeks 15/16 - since this schedule will certainly be challenging, and I think they'll be lucky to win 11 games (vs. locking up HFA by week 14 as ususal) And I agree the FF playoff schedule (even w/ @ JAX) looks nice. But, he's got to perform (justifying his ADP) weeks 1-13 against this schedule to get us there. Maybe easier said than done.

The downside (Addai wise) is that he's going to have a tough time getting decent yardage games (IMO). The TDs should be there, but those are tough to bank on.

Not down on Addai the player at all. Love his opportunity, solid talent, pass catching, and surrouning talent. I do think the Colts will be brought back to reality this season though.

1 Sep 07 CHI @ IND  8:15 PM	  2 Sep 14 IND @ MIN  1:00 PM	  3 Sep 21 JAC @ IND  4:15 PM	  4 Bye  5 Oct 05 IND @ HOU  1:00 PM	   6 Oct 12 BAL @ IND  1:00 PM	   7 Oct 19 IND @ GB  4:15 PM	  8 Oct 27 IND @ TEN  8:30 PM	 9 Nov 02 NE @ IND  8:15 PM	   10 Nov 09 IND @ PIT  4:15 PM	 11 Nov 16 HOU @ IND  1:00 PM	  12 Nov 23 IND @ SD  8:15 PM	  13 Nov 30 IND @ CLE  1:00 PM	  14 Dec 07 CIN @ IND  1:00 PM	  15 Dec 14 DET @ IND  1:00 PM	  16 Dec 18 IND @ JAC  8:15 PM	   17 Dec 28 TEN @ IND  1:00 PM

Have to disagree with Switz and say this looks absolutely brutal.

Except you have no statistical evidence to support that. Whereas I showed that in the past Addai has played very well against most of those teams. It's nice to say something looks brutal... but applying that statement to this schedule just doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

 

[Bri]

Yards per carry is useless

What on earth do you mean?? Please explain how YPC is useless.Someone said his schedule was tough... yet with a decent YPC there's no indication he struggles running against that competition.If you're going to make some absurd claim like YPC is useless, you'd better be able to back it up.You do realize they keep track of it for RBs and YPC allowed for defenses for a reason, right?

If you'd like to discuss, answer the same Qs as I posed to wraith.

 

[Dexter Manley]

I have Addai in a dynasty league as my RB1 and may be looking @ him as the #5 pick in a 14 team re-draft coming up. That said/admitted - his OVERALL schedule (especially early) is rough vs. opposing RBs. I don't see any easy games until maybe CLE / CIN weeks 13/14 - maybe HOU a couple of times, but those are division games anyway.

This may be good regarding INDY's ability to rest players weeks 15/16 - since this schedule will certainly be challenging, and I think they'll be lucky to win 11 games (vs. locking up HFA by week 14 as ususal) And I agree the FF playoff schedule (even w/ @ JAX) looks nice. But, he's got to perform (justifying his ADP) weeks 1-13 against this schedule to get us there. Maybe easier said than done.

The downside (Addai wise) is that he's going to have a tough time getting decent yardage games (IMO). The TDs should be there, but those are tough to bank on.

Not down on Addai the player at all. Love his opportunity, solid talent, pass catching, and surrouning talent. I do think the Colts will be brought back to reality this season though.

1 Sep 07 CHI @ IND 8:15 PM 2 Sep 14 IND @ MIN 1:00 PM 3 Sep 21 JAC @ IND 4:15 PM 4 Bye 5 Oct 05 IND @ HOU 1:00 PM 6 Oct 12 BAL @ IND 1:00 PM 7 Oct 19 IND @ GB 4:15 PM 8 Oct 27 IND @ TEN 8:30 PM 9 Nov 02 NE @ IND 8:15 PM 10 Nov 09 IND @ PIT 4:15 PM 11 Nov 16 HOU @ IND 1:00 PM 12 Nov 23 IND @ SD 8:15 PM 13 Nov 30 IND @ CLE 1:00 PM 14 Dec 07 CIN @ IND 1:00 PM 15 Dec 14 DET @ IND 1:00 PM 16 Dec 18 IND @ JAC 8:15 PM 17 Dec 28 TEN @ IND 1:00 PM

Have to disagree with Switz and say this looks absolutely brutal.

Except you have no statistical evidence to support that. Whereas I showed that in the past Addai has played very well against most of those teams. It's nice to say something looks brutal... but applying that statement to this schedule just doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

On paper, this is definitely the toughest run schedule I've noticed. There's only 2 good matchups, Cincy and Detroit (I expect Cleveland to be good against the run this year and poor against the pass).That being said, I think I have to side with Switz on this. Teams can't focus on shutting down the run against Indy, because Manning and their passing offense is so explosive. If you try and put 8 men in the box, Peyton will destroy you. Teams that play Indy have to focus on trying to contain the Colts passing game, usually at the cost of allowing Indy to successfully run the ball. That's the #1 reason why Addai is so effective against good defenses, imo. If the Colts offense is 100% healthy, then their rb is easily put in the best position to succeed out of all the teams in the league.

Now I have seen rumors that Peyton could possibly miss the season opener. As of right now, I'll believe it when I see it, but if Peyton does miss the Bears game, or any game for that matter, Addia's value goes down the toilet, as teams will load up against the run and force dirty Sorgi to beat them.