Theory: The worse your draft goes, the better your chance to win. Discuss. (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Alternate title: “Why it might be better to not have a draft you’re thrilled with”.

Ok, not completely literally, but hear me out:

You LOVR your draft. You feel like you’re set at all of the key positions & got all of your “sleepers” dotting your bench. You not only don’t want to scout the FA list, it’s almost irrelevant as you wouldn’t want to drop any of your bench players early since you believe they’ll all be break-out guys.

or

you HATE your draft. You did ok the first few rounds but you hate your bench, you lack depth at several positions, you have 1 too many stud RB and not enough WRs. You’re gonna work the wire like a fiend & throw out 50 trade offers before game 1 ever starts. 

I’ve seen (been in) both scenarios before. This year in redraft, I really like my team. I dealt my 5th WR (Or 6th, depending) for a top 10 DB to address a defensive weak spot, but otherwise I’ve spent the last 3 days watching prospects getting picked up off the wire - some of whom I looked at but had no one to drop. 

I had one of my best years ever the year I was super actively trying to fix draft day mistakes. I scouted the wire closer, and made more team-improving deals than ever. 

Is this counter-intuitive theory accurate, or am I just breathing too much smoky CA air & it’s effecting my brain? 

Discuss! 

 

[Wrigley]

I drafted Mahomes(2.9) and then Wison(6.9) in a 1 QB league(roster rules require we carry 2 QBs).   Took my second QB before most teams had their 1st

I hated my draft

Footballguys gave my team an A
 

I’ll be chasing RBs all year.....just like every year 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I drafted Mahomes(2.9) and then Wison(6.9) in a 1 QB league(roster rules require we carry 2 QBs).   Took my second QB before most teams had their 1st

I hated my draft

Footballguys gave my team an A
 

I’ll be chasing RBs all year.....just like every year 

Sounds like a perfect path to success by this topic’s logic. You’ve identified a weakness and a premier trade chip. 

What RB can you get for Russel Wilson? 

Congrats on your pending championship.

 

[The Dude]

Nine out of ten times you got to love your draft - or you’re doing it wrong

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Nine out of ten times you got to love your draft - or you’re doing it wrong

Maybe true. 

Fast forward fo week 7 and tell me how much ya like your draft though. 

Meanwhile, you spent the first few weeks looking at your roster all like   while all the waiver guys got gobbled up.

Then by week 8 maybe you’re

complacency kills. I try to never love my lineup too much. Keeps me hungry. 

 

[Pip's Invitation]

My thoughts here are a variation of something I posted in the Summerpalooza thread in the FFA.

In modern FF, there is so much info out there that it is hard to completely bomb a draft, especially in redraft. Everyone has access to the same info, it’s just a question of how you use it. Therefore - and this is the key point - modern leagues, at least redrafts, are more likely to be won on the WW or through lineup decisions than they are through the draft results.

Given this, you may be at somewhat of an advantage if you have a draft you are not in love with. Because you are not wedded to those you drafted, you are more likely to be aggressive on the WW, especially in the early weeks when it matters most, and to make outside-the-chalk lineup decisions that work, than if you love your draft and are more wedded to those you picked. 

My 2015 money redraft title winner is testament to this. My draft was nothing special and I had few guys who scored among the highest at their positions. But I got good enough performances from everyone every week. I rode Derek Carr, Gary Barnidge, and Theo Riddick (three WW guys) to the title. (Obviously this is PPR.) I got hot in the second half when I stopped considering where I drafted a guy in my start-sit decisions.

So I think there is something to your point, especially in redrafts.

Edit: Powell was not on this team but a different one of mine that year. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Given this, you may be at somewhat of an advantage if you have a draft you are not in love with. Because you are not wedded to those you drafted, you are more likely to be aggressive on the WW, especially in the early weeks when it matters most, and to make outside-the-chalk lineup decisions that work, than if you love your draft and are more wedded to those you picked. 

Yes, agreed. this was essentially my approach to DL & DB in IDP redraft this year. 

For one, production at those positions is maddeningly inconsistent for all but the top 2-3. And even then. So I rarely invest the draft capital required to roster the best ones. 

for another, defensive positions tend to get banged up more than most. So I hate spending big on them. Last year I came in 2nd/12 losing one the LCG. But within 3 weeks of the draft I’d lost half my DL/DB to injury & mined the WW for replacements who ended up being not too far off replacement value.  So this year after I had 3 LB I loved, I pretty well punted at DL & DB, stacking up offensive depth that I knew I could deal later. 

It gave me a couple days to evaluate the roster & determine I needed at least one more solid DB, as the guys I had weren’t going to get it done. Better suited to a 2/BYE than a 1-2.  

and since I’m not married to any of the rest due to low draft capital spent on them, it’s not going to be hard to drop them if they don’t work out. 

So I think there is something to your point, especially in redrafts.

Definitely was referring to redrafts.

Appreciate your thoughtful response. You better articulated some of what I was feeling about this. 

 

[OnTheReg]

As someone who doesn’t love his draft from last night, this thread just made me feel so much better! 

 

[dkp993]

So along those same lines, had a draft this year I couldn’t do, had to work.  So I did the unthinkable, set the autodraft.  In my 20+yrs playing I can’t remember a time I’ve ever done this before (maybe the last few rounds of a 28 round best ball but that’s it).  Got home that night and checked out my team.  Might be my favorite team of the 8 I’m in this year.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

As someone who doesn’t love his draft from last night, this thread just made me feel so much better! 

Maybe it can be summed up that people who are starving will spend the day looking for food, while who just ate aren’t interested in spending the effort.. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Might be my favorite team of the 8 I’m in this year.  

That’s still your effort in setting up your preference / ranking though. Give yourself a little credit, buddy. 

 

[wgoldsph]

I got hot in the second half when I stopped considering where I drafted a guy in my start-sit decisions.

I think this has a lot to do with it - not basing your start/sit on draft rank.  If playing your 5th wr week one makes the most sense because they're going up against a defense that's terrible and already hurt at corner while your 3rd and 4th are going up against juggernauts then that's how you win your week.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

  If playing your 5th wr week one makes the most sense because they're going up against a defense that's terrible and already hurt at corner while your 3rd and 4th are going up against juggernauts then that's how you win your week.

that’s likely how I’m approaching week 1 with Parker. Bum hammy, facing Gilmore. I can go with Crowder or Kirk (if Crowder doesn’t go) or E.Sanders. 

Would I rather have D.Parker in my lineup? Of course - but the matchup /  health combo makes him the lesser option. 

My goal isn’t to start who I drafted in order of their draft position, it’s to win a given week. 

 

[Ilov80s]

I never thought about it terms of the draft but I do think there is a curse of the hot start. Teams that often get out to a real hot start take their success for granted and are less likely to make moves to improve. It’s a very long season and being 4-0 is nice but you can lose 4 games as fast as you won 4 games.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I never thought about it terms of the draft but I do think there is a curse of the hot start. Teams that often get out to a real hot start take their success for granted and are less likely to make moves to improve. It’s a very long season and being 4-0 is nice but you can lose 4 games as fast as you won 4 games.

This fits right into the theory - it’s about hustle vs complacency. 

a team that goes 2-4 in the first 6 weeks will probably hustle a hell of a lot harder than a team that gets off to a 4-2 start.

In 2 weeks if they’re both 4-4 it really makes no difference how they got there, but the team that started 2-4 may well have out-worked the 4-2 squad & built a better/deeper team for it. 

 

[Ilov80s]

This fits right into the theory - it’s about hustle vs complacency. 

a team that goes 2-4 in the first 6 weeks will probably hustle a hell of a lot harder than a team that gets off to a 4-2 start.

In 2 weeks if they’re both 4-4 it really makes no difference how they got there, but the team that started 2-4 may well have out-worked the 4-2 squad & built a better/deeper team for it. 

Yep. I’ve seen a few times where a team gets out red hot, 6-0, 8-2, etc. and craps out in the playoffs because they were really jusy riding a couple hot players and never fortified their team. An injury or a cold game from one their few key players leaves them SOL. Those teams who flirted with 500 and had to win every game down the stretch to make the playoffs have probably better positioned their team for the playoffs. Often the red hot players in September and October aren’t the red hot guys in November and December anyway. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Often the red hot players in September and October aren’t the red hot guys in November and December anyway. 

Yep - and the teams that are struggling tend to watch not just the FA list but the drops of every other team. 

I distinctly remember watching a dude in one league acting as the garbage man. He wasn’t the best researched dude in our league, but he knew the managers who were. So when they’d drop someone for the flavor of the week early in the season, he’d scoop up the dropped guys, several of whom had minor 1-2 week injuries or got off to a slow start 

Dude made the LCG that year. I was impressed. So much so that to this day I turn on my add/drop email notification to see who got dropped. One man’s trash, and all that. 

 

[Pip's Invitation]

This fits right into the theory - it’s about hustle vs complacency. 

I found my old records for that 2015 team.

My first 6 picks (from the 9 spot in a 12 teamer) were Demaryius, Jeremy Hill, Alshon, Landry (remember, PPR), JStew and Ivory. All 6 were still on my team at the end of the year, and of those only Landry was a big hit relative to draft position. He was my highest-scoring non-QB. Ivory was my highest scoring RB, though he might have been hurt by the time the playoffs rolled around. 

Most of my other picks were gone by the end of the season, with a notable exception of 15th rounder Allen Hurns, who had his one big year and who I relied on a lot.

At the end, my starters included Carr at QB (WW pickup, draftees Romo and Flacco got hurt), Riddick at RB (WW pickup; I misremembered, I had Powell on a different team that year), Barnidge at TE (WW pickup, scored almost double the FF points of Julius Thomas, my 8th rounder, who I kept the whole season but had ride the pine after about week 5) and Michael Floyd at WR (WW pickup, came back from injury midseason and beasted). Oh, and Blair Walsh at K (WW pickup, who in week 16 scored 23 against the Giants, who kept turning the ball over in FG range). 

Stuff like that is how you win with a blah draft. 

 

[TZMarkie]

I found my old records for that 2015 team.

, Barnidge at TE (WW pickup, scored almost double the FF points of Julius Thomas, my 8th rounder,

This right here, I'd be willing to look back at his most solid games, and bet he helped you win 2-3 weeks here alone.

Obviously you have to get lucky at the right times, and picking up a few guys to help along the way when you need it is crucial.

FLIP MODE - If you pick up guys and they help you lose at the right times, then thats a killer too.

 And to the above points further upthread,  we all want to have the teams that pick up steam midseason and catch fire  around the last few weeks and playoff time....but there is something thats not exactly "thorough" about this.

I remember a season where Wilson got off to an abysmally slow start, I'm guessing 2016-2017-2018 somewhere in that neighborhood. I had him that year, and chucked him to the waiver wire along about week 8.  You know the rest of the story, he caught fire and blazed the rest of the regular season in FF.

 Many writers that year said "Wilson was a league winner, what an amazing second half to the season".

But what those dumb ####s didn't realize, was the majority of his owners that year never even made the playoffs since he tanked them the first 7-9 weeks.  

The teams that survived his extremely low QB numbers early season were few and far between.

LATE EDIT - We all know this, but often won't admit it.  A very large majority of our games is just  MAKING our playoffs, then letting the chips fall where they may.

 TZM

 

[Pip's Invitation]

I remember a season where Wilson got off to an abysmally slow start, I'm guessing 2016-2017-2018 somewhere in that neighborhood. I had him that year, and chucked him to the waiver wire along about week 8.  You know the rest of the story, he caught fire and blazed the rest of the regular season in FF.

 Many writers that year said "Wilson was a league winner, what an amazing second half to the season".

But what those dumb ####s didn't realize, was the majority of his owners that year never even made the playoffs since he tanked them the first 7-9 weeks.  

The teams that survived his extremely low QB numbers early season were few and far between.

LATE EDIT - We all know this, but often won't admit it.  A very large majority of our games is just  MAKING our playoffs, then letting the chips fall where they may.

 TZM

He had big second halves in 2015 and 2016. Not sure which one you're thinking of specifically. A different team of mine won with him in 2016 but was stacked at other positions. When he turned it on in the second half, that team was unstoppable (it also had David Johnson in his big year). A third team rode his second half to the finals in 2015 but he had a bad week 16. 

I agree that playoff seeding usually doesn't matter, especially in redrafts. Just do whatever you can to get there, adjusting however you can. 

 

[da_budman]

There mightbe a bit of truth in that theory for me but I always look back at my roster  after the draft and at the end of the season and there is usually a better than 50% turnover reguardless of how well mt team did any warticular year.  The thing Ive found is that the last few years the more time I put into preparing for  the draft the worst my team seems to be.  Last 2 years Ive finished 1st and 2nd .....  This year I didnt overthing it and again spent less than 2 days preparing. 

 

[TZMarkie]

Yep. I’ve seen a few times where a team gets out red hot, 6-0, 8-2, etc. and craps out in the playoffs because they were really jusy riding a couple hot players and never fortified their team. An injury or a cold game from one their few key players leaves them SOL. Those teams who flirted with 500 and had to win every game down the stretch to make the playoffs have probably better positioned their team for the playoffs. Often the red hot players in September and October aren’t the red hot guys in November and December anyway. 

 I saw this earlier and wanted to expand.  I alluded to this post earlier, but there is another extension that we haven't necessarily covered.

 Yep, everyone wants the hot team late season, the ones that surge when the time is right. (Often this has to do with actual NFL schedules and matchups too)

But on the surface, you are essentially going to need X number of games.  Let's say thats 7 or 8 games in your typical 10 or 12 teamer.  Its important to realize, that in the overall scheme of things each win is just as important as the next.  YOUR WEEK 1 RESULT, IS JUST AS IMPORTANT AT THE END OF THE SEASON, AS YOUR LAST GAME.

I know, everyone late season says  "THIS WEEK IS PARAMOUNT!!! I WIN AND I'M IN~!"  That may indeed be the end result in week 13/14, but  still recency bias.  Perhaps you should have "managed better" earlier in the season, snagged that one better waiver claim, that one handcuff that you figured "might not be important",  NOT rostered 6 WRs when you can only start 2 (which is ridiculous , get your RB depth boys...period end of story) .... regardless of the root cause, that one win in week 2, week 5 or week 6,  that ALL COUNTS at the end. I'm willing to bet we all have had seasons where we wish we had that one more win under our belt going into the last week. Then we wouldn't be in that "win and I'm in" scenario. OR, it would have catapulted us into the playoffs, instead of being knocked out in the final week.

Sure, we have all seen those "hot teams" start off 5-1 or 6-0, then get murdered late season or the playoffs. There are a ton of reasons for that, most we all know and I won't get into a few not-so-apparent others.

 Anyway, @Ilov80s hit the nail on the head.  Often the hot players in one stretch, aren't the hot players in another. But the key is this......... your studs are studs for a reason. You won't be benching them for the "flavor of the week" wire guys, unless its the most extreme matchup circumstances or some other factor.

 The truth is, in our line of work, you simply have to manage most teams well ALL SEASON LONG.   You ever had that blowup team that crushed everyone most every week and never looked back? Sure they happen, but they don't grow on trees. I've never had a season like that honestly, and for every one you stumble upon, theres 1000 others that have to be "managed".

 Everyone wants that late season surging team, but you let me get off to a 5-0 start, or 5-1, and I'll take my shots. Chances are you have a playoff team if you manage it well from then on, and not sit back and relax like some owners do, then they cry about their "lack of depth" at RB because of injuries. Address those things each and every week. I WILL NOT SIT BACK AND RELAX , I still hawk the wire when it opens. I still occasionally make trades when I feel I can improve. (now THERE is a good one, how many of you that sit at 5-1 or 6-0 can admit you still seek trades, not as many as you might think)

 I will give you 2 personal examples........

 EXAMPLE #1 - Way back when I first started fantasy, in one of my first few seasons (playing in 1 mere league each season) I had some brutal luck with injuries. Like, tell your neighbors and friends bad luck. I lost 7 of my first 8 draft picks to injury, fairly early in the season. I don't mean "1 week hammies" either. They all went down with multiple week injuries, and 1-2 were out for the season.  One of my buddies told me it was easily the most horrific luck with injuries he had ever seen. But I was determined.  After an 0-4 start , I took pride in that I wanted to finish "strong" and make the best efforts I could.  I did it all, I made a trade, I worked the waiver wire like a demon, and I found myself "streaming defenses" by necessity before it was fashionable.  I even made a couple "longshot plays" with a QB/WR stack that were out of the norm, in my fantasy matchups I figured to be a big underdog to win.

I made a miraculous run from 0-4, to 10-4 and actually lead my league at the end of the regular season.   Was I smarter than everyone else? No. I put the work in and did what I could. But that is all you can do, try and give yourself the best chance and go from there.  I never quit.     Well, I'd like to say there is a good ending to this story, but there isn't.  I think I ended up starting a QB (this is going way back) in week 1 of the playoffs, and they had a winter storm roll in, and there was a bit of a blizzard, and my QB got next to nothing, and I was gone week one of the playoffs, and ended up finishing 3rd that year.

 EXAMPLE #2 - Completely different than the first..... I was having a rather mediocre season, but scrapping for the playoffs.  I was something like 5-4 going into week 10, but my RB schedules were looking amazing. My stud WRs were performing as expected, not blowing up, but doing well enough to keep me in the race. The only problem was I had lost my "stud QB", which I can't recall who I had that year.  Regardless, I kept looking and watching, and my leagues are a bit different in that some owners carry multiple QBs. So our waiver wires aren't exactly stocked with stellar names at QB along about week 9 lol. I was picking up bottom of the barrel streamers, treading water. Then lo and behold I pick up BLAKE BORTLES.      I'm sure many of you remember his big garbage time run there late one season, and I want to say he put up QB1 numbers like 4/5 or 5/6 of the last few weeks that season, the majority was all garbage time.  He not only led me through the playoffs, but I won a championship in that league too, with Bortles at the helm.  

 Regardless of end result, you must stay on top of things at all times. Manage your teams well ALL THE WAY and realize complacency is your enemy.  I don't want my "worst draft", I want a "good draft", but I personally want to follow all the way through, to the end of season doing everything I can and give myself a chance, thats all we can do.

  TZM

 

[Ilov80s]

I agree with you TZM that a win is a win regardless when it comes. It’s just a matter of complacency 

 

[Truebluey]

Nine out of ten times you got to love your draft - or you’re doing it wrong

I always second guess myself moments after the draft ends. At that time I can reflect and look back and see where I could have drafted differently with perhaps "better" results.

But we don't know. It's just normal human emotion.

 

[Manster]

I don't know about the the original post, but I do know that typically at the end of the season when I look at the league champion I think "that team won?".  It's never the sexy team.  It's the team that scoops up the right guys from the wire when key injuries happen or guys emerge.

 

[candian fantasy guy]

I only pick players I love, ADP means absolutely nothing to me. With that said, my last few positional picks are always made with the intention of being "able" to drop them after week 1. 

I find when doing auctions, my team is so good(in my mind) with little to no players of 1$ value on my roster that making waive wire moves are very difficult. I tend to miss out on those first few weeks, if not more, of free agency.  So this topic is very interesting to me. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I only pick players I love, ADP means absolutely nothing to me. With that said, my last few positional picks are always made with the intention of being "able" to drop them after week 1. 

I find when doing auctions, my team is so good(in my mind) with little to no players of 1$ value on my roster that making waive wire moves are very difficult. I tend to miss out on those first few weeks, if not more, of free agency.  So this topic is very interesting to me. 

I make it a point to never, ever fall in love with my team after a draft.

Every player can be traded. Any player can be benched. Back of the bench players can always be dropped for something better. 

 

[mphtrilogy]

I loved the first half of my two qb draft, and loaded up early on rbs, but the 2nd half of the draft every wr on my watch list seemed to get snatched just before my slot and all the rookies were snatched early as well... I wound up with a lot of vets that aren't sexy anymore, esanders, edelman, dparker and cooks  we shall see if this theory holds true.. maybe it will work out... 

 

[candian fantasy guy]

I make it a point to never, ever fall in love with my team after a draft.

Every player can be traded. Any player can be benched. Back of the bench players can always be dropped for something better. 

Been burnt too many times by being impatient, David Johnson comes to my mind. Lineup decisions is where the weeks are won and lost. 

To me, the idea of not loving my team is a crazy thought. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

To me, the idea of not loving my team is a crazy thought. 

Be more Spock-like. Emotions don’t get fantasy points. 

you can like your draft. Loving your draft makes you complacent. That’s the point of the topic. 

 

[candian fantasy guy]

Be more Spock-like. Emotions don’t get fantasy points. 

you can like your draft. Loving your draft makes you complacent. That’s the point of the topic. 

I would say this topic is upside down to begin with, although very interesting. The only way I could see this as a possible(probably not) strategy would be in leagues that do "worst to first" WW.  

Complacency due to loving your team too much? That's a bit too much, no? I can't imagine spending any amount of $$$ with the intention of not getting a team together that I have planned for and love. Why else would do we obsess about this sport and pass time. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I would say this topic is upside down to begin with, although very interesting. The only way I could see this as a possible(probably not) strategy would be in leagues that do "worst to first" WW.  

Complacency due to loving your team too much? That's a bit too much, no? I can't imagine spending any amount of $$$ with the intention of not getting a team together that I have planned for and love. Why else would do we obsess about this sport and pass time. 

I'm not saying "draft a crappy team" - I made that clear in the OP. You're reading into that. 

Drafts don't always go perfectly. And sometimes taking only players you love means missing value.   And being too in love with your players means not making trades or scouring the wire. That's the point. 

 

[wlwiles]

And being too in love with your players means not making trades or scouring the wire. That's the point. 

There's a very fine line between being too in love with your players vs. being too impatient with slow starters.   I own Swift and Moss in one league with shallow benches.  If James Robinson pops this week (currently on the wire), and Swift doesn't play and Moss only handles 6-7 carries, do I automatically dump one of those guys for Robinson?  Swift's injury could linger, Moss could play second fiddle to Singletary all year, and I am viewed as stubborn by being married to my guys.  Or if Moss supplants DS in Week 3 and becomes the guy I look like a savvy patient owner who doesn't overreact to Week 1.  

There's also some luck involved in who you go after on the wire.  Last year after Week 1 there was a ton of faab and waiver priorities being used on Terry McLaurin and DJ Chark which completely changed the course of the season for those owners.  And there was an almost equal amount thrown at TJ Hockenson, who started getting dropped two weeks later...  

 

[candian fantasy guy]

I'm not saying "draft a crappy team" - I made that clear in the OP. You're reading into that. 

Drafts don't always go perfectly. And sometimes taking only players you love means missing value.   And being too in love with your players means not making trades or scouring the wire. That's the point. 

I guess I don't look at things that way in terms of value during a draft, I use tiers and I am very comfortable with that. Maybe I play in too many leagues and possibly much too comfortable with my tiers list. If I come out of a draft not liking my team, I feel that's a product of me not being prepared and not due to a "bad" or "unlucky" draft. I also understand that my involvement in this pass time is much more than most. I don't get hung up by 1 or 2 bad teams, I have a dozen or so more that are doing well. 

I play the WW as much as anyone else, but I also strive for that 4-0 start. Not may times has starting starting 4-0 been a bad thing or lead me to being complacent. I feel like this is a false narrative just to support this topic. 

 

[candian fantasy guy]

There's a very fine line between being too in love with your players vs. being too impatient with slow starters.   I own Swift and Moss in one league with shallow benches.  If James Robinson pops this week (currently on the wire), and Swift doesn't play and Moss only handles 6-7 carries, do I automatically dump one of those guys for Robinson?  Swift's injury could linger, Moss could play second fiddle to Singletary all year, and I am viewed as stubborn by being married to my guys.  Or if Moss supplants DS in Week 3 and becomes the guy I look like a savvy patient owner who doesn't overreact to Week 1.  

There's also some luck involved in who you go after on the wire.  Last year after Week 1 there was a ton of faab and waiver priorities being used on Terry McLaurin and DJ Chark which completely changed the course of the season for those owners.  And there was an almost equal amount thrown at TJ Hockenson, who started getting dropped two weeks later...  

bingo! It's a fine between being impatient and lucky!

I would say that that every year there a few WR's that pop early on and a few that just waste your FABB budget. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I play the WW as much as anyone else, but I also strive for that 4-0 start. Not may times has starting starting 4-0 been a bad thing or lead me to being complacent. I feel like this is a false narrative just to support this topic. 

Than you do get it. Not everyone does. It's not a false narrative at all. I've seen teams go 5-0 and not make a single move, even if they had the 1-2-3 position on waivers to get a player. 

Last year we had 3 teams win their game 1 by a wide margin. I claimed Marquis Brown at 4. That shouldn't have happened. One told me he thought about it but was happy with his receivers. 

That's the logic that can lose you a league. Now, Brown didn't work out gangbusters - he was hurt a lot and kind of hit & miss. But even if I was happy with my WRs (I was) I don't understand the logic of NOT adding a top waiver add after week 1 because you're happy with your team. I'd ALWAYS rather have too many good players, so I will ALWAYS make that WW move. 

Complacency is real. Just because  you are active after 4-0 starts doesn't mean everyone is.  Obviously this isn't the topic for you, but that doesn't mean you should crap all over the topic. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I would say that that every year there a few WR's that pop early on and a few that just waste your FABB budget. 

Yeah! Like McClaurin last year. What a bum, right? 

 

[habsfan]

I think I am hung up on the word "complacency" too. Might I be more patient early in a season when I like my team? Maybe. It's obviously a lot harder to pull the trigger on WW darlings when you have to drop someone you know has value in order to do it. 

 

[Pipes]

Nine out of ten times you got to love your draft - or you’re doing it wrong

Completely disagree.  It's hard to "win" 90% of your drafts if you have a number of sharks in your league.  I usually like 90% of my drafts but love is high bar to set.

 

[candian fantasy guy]

Yeah! Like McClaurin last year. What a bum, right? 

It's difficult to have a conversation when this is your kind of reply. I clearly wrote that there a few that pop every year. Would you like a list of players that didn't hit their ceiling? I bet it's longer. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It's difficult to have a conversation when this is your kind of reply. I clearly wrote that there a few that pop every year. Would you like a list of players that didn't hit their ceiling? I bet it's longer. 

Much like you are the guru of gurus who always loves his team & works harder than anyone and if you don't love your team you're terrible at FF, eh? 

Like I said - this isn't the topic for you. 

 

[candian fantasy guy]

Much like you are the guru of gurus who always loves his team & works harder than anyone and if you don't love your team you're terrible at FF, eh? 

Like I said - this isn't the topic for you. 

wow, now I get it.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

wow, now I get it.

Yes, your response called out my OP as a "false premise" and you spent your posts bragging about how good you are at FF. 

Not the topic for you. Have a nice day.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Completely disagree.  It's hard to "win" 90% of your drafts if you have a number of sharks in your league.  I usually like 90% of my drafts but love is high bar to set.

This exactly.  

I never get all the players I love. I get some I love, some I like, some i tolerate because I think they'll produce - but I spend most drafts missing the players I love and making due with what's there because I live in a reality where I play with good FF managers who also love good players. 

As such it is incredibly rare that I "love"every player on my team to the point I am completely satisfied with my draft. 

And the point of the topic was about that level of satisfaction as a direct relation to how hard one might work to correct in the early going. And that there may be some complacency by teams that do love their team too much. 

Not every topic is for everyone though. 

 

[candian fantasy guy]

Yes, your response called out my OP as a "false premise" and you spent your posts bragging about how good you are at FF. 

Not the topic for you. Have a nice day.

good posting!

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think I am hung up on the word "complacency" too. Might I be more patient early in a season when I like my team? Maybe. It's obviously a lot harder to pull the trigger on WW darlings when you have to drop someone you know has value in order to do it. 

It's just a word. Don't get too hung up on it. There's no better way to describe a 4-0 team that doesn't want to burn their WW priority or spend a few FAAB to pick up an upside player because they're 4-0 and love every player on their team. 

Some FF managers are more active when they come out of the gate slow, some are more complacent. If you have a better word I'm all ears, but I think it's semantics, and largely besides the point. 

 

[I Am the Stig]

Than you do get it. Not everyone does. It's not a false narrative at all. I've seen teams go 5-0 and not make a single move, even if they had the 1-2-3 position on waivers to get a player. 

Last year we had 3 teams win their game 1 by a wide margin. I claimed Marquis Brown at 4. That shouldn't have happened. One told me he thought about it but was happy with his receivers. 

That's the logic that can lose you a league. Now, Brown didn't work out gangbusters - he was hurt a lot and kind of hit & miss. But even if I was happy with my WRs (I was) I don't understand the logic of NOT adding a top waiver add after week 1 because you're happy with your team. I'd ALWAYS rather have too many good players, so I will ALWAYS make that WW move. 

Complacency is real. Just because  you are active after 4-0 starts doesn't mean everyone is.  Obviously this isn't the topic for you, but that doesn't mean you should crap all over the topic. 

Week 4 and beyond is bye week season and that is what really tests a fantasy owners mettle. The first few weeks success or non-success are based on generally drafting well so most folks are in "set it and forget it" mode. But once the byes start happening and real decisions need to be made is when many owners tune out. 

I don't believe a 4-0 team suddenly became complacent, I just think they are not particularly good at managing a full season. Anyone can come out of a draft and open the season with 4 wins. Getting through the byes unscathed is a different story.

A active WW manager will always be a step ahead during the long hard middle stretch of the bye week season and can make up for a slow start. 

 

[fightingillini]

Alternate title: “Why it might be better to not have a draft you’re thrilled with”.

Ok, not completely literally, but hear me out:

You LOVR your draft. You feel like you’re set at all of the key positions & got all of your “sleepers” dotting your bench. You not only don’t want to scout the FA list, it’s almost irrelevant as you wouldn’t want to drop any of your bench players early since you believe they’ll all be break-out guys.

or

you HATE your draft. You did ok the first few rounds but you hate your bench, you lack depth at several positions, you have 1 too many stud RB and not enough WRs. You’re gonna work the wire like a fiend & throw out 50 trade offers before game 1 ever starts. 

I’ve seen (been in) both scenarios before. This year in redraft, I really like my team. I dealt my 5th WR (Or 6th, depending) for a top 10 DB to address a defensive weak spot, but otherwise I’ve spent the last 3 days watching prospects getting picked up off the wire - some of whom I looked at but had no one to drop. 

I had one of my best years ever the year I was super actively trying to fix draft day mistakes. I scouted the wire closer, and made more team-improving deals than ever. 

Is this counter-intuitive theory accurate, or am I just breathing too much smoky CA air & it’s effecting my brain? 

Discuss! 

Not sure that I would go that far, but I just try to keep in mind how close FF is week to week.  Sure, there will be weeks where there are blowouts.  But most fantasy weeks are won by 20 or less points.  You might win by 20, but just a few bounces helped you win by that.  Which means a 4-0 team could easily be a 1-3 team with different luck.  Look at last night.  KC goes for it on 4th down, and they get a questionable PI call.  Hill eventually catches the 3 YD TD pass.  There is a 6-7 point swing in someone's fantasy matchup if Hill is involved.  All it takes a a few of these and you can win by 20 or lose by 20 or win/lose a really tight one.

Which means that you never stop improving your team whether it's by the WW or trades.  I have seen teams begin 0-3 with a questionable draft and come back to win through the WW and timely trades, and I have seen 4-0 teams fizzle out after a hot start drafting a really good team.  The draft is just one step in the journey to a title.   Never fall in love with your team.  Anyone can be traded (well, it would be really hard for me to trade CMC in a redraft or Mahomes in dynasty), and you bench guys can be cut if there is a better option.  

I just try to be active and keep improving my team and we'll see where the chips fall.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Not sure that I would go that far, but I just try to keep in mind how close FF is week to week.  Sure, there will be weeks where there are blowouts.  But most fantasy weeks are won by 20 or less points.  You might win by 20, but just a few bounces helped you win by that.  Which means a 4-0 team could easily be a 1-3 team with different luck.  Look at last night.  KC goes for it on 4th down, and they get a questionable PI call.  Hill eventually catches the 3 YD TD pass.  There is a 6-7 point swing in someone's fantasy matchup if Hill is involved.  All it takes a a few of these and you can win by 20 or lose by 20 or win/lose a really tight one.

Which means that you never stop improving your team whether it's by the WW or trades.  I have seen teams begin 0-3 with a questionable draft and come back to win through the WW and timely trades, and I have seen 4-0 teams fizzle out after a hot start drafting a really good team.  The draft is just one step in the journey to a title.   Never fall in love with your team.  Anyone can be traded (well, it would be really hard for me to trade CMC in a redraft or Mahomes in dynasty), and you bench guys can be cut if there is a better option.  

I just try to be active and keep improving my team and we'll see where the chips fall.

Solid response, and one I largely agree with. 

something several folks have eluded to but not quite landed on is the fact that “record” could be entirely meaningless to the quality of team.

I’ve seen bad teams go 4-0 and good teams go 0-4… It all depends on who scores what during that stretch. I’ve had a team that won the 10% of the pot “points total” prize go 4-10. Every week I ran into a buzz-saw. While an extreme example, it does happen. 

so to the point of the topic, that 4-0 team that’s sitting back feeling good about their roster & not working as hard on the wire or trying to make trades might be a paper tiger who’s owner really shouldn’t be in love with their team, but is. 

Again; if there’s a better word than complacency, I’m all ears, but that seems to fit the definition. 

 

[ratbast]

If you aren’t competing for WW supremacy then you’re missing a huge boost. By not getting the hot pickups not only do you lose a chip but you lose a trade partner. So using that trade partner ahead of time, and freeing of roster spots is a concept I consider. 
 

Also if your roster is too good top to bottom, you have too many bench points. Great insurance but I want tier upgrades.