Things that make you go hmm (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

It's early and it's only the preseason, but Palmer has been :X .16/35, 189 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTsThat's good for a QB rating of 57.9.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

He's going entirely too early in redraft leagues this year.He's an interception machine.

 

[Keys Myaths]

He's going entirely too early in redraft leagues this year.

He's an interception machine.

There's no good reason to use him as your QB1 this year.He's average. There's a chance that he rises to slightly above-average.

His year is in 2006. No sooner.

 

[jdoggydogg]

It's early and it's only the preseason, but Palmer has been :X .

16/35, 189 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs

That's good for a QB rating of 57.9.

That is pause for concern, I guess. However, he looked pretty solid late last year vs. New England in Foxboro. I think he'll still so well - with upside - this season. Oh, and I don't have Palmer on any of my teams

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

He's going entirely too early in redraft leagues this year.

He's an interception machine.

Young QBs often are.However, FF leagues don't penalize INTs properly, so it's not an overall concern if he can pass for 3800 and 26.

He certainly has the weapons to meet that goal, and is off to a great NFL career statwise for 1st year starters at his age.

 

[CalBear]

I think it's crazy that he's going ahead of guys like Tom Brady, Jake Plummer, Aaron Brooks, and Jake Delhomme. Those are all guys that have good receivers and proven track records. Palmer has good receivers but he finished as the #20 QB last season and threw for less than 3000 yards. I've always thought he was overrated, and I'll certainly take the proven quantities before an unfinished prospect.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I think it's crazy that he's going ahead of guys like Tom Brady, Jake Plummer, Aaron Brooks, and Jake Delhomme. Those are all guys that have good receivers and proven track records. Palmer has good receivers but he finished as the #20 QB last season and threw for less than 3000 yards. I've always thought he was overrated, and I'll certainly take the proven quantities before an unfinished prospect.

I find it crazy he's going ahead of most of the guys he's going ahead of also. MFL has him as a 6th rounder and 10th QB overall as of August 15th and later drafts.He'll definitely finish better than 20th with 3,000 yards in 16 games though.

 

[LHUCKS]

Quite possibly the worst song ever created by man :X

 

[cracKer]

I think it's crazy that he's going ahead of guys like Tom Brady, Jake Plummer, Aaron Brooks, and Jake Delhomme. Those are all guys that have good receivers and proven track records. Palmer has good receivers but he finished as the #20 QB last season and threw for less than 3000 yards. I've always thought he was overrated, and I'll certainly take the proven quantities before an unfinished prospect.

To each his own. Palmer's development and surrounding talent will have him in the 4-8 range by the time the season is complete. Last years season totals mean little, as do these early preseason games.

 

[Bob Magaw]

possibly due to being allowed to sit & watch while kitna played in 2003, he was more advanced than a typical first year starter... i agree with cracker that what he did over the whole year may not be as important as how he finished the season. some time after the midway point, it looked like the light went on, & he began playing as if he had 3-4 years of experience. he had 9 TDs in his final three games & a ton of yards (i think two of these were against tough defenses BAL & NE, who weren't laying down). he has not just a good but one of the best & deepest WR stables in the NFL with top 5 chad but also solid complementary WR in housh, & potentially very dangerous WR3 & WR4 candidates in kelly washington, chris henry & peter warrick... and chris perry could be another weapon if he is finally healthy.other factors include a potentially dangerous run game with rudi & perry, & their defense may not yet be good enough to win games on their own, which could necessiatate a lot of shoot outs & come from behind victories.i got palmer in round 8 of recent FBG staff league as QB1... i would have preferred bulger around round 6 but he didn't last that long... i did get griese earlier than i might have ordinarily gotten my QB2, & the DET handcuff of harrington/garcia late, so i am reasonably comfortable with my depth at the position...it is a flex league where you can start 3 RBs & PPR, so by waiting i was able to scoop up mcgahee, jax, jordan & benson at RB & dre johnson, michael clayton & fitzgerald at WR b4 getting palmer.* he throws one of the prettiest deep balls in the league, has enuf mobility & elusiveness to run out of trouble & keep the play alive, & check out his touch on the short & intermediate routes, where he can already feather it over the LB & in front of the safety better than most NFL QBs... if you break him down by his touch passes, he is imo, much further advanced than many comparable QBs at a similar level of development. many young QBs founder on the rocks of inaccuracy related to technique breakdowns (poor footwork, not squaring up, inconsistent release point, etc), but palmer may have had the most picture perfect mechanics i have ever seen at the combine, & i would think his extreme advancement in this area as well would preclude these kind of technique-related slumps. to paraphrase yogi berra, all that remains for palmer to join the elite ranks of QBs as soon as 2005 is the 90% that is half mental... and he seems to have the requisite work ethic, passion for the game & desire to be great coupled with the humbleness to be coachable that the great ones seem to have. all in all, based on how he finished the year, supporting cast & surrounding talent, his physical traits, character & intangibles, there isn't much to not like.

 

[Biabreakable]

Palmer has great weapons to be sure but I think he is still missing somthing that will keep him from becoming a top 10 Qb.

 

[Oaktown]

Disagree here...I think he will be large....Top 8 or so.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I still need to see it first. He was the beneficiary of a great situation.

 

[Biabreakable]

to paraphrase yogi berra, all that remains for palmer to join the elite ranks of QBs as soon as 2005 is the 90% that is half mental... and he seems to have the requisite work ethic, passion for the game & desire to be great coupled with the humbleness to be coachable that the great ones seem to have. all in all, based on how he finished the year, supporting cast & surrounding talent, his physical traits, character & intangibles, there isn't much to not like.

that is the rub of it. Unfortunitly I think Palmer only 45% of that 90% needed that is half mental. Hard to pin point what exactly that is except to say intangibles. And I think people who are very optimistic about him may be saying woulda coulda shoulda later.

 

[ProudestMonkey]

I still need to see it first. He was the beneficiary of a great situation.

He's still in that same great situation though.

 

[Just Win Baby]

It's early and it's only the preseason, but Palmer has been :X .

16/35, 189 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs

That's good for a QB rating of 57.9.

Well, we know that you are a big Roethlisberger fan. Check his preseason numbers:8/15 (53%) for 64 yards (4.3 ypa), 0 TDs, 1 interception. That's a 36.5 QB rating.

How are you feeling about him?

 

[Family Matters]

I think it's crazy that he's going ahead of guys like Tom Brady, Jake Plummer, Aaron Brooks, and Jake Delhomme.  Those are all guys that have good receivers and proven track records.  Palmer has good receivers but he finished as the #20 QB last season and threw for less than 3000 yards.  I've always thought he was overrated, and I'll certainly take the proven quantities before an unfinished prospect.

To each his own. Palmer's development and surrounding talent will have him in the 4-8 range by the time the season is complete. Last years season totals mean little, as do these early preseason games.

I'm with you on this one. I think Palmer will surprise his doubters. A top 5-6 finish is realistic. And laugh at anyone basing a decision on 2 partial pre-season games. It never ceases to amaze me the weight people wll place on small snapshot of one's performance.

 

[bobspruill]

Gotta say that, given a choice between Palmer and Brees in a redraft league, I'd take Brees. Palmer will be good soon, but I don't think "soon" is this year. Plus I worry about young QB's who play in the same division with Baltimore. The likelihood of setting interception records or winding up in traction is just too high.

 

[buck naked]

If you have not already, you really should check the schedule. Palmer crosses over against the NFC Central and AFC South = ALOT of cupcake defenses. On the other hand, Brees crosses over against both the NFC East and AFC East - OUCH! Many hard defenses.Brees had a very easy schedule last year, and Palmer had the hardest schedule. Given this choice, I'd take Palmer in a heartbeat this year after seeing his last 6 games last year.

 

[GATZ]

Don't know if Palmer's ever going to have the cerebral makeup to really be a big time QB. Has all the physical talent but IMO he'll always be mistake prone. This year's rankings assume a drastic improvemt both for Palmer and Chad Johnson - I think both are ranked too high. I've personally got C. Johnson at WR#8 and Palmer at QB #16. FWIW, I spent the last 8 yrs. in So Cal and a good friend of mine had a younger brother who was Palmer's fraternity brother at USC. This guy's a die hard USC fan and is pulling for Palmer but described him as dumb as a box of rocks. He tends to thrive in non-pressure situations and I see him as a Jeff George type - someone who will constantly tease onlookers with his potential.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I think it's crazy that he's going ahead of guys like Tom Brady, Jake Plummer, Aaron Brooks, and Jake Delhomme.  Those are all guys that have good receivers and proven track records.  Palmer has good receivers but he finished as the #20 QB last season and threw for less than 3000 yards.  I've always thought he was overrated, and I'll certainly take the proven quantities before an unfinished prospect.

To each his own. Palmer's development and surrounding talent will have him in the 4-8 range by the time the season is complete. Last years season totals mean little, as do these early preseason games.

While I agree that last year's total don't mean very much for him, it's the development issue you mention that concerns me.If he has developed as nicely as we had hoped, you think he would be showing it a little more right now. Not last year, but now.

I agree that it's only preseason, and that doesn't mean much. But if you just take into consideration the information you get regarding all players and apply to only some of them.......like Rod Gardner is looking good etc......it's hard to make any sense out of the preseason (it's hard anyway).

I think that you do have to take into account that he's struggling now. Like you say, to each his own. So for me, that means I have taken Carson Palmer ahead of guys like Aaron Brooks and Delhomme (not Brady and Plummer) so instead of REACHING over those guys to grab Palmer, maybe I just try and let him slip to me instead.

Of course there are a couple more preseason games where the 1st team offenses will get more time. Anyone who is interested in Palmer should watch or pay close attention to the results and game threads.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

If you have not already, you really should check the schedule. Palmer crosses over against the NFC Central and AFC South = ALOT of cupcake defenses. On the other hand, Brees crosses over against both the NFC East and AFC East - OUCH! Many hard defenses.

Brees had a very easy schedule last year, and Palmer had the hardest schedule. Given this choice, I'd take Palmer in a heartbeat this year after seeing his last 6 games last year.

In a heartbeat........that's pretty quick. What has Drew Brees done so wrong that you would pass him over without a second thought.He looked very sharp against the Rams the other day.........Rivers is struggling in camp, I don't know what to think of him, but I know I'm not thinking he's starting anytime soon.

I bet you'll be very surprised at how close Brees and Palmer's numbers will be at year's end.

In recent drafts I've been in, Palmer's going 2 rounds ahead of Brees.

 

[PRS Guy]

Carson Palmer had a wonderlic score of 30.Tom Brady = 33Steve Young = 33Carson Palmer = 30Mark Bulger = 29Drew Brees = 28Ben Roethlisberger = 25Looks like he's smart enough to me.I think his speed (4.63 40) and his size are a bigger attribute than people give him credit.Top 10 isn't a stretch at all IMO.

 

[Family Matters]

Don't know if Palmer's ever going to have the cerebral makeup to really be a big time QB. Has all the physical talent but IMO he'll always be mistake prone. This year's rankings assume a drastic improvemt both for Palmer and Chad Johnson - I think both are ranked too high. I've personally got C. Johnson at WR#8 and Palmer at QB #16. FWIW, I spent the last 8 yrs. in So Cal and a good friend of mine had a younger brother who was Palmer's fraternity brother at USC. This guy's a die hard USC fan and is pulling for Palmer but described him as dumb as a box of rocks. He tends to thrive in non-pressure situations and I see him as a Jeff George type - someone who will constantly tease onlookers with his potential.

Wow. Now this is a post you won't see evryday. I really don't know how to respond except to say have you watched him play? Did you see what he was doing last year before the injury? Did you see him take apart Balt, in the 2nd half, on the road? Your description of this guy doesn't play with what we are seeing.So I think I'll go by what I'm seeing with my own eyes rather than to take a college buddy's younger brother's fraternity loving opinion of Palmer that has the sounds of jealousy rather than an impartial opinion. That description just doesn't hold to what we've already witnessed thus far and can easily be deemed inaccurate, to be nice about it.

 

[red]

If you have not already, you really should check the schedule. Palmer crosses over against the NFC Central and AFC South = ALOT of cupcake defenses. On the other hand, Brees crosses over against both the NFC East and AFC East - OUCH! Many hard defenses.

Brees had a very easy schedule last year, and Palmer had the hardest schedule. Given this choice, I'd take Palmer in a heartbeat this year after seeing his last 6 games last year.

 

[massraider]

I think he's the young QB most likely to vault himself into the top 5 range. I've drafted him already in one dynasty league, and did so in the 4th round, over some more established guys, and felt great about it.In a redraft I recently did, he went in the 5th round, I think. Too early, sure, but he's got a great situatuion there, with a decent running game, and a great, great WR.I like his chances a lot this year. In a dynasty or keeper league, there's probablyt only about 4 or 5 guys I like better than him.

 

[CalBear]

I think it's crazy that he's going ahead of guys like Tom Brady, Jake Plummer, Aaron Brooks, and Jake Delhomme. Those are all guys that have good receivers and proven track records. Palmer has good receivers but he finished as the #20 QB last season and threw for less than 3000 yards. I've always thought he was overrated, and I'll certainly take the proven quantities before an unfinished prospect.

To each his own. Palmer's development and surrounding talent will have him in the 4-8 range by the time the season is complete. Last years season totals mean little, as do these early preseason games.

I'm with you on this one. I think Palmer will surprise his doubters. A top 5-6 finish is realistic. And laugh at anyone basing a decision on 2 partial pre-season games. It never ceases to amaze me the weight people wll place on small snapshot of one's performance.

I base it on watching him for 4 years at USC. His stats from his first three full years as starter (he had one year where he played 3 games, got hurt and had a medical redshirt):579/1027 (56.3%), 36 TD, 36 INT

So he only had one good season in college, despite being on a team that was much stronger relative to the teams he was playing than Cincinatti is.

 

[BAT1man]

Carson Palmer had a wonderlic score of 30.

Tom Brady = 33

Steve Young = 33

Carson Palmer = 30

Mark Bulger = 29

Drew Brees = 28

Ben Roethlisberger = 25

Looks like he's smart enough to me.

It's not that Palmer isn't smart. He just doesn't have the correct brain type to excel in the NFL. The Brain Doctor says, "When Carson is relaxed and feeling good, his tools and game will be superb, he'll be able to make all the throws and plays, but if he allows pressure and nerves to overcome him, his Brain Typing should not operate as efficiently (in mental, motor, and spatial skills) as have the top QB Brain Types of the past few decades."Jonathan P. Niednagel-Brain Typing Doctor

You have to read this article... Carson Palmer: Another Manning, or Leaf?[/url

According to Chris Smith's article about o-lines, Cincy has a real good one. If you think that Palmer will get the time he needs to overcome his mental weaknesses, then pick him high. I just don't have that kind of confidence in a guy that really isn't mentally buoilt to succeed in the NFL.

 

[GATZ]

"I really don't know how to respond except to say have you watched him play?" Again, I lived in S. Cal for the last 7 years, so I've saw more of Carson Palmer than just about anyone on these bpoards. Saw just about all of Palmer's games at USC. Carson was the benefactor of his last college season, when the team around him was absolutely stacked. Another poster just listed his complete college stats. I've seen more of the same in the NFL - flashes of brilliance with way too many mistakes for my liking. Again, looking like a Jeff George clone. "Your description of this guy doesn't play with what we are seeing."Put down the Kool Aid and Pom Poms bro . . . with a QB rating of 77.3 and an 18/18 TD/Int ratio, I think my description is more than on point. You mention one half of one game while I look at the past 6 yr's and you call my description inaccurate ? Guess you'd also tell me 2 + 2 doesn't really = 4.

 

[CalBear]

Carson Palmer had a wonderlic score of 30.

Tom Brady = 33

Steve Young = 33

Carson Palmer = 30

Mark Bulger = 29

Drew Brees = 28

Ben Roethlisberger = 25

Looks like he's smart enough to me.

It's not that Palmer isn't smart. He just doesn't have the correct brain type to excel in the NFL. The Brain Doctorsays, "When Carson is relaxed and feeling good, his tools and game will be superb, he'll be able to make all the throws and plays, but if he allows pressure and nerves to overcome him, his Brain Typing should not operate as efficiently (in mental, motor, and spatial skills) as have the top QB Brain Types of the past few decades."Jonathan P. Niednagel-Brain Typing Doctor

The guy said the same thing about Drew Brees. It's a load of hooey, only slightly more interesting than his astrological sign.

 

[BAT1man]

Carson Palmer had a wonderlic score of 30.

Tom Brady = 33

Steve Young = 33

Carson Palmer = 30

Mark Bulger = 29

Drew Brees = 28

Ben Roethlisberger = 25

Looks like he's smart enough to me.

It's not that Palmer isn't smart. He just doesn't have the correct brain type to excel in the NFL. The Brain Doctorsays, "When Carson is relaxed and feeling good, his tools and game will be superb, he'll be able to make all the throws and plays, but if he allows pressure and nerves to overcome him, his Brain Typing should not operate as efficiently (in mental, motor, and spatial skills) as have the top QB Brain Types of the past few decades."Jonathan P. Niednagel-Brain Typing Doctor

The guy said the same thing about Drew Brees. It's a load of hooey, only slightly more interesting than his astrological sign.

Close. He actually was on the Charger staff when they were deciding on whether to draft Ryan Leaf. He said no. The Chargers fired him, but who was right? The Brain Doctor has never made a negative assessment of Drew Brees.In fact, the Brain Doctor has Drew Brees in the same brain category as Tom Brady, but "with mobility".

Wednesday, December 22, 2004

Didn't Use His Head?

Sports

“Tom Brady didn’t use his head late in the 4th quarter" reads one headline. "Tomfoolery" reads another. What happened to one of the NFL's most popular quarterbacks for him to deserve such condescending remarks?

He threw four interceptions in Monday’s game against the dilapidated Dolphins, and one of them was as he was being sacked and completely off-balanced. He couldn't even see the receiver. “You try to make the play when there’s not one to be made, and that’s when mistakes come,” said Brady. It was a crucial mistake, as Miami went on to win 29-28.

No question, Tom Brady is a very good quarterback, even if he’s not your optimal FEIR/ESTP Brain Type. The crucial, last minute mistake doesn’t come as a complete surprise, however, as the FCAR/ENFP will often succumb more to 4th quarter pressures (being a Feeler, and iNtuitive) than his Sensing, Thinking, Right-brained (STP) counterparts. Just as the one headline read, Brady really didn’t use his head (logic), but instead imagined that a play was available.

Every Brain Type will fail at one time or another, but when all is on the line and the pressure hits, your greatest odds for victory will come if you have an experienced FEIR - ESTP throwing for your team. Tom Brady has played for the best NFL "team" in recent years, including the best system and coaching staff. They have played a major role in his success. Yet, the ENFP Brady has also done much to improve himself. He's developed near-perfect throwing mechanics and has dutifully complied with the offensive game plan each week. His NF devotion and loyalty in carrying out the offensive system has been superb. (Drew Brees is also presently doing his FCAR best, coordinating the Chargers game plan. His mobility gives him another advantage.)

It will be interesting to see if ESTP Peyton Manning can carry the Colts on his back through the upcoming playoffs, which is what must happen if they're to win. On the other hand, Tom Brady needn't shoulder as much of the load for another Patriot Super Bowl title.

 

[EBF]

It's early and it's only the preseason, but Palmer has been  :X .

16/35, 189 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs

That's good for a QB rating of 57.9.

Well, we know that you are a big Roethlisberger fan. Check his preseason numbers:8/15 (53%) for 64 yards (4.3 ypa), 0 TDs, 1 interception. That's a 36.5 QB rating.

How are you feeling about him?

How did I know you'd bring that up? He'll be fine. He hasn't thrown half as many passes, so there isn't as much cause for concern.

Also, he doesn't have as bad a history as far as throwing INTs goes. This has always been a problem for Palmer and it doesn't look like he's turned the corner (although the sample size is extremely small).

 

[EBF]

to paraphrase yogi berra, all that remains for palmer to join the elite ranks of QBs as soon as 2005 is the 90% that is half mental... and he seems to have the requisite work ethic, passion for the game & desire to be great coupled with the humbleness to be coachable that the great ones seem to have. all in all, based on how he finished the year, supporting cast & surrounding talent, his physical traits, character & intangibles, there isn't much to not like.

that is the rub of it. Unfortunitly I think Palmer only 45% of that 90% needed that is half mental. Hard to pin point what exactly that is except to say intangibles. And I think people who are very optimistic about him may be saying woulda coulda shoulda later.

I agree completely. I'm not saying that Palmer will be a bust, but I think people have the wrong idea about him. I'm very familiar with him because I watched a lot of his Pac-10 games. My feeling is that he just doesn't have the necessary mental skills to be great. He has all of the physical skills, but I don't think he reads defenses well or makes good decisions under pressure. I think the best case scenario is a Testaverde type career.

 

[Bob Magaw]

people are looking at the same thing but seem to be seeing completely different things... like the blind men & the elephant. i can't believe people seem to be oblivious to the development he showed, IN-SEASON, in just his first year as the starter. he clearly did better in second half of season vis-a-vis first half. and they weren't against cupcake defenses, but included a dramatic comeback against BAL & near victory against NE.unless a guy is a proven, demonstrable bust like akili smith, it would seem natural to factor in progression & improvement in a young QB over time... but i am hearing a lot of people say that because he was mediocre at beginning of his USC career, he will always be mediocre. if he is showing development in just his first year as starter, how relevant are his stats in his first few seasons at USC? did he get to throw it to chad johnson at that time?you guys would have written off brett favre after seeing him play the first season or two... he threw a ton of rocket balls & made many bonehead plays. mcnabb had a distinguished career at syracuse for more than one season... but he put up pretty lackluster stats his first season as the starter in PHI. are there any other QBs who seemed to improve dramatically in second half of 2004, had 9 TDs in a three game span that we also think are mediocre & hopelessly beyond development because of posited mental deficiencies?

 

[EBF]

Bob, the problem is that Palmer really only had 2-3 good games last year. I don't think that's enough evidence to support the idea that he's turned the corner. Virtually any halfway decent NFL starter can have a string of 2-3 good games. That doesn't make him great. I think Palmer is falling victim to the Koren Robinson syndrome. He's a former high pick who flashed top potential at the end of the season. Now people are making the mistake of assuming that he'll become a great player. There's a chance that Carson Palmer will become a great QB, but I think there's also a chance that he'll never be more than mediocre. He's going very high in dynasty drafts (usually QB4-QB5) and I don't think the odds warrant it.

 

[Just Win Baby]

It's early and it's only the preseason, but Palmer has been  :X .

16/35, 189 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs

That's good for a QB rating of 57.9.

Well, we know that you are a big Roethlisberger fan. Check his preseason numbers:8/15 (53%) for 64 yards (4.3 ypa), 0 TDs, 1 interception. That's a 36.5 QB rating.

How are you feeling about him?

How did I know you'd bring that up? He'll be fine. He hasn't thrown half as many passes, so there isn't as much cause for concern.

Also, he doesn't have as bad a history as far as throwing INTs goes. This has always been a problem for Palmer and it doesn't look like he's turned the corner (although the sample size is extremely small).

It's humorous that you want to count a small sample size against Palmer but not against your favorite player.Roethlisberger is potentially a better NFL QB than Palmer... potentially. However, even if that is proven to be the case, Palmer could still easily be a better fantasy QB.

 

[Bob Magaw]

people are looking at the same thing but seem to be seeing completely different things... like the blind men & the elephant.

i can't believe people seem to be oblivious to the development he showed, IN-SEASON, in just his first year as the starter. he clearly did better in second half of season vis-a-vis first half. and they weren't against cupcake defenses, but included a dramatic comeback against BAL & near victory against NE.

unless a guy is a proven, demonstrable bust like akili smith, it would seem natural to factor in progression & improvement in a young QB over time... but i am hearing a lot of people say that because he was mediocre at beginning of his USC career, he will always be mediocre.

if he is showing development in just his first year as starter, how relevant are his stats in his first few seasons at USC? did he get to throw it to chad johnson at that time?

you guys would have written off brett favre after seeing him play the first season or two... he threw a ton of rocket balls & made many bonehead plays. mcnabb had a distinguished career at syracuse for more than one season... but he put up pretty lackluster stats his first season as the starter in PHI.

are there any other QBs who seemed to improve dramatically in second half of 2004, had 9 TDs in a three game span that we also think are mediocre & hopelessly beyond development because of posited mental deficiencies?

He was mediocre, not just in his first few seasons at USC, but through the midway point of his senior year.You have a lot of different sources that watched Palmer extensively in college and have all agreed that he doesn't have "it". Then you have some that didn't watch him in college except for a couple nationally televised games and in the pros.

Who are you going to believe?

the scouts, who break down far more film before a draft than you or i will in our lifetime, were well aware of his failings in his first few seasons, looked at his development over course of his career, & decided he was the consensus #1 pick in the draft.who are you going to believe?

didn't palmer have multiple OCs during his USC career? that would stunt anybody's development. another way to interpret his surge at end of his senior season would be to note that he seem to respond well to high level coaching?

i respect your opinion EBF (next comment downthread)... you could be right... but palmer wasn't just another QB who had great 3 game stretch... he was a first year starter... a lot of first year QBs fare poorly in beginning, middle & end of inaugural campaign... i can't think of a lot actually that had 9 TDs in three game stretch... if there are any, maybe not too many with his #1 overall pedigree.

he does throw too many INTs, but so have some other QBs when not at their best like manning, favre & warner have in recent years, & they turned out alright.

 

[EBF]

It's early and it's only the preseason, but Palmer has been  :X .

16/35, 189 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs

That's good for a QB rating of 57.9.

Well, we know that you are a big Roethlisberger fan. Check his preseason numbers:8/15 (53%) for 64 yards (4.3 ypa), 0 TDs, 1 interception. That's a 36.5 QB rating.

How are you feeling about him?

How did I know you'd bring that up? He'll be fine. He hasn't thrown half as many passes, so there isn't as much cause for concern.

Also, he doesn't have as bad a history as far as throwing INTs goes. This has always been a problem for Palmer and it doesn't look like he's turned the corner (although the sample size is extremely small).

It's humorous that you want to count a small sample size against Palmer but not against your favorite player.Roethlisberger is potentially a better NFL QB than Palmer... potentially. However, even if that is proven to be the case, Palmer could still easily be a better fantasy QB.

Actually, I will admit that Ben's play has been a little bit troubling thus far, but I'm less inclined to believe that it's part of a trend because he has shown that he can maintain a pretty respectable TD/INT ratio over an entire season. Also, he hasn't thrown many balls this preseason and he hasn't had his #1 WR around.

 

[EBF]

the scouts, who break down far more film before a draft than you or i will in our lifetime, were well aware of his failings in his first few seasons, looked at his development over course of his career, & decided he was the consensus #1 pick in the draft.who are you going to believe?

Myself. Scouts have a horrendous track record with QBs. Sure, there's an occasional Manning and McNabb, but let's not forget about the endless supply of guys like Leaf, McNown, Ak. Smith, Shuler, Couch, Druckenmiller, and Mirer. There are more failures than success stories among recent first round QBs. Like I said, I watched Palmer a lot in college. I don't think he has the mental skills of a great one.

i respect your opinion EBF (next comment downthread)... you could be right... but palmer wasn't just another QB who had great 3 game stretch... he was a first year starter... a lot of first year QBs fare poorly in beginning, middle & end of inaugural campaign... i can't think of a lot actually that had 9 TDs in three game stretch... if there are any, maybe not too many with his #1 overall pedigree.

You're right. Nevertheless, a few good games does not prove that he made any progress as a player. All it proves is that he had a few good games. Whether or not you're willing to bank on that being a lasting trend is up to you. I'm certainly cautious when it comes to this player because I've always felt that the hype was greater than the reality.

 

[Family Matters]

I think it's crazy that he's going ahead of guys like Tom Brady, Jake Plummer, Aaron Brooks, and Jake Delhomme.  Those are all guys that have good receivers and proven track records.  Palmer has good receivers but he finished as the #20 QB last season and threw for less than 3000 yards.  I've always thought he was overrated, and I'll certainly take the proven quantities before an unfinished prospect.

To each his own. Palmer's development and surrounding talent will have him in the 4-8 range by the time the season is complete. Last years season totals mean little, as do these early preseason games.

I'm with you on this one. I think Palmer will surprise his doubters. A top 5-6 finish is realistic. And laugh at anyone basing a decision on 2 partial pre-season games. It never ceases to amaze me the weight people wll place on small snapshot of one's performance.

I base it on watching him for 4 years at USC. His stats from his first three full years as starter (he had one year where he played 3 games, got hurt and had a medical redshirt):579/1027 (56.3%), 36 TD, 36 INT

So he only had one good season in college, despite being on a team that was much stronger relative to the teams he was playing than Cincinatti is.

Maybe the problem is he isn't in collecge anymore and hasn't been for 3 years. Based on what would be expected of any starter in the NFL I really like what he's done. He showed dramatic improvement the second half and did so against quality opponets. That's exactly what you like to see.So if you want to base your assessment on his college days then I can understand why you're dissappointed. But if you take into account what he's done as an NFL QB then how could you possibly be dissappointed? You must of thought Favre and Manning were going to be huge busts as well because they did not do well in their first year either.

 

[CalBear]

I am not saying Palmer will definitely be a bust. I am saying that taking a guy who finished last year as QB#20, and looked fairly ragged doing so, ahead of someone like Aaron Brooks, who has been a top-8 QB for four years in a row, makes no sense, even if he has potential. If you want to argue Palmer vs. Roethlisberger, Harrington, or Boller, you can argue that he's done pretty well for a young QB. But that doesn't put him ahead of Brady, Brooks, Delhomme, or Plummer.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I still need to see it first.  He was the beneficiary of a great situation.

He's still in that same great situation though.

I was talking about college, which pushed him high in the draft. He never should have won the Heisman, but votes were split for the RB's, and he had a big game against ND on national TV. Mike Williams was a monster, too. The team/system was just awesome. Hell, look what Leinart has done. Anyway, it fell into his lap, and the hype followed. So, he could be the real deal, but I'll need to see it first, is all.

I won't be drafting him.

 

[EBF]

If he threw a lot of INTs in college then what leads you to believe that he won't do the same in the NFL? I think that's the point a lot of people are making here. Palmer still seems to be plagued by the same problems that troubled him in college.

You must of thought Favre and Manning were going to be huge busts as well because they did not do well in their first year either.

Kyle Boller, Joey Harrington, Ryan Leaf and Akili Smith also had bad first years. None of them turned into Manning or Favre. My point is that you can't assume that Palmer will become great just because other QBs who struggled early in their careers went on to become great.

 

[PRS Guy]

Carson Palmer had a wonderlic score of 30.

Tom Brady = 33

Steve Young = 33

Carson Palmer = 30

Mark Bulger = 29

Drew Brees = 28

Ben Roethlisberger = 25

Looks like he's smart enough to me.

It's not that Palmer isn't smart. He just doesn't have the correct brain type to excel in the NFL. The Brain Doctor says, "When Carson is relaxed and feeling good, his tools and game will be superb, he'll be able to make all the throws and plays, but if he allows pressure and nerves to overcome him, his Brain Typing should not operate as efficiently (in mental, motor, and spatial skills) as have the top QB Brain Types of the past few decades."Jonathan P. Niednagel-Brain Typing Doctor

You have to read this article... Carson Palmer: Another Manning, or Leaf?[/url

According to Chris Smith's article about o-lines, Cincy has a real good one. If you think that Palmer will get the time he needs to overcome his mental weaknesses, then pick him high. I just don't have that kind of confidence in a guy that really isn't mentally buoilt to succeed in the NFL.

I've read that article before. The great thing he fails to mention is that there are many successful QB's in the NFL that don't have the ESTP brain type that Manning, Favre and Marino have. Carson has a brain type that is very similar to Daunte Culpepper's. I sure would be pissed if Carson ended up with Culpepper like numbers.If you aren't going to pick a QB becuase some cracked out shrink says he doesn't like the way Palmer makes funny faces then by all means pass him up. Maybe he'll never be Marino, but I'd bet he has all the tools that would allow him to have a better season than Kitna did in 2003. If he cracks the top 7 QB's and I can take him in the 11-13th overall QB range, I'd call that a win.

 

[Family Matters]

If he threw a lot of INTs in college then what leads you to believe that he won't do the same in the NFL? I think that's the point a lot of people are making here. Palmer still seems to be plagued by the same problems that troubled him in college.

You must of thought Favre and Manning were going to be huge busts as well because they did not do well in their first year either.

Kyle Boller, Joey Harrington, Ryan Leaf and Akili Smith also had bad first years. None of them turned into Manning or Favre. My point is that you can't assume that Palmer will become great just because other QBs who struggled early in their careers went on to become great.

If you're going to quote it's a good idea to use all the information. Selective quoting can really change the commenatry around. Here's the entire comment:

So if you want to base your assessment on his college days then I can understand why you're dissappointed. But if you take into account what he's done as an NFL QB then how could you possibly be dissappointed? You must of thought Favre and Manning were going to be huge busts as well because they did not do well in their first year either.

Sounds a little different when you read the whole quote. So back to Palmer. Why are you not talking about his performance from last year's 2nd half? Clearly he improved. Here are some stats to validate that:Games 1-8: He ranked 26th in passing TD's, 18 in yards 4th in INT's and had a 6.7 YPA for the season.

Games 9-13: He ranked 3rd in passing TD's, 4th in yards and 7th INT's and had a 7.63 YPA. These were not bad teams. He played Pitts, Balt & NE in the 2nd half so we're not talking about bad D's. These guys were the best the NFL has to offer. That's very impressive if you ask me.

While the INT's didn't improve as much as I'd like the one thing to point out is that he had 2 games whereby he threw 3 picks. 1 against Balt and 1 against Cleve in what can only be described as a very strange game that I watched.

Overall the improvement was outstanding. Can you say with a straight face that this isn't impressive? Be honest.

 

[Peyton Marino]

I wouldn't judge anyone on 3 quarters. That's not even a full game.

 

[EBF]

Sounds a little different when you read the whole quote. So back to Palmer. Why are you not talking about his performance from last year's 2nd half? Clearly he improved. Here are some stats to validate that:

Games 1-8: He ranked 26th in passing TD's, 18 in yards 4th in INT's and had a 6.7 YPA for the season.

Games 9-13: He ranked 3rd in passing TD's, 4th in yards and 7th INT's and had a 7.63 YPA. These were not bad teams. He played Pitts, Balt & NE in the 2nd half so we're not talking about bad D's. These guys were the best the NFL has to offer. That's very impressive if you ask me.

Yes, and? He played poorly for much of the season and proceeded to have a four game stretch in which he played better. That doesn't make him a star.

Overall the improvement was outstanding. Can you say with a straight face that this isn't impressive? Be honest.

Yes. You missed the point of what I said. I never argued that Palmer didn't finish strong in 2004. My argument is that his strong finish doesn't necessarily reflect permanent growth as a player. Like I said, I think people are falling victim to the Koren Robinson fallacy. When a young, highly-drafted player finishes a season with a few good games, people seem to automatically assume that he's turned the corner. As guys like William Green and Koren Robinson have shown, that's not always the case. Sometimes a string of good games is just a string of good games. Even bad players have good stretches.

To be clear, I'm not necessarily saying that Palmer is bad. I'm saying that his play thus far doesn't warrant a top 5 dynasty QB ranking. He's only had 2-3 good games and if it weren't for his status as a former #1 pick then I think expectations would be far more realistic.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

To be clear, I'm not necessarily saying that Palmer is bad. I'm saying that his play thus far doesn't warrant a top 5 dynasty QB ranking. He's only had 2-3 good games and if it weren't for his status as a former #1 pick then I think expectations would be far more realistic.

Agree. And I'll add that his #1 status, for reasons I previously stated, was suspect to begin with.Again, I won't be drafting him.

 

[PRS Guy]

Sounds a little different when you read the whole quote. So back to Palmer. Why are you not talking about his performance from last year's 2nd half? Clearly he improved. Here are some stats to validate that:

Games 1-8: He ranked 26th in passing TD's, 18 in yards 4th in INT's and had a 6.7 YPA for the season.

Games 9-13: He ranked 3rd in passing TD's, 4th in yards and 7th INT's and had a 7.63 YPA. These were not bad teams. He played Pitts, Balt & NE in the 2nd half so we're not talking about bad D's. These guys were the best the NFL has to offer. That's very impressive if you ask me.

Yes, and? He played poorly for much of the season and proceeded to have a four game stretch in which he played better. That doesn't make him a star.

Overall the improvement was outstanding. Can you say with a straight face that this isn't impressive? Be honest.

Yes. You missed the point of what I said. I never argued that Palmer didn't finish strong in 2004. My argument is that his strong finish doesn't necessarily reflect permanent growth as a player.

Like I said, I think people are falling victim to the Koren Robinson fallacy. When a young, highly-drafted player finishes a season with a few good games, people seem to automatically assume that he's turned the corner. As guys like William Green and Koren Robinson have shown, that's not always the case. Sometimes a string of good games is just a string of good games. Even bad players have good stretches.

To be clear, I'm not necessarily saying that Palmer is bad. I'm saying that his play thus far doesn't warrant a top 5 dynasty QB ranking. He's only had 2-3 good games and if it weren't for his status as a former #1 pick then I think expectations would be far more realistic.

Take Palmer's pre-injury weekly average and project it over 16 games and I'd have him finishing right between Tom Brady and Matt Hassellbeck last year. Is it that preposterous to think that he'd be able to improve on the numbers he posted in his first year as an NFL starter?

He managed QB ratings of 105, 94, 101, 127 and 110 last year in various games in his first year as a starter. Those are every bit as good as Drew Brees totaled in his first 3 seasons in the NFL.

To say that Palmer is incapable of performing at a high level seems odd to me. The connection between Palmer and Robinson is even more perplexing.

 

[gman8343]

Like I said, I think people are falling victim to the Koren Robinson fallacy. When a young, highly-drafted player finishes a season with a few good games, people seem to automatically assume that he's turned the corner. As guys like William Green and Koren Robinson have shown, that's not always the case. Sometimes a string of good games is just a string of good games. Even bad players have good stretches.

Not sure KRob & Green are great comparisons -- both those guys have/had huge off the field issues that undoubtedly effected their play. Far as I know Palmer doesn't have any substance abuse problems etc.