There's no good reason to use him as your QB1 this year.He's average. There's a chance that he rises to slightly above-average.He's going entirely too early in redraft leagues this year.
He's an interception machine.
That is pause for concern, I guess. However, he looked pretty solid late last year vs. New England in Foxboro. I think he'll still so well - with upside - this season. Oh, and I don't have Palmer on any of my teamsIt's early and it's only the preseason, but Palmer has been :X .
16/35, 189 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
That's good for a QB rating of 57.9.
Young QBs often are.However, FF leagues don't penalize INTs properly, so it's not an overall concern if he can pass for 3800 and 26.He's going entirely too early in redraft leagues this year.
He's an interception machine.
I find it crazy he's going ahead of most of the guys he's going ahead of also. MFL has him as a 6th rounder and 10th QB overall as of August 15th and later drafts.He'll definitely finish better than 20th with 3,000 yards in 16 games though.I think it's crazy that he's going ahead of guys like Tom Brady, Jake Plummer, Aaron Brooks, and Jake Delhomme. Those are all guys that have good receivers and proven track records. Palmer has good receivers but he finished as the #20 QB last season and threw for less than 3000 yards. I've always thought he was overrated, and I'll certainly take the proven quantities before an unfinished prospect.
To each his own. Palmer's development and surrounding talent will have him in the 4-8 range by the time the season is complete. Last years season totals mean little, as do these early preseason games.I think it's crazy that he's going ahead of guys like Tom Brady, Jake Plummer, Aaron Brooks, and Jake Delhomme. Those are all guys that have good receivers and proven track records. Palmer has good receivers but he finished as the #20 QB last season and threw for less than 3000 yards. I've always thought he was overrated, and I'll certainly take the proven quantities before an unfinished prospect.
that is the rub of it. Unfortunitly I think Palmer only 45% of that 90% needed that is half mental. Hard to pin point what exactly that is except to say intangibles. And I think people who are very optimistic about him may be saying woulda coulda shoulda later.to paraphrase yogi berra, all that remains for palmer to join the elite ranks of QBs as soon as 2005 is the 90% that is half mental... and he seems to have the requisite work ethic, passion for the game & desire to be great coupled with the humbleness to be coachable that the great ones seem to have. all in all, based on how he finished the year, supporting cast & surrounding talent, his physical traits, character & intangibles, there isn't much to not like.
He's still in that same great situation though.I still need to see it first. He was the beneficiary of a great situation.
Well, we know that you are a big Roethlisberger fan. Check his preseason numbers:8/15 (53%) for 64 yards (4.3 ypa), 0 TDs, 1 interception. That's a 36.5 QB rating.It's early and it's only the preseason, but Palmer has been :X .
16/35, 189 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
That's good for a QB rating of 57.9.
I'm with you on this one. I think Palmer will surprise his doubters. A top 5-6 finish is realistic. And laugh at anyone basing a decision on 2 partial pre-season games. It never ceases to amaze me the weight people wll place on small snapshot of one's performance.To each his own. Palmer's development and surrounding talent will have him in the 4-8 range by the time the season is complete. Last years season totals mean little, as do these early preseason games.I think it's crazy that he's going ahead of guys like Tom Brady, Jake Plummer, Aaron Brooks, and Jake Delhomme. Those are all guys that have good receivers and proven track records. Palmer has good receivers but he finished as the #20 QB last season and threw for less than 3000 yards. I've always thought he was overrated, and I'll certainly take the proven quantities before an unfinished prospect.
While I agree that last year's total don't mean very much for him, it's the development issue you mention that concerns me.If he has developed as nicely as we had hoped, you think he would be showing it a little more right now. Not last year, but now.To each his own. Palmer's development and surrounding talent will have him in the 4-8 range by the time the season is complete. Last years season totals mean little, as do these early preseason games.I think it's crazy that he's going ahead of guys like Tom Brady, Jake Plummer, Aaron Brooks, and Jake Delhomme. Those are all guys that have good receivers and proven track records. Palmer has good receivers but he finished as the #20 QB last season and threw for less than 3000 yards. I've always thought he was overrated, and I'll certainly take the proven quantities before an unfinished prospect.
In a heartbeat........that's pretty quick. What has Drew Brees done so wrong that you would pass him over without a second thought.He looked very sharp against the Rams the other day.........Rivers is struggling in camp, I don't know what to think of him, but I know I'm not thinking he's starting anytime soon.If you have not already, you really should check the schedule. Palmer crosses over against the NFC Central and AFC South = ALOT of cupcake defenses. On the other hand, Brees crosses over against both the NFC East and AFC East - OUCH! Many hard defenses.
Brees had a very easy schedule last year, and Palmer had the hardest schedule. Given this choice, I'd take Palmer in a heartbeat this year after seeing his last 6 games last year.
Wow. Now this is a post you won't see evryday. I really don't know how to respond except to say have you watched him play? Did you see what he was doing last year before the injury? Did you see him take apart Balt, in the 2nd half, on the road? Your description of this guy doesn't play with what we are seeing.So I think I'll go by what I'm seeing with my own eyes rather than to take a college buddy's younger brother's fraternity loving opinion of Palmer that has the sounds of jealousy rather than an impartial opinion. That description just doesn't hold to what we've already witnessed thus far and can easily be deemed inaccurate, to be nice about it.Don't know if Palmer's ever going to have the cerebral makeup to really be a big time QB. Has all the physical talent but IMO he'll always be mistake prone. This year's rankings assume a drastic improvemt both for Palmer and Chad Johnson - I think both are ranked too high. I've personally got C. Johnson at WR#8 and Palmer at QB #16. FWIW, I spent the last 8 yrs. in So Cal and a good friend of mine had a younger brother who was Palmer's fraternity brother at USC. This guy's a die hard USC fan and is pulling for Palmer but described him as dumb as a box of rocks. He tends to thrive in non-pressure situations and I see him as a Jeff George type - someone who will constantly tease onlookers with his potential.
If you have not already, you really should check the schedule. Palmer crosses over against the NFC Central and AFC South = ALOT of cupcake defenses. On the other hand, Brees crosses over against both the NFC East and AFC East - OUCH! Many hard defenses.
Brees had a very easy schedule last year, and Palmer had the hardest schedule. Given this choice, I'd take Palmer in a heartbeat this year after seeing his last 6 games last year.
I base it on watching him for 4 years at USC. His stats from his first three full years as starter (he had one year where he played 3 games, got hurt and had a medical redshirt):579/1027 (56.3%), 36 TD, 36 INTI'm with you on this one. I think Palmer will surprise his doubters. A top 5-6 finish is realistic. And laugh at anyone basing a decision on 2 partial pre-season games. It never ceases to amaze me the weight people wll place on small snapshot of one's performance.To each his own. Palmer's development and surrounding talent will have him in the 4-8 range by the time the season is complete. Last years season totals mean little, as do these early preseason games.I think it's crazy that he's going ahead of guys like Tom Brady, Jake Plummer, Aaron Brooks, and Jake Delhomme. Those are all guys that have good receivers and proven track records. Palmer has good receivers but he finished as the #20 QB last season and threw for less than 3000 yards. I've always thought he was overrated, and I'll certainly take the proven quantities before an unfinished prospect.
It's not that Palmer isn't smart. He just doesn't have the correct brain type to excel in the NFL. The Brain Doctor says, "When Carson is relaxed and feeling good, his tools and game will be superb, he'll be able to make all the throws and plays, but if he allows pressure and nerves to overcome him, his Brain Typing should not operate as efficiently (in mental, motor, and spatial skills) as have the top QB Brain Types of the past few decades."Jonathan P. Niednagel-Brain Typing DoctorCarson Palmer had a wonderlic score of 30.
Tom Brady = 33
Steve Young = 33
Carson Palmer = 30
Mark Bulger = 29
Drew Brees = 28
Ben Roethlisberger = 25
Looks like he's smart enough to me.
The guy said the same thing about Drew Brees. It's a load of hooey, only slightly more interesting than his astrological sign.It's not that Palmer isn't smart. He just doesn't have the correct brain type to excel in the NFL. The Brain Doctorsays, "When Carson is relaxed and feeling good, his tools and game will be superb, he'll be able to make all the throws and plays, but if he allows pressure and nerves to overcome him, his Brain Typing should not operate as efficiently (in mental, motor, and spatial skills) as have the top QB Brain Types of the past few decades."Jonathan P. Niednagel-Brain Typing DoctorCarson Palmer had a wonderlic score of 30.
Tom Brady = 33
Steve Young = 33
Carson Palmer = 30
Mark Bulger = 29
Drew Brees = 28
Ben Roethlisberger = 25
Looks like he's smart enough to me.
Close. He actually was on the Charger staff when they were deciding on whether to draft Ryan Leaf. He said no. The Chargers fired him, but who was right? The Brain Doctor has never made a negative assessment of Drew Brees.In fact, the Brain Doctor has Drew Brees in the same brain category as Tom Brady, but "with mobility".The guy said the same thing about Drew Brees. It's a load of hooey, only slightly more interesting than his astrological sign.It's not that Palmer isn't smart. He just doesn't have the correct brain type to excel in the NFL. The Brain Doctorsays, "When Carson is relaxed and feeling good, his tools and game will be superb, he'll be able to make all the throws and plays, but if he allows pressure and nerves to overcome him, his Brain Typing should not operate as efficiently (in mental, motor, and spatial skills) as have the top QB Brain Types of the past few decades."Jonathan P. Niednagel-Brain Typing DoctorCarson Palmer had a wonderlic score of 30.
Tom Brady = 33
Steve Young = 33
Carson Palmer = 30
Mark Bulger = 29
Drew Brees = 28
Ben Roethlisberger = 25
Looks like he's smart enough to me.
How did I know you'd bring that up?Well, we know that you are a big Roethlisberger fan. Check his preseason numbers:8/15 (53%) for 64 yards (4.3 ypa), 0 TDs, 1 interception. That's a 36.5 QB rating.It's early and it's only the preseason, but Palmer has been :X .
16/35, 189 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
That's good for a QB rating of 57.9.
How are you feeling about him?
I agree completely. I'm not saying that Palmer will be a bust, but I think people have the wrong idea about him. I'm very familiar with him because I watched a lot of his Pac-10 games. My feeling is that he just doesn't have the necessary mental skills to be great. He has all of the physical skills, but I don't think he reads defenses well or makes good decisions under pressure. I think the best case scenario is a Testaverde type career.that is the rub of it. Unfortunitly I think Palmer only 45% of that 90% needed that is half mental. Hard to pin point what exactly that is except to say intangibles. And I think people who are very optimistic about him may be saying woulda coulda shoulda later.to paraphrase yogi berra, all that remains for palmer to join the elite ranks of QBs as soon as 2005 is the 90% that is half mental... and he seems to have the requisite work ethic, passion for the game & desire to be great coupled with the humbleness to be coachable that the great ones seem to have. all in all, based on how he finished the year, supporting cast & surrounding talent, his physical traits, character & intangibles, there isn't much to not like.
It's humorous that you want to count a small sample size against Palmer but not against your favorite player.Roethlisberger is potentially a better NFL QB than Palmer... potentially. However, even if that is proven to be the case, Palmer could still easily be a better fantasy QB.How did I know you'd bring that up?Well, we know that you are a big Roethlisberger fan. Check his preseason numbers:8/15 (53%) for 64 yards (4.3 ypa), 0 TDs, 1 interception. That's a 36.5 QB rating.It's early and it's only the preseason, but Palmer has been :X .
16/35, 189 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
That's good for a QB rating of 57.9.
How are you feeling about him?He'll be fine. He hasn't thrown half as many passes, so there isn't as much cause for concern.
Also, he doesn't have as bad a history as far as throwing INTs goes. This has always been a problem for Palmer and it doesn't look like he's turned the corner (although the sample size is extremely small).
the scouts, who break down far more film before a draft than you or i will in our lifetime, were well aware of his failings in his first few seasons, looked at his development over course of his career, & decided he was the consensus #1 pick in the draft.who are you going to believe?He was mediocre, not just in his first few seasons at USC, but through the midway point of his senior year.You have a lot of different sources that watched Palmer extensively in college and have all agreed that he doesn't have "it". Then you have some that didn't watch him in college except for a couple nationally televised games and in the pros.people are looking at the same thing but seem to be seeing completely different things... like the blind men & the elephant.![]()
i can't believe people seem to be oblivious to the development he showed, IN-SEASON, in just his first year as the starter. he clearly did better in second half of season vis-a-vis first half. and they weren't against cupcake defenses, but included a dramatic comeback against BAL & near victory against NE.
unless a guy is a proven, demonstrable bust like akili smith, it would seem natural to factor in progression & improvement in a young QB over time... but i am hearing a lot of people say that because he was mediocre at beginning of his USC career, he will always be mediocre.
if he is showing development in just his first year as starter, how relevant are his stats in his first few seasons at USC? did he get to throw it to chad johnson at that time?
you guys would have written off brett favre after seeing him play the first season or two... he threw a ton of rocket balls & made many bonehead plays. mcnabb had a distinguished career at syracuse for more than one season... but he put up pretty lackluster stats his first season as the starter in PHI.
are there any other QBs who seemed to improve dramatically in second half of 2004, had 9 TDs in a three game span that we also think are mediocre & hopelessly beyond development because of posited mental deficiencies?
Who are you going to believe?
Actually, I will admit that Ben's play has been a little bit troubling thus far, but I'm less inclined to believe that it's part of a trend because he has shown that he can maintain a pretty respectable TD/INT ratio over an entire season. Also, he hasn't thrown many balls this preseason and he hasn't had his #1 WR around.It's humorous that you want to count a small sample size against Palmer but not against your favorite player.Roethlisberger is potentially a better NFL QB than Palmer... potentially. However, even if that is proven to be the case, Palmer could still easily be a better fantasy QB.How did I know you'd bring that up?Well, we know that you are a big Roethlisberger fan. Check his preseason numbers:8/15 (53%) for 64 yards (4.3 ypa), 0 TDs, 1 interception. That's a 36.5 QB rating.It's early and it's only the preseason, but Palmer has been :X .
16/35, 189 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
That's good for a QB rating of 57.9.
How are you feeling about him?He'll be fine. He hasn't thrown half as many passes, so there isn't as much cause for concern.
Also, he doesn't have as bad a history as far as throwing INTs goes. This has always been a problem for Palmer and it doesn't look like he's turned the corner (although the sample size is extremely small).
Myself. Scouts have a horrendous track record with QBs. Sure, there's an occasional Manning and McNabb, but let's not forget about the endless supply of guys like Leaf, McNown, Ak. Smith, Shuler, Couch, Druckenmiller, and Mirer. There are more failures than success stories among recent first round QBs. Like I said, I watched Palmer a lot in college. I don't think he has the mental skills of a great one.the scouts, who break down far more film before a draft than you or i will in our lifetime, were well aware of his failings in his first few seasons, looked at his development over course of his career, & decided he was the consensus #1 pick in the draft.who are you going to believe?
You're right. Nevertheless, a few good games does not prove that he made any progress as a player. All it proves is that he had a few good games. Whether or not you're willing to bank on that being a lasting trend is up to you. I'm certainly cautious when it comes to this player because I've always felt that the hype was greater than the reality.i respect your opinion EBF (next comment downthread)... you could be right... but palmer wasn't just another QB who had great 3 game stretch... he was a first year starter... a lot of first year QBs fare poorly in beginning, middle & end of inaugural campaign... i can't think of a lot actually that had 9 TDs in three game stretch... if there are any, maybe not too many with his #1 overall pedigree.
Maybe the problem is he isn't in collecge anymore and hasn't been for 3 years. Based on what would be expected of any starter in the NFL I really like what he's done. He showed dramatic improvement the second half and did so against quality opponets. That's exactly what you like to see.So if you want to base your assessment on his college days then I can understand why you're dissappointed. But if you take into account what he's done as an NFL QB then how could you possibly be dissappointed? You must of thought Favre and Manning were going to be huge busts as well because they did not do well in their first year either.I base it on watching him for 4 years at USC. His stats from his first three full years as starter (he had one year where he played 3 games, got hurt and had a medical redshirt):579/1027 (56.3%), 36 TD, 36 INTI'm with you on this one. I think Palmer will surprise his doubters. A top 5-6 finish is realistic. And laugh at anyone basing a decision on 2 partial pre-season games. It never ceases to amaze me the weight people wll place on small snapshot of one's performance.To each his own. Palmer's development and surrounding talent will have him in the 4-8 range by the time the season is complete. Last years season totals mean little, as do these early preseason games.I think it's crazy that he's going ahead of guys like Tom Brady, Jake Plummer, Aaron Brooks, and Jake Delhomme. Those are all guys that have good receivers and proven track records. Palmer has good receivers but he finished as the #20 QB last season and threw for less than 3000 yards. I've always thought he was overrated, and I'll certainly take the proven quantities before an unfinished prospect.
So he only had one good season in college, despite being on a team that was much stronger relative to the teams he was playing than Cincinatti is.
I was talking about college, which pushed him high in the draft. He never should have won the Heisman, but votes were split for the RB's, and he had a big game against ND on national TV. Mike Williams was a monster, too. The team/system was just awesome. Hell, look what Leinart has done. Anyway, it fell into his lap, and the hype followed. So, he could be the real deal, but I'll need to see it first, is all.He's still in that same great situation though.I still need to see it first. He was the beneficiary of a great situation.![]()
Kyle Boller, Joey Harrington, Ryan Leaf and Akili Smith also had bad first years. None of them turned into Manning or Favre. My point is that you can't assume that Palmer will become great just because other QBs who struggled early in their careers went on to become great.You must of thought Favre and Manning were going to be huge busts as well because they did not do well in their first year either.
I've read that article before. The great thing he fails to mention is that there are many successful QB's in the NFL that don't have the ESTP brain type that Manning, Favre and Marino have. Carson has a brain type that is very similar to Daunte Culpepper's. I sure would be pissed if Carson ended up with Culpepper like numbers.If you aren't going to pick a QB becuase some cracked out shrink says he doesn't like the way Palmer makes funny faces then by all means pass him up. Maybe he'll never be Marino, but I'd bet he has all the tools that would allow him to have a better season than Kitna did in 2003. If he cracks the top 7 QB's and I can take him in the 11-13th overall QB range, I'd call that a win.It's not that Palmer isn't smart. He just doesn't have the correct brain type to excel in the NFL. The Brain Doctor says, "When Carson is relaxed and feeling good, his tools and game will be superb, he'll be able to make all the throws and plays, but if he allows pressure and nerves to overcome him, his Brain Typing should not operate as efficiently (in mental, motor, and spatial skills) as have the top QB Brain Types of the past few decades."Jonathan P. Niednagel-Brain Typing DoctorCarson Palmer had a wonderlic score of 30.
Tom Brady = 33
Steve Young = 33
Carson Palmer = 30
Mark Bulger = 29
Drew Brees = 28
Ben Roethlisberger = 25
Looks like he's smart enough to me.
You have to read this article... Carson Palmer: Another Manning, or Leaf?[/url
According to Chris Smith's article about o-lines, Cincy has a real good one. If you think that Palmer will get the time he needs to overcome his mental weaknesses, then pick him high. I just don't have that kind of confidence in a guy that really isn't mentally buoilt to succeed in the NFL.
If you're going to quote it's a good idea to use all the information. Selective quoting can really change the commenatry around. Here's the entire comment:If he threw a lot of INTs in college then what leads you to believe that he won't do the same in the NFL? I think that's the point a lot of people are making here. Palmer still seems to be plagued by the same problems that troubled him in college.
Kyle Boller, Joey Harrington, Ryan Leaf and Akili Smith also had bad first years. None of them turned into Manning or Favre. My point is that you can't assume that Palmer will become great just because other QBs who struggled early in their careers went on to become great.You must of thought Favre and Manning were going to be huge busts as well because they did not do well in their first year either.
Sounds a little different when you read the whole quote. So back to Palmer. Why are you not talking about his performance from last year's 2nd half? Clearly he improved. Here are some stats to validate that:Games 1-8: He ranked 26th in passing TD's, 18 in yards 4th in INT's and had a 6.7 YPA for the season.So if you want to base your assessment on his college days then I can understand why you're dissappointed. But if you take into account what he's done as an NFL QB then how could you possibly be dissappointed? You must of thought Favre and Manning were going to be huge busts as well because they did not do well in their first year either.
Yes, and? He played poorly for much of the season and proceeded to have a four game stretch in which he played better. That doesn't make him a star.Sounds a little different when you read the whole quote. So back to Palmer. Why are you not talking about his performance from last year's 2nd half? Clearly he improved. Here are some stats to validate that:
Games 1-8: He ranked 26th in passing TD's, 18 in yards 4th in INT's and had a 6.7 YPA for the season.
Games 9-13: He ranked 3rd in passing TD's, 4th in yards and 7th INT's and had a 7.63 YPA. These were not bad teams. He played Pitts, Balt & NE in the 2nd half so we're not talking about bad D's. These guys were the best the NFL has to offer. That's very impressive if you ask me.
Yes. You missed the point of what I said. I never argued that Palmer didn't finish strong in 2004. My argument is that his strong finish doesn't necessarily reflect permanent growth as a player. Like I said, I think people are falling victim to the Koren Robinson fallacy. When a young, highly-drafted player finishes a season with a few good games, people seem to automatically assume that he's turned the corner. As guys like William Green and Koren Robinson have shown, that's not always the case. Sometimes a string of good games is just a string of good games. Even bad players have good stretches.Overall the improvement was outstanding. Can you say with a straight face that this isn't impressive? Be honest.
Agree. And I'll add that his #1 status, for reasons I previously stated, was suspect to begin with.Again, I won't be drafting him.To be clear, I'm not necessarily saying that Palmer is bad. I'm saying that his play thus far doesn't warrant a top 5 dynasty QB ranking. He's only had 2-3 good games and if it weren't for his status as a former #1 pick then I think expectations would be far more realistic.
Take Palmer's pre-injury weekly average and project it over 16 games and I'd have him finishing right between Tom Brady and Matt Hassellbeck last year. Is it that preposterous to think that he'd be able to improve on the numbers he posted in his first year as an NFL starter?Yes, and? He played poorly for much of the season and proceeded to have a four game stretch in which he played better. That doesn't make him a star.Sounds a little different when you read the whole quote. So back to Palmer. Why are you not talking about his performance from last year's 2nd half? Clearly he improved. Here are some stats to validate that:
Games 1-8: He ranked 26th in passing TD's, 18 in yards 4th in INT's and had a 6.7 YPA for the season.
Games 9-13: He ranked 3rd in passing TD's, 4th in yards and 7th INT's and had a 7.63 YPA. These were not bad teams. He played Pitts, Balt & NE in the 2nd half so we're not talking about bad D's. These guys were the best the NFL has to offer. That's very impressive if you ask me.Yes. You missed the point of what I said. I never argued that Palmer didn't finish strong in 2004. My argument is that his strong finish doesn't necessarily reflect permanent growth as a player.Overall the improvement was outstanding. Can you say with a straight face that this isn't impressive? Be honest.
Like I said, I think people are falling victim to the Koren Robinson fallacy. When a young, highly-drafted player finishes a season with a few good games, people seem to automatically assume that he's turned the corner. As guys like William Green and Koren Robinson have shown, that's not always the case. Sometimes a string of good games is just a string of good games. Even bad players have good stretches.
To be clear, I'm not necessarily saying that Palmer is bad. I'm saying that his play thus far doesn't warrant a top 5 dynasty QB ranking. He's only had 2-3 good games and if it weren't for his status as a former #1 pick then I think expectations would be far more realistic.
Not sure KRob & Green are great comparisons -- both those guys have/had huge off the field issues that undoubtedly effected their play. Far as I know Palmer doesn't have any substance abuse problems etc.Like I said, I think people are falling victim to the Koren Robinson fallacy. When a young, highly-drafted player finishes a season with a few good games, people seem to automatically assume that he's turned the corner. As guys like William Green and Koren Robinson have shown, that's not always the case. Sometimes a string of good games is just a string of good games. Even bad players have good stretches.