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Things that make you go Hmm? (1 Viewer)

Sunshizzlety

Footballguy
A couple questions on my mind lately are comparisons of several players who we are very high on in this years rankings but relate (more or less) to similar players in recent years who plummeted!

#1.  Similarity between the excitement we had over Randall Cobb last year after Jordy was injured and his immediate upgrade to the Packs WR#1, AND this years excitement (ish) over Golden Tate after Calvin Johnson retiring.  I see Cobb and Tate with extremely similar situations and skill sets, not to mention, the fact that they look like they came from the same gene pool.  Obviously Cobb was a huge disappointment last year from where we initially drafted him and even ended up on waiver wires around the fantasy community after letting his owners down week after week.  Granted it obviously wasn't all on him, Rodgers and the O-line struggled at times and the lingering shoulder injury didn't help, but in hindsight, it was all a disaster.  So in looking at and analyzing Tate and his situation, Why do we think Tate will fare better now that he's been pushed up the receiver chart in Detroit.  I'm sure the obvious answer will be how great Tate looked in previous years when Megatron was sidelined or even used as a decoy, but now that he's the official #1 do things change and will he struggle how Cobb did in 2015 or is there a reason/s we're optimistic he'll produce?

#2.  Our hysteria for RG3 after his 2012 rookie season where he threw for 3200 yards and 20 TD's and ran for 815 with 7 more TD's......AND...... Tyrod Taylor after his efficient rookie campaign.

#3.  This one will (seem) easy but the comparison between our excitement for C.J. Anderson going into 2015 (after leading all RB's in the NFL the last 5 weeks of 2014).....AND.....David Johnson after doing almost the exact same thing for the Cards last year after Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington went down in week 12.  I actually took C.J. Anderson with the 3rd overall pick in my draft last year.  At the time I could write out a 20 page essay on why I thought C.J. was worth a number 3 pick overall and the deciding factor was when Denver picked up Evan Mathis a week or two prior to the season. In hindsight, it's easy to say C.J. was a horrible pick at that spot but there were so many things working in his favor at the time. (It's also easy) to come up with many reasons why David Johnson (going into 2016) is a good pick at a top 3 RB spot but personally I'm a little nervous after the mistrust of late-season surges from RB's who we haven't seen produce for a full season.  So, what are the differences? and why will David Johnson not be this years C.J. Anderson? (Obvious answer, Cards offense is much better than Denver's last year, not allowed. I guess of course, this is the only and most important reason, then we can go ahead and put this one to bed.)

 
#1. Tate has a history, he was actually pretty good as the number 1 in Seattle. He was putting up 800 to 900 yards a year for a team that was attempting the least passes in the league at the time, then you seen what he could do with Calvin out. Cobb's struggles were over blown, yes he stunk, but it wasn't all his fault. As you stated the O-Line was horrible and Rodgers was off. Cobb was also injured all year with a bad shoulder.

#2. You are comparing 2 different players in 2 different systems Taylor isn't a rookie, he is 27 years old without the injury history/ and attitude history that RG3 had coming into the league.

#3. Again you are comparing 2 different things. Johnson was considered a better prospect coming out of college than Anderson was, barring injury the Cards offense will be better than the Broncos last year.

Each one of these things you are comparing are different players in different systems.

 
Lookup the career stats of Golden Tate in games without Calvin Johnson:

2013

6/61/1

8/129/1

2014

7/44/0

10/154/1

11/109/0

42/493/3

There's no speculation, he's produced without Megatron and it's because he gets more targets. Minimum 6 catches in games without him.

 
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2.) RG3 and Taylor are both losers, plenty of real Quarterbacks out there, imo.

If I'm starting Cleveland or Buffalo's starting QB, something has gone wrong.

 
3.) David Johnson is classic overvalue. Bruce Arians is probably going to use Chris Johnson more than people would like.

Keeping the young buck healthy for the playoffs. I loved him last year in the 12th / 13th. In the first, nah. I'll find some more gems elsewhere.

 
3.) David Johnson is classic overvalue. Bruce Arians is probably going to use Chris Johnson more than people would like.

Keeping the young buck healthy for the playoffs. I loved him last year in the 12th / 13th. In the first, nah. I'll find some more gems elsewhere.
We may disagree 99.9% of the time politically, but you've got this one right Em. Love David Johnson, but the hype has grown too far too fast.

 
2.) RG3 and Taylor are both losers, plenty of real Quarterbacks out there, imo.

If I'm starting Cleveland or Buffalo's starting QB, something has gone wrong.
Or you play in a 32 team league or your starter is on a bye week.  

 
This is more IDP based, but I was just looking at the rankings of D-linemen last night, and the site I use, FleaFlicker, has Khalil Mack over JJ Watt as the #1 DL. Which seems insane to me.

 
Lookup the career stats of Golden Tate in games without Calvin Johnson:

2013

6/61/1

8/129/1

2014

7/44/0

10/154/1

11/109/0

42/493/3

There's no speculation, he's produced without Megatron and it's because he gets more targets. Minimum 6 catches in games without him.
Exactly.  Don't forget that Tate will have more talent around him this year compared to back then when Megatron was out.  I think Jones and Boldin only help Tate.

 
#2.  Our hysteria for RG3 after his 2012 rookie season where he threw for 3200 yards and 20 TD's and ran for 815 with 7 more TD's......AND...... Tyrod Taylor after his efficient rookie campaign.

#3.  This one will (seem) easy but the comparison between our excitement for C.J. Anderson going into 2015 (after leading all RB's in the NFL the last 5 weeks of 2014).....AND.....David Johnson after doing almost the exact same thing for the Cards last year after Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington went down in week 12.  I actually took C.J. Anderson with the 3rd overall pick in my draft last year.  At the time I could write out a 20 page essay on why I thought C.J. was worth a number 3 pick overall and the deciding factor was when Denver picked up Evan Mathis a week or two prior to the season. In hindsight, it's easy to say C.J. was a horrible pick at that spot but there were so many things working in his favor at the time. (It's also easy) to come up with many reasons why David Johnson (going into 2016) is a good pick at a top 3 RB spot but personally I'm a little nervous after the mistrust of late-season surges from RB's who we haven't seen produce for a full season.  So, what are the differences? and why will David Johnson not be this years C.J. Anderson? (Obvious answer, Cards offense is much better than Denver's last year, not allowed. I guess of course, this is the only and most important reason, then we can go ahead and put this one to bed.)
#2. I get the comparison, but from what I can tell the Bills are running a traditional NFL offense where the Skins were running a very simplified college offense built on the read option. Not that this is super re-assuring because he always got hurt, but Tyrod is much more Vick than RG3. 

#3 I am very down on DJ compared to most. I have a 2nd round grade on him. I see the DJ-CJ comp. The thing that concerns me the most is that Philly game. The Eagles were such garbage at that point in the year, just getting thrashed week after week, letting players put up the best game of their season regularly. 

W11: Winston threw 5 TDs, Doug Martin ran for 235 yards

W12: Stafford threw 5 TDs, Mega caught 3 TDs, Lions RBs accumulated 225 total yards

W13: Good game for the Eagles as they beat the Pats in a shoot out. Pats RBs put up 197 yards though. 

W14: Eagles got another win, Bills RBs held to 139 yards

W15: DJ goes nuts with 229 total yards. 

W16: Cousins throws 4 TDs in the first half. 

W17: Giants RBs shred the Eagles for 286 total yards. 

So DJ did what a RB getting 33 touches against the Eagles should have done. If you combine Jennings rushes and Vareen's receptions, you get 33 touches for 243 yards. Doug Martin took 27 touches to get his 235 yards. What concerns me is that this game represents 25% of DJ's fantasy points for the season, over 40% of his fantasy points for the stretch where he was the starter. I am not one to say "throw out the big game and player A only...". However, I am one to say that a 40 point game is an outlier for any player. A 5 game sample size is too small. Combine an outlier that huge into a small sample size and it makes the situation very difficult to assess. 

Also your final point about how obviously the Cards offense will be much better than the Broncos offense. We are saying that now in hindsight. One year ago this time Demaryius and CJ were 1st round picks, Sanders a 3rd round pick and Manning a 4th round pick. People were expecting huge things from Denver's offense. It all got derailed by a QB becoming too old. The Cards offense was amazing last year, but if there is a weak spot it is that their QB is old and has suffered several major injuries. Just remember hindsight is 20/20. 

 
ShamrockPride said:
This is more IDP based, but I was just looking at the rankings of D-linemen last night, and the site I use, FleaFlicker, has Khalil Mack over JJ Watt as the #1 DL. Which seems insane to me.
I don't think it's insane, but certainly contrarian. 

 
ShamrockPride said:
This is more IDP based, but I was just looking at the rankings of D-linemen last night, and the site I use, FleaFlicker, has Khalil Mack over JJ Watt as the #1 DL. Which seems insane to me.
I don't follow IDP, but I assume a lot of that has to with Watt being injured and in danger of missing time. 

 

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