Things You Know You Don't Know - Rookie Edition (1 Viewer)

[King of the Jungle]

The NFL is really, really physical. I think that's the worry with some of these guys. The surefire non-busts perform everywhere, including for the watch. So far, in a hyped draft of WRs, the two best underwhelmed. Jeudy was supposed to compete for fastest and ran a 4.5. CeeDee, at his weight, ran a 4.9. That's why Ruggs marches steadily up the professional boards and really piques the professional interest. Now, that's not saying the rest of the guys didn't blaze. Mims and Jefferson did, and they're moving up boards fast. But the top two WRs? Meh. Fat meh. 

The guys that didn't underwhelm were the two top RBs. That makes it tough: All the pro evaluators are saying the WRs are the thing in this draft, but objective measurements are telling you to look at guys like Taylor and Swift, who lack the hype or positional importance to the pro guys, but who might be better players at their positions right away than most guys there. I mean, are you telling me Swift isn't already better than Damien Williams, Taylor isn't already better than Jordan Howard? 

I mean, can we say for sure Jerry Jeudy is better than his body type counterpart Robby Anderson? 

No way. I think that's part of the dissonance here.

I think through my amateur scouting eyes that Jeudy has MUCH better feet and route running skills than Robby does even now. I am not confident about much in this draft but I am sure that Jeudy has special footwork. Whether that is enough to lead to stardom I am not sure. I think I would feel better if he were 10 lbs heavier or ran a faster forty. But I have been tantalized by the forty before and made wrong choices because of it. The NFL is still about getting open, and I think Jeudy will be very good at that. He will need a team that puts him in position to utilize his strengths more so than Lamb IMO, but he has a chance to be very good at the next level. As far as holding up I think through watching him play he does tend to protect himself (gravitates toward the boundary, goes down prior to big contact) so I think that bodes well.   

 

[Ilov80s]

I think through my amateur scouting eyes that Jeudy has MUCH better feet and route running skills than Robby does even now. I am not confident about much in this draft but I am sure that Jeudy has special footwork. Whether that is enough to lead to stardom I am not sure. I think I would feel better if he were 10 lbs heavier or ran a faster forty. But I have been tantalized by the forty before and made wrong choices because of it. The NFL is still about getting open, and I think Jeudy will be very good at that. He will need a team that puts him in position to utilize his strengths more so than Lamb IMO, but he has a chance to be very good at the next level. As far as holding up I think through watching him play he does tend to protect himself (gravitates toward the boundary, goes down prior to big contact) so I think that bodes well.   

Jeudy and Anderson have similar bodies but play very differently. Jeudy is more in the Ridley-Diggs range imo.

 

[Boston]

Let's say that what you're seeing is accurate. Is that really a big problem? 

One thing I think we fans underestimate is just how different the college game is from the pros. In college you have an elite guy like Lamb often facing off against an ordinary Joe that's soon going to be a substitute phy ed teacher. And since college coaches aren't pro coaches either, they don't need to (often simply can't) teach the finer points of football to win games. They just scheme the match ups.

(As an aside, I think you really see this today in the offensive line positions.)

What I'm getting at is that every guy is going to have parts of their game they need improvement. But the question is "what part"? Specific to Lamb, is there any reason to think that he can't learn how to make himself open? You can't teach the physical skills that he or Jeudy have but you can teach the nuances of the position. And this isn't just the "you can't teach speed" argument because I think a lot of super fast guys lack change of direction skills so it's more than just that one skill.

When a guy that shouldn't bust actually does bust, I think it causes us to go deeper into analysis paralysis the next time. We think we should have been able to proactively see why the guy didn't make it. But it's not true.

The short list of guys that absolutely should not bust in this fantasy draft are, IMO, Taylor, Jeudy, Lamb, and Burrow. If you want to throw Swift in there, I won't argue. So while none are "perfect" prospects like Saquon Barkley or Calvin Johnson, there's no way to tell ahead of time what small flaws there are in their games could be fatal ones. And while there's not enough evidence to definitively decide among these names, you can definitively decide between them and all the others. You may get it wrong choosing between Lamb and Jeudy but at least it was a comparison you could and should have made. There's really no need to decide between Lamb/Henry and Mims/Reagor however.

So, again IMO, with these top names, if you have the chance to choose between them, just go with the guy you like best and be done with it.

Great post...at the end of the day you need to do your research and make a decision for yourself...as long as you do your due diligence you just have to accept you are gonna hit on some and miss on some... as for Lamb v. Jeudy it is a real tough one as they are both high-end prospects...the draft will have a big say but right now I am leaning towards Jeudy due to conference bias...big 12 WRs make me a little nervous...when you look at the top 30 receiving yardage leaders last year 7 were from SEC schools and 2 were from Big 12 schools (in fairness Hill is not in the top 30 so you can put an asterisk next to his name because he is so good)...when guys are this close I tend to look for a tie-breaker that I can live with and right now that is it for me.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Jeudy and Anderson have similar bodies but play very differently. Jeudy is more in the Ridley-Diggs range imo.

I think those are great comparisons. I also think last year I was looking at these top guys (Jeudy/Lamb) as world beater perfect prospects who had the size/speed combination of the prototypes we all like. When the combine came and they "shrunk" in size and ran "slower" I was left a little disappointed. Now that I have had some time to look at them again they still do each offer some great qualities that have me excited about them in the NFL.  

 

[Ilov80s]

I think those are great comparisons. I also think last year I was looking at these top guys (Jeudy/Lamb) as world beater perfect prospects who had the size/speed combination of the prototypes we all like. When the combine came and they "shrunk" in size and ran "slower" I was left a little disappointed. Now that I have had some time to look at them again they still do each offer some great qualities that have me excited about them in the NFL.  

I agree they were both a bit overrated last year which seems to happen every year where we fall a little too in love with next years guys. Neither is a 5 star prospect. 

 

[King of the Jungle]

Let's say that what you're seeing is accurate. Is that really a big problem? 

One thing I think we fans underestimate is just how different the college game is from the pros. In college you have an elite guy like Lamb often facing off against an ordinary Joe that's soon going to be a substitute phy ed teacher. And since college coaches aren't pro coaches either, they don't need to (often simply can't) teach the finer points of football to win games. They just scheme the match ups.

(As an aside, I think you really see this today in the offensive line positions.)

What I'm getting at is that every guy is going to have parts of their game they need improvement. But the question is "what part"? Specific to Lamb, is there any reason to think that he can't learn how to make himself open? You can't teach the physical skills that he or Jeudy have but you can teach the nuances of the position. And this isn't just the "you can't teach speed" argument because I think a lot of super fast guys lack change of direction skills so it's more than just that one skill.

When a guy that shouldn't bust actually does bust, I think it causes us to go deeper into analysis paralysis the next time. We think we should have been able to proactively see why the guy didn't make it. But it's not true.

The short list of guys that absolutely should not bust in this fantasy draft are, IMO, Taylor, Jeudy, Lamb, and Burrow. If you want to throw Swift in there, I won't argue. So while none are "perfect" prospects like Saquon Barkley or Calvin Johnson, there's no way to tell ahead of time what small flaws there are in their games could be fatal ones. And while there's not enough evidence to definitively decide among these names, you can definitively decide between them and all the others. You may get it wrong choosing between Lamb and Jeudy but at least it was a comparison you could and should have made. There's really no need to decide between Lamb/Henry and Mims/Reagor however.

So, again IMO, with these top names, if you have the chance to choose between them, just go with the guy you like best and be done with it.

There are some really good points in there. I look at everyone mocking on DK Metcalf's route running last offseason as he looked like a bus trying to parallel park running a curl route. If a team plays to the strength of what a player does well than you have a chance to see success on the field. And if the player improves on his weak points they can become even better. Jeudy and Lamb each have elite qualities but also have things they can improve on. The hope is a team uses what they are good at first to see some early results and then refines their weaknesses to expand what they can do. DK succeeded besides the early limitations and I think he improved as the year went on. I would expect the same from these guys. 

 

[ffmail4me]

4.50 isn’t bad for Lamb. It’s average for his size but certainly isn’t anything to worry about imo. For WRs, data shows production trumps testing athleticism. 

Jerry Rice never touched a 4.5 did he? Surely didn't bother him

 

[massraider]

I think those are great comparisons. I also think last year I was looking at these top guys (Jeudy/Lamb) as world beater perfect prospects who had the size/speed combination of the prototypes we all like. When the combine came and they "shrunk" in size and ran "slower" I was left a little disappointed. Now that I have had some time to look at them again they still do each offer some great qualities that have me excited about them in the NFL.  

And it comes down to: Can they win with those qualities? Ruggs doesn't have to do what Jeudy does to win, and vice versa. 

Any ding on Jeudy for speed, or size, I don't get it. He's well above comfortable thresholds for both, and is a route technician and has otherworldly stop/start. 

We're not dinging Michael Thomas for inability to get deep, are we? 

 

[King of the Jungle]

And it comes down to: Can they win with those qualities? Ruggs doesn't have to do what Jeudy does to win, and vice versa. 

Any ding on Jeudy for speed, or size, I don't get it. He's well above comfortable thresholds for both, and is a route technician and has otherworldly stop/start. 

We're not dinging Michael Thomas for inability to get deep, are we? 

Can they win with those qualities and will their organization put them in position to do so. Seattle did a near perfect job with DK last year as an example. 

Not necessarily dinging for size, just was naive having this preconceived notion last year that they were the total perfect package (size/speed/ball skills). When they didn't match up to that fairytale I was a little disappointed. After looking at them a little closer I can see what they do well and am excited to see where they land. 

Not dinging Thomas but he landed in a beautiful spot and he had the attitude that he was going to be the best from the get go. The other obvious variable is we don't know how these kids are going to transition to being professionals. That is a huge factor as well and is impossible to gauge. Jeudy made a comment that he doesn't love football, he is addicted to it. I like that but we will see if he carries that with him. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Jerry Rice never touched a 4.5 did he? Surely didn't bother him

The Jerry Rice 40 stuff is a myth. Scouts had him timed between 4.45-4.58. But yes Nuk and Michael Thomas and plenty others have been on the average to slow side and still dominated.

 

[massraider]

Not dinging Thomas but he landed in a beautiful spot and he had the attitude that he was going to be the best from the get go. The other obvious variable is we don't know how these kids are going to transition to being professionals. That is a huge factor as well and is impossible to gauge. Jeudy made a comment that he doesn't love football, he is addicted to it. I like that but we will see if he carries that with him. 

I agree 100% in terms of transition. The guys that are workers overcome the superior physical traits of their counterparts. 

When I look at my top fantasy WR ranks from 2019, I see a lot of route runners, and not a ton of physical freaks. 

 

[Futeki]

He’s like a really fast Joe Flacco. I don’t think that’s a bad thing. Similar size, arm, release, but Herbert can move around, and is surprisingly quick. I don’t think he runs as well as Allen, but he can if he needs to. Good at throwing on the run as well. I won’t be surprised if he’s the 2nd qb off the board. 

I won't be surprised if he is the 2nd QB off the board either.

Regarding throwing on the run, from what I've seen, he is more accurate! When throwing from the pocket, he consistently threw just behind the receiver, but still catchable. His scrambling in the same direction as the receiver is running appears to make the difference.

 

[Zyphros]

What am I missing with Michael Pittman Jr.?  Why is he considered a 1st round pick by some?  I don't see it at all.  He's a depth add for NFL teams to me.  He's athletic Kelvin Harmon, very similar in play style but Kelvin is a better player and he went in the 6th round.  This is where athletic testing fools people for sure.  You don't need to be an uber athlete at WR to be good.  

 

[Ilov80s]

What am I missing with Michael Pittman Jr.?  Why is he considered a 1st round pick by some?  I don't see it at all.  He's a depth add for NFL teams to me.  He's athletic Kelvin Harmon, very similar in play style but Kelvin is a better player and he went in the 6th round.  This is where athletic testing fools people for sure.  You don't need to be an uber athlete at WR to be good.  

I have to think pedigree goes a long way with a lot of the GMs. Also he’s supposed to be a really impressive guy. I don’t see round 1 but probably round 2.

 

[travdogg]

I don't know where these guys will go obviously, but if I were running a team, I can't see using a 1st round pick on Jordan Love, when you can have Cam Newton, or Jameis Winston, or even Andy Dalton, and still keep your 1st rounder. What is Love's appeal?  Feels a bit like Paxton Lynch a couple years ago, where its clear he's a very flawed QB, but blind hope is better than proven averageness(not that Cam is average)

Frankly, I'd probably rather have Cam than Herbert too, especially if it means I can have Cam and a top-10 guy at another position. 

Burrow and Tua look like studs. I can get behind guys like Fromm and Hurts on day 2. But I really struggle with the idea of using a 1st rounder on a QB, just because one is there, especially(in Love's case more than Herbert) they need everything to fall into place, to even be Tannehill levels of good.

Hot take maybe: I really don't think Jordan Love is a top-5 QB in this class. He has a big arm and decent mobility, but those are arguably the least important assets for a QB to have. He's an awful decision maker, and has almost zero accuracy. There were so many plays on tape that you'd be embarrassed to see a practice squad QB make. 

 

[rockaction]

Hot take maybe: I really don't think Jordan Love is a top-5 QB in this class. He has a big arm and decent mobility, but those are arguably the least important assets for a QB to have. He's an awful decision maker, and has almost zero accuracy. There were so many plays on tape that you'd be embarrassed to see a practice squad QB make. 

I don't think it's possible to have a hot take on a guy so agreed-upon as flawed as Love. I can't admit to really having sat down and looked at him besides PFF numbers. But that's because most guys where all the flags are there wind up out of the league in about three years after two really bad Week 14 and 15 starts somewhere along the line behind a bad line on a bad team. Because that's how teams get bad: wasting first-round capital on those kinds of guys.