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Thinking outloud (Goff/Thielen) (1 Viewer)

Gawain

Footballguy
Just trying to type out my options and if anyone has any thoughts or sees flaws in my reasoning, I'd love to hear them. (Option to keep a sixth if a 2nd/3rd year player as well...keeping Kupp as a 17th)

5 Keeper, 12 team non-PPR league. Lose the round player was drafted in (round in parenthesis). Start 2QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1 FLEX. Have the 9th pick each round. Extra 3rd round pick (3.05)

Contenders are Goff (5), Garapollo (13), Fournette (1), McCaffrey (2), D. Henry (6), Allen (20), Thielen (12)

After projecting keepers, best available are: QB (Mariota, Smith, Winston, Keenum, Manning, Bortles, Taylor/Mayfield, Flacco/Jackson, Bradford/Rosen, Darnold/McCown); RB (Barkley, Mixon, McKinnon, Collins, Hyde, Drake, Ingram, Penny, Michel, RoJo, Miller, Crowell, R. Freeman, Lynch); WR (Adams, Cooper, JuJu, Fitzgerald, A-Rob, Hogan, D. Thomas, Tate, Woods, Goodwin, Watkins, R. Anderson and Fuller).

6 Guys kept first round, 3 guys kept second round, 3 guys kept third round, 6 guys kept fourth round, 4 guys kept fifth round (assumes Fournette/Goff kept, McCaffrey not kept), I project roughly 20 QB, 21 RB and 28 WR are kept.

Garapollo and Allen are (to me) no-brainers. Any thought process is then around the three other fellas to keep with them.

I think the best players available at my pick in the first are QB: Mariota/Smith, RB: Collins/Drake and WR: JuJu/Cooper. For my 2nd, QB Mariota or Smith, RB: Rookie #3/4, WR: Fitzgerald/Robinson. For my 3rds, QB: Winston/Rookie QB #2, RB: Lynch/Rookie RB #5, WR: Watkins/Anderson. For my 4th: QBs Bortles/Rookie QB #3, RBs: Crowell/Chubb, WRs: Cobb/Benjamin

I'm figuring that replacements for each guy would be Fournette=Collins(1), McCaffrey=L. Miller(2), Goff=Winston(3), Henry=Lynch(3), Thielen=Watkins(3)
I initially tried to rank players, but realized that projecting average ranking of players available would be better, as projections for each player differ wildly.

My First round pick can take QB-18, RB-17, WR-13
My Second round pick can take QB-19, RB-25, WR-20
My earlier Third round pick can take QB-22, RB-32, WR-25
My later Third round pick can take QB-24, RB-36, WR-30

So, with 10 possibilities, I'll have filled out my starters by end of third round with the exception of situations where Fournette and McCaffrey are kept together. I used WR-30-10 for those situations. I ended up with the following projections:
 

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Long story short, the two best options looking at projected points are Garapollo, Fournette, Henry, Allen, Kupp and either Goff/Thielen. Total point difference is less than 1 (1680.6375 to 1680.2875 in favor of Thielen)

With the two running neck and neck and Goff a 5th and Thielen a 12th, I think I'm best off keeping the third WR and taking QB. I am just averse to only keeping 1 QB in a start 2 league.

TL;DR: Goff or Thielen?

 
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beerbuff

Footballguy
I'd keep Goff, Jimmy G, Allen, Fournette and Henry. 

With the 2 qb starter requirement Goff is way more valuable than Thielen.

 

jwsbowler

Footballguy
For me, I would keep Goff, Garoppolo, Allen, Fournette and Thielen and as you mention, Kupp .  I have more value in Thielen than Henry and if I was doing a straigh up trade, I would take Thielen.  Also, Henry has Dion Lewis to contend with.  

 
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Gally

Footballguy
jwsbowler said:
For me, I would keep Goff, Garoppolo, Allen, Fournette and Thielen and as you mention, Kupp .  I have more value in Thielen than Henry and if I was doing a straigh up trade, I would take Thielen.  Also, Henry has Dion Lewis to contend with.  
I agree with this.

 

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