This will be blasphemy for some (1 Viewer)

[matuski]

I DEMAND THESE PEOPLE USE BETTER CRYSTAL BALLS

 

[kurtrudder]

Guys like Greg Cosell does not put in the work of PFF or Waldman

this could literally be the worst comment ever posted on the Shark Pool.  This guys life is all about watching film and breaking it down.  His hits far outrank his misses.  I think many pundits and draftniks actually ride of Cosell's coat tails. 

 

[TheWinz]

Just for fun, here are a few of Waldman's current rankings:

QB5 - Dak Prescott - no other staffer has him in the top 10, and the consensus is QB16

RB10 - Kenyan Drake - next highest staffer has him RB19, and consensus is RB22

WR17 - James Washington - next highest staffer has him WR34, and consensus is WR42

TE19 - Hunter Henry - every other staffer has him top 10, and consensus is TE7

Love him or hate him, his rankings are not vanilla, like so many others.  When I notice a big disparity, I investigate on my own.  This site is the only thing I pay for, and it's 80% for the subscriber contest, 15% for the Shark Pool, and 5% for the FBG staff's opinions.  FF is a hobby for me; if I win a buck or two that's great, but I'd do it for free.  Let's not get bent out of shape that a staffer has James Washington ranked ahead of Antonio Brown at the moment, no matter how crazy he is.  

 

[kittenmittens]

Scouting is a game of uncertain outcomes.  Nobody is ever 100 percent - not even close. It's the type of thing where having a 55 percent hit rate is great, and having a 40 percent hit rate is passable.  You're not going to win or be right every time, but scouting well means you come out ahead in the long run.  Drafting well means hitting on maybe ~1.5 more contributing players than average teams per draft.  

The other underappreciated thing about drafting and scouting is the fit component.  It's not just about spotting top talent, it's about identifying the right traits and skills in a player that fit the scheme and match the role that the player will play in that scheme.  Coachability, player work ethic, and attitude are also huge factors. 

 

[Mongidig]

He nailed it with the Mahomes optimism. I wish I listened to him.

 

[dkp993]

He nailed it with the Mahomes optimism. I wish I listened to him.

Yeah he was WAY out in front of the curve on Mahomes.

 

[Mongidig]

Yeah he was WAY out in front of the curve on Mahomes.

I had him in my que next to pick round 10. At the last second I saw that Isaiah Crowell was available and thought that was too good of value to pass up. Less than a second later Mahomes was picked...no hesitation, just confirming my f up. I still feel sick!

 

[Kevrunner]

He nailed it with the Mahomes optimism. I wish I listened to him.

Everybody is right once in a while, they will hit on one player but miss on 5 others, just a bunch of luck when it comes down to it.  

 

[voiceofunreason]

Just for fun, here are a few of Waldman's current rankings:

QB5 - Dak Prescott - no other staffer has him in the top 10, and the consensus is QB16

RB10 - Kenyan Drake - next highest staffer has him RB19, and consensus is RB22

WR17 - James Washington - next highest staffer has him WR34, and consensus is WR42

TE19 - Hunter Henry - every other staffer has him top 10, and consensus is TE7

Love him or hate him, his rankings are not vanilla, like so many others.  When I notice a big disparity, I investigate on my own.  This site is the only thing I pay for, and it's 80% for the subscriber contest, 15% for the Shark Pool, and 5% for the FBG staff's opinions.  FF is a hobby for me; if I win a buck or two that's great, but I'd do it for free.  Let's not get bent out of shape that a staffer has James Washington ranked ahead of Antonio Brown at the moment, no matter how crazy he is.  

Drake, I can understand to an extent but the others are crazy. He’s very knowledgeable and a good read, yet he has Boykin and Butler as the top 2 wrs. It seems like he likes to be contrarian and falls in love with players he knows others don’t like. 

 

[Mongidig]

Everybody is right once in a while, they will hit on one player but miss on 5 others, just a bunch of luck when it comes down to it.  

True!

There were several football guys I highly respect who said they wouldn't consider taking Barkley until the mid second round last year.  I thought that was insane. I'm pretty sure they all worked for the same site so group think must of crept in. 

It's gambling on players. Sometimes you run well. Sometimes you don't.

I'm gonna try really hard to gather information and then ignore the predictions and just take the players I like.

 

[Mongidig]

Drake, I can understand to an extent but the others are crazy. He’s very knowledgeable and a good read, yet he has Boykin and Butler as the top 2 wrs. It seems like he likes to be contrarian and falls in love with players he knows others don’t like. 

Dak is one of my favorite late round QB's. I think top ten or better is doable. 

I like James Washington but 17 does seem high. The Steelers throw the ball a ton. If he develops he could be a thing.

I still remember all the gooseggs I took with Henry a couple years back so I don't know what to think about him.

I'm fading Drake because I fade RBs stuck on horrible teams. He could be good though.

 

[Slider]

Just for fun, here are a few of Waldman's current rankings:

QB5 - Dak Prescott - no other staffer has him in the top 10, and the consensus is QB16

RB10 - Kenyan Drake - next highest staffer has him RB19, and consensus is RB22

WR17 - James Washington - next highest staffer has him WR34, and consensus is WR42

TE19 - Hunter Henry - every other staffer has him top 10, and consensus is TE7

Love him or hate him, his rankings are not vanilla, like so many others.  When I notice a big disparity, I investigate on my own.  This site is the only thing I pay for, and it's 80% for the subscriber contest, 15% for the Shark Pool, and 5% for the FBG staff's opinions.  FF is a hobby for me; if I win a buck or two that's great, but I'd do it for free.  Let's not get bent out of shape that a staffer has James Washington ranked ahead of Antonio Brown at the moment, no matter how crazy he is.  

Just for fun let's look at this 7 months from now. 

 

[TheWinz]

Just for fun let's look at this 7 months from now. 

Of course!  I love going back to see stuff like this.  If he hits on one, I wouldn't be shocked.  If two - impressed.  If three - amazed.  If four - I will use only his rankings during my 2020 redraft league.  Matt may adjust his rankings quite a bit over the next month, making this post moot though.

 

[bmsarvis]

Waldman work in the rsp is well worth the money. The amount of prospects he gives insight on is amazing. Theres no way I could devote the time to do what he does. It is a tool though. I like to read through and confirm what I've seen on tape from guys but also it tends to point out things and prospects i didnt have on my radar. I was all in on Kamara his rookie year and "over drafted " him in every league and i used his rsp as one of my tools in that decision. The rsp is an awesome read every year. As with anything you have to use your own judgment on how to perceive the data.

 

[Men-in-Cleats]

Drake, I can understand to an extent but the others are crazy. He’s very knowledgeable and a good read, yet he has Boykin and Butler as the top 2 wrs. It seems like he likes to be contrarian and falls in love with players he knows others don’t like. 

I respect more that he's willing to stick his neck out there on the line publishing unpopular opinions than if he was just regurgitating what everybody else is going with.  I keep hearing on there that "he falls in love with players..." and my response to that is "Who doesn't?"  People act like he's picking based on frivolous things while everyone else is using cold hard facts.  There will be tons of players that put up video game numbers in college that will do jack squat and people who might even have been backups or committee members who will dominate in the pros, there are no cold hard facts in this, only educated opinions.  Everybody has this revisionist history thing where they were the only ones who thought Treadwell was trash while Michael Thomas was the real deal but if you went through rankings threads from here you'd find that there was this universal top three of Doctson, Treadwell, and Coleman that people debated the order of while pretty much everybody had Thomas near the top of this decent sized second tier with Shepard and others.   

 

[Bracie Smathers]

this could literally be the worst comment ever posted on the Shark Pool.  This guys life is all about watching film and breaking it down.  His hits far outrank his misses.  I think many pundits and draftniks actually ride of Cosell's coat tails. 

Waldman puts out a draft sheet where he does tape study on every NFL prospect.

Cosell does not.

Yours is the worst comment ever posted ever.  Truly the absolute dumbest comment ever.  Cosell's life is tape?  Bwaaa haa haa.  No it isn't.  

 

[Interseptopus]

Waldman in a nutshell

Dallas QB ranked #5

Dallas wrs 9, 52, 63 and TE 18

One thing does not equal the other.

yeah this is what drives me nuts for any "expert." It's just lazy projections/rankings. 

ETA: unless he thinks Dak is going to get a ton of rushing TDs 

 

[tangfoot]

Waldman in a nutshell

Dallas QB ranked #5

Dallas wrs 9, 52, 63 and TE 18

One thing does not equal the other.

Please let us know the rankings of the teammates of QB4 and QB6 in order to give proper context.

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

Nice clickbait title. 

 

[tangfoot]

The only context needed is 5 versus 9 65, 63, 18

The others if the same would just represent a repeat of the mistake, but just for the fun

#4 versus 2, 29, 69, 24

#6 versus 16, 24, 35, 30

Thanks for this.  Without spending any time analyzing the specifics, it appears that his QB ratings are completely out of whack with those of the other skill positions, instead of being built off of them.  Unfortunate and sloppy, really.

 

[FF Ninja]

Love him or hate him, his rankings are not vanilla, like so many others.

This is what I love about him. Just about everyone else seems to be mailing it in or playing it safe, only varying their rankings a few from the consensus. At least he's not afraid to deviate.

 

[Ilov80s]

 Last years QB 5 had thier WRs/TEs finish 2, 64, 111, 27 so I don't think he is necesarily off base at all with that alignment. 

 

[dkp993]

Last years QB 5 had thier WRs/TEs finish 2, 64, 111, 27 so I don't he is necesarily off base at all with that alignment. 

Exactly.  The lazy analysis here was not done by Waldman imo.

And as a side note for anyone who has paid 1 sec of time paying attention to Waldman's analysis too not think he hasn't tied a QB's performance/projections back to his skill position is ludicrous.

 

[TheWinz]

Exactly.  The lazy analysis here was not done by Waldman imo.

And as a side note for anyone who has paid 1 sec of time paying attention to Waldman's analysis too not think he hasn't tied a QB's performance/projections back to his skill position is ludicrous.

I agree.  Anyone doing projections is likely using some form of excel spreadsheet, which tallies the numbers.  Perhaps he has more than 3 WR's getting catches, and maybe he has Zeke with a bunch.  And Dak is a runner too.  I will give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

[Ilov80s]

I assume you are describing Watson.  First of all #2 versus #9 is significant.  275 yds last year.  #64 was #22 (wks 1-8) until he was hurt, missing weeks 9-17.  To offset that loss (for ff stats) Watson rushed for 321 yds from weeks 9 - 17.  That is more than Prescott's entire season total.  

9, 67, 112 and 23 was enough for QB8. 

 

[Ilov80s]

You mean Cam?  The QB who ran for 181 more yds even with missing 2 games and had an rb catch 107 passes for over 850 yds.  Got it

I was referring to Drew Brees. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Got it.  So you meant the #6 wr not #9 and the Qb who completed over 100 passes for over 870 yds to Kamara and Ingram.  Not to mention a QB known for spreading the ball around, completing tds to 13 different players (8 for Prescott) I even doubt Brees can repeat those stats without a better #2 wr and or TE.

I was mistaken, Thomas was WR 8 in my league. But yes that is who I am referring to. The point is that things happen like QBs running, QBs spreading the ball around, RBs catching lots of passes, players getting injured can create a situation where a QB can drastically outperform their receivers and tight ends. There is no reason to be so smug about it. Also is he basing this on projections or ranks of where he would draft them? If it is the latter, than it doesn't matter. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Smug?  I see no reason to try to rationalize and defend a clearly poor ranking.  I am pointing out how bad it is and I get several people trying to cherry pick comps and trying to rationalize a ranking that shouldn’t be defended but here we are and that makes me smug.  Carry on shark pool, this is why I rarely engage

I don’t think it’s necessarily a poor ranking (would be a bit of a stretch if based off of projections) Take GB for example. Most will have Rodgers in the top 4. Of course Adams is a  top 5 WR for everyone but after that I can understand Geronimo, MVS, ESB, Kumerow and Jimmy Graham all ranked really low as one might expect Rodgers to spread the ball a lot or maybe expect that one of the young WRs breaks out but feel totally unable to guess which one it is.

 

[voiceofunreason]

I don’t think it’s necessarily a poor ranking (would be a bit of a stretch if based off of projections) Take GB for example. Most will have Rodgers in the top 4. Of course Adams is a  top 5 WR for everyone but after that I can understand Geronimo, MVS, ESB, Kumerow and Jimmy Graham all ranked really low as one might expect Rodgers to spread the ball a lot or maybe expect that one of the young WRs breaks out but feel totally unable to guess which one it is.

I think it's a bad ranking for many reasons. Lack of weapons, elite running game, good defense, and Prescott hasn't shown that he's capable of being a top 5 qb. To each their own though.

 

[Ilov80s]

I think it's a bad ranking for many reasons. Lack of weapons, elite running game, good defense, and Prescott hasn't shown that he's capable of being a top 5 qb. To each their own though.

I’m not so much arguing that Dak at 5 is a smart rank or not. I’m high on Dak but not that high. My point was related to the perceived incongruous nature of the QB ranking with his WR/TE rankings. 

 

[TheWinz]

Question - does it make sense to have projections for a player, but not have the same rankings?  For example, if you say Saquon will have the most PPR FF pts in your projections, would it seem odd to have him ranked 4th?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Question - does it make sense to have projections for a player, but not have the same rankings?  For example, if you say Saquon will have the most PPR FF pts in your projections, would it seem odd to have him ranked 4th?

 Not for me necessarily. When I do projections I do so under a “best case scenario” standard, within reason.

My rankings would of course be based on the fantasy points those projected stats would produce but I would also take into account risk (i.e. injury, age, inconsistency, outside factors...) as well as upside if things really break right. So players could move down or up in the rankings despite the projected stats.

In other words my projections may show Todd Gurley as RB6, but I may take RB7 or RB8 ahead of him due to concerns about Gurley’s injury risk. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Question - does it make sense to have projections for a player, but not have the same rankings?  For example, if you say Saquon will have the most PPR FF pts in your projections, would it seem odd to have him ranked 4th?

IMO is ok with have projections and rankings different within reason. Amari Cooper is a good example. I can see how someone might have Cooper projected to score more points then say Diggs but rank Diggs higher because of Coopers track record of having 3 massive games and 7 absolute duds every season. Or I could see  in 2 QB leagues drafting Rivers or Cousins higher than Winston despite a lower 16 game projection just because Winston has the potential to completely bust and get benched midway through the season. 

 

[rzrback77]

Interesting discussion about rankings in general and particularly Waldman's QB5 ranking for Prescott, which seemed out of place IMO) at first glance. I looked at the current Footballguys staff rankings for QB over the last 35 days. Interestingly, the consensus of the 15 rankers is QB16, with a high outside of Waldman being QB11 and a low of QB21. That seems to back up the folks that are casting stones at Waldman's QB5.

However, a quick review of Prescott's career thus far shows finishes at QB6, QB11 and QB11. I would think that most would think that the return of Witten and Frederck, along with Cooper being in Dallas for the entire off-season, Gallup heading into year two, the addition of Cobb, the continued dominance of Elliott and last but not least a potential offensive scheme improvement should position Dallas and Prescott for improved offensive production. Top ten should not be out of consideration for Prescott, yet only Waldman has a ranking that high.

Side note - quarterback is very deep this season.

 

[nightmare]

People should not get hung up on rankings. The difference between QB6 and QB12 is 2 points per game.

There is a very good chance that half the Qb's that finish in the top 12 from 2018 will not finish in the top 12 in 2019.
We still draft them like they will and the experts rank them the same way.

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

Reports out of camp are that Dak’s accuracy has been much better and something he worked on in the offseason. 

Now will that carry over to the regular season when the bullets are flying? Who knows. 

 

[BobbyLayne]

2019 Rookie Evaluations

Waldman was on Harris Football podcast yesterday to discuss rookie landing spots.

Interesting conversation as both Matt and Chris Harris have the same general philosophy. They both value tape evaluations and their own perception of talent over other factors more commonly employed by pundits (i.e., athletic metrics, predictive modeling.) They don’t ignore data by any means - it confirms in quantitative terms what they see - but it just doesn’t carry as much weight. They trust what their eyes tell them.

Anyway, both are always entertaining, & this is worth a listen.

Players discussed:

Josh Jacobs (9:18)

David Montgomery & Miles Sanders (14:23)

Darwin Thompson (18:13)

Darrell Henderson (24:00)

Alexander Mattison (31:32)

Rodney Anderson & Bruce Anderson (35:23)

Kyler Murray (37:21)

D.K. Metcalf (41:45)

N’Keal Harry (44:30)

Miles Boykin (46:00)

Hakeem Butler (49:10)

Preston Williams (53:15)

Terry McLaurin (57:00)

No TE discussion. 

But still a great show. Enjoy!

 

[Iceman03]

This is what I love about him. Just about everyone else seems to be mailing it in or playing it safe, only varying their rankings a few from the consensus. At least he's not afraid to deviate.

Nevermind that he’s just out and out wrong most of the time... but at least he’s creative