Thorpe Strength of Schedule calculator (1 Viewer)

[Thorpe]

I've got an Excel program that calculates SOS based off of power ratings that you enter for each team, plus a constant value for home-field edge. Miami, Seattle, SD, Chicago, Jax, and Minny have the easiest schedules. If you want to post your power ratings in this thread or PM them to me, just copy and paste all of the team names below and instead of the SOS put a number between 0 and 16 which corresponds to the number of wins expected in a 16 game season vs an average NFL team. The total number of wins alloted to the 32 teams should be around if not equal to 256.

MIA 0.9

SEA 0.9

SD 0.8

CHI 0.8

JAC 0.8

MIN 0.8

DAL 0.7

IND 0.6

STL 0.5

NYJ 0.4

NE 0.4

ARI 0.3

DET 0.1

WAS 0.0

KC -0.1

PHI -0.1

BUF -0.1

NO -0.1

NYG -0.1

DEN -0.2

TEN -0.3

CLE -0.3

PIT -0.4

CAR -0.4

CIN -0.4

BAL -0.4

ATL -0.5

GB -0.7

HOU -0.8

TB -0.9

OAK -0.9

SF -1.3

I will check back on this thread at around 1:40 EST and then not until 4:00 EST today.

 

[Bri]

Eh just wait for the Gray colorred one

 

[texasbirdfan]

I've got an Excel program that calculates SOS based off of power ratings that you enter for each team, plus a constant value for home-field edge. Miami, Seattle, SD, Chicago, Jax, and Minny have the easiest schedules. If you want to post your power ratings in this thread or PM them to me, just copy and paste all of the team names below and instead of the SOS put a number between 0 and 16 which corresponds to the number of wins expected in a 16 game season vs an average NFL team. The total number of wins alloted to the 32 teams should be around if not equal to 256.

MIA 0.9

SEA 0.9

SD 0.8

CHI 0.8

JAC 0.8

MIN 0.8

DAL 0.7

IND 0.6

STL 0.5

NYJ 0.4

NE 0.4

ARI 0.3

DET 0.1

WAS 0.0

KC -0.1

PHI -0.1

BUF -0.1

NO -0.1

NYG -0.1

DEN -0.2

TEN -0.3

CLE -0.3

PIT -0.4

CAR -0.4

CIN -0.4

BAL -0.4

ATL -0.5

GB -0.7

HOU -0.8

TB -0.9

OAK -0.9

SF -1.3

I will check back on this thread at around 1:40 EST and then not until 4:00 EST today.

If you are using Prisco's recent CBS power rankings your statistical analysis is already flawed with teams like the Bears and Falcons at 20 and 22nd..

 

[Thorpe]

I've got an Excel program that calculates SOS based off of power ratings that you enter for each team, plus a constant value for home-field edge. Miami, Seattle, SD, Chicago, Jax, and Minny have the easiest schedules. If you want to post your power ratings in this thread or PM them to me, just copy and paste all of the team names below and instead of the SOS put a number between 0 and 16 which corresponds to the number of wins expected in a 16 game season vs an average NFL team. The total number of wins alloted to the 32 teams should be around if not equal to 256.

MIA 0.9

SEA 0.9

SD 0.8

CHI 0.8

JAC 0.8

MIN 0.8

DAL 0.7

IND 0.6

STL 0.5

NYJ 0.4

NE 0.4

ARI 0.3

DET 0.1

WAS 0.0

KC -0.1

PHI -0.1

BUF -0.1

NO -0.1

NYG -0.1

DEN -0.2

TEN -0.3

CLE -0.3

PIT -0.4

CAR -0.4

CIN -0.4

BAL -0.4

ATL -0.5

GB -0.7

HOU -0.8

TB -0.9

OAK -0.9

SF -1.3

I will check back on this thread at around 1:40 EST and then not until 4:00 EST today.

If you are using Prisco's recent CBS power rankings your statistical analysis is already flawed with teams like the Bears and Falcons at 20 and 22nd..

I'm not using Prisco or anyone else's analysis. I've got my own formula. Which team's strength of schedule do you think is flawed?

 

[videoguy505]

Let's use the most reliable win #s of all, the current Vegas lines, slightly adjusted +/- to get rid of .5s:

ARI 8

ATL 8

BAL 8

BUF 6

CAR 10

CHI 10

CIN 8

CLE 6

DAL 10

DEN 10

DET 7

GB 6

HOU 5

IND 12

JAX 9

KC 9

MIA 9

MIN 8

NE 11

NO 6

NYG 9

NYJ 6

OAK 6

PHI 9

PIT 10

SD 9

SF 5

SEA 11

STL 7

TB 8

TEN 5

WAS 9

total of 260 wins, but that should be close enough.

How does the "constant value for home field edge" work? Don't all teams get 8 home and 8 away? Or does it work on a game-by-game basis... if the home team and away team have a simliar ranking for an individual game, the constant favors the home team slightly?

 

[Thorpe]

Let's use the most reliable win #s of all, the current Vegas lines, slightly adjusted +/- to get rid of .5s:

ARI 8

ATL 8

BAL 8

BUF 6

CAR 10

CHI 10

CIN 8

CLE 6

DAL 10

DEN 10

DET 7

GB 6

HOU 5

IND 12

JAX 9

KC 9

MIA 9

MIN 8

NE 11

NO 6

NYG 9

NYJ 6

OAK 6

PHI 9

PIT 10

SD 9

SF 5

SEA 11

STL 7

TB 8

TEN 5

WAS 9

total of 260 wins, but that should be close enough.

How does the "constant value for home field edge" work? Don't all teams get 8 home and 8 away? Or does it work on a game-by-game basis... if the home team and away team have a simliar ranking for an individual game, the constant favors the home team slightly?

SEA 0.8CHI 0.8

SD 0.7

NE 0.5

MIA 0.4

BAL 0.4

CAR 0.3

PIT 0.3

DAL 0.3

MIN 0.2

ARI 0.2

JAC 0.1

KC 0.1

IND 0.0

NYJ 0.0

DEN -0.1

PHI -0.1

DET -0.1

ATL -0.2

WAS -0.2

STL -0.3

GB -0.5

CIN -0.5

NYG -0.6

CLE -0.6

BUF -0.6

OAK -0.6

TB -0.6

NO -0.8

HOU -0.9

SF -1.2

TEN -1.2

Some teams moved quite a bit, but the top 12 stayed pretty much the same. I think it is safe to say that the ten easiest schedules belong to SEA, CHI, SD, MIA, MIN, DAL, NE, JAC, IND, ARI.

here. here.

The Macro cycles through every game of the year, and for each game divides one win between the teams based off the power ratings. Each team gets a fraction of the win, with the fractions adding to 1. To compensate for home field the home teams gets a bonus of 1.5 onto their power rating. To compute the Strength of Schedule, for each team add up all the fractions and subtract the Power Rating.

I experimented with different formulas to compute the fractions, but the one settled on was using Cubes. If Buffalo has a PR=3.5 and NE =12, then you'd give 1.5 to the PR oF Buffalo because it is a home game to make it 5 and take:

(5^3 / (5^3 + 12^3))= 125/(125 + 1728) = 125/1853 = .07 for Buffalo and .93 for NE.

If Dallas at 10 plays Denver at 10, and the game is at Dallas, then the denominator is 1000 + 1521 = 2521, it is .60 for Dallas and .40 for Denver.

 

[Wadsworth]

This is NFL SOS not fantasy, correct?

It looks like the 4 games with houston and tenn are really lowering the SOS for the Jags and colts. Because other than those games they both play pretty tough schedules.

 

[Thorpe]

This is NFL SOS not fantasy, correct?

It looks like the 4 games with houston and tenn are really lowering the SOS for the Jags and colts. Because other than those games they both play pretty tough schedules.

It is for NFL. Nothing to do with Fantasy. I agree with your assessment of the Jags and Indy. But Houston and Tennesee are two of the worst teams, and how hard can your schedule be if 25 percent of it is against the bottom 5 of the league. This is unfair to Jax, because Houston always play them tough.It would be nice to have breakouts for In/Out of Conference, In/Out of Division, and Home/Away. That is my next project.