Thoughts on Rounds 2 & 3 this year.... (1 Viewer)

[Evilgrin 72]

I don't want this to be an ACF thread, but I'll give you the specifics of why I am asking and solicit opinions on where the talent drop-offs are this year. In a 12-team redraft with 1 pt per 15 receiving yards for WR and TE, 1 point per 20 rushing yards (or reciving for RBs), and 1 pt per 50 yards, all TD 6 pts, NO TE required, start 1 QB / 2 RB / 3 WR/TE, NO PPR, I was offered the following deal :

Trade picks 2.5, 3.8, and 5.8 (17, 32, and 56 overall)

Receive picks 2.10, 3.3, and 5.3 (22, 27, and 51 overall)

Pick value calculator has it as a near wash (2464 points for the picks I receive and 2467 for the ones I trade, IIRC) so it's really a matter of personal opinion. I am leaning towards making the deal, as I think that there is potentially a more precipitous dropoff between 3.3 and 3.8 than there is between 2.5 and 2.10. For example :

Current ADP at Antsports has the following players going at the spots above :

Trade Torry Holt, Hines Ward/Roy Williams/Reuben Droughns, TJ Houshmandzadeh

Receive Randy Moss, Chester Taylor/Willie Parker/Reggie Bush, Derrick Mason

I rather like the latter, as I think any of the three backs typically available at 3.3 are a marked improvement over those around at 3.8, while I think the two receivers changing places are basically a wash (Moss/Mason vs. Holt/Housh) Also, it seems that QB runs are taking place around the top of round 5, in the most recent "Serious Mock Draft" - Hasselbeck went at 5.2, Palmer at 5.3, Brady at 5.4, Bulger at 5.7 and McNabb at 5.8. Thus, if a QB in the fifth is your plan (and right now, it may well be mine) - the difference between QB3 and QB6 may be large.

OK, to further it along, I ran a "My Team Mock Draft" on the Dominator, using "draft other teams by ADP" and making adjustments where I saw fit (using injuries, recent events since the last ADP update) Here are the squads I got in the first 6 rounds, filling all starting roster spots for position players...

Without trading :

QB - Eli Manning

RB - Rudi Johnson

RB - DeShaun Foster

WR - Chad Johnson

WR - Roy Williams

WR - Joey Galloway

With the trade :

QB - Carson Palmer

RB - Rudi Johnson

RB - Reggie Bush

WR- Marvin Harrison

WR- Donald Driver

WR- Joey Galloway

Again, I kind of like the second team better, although there are more ??, there is more upside.

Bottom line : What do you guys think are the key spots where talent falls off this year? I see a dropoff around pick 22, and another around 30 or 31. That's what prompts me to consider this deal. For those of you in the 3 or 8 spots in 12-team leagues - would you consider making such a deal? Perhaps this will give you a foundation to make an offer.

Thoughts? I am strongly leaning towards trading right now.

 

[Deranged Hermit]

I had the 1.11 pick this year and went Edge/Holt with my picks and traded up in the early third to get McGahee. Maybe a trade up into the third to get a RB of the ilk of McGahee/Parker/Taylor? I know McGahee dropped about 6 picks lower than he normally does, but someone always drops in a draft.

 

[u999spf]

I made a similar trade in my league, 2.5 and 3.8 for 2.12 and 3.1. I was planning on going RB/WR/RB or RB/WR/WR if 2 studs fall or maybe even RB/TE/RB in TE leagues.

I like the team after the trade better. Dropping back in the 2nd this year is nto that big a deal and you moved up in 2 other rounds. I wish I was able to move up in the 5th round as well for a QB or WR.

 

[Borat]

I like the trade. The difference between 2.5 and 2.10 may not be that big (Holt/Moss is just about even, in my opinion, with Moss being the higher risk/higher reward), and I like the idea of moving up in the 3rd and the 5th (I have always believed that mid-round picks in the 4 - 6 range are extremely underrated).

 

[fightingillini]

IMO, the talent drops off here;

QB - Manning

RB - LJ, LT, Alexander, Portis, Tiki, Jordan, Jackson, R Brown, R Johnson, CWilliams, Edge

WR - S Smith, C Johnson, Holt, Fitzgerald, Owens, Harrison, Boldin

TE - Gates

This is a total of 20 players. After these guys, the next 8 QBs are lumped in a tier, as well as the next 8 or so RBs, as well as a group of 6-7 WRs.

To guarantee that you get two of these guys (definitely won't be 2 of the RBs) with your top 2 picks, then stay put.....you'll get Manning or one of the top WRs with the 17 pick......a decent RB will be available in the 3rd.

But if your league is RB heavy, then 2-3 of the next tier of backs should be gone before the 22 pick (most likely guys like Westbrook and McGahee), which allows you to get Manning, Gates, or one of the top tier WRs with the 22nd pick, and you gained in the 3rd and 5th rounds.

I would most likely gamble and take the deal.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Thanks for the input guys. As far as my league goes (being RB heavy or not, etc...) I put together a recap of each year's draft and the number of players taken at each position in each round. It's surprisingly consistent, and helps me create a sort of customized VBD. In my league, the last three years :

2003

Round 1 - 0 QB, 10 RB, 2 WR

Round 2 - 2 QB, 9 RB, 1 WR

Round 3 - 5 QB, 1 RB, 6 WR

Round 4 - 0 QB, 2 RB, 10 WR

Round 5 - 3 QB, 2 RB, 7 WR

Not very RB heavy, as we had a lot of new owners that year that jumped on QBs.

2004

Round 1 - 0 QB, 10 RB, 2 WR

Round 2 - 2 QB, 8 RB, 2 WR

Round 3 - 4 QB, 3 RB, 5 WR

Round 4 - 1 QB, 4 RB, 7 WR

Round 5 - 0 QB, 4 RB, 8 WR

Round 6 - 5 QB, 0 RB, 5 WR

Starting to get more savvy and waiting on QBs, but the tendency to grab starting WRs before backup RBs is still evident...

2005

Round 1 - 1 QB, 10 RB, 1 WR

Round 2 - 0 QB, 8 RB, 4 WR

Round 3 - 3 QB, 3 RB, 6 WR

Round 4 - 3 QB, 2 RB, 7 WR

Round 5 - 2 QB, 1 RB, 9 WR

Round 6 - 2 QB, 3 RB, 7 WR

More stretching of the QBs, but still heavy on WRs in the rounds 4-6 rather than backup RBs.

It's because of this that I had considered going RB/WR/WR/RB or RB/WR/WR/WR this year, since very few backs go off the board after round 2. I want to try to stay ahead of the runs and can do so whether or not I make the deal. Picking in early round 3 gives me chance at a top-20 back though, as opposed to RB 23-24, and I definitely see a dropoff after about 19-20 backs this year. Moving up in round 5 gives me a shot at a top-20 receiver too.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I pulled the trigger, trading 2.5, 3.8, and 5.8 for 2.10, 3.3, and 5.3.

I'll let you know what players went at those spots - my draft is the 26th.