Through 4 weeks, who is the league MVP? DPOY? (1 Viewer)

[jurb26]

Rivers is MVP so far.

He is dominating as a passer (leading league in passer rating, 9:1 TD:int ratio, etc.). His team is 3-1, with the marquee win of the season to date over Seattle, and its only loss by 1 point on the road to a team that won 10 games last season.

Now consider:

1. The OL is once again one of the worst in the NFL. PFF ranks the Chargers as #27 in pass blocking and #28 in run blocking. Starting C Hardwick played just 16 snaps and is out for the season. The second string C also got hurt, and the third string C had to play 66 snaps vs. JAX.

2. The Chargers have the worst running game in the NFL so far, and it's not close. Mathews will miss 4+ games and Woodhead essentially 14 (he played 1 snap in week 3). Meanwhile, PFF ranks Donald Brown #52 out of 53 RBs who have played 25%+ of their teams' snaps.

That said, there is a long way to go. The Chargers will have to continue winning for Rivers to have a chance.

IMO Watt and Murray (and every other non-QB) have zero chance at MVP.

Outsiders has SD ranked 5th best in the NFL at pass blocking and 31st in run blocking. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

Luck is ranked 1st among QBs.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

Murray 1st among RBs.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

Like it or not Murray has a real shot at his current pace. His projecting to break the single season rushing record and score 20 TDs. If Dal makes the playoffs on his back then he's easily in the final 3. Of course if a QB like Luck remains on his pace and passes for over 5,200 yds and 55 TDs while leading his team to the playoffs it pretty much his to lose. The reality is the guys aren't likely to remain their current course. They will probably dip down. Who dips most, or perhaps not all, will be key. Also, someone else could easily emerge and catch fire. The games that haven't been played yet will resonate with voters far more than the one that have.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Huh? He's had at least 3 TDs in every game so far, 4 in 3 of his games. He's had 370 yds or more in 3 of 4 games.

He had 2 turnovers against Denver, and fewer than 7 yards per attempt. It was a solid game, especially since Denver looks much improved on defense this year, but not a great one. And his game against Philadelphia was no-two-ways-about-it a bad game. 20/34 passing for just 174 yards? That's 5 yards per attempt. Against a BAD defense.

I haven't seen all the week 4 stats updated yet, but he handily trails several other quarterbacks in a whole host of statistics, from ANYA to DVOA to DYAR to QBR to PFF Grade (though he does lead in EPA and EPA/P). And again, his raw statistics aren't accounting for the quality of competition he's beating up on.

I would put him solidly behind both Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers in my own personal MVP race, and would put him on a comparable level to Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan. Those five have been head and shoulders above the rest of the league, though.

Strange you omitted TDs in both games.

Not that strange. It's the most over-weighted statistic when it comes to player analysis. Andy Dalton was 3rd in the league in passing TDs last year, but outside of the top 10 in YPA, ANYA, QBR, DYAR, and DVOA. Which gives a better picture of his true level of play? Besides, TDs are already accounted for in DVOA, DYAR, EPA, EPA/P, ANYA, QBR, and the PFF grade.

 

[Leonidas]

Rivers MVP of the first 1/4 of the season

Watt and Murray in the discussion.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Rivers is MVP so far.

He is dominating as a passer (leading league in passer rating, 9:1 TD:int ratio, etc.). His team is 3-1, with the marquee win of the season to date over Seattle, and its only loss by 1 point on the road to a team that won 10 games last season.

Now consider:

1. The OL is once again one of the worst in the NFL. PFF ranks the Chargers as #27 in pass blocking and #28 in run blocking. Starting C Hardwick played just 16 snaps and is out for the season. The second string C also got hurt, and the third string C had to play 66 snaps vs. JAX.

2. The Chargers have the worst running game in the NFL so far, and it's not close. Mathews will miss 4+ games and Woodhead essentially 14 (he played 1 snap in week 3). Meanwhile, PFF ranks Donald Brown #52 out of 53 RBs who have played 25%+ of their teams' snaps.

That said, there is a long way to go. The Chargers will have to continue winning for Rivers to have a chance.

IMO Watt and Murray (and every other non-QB) have zero chance at MVP.

Outsiders has SD ranked 5th best in the NFL at pass blocking and 31st in run blocking.http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

Luck is ranked 1st among QBs.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

Murray 1st among RBs.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

Like it or not Murray has a real shot at his current pace. His projecting to break the single season rushing record and score 20 TDs. If Dal makes the playoffs on his back then he's easily in the final 3. Of course if a QB like Luck remains on his pace and passes for over 5,200 yds and 55 TDs while leading his team to the playoffs it pretty much his to lose. The reality is the guys aren't likely to remain their current course. They will probably dip down. Who dips most, or perhaps not all, will be key. Also, someone else could easily emerge and catch fire. The games that haven't been played yet will resonate with voters far more than the one that have.

I've long been a fan of FO's stats, and you might remember that I got a lot of "do you even watch the games?" accusations a decade or so back whenever I'd post any of their metrics. With that said, some of their stats are pretty much useless. DVOA for wide receivers, for instance- basically, if you're the 3rd option on an explosive offense, you're probably going to finish among the league leaders in DVOA. Anyway, their pass-blocking stats don't measure offensive line quality nearly as much as they measure quarterback quality. Unless you believe that Denver had the 29th-best pass-blocking offensive line in 2011 and the 2nd-best pass-blocking offensive line in 2012. And Indy had the best pass-blocking OL in 2010 and the 18th-best in 2011.

PFF has plenty of flaws, too- and they're also susceptible to overrating offensive linemen who have elite quarterbacks behind them- but I trust them a lot more as a measure of offensive line quality.

 

[jurb26]

Huh? He's had at least 3 TDs in every game so far, 4 in 3 of his games. He's had 370 yds or more in 3 of 4 games.

He had 2 turnovers against Denver, and fewer than 7 yards per attempt. It was a solid game, especially since Denver looks much improved on defense this year, but not a great one. And his game against Philadelphia was no-two-ways-about-it a bad game. 20/34 passing for just 174 yards? That's 5 yards per attempt. Against a BAD defense.

I haven't seen all the week 4 stats updated yet, but he handily trails several other quarterbacks in a whole host of statistics, from ANYA to DVOA to DYAR to QBR to PFF Grade (though he does lead in EPA and EPA/P). And again, his raw statistics aren't accounting for the quality of competition he's beating up on.

I would put him solidly behind both Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers in my own personal MVP race, and would put him on a comparable level to Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan. Those five have been head and shoulders above the rest of the league, though.

Strange you omitted TDs in both games.

Not that strange. It's the most over-weighted statistic when it comes to player analysis. Andy Dalton was 3rd in the league in passing TDs last year, but outside of the top 10 in YPA, ANYA, QBR, DYAR, and DVOA. Which gives a better picture of his true level of play? Besides, TDs are already accounted for in DVOA, DYAR, EPA, EPA/P, ANYA, QBR, and the PFF grade.

TDs are not over-weighted at all. Unless you don't really like winning. Any stat can be manipulated to paint a picture. It's a common enterprise in sports. Saying his game vs. Philly was bad and there is no way around it is totally off base. He had 3 TDs. Scoring points matters in games. There is a reason he doesn't get as many deep passes as other QBs. At any rate, these stats you love so much like DVOA actually do rank him as the best QB right now. So I'll assume you will back off the down playing of Luck?BTW, here's a note com PFF on Luck this week.

"Indianapolis Colts: When the Colts have 1 or 2 yards to go for a touchdown, Andrew Luck has attempted five passes. All five have been for touchdowns."

 

[Adam Harstad]

TDs are not over-weighted at all. Unless you don't really like winning. Any stat can be manipulated to paint a picture. It's a common enterprise in sports. Saying his game vs. Philly was bad and there is no way around it is totally off base. He had 3 TDs. Scoring points matters in games. There is a reason he doesn't get as many deep passes as other QBs. At any rate, these stats you love so much like DVOA actually do rank him as the best QB right now. So I'll assume you will back off the down playing of Luck?

Saying he's a top-5 QB (and possibly my #3 overall) through the quarter pole counts as down-playing?

Also, setting aside the fact that DVOA still isn't really adjusting for opponent this early in the season, DVOA rates him as the #4 quarterback behind Ryan, Rivers, and Manning (not coincidentally, those are three of the four quarterbacks I also included in my top 5). QBR has him 5th behind Manning, Rivers, Rodgers, and Romo (hey, there are a lot of those names I keep mentioning again).

 

[jurb26]

TDs are not over-weighted at all. Unless you don't really like winning. Any stat can be manipulated to paint a picture. It's a common enterprise in sports. Saying his game vs. Philly was bad and there is no way around it is totally off base. He had 3 TDs. Scoring points matters in games. There is a reason he doesn't get as many deep passes as other QBs. At any rate, these stats you love so much like DVOA actually do rank him as the best QB right now. So I'll assume you will back off the down playing of Luck?

Saying he's a top-5 QB (and possibly my #3 overall) through the quarter pole counts as down-playing?

Also, setting aside the fact that DVOA still isn't really adjusting for opponent this early in the season, DVOA rates him as the #4 quarterback behind Ryan, Rivers, and Manning (not coincidentally, those are three of the four quarterbacks I also included in my top 5). QBR has him 5th behind Manning, Rivers, Rodgers, and Romo (hey, there are a lot of those names I keep mentioning again).

Claiming Luck has had a bad game vs. Philly is down playing him. Yes. He's not had any bad games.

 

[craxie]

(really) dark horse OROY candidates: Bortles, Hurns

dark horse DROY candidates: Verrett (if he can stay healthy)

 

[Voice Of Reason]

TDs are not over-weighted at all. Unless you don't really like winning. Any stat can be manipulated to paint a picture. It's a common enterprise in sports. Saying his game vs. Philly was bad and there is no way around it is totally off base. He had 3 TDs. Scoring points matters in games. There is a reason he doesn't get as many deep passes as other QBs. At any rate, these stats you love so much like DVOA actually do rank him as the best QB right now. So I'll assume you will back off the down playing of Luck?

Saying he's a top-5 QB (and possibly my #3 overall) through the quarter pole counts as down-playing?

Also, setting aside the fact that DVOA still isn't really adjusting for opponent this early in the season, DVOA rates him as the #4 quarterback behind Ryan, Rivers, and Manning (not coincidentally, those are three of the four quarterbacks I also included in my top 5). QBR has him 5th behind Manning, Rivers, Rodgers, and Romo (hey, there are a lot of those names I keep mentioning again).

Claiming Luck has had a bad game vs. Philly is down playing him. Yes. He's not had any bad games.

Luck had a bad game vs Philly.

 

[Ghost Rider]

The sad thing for Rivers is that he is so overlooked most of the time that he probably needs to statistically outdo every other serious QB candidate to win it. If he and Luck have similar stats and their teams win about the same number of games, the media will give it to Luck, cause they are so waiting to ordain him. And that is not meant to demean Luck, as he looks really, really good already and should be a great one for a long time.

 

[Bri]

No fans are as passionate about one player as SD fans and Phillip Rivers. It's been an interesting experience starting with the Brees days

 

[Tau837]

The sad thing for Rivers is that he is so overlooked most of the time that he probably needs to statistically outdo every other serious QB candidate to win it. If he and Luck have similar stats and their teams win about the same number of games, the media will give it to Luck, cause they are so waiting to ordain him. And that is not meant to demean Luck, as he looks really, really good already and should be a great one for a long time.

 

[Tau837]

Through 5 weeks, MVP is still Rivers.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I agree, although he has the edge over Manning cause Peyton has had his bye already, so Rivers has played one more game. Ultimately, it could come down to those two, with how each plays in the two Denver/SD games and who wins the division being the tiebreakers.

 

[purestrength]

I think MVP will come down to Peyton and Luck. If it's close after 16 games, they'll give it to Luck because Peyton's won it so many times already.

 

[Leonidas]

I agree, although he has the edge over Manning cause Peyton has had his bye already, so Rivers has played one more game. Ultimately, it could come down to those two, with how each plays in the two Denver/SD games and who wins the division being the tiebreakers.

Granted, it's a team game.

Granted, game locations were different.

Granted, Peyton didn't get a shot in OT.

But...

Rivers beat SEA. Peyton did not.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I agree, although he has the edge over Manning cause Peyton has had his bye already, so Rivers has played one more game. Ultimately, it could come down to those two, with how each plays in the two Denver/SD games and who wins the division being the tiebreakers.

Granted, it's a team game.

Granted, game locations were different.

Granted, Peyton didn't get a shot in OT.

But...

Rivers beat SEA. Peyton did not.

Right, which is why I'd give Rivers the edge right now, but if the Broncos win the division and Manning outplays Rivers in both Den/SD games, Manning will get the edge then. I think Luck could still be in the mix as well.

 

[oswizzle]

Manning got all the bugs worked out during the Bye....with a healthy WRs ...he's the Man right now

 

[Run It Up]

Gonna have to go with Rivers through 5 weeks.

Philip Rivers on third down: 7 TDs, one pick, rating of 134.8 and 10.15 YPA.

 

[Rubi]

Rivers and Luck are close for MVP,both are carrying their teams offense.

 

[Phenomena]

Does anyone think if the top QBs all remain bunched with stats/wins AND Watt remains on his beastly pace, that they would actually give the MVP to him?

I think it could definitely happen but Houston is going to have to at least make it to the playoffs, and probably win a game or two. They'll never give it to a defensive player on a losing team, even one that tilts the field as much as Watt.

 

[Run It Up]

Does anyone think if the top QBs all remain bunched with stats/wins AND Watt remains on his beastly pace, that they would actually give the MVP to him?

I think it could definitely happen but Houston is going to have to at least make it to the playoffs, and probably win a game or two. They'll never give it to a defensive player on a losing team, even one that tilts the field as much as Watt.

No.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

League MVP: JJ Watt. (Runner up: Philip Rivers.)

I'm standing by this. Not as a prediction, but as the right answer.

 

[Ghost Rider]

For a defensive player to win it, you only have to completely dominate, but you need to make the playoffs and probably be on a team that wins 11+ games. Sadly for Watt, the Texans don't have the QB for that to happen. But he's arguably the most disruptive single defensive player the league has seen in a long time.

 

[womb]

For a defensive player to win it, you only have to completely dominate, but you need to make the playoffs and probably be on a team that wins 11+ games. Sadly for Watt, the Texans don't have the QB for that to happen. But he's arguably the most disruptive single defensive player the league has seen in a long time.

I do not want to believe this assessment no matter how valid it may be.

I trust that there is a difference between disruptive and game changing. He looks to be that singular game changing force for the Texans, be it take aways, scores, intensity of team play, time of possession or even the starting field position for the offense.

I would think that it would be sad if it boiled down only to the W-L column that a DE can control possibly to this extent.

 

[FUBAR]

For a defensive player to win it, you only have to completely dominate, but you need to make the playoffs and probably be on a team that wins 11+ games. Sadly for Watt, the Texans don't have the QB for that to happen. But he's arguably the most disruptive single defensive player the league has seen in a long time.

I do not want to believe this assessment no matter how valid it may be.

I trust that there is a difference between disruptive and game changing. He looks to be that singular game changing force for the Texans, be it take aways, scores, intensity of team play, time of possession or even the starting field position for the offense.

I would think that it would be sad if it boiled down only to the W-L column that a DE can control possibly to this extent.

Even in the loss, it was clear how valuable Watt is.

It was nice to see the best young players in the league play on TNF - Watt's sack as Luck was running towards the end zone was absolutely beautiful.

 

[jurb26]

The league MVP is very close right now IMO. Luck and Rivers are neck and neck by my estimation. Luck is on pace for 5300/45 passing and 300/5 on the ground. Rivers is playing at an unreal efficiency with over 70% completion%, YPA of 8.75 and a rating of 116.3. Both have sir teams at first in their divisions and on track to be in the playoffs. I'd give Indy a slight edge in that regard even though tier record is slightly worse. They are 3-0 in their division while SD has yet to play a division game.

After those 2 I think it's a tier of Murray and Watt. Murray's pace is looking at 2114/16 rushing and 400/0 receiving. Over 2500 total yds. Watt has scored 3 TDs, yes 3 in 6 games for a defensive end! On top of that Watt is on pace for 10 sacks, 16 PD and 69 tackles.

After that there is a group of players like; Manning, Wilson, Rodgers, Ryan and Brees who aren't playing a the caliber of the above 4 but who are having good seasons and we could see pushes from.

Unfortunately I see Murray and Watt on the outside looking in because QB is such a favored position in awards like this. If Luck and Rivers continue their performances it will be a 2 horse race.

 

[Ghost Rider]

As great as Luck is and will continue to be, I still can't put him at the top cause he has too many turnovers. Rivers has him beat comfortably in QBR, YPA and completion percentage, not to mention he has the most impressive QB performance of the season so far (the win over Seattle). Luck would be in my top 5, don't get me wrong, but I'd have Rivers and Watt both ahead of him, and probably Peyton as well.

 

[Run It Up]

I feel like Rivers and Antonio Brown are somehow neck and neck.

 

[jurb26]

I feel like Rivers and Antonio Brown are somehow neck and neck.

Then you shouldn't trust your feelings.

 

[Run It Up]

I feel like Rivers and Antonio Brown are somehow neck and neck.

Then you shouldn't trust your feelings.

You're right, its a three headed race, throw Forte in there.

 

[jurb26]

I feel like Rivers and Antonio Brown are somehow neck and neck.

Then you shouldn't trust your feelings.

You're right, its a three headed race, throw Forte in there.

It's a 4 headed race of Manning, Luck, River and Murray.

 

[Buffaloes]

yeah, Luck HAS to be in the conversation

 

[Run It Up]

Forte: 1052 total yards, 6 total TDs, 58 Receptions and 130 attempts (188 touches) in 8 games, 1 fumble

Murray: 1072 total yards, 7 total TDs, 22 Receptions and 187 attempts (209 touches) in 7 games, 4 fumbles

Nah, ill still take Forte.

 

[jurb26]

Forte: 1052 total yards, 6 total TDs, 58 Receptions and 130 attempts (188 touches) in 8 games, 1 fumble

Murray: 1072 total yards, 7 total TDs, 22 Receptions and 187 attempts (209 touches) in 7 games, 4 fumbles

Nah, ill still take Forte.

So you'll take the guy with less total yds, less points scored on more games playing on a team that is 3-5 vs a guy who is leading his team to 6-1. Good to see we have no bias here.

 

[Run It Up]

Forte: 1052 total yards, 6 total TDs, 58 Receptions and 130 attempts (188 touches) in 8 games, 1 fumble

Murray: 1072 total yards, 7 total TDs, 22 Receptions and 187 attempts (209 touches) in 7 games, 4 fumbles

Nah, ill still take Forte.

So you'll take the guy with less total yds, less points scored on more games playing on a team that is 3-5 vs a guy who is leading his team to 6-1. Good to see we have no bias here.

Fortes YPT is 5.59, 6:1 TD/Giveaway

Murrays YPT is 5.12, 1.75:1 TD/Giveaway

Such bias, much wow.

 

[Buffaloes]

Forte? you serious, clark?

 

[Tau837]

@ Forte

 

[Freelove]

I don't fault anyone for thinking Forte deserves MVP consideration. He's having a helluva year.

But this would have to be the first year you've ever watched the game to think he had a chance of winning it.

 

[Run It Up]

I don't fault anyone for thinking Forte deserves MVP consideration. He's having a helluva year.

But this would have to be the first year you've ever watched the game to think he had a chance of winning it.

No I'm well aware that MVP actually means QB that threw for the most tds regardless of circumstances.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I don't fault anyone for thinking Forte deserves MVP consideration. He's having a helluva year.

But this would have to be the first year you've ever watched the game to think he had a chance of winning it.

No I'm well aware that MVP actually means QB that threw for the most tds regardless of circumstances.

Peterson, Tomlinson, and Alexander have all won league MVP in the last decade.

 

[Run It Up]

I don't fault anyone for thinking Forte deserves MVP consideration. He's having a helluva year.

But this would have to be the first year you've ever watched the game to think he had a chance of winning it.

No I'm well aware that MVP actually means QB that threw for the most tds regardless of circumstances.

Peterson, Tomlinson, and Alexander have all won league MVP in the last decade.

Record breaking seasons right?

So QB that throws for the most TDs unless a RB has a record breaking season.

 

[Tau837]

I don't fault anyone for thinking Forte deserves MVP consideration. He's having a helluva year.

But this would have to be the first year you've ever watched the game to think he had a chance of winning it.

No I'm well aware that MVP actually means QB that threw for the most tds regardless of circumstances.

Peterson, Tomlinson, and Alexander have all won league MVP in the last decade.

Record breaking seasons right?

So QB that throws for the most TDs unless a RB has a record breaking season.

You are missing the obvious. How can a player be MVP if his team had a losing season? Had that player not played, the team still would have missed the playoffs. If Chicago was on track for the playoffs, you'd have a better (but still unlikely) case.

 

[Ladsud]

Its Manning and Watt. Broncos are going to go 14-2 and hes going to have 5000 and 50 again. Luck is awesome but hes not on Mannings level just yet.

 

[Donnybrook]

OROY: Sammy Watkins

DROY: Anthony Barr

 

[Ladsud]

Forte: 1052 total yards, 6 total TDs, 58 Receptions and 130 attempts (188 touches) in 8 games, 1 fumble

Murray: 1072 total yards, 7 total TDs, 22 Receptions and 187 attempts (209 touches) in 7 games, 4 fumbles

Nah, ill still take Forte.

Those receptions by Forte is part of the problem in Chicago, Cutler being too much of a #### to push the ball down the field to his WRs shouldnt put you in MVP consideration. If were talking about RBs being an MVP, Murray and Foster have done much more to carry there teams to wins over Forte.

 

[ZWK]

MVP: Rivers (Manning, ... Luck, Rodgers)

DPOY: Watt

OROY: Watkins (Benjamin, Bitonio, Lewan)

DROY: Donald (Mack, Fuller)

 

[jon_mx]

It will be Manning. No one else is in the conversation.

 

[Adam Harstad]

MVP: Rivers (Manning, ... Luck, Rodgers)

DPOY: Watt

OROY: Watkins (Benjamin, Bitonio, Lewan)

DROY: Donald (Mack, Fuller)

No OPoY?

 

[Adam Harstad]

It will be Manning. No one else is in the conversation.

I think Manning has taken the lead, but to suggest no one else is in the conversation is silly. Rivers, Luck, Rodgers, and Watt should all be very much in the conversation.