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Tiki a HOFer? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Mikeyburns
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Koya
Footballguy
An end of the regular season update (he isnt there yet, but he had a HoF year, this year - two years in a row now).
with 2,341 yards, Tiki not only led the league in yards from scrimmage, he accounted for the 4th highest total in the history of the NFL.***
I believe he also cracked the top 20 for Yards from Scrimmage, all time NFL.
Again, I dont think he will have enough peak seasons to make it - but this year was a HoF caliber year, no doubt.
Edit to add: According to the NY Post, Tiki had 2,390 Total Yards from scrimmage, which is the SECOND highest total EVER - to Faulks 2,429 in '99.
with 2,341 yards, Tiki not only led the league in yards from scrimmage, he accounted for the 4th highest total in the history of the NFL.***
I believe he also cracked the top 20 for Yards from Scrimmage, all time NFL.
Again, I dont think he will have enough peak seasons to make it - but this year was a HoF caliber year, no doubt.
Edit to add: According to the NY Post, Tiki had 2,390 Total Yards from scrimmage, which is the SECOND highest total EVER - to Faulks 2,429 in '99.
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H.K.
Footballguy
Yep, he's top 20 now.from pro-football-reference.com:
All-time leaders total yardage
1. J Rice 23540
2. E Smith 21579
3. W Payton 21264
4. *M Faulk 19154
5. B Sanders 18190
6. M Allen 17654
7. *C Martin 17430
8. T Thomas 16532
9. T Dorsett 16293
10. E Dickerson 15396
11. T Brown 15124
12. *J Bettis 15111
13. R Watters 14891
14. J Brown 14811
15. F Harris 14407
16. J Lofton 14250
17. C Carter 13940
18. H Ellard 13827
19. A Reed 13698
20. *T Barber 13504
*still playing
Barber is 1892 yards from being top ten all-time....interesting to see if guys like Ellard, Reed, and Carter on this list, too.
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ThisGuy
Ignored by Nipsey
That's an amazing stat! He really could be Top 10 by then end of next season. I don't think that is out of the question at all.Some more stats for ya from Pete King. He compares Tiki and Thurman Thomas in his MMQB this week.
Tiki vs Thermal
I've said it in this thread that he's the greatest Giants RB of all time and will have 21 retired when he does, but another solid season or 2 and you really do have to consider him a HOF'er. Top 10 all time in total yardage goes a very long way for me.
Balco
Footballguy
Tiki vs Thermal
I've said it in this thread that he's the greatest Giants RB of all time and will have 21 retired when he does, but another solid season or 2 and you really do have to consider him a HOF'er. Top 10 all time in total yardage goes a very long way for me.
After two years with 2000 + he should start getting consideration, but he just didn't do enough early in his career. Aside from 2004/2005 has he had anyother outstanding seasons?
I've said it in this thread that he's the greatest Giants RB of all time and will have 21 retired when he does, but another solid season or 2 and you really do have to consider him a HOF'er. Top 10 all time in total yardage goes a very long way for me.
After two years with 2000 + he should start getting consideration, but he just didn't do enough early in his career. Aside from 2004/2005 has he had anyother outstanding seasons?
David Yudkin
Footballguy
People keep saying that Tiki only needs 2 or 3 more seasons similar to this year or last to merit serious consideration for the HOF. That certainly sounds easy enough, but I think people are not fully aware that he's getting to the point where most RB see a precipitous drop in producivity.Barber will be 31 to start the 2006 season. There has only been 1 RB (Walter Payton) that had 2,000 total yards as a 31-year-old and only two others that had even 1,800 total yards (Watters and Martin). No RB older than 31 has had 1,800 total yards in a season, and only Jerry Rice had 1,800 or more yards at that age (33).Barber may have it in him, but he would have to buck a lot of trends to do it.
Koya
Footballguy
For one, I don't think Tiki will end up with an HoF career.That said, the reasons it may be possible are because he is bucking a lot of trends.
You know a lot about the stats and the trends historically - do we know of any other backs who averaged less than 130 carries a year for the first 5 years of their career, only to then blossom into an elite NFL player.
Tiki's career was basically a third down back for the first 5 years of his career.
His last four have seen three great to exceptional seasons, with one pretty good season during which the team was awful (just couldnt score as a team, and neither did Tiki).
Considering the lack of workload early in his career, it is certainly feasible to think he could extend the oncoming wall by 2-3 years, as his first 5 years might have accounted for only 2-3 years of wear and tear.
Lets say that while most RBs would hit the wall about now, Tiki might have two peak seasons, and one or two decline season before being relagated to backup or retirement or embarassment while holding on too long.
Two peak seasons at 1500+ Rushing and 500 or so receiving, plus another two declining years that average 1,000 rushing (something like 1200 then 800 then retirement or permabench) and 400 receiving (assuming he catches more and might run a little less). Figure first two years he has 10-11 TDs each, and the next two combines for 8-10.
This pattern would seem to fit a lot of RBs when they hit the wall and have a quick one or two year decline. If we assume Tiki has two "extra" years to work with because of his very light workload, we have a feasible career of:
Nearly 14,000 Yards Rushing, over 6,000 receiving. 90+ Total Touchdowns.
He will be All Pro this year, possibly another if he does this next year (and his rep will help). He will probably end up with 3-5 Pro Bowls (this will be his second, and getting at least one more and possibly two with the competition we see in the NFC is very attainable).
It would be hard to argue with this. Yes, this takes a rosy push the inevitable wall off a couple years scenario ... but again, has any RB risen from part timer to Elite RB after being in the league 5+ years?
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I bolded the section that is problematic.As I mentioned early, it is very easy to "pencil in" Barber for 4 more good to great seasons, but history has shown that very few RB that will be worth a fraction of that at that age. This is not to say that Barber can't do it, just that the odds are wafer thin.
As I said already, no 31-year-old RB has had a 2,000 yard season--yet you are giving him one at 31 AND one at 32. Then he would go on to amass 1,600 yards at 33 and 1,200 yards at 34.
To review all RB from 1960 . . .
31-year-old RB w/1,500 total yards: 5
31-year-old RB w/1,800 total yards: 3
31-year-old RB w/2,000 total yards: 1
32-year-old RB w/1,100 total yards: 5
32-year-old RB w/1,300 total yards: 1
32-year-old RB w/1,500 total yards: 1
33-year-old RB w/1,100 total yards: 2
33-year-old RB w/1,300 total yards: 1
33-year-old RB w/1,500 total yards: 0
34-year-old RB w/1,100 total yards: 2
34-year-old RB w/1,300 total yards: 1
34-year-old RB w/1,500 total yards: 0
More power to him if he can do it . . .
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David,IMO medicine, specifically surgically repaired ligaments, is eons ahead of where they were in 1960. Would you agree? Got any similar type guys that started their career as a backup(or 3rd down back) and ,......well somewhat similar to Tiki? Not exactly but does anyone come to mind?I was thinking maybe Garner, maybe Priest but those guys are(may be) done.
Tau837
Footballguy
There are probably very few, if any, players who have had careers that closely mimiced Tiki's (i.e., 5 years in limited role followed by multiple years as successful feature back). But here are some guys who had at least a couple of years as backups or part time players who emerged to be successful feature backs:Jamal Anderson
James Brooks
Ernest Byner
Larry Csonka
Stephen Davis
Charlie Garner
Garrison Hearst
Priest Holmes
Leroy Kelly
Joe Perry
Mike Pruitt
John Riggins
Gerald Riggs
Robert Smith
Jim Taylor
Chris Warren
James Wilder
Most of these guys had to wait about 2 years for their chance at the feature back role. None of these cases are useful in supporting a case that Tiki can continue to perform at an elite level going forward... which was exactly the point of David's post. What most Tiki supporters in this thread are basing their support on is continuing performance that would be unprecedented.
Koya
Footballguy
Did you miss the whole point of my post? It was about a (significantly big, granted) hypothetical where we assume Tiki has less wear and tear by 2-3 years, thus instead of being a RB that hits the wall at 28-30, he might be able to push it off until 32 or 33 years.With his current condition (in great shape, not much wear and tear, seemingly stronger each year), the hypothetical is to say - look, we have never had a guy that was sparingly used and then exploded on the scene like this later in his career.
If Tiki were 28 and not 30, what would your view be? Because he might have a "28 year old" RB body - one without significant injury or overuse.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
So if I had no carries until I was 35, would I be a 20-year-old RB in a 35-year-old's body?Let's try this again. I'm not saying Barber will wake up tomorrow and suddenly be unable to get 3 yards a carry. But it is very unlikely that he can keep up the 2,000 yard seasons for much more than another year.The "low mileage" angle can only be played so often (same with the "modern medicine" one). Players can only play for so long, and while Barber may have had limited use his first 3 years (I don't know why some have mentioned 5 years), he still has had an overloaded workloaded his last 4 years. He's now had 2,400+ touches, and that's still a lot and he's still now going to fall in the "over 30" category. He now is ranked 22nd for total career touches by a RB.Regardless of age or workload, it's also a bit presumptuous to simply give Barber any more 2,000 total yard seasons. He's now had 2 of them (admittedly back-to-back.) The only players to have at least 3 are Edge (3), Holmes (3), Faulk (4), Dickerson (4), and Payton (4).IMO, the deck is stacked that Barber is going to start slowing down productivity wise for a variety of potential reasons. There is a long list of players that have been 30+ and then seemingly git hurt when they never were or quickly started being less productive. The list of players like John Riggins is pretty short.In fantasy terms, only 2 RB 31+ have had 275+ points in a season. Only 12 have had 200+ points.Could Barber keep it up? Sure, I guess so. But I wouldn't put a lot of money on it. This is not to knock Barber, as he's been fantastic the past few years. But he's not getting any younger.
Tau837
Footballguy
So if I had no carries until I was 35, would I be a 20-year-old RB in a 35-year-old's body?Let's try this again. I'm not saying Barber will wake up tomorrow and suddenly be unable to get 3 yards a carry. But it is very unlikely that he can keep up the 2,000 yard seasons for much more than another year.
Did you miss the whole point of my post? It was about a (significantly big, granted) hypothetical where we assume Tiki has less wear and tear by 2-3 years, thus instead of being a RB that hits the wall at 28-30, he might be able to push it off until 32 or 33 years.
With his current condition (in great shape, not much wear and tear, seemingly stronger each year), the hypothetical is to say - look, we have never had a guy that was sparingly used and then exploded on the scene like this later in his career.
If Tiki were 28 and not 30, what would your view be? Because he might have a "28 year old" RB body - one without significant injury or overuse.
The "low mileage" angle can only be played so often (same with the "modern medicine" one). Players can only play for so long, and while Barber may have had limited use his first 3 years (I don't know why some have mentioned 5 years), he still has had an overloaded workloaded his last 4 years. He's now had 2,400+ touches, and that's still a lot and he's still now going to fall in the "over 30" category. He now is ranked 22nd for total career touches by a RB.
Regardless of age or workload, it's also a bit presumptuous to simply give Barber any more 2,000 total yard seasons. He's now had 2 of them (admittedly back-to-back.) The only players to have at least 3 are Edge (3), Holmes (3), Faulk (4), Dickerson (4), and Payton (4).
IMO, the deck is stacked that Barber is going to start slowing down productivity wise for a variety of potential reasons. There is a long list of players that have been 30+ and then seemingly git hurt when they never were or quickly started being less productive. The list of players like John Riggins is pretty short.
In fantasy terms, only 2 RB 31+ have had 275+ points in a season. Only 12 have had 200+ points.
Could Barber keep it up? Sure, I guess so. But I wouldn't put a lot of money on it. This is not to knock Barber, as he's been fantastic the past few years. But he's not getting any younger.
Again.
Tau837
Footballguy
Sure, there are a variety of reasons why these guys didn't sustain great performance into their 30s. Can anyone point out someone who did sustain great performance into his 30s that can justify some people suggesting Tiki has several thousand yards left in him? I don't think so. So that would be unprecedented, and, thus, extremely unlikely to happen. For the same variety of reasons.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
There have been only 10 RB that have TOTALLED 3,000 yards from scrimmage that were 31+ (to be clear, that is a cumulative total for ALL seasons from ages 31 on).Marcus Allen 5847John Henry Johnson 5571Emmitt Smith 4888John Riggins 4729Walter Payton 4499Tony Dorsett 4229MacArthur Lane 3876James Brooks 3780Franco Harris 3548Herschel Walker 3085IIRC, some in this thread were giving Barber a free pass to 6,000 more yards--which would give him the most total yards from age 31 on. Maybe he can do it, but I would think 4,500 would be a safer number to hang his hat on as a realistic ceiling for his cumulative numbers going forward.That would still give Barber 18,000 total yards, which for now would but him in the all-time Top 7 (although Curtis Martin would likely end up with more yards if he gets another 570 total yards).If he were to get 18,000 total yards, IMO, that would force us to rethink if Barber is HOF worthy--but let's see if he can get that. If he only gets 3,000 more yards, he would crack the Top 10 (for now) with some newer breed RB that could lap him in the next decade.
Tau837
Footballguy
18000 yards by itself would not get him in, as has already been discussed.He would still likely have only 3 Pro Bowls, and that's giving him one after this year. If he is All Pro this year, that will likely be his only All Pro selection.
He would still almost certainly be woefully low on TDs compared to his Hall worthy peers... he'll be lucky to break the top 40.
While with 18000 total yards he would probably be 7th in yards from scrimmage, he would probably "only" be in the 13-18 range in rushing yards when he retires, depending on where Dillon, James, Dunn, Alexander, and Taylor finish.
And he will become eligible after the likely inductions of Thurman Thomas, Emmitt, Faulk, Bettis, and Martin over the previous several years, but probably ahead of whoever makes it from the Tomlinson, James, Alexander age group.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
To play devil's advocate, Thomas ended up with 16,532 total yards and 88 total TD (albeit with 5 Pro Bowl selections). Basically, 3,028 more than Barber at this point.We theorized Barber gettting 18,000 total yards. He currently has 72 career TD. If he gets 16 more TD, he will equal Thomas' total. So would Tiki Barber with 18,000/88 be greater than Thomas at 16,500/88 (say with 2 Pro Bowl appearances)?Interesting question . . .
ThisGuy
Ignored by Nipsey
That was my point of the King post. Thomas did play for 4 SB teams but was never regarded as the best RB of his time. Much like Tiki, he was a threat running and receiving. Tiki is already a more prolific receiver.Is it that crazy to suggest that Tiki gets 1,450 yds rushing and another 500 receiving next year? Yes, the Giants will be playing a tougher schedule and I'm not suggesting he will produce this season's #'s again. But just because he will be 31 next year suggests he will drop off that much?
2,000 total yards next season should be about right for Tiki. He should also eclipse the 10,000 yard rushing mark and go over 5,000 yards receiving.
Off the top of my head, the ONLY other RB to do that is Marshall Faulk.
Again, if his career ended today, he's not in. 2 or 3 more SOLID seasons, and that may change.
Tau837
Footballguy
1. Thomas becomes eligible this year. As of right now, he is 8th in yards from scrimmage, 12th in rushing yards, and 27th in TDs. If Tiki plays 2-3 more seasons and finishes with 18000/88, that means 7-8 more seasons will elapse before he is eligible. By the time he becomes eligible, he will probably be 8th or worse in YFS, will likely not be in the top 15 in rushing yards, and will likely not be in the top 30 in TDs. Thomas will stack up better when he is considered than Tiki will, even if Tiki does end up with more yards and equal TDs.2. This is a minor point, but in the past 10 years, only 3 RBs have been inducted (Sanders in 2004, Allen in 2003, and Dickerson in 1999). This helps Thomas IMO. Compare that to Tiki. There will likely be 5-6 RBs that will have been inducted in the 10 years prior to him becoming eligible. That can't help him.
3. Thomas went to 5 Pro Bowls and was All Pro twice. This year will be Tiki's second Pro Bowl and may be his first All Pro selection. I doubt Tiki will close the gap here.
4. Thomas added another 2114 total yards and 21 TDs in his postseason career (21 games). So far Tiki has 450 total postseason yards and 1 postseason TD in 5 games. Sizable edge to Thomas that won't likely be closed.
5. Thomas played in 4 Super Bowls and his team lost each one. Tiki played in one so far and his team lost. Small edge to Thomas that won't be closed.
6. I know you sometimes use number of times in the top 5 as a measure. Using the categories posted at pro-football-reference.com, Thomas finished top 5 19 times, Tiki only 8 times. It isn't likely he will close this gap. However, maybe these aren't the same categories you use, not sure.
7. And, of course, there is the small matter of Tiki getting to 18000/88 in the first place, which many here seem to think is a given.
IMO Thomas is in. IMO Tiki is not and won't be.
Tau837
Footballguy
Thomas was one of the top 2 RBs of his time twice, since he was named to the All Pro team two times. Tiki has not made All Pro to date, though he has a good chance to make it this year.But I think maybe you're getting at the running aspect of being a running back. You are probably right that Thomas wasn't considered the best runner, but he is 12th all time in rushing yards, a mark Tiki will never reach. And Thomas had 8 straight 1000 yard rushing seasons. Tiki has 5 1000 yard rushing seasons. Thomas seems to be underrated as a runner today (not sure if he was when he played).
I'm not sure what you mean by more prolific. Tiki has more receptions and yards, but Thomas has nearly twice as many receiving TDs and averaged more yards per reception.
I happen to know Marcus Allen did it, also. Not sure who else. But the fact that Faulk and Allen are HOFers and Tiki is (possibly) the only other runner to do this doesn't justify Tiki as HOFer. (Not that you were saying that.) The rest of Tiki's resume pales in comparison to Faulk & Allen.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Those are the only 2 guys at 10000/5000 (so far).
rockbottom895
Footballguy
Tiki has no chance of becoming a HOfer, he isnt that special. He is having one of the best seasons of his life right now. If he continues to do this year after year, without the fumble problems, he very well could make the Hall of Fame
