Toby Gerhart - dynasty buy? (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

LeVeon Bell just went top 12-15 in my dynasty startup on the heels of a 3.5 YPC season. Sheer volume is really valuable, especially with guys who can also catch the ball.

Yeah...but it's hard not to immediately think of Trent Richardson when it goes like that.

Richardson was a top 10 PPR back in his rookie year. It's not a bad thing to have the unquestioned starter on a crappy team.

Like I've said before, if you limit your options only to elite backs on great offenses, your cheatsheet will have about 3-4 names on it every year.

 

[Bob Magaw]

There is no shame playing behind one of the greatest RBs in NFL history, but Gerhart's projection is complicated for a second contract vet by not having an extensive body of work on which to base an evaluation.

He has 276 carries for 1,305 yards (5 TDs) and 77 receptions for 600 yards (3 TDs) in four seasons.

For perspective, Ben Tate has 421 carries for 1,992 yards (10 TDs) and 58 receptions for 287 yards (0 TDs) in three seasons.

They have identical 4.7 yard per attempt averages rushing, Gerhart has been more efficient and productive in the passing game.

Because of his limited opportunities (only six starts in MIN, and none since 2011), it helps me to look at him through a scouting lens, almost as if he was a rookie. Despite the low volume, I find what there is to look at suggestive of a favorable projection.

He is 6'0" 230 lbs. and ran a 4.50 with a 38" VJ.

Carlos Hyde is the same size and ran a 4.61 with a 34.5" VJ.

Same with Jeremy Hill, who ran a 4.66 (?) with a 29" VJ.

Le'Veon Bell is 6'1" 230 lbs. and ran a 4.6 with a 31.5" VJ.

Eddie Lacy is 5'11" 230 lbs., a pulled hamstring prevented him from testing at the combine, but at his pro day, he ran about a 4.6 with a 32.5" VJ.

Gio Bernard at 5'8" 202 lbs. ran about a 4.5 with a 33.5" VJ, Tre Mason at 5'8" 208 lbs. ran a 4.5 and had a 38.5" VJ, and they were about 20-30 lbs. lighter than Gerhart at their respective combines.

I realize even great prep/collegiate production and stats don't necessarily translate, but for what it's worth, Gerhart has succeeded at every level, is third nationally in prep career rushing yards, and was involved in the closest Heisman vote ever. He is a good enough athlete to have been a highly regarded professional baseball prospect. He is also smart, class valedictorian, graduated from Stanford with a Management, Science and Engineering degree, and his 30 Wonderlic was the highest among RBs from his class.

When I watched him again, he was faster, quicker, more explosive and athletic than I recalled. While he is a somewhat linear runner with some upper body stiffness, and will never be mistaken for Barry Sanders (which may have been noted above), he does have some wiggle, agility and elusiveness for a RB with his size and power. He does have nice hands, which has been noted.

He does run a bit upright, so it remains to be seen if that will present a problem given a much heavier workload. He doesn't have the kind of suddenness or burst to consistently get to the edge, but he can be a handful for DBs to tackle if he breaks through to the third level (impressive contact balance and leg drive).

Health permitting (doesn't miss multiple games), I expect him to finish in the top 15-20 range with upside. If that transpires, he turned 27 less than three months ago. His tread left is comparable to a car that has only been test driven around the block a few times.

* I think he has superior physical tools and athleticism to Peyton Hillis, and Gerhart's talent will translate to being a better, more sustainable feature RB in the NFL.

 

[Leonidas]

LeVeon Bell just went top 12-15 in my dynasty startup on the heels of a 3.5 YPC season. Sheer volume is really valuable, especially with guys who can also catch the ball.

Yeah...but it's hard not to immediately think of Trent Richardson when it goes like that.

Richardson was a top 10 PPR back in his rookie year. It's not a bad thing to have the unquestioned starter on a crappy team.

Like I've said before, if you limit your options only to elite backs on great offenses, your cheatsheet will have about 3-4 names on it every year.

You didn't follow along.

I was responding to Bell this season, which would be like Richardson last season. Nobody wants Richardson last year.

 

[EBF]

Oh, I think Bell is pretty crappy and grossly overvalued in dynasty.

Personally, I don't see Toby as a lock to struggle though and don't really accept the idea that he's guaranteed to have a bad YPC just because it's the Jaguars and he's not a Pro Bowl monster. Seems to me that this supporting cast should be plenty good to yield a 3.8-4.1 YPC back, especially in 2015 if Bortles turns out to be a serviceable player and their young WR group pans out. I just think the idea that you need either an elite back and/or an elite situation to have a productive starting RB is not very accurate. In general, I've never been a big fan of the "this team sucks therefore I don't want their players" argument when it comes to WRs or RBs.

 

[Leonidas]

Oh, I think Bell is pretty crappy and grossly overvalued in dynasty.

Personally, I don't see Toby as a lock to struggle though and don't really accept the idea that he's guaranteed to have a bad YPC just because it's the Jaguars and he's not a Pro Bowl monster. Seems to me that this supporting cast should be plenty good to yield a 3.8-4.1 YPC back, especially in 2015 if Bortles turns out to be a serviceable player and their young WR group pans out. I just think the idea that you need either an elite back and/or an elite situation to have a productive starting RB is not very accurate. In general, I've never been a big fan of the "this team sucks therefore I don't want their players" argument when it comes to WRs or RBs.

I agree.

You keep repeating your point to me as though I disagreed with it or didn't understand it, and I'm not sure why.

I have my eye on Gerhart, MJD, Lamar Miller, JStew/DWill, and even Steven Jackson right now...their ADPs vary but none are particularly 'high' and some are quite low...yet all are or easily could be starting RB's.

 

[saintfool]

Oh, I think Bell is pretty crappy and grossly overvalued in dynasty.

Personally, I don't see Toby as a lock to struggle though and don't really accept the idea that he's guaranteed to have a bad YPC just because it's the Jaguars and he's not a Pro Bowl monster. Seems to me that this supporting cast should be plenty good to yield a 3.8-4.1 YPC back, especially in 2015 if Bortles turns out to be a serviceable player and their young WR group pans out. I just think the idea that you need either an elite back and/or an elite situation to have a productive starting RB is not very accurate. In general, I've never been a big fan of the "this team sucks therefore I don't want their players" argument when it comes to WRs or RBs.

i can understand it for some players but Gerhart is expected to be a 3-down back. what he may lose in rushing attempts, he will gain in receptions.

 

[tdmills]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/06/26/toby-gerharts-adp-runaway-train/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=toby-gerharts-adp-runaway-train

Many reasons to pump the breaks on gerhart

 

[saintfool]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/06/26/toby-gerharts-adp-runaway-train/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=toby-gerharts-adp-runaway-train

Many reasons to pump the breaks on gerhart

meh. the main takeaway from that, for me, is that his current value is "likely overpriced". those who picked him up off WW or in the early offseason at a discount are likely feeling better than those who are paying full price for a 3-down bellcow RB.

 

[MAC_32]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/06/26/toby-gerharts-adp-runaway-train/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=toby-gerharts-adp-runaway-train

Many reasons to pump the breaks on gerhart

meh. the main takeaway from that, for me, is that his current value is "likely overpriced". those who picked him up off WW or in the early offseason at a discount are likely feeling better than those who are paying full price for a 3-down bellcow RB.

...or if you bought while prices were low and had a quality RB stable already would be a great time to flip him for a profit.

 

[KellysHeroes]

There is no shame playing behind one of the greatest RBs in NFL history, but Gerhart's projection is complicated for a second contract vet by not having an extensive body of work on which to base an evaluation.

He has 276 carries for 1,305 yards (5 TDs) and 77 receptions for 600 yards (3 TDs) in four seasons.

For perspective, Ben Tate has 421 carries for 1,992 yards (10 TDs) and 58 receptions for 287 yards (0 TDs) in three seasons.

They have identical 4.7 yard per attempt averages rushing, Gerhart has been more efficient and productive in the passing game.

Because of his limited opportunities (only six starts in MIN, and none since 2011), it helps me to look at him through a scouting lens, almost as if he was a rookie. Despite the low volume, I find what there is to look at suggestive of a favorable projection.

He is 6'0" 230 lbs. and ran a 4.50 with a 38" VJ.

Carlos Hyde is the same size and ran a 4.61 with a 34.5" VJ.

Same with Jeremy Hill, who ran a 4.66 (?) with a 29" VJ.

Le'Veon Bell is 6'1" 230 lbs. and ran a 4.6 with a 31.5" VJ.

Eddie Lacy is 5'11" 230 lbs., a pulled hamstring prevented him from testing at the combine, but at his pro day, he ran about a 4.6 with a 32.5" VJ.

Gio Bernard at 5'8" 202 lbs. ran about a 4.5 with a 33.5" VJ, Tre Mason at 5'8" 208 lbs. ran a 4.5 and had a 38.5" VJ, and they were about 20-30 lbs. lighter than Gerhart at their respective combines.

I realize even great prep/collegiate production and stats don't necessarily translate, but for what it's worth, Gerhart has succeeded at every level, is third nationally in prep career rushing yards, and was involved in the closest Heisman vote ever. He is a good enough athlete to have been a highly regarded professional baseball prospect. He is also smart, class valedictorian, graduated from Stanford with a Management, Science and Engineering degree, and his 30 Wonderlic was the highest among RBs from his class.

When I watched him again, he was faster, quicker, more explosive and athletic than I recalled. While he is a somewhat linear runner with some upper body stiffness, and will never be mistaken for Barry Sanders (which may have been noted above), he does have some wiggle, agility and elusiveness for a RB with his size and power. He does have nice hands, which has been noted.

He does run a bit upright, so it remains to be seen if that will present a problem given a much heavier workload. He doesn't have the kind of suddenness or burst to consistently get to the edge, but he can be a handful for DBs to tackle if he breaks through to the third level (impressive contact balance and leg drive).

Health permitting (doesn't miss multiple games), I expect him to finish in the top 15-20 range with upside. If that transpires, he turned 27 less than three months ago. His tread left is comparable to a car that has only been test driven around the block a few times.

* I think he has superior physical tools and athleticism to Peyton Hillis, and Gerhart's talent will translate to being a better, more sustainable feature RB in the NFL.

didn't Hyde get injuried during his run which lead to the 4.60 plus?

 

[bigmarc27]

All I know is that I drafted him as a rookie (without Peterson on roster) and have been sitting on him since then. I'm on board the hype train...

1300 total yards and 10 TDs

Chooooo Choooooo!

 

[Bob Magaw]

KellysHeroes,

Hyde reportedly pulled up a little due to a hamstring before the end of the 40 (which may have been a 4.66). He did not try to better it at his pro day, but Mayock said he impressed and looked fluid catching the ball in field drills.

Eyeballing him, he looked similar to some of the recent big back cohort group from the past few drafts, he has fairly good speed for his size, similar to Hill, Lacy, Bell. I wasn't expecting him to run faster than them.

This wasn't a dis of Hyde (placing him with other recent young, successful RBs), who I like a lot, and would much rather have than Gerhart in dynasty. I was just trying to get a sense of how Gerhart's athleticism stacked up to some recent big backs (and even smaller ones, like Bernard and Mason).

 

[Skeletore Eh]

Toby Gerhart - RB - Jaguars
Toby Gerhart has a career yards-per-carry average of 4.4 against base defenses, and a 5.6 YPC against sub-packages.
Gerhart's career YPC of over 4.7 is inflated by his usage on passing downs in Minnesota, but he still has a successful track record against opponents that are lined up to defend the run. A mid- to late-round pick just over a month ago, Gerhart's Average Draft Position has soared into the early fourth round in June, and it's deserved. He's going to be the run-first Jaguars' bellcow runner.


Source: Mike Clay on Twitter
Jun 27 - 2:13 PM

 

[az_prof]

Footballguys ranks the Jaguars strength of schedule for RBs as one of the easiest in the NFL. Another reason to like Gerhart.

 

[KellysHeroes]

KellysHeroes,

Hyde reportedly pulled up a little due to a hamstring before the end of the 40 (which may have been a 4.66). He did not try to better it at his pro day, but Mayock said he impressed and looked fluid catching the ball in field drills.

Eyeballing him, he looked similar to some of the recent big back cohort group from the past few drafts, he has fairly good speed for his size, similar to Hill, Lacy, Bell. I wasn't expecting him to run faster than them.

This wasn't a dis of Hyde (placing him with other recent young, successful RBs), who I like a lot, and would much rather have than Gerhart in dynasty. I was just trying to get a sense of how Gerhart's athleticism stacked up to some recent big backs (and even smaller ones, like Bernard and Mason).

Thanks for the info, I thought Hyde was a 4.50ish guy when watching some of his tape.

those are impressive numbers by Toby

 

[Zyphros]

I like Gerhart for this season but I'm also extremely high on Storm Johnson and can see him eat into Gerharts carries this year if he can prove to pick up blitzs well enough

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Toby Gerhart - RB - Jaguars
Toby Gerhart "keeps coming up" in NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah's "talks with personnel guys around the league," who reportedly have "high expectations" for Gerhart in 2014.
Gerhart never got a chance to be a full-time starter behind Adrian Peterson in Minnesota, but did average a sterling 4.73 YPC with 77 receptions, and regularly replaced Peterson on obvious passing downs. At age 27, Gerhart is now in line to handle three-down bellcow work on an improving Jaguars team that intends to pound the rock. He's one of our favorite RB2 draft targets.


Source: Daniel Jeremiah on Twitter
Jun 25 - 2:05 PM

Reading through the last few pages, I think the information about personel guys around the league repeatedly having high expectations for Jacksonville RB Toby Gerhart to be very-interesting.

 

[karmarooster]

Toby Gerhart - RB - Jaguars
Toby Gerhart has a career yards-per-carry average of 4.4 against base defenses, and a 5.6 YPC against sub-packages.
Gerhart's career YPC of over 4.7 is inflated by his usage on passing downs in Minnesota, but he still has a successful track record against opponents that are lined up to defend the run. A mid- to late-round pick just over a month ago, Gerhart's Average Draft Position has soared into the early fourth round in June, and it's deserved. He's going to be the run-first Jaguars' bellcow runner.


Source: Mike Clay on Twitter
Jun 27 - 2:13 PM

For comparison, in 2013 Knowshon Moreno put up 4.5 against base, 4.3 against nickle, and 3.9 against dime. WIth Peyton Manning.

IMO Gerhart is easily going to be a top 10-15 back for the next 2, maybe 3 years based solely on volume of carries at a roughly 4.0-4.2 ypc, and as a great third down back adding 50 receptions. The question for his TDs depends on whether the Jaguars offense is anemic (fairly likely). If he has a Michael Turner-like opportunity to put up 10-15+ TDs a season, he's got top 3-5 potential. Just doesn't seem likely between Henne and Bortles to give him that many goal line chances.

Assuming Gerhart is top 10ish for the next 2 years, a 3rd year in decline and hits the wall quickly, how does his value compare to the likes of Sankey and Hyde? Old RB, with more certain production for a shorter time frame vs. 2 Young RBs, with greater uncertainty but a potentially longer useful-career?

 

[steveski]

Toby Gerhart - RB - Jaguars
Toby Gerhart has a career yards-per-carry average of 4.4 against base defenses, and a 5.6 YPC against sub-packages.
Gerhart's career YPC of over 4.7 is inflated by his usage on passing downs in Minnesota, but he still has a successful track record against opponents that are lined up to defend the run. A mid- to late-round pick just over a month ago, Gerhart's Average Draft Position has soared into the early fourth round in June, and it's deserved. He's going to be the run-first Jaguars' bellcow runner.


Source: Mike Clay on Twitter
Jun 27 - 2:13 PM

For comparison, in 2013 Knowshon Moreno put up 4.5 against base, 4.3 against nickle, and 3.9 against dime. WIth Peyton Manning.

IMO Gerhart is easily going to be a top 10-15 back for the next 2, maybe 3 years based solely on volume of carries at a roughly 4.0-4.2 ypc, and as a great third down back adding 50 receptions. The question for his TDs depends on whether the Jaguars offense is anemic (fairly likely). If he has a Michael Turner-like opportunity to put up 10-15+ TDs a season, he's got top 3-5 potential. Just doesn't seem likely between Henne and Bortles to give him that many goal line chances.

Assuming Gerhart is top 10ish for the next 2 years, a 3rd year in decline and hits the wall quickly, how does his value compare to the likes of Sankey and Hyde? Old RB, with more certain production for a shorter time frame vs. 2 Young RBs, with greater uncertainty but a potentially longer useful-career?

The problem is you're assuming that Gerhart is a top 10. You'd be crazy to prefer Hyde or Sankey over 2-3 years of guaranteed top 10 production. His production is not guaranteed and actually far from it. I really like Gerharts potential though and wouldn't be surprised to see him crack the top 10. I don't think his YPC will be anywhere what it was, but I see him with a lot of carries and above average on the TDs. Lots of goal line TD's.

The real comparison is 2-3 years of a somewhat known RB vs 5+ years of a complete unknown RB. It's a tough call which I'd prefer. It probably depends on how the rest of my roster looks. In a rebuild, I'd prefer Sankey and Hyde over Gerhart.

 

[Faust]

Making the Leap, No. 8: Jaguars' Toby Gerhart

 

[KellysHeroes]

What are people paying here in dynasty? I know he doesn't have much tread but the fact is hes old for dynasty RBs and next yr he'll be 28; in my experience getting a decent buck for a 28 yr old RB is very difficult. Unless he has a Charles like season I'm afraid whatever you pay for him this yr is just going to nose dive.

And I think history has shown that age is a bigger factor than tread, even RBs that get starting gigs late still off the cliff at 30.

 

[steveski]

What are people paying here in dynasty? I know he doesn't have much tread but the fact is hes old for dynasty RBs and next yr he'll be 28; in my experience getting a decent buck for a 28 yr old RB is very difficult. Unless he has a Charles like season I'm afraid whatever you pay for him this yr is just going to nose dive.

And I think history has shown that age is a bigger factor than tread, even RBs that get starting gigs late still off the cliff at 30.

He has 3 full seasons until he's 30. Even if falls off the edge of the earth then, it will be more than you can expect/hope for out of the majority of RBs in the league. I think he's a good asset to own unless you're in a full rebuild. Most young RBs you draft now you probably have to hold for a couple years to even know if they are going to get starting gigs or flake out.

I value youth a lot at WR because most really good WR's seem to play forever, but the rest of the positions I don't care quite as much, especially RB. RB's come and go like the wind. How many RB's stay RB1's or even RB2's for 4+ years?

I drafted him in the 8th of a startup, FWIW.

 

[EBF]

I was all set to take him in the 6th round of that 12 team startup that I mentioned earlier. I think if you look at what people are paying for other rentals like Peterson/Lynch/Forte, he represents a bargain in comparison. It's a little more of a leap of faith because we haven't seen him do it yet, but IMO he at least has the potential to produce on par with that trio and represents a nice "off brand" alternative that you can get several rounds later.

I think he's a player whose appeal will vary wildly depending on the composition of your roster. If you're going with a young team and you don't have immediate prospects, he's probably not the best acquisition for you. If I had him on a team like that, I would be looking to flip in the middle of the season to a contender. If you're right on the cusp of contending and you're looking for an immediate edge, I'd absolutely pay a late or maybe even a mid first round rookie pick.

 

[amnesiac]

i'd consider him a low end RB2 in redraft (with some upside.)

he's essentially an ignore for me in dynasty.

 

[amnesiac]

my concern in dynasty is even if he does produce this year he could easily be replaced next year by the Jaguars.

 

[KellysHeroes]

i'd consider him a low end RB2 in redraft (with some upside.)

he's essentially an ignore for me in dynasty.

i agree, he'll be a target for me in redraft

 

[mcd]

i'd consider him a low end RB2 in redraft (with some upside.)

he's essentially an ignore for me in dynasty.

I love him in Dynasty also. There are so many that think like you, his price is pretty reasonable. If he gives me 3 years I'm thrilled. There are very few backs that you can get reasonably that will be in play on all 3 downs plus goal line work. Unless things go bad for him he is almost assured of 250-300 carries, another 30-50 receptions and the goal line work. All this in an offense that is trying to mimic the Seattle, run you into the ground type play calling. The only thing I think that would keep him from a top 18 season is injury.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Gerhart has been compared to RBs like Peyton Hillis, but the GM Caldwell has compared him to Michael Turner (probably due to his size, speed, strength combo, as well as his delayed opportunity behind Tomlinson).

Turner was traded to ATL in 2008 at the age of 26, and played at a fairly high level for four seasons (he did miss 5 games in 2009).

Agree age tends to be more important than miles. Gerhart isn't likely to be a good candidate to flip for a high pick in a few years.

JAX could look to replace him next year (as ATL could have with Turner). Like Turner, if he does well, it may reduce the chance of that happening, and they could just work him like a rented mule for the next 2-3 years. JAX still has a lot of holes on their roster, so if RB isn't one of them, they may not prioritize the position for a few drafts.

 

[Bri]

A career stud that just barely lost the heisman and probably had grand visions in his head, was instead drafted to be a backup. He showed a great attitude and work ethic and ...quite frankly I loved him at Stanford and how he's reacted has just made me appreciate him more.

Not every RB can handle being a backup and some of their styles of play really don't lend to it. We see it often in older backs when we project them on a new team to become veteran depth and ...they're just not made for that. Many rookie RBs can't do well "now" and then "now" but instead need several carries to get going. It's a totally different mindset to be a backup RB. It's also different to be the Parcells-like third down back for the few teams that still use it as such. Sled dogs can't be the cat quick speed backs that flourish on screens and little curls over the middle.

Many people in this thread are acting like all RBs are interchangeable and they totally aren't. The best find a way and (I said earlier, my praise is high for him) I think Gerhart found a way. I didn't think he had backup in him and he did it pretty well.

Now we're back to what he does best though and there's surely a larger comfort level for him in this role. Defenses don't get the privilege of stopping him once and seeing him go to the sideline, but have to withstand a pounding from a tough RB.

I don't think you can go by his backup stats as a predictor of anything. A counter argument to all that could simply be what did he learn from ADP?

This was an awesome college RB that played an unusually difficult schedule and still flourished and now he's had years to glean some knowledge off one of the best ever, arguably the best ever.

It might be worth going back and reading the predraft articles. Or maybe the dozens of articles where he was potentially traded and would do well for the team that received him in trade. People (and seriously almost every writer) predicted success for Gerhart at some point.

This is somewhat rare in FF. We always have to have some backup schlub that this will be his chance to show the world what he really never has shown them, it's more of a maturation toward becoming a stud. With Gerhart, oh so many already characterized him as a stud RB at some point.

It's totally reasonable if writer X thought he'd be a great pro and thinks the years backing up ADP took away a window of opportunity, but I don't see much negative here otherwise.

Turner wasn't anywhere near as good as Gerhart in college. Lamont Jordan wasn't the predraft darling Gerhart was. Almost none of the RBs mentioned here were even half the player Gerhart was.

The NFL is a new league and all the players start on the same footing from the same point. That's a fair enough point. Some of the guys that didn't enter the league with a golden spoon in their mouth get to show the world how great they are and it doesn't matter if they had two TDs or 30 TDs in college. I understand that. We have this routine where we wait to see how they do. Wait to see if the NFL game is too complex or too fast for them. If they can learn an NFL offense and all of it's intricacies. If they can handle the fame and responsibility etc. Gerhart did, his game translated and he about answered every question with his play and wonderful attitude.

That PFF article bringing up that he was a 14th round FF pick before the trade....is a pretty useless point. Of course he was and ADPs new backup will be too. We expect a huge rise in draft stock when a player becomes a starter. I agree with the (differently worded) sentiment that MJD wasn't much MJD like in his older age and that Gerhart doesn't have much tread on his tires. That just proves they are quite dissimilar though. Maybe young MJD and Gerhart would have some similarities but that's not really discussed.

His ADP is proving either you believe he's a stud or you don't. You can't put one foot on this train or you'll get knocked off. The first time he's in a preseason game and does well, it'll rise again. He's not going to be available in the 8th round and I highly doubt he holds 5th round value in August. You will have to draft him as your 2nd RB. He will not be backup value that can cover a bye or possibly be an extra starter if your league allows. You've gotta decide if you're on board or not.

If he breaks 100 yards with a nice run in preseason...every fan will come out of the woodwork and his ADP could jump to be late second round. If he does it twice in preseason...who knows how high. This is not a hidden gem sleeper. He's very well known. You've gotta either jump on board or don't.

 

[Tick]

That's a lot to spit out, Bri, but worth the read - thanks for posting it.

 

[Bob Magaw]

One thing we don't know is if Gerhart can handle the punishment associated with the kind of (NFL) volume Turner handled for four seasons.

From 2008-2011, in 57 games, he rushed for 1,189-5,281-50.

I think the point JAX GM Caldwell made was that while some compare Gerhart to RBs like Hillis, he probably has more in common with Turner. While I think Turner was more explosive in his prime, I agree with Caldwell's point that Gerhart may have more in common with Turner than Hillis, and took it as a compliment (I'm guessing most Gerhart owners would have no problem if he approximates the "Burner's" four year production above).

 

[Biabreakable]

Gerhart is a better receiver than Michael Turner was. I do think they are of similar talent/ability as runners. It is a reasonable comparison of a good RB being drafted behind an established HOF caliber RB as Turner and Gerhart were.

Turner was a 5th round pick 154th overall. Gerhart was a 2nd round pick 51st overall.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Rotoworld blurb:

Beat writer Ryan O'Halloran projects Toby Gerhart to get just 12-15 carries per game.
O'Halloran is one of the top reporters on the Jags beat, so it's notable to pass this along. But we firmly disagree with his projection. Gerhart has the look of a Michael Turner or Marshawn Lynch kind of volume back in a ball-control scheme, will play all three downs and will face little competition from Jordan Todman/Denard Robinson. We believe the Jags will be markedly improved while facing a softer schedule in Year 2 of the Gus Bradley era, Gerhart's career YPC against base defenses is 4.4 and his measureables compare very favorably to Eddie Lacy's. Gerhart is far more likely to earn 300-plus carries than hover around 200. Jul 3 - 10:35 AM
Source: Washington Post

 

[steveski]

Rotoworld blurb:

Beat writer Ryan O'Halloran projects Toby Gerhart to get just 12-15 carries per game.
O'Halloran is one of the top reporters on the Jags beat, so it's notable to pass this along. But we firmly disagree with his projection. Gerhart has the look of a Michael Turner or Marshawn Lynch kind of volume back in a ball-control scheme, will play all three downs and will face little competition from Jordan Todman/Denard Robinson. We believe the Jags will be markedly improved while facing a softer schedule in Year 2 of the Gus Bradley era, Gerhart's career YPC against base defenses is 4.4 and his measureables compare very favorably to Eddie Lacy's. Gerhart is far more likely to earn 300-plus carries than hover around 200. Jul 3 - 10:35 AM
Source: Washington Post

Great, now Rotoworld is predicting Gerhart to be a workhorse. He's doomed. Looks like it's time to sell fellas.

 

[False Start]

Rotoworld blurb:

Beat writer Ryan O'Halloran projects Toby Gerhart to get just 12-15 carries per game.
O'Halloran is one of the top reporters on the Jags beat, so it's notable to pass this along. But we firmly disagree with his projection. Gerhart has the look of a Michael Turner or Marshawn Lynch kind of volume back in a ball-control scheme, will play all three downs and will face little competition from Jordan Todman/Denard Robinson. We believe the Jags will be markedly improved while facing a softer schedule in Year 2 of the Gus Bradley era, Gerhart's career YPC against base defenses is 4.4 and his measureables compare very favorably to Eddie Lacy's. Gerhart is far more likely to earn 300-plus carries than hover around 200. Jul 3 - 10:35 AM
Source: Washington Post

Great, now Rotoworld is predicting Gerhart to be a workhorse. He's doomed. Looks like it's time to sell fellas.

One second he is a work horse the next he is due to get 12-15 carries? Why does Rotoworld post beat writers opinions on these matters, its not news or info its just an opinion. They are guessing like anyone else, regardless of how much they see in practice they get a lot wrong. Really growing a big disliking for Rotoworld. Very little news and fact but a lot of opinion that does not help anyone, but instead hinders them.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Gerhart is a better receiver than Michael Turner was. I do think they are of similar talent/ability as runners. It is a reasonable comparison of a good RB being drafted behind an established HOF caliber RB as Turner and Gerhart were.

Turner was a 5th round pick 154th overall. Gerhart was a 2nd round pick 51st overall.

Good point about receiving ability, I was speaking to their respective rushing skills.

In his five years in a lead role for ATL ('08-'12), Turner's receptions totals - 6, 5, 12, 17 & 19.

In four years as a backup in MIN ('10-'13, 6 starts), Gerhart's reception totals - 21, 23, 20 & 13.

In terms of overall scoring (FBG), Turner was 2, 22 (11 games), 9, 6 & 18 (looked pretty shopworn that final season).

As far as pedigree, unlike Gerhart, we can just look directly at Turner's production in a feature role, and it seems safe to say he exceeded expectations based on his modest fifth round origins. It awaits to be seen if Gerhart's production in a featured role lives up to or even exceeds his loftier second round real estate and attendant expectations.

I've said elsewhere I expect Gerhart to be in the 15-20 range among RBs, with upside. Health permitting, I'll be surprised if he isn't at least a RB2, but he has some tough sledding to match Turner's production over the next three years (as you noted, Gerhart's hands should be at least a partial equalizer or potential compensating factor). To be fair, we need to account for the fact that Turner played on a pretty good ATL team, and JAX has been among the worst teams in the league in recent years*.

Do you see Gerhart matching or exceeding Turner's overall production/scoring in ATL, or if not, how are you projecting him?

* Comparing Turner and Gerhart's respective situations, ATL probably had a lot of leads in the second half and fourth quarter, which were conducive to grinding the clock with the run.

In 2013, JAX's first half of the season was brutal (0-8), but they showed some improvement in the second half (4-4).

In the first eight games combined, JAX was blitzed 264-86 (average margin of defeat - more than 3 TDs), in the last eight games, they were far more competitive on both sides of the ball, collectively nosed out 185-162 (average loss - less than a FG), yielding 79 less points and scoring 76 more.

 

[Biabreakable]

I haven't done projections for the Jaguars yet. I have some preliminary notes so far that's it. I am guessing that Gerhart will get over 250 rushing attempts possibly even over 300 if he is healthy all season. I think he can handle a 18-20/game pace. He fits their scheme well although I do not think he will get as good blocking with the Jaguars as he had with Minnesota.

As a receiver he is very good on screens so I could see him getting 2-4 receptions/game with some decent yardage added there.

I think he is a slightly better prospect for fantasy football than Turner was. I mainly brought up where Turner was drafted as a bit of a poke at the folks who dismiss players taken later on in the draft becoming successful. Turner is just another example of that. Incidentally Darrin Sproles was a 4th round pick. Maybe teams who have already drafted good RB are able to identify other good RB a bit better?

At the same time I think it is reasonable to show the distinction. If Turner had some of the skill set and college performance that Gerhart did, he likely would have been a higher draft pick than he was. I know many including myself believed in his talent despite the lower draft position at that time. I ended up trading him away for a 1st round pick before he moved on to Atlanta. In retrospect I may have been better off keeping him. I do not recall what I used the pick for.

I think Gerhart will put up better total yardage over the next 2-3 seasons than Turner did in his 1st 3 with Atlanta. Maybe not as many TD because it is not as good of an offense. The longer term concern I have is I am not sure how long Gus Bradley will be their HC. Nothing against him, he is just in a bad spot of a rebuilding team that may make changes at the top again soon. Based on them drafting Bortles and the 2 WR in the draft, maybe they will look for a more offensive minded coach next. So if a change does happen in 2015 or 2016? Then they may move on from Gerhart who will be getting older by that time. I think he is a pretty solid investment for the next 2 seasons at any rate.

 

[Bob Magaw]

As to why Turner wasn't drafted as high as Gerhart, going to a small school like North Illinois (?) may have had something to do with it.

Certainly it is a cliche that teams get it wrong at times (not that Gerhart shouldn't have been a second). Arian Foster, Priest Holmes, etc. went undrafted.

 

[cstu]

IMO LaMont Jordan is more likely than Michael Turner.

 

[cstu]

NAME POS YRs G RSH RSHYD YD/RSH RSHTD REC RECYD YD/REC RECTD FANT PT

Toby Gerhart rb 2010--2013 61 276 1305 4.73 5 77 600 7.79 3 238.5

LaMont Jordan rb 2001--2004 62 262 1277 4.87 10 50 417 8.34 1 234.4

 

[Bri]

One thing we don't know is if Gerhart can handle the punishment associated with the kind of (NFL) volume Turner handled for four seasons.

He does this dive forward at the end of runs that I really like. If you know you're going down, why not? I think that gets him an extra yard or two and stops defenders from unloading on him.

He's very patient and can be seen almost coming to a stop or down to a walking speed often. This concerns me.

I like that his goto move to protect the ball is two hands in front of his chest like I remember coaches preaching years ago. I think this causes his elbow issues though(they kind of stick out) and is why he wears elbow pads.

If you search "toby gerhart stanford highlights" at youtube, in the first five results you get stanford, vikes, and high school. With the vikes, you can see him go out of bounds and other times just go down. He still fights and battles but it's as if he's learned to "play another play" or you can get hurt.

He also doesn't take on as many defenders as he once did. He used to be like rookie Jeremy Shockey and looking for someone to go at, but now he runs on an angle to give a stiff arm.

Highlights are his best plays and not a full selection of plays...just some thought on injuries is all-this would be one way which I would guess he learned alot from ADP; there's a maturity there and since it's not really from experience I figure it's from being around ADP.

 

[az_prof]

IMO LaMont Jordan is more likely than Michael Turner.

Well, Jordan's first year as a starter in 2005 was actually pretty good from a fantasy standpoint:

1025 yards, 9 rushing TDs, 70 receptions and 2 receiving TDs.

He hurt his MCL in 2006 and was never the same.

 

[DropKick]

Toby Gerhart - RB - Jaguars
Toby Gerhart has a career yards-per-carry average of 4.4 against base defenses, and a 5.6 YPC against sub-packages.
Gerhart's career YPC of over 4.7 is inflated by his usage on passing downs in Minnesota, but he still has a successful track record against opponents that are lined up to defend the run. A mid- to late-round pick just over a month ago, Gerhart's Average Draft Position has soared into the early fourth round in June, and it's deserved. He's going to be the run-first Jaguars' bellcow runner.


Source: Mike Clay on Twitter
Jun 27 - 2:13 PM

For comparison, in 2013 Knowshon Moreno put up 4.5 against base, 4.3 against nickle, and 3.9 against dime. WIth Peyton Manning.

IMO Gerhart is easily going to be a top 10-15 back for the next 2, maybe 3 years based solely on volume of carries at a roughly 4.0-4.2 ypc, and as a great third down back adding 50 receptions. The question for his TDs depends on whether the Jaguars offense is anemic (fairly likely). If he has a Michael Turner-like opportunity to put up 10-15+ TDs a season, he's got top 3-5 potential. Just doesn't seem likely between Henne and Bortles to give him that many goal line chances.

Assuming Gerhart is top 10ish for the next 2 years, a 3rd year in decline and hits the wall quickly, how does his value compare to the likes of Sankey and Hyde? Old RB, with more certain production for a shorter time frame vs. 2 Young RBs, with greater uncertainty but a potentially longer useful-career?

The problem is you're assuming that Gerhart is a top 10. You'd be crazy to prefer Hyde or Sankey over 2-3 years of guaranteed top 10 production. His production is not guaranteed and actually far from it. I really like Gerharts potential though and wouldn't be surprised to see him crack the top 10. I don't think his YPC will be anywhere what it was, but I see him with a lot of carries and above average on the TDs. Lots of goal line TD's.

The real comparison is 2-3 years of a somewhat known RB vs 5+ years of a complete unknown RB. It's a tough call which I'd prefer. It probably depends on how the rest of my roster looks. In a rebuild, I'd prefer Sankey and Hyde over Gerhart.

I'd prefer Sankey/Hyde in any format. Age is a big factor to me and Toby, at 27, is the same age as Jonathan Stewart. I'll take a high profile rookie back with no concern of the "complete unknown".

 

[cstu]

IMO LaMont Jordan is more likely than Michael Turner.

Well, Jordan's first year as a starter in 2005 was actually pretty good from a fantasy standpoint:

1025 yards, 9 rushing TDs, 70 receptions and 2 receiving TDs.

He hurt his MCL in 2006 and was never the same.

I wasn't implying he wouldn't be good, just that Jordan is a more realistic outcome than Turner.

 

[Brewtown]

Many rookies drafted this year are better RBs and many think 2015 is even better for RBs. I would NOT pay big for him- he will be replaced.... Storm Johnson may be his replacement!

 

[Bronco Billy]

This is starting to sound eerily like Chris Ivory. If he just landed where he could be a bell cow, he'd turn into a real steal because of his innate natural ability. Ivory showed some very real flashes that sparked these hopes (which I admittedly bought into and ended up overpaying substantially now that we've seen it shake out).

Gerhart could be the real deal, but no one knows how he'll react to being the bell cow for a new team after getting a role in MIN that helped optimize his numbers. I can't help wondering if some other RB on JAX ends up being superior value. I've bought on Todman, not that I think he is a latent stud - far from it - but rather that his price is literally dirt cheap and he may be handed a good opportunity if the situation turns out to be more than Gerhart can handle. Johnson is just as intriguing at the price as a dice roll but I'm down on his ability.

 

[cstu]

This is starting to sound eerily like Chris Ivory. If he just landed where he could be a bell cow, he'd turn into a real steal because of his innate natural ability. Ivory showed some very real flashes that sparked these hopes (which I admittedly bought into and ended up overpaying substantially now that we've seen it shake out).

Gerhart could be the real deal, but no one knows how he'll react to being the bell cow for a new team after getting a role in MIN that helped optimize his numbers. I can't help wondering if some other RB on JAX ends up being superior value. I've bought on Todman, not that I think he is a latent stud - far from it - but rather that his price is literally dirt cheap and he may be handed a good opportunity if the situation turns out to be more than Gerhart can handle. Johnson is just as intriguing at the price as a dice roll but I'm down on his ability.

I like Denard Robinson.

 

[cstu]

Toby Gerhart: O'Halloran: Gerhart to get 12-15 carries/game Toby Gerhart - RB - JAC - Jul. 3 - 10:35 am et

The Florida Times Union's Ryan O'Halloran projects Toby Gerhart to get just 12-15 carries per game.

O'Halloran is one of the top reporters on the Jags beat, so it's notable to pass this along. But we firmly disagree with his projection. Gerhart has the look of a Michael Turner or Marshawn Lynch kind of volume back in a ball-control scheme, will play all three downs and will face little competition from Jordan Todman and Denard Robinson. We believe the Jags will be markedly improved while facing a softer schedule in Year 2 of the Gus Bradley era. Gerhart's career YPC against base defenses is 4.4 and his measurables compare favorably to Eddie Lacy's. Gerhart is far more likely to earn 300-plus carries than hover around 200. Jul. 3 - 10:35 am et

Source: Washington Post

 

[Bronco Billy]

This is starting to sound eerily like Chris Ivory. If he just landed where he could be a bell cow, he'd turn into a real steal because of his innate natural ability. Ivory showed some very real flashes that sparked these hopes (which I admittedly bought into and ended up overpaying substantially now that we've seen it shake out).

Gerhart could be the real deal, but no one knows how he'll react to being the bell cow for a new team after getting a role in MIN that helped optimize his numbers. I can't help wondering if some other RB on JAX ends up being superior value. I've bought on Todman, not that I think he is a latent stud - far from it - but rather that his price is literally dirt cheap and he may be handed a good opportunity if the situation turns out to be more than Gerhart can handle. Johnson is just as intriguing at the price as a dice roll but I'm down on his ability.

I like Denard Robinson.

He's as good a risk as any. I struggle with him because he made his bones in college when plays broke down and the D was scattered. He is great in chaotic situations with open field. But now he's being asked to play a different position and make plays in controlled situations. I'm wondering if his skill set transfers enough to be reliable in FF. But I wouldn't fault someone who sees his upside.

 

[lawrenceofbruno]

I just picked up Gerhart on a near minimum salary contract (3 yrs) for:

M.Colston, Khiry Robinson, Donald Brown and Dujuan Harris while saving nearly $10 million in cap space. Yep, I'm drinking the Kool Aid.