Tom Brady (1 Viewer)

[Kitrick Taylor]

Just took a look at what Peyton Manning has done in his career other than his 49TD season. TD passes thrown.

1998 26

1999 26

2000 33

2001 26

2002 27

2003 29

2004 49

2005 28

2006 31

2007 31

Since 2004, Manning hasn't thrown for more than 31TD passes, and has actually only done so one other year which was 33 in 2000. I would say these numbers were put up with a fantastic cast of offensive skill players and good offensive lines. This is not a rip on Manning. I think he's the best comparison we have both in situation and talent level we have for Brady.

Now Brady's TD numbers:

2001 18

2002 28

2003 23

2004 28

2005 26

2006 24

2007 50

It would seem that in all likelyhood, Brady's TDs will fall off greatly next season. I think Brady is still a good bet to throw for +/-30TDs if they are able to keep Moss, as he's a better weapon than Brady has ever had before. But is his cast any better than Mannings' was or is even today? Are teams going to adjust with a full offseason of tape, and force them to become a more convential offense? Will the Patriots decide themselves to become more of a balanced offense?

If you had a young stud QB already on your dynasty roster, a proven commodity like Palmer, Big Ben, Romo, Brees or maybe even Cutler, there may never be a better sell high than Brady is right now.

Thoughts?

 

[TheWick]

He will in all probability remain the #1 Fantasy QB for a few more years. Even with that said he could be a sell high simply because he is not going to duplicate this years output....probably

 

[hitmenssharpshooters]

Brady Sux

 

[switz]

He will in all probability remain the #1 Fantasy QB for a few more years. Even with that said he could be a sell high simply because he is not going to duplicate this years output....probably :IBTL:

Not according to polls on this forum.And when has he been the #1 FF QB before this season? Unlikely to repeat IMO.

 

[AnonymousBob]

He will in all probability remain the #1 Fantasy QB for a few more years. Even with that said he could be a sell high simply because he is not going to duplicate this years output....probably

Not according to polls on this forum.And when has he been the #1 FF QB before this season? Unlikely to repeat IMO.

He may not be likely to repeat, but he's going to amongst the top guys. Knowing that your player WILL be amongst the best is a good reason to pay a little extra...that's why LT went for #1 so many seasons even though prior to 2 seasons ago he had never finished as THE guy. Consistency isn't usually fully appreciated.

 

[Road Warriors]

He will in all probability remain the #1 Fantasy QB for a few more years. Even with that said he could be a sell high simply because he is not going to duplicate this years output....probably

Not according to polls on this forum.And when has he been the #1 FF QB before this season? Unlikely to repeat IMO.

He may not be likely to repeat, but he's going to amongst the top guys. Knowing that your player WILL be amongst the best is a good reason to pay a little extra...that's why LT went for #1 so many seasons even though prior to 2 seasons ago he had never finished as THE guy. Consistency isn't usually fully appreciated.

I see Brady with Moss as a possible QB1, likely top 3, a floor ( without injury ) of about 5. Not many QBs I'd consider ahead of him at this point. I think your expectations of 30+/- is solid. I'd put a TD range this season as 28-34 for my expectations, and I expect a general regression to the norm across the league on TD passes.

 

[switz]

He will in all probability remain the #1 Fantasy QB for a few more years. Even with that said he could be a sell high simply because he is not going to duplicate this years output....probably

Not according to polls on this forum.And when has he been the #1 FF QB before this season? Unlikely to repeat IMO.

He may not be likely to repeat, but he's going to amongst the top guys. Knowing that your player WILL be amongst the best is a good reason to pay a little extra...

I agree with that, I just don't see him staying #1... top-5 very likely. My issue was just with the OP saying he was likely to remain #1.

 

[AnonymousBob]

He will in all probability remain the #1 Fantasy QB for a few more years. Even with that said he could be a sell high simply because he is not going to duplicate this years output....probably

Not according to polls on this forum.And when has he been the #1 FF QB before this season? Unlikely to repeat IMO.

He may not be likely to repeat, but he's going to amongst the top guys. Knowing that your player WILL be amongst the best is a good reason to pay a little extra...

I agree with that, I just don't see him staying #1... top-5 very likely. My issue was just with the OP saying he was likely to remain #1.

Gotcha. I agree with you, I wouldn't bet he'll finish as te #1 again.

 

[David Yudkin]

Given that currently the starting WRs on the Patriots would be Wes Welker and Chad Jackson, it's kind of hard to project Brady's numbers for next year. Only 3 Pats WRs caught passes in 2007. And three of them could be free agents (Moss, Stallworth and Gaffney). Let's see who suits up first before we piece together some projections.

 

[Filthy]

Gotta wonder what effect his ego took in losing that Superbowl and the realization (if he wasn't already aware) that his 'genius' of a coach was stealing signals and telling him what to look out for. I think he's still a top 5 if and only if they keep Moss and Welker.

 

[Routilla]

Gotta wonder what effect his ego took in losing that Superbowl and the realization (if he wasn't already aware) that his 'genius' of a coach was stealing signals and telling him what to look out for. I think he's still a top 5 if and only if they keep Moss and Welker.

Agreed. If Moss leaves I would expect no more than 25Tds, if that.

 

[kethnaab]

Gotta wonder what effect his ego took in losing that Superbowl and the realization (if he wasn't already aware) that his 'genius' of a coach was stealing signals and telling him what to look out for. I think he's still a top 5 if and only if they keep Moss and Welker.

Brady knew all along that the signals were being stolen. Heck, Doug Flutie knew in his limited time there.Regardless, Brady is an excellent QB, and I'm betting he hits 4k/35ish next season, but then again, I'm betting that Hasselbeck, Brees, Peyton, Ben, Romo and Jay Cutler will be right on his heels. If Moss leaves and Stallworth stays, then snatch Stallworth up, he becomes a legitimate WR1.Watch Maroney run for 1500/12-15 next season.

 

[Mikey16x]

in my league that me and my buddies have seasonly... im not sure what it's called but we redraft every year. Im 100% positive he will go top 5.. and many leagues across the board will prob look like this

1 L.T

2 ADP

3 Brady

4 Sjax

5 Westbrook

if you think about it... if you had brady and missed your FF playoffs... you probably didn't start your full roster weekly... the guy carried one of my buddies teams by himself... in my eyes.. thats def top 5. The only other good players he has was like lendale white and plax...

granted our scoring system is crazy, we do a serious IDP....

 

[VonRomig]

Not really sure why you felt the need to compare Manning's TDs to Brady's when you're trying claim it's a good time to sell Brady. Other then showing that Manning never threw less than 25 TD's in 10 years, while Brady threw less then 25 of them 3 out of only 7 years.

I was lucky enough to find a buyer for Brady... I got Big Ben and Roydell Williams for him. Of course as a dislike Brady, I was willing to trade just about anyone for him, he just happened to be a the team I took over.

Von

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Gotta wonder what effect his ego took in losing that Superbowl and the realization (if he wasn't already aware) that his 'genius' of a coach was stealing signals and telling him what to look out for. I think he's still a top 5 if and only if they keep Moss and Welker.

Agreed. If Moss leaves I would expect no more than 25Tds, if that.

Brady threw for 24 in 2006 with Reche Caldwell, Doug Gabriel and a 35 year old Troy Brown being his top 3 WRs. Even if Moss departs, just having Welker there is an upgrade over 2006.Honestlly though, I am thinking bigger picture than the exact number of TDs he will throw. I am wondering if its gonna be another huge year 38+, or back to the pack with 28-32?

 

[SteelerMurf]

Gotta wonder what effect his ego took in losing that Superbowl and the realization (if he wasn't already aware) that his 'genius' of a coach was stealing signals and telling him what to look out for. I think he's still a top 5 if and only if they keep Moss and Welker.

Agreed. If Moss leaves I would expect no more than 25Tds, if that.

Brady threw for 24 in 2006 with Reche Caldwell, Doug Gabriel and a 35 year old Troy Brown being his top 3 WRs. Even if Moss departs, just having Welker there is an upgrade over 2006.Honestlly though, I am thinking bigger picture than the exact number of TDs he will throw. I am wondering if its gonna be another huge year 38+, or back to the pack with 28-32?

What do you mean back to the pack...he never threw more than 28 in a season before last. I think that stat is kind of stunning for a guy heading to the hall of fame.

 

[KellysHeroes]

After a player has a career high like Brady did... Its a good time to move him. Especially when that career high was record breaking and performed when the player is older. He will be LT2 after LT2 had 30 TDs... The year after LT2 was still top 5 back... But was also seen as a disappointment to some.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Gotta wonder what effect his ego took in losing that Superbowl and the realization (if he wasn't already aware) that his 'genius' of a coach was stealing signals and telling him what to look out for. I think he's still a top 5 if and only if they keep Moss and Welker.

Agreed. If Moss leaves I would expect no more than 25Tds, if that.

Brady threw for 24 in 2006 with Reche Caldwell, Doug Gabriel and a 35 year old Troy Brown being his top 3 WRs. Even if Moss departs, just having Welker there is an upgrade over 2006.Honestlly though, I am thinking bigger picture than the exact number of TDs he will throw. I am wondering if its gonna be another huge year 38+, or back to the pack with 28-32?

What do you mean back to the pack...he never threw more than 28 in a season before last. I think that stat is kind of stunning for a guy heading to the hall of fame.

I mean back to the pack with the rest of the QB options for next year. Guys like Big Ben, Romo, Palmer, Manning etc.I also don't think predicting 28-32 with Moss and Welker is a stretch. He's never had anything close to that kind of talent to throw to. I think that's his baseline moving forward.

 

[Obie Wan]

Given that currently the starting WRs on the Patriots would be Wes Welker and Chad Jackson, it's kind of hard to project Brady's numbers for next year. Only 3 Pats WRs caught passes in 2007. And three of them could be free agents (Moss, Stallworth and Gaffney). Let's see who suits up first before we piece together some projections.

Also have to see if the Pats will still be able to steal audio signals which allow Brady to have a huge advanatage.Without that, Brady won;t be anywhere near the top QB.

 

[PMENFAN]

Just took a look at what Peyton Manning has done in his career other than his 49TD season. TD passes thrown.1998 261999 262000 332001 262002 272003 292004 492005 282006 312007 31Since 2004, Manning hasn't thrown for more than 31TD passes, and has actually only done so one other year which was 33 in 2000. I would say these numbers were put up with a fantastic cast of offensive skill players and good offensive lines. This is not a rip on Manning. I think he's the best comparison we have both in situation and talent level we have for Brady. Now Brady's TD numbers:2001 182002 282003 232004 282005 262006 242007 50It would seem that in all likelyhood, Brady's TDs will fall off greatly next season. I think Brady is still a good bet to throw for +/-30TDs if they are able to keep Moss, as he's a better weapon than Brady has ever had before. But is his cast any better than Mannings' was or is even today? Are teams going to adjust with a full offseason of tape, and force them to become a more convential offense? Will the Patriots decide themselves to become more of a balanced offense?If you had a young stud QB already on your dynasty roster, a proven commodity like Palmer, Big Ben, Romo, Brees or maybe even Cutler, there may never be a better sell high than Brady is right now. Thoughts?

I think expecting any QB to throw for even 40 in a season is expecting an overly great season, regardless of what they did the previous year. That said, depending on the offense they instill, Brady is good for from about 35 to even breaking his own record. I say breaking the record, because if they bring back Moss, the offense will be intact, with the exception of Stallworth, which to me is a no brainer. A second year with Moss and Welker to foster chemistry? I could see the record falling. He'll throw a lot, and 35 is a lot, but beyond that we're looking at a crap shoot.

 

[PMENFAN]

Given that currently the starting WRs on the Patriots would be Wes Welker and Chad Jackson, it's kind of hard to project Brady's numbers for next year. Only 3 Pats WRs caught passes in 2007. And three of them could be free agents (Moss, Stallworth and Gaffney). Let's see who suits up first before we piece together some projections.

Also have to see if the Pats will still be able to steal audio signals which allow Brady to have a huge advanatage.Without that, Brady won;t be anywhere near the top QB.

So now intercepting the other teams OFFENSIVE audio signals somehow made Brady better? Are you Matt Walsh in disguise?

 

[Pat Patriot]

Given that currently the starting WRs on the Patriots would be Wes Welker and Chad Jackson, it's kind of hard to project Brady's numbers for next year. Only 3 Pats WRs caught passes in 2007. And three of them could be free agents (Moss, Stallworth and Gaffney). Let's see who suits up first before we piece together some projections.

Also have to see if the Pats will still be able to steal audio signals which allow Brady to have a huge advanatage.Without that, Brady won;t be anywhere near the top QB.

So now intercepting the other teams OFFENSIVE audio signals somehow made Brady better? Are you Matt Walsh in disguise?

All of you Pats Haters keep posting. You are giving me a good laugh.

 

[brednbuddah]

Given that currently the starting WRs on the Patriots would be Wes Welker and Chad Jackson, it's kind of hard to project Brady's numbers for next year. Only 3 Pats WRs caught passes in 2007. And three of them could be free agents (Moss, Stallworth and Gaffney). Let's see who suits up first before we piece together some projections.

Also have to see if the Pats will still be able to steal audio signals which allow Brady to have a huge advanatage.Without that, Brady won;t be anywhere near the top QB.

So now intercepting the other teams OFFENSIVE audio signals somehow made Brady better? Are you Matt Walsh in disguise?

All of you Pats Haters keep posting. You are giving me a good laugh.

I'm sure you could use one after watching your team choke away the Super Bowl.

 

[PMENFAN]

Given that currently the starting WRs on the Patriots would be Wes Welker and Chad Jackson, it's kind of hard to project Brady's numbers for next year. Only 3 Pats WRs caught passes in 2007. And three of them could be free agents (Moss, Stallworth and Gaffney). Let's see who suits up first before we piece together some projections.

Also have to see if the Pats will still be able to steal audio signals which allow Brady to have a huge advanatage.Without that, Brady won;t be anywhere near the top QB.

So now intercepting the other teams OFFENSIVE audio signals somehow made Brady better? Are you Matt Walsh in disguise?

All of you Pats Haters keep posting. You are giving me a good laugh.

I'm sure you could use one after watching your team choke away the Super Bowl.

Might have hurt more if they weren't going for their 4th in 7 years. See, that winning three sort of takes the sting out of losing one. Let's also not forget that we're Pats fans. Losing was the norm for most of tehir history. You think one more SB loss is going to hurt us? How many other franchises have won 3, or even been to 6. No shame in being a pats fan. I know, 18 wins, one giant loss. Lots of shame in being 18-1 and losing the SB. The goal is to win the SB, but rest assured, ther'es no shame in losing one either.

 

[BoulderBob]

It depends on the spread. If this is a new era in the NFL in regard to passing, these huge passing TD numbers could become the norm. It's been happening in high-school and college, so it wouldn't surprise me to see the spread start to take hold in the NFL...

I'm not sure "most" defenses will be able to stop this type of offense if propery implemented...I can't see selling as good move, unless you are getting a massive return...

 

[Popinski]

Given that currently the starting WRs on the Patriots would be Wes Welker and Chad Jackson, it's kind of hard to project Brady's numbers for next year. Only 3 Pats WRs caught passes in 2007. And three of them could be free agents (Moss, Stallworth and Gaffney). Let's see who suits up first before we piece together some projections.

Also have to see if the Pats will still be able to steal audio signals which allow Brady to have a huge advanatage.Without that, Brady won;t be anywhere near the top QB.

So now intercepting the other teams OFFENSIVE audio signals somehow made Brady better? Are you Matt Walsh in disguise?

All of you Pats Haters keep posting. You are giving me a good laugh.

I'm sure you could use one after watching your team choke away the Super Bowl.

Might have hurt more if they weren't going for their 4th in 7 years.

...or, more accurately, their first clean one in franchise history.

 

[brednbuddah]

Given that currently the starting WRs on the Patriots would be Wes Welker and Chad Jackson, it's kind of hard to project Brady's numbers for next year. Only 3 Pats WRs caught passes in 2007. And three of them could be free agents (Moss, Stallworth and Gaffney). Let's see who suits up first before we piece together some projections.

Also have to see if the Pats will still be able to steal audio signals which allow Brady to have a huge advanatage.Without that, Brady won;t be anywhere near the top QB.

So now intercepting the other teams OFFENSIVE audio signals somehow made Brady better? Are you Matt Walsh in disguise?

All of you Pats Haters keep posting. You are giving me a good laugh.

I'm sure you could use one after watching your team choke away the Super Bowl.

Might have hurt more if they weren't going for their 4th in 7 years. See, that winning three sort of takes the sting out of losing one. Let's also not forget that we're Pats fans. Losing was the norm for most of tehir history. You think one more SB loss is going to hurt us? How many other franchises have won 3, or even been to 6. No shame in being a pats fan. I know, 18 wins, one giant loss. Lots of shame in being 18-1 and losing the SB. The goal is to win the SB, but rest assured, ther'es no shame in losing one either.

whatever helps you sleep at night...

 

[Jason Wood]

Let's also not forget that Peyton Manning did NOT finish as the top rated fantasy QB in his 49 TD year (that honor went to Daunte Culpepper). In fact, Manning has only finished 1st ONCE in his 10 seasons (that was 2006); yet is almost always the 1st QB drafted.

Now, it also must be said that the REASON people justify taking Manning first even though he never finishes atop the rankings is because his DOWNSIDE is quite limited. After a 9th place finish as a rookie, he's never finished outside the top 4 in his career. That's unbelievable.

Assuming the Patriots retain Randy Moss' services, I think Brady becomes someone who, like Manning, has minimal downside and, therefore, will go quite early. And then, like Manning, it really becomes less a question of where Brady will rank and more a question of whether you're comfortable drafting a QB very early as part of your fantasy strategy.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Gotta wonder what effect his ego took in losing that Superbowl and the realization (if he wasn't already aware) that his 'genius' of a coach was stealing signals and telling him what to look out for. I think he's still a top 5 if and only if they keep Moss and Welker.

Brady knew all along that the signals were being stolen. Heck, Doug Flutie knew in his limited time there.Regardless, Brady is an excellent QB, and I'm betting he hits 4k/35ish next season, but then again, I'm betting that Hasselbeck, Brees, Peyton, Ben, Romo and Jay Cutler will be right on his heels. If Moss leaves and Stallworth stays, then snatch Stallworth up, he becomes a legitimate WR1.Watch Maroney run for 1500/12-15 next season.

What do you mean, "right on his heels"? Do you think those other qb's will throw for 30 or so td's?