Tony Gonzalez? Expect a further fade.... (1 Viewer)

[GRIDIRON ASSASSIN]

OLT Willie Roaf. He gone!

ORT John Welbourne. He gone!

FB Tony Richardson. He gone!

I fear Tony Gonzalez is gonna be a very expensive blocking fullback this year as Herm Edwards embraces the 13-6 defensive taffy pulls.

Thoughts?

 

[MLBrandow]

Agreed. However, Dunn and Gonzo are the best blocking pair of TEs in the league, and since they'll be running double TE all year, I see this as not too much of a downgrade.

I'd be more worried about them handing the ball off to LJ rather than having to block as being the primary culprit for his decrease in numbers.

add: you also misspelled expect

 

[joffer]

i'm not counting Roaf gone yet

 

[massraider]

i'm not counting Roaf gone yet

Me either. I'm a Raiders fan, and I am not that lucky.

 

[Jiggyonthehut]

While I agree with you both, whats to say that they wont use Dunn to anchor the weak side of the line and let Gonzo run loose? While you might point sections of last year as precedent, IIRC, Gonzo averaged more catches /yards/TD's over the second stretch of Roaf's absence. That being said, theres at least two TE's I'd rather take in redraft leagues.

How much was Dunn used last year (blocking-wise). If not much, then I fully expect Gonzo to outperform what many have listed.

 

[wannabee]

While I agree with you both, whats to say that they wont use Dunn to anchor the weak side of the line and let Gonzo run loose? While you might point sections of last year as precedent, IIRC, Gonzo averaged more catches /yards/TD's over the second stretch of Roaf's absence. That being said, theres at least two TE's I'd rather take in redraft leagues. How much was Dunn used last year (blocking-wise). If not much, then I fully expect Gonzo to outperform what many have listed.

I think that last year while Roaf was out, Gonzo stayed in to block

 

[GRIDIRON ASSASSIN]

I think Gonzo will be about the 5th best TE this season.

I can envision Gates, Witten, Shockey and Heap EASILY outperforming Gonzo in yardage/TD leagues.

Hell, last year he wasn't even Top 12 timber (1 pt for 10 yards and 6 pts per TD):

Gates, Antonio TE SD

Shockey, Jeremy TE NYG

Cooley, Chris TE WAS

Heap, Todd TE BAL

Witten, Jason TE DAL

Crumpler, Alge TE ATL

McMichael, Randy TE MIA

Stevens, Jerramy TE SEA

Miller, Heath TE PIT

Smith, L.J. TE PHI

Troupe, Ben TE TEN

Clark, Dallas TE IND

Gonzalez, Tony TE KC

 

[The Jerk]

"Further fade" implies a downturn from last year.

Gonzalez was 7th in FBG's stats, 20th in TDs but 2nd in yards AND receptions.

So the key aspect for Gonzalez seems to be his TD projection for 2006. My sense is that the consensus of the forums is that KC will score a slightly lower number of TDs as a team in 2006. Will the ratio of running to passing TDs remain the same? Will the distribution of passing TDs among the KC receivers remain the same?

I find it fairly likely that either the ratio of passing TDs increases or the number of passes to Gonzalez increases, but not to a very large degree. Defenses aren't surprised when Gonzalez is targeted in the red zone or on the goal line as much as they are for many other teams.

Summing it all up: I find it hard to believe Gonzalez will see only 2 TDs again in 2006. However, I find it hard to believe that number will rise beyond 5-6. Still, that's not a "further fade" unless his yardage total collapses.

 

[The Mechanic]

In my redraft league, no points for ppr, I had Gonzo on the field weekly as a WR3(no TE required). If ever I was dissapointed in a player or should I say with the way he was used it has to be him. BUT, I can't blame the play calling compleatly. On MORE than one occassion Gonzo dropped TD passes in the end zone that should have been a routine catch. There was one game where he had 2 in his hands and lost them. I realize he is a very good blocker and that is neccessary for QB protection and to help LJ get out from behind his line.

I hope I don't have to make that decission this year during our draft. With the coach saying we're going to run more I have more ammo to shy away.......

Still undecided....Roaf...Hopefully pre-season answers these ?.

 

[Warhogs]

I too am of the opinion that his receptions and yardage will be similar to last season but I expect his TD total to grow. I think he scores a few more fantasy points than last season with the TD increase.

 

[sholditch]

Gonzo did go to Herm or the new OC and ask for more redzone opportunities. If that makes a difference at all.

 

[GRIDIRON ASSASSIN]

"Further fade" implies a downturn from last year.Gonzalez was 7th in FBG's stats, 20th in TDs but 2nd in yards AND receptions.So the key aspect for Gonzalez seems to be his TD projection for 2006. My sense is that the consensus of the forums is that KC will score a slightly lower number of TDs as a team in 2006. Will the ratio of running to passing TDs remain the same? Will the distribution of passing TDs among the KC receivers remain the same?I find it fairly likely that either the ratio of passing TDs increases or the number of passes to Gonzalez increases, but not to a very large degree. Defenses aren't surprised when Gonzalez is targeted in the red zone or on the goal line as much as they are for many other teams.Summing it all up: I find it hard to believe Gonzalez will see only 2 TDs again in 2006. However, I find it hard to believe that number will rise beyond 5-6. Still, that's not a "further fade" unless his yardage total collapses.

Jerk, I agree with you. I shouldn't have inferred that he'd have a further slide from last year's numbers, but a slide as one of the top TEs in Fantasy Football. There's no way he's a #1 or #2 as most FF cheat sheets have him (with Antonio Gates).

 

[FTRWRTR]

While I agree with you both, whats to say that they wont use Dunn to anchor the weak side of the line and let Gonzo run loose? While you might point sections of last year as precedent, IIRC, Gonzo averaged more catches /yards/TD's over the second stretch of Roaf's absence. That being said, theres at least two TE's I'd rather take in redraft leagues.

IIRC tony richardson came back from injury...I've said it before and I'll say it again, last year was the beginning of the end as far as gonzo being an elite te. I don't know if his numbers will decrease but I don't think we'll see a marked improvement overall this season.

 

[The Jerk]

"Further fade" implies a downturn from last year.Gonzalez was 7th in FBG's stats, 20th in TDs but 2nd in yards AND receptions.So the key aspect for Gonzalez seems to be his TD projection for 2006. My sense is that the consensus of the forums is that KC will score a slightly lower number of TDs as a team in 2006. Will the ratio of running to passing TDs remain the same? Will the distribution of passing TDs among the KC receivers remain the same?I find it fairly likely that either the ratio of passing TDs increases or the number of passes to Gonzalez increases, but not to a very large degree. Defenses aren't surprised when Gonzalez is targeted in the red zone or on the goal line as much as they are for many other teams.Summing it all up: I find it hard to believe Gonzalez will see only 2 TDs again in 2006. However, I find it hard to believe that number will rise beyond 5-6. Still, that's not a "further fade" unless his yardage total collapses.

Jerk, I agree with you. I shouldn't have inferred that he'd have a further slide from last year's numbers, but a slide as one of the top TEs in Fantasy Football. There's no way he's a #1 or #2 as most FF cheat sheets have him (with Antonio Gates).

Thanks for clarifying. I'm with you in thinking there's no way he's clearly a notch ahead of all TEs not named Gates. Yet it wouldn't be too shocking to see him end up 2nd at the end of the season. I just don't think you'll get much value in drafting him because name recognition and/or people writing off last year as an aberration will see him drafted fairly close to his draft position last year in most leagues.

 

[cracKer]

KC Chiefs w/ Willie Roaf (10 games):

1. W 27-7, 34-198-3, 26 15 200 1/9 0 37 1 66.2

6. W 28-21, 32-96-1, 25 15 181 1/3 1 60 0 95.6

7. W 30-20, 45-185-3, 34 20 289 2/12 0 50 0 86.5

8. L 28-20, 21-95-0, 43 31 347 4/24 2 36 0 111.3

12. W 26-16, 37-112-1, 26 19 323 2/15 1 52 0 127.6

13. W 31-27, 37-168-2, 23 16 253 0/0 2 54 2 98.6

14. L 31-28, 28-161-3, 32 20 340 2/8 1 47 0 108.9

15. L 27-27, 34-188-2, 28 15 176 1/2 0 25 1 58.0

16. W 20-7, 37-144-1, 35 19 207 2/10 2 42 0 91.0

17. W 37-3, 32-202-3, 29 23 344 2/9 1 55 0 127.6

Record: 7-3, average 27.4 points

Rushing: 337-1549 (4.60) - 19 TDs

Passing: 193/289 (.67) - 2660 (9.2), 10 TDs/4 INT, 17 sacks

KC Chiefs w/o Willie Roaf (6 games):

2. W 23-17, 36-125-2, 28 18 237 1/8 0 49 0 90.9

3. L 30-10, 22-74-0, 44 23 221 2/10 1 26 0 74.1

4. L 37-31, 27-144-1, 30 19 221 3/12 2 49 2 80.0

9. W 27-23, 24-114-2, 35 22 235 3/28 1 36 0 92.0

10. L 14-3, 32-150-0, 40 23 220 6/54 0 20 3 41.7

11. W 45-17, 42-226-2, 29 19 220 0/0 3 26 1 108.4

Record: 3-3, average 23.2 points

Rushing: 183-833 (4.55) - 7 TDs

Passing: 124/206 (.60) - 1354 (6.6), 7 TDs/6 INT, 15 sacks

...with Willie Roaf out of the lineup (6 games), Gonzalez posted 55 targets with 34 receptions and 327 yards. His YPC and TDs were cut dramatically compared to his career averages, but his overall numbers during those six games were very respectable. extrapolated: 147 targets, 90-872

 

[The Jerk]

KC Chiefs w/ Willie Roaf (10 games):1. W 27-7, 34-198-3, 26 15 200 1/9 0 37 1 66.2 6. W 28-21, 32-96-1, 25 15 181 1/3 1 60 0 95.6 7. W 30-20, 45-185-3, 34 20 289 2/12 0 50 0 86.5 8. L 28-20, 21-95-0, 43 31 347 4/24 2 36 0 111.3 12. W 26-16, 37-112-1, 26 19 323 2/15 1 52 0 127.6 13. W 31-27, 37-168-2, 23 16 253 0/0 2 54 2 98.6 14. L 31-28, 28-161-3, 32 20 340 2/8 1 47 0 108.9 15. L 27-27, 34-188-2, 28 15 176 1/2 0 25 1 58.0 16. W 20-7, 37-144-1, 35 19 207 2/10 2 42 0 91.0 17. W 37-3, 32-202-3, 29 23 344 2/9 1 55 0 127.6 Record: 7-3, average 27.4 pointsRushing: 337-1549 (4.60) - 19 TDsPassing: 193/289 (.67) - 2660 (9.2), 10 TDs/4 INT, 17 sacksKC Chiefs w/o Willie Roaf (6 games):2. W 23-17, 36-125-2, 28 18 237 1/8 0 49 0 90.9 3. L 30-10, 22-74-0, 44 23 221 2/10 1 26 0 74.1 4. L 37-31, 27-144-1, 30 19 221 3/12 2 49 2 80.0 9. W 27-23, 24-114-2, 35 22 235 3/28 1 36 0 92.0 10. L 14-3, 32-150-0, 40 23 220 6/54 0 20 3 41.7 11. W 45-17, 42-226-2, 29 19 220 0/0 3 26 1 108.4 Record: 3-3, average 23.2 pointsRushing: 183-833 (4.55) - 7 TDsPassing: 124/206 (.60) - 1354 (6.6), 7 TDs/6 INT, 15 sacks...with Willie Roaf out of the lineup (6 games), Gonzalez posted 55 targets with 34 receptions and 327 yards. His YPC and TDs were cut dramatically compared to his career averages, but his overall numbers during those six games were very respectable. extrapolated: 147 targets, 90-872

I see rushing TDs went down from 1.90 to 1.17 per game, sacks went up from 1.7 to 2.5 per game, and passing yards went down from 266 ypg to 226 yards per game with Roaf out of the lineup.Now, there could need to be some normalizing of the numbers and it's not a huge sample set, plus it takes time to develop offensive line continuity. However, this certainly supports the belief that Roaf's absence would necessitate a 10-20% decrease in Larry Johnson's numbers.However, there could be some double-dippiing here unless you look below the surface. Johnson's workload late last year correlated with Roaf's presence in the lineup. So if a decrease in per game production has already been accounted for in LJ's projections, then the reduction purely due to Roaf's absence is more like 5-10%.Thanks cracKer. I understand this thread is about Tony G, but it's still interesting and perhaps LJ's decrease in TDs would translate to increased passing TDs and therefore an uptick for Tony.

 

[cracKer]

I see rushing TDs went down from 1.90 to 1.17 per game, sacks went up from 1.7 to 2.5 per game, and passing yards went down from 266 ypg to 226 yards per game with Roaf out of the lineup.Now, there could need to be some normalizing of the numbers and it's not a huge sample set, plus it takes time to develop offensive line continuity. However, this certainly supports the belief that Roaf's absence would necessitate a 10-20% decrease in Larry Johnson's numbers.However, there could be some double-dippiing here unless you look below the surface. Johnson's workload late last year correlated with Roaf's presence in the lineup. So if a decrease in per game production has already been accounted for in LJ's projections, then the reduction purely due to Roaf's absence is more like 5-10%.Thanks cracKer. I understand this thread is about Tony G, but it's still interesting and perhaps LJ's decrease in TDs would translate to increased passing TDs and therefore an uptick for Tony.

There are some obvious factors that haven't included, like the talent of the teams that were played with and without Roaf, but the raw numbers show that their offense certainly dropped off some with Roaf out of the lineup. These games w/o Roaf are only games that he was declared inactive, so I'm not sure how many of these other games he played in and was removed, played injured, had little impact, etc.All in all, if Gonzalez was forced to stay in and block more with Willie Roaf out of the lineup, it didn't show in his overall production (outside of TDs)

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Gridiron, is that bucket of chicken in your avatar??

 

[BigRed]

I shouldn't have inferred that he'd have a further slide from last year's numbers, but a slide as one of the top TEs in Fantasy Football. There's no way he's a #1 or #2 as most FF cheat sheets have him (with Antonio Gates).

grid I think "no way" is pushing it a bit but agree it's likely. The trick is knowing who will be that #2 (IMO it's Heap but anyway.....). I think Gonzo sees a few more TDs, a bit less yardage. 700-800/5ish would be my ballpark.

 

[GRIDIRON ASSASSIN]

Gridiron, is that bucket of chicken in your avatar??

There's no stopping the spinnin' bucket !!!!!And it ain't even spinnin' !!!!

http://www.crazy-avatars.com/avatars/tv/1238.gif

 

[red]

i don't have the stats in front of me, but TG numbers when roaf was out last year are bad...something like 2 TDs and a bunch of games where he gets 2, 5-yard receptions....however, LJs numbers in those games (excluding the first half dozen or so when priest was in as well) are great...i suspect, TG will be blocking more....

 

[massraider]

Less passing from a Herm-led team

Loss of Welbourn and possibly Roaf

Depth at TE in fantasy this year.

That's why I think Gonzo isn't worth a super high pick. I still think he'll have a fine season, but I don't think he'll be head and shoulder above most TE's this year.

BTW, it's no myth that Gonzo stayed in to block when Roaf was out. He sacrificed quite a bit, stats-wise, it's well-documented. If Roaf is gone, concern is warranted.

 

[cracKer]

BTW, it's no myth that Gonzo stayed in to block when Roaf was out. He sacrificed quite a bit, stats-wise, it's well-documented. If Roaf is gone, concern is warranted.

That stats don't lie, he had an incredible amount of targets during the games that Roaf was out. That's not to say that he didn't stay in and block, but he certainly made up for it when he was allowed to run routes.Is there any difference in 100 routes/25 targets and 50 routes/25 targets?

 

[MLBrandow]

It seems like everyone here is in general agreement, which is nice.

He's not worth a reach, but I honestly have not seen many reaching for him this year (4th at the earliest).

I think he's going about where he should go.